CREDIT

MARKET
INDICATOR
A comprehensive measure
of retail lending health trends

July 2023
CONTENT
→ Executive Summary
→ Overall Credit Market Conditions
→ Demand and Supply Trends
→ Changes in Consumer Behavior
and Credit Performance

2
 OVERALL
CREDIT
MARKET
CONDITIONS
3
Retail Credit Continues on its
High Growth Trajectory

Improvement in demand and supply Credit Market Indicator (CMI)

• Growth momentum of retail credit remained high in India’s consumer 120
credit market during the first quarter of 2023.
110 105
• Credit demand remained robust, growing across almost 102
all product types 100

CMI Value
94
94
90
86
Steady portfolio growth 80
• Unsecured credit portfolios continue to scale growth backed by 70
small-ticket loans
60
• Portfolio performance continues to improve with

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23
Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
delinquencies being to be lower than previous period

March 2023 CMI value is provisional and subject to revision as additional data get
reported to the TransUnion CIBIL credit bureau.

4
Balance level serious delinquencies improved
across most product categories

CMI by Lender Category

Key Metric for 3M Ended Mar - 2023
130
PSU PVT
Metric NBFC 120
Banks Banks
Accounts 110 104
Disbursed (YoY) 15% 7% 20% 108
98 103
100
96

CMI Value
Amount 26% 9% 20% 95 97
90 95
Disbursed (YoY)
85
Outstanding 80
17% 21% 29%
Balances (YoY) 70
Balance Level
-34 bps -44 bps -100 bps 60
90+ DPD (YoY)
50

Mar-21

Jun-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Jun-22

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23
PSU PVT NBFC

5
Credit growth improved across all major states

Mar’23 CMI
Mar-2023: YoY Change in CMI for Top 12 States
by State
12

Change in CMI (points)

9 9
8
8 7 7
6 6 6
5 5

4 3 3
Legend:
>= 103
0
102 – 102 MH TN KA GJ UP TS AP RJ KL MP HR DL
90 – 101
Portfolio < 1% MH: Maharashtra; TN: Tamil Nadu; KA: Karnataka; GJ: Gujarat; UP: Uttar Pradesh; TS: Telangana;
AP: Andhra Pradesh; RJ: Rajasthan; KL: Kerala; MP: Madhya Pradesh; DL: Delhi; HR: Haryana;
Map not to scale
Top 12 states selected basis size of retail lending portfolio

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 6

DEMAND
AND
SUPPLY
TRENDS
7
Credit demand in the quarter ending March 2023
remained robust, growing across
almost all product types

CMI Demand
240

Inquiry volumes continue to grow month over month through 200

March 2023, resultant of consistent demand increase driven

CMI Value
160
by personal loans, consumer durable loans and credit cards
120 99 100

80 97

40

Mar-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Dec-22

Mar-23
Jun-21

Sep-21

Jun-22

Sep-22
Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 8
Credit growth remained robust with younger consumers
driving demand, Semi-urban and Rural Consumers
share continue to rise

Inquiry Volumes
Q1 2023 vs
% Share Q1 2022 240
202
Semi-urban and 200
50% +2%
Rural Consumers

Indexed Values
160 141
Younger
40% +2% 120 103
Consumers
80
New-to-Credit 18% -2%
Consumers 40

Prime 0
34% +2%
Consumers

Mar-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Dec-22

Mar-23
Jun-21

Sep-21

Jun-22

Sep-22
Index: Jan-20 = 100

CreditVision (CV) score ranges are: Below Prime = 300-730; Younger Consumers - 18-30 years

Source: TransUnion CIBIL 9

Consumption-led products continue its trajectory
with robust YoY growth

Inquiry Volumes by Product Type

3M Ended-Mar 2022 3M Ended-Mar 2023
100% 93%

80%
70%
YoY Growth Rate

60% 52%
43% 42%
40% 33%
30%
24% 26%
22%
20%
11% 9% 10%
6%

0%
Home Loan LAP Auto Loan Two Wheeler Personal Loan Credit Consumer
Loan Card Durable Loan

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 10

 Share of young consumers, rural and semi-urban
borrowers continue to rise

Inquiry Volumes by Consumer Age Inquiry Volumes by City Tier

(3M Ended Period) (3M Ended Period)

100% 100%
22% 19% 17% 46+ Metro
33% 32% 30%
80% 80%
% of Inquiries

% of Inquiries
43% Urban
60% 43% 60% 21% 21%
45% 31-45 21%

40% 40% Semi-urban

26% 27%
25%

20% 38% 40% 20%

33% 18-30
20% 21% 23% Rural
0% 0%
Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 11

Credit supply for most credit products
are exhibiting double-digit growth

YoY Growth in Originations

(3M ended Mar-2023) CMI Supply
240
Product Volume Value
200
Home Loan -11% 0%

CMI Value
LAP 2% 9% 160

Auto Loan 13% 26% 120 100 95

Two Wheeler Loan 25% 39% 117
80
Personal Loan 21% 13%
40
Credit Card 11% -

Mar-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Dec-22

Mar-23
Jun-21

Sep-21

Jun-22

Sep-22
Consumer Durable Loan 15% 11%

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 12

Originations continues to remain buoyant;
significant opportunity exists in New to Credit
segment given the large young population

Origination Volumes
Q1 2023 vs
% Share Q1 2022 200

167 185
Semi-urban and
59% +1% 160
Rural Consumers

Indexed Values
Younger 120 107
31% 0%
Consumers
80
New-to-Credit 16% -3%
Consumers 40

Prime
38% +4% 0
Consumers

Mar-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Dec-22

Mar-23
Jun-21

Sep-21

Jun-22

Sep-22
Index: Jan-20 = 100

CreditVision (CV) score ranges are: Below Prime = 300–730; Younger Consumers – 18-30 years

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 13

 Approval rates continued to be lower compared to the same
time prior year across all loan types

Approval Rates by Product Type

3M Ended Mar-22 3M Ended Mar-23

100%
% of Matched Inquiries

80%

60% 53%
43% 43% 45%
40% 39%
40%
27% 30%
25% 26% 26% 25%
20% 21%
20%

0%
Home Loan LAP Auto Loan Two Wheeler Personal Loan Credit Consumer
Loan Card Durable Loan

Approval rate is calculated as the percentage of accounts which were opened within the next 90 days of the enquiry for home loans, commercial vehicle,
construction equipment and education loans; (enquiry Month - Oct,Nov,Dec); and within the next 30 days of enquiry for all other loans.
(Enquiry month - Dec,Jan,Feb)

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 14

Consumption-led products continue to show double digit
year on year growth on the back of a robust growth last year
Origination Volumes by Product Type
3M Ended-Mar 2022 3M Ended-Mar 2023

150% 143%

100%
YoY Growth Rate

71%

50%
25% 21% 25%
11% 14% 13% 11% 15%
2% 4% 0%
0%

-11%

-50%
Home Loan LAP Auto Loan Two Wheeler Personal Loan Credit Consumer
Loan Card Durable Loan

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 15

 Consumers in 31-45 age are the largest segment in origination

Origination by Consumer Age Origination by City Tier

(3M Ended Period) (3M Ended Period)

100% 100%

24% 24% 23% 23% 22%

27% 46+ Metro
80% 80%
% of Consumers

% of Consumers
19% 19% 19%
60% 60% Urban
44% 45%
46% 31-45
32% 32% 32%
40% 40%
Semi-urban

20% 20%
27% 32% 31% 26% 26% 27%
18-30 Rural
0% 0%
Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 16

Share of new-to-credit (NTC) consumers consistently dropping over
the period as lender’s adopt cautious onboarding for this segment

Approval Rates by ETC/NTC

Origination Volume by Risk Tier (3M Ended Period)
(3M Ended Period)
ETC NTC
100%
40%
23% 19% 16% NTC
34%
80% 29%
15% 16%

Approval Rate (%)

% of Consumers

30% 32% 26%

17% Above
60% prime 28%
34% 38% 20%
33% 23%
40% Prime

20% 10%
27% 32% 30% Below
prime
0% 0%
Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23
CreditVision (CV) score ranges are: Subprime = 300-680; Near prime = 681-730;
Prime = 731-770; Prime plus = 771-790; Super prime = 791-900

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 17

 CREDIT
PERFORMANCE
AND CHANGES
IN CONSUMER
BEHAVIOR
18
Portfolio balances continue to grow across products
with improvement in credit activity as well as
positive lender sentiments

YoY Growth in Outstanding

Balances (Mar-2023)
CMI Consumer Behavior
Product Value
120
Home Loan 14% 109

LAP 38% 96

CMI Value
100

Auto Loan 26%

80
Two Wheeler Loan 31% 80

Personal Loan 29%

Credit Card 34% 60

Mar-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Dec-22

Mar-23
Jun-21

Sep-21

Jun-22

Sep-22
Consumer Durable Loan 33%

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 19

Strong growth in credit active consumers since last year; young
consumers offer a good opportunity to increase credit penetration

Growth in Credit Active Consumers Credit Penetration by Consumer Age

20% 40%

% of Adult Population
29%
15% 30%
YoY Growth Rate

14% 22%
13%
12%
10% 20% 23%
18%
9%
14%
5% 10%
10%

0% 0%
Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23

Credit penetration is the percentage of credit active population to the total

18-30 31-45 46+
adult population
Source: TransUnion CIBIL,
World Bank Database

20
 Share of prime and above has increased; higher upgrades in the
near prime segment indicating improved consumer behavior

Consumer Distribution by Risk Tier Near Prime Segment 12 Month

Score Migration
100%
5% 6% 6% 100%
14% 14% 15%
80% Super prime 80%
33% 34% 38%
% of Consumers

% of Consumers
29% 30% 33% Prime Plus Upgrade
60% 60%
Prime
41% 40%
Same
40% 23% 22% 40% 41%
23% Near prime
Downgrade
20% Subprime 20%
28% 27% 24% 26% 26%
20%
0% 0%
Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
CreditVision (CV) score ranges are: Subprime = 300–680; Near prime = 681-730;
Prime = 731-770; Prime plus = 771-790; Super prime = 791-900

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 21

Credit performance continues to improve
year-on-year across for most products

Balance-level 90+ DPD by

Product (Mar-2023) CMI Performance

YoY
Product 90+ Rate Change (Bps) 120

Home Loan 1.05% -24 100

100
LAP 1.77% -119

CMI Value
Auto Loan 0.75% -26 80 86

Two Wheeler Loan 1.57% -83

60 67
Personal Loan 0.94% -4

Credit Card 2.94% 66 40

Mar-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Dec-22

Mar-23
Jun-21

Sep-21

Jun-22

Sep-22
Consumer Durable Loan 1.46% 1

Higher value of performance CMI reflects better performance

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 22

 Consumption-led products continue to have early delinquency
compared to previous year

Vintage Delinquency by Accounts

Q3 2021 Q3 2022

12% 11%
10%
% Accounts Ever 30+

8% 8%
in 6 Months

6%
6%
5% 5%
5% 5% 5%
4% 4%
4%
4%
2%

0%
Home Loan LAP Auto Loan Two Wheeler Personal Loan Credit Consumer
Loan Card Durable Loan

Vintage delinquency is calculated as % of accounts ever 30+dpd in 6 months from origination

Origination of Q3 2021, Q3 2022, vintages measured in Q1 2022, Q1 2023

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 23

 Consumption-led products continue to have higher early delinquency
when measured by sanction amount

Vintage Delinquency by Sanction Amount

Q3 2021 Q3 2022

12%
% Amount Ever 30+

8%
in 6 Months

7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4% 4%
4% 3% 3%
2%
2% 2%

0%
Home Loan LAP Auto Loan Two Wheeler Personal Loan Credit Consumer
Loan Card Durable Loan

Vintage delinquency is calculated as % of Sanction amount ever 30+dpd in 6 months from origination
Origination of, Q3 2021, Q3 2022, vintages measured in, Q1 2022, Q1 2023

Source: TransUnion CIBIL consumer credit database 24

 Disclaimer

This Presentation is prepared by TransUnion CIBIL Limited (TU CIBIL). This Presentation is based on collation of information, substantially, provided by
credit institutions who are members with TU CIBIL. While TU CIBIL takes reasonable care in preparing the Presentation , TU CIBIL shall not be responsible
for errors and/or omissions caused by inaccurate or inadequate information submitted to it by credit institutions. Further, TU CIBIL does not guarantee the
adequacy or completeness of the information in the Presentation and/or its suitability for any specific purpose nor is TU CIBIL responsible for any access
or reliance on the Presentation and that TU CIBIL expressly disclaims all such liability. This Presentation is not a recommendation for rejection / denial or
acceptance of any application nor any recommendation by TU CIBIL to (i) lend or not to lend; (ii) enter into or not to enter into any financial transaction with
the concerned individual/entity. The user should carry out all the necessary analysis that is prudent in its opinion before making any decisions based on
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