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Iridium Communications MASTER Investor Day 2023 - FINAL PDF 09.21.23-Compressed
Iridium Communications MASTER Investor Day 2023 - FINAL PDF 09.21.23-Compressed
Iridium Communications MASTER Investor Day 2023 - FINAL PDF 09.21.23-Compressed
Ken Levy
Vice President, Investor Relations
Today's Agenda & Speakers
Matt Desch
Bryan Hartin
Scott Scheimreif
Break
Emily Miller
Suzi McBride
Tom Fitzpatrick
Q&A
Reception
Safe Harbor Statement
This presentation contains statements about future events and expectations known as “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section
27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the
“Exchange Act”). Iridium Communications Inc. (“Iridium” or the “Company”) has based these statements on its current expectations and the
information currently available to it.
Forward-looking statements in this presentation include statements regarding expected service revenue growth, Operational EBITDA, capital
expenditures, free cash flow, FCF yield and FCF conversion, cash taxes and leverage levels; potential returns to shareholders, including dividends,
share buybacks and strategic investments; amount and timing of share repurchases; expected growth and competitive factors in the mobile
satellite services segment; contracted U.S. government revenues; the market for, capabilities of, and growth prosects for new products and
services, such as Iridium Certus®; the capabilities and benefits of and the market for the Aireon® system; and Aireon’s financial impact on Iridium.
Other forward-looking statements can be identified by the words "anticipates," "may," "can," "believes," "expects," "projects," "intends," "likely,"
"will," "to be" and other expressions that are predictions of or indicate future events, trends or prospects. These forward-looking statements involve
known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Iridium to differ
materially from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks and
uncertainties include, but are not limited to, uncertainties regarding expected Operational EBITDA margin, growth in subscribers and revenue,
levels of demand for mobile satellite services, the market for the Aireon hosted payloads, the ability of Aireon to pay its hosting fees, the
development of and demand for new products and services, including Iridium Certus, the Company’s ability to complete its share repurchase
programs, and the Company’s ability to maintain the health, capacity and content of its satellite constellation, as well as general industry and
economic conditions, and competitive, legal, governmental and technological factors. Other factors that could cause actual results to differ
materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements include those factors listed under the caption "Risk Factors“ in the Company’s
Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, filed with the SEC on February 16, 2023, as well as other filings Iridium makes with the SEC
from time to time. There is no assurance that Iridium's expectations will be realized. If one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or if
Iridium's underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those expected, estimated or projected.
Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date hereof unless otherwise
indicated. The Company undertakes no obligation to release publicly any revisions to any forward-looking statements after the date they are made,
whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
In addition to disclosing financial results that are determined in accordance with U.S. GAAP, the Company provides Operational EBITDA, Operational EBITDA
margin and Pro Forma Free Cash Flow, which are non-GAAP financial measures, as supplemental measures to help investors evaluate the Company’s
fundamental operational performance. Operational EBITDA represents earnings before interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization, equity income
(loss) from investments, net, share-based compensation expenses and, for periods presented through the first quarter of 2020 only, certain expenses
associated with the construction of the Company’s Iridium NEXT satellite constellation, primarily in-orbit insurance. The Company considers the loss on early
extinguishment of debt to be financing-related costs associated with interest expense or amortization of financing fees, which by definition are excluded from
Operational EBITDA. Such charges are incidental to, but not reflective of, the Company’s day-to-day operating performance. The Company also presents
Operational EBITDA expressed as a percentage of GAAP revenue, or Operational EBITDA margin. In addition, the Company presents Pro Forma Free Cash
Flow, which subtracts non-cash hosted payload revenue, pro forma net interest, and normalized capital expenditures, working capital and cash taxes from
Operational EBITDA. The Company uses Pro Forma Free Cash Flow to measure the Company’s capacity for deleveraging and other shareholder-friendly
actions. Operational EBITDA, along with its related measure, Operational EBITDA margin, and Pro Forma Free Cash Flow, do not represent, and should not be
considered, alternatives to U.S. GAAP measurements such as net income or loss. In addition, there is no standardized measurement of Operational EBITDA or
Pro Forma Free Cash Flow, and the Company’s calculations thereof may not be comparable to similarly titled measures reported by other companies. The
Company believes Operational EBITDA and Pro Forma Free Cash Flow are useful measures across time in evaluating the Company’s fundamental core
operating performance. Management also uses Operational EBITDA to manage the business, including in preparing its annual operating budget, debt covenant
compliance, financial projections and compensation plans. The Company believes that Operational EBITDA and Pro Forma Free Cash Flow are also useful to
investors because similar measures are frequently used by securities analysts, investors and other interested parties in their evaluation of companies in similar
industries. As indicated, Operational EBITDA does not include interest expense on borrowed money, the payment of income taxes, amortization of the
Company’s definite-lived intangible assets, or depreciation expense on the Company’s capital assets, which are necessary elements of the Company’s
operations. Since Operational EBITDA does not account for these and other expenses, its utility as a measure of the Company’s operating performance has
material limitations. Pro Forma Free Cash Flow further adjusts Operational EBITDA by subtracting pro forma net interest, cash from hosted payloads, and
normalized amounts of capital expenditures, working capital and cash taxes. The actual amounts of these pro forma and normalized measures may vary from
year to year. Due to these limitations, the Company’s management does not view Operational EBITDA or Pro Forma Free Cash Flow in isolation, but also uses
other measurements, such as net income (loss), revenues, operating profit and cash flows from operating activities, to measure operating performance. Please
refer to the schedule in the Appendix for a reconciliation of consolidated GAAP net loss to Operational EBITDA and Pro Forma Free Cash Flow and Iridium’s
Investor Relations webpage at www.iridium.com for a discussion and reconciliation of these and other non-GAAP financial measures. We do not provide a
forward-looking reconciliation of expected full-year 2023 Operational EBITDA or Pro Forma Free Cash Flow guidance as the amount and significance of special
items required to develop meaningful comparable GAAP financial measures cannot be estimated at this time without unreasonable efforts.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Matt Desch
Chief Executive Officer
How did we get here?
The Beginning of a System
Long-Term Track Record of Growth
Serving
Total Service Revenue ~2.2M
($ millions) Customers
3E ) 1
2 0 2 $588
17-
R (20
G
% CA
9 .2
$213
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
1. 2023 Service Revenue reflects the mid-point of Iridium's full-year forecast, quoted as growth between 9 – 11% in 2023.
A Unique Cyclical Capital Profile
Capital Expenditures and OEBITDA Over Time
CapEx $460M1
OEBITDA
~$4B
Legacy Iridium
Investment N3XT
CapEx Holiday Iridium NEXT CapEx Holiday
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
1. 2023 OEBITDA reflects the mid-point of Iridium's full-year forecast, quoted as between $455M and $465M in 2023.
21
Market Value Growth 2010-2023
Market Capitalization
$7.4B
$6.1B
$600M
Transportation &
Delivery
Industrial
Global Governments
U.S. Government
Aviation
Maritime
Emergency
Research
Polar
Autonomous Systems
Energy
1.5 MILLION
>60,000 SOLD
32% 5-YR REVENUE CAGR
250,000 SUBS
14,000 BROADBAND
TERMINALS
80% OF SOLAS-CLASS
70,000 SUBS
9% 5-YR REVENUE CAGR
D I R E C T- T O - D E V I C E
VECTORS MIDBAND
THROUGH
BROADBAND
A LT E R N AT E P N T
D I R E C T- T O - D E V I C E
VECTORS MIDBAND
THROUGH
BROADBAND
A LT E R N AT E P N T
Will be Determined
by User Experience
Service Quality
One person in remote area / forest
Cost to End User Other person using heavy equipment
Service Consistency Questions on other side
Outdoor Only?
Data Speeds & Latency
Regional vs Global Use
…and many more
Multiple D2D Approaches are Likely
• Global SOS and Messaging are core requirements
D I R E C T- T O - D E V I C E
VECTORS MIDBAND
THROUGH
BROADBAND
A LT E R N AT E P N T
Each Generates Incremental Revenues while Building Potential Equity for Future Value
THOUGHTS ON POSSIBLE FUTURE M&A…
Iridium Acquisition Interests
• Very few. No need to acquire for inorganic growth
• Not interested in acquiring partners – our go-to-market execution
has been optimal
• Would consider acquisitions that would enhance subscriber capacity
over very long term
• Expecting more opportunities to evolve in future – industry
overinvestment over last 10 years
• Business/Culture integration critical to any acquisition’s success
EXPANDING OUR IoT OPPORTUNITY
WITH STANDARDS-BASED 5G
NARROWBAND IoT (NB-IoT)
FROM SPACE
52
Iridium IoT vs New Narrowband IoT (NB-IoT)
New Satellite NB-IoT
BENEFITS DRAWBACKS
• Low Latency
• Low Device Cost • Spectrum – Lease?
• High Reliability
• 3GPP Standard • High Latency
• Global Coverage
• MNO Support • Reliability Uncertain
• Established, Large
Partner Ecosystem • Established • Operator Financial
Ecosystem Uncertainty
D I R E C T- T O - D E V I C E
VECTORS MIDBAND
THROUGH
BROADBAND
A LT E R N AT E P N T
~$1B in Annual
Service Revenue
in 2030
Expectations to 2030…
~45% CAGR
OVER THE LAST 5 YEARS
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Total Personal Communications subscribers as of last day of each year or calendar period indicated.
has context menu
QUALCOMM PARTNERSHIP
LAUNCHED MIDBAND
LAUNCHED IRIDIUM GO! exec
Accelerating Growth
OVER
2 MILLION
TOTAL COMMERCIAL SUBSCRIBERS
Delivering Results with Consistent Performance and Accelerating Subscriber Growth
Where are we going
from here?
Iridium’s Proven Growth Model
INNOVATION /
FOCUSED &
ENABLING
DISCIPLINED
TECHNOLOGY
D I R E C T- T O - D E V I C E
VECTORS MIDBAND
THROUGH
BROADBAND
A LT E R N AT E P N T
D I R E C T- T O - D E V I C E
VECTORS MIDBAND
THROUGH
BROADBAND
A LT E R N AT E P N T
D I R E C T- T O - D E V I C E
VECTORS MIDBAND
THROUGH
BROADBAND
A LT E R N AT E P N T
$324 Future
• Iridium Certus IoT Platform/Enabling
Technology
• Partner Development Program
2023 2030 • Continued expansion of the partner
* NSR custom report August 2023 / MSS L-Band
ecosystem [new solutions]
D I R E C T- T O - D E V I C E
VECTORS MIDBAND
THROUGH
BROADBAND
A LT E R N AT E P N T
D I R E C T- T O - D E V I C E
VECTORS MIDBAND
THROUGH
BROADBAND
A LT E R N AT E P N T
Future
• PTT Focus and Growth
• Leverage competitors’ weakening market
presence and uncertain futures to grow
Handset/Iridium GO! sales and subscriber
2023 2030 growth
* NSR custom report August 2023 / MSS L-Band
• Expansion into new markets/geographies
D I R E C T- T O - D E V I C E
VECTORS MIDBAND
THROUGH
BROADBAND
A LT E R N AT E P N T
Narrowband
BANDWIDTH
L
Z
GA UPR
IR A
O
LSR
I ND
U TEID
N HARN
CAOM OTBRIO
NNE L ILT Y
I o T & P E R S O N A L C O M M U N I C AT I O N S
D I R E C T- T O - D E V I C E
VECTORS MIDBAND
THROUGH
BROADBAND
A LT E R N AT E P N T
Future
• GMDSS over Iridium Certus
• VSAT companion sales
• Starlink companion services
2023 2030 • Autonomous Vessel growth
* NSR custom report August 2023 / MSS L-Band
• Ship Security solutions
Supporting US DoD,
Civilian & Allies
Newly Formed
Commercial Space
Office (COMSO)
USG EMSS Subscribers & Revenue
160k $120M
140k
$100M
120k
$80M
100k
80k $60M
60k
$40M
40k
$20M
20k
0k -
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Est. Est. Est. Est.
EMSS Revenue EMSS Subscribers
The current Enhanced Mobile Satellite Services (EMSS) contract is a 7-year, $738.5 million contract, awarded in 2019.
Government Engineering & Support Revenue
$50M
$40M
$30M
$20M
$10M
$M
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Traditional Engineering & Support SDA Revenue 1
1. The SDA awarded GDMS and Iridium a $324 million contract in May 2022.
USG & SPACE INDUSTRY
USG & Space Industry
- Michael A. Guetlein
Lieutenant General, U.S. Space Force
USG & SPACE INDUSTRY
Expanding USG Market
STRATEGIC CAPABILITY FOR USG
Highly Mobile
Secure
Global
Handheld
Communications
US Army Blue Force
Tracking
10-year Effort
Leveraging the
Qualcomm Snapdragon
Technology
Smartphones, Sensors,
Unmanned Platforms,
Tactical Radios, etc.
100,000s of Terminals
Starting in 2024
Building on 23-year
USG Relationship
Strategic Industry
Partnerships
Primary, Alternate,
Contingent, Emergency
3.9x $94
3.4x $80
3.2x $74
~3.0x
$65
$118
$71
$60
$39 $42
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E
ü Reduced leverage from 5.2x (2018) to around ü Maintaining the capex holiday post- ü Evolved capital structure to reduce interest
3x (2023E) and paid down $100M in debt next generation constellation launch costs, raise corporate credit rating, and
provide more flexibility
1. Net Leverage quoted as a multiple of OEBITDA and calculated by taking the sum of existing credit facilities, less cash, cash equivalents and marketable
securities. 2023 guidance assumes the full effect of Iridium's total $1.0 billion in authorized share repurchases and payment of quarterly dividends.
2. Capital Expenditures exclude launch cost of 5 spare satellites in 2023. 2023 INVESTOR DAY
3. Interest costs represent gross interest paid, excludes interest received.
Update on Credit Facility
Completed full refinancing of credit facility in September 2023, extending
maturity runway by ~4 years and further lowering all-in coupon cost
F L E X I B I L I T Y F O R S T R AT E G I C I N V E S T M E N T S I F C O M P E L L I N G
Tax Rate
s
a l ly a
u
g rad d
p te to
te p u haus ted
s ex c
ta xes are e xpe
Ca
sh OLs
N x rate 028
a 2
tory t % in
tu 3
d sta ch ~2
l ende rea
B
Negligible Cash Taxes through 20241
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028+
1. Cash taxes are estimated to be less than 1% of Operational EBITDA in this period.
2023 INVESTOR DAY
Net Leverage
Our net leverage profile continues to decline, falling below 2.0x
OEBITDA by the end of the decade
<2.5x
<2.0x • OEBITDA growth continues to
drive lower leverage levels
1. Net Leverage estimates quoted as a multiple of Operational EBITDA. Net debt is calculated by taking the sum of existing credit facilities, less cash, cash equivalents
and marketable securities. 2023 guidance assumes the full effect of Iridium's total $1.0 billion in authorized share repurchases and payment of quarterly dividends.
2023 INVESTOR DAY
Iridium Financial Outlook 2023-2030
Our revenue and OEBITDA growth profile generates around $3B
in capacity for shareholder returns from 2023-30 (while de-levering a full turn)
~$3B
1. Capacity based upon estimated free cash flow from 2023-30, inclusive, and based upon market capitalization as of September 15, 2023.
2023 INVESTOR DAY
Q&A