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Transportation Research Procedia 55 (2021) 1547–1554

14th International scientific conference on sustainable, modern, and safe transport

14th International scientific conference on sustainable, modern, and safe transport
Application of the PERT Method in Planning of Area Evacuation of
Application of the PERT Method in Planning of Area Evacuation of
Persons
Persons
Zuzana Gašparíkováaa*, Bohuš Leitneraa
Zuzana Gašparíková *, Bohuš Leitner
a
University of Žilina, Faculty of Security Engineering, 1.mája 32, Žilina, 010 26, Slovakia.
a
University of Žilina, Faculty of Security Engineering, 1.mája 32, Žilina, 010 26, Slovakia.

Abstract
Abstract
Crisis situations usually come into our lives unexpectedly without a warning and therefore precise approaches are needed to protect
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their fulfillment. Methods of operational analysis form the basis for finding the optimal solution to the researched
have a wide practical application in connection with time planning, storage, passenger transport, distribution of products, operation problem. They
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possibility of
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and evacuation of The aim of the article
the population, is the application
the practical use of the
of
software tool MS Project, interpretation of results, and pointing out the possible use of network analysis methods in crisisuse
the PERT method to the processes associated with crisis management and evacuation of the population, the practical of the
planning
software tool MS Project, interpretation of results, and pointing out the possible use of network analysis methods in crisis planning
situations.
situations.
© 2021 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V.
© 2021
© 2021 The
The Authors.
Authors. Published
Published by by ELSEVIER
ELSEVIER B.V. B.V.
This
This is
is an
an open
open access
access article
article under
under the
the CC
CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
This is an open access
Peer-review article under the
the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
Peer-review under
under responsibility
responsibilityof of thescientific
scientificcommittee
committeeofofthe theTRANSCOM
TRANSCOM2021: 2021:14th
14thInternational
International scientific
scientific conference
conference
Peer-review
on
on sustainable,under
sustainable, responsibility
modern
modern and
andsafe of the scientific committee of the TRANSCOM 2021: 14th International scientific conference
safetransport
transport
on sustainable,
Keywords: modern and
crisis planning, safe transport
evacuation, transport security evacuation, network graph, PERT method.
Keywords: crisis planning, evacuation, transport security evacuation, network graph, PERT method.

1. Introduction
1. Introduction
Crisis planning means the preparation and coordination of measures to ensure the functioning of public authorities,
theCrisis planning
economy, means the
the internal preparation
order and of
and security coordination of measures
the state, and to ensure the
the civil protection of functioning of public
the population authorities,
in times of crisis.
the economy,
Crisis planningthe internal
uses order called
documents and security of the plans.
contingency state, and theare
These civil protectioninof
documents the population
which in times
measures for of crisis.
the solution of
aCrisis planning
possible crisisuses documents
situation called professional,
in certain contingency plans. These
spatial, and are documents
temporal in whichare
dimensions measures for the elaborated.
purposefully solution of
a possible crisis situation in certain professional, spatial, and temporal dimensions are purposefully elaborated.

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +421-41-5136857

* Corresponding
E-mail address:author. Tel.: +421-41-5136857
zuzana.gasparikova̷ˆ„‹Ǥ—‹œƒǤ•
E-mail address: zuzana.gasparikova̷ˆ„‹Ǥ—‹œƒǤ•
2352-1465 © 2021 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V.
2352-1465
This © 2021
is an open Thearticle
access Authors. Published
under by ELSEVIER
the CC BY-NC-ND B.V.(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
license
This is an open
Peer-review access
under article under
responsibility of the scientific
CC BY-NC-ND license
committee (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
of the TRANSCOM 2021: 14th International scientific conference on sustainable,
Peer-review
modern undertransport
and safe responsibility of the scientific committee of the TRANSCOM 2021: 14th International scientific conference on sustainable,
modern and safe transport
2352-1465 © 2021 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the TRANSCOM 2021: 14th International scientific conference on
sustainable, modern and safe transport
10.1016/j.trpro.2021.07.144
1548 Zuzana Gašparíková et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 55 (2021) 1547–1554
2 Zuzana Gašparíková, Bohuš Leitner / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2021) 000–000

Different types of crisis plans are used in crisis management. One of the groups of the contingency plans are
contingency plans for the period of crisis emergence and escalation. Such plans should include plans for the evacuation
of the population, livestock, rescue plans or protection of important objects, cultural monuments. and other values that
cannot be evacuated, but also plans for dispensing protective equipment and substances (masks, medicines), shelter
plans, plans for hygienic and special cleaning of terrain, buildings and materials, dosimetric security plans (nuclear
power plant accident), regime measures for action in crisis conditions, and other plans.
One of the suitable tools in the creation of crisis plans is the application of methods included in the field of network
analysis as a subset of tasks within general graph theory. Network analysis and its methods are used to describe,
analyze, and optimize the implementation of large-scale processes which are divided into consecutive sub-activities.
The design and control of crisis plans through network graphs and the use of appropriate network analysis methods
with appropriate software support is becoming increasingly important as crisis management decisions are often about
saving lives and minimizing large-scales damages to property and environment. The aim of the article is to present the
possibilities of applying network analysis methods in the process of planning the evacuation of people, estimating the
times associated with individual evacuation steps and demonstrating the practical use of MS Project software tool to
identify critical activities in the evacuation process and quantify the estimated duration.

2. Analysis of the current state

The issue of the use of network analysis methods in crisis management processes is not new, but its more systematic
application in practice is still not sufficient. In the preparatory phase of the preventive area of crisis management, it is
necessary to take into account the diversity and unpredictability of crisis phenomena that may develop. Therefore,
choosing a suitable scenario is a very important step. The protection of the population is a system of measures that are
provided on the basis of an analysis of the area and the possible occurrence of an emergency. Mathematical approaches
and modeling of area evacuation processes are mainly dealt with by foreign authors. For example, the Capacity
Constrained Route Planner (CCRP) approach is a computational procedure based on the modified Dijkstra algorithm
and aims to design the movement of evacuees so that the maximum evacuation time is minimal. Such a heuristic
approach is used in Capacity Constrained Routing algorithms for evacuation planning by Lu et al. (2005) where the
authors look for optimal solutions to the evacuation planning process of the affected population in case of natural
disasters or terrorist attacks.The dynamic evacuation plan which cooperates with the Disaster Management Spatial
Information System (DiMSIS) contains a work in which the authors Liu et al. (2016) deal with dynamic changes in
water depth during floods. They created the so-called The Adaptive Evacuation Route Algorithm (AERA) where they
consider the total evacuation time and safe evacuation routes as the main optimization criteria. The issue of using
network analysis methods is also dealt with by the international organization INFORMS (www.informs.org). As part
of its activities a software package TEDSS (transportation evacuation decision support system) was designed for the
analysis and updating of evacuation plans in the vicinity of nuclear power plants by Hobeika at al. (1994). Using
network analysis methods, a work-time model STOM (Spatio-temporal optimization model) designed for the
evacuation of the population exposed to flood risks was designed and created in the work by Allaeddinee at al. (2015).
This model, for example, assumes that most evacuators will move out of the endangered area by their own means of
transport. From Slovak authors we can mention thesis Leitner (2002) or Jakubčeková Mihoková (2018) which deal
with the optimization of evacuation routes using network analysis methods. From the above overview it is clear that
the issue of widespread evacuation of the population, but also animals or things and cultural heritage is not new, but
the ever-changing types of threats and their consequences, the development of computing and data sharing capabilities
require the continuous improvement of theoretical knowledge and practical solutions for effective evacuation from
the affected area.

3. Characteristics of the used methods

When analyzing a project using network analysis methods, it is necessary to perform several important activities
before their computational implementation, which have a significant impact on the relevance of the results. These are
mainly:
1. Division of the project into sub-activities – list of activities
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Zuzana Gašparíková, Bohuš Leitner / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2021) 000–000 3

2. Estimation of the duration (implementation) of individual activities

3. Determination of logical / technological continuity of individual activities
4. Construction of a network graph by Jablonský (2007)
The project expressed by a network graph can then be analyzed by one of the network analysis methods. The most
commonly used methods include the Critical Path Method (CPM) and the Program Evaluation and Review Technique
(PERT). PERT and CPM are complementary tools. CPM employs one time estimation and one cost estimation for
each activity; PERT may utilize three-time estimates (optimistic, expected, and pessimistic) and no costs for each
activity. The time unit is only a random variable. The pessimistic duration 𝑏𝑏𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 represents the maximum duration of the
activity, taking into account all possible reasons for the delay. With an optimistic duration of 𝑎𝑎𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 the most favorable
conditions are considered. Although these are distinct differences, the term PERT is applied increasingly to all critical
path scheduling. PERT is a method of analyzing the tasks involved in completing a given project, especially the time
needed to complete each task, and to identify the minimum time needed to complete the total project. It incorporates
uncertainty by making it possible to schedule a project while not knowing precisely the details and durations of all the
activities. It is more of an event-oriented technique rather than start- and completion-oriented, and is used more in
those projects where time is the major factor rather than cost. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate the
possibilities of using network analysis methods in determining selected parameters needed for more objective planning
of area evacuation.

3.1. Compilation of a network graph of individual activities of the evacuation process

To create a network graph, it is necessary to define a set of activities, their appropriate designation, an indication
of the expected duration of individual activities, and the determination of the predecessors - defining activities
preceding the given activity (Table 1). This will give us a time sequence of individual activities.

Table 1. Table of time sequences of individual activities.

ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION OF ACTIVITIES PREVIOUS ACTIVITY
A Start Of Evacuation
B Evacuation Decision
C Delimitation Of The Evacuation Zone B
D Alert Service And Sirens C
E Activation Of The Evacuation Center C
F Evacuation Broadcast C
G Ensuring The Number Of Evacuees C
H Securing Boarding Places C
I Activation Of The Information Line D
J Provision Of Medical Assistance And Other Rescue Services G
K Delivery Of Means Of Transport G, H
L Provision Of Evacuation Center (Staff, Material…) E
M Self-Evacuation L
N Boarding Of Evacuation Vehicles J, K
O Transport To Evacuation Centers N
P Exit From Evacuation Vehicles O
R Ensuring Traffic Regulation H
S Siren Warning (Repeat) D
T Submission Of Information Over The Line I, S
U Population Register M, P
V END OF EVACUATION F, R, T, U
4 Zuzana Gašparíková, Bohuš Leitner / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2021) 000–000
1550 Zuzana Gašparíková et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 55 (2021) 1547–1554

In our model case, the evacuation time determined by the CPM method is 124 minutes and all activities that have
a time reserve value of zero were identified as critical activities. For such activities were found - decisions on
evacuation, delimitation of the evacuation zone, ensuring the number of evacuees, provision of medical assistance
and other rescue services, boarding of evacuation vehicles, transport of evacuation centres, exit from evacuation
vehicles, population registration, and end of evacuation.

4. Application of the PERT method in planning the area evacuation process

The PERT method was created by extending the CPM method in 1958 as a tool for the development of guided
missiles for Polaris nuclear submarines for the US Navy. As the PERT method has a stochastic character, it allows to
make probabilistic calculations. A unit of time is just a random variable that has a certain probability. The aim of this
method is to arrange the partial activities in such a way as to ensure that the project completion date is met with
sufficiently high probability. Therefore, time data are determined for each activity – probable duration, shortest
(optimistic) duration and longest (pessimistic) duration. The pessimistic duration 𝑏𝑏𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 represents the maximum duration
of the activity, taking into account all possible reasons for the delay. The optimistic duration 𝑎𝑎𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 considers the most
favorable conditions. The PERT method is used in project management to estimate the minimum time required to
complete a project by analyzing all sub-activities. The above estimates of the duration of activities are transformed
into statistical quantities within the calculation procedure – the expected duration of activity 𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 , the standard deviation
𝜎𝜎𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 and the variance 𝜎𝜎𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖2 .
We consider the advantage of the chosen method to be its clarity in a larger amount of data and the visibility of the
critical path, which allows for more flexible changes and potentially shorten the whole process according to its current
course. On the other hand, the method causes uncertainty due to the fact that the time data are only an estimate, which
may ultimately have a negative effect as the evacuation is mainly about the speed of rescue work.

4.1. Analysis of time units of individual activities

From the list of activities (Table 1) an evaluated oriented graphic structure representing the project model – network
graph was created (Fig. 1). The mentioned network already contains the results from the application of the CPM
method which was used for preliminary determination and verification of the expected durations of individual
activities, as it is a random variable. The times were consulted with experts in the field of civil protection and crisis
management.

Fig. 1. Network graph of evacuation and critical path of the evacuation process.
 Zuzana Gašparíková et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 55 (2021) 1547–1554 1551
Zuzana Gašparíková, Bohuš Leitner / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2021) 000–000 5

When analyzing individual activities in terms of time, we consider three values – optimistic, probable, and
pessimistic. The model situation is an area of 3 municipalities (Lietavská Lúčka, Porúbka a Rajecké Teplice) in the
district of Žilina, affected by century water (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2. Flood risk maps.

In this case, the longest evacuation distance from the boarding point to the evacuation center is 18 kilometres. It is
necessary to evacuate 1970 inhabitants all together. The time data for the PERT method are probabilistic estimates of
the duration of the sub-activities that make up the evacuation process. The data obtained from flood risk maps for a
given area and the resulting individual activity times are recorded in the Table 2.

Table 2. Duration of individual activities of the evacuation process

Activity Optimistic Probability Pessimistic Expected Standard Variance
Duration (𝒂𝒂𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 ) Duration (𝒎𝒎𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 ) Duration (𝒃𝒃𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 ) Duration Deviation (𝝈𝝈𝟐𝟐𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 )
[Min.] [Min.] [Min.] (𝒕𝒕𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 ) [Min.] (𝝈𝝈𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 )
Evacuation Decision 1 3 5 3,00 0,67 0,44
Delimitation Of The 2 4 6 4,00 0,67 0,44
Evacuation Zone
Alert Service And Sirens 4 5 6 5,00 0,33 0,11
Activation Of The Evacuation 3 4 5 4,00 0,33 0,11
Center
Evacuation Broadcast 105 110 120 110,83 2,50 6,25
Ensuring The Number Of 5 7 10 7,17 0,83 0,69
Evacuees
Securing Boarding Places 15 17,5 20 17,5 0,83 0,69
(Designation, Notification)
Activation Of The Information 2 3,5 5 3,50 0,50 0,25
Line
Provision Of Medical 30 32,5 37 32,83 1,17 1,36
Assistance And Other Rescue
Services
Delivery Of Means Of 15 20 27 20,33 2,00 4,00
Transport
Provision Of Evacuation 25 32,5 40 32,50 2,50 6,25
Center (Staff, Material…)
Self-Evacuation 40 50 65 50,83 4,17 17,36
1552 Zuzana Gašparíková et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 55 (2021) 1547–1554
6 Zuzana Gašparíková, Bohuš Leitner / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2021) 000–000

Boarding Of Evacuation 10 15 19 14,83 1,50 2,25

Vehicles
Transport To Evacuation 15 22,5 30 22,50 2,50 6,25
Centers
Exit From Evacuation Vehicles 10 12,5 15 12,50 0,83 0,69
Ensuring Traffic Regulation 85 97,5 110 97,5 4,17 17,36
Siren Warning (Repeat) 2 3 4 3,00 0,33 0,11
Submission Of Information 95 105 110 104,17 2,50 6,25
Over The Line
Population Register 20 27,5 35 27,50 2,50 6,25

From the determined value (in Table 3) it is possible to express the mean duration activity 𝑇𝑇, which represents the
sum of the expected values of the duration of critical activities (underlined in Table 3). The duration of the activity 𝑇𝑇
under the case study conditions is 𝑇𝑇 = ∑ 𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 = 124,33 minutes. The standard deviation is usually derived as 1/6 of
the range of optimistic and pessimistic process duration. The variance during the evacuation process is determined as
the sum of variance of the individual activities on the critical path 𝜎𝜎𝑇𝑇2 = ∑ 𝜎𝜎𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖2 = 18,37 minutes.

4.2. Verification of results by Microsoft Project

By using Microsoft Project, the values were gradually determined, and then a Gantt chart was drawn for the
expected course of individual activities of the evacuation process for all three cases – optimistic, pessimistic, and
probable course.
The optimistic course considers the most favorable conditions for performing individual activities without time
delay. The evacuation process and individual activities would take 108 minutes under optimal conditions.
The pessimistic course determines the maximum duration of individual activities taking into account all the reasons
for the delay. The pessimistic (maximum) time for which the individual activities can be performed during the
evacuation process is 157 minutes.
The expected course represents the value of the duration of the activity which we calculated in the previous section
at 124,33 minutes. We verified this data using Microsoft Project (Fig. 3), but we took into the account, that the program
displays only minutes, and not seconds.

Fig. 3. Table with expected time values of evacuation process activities.

4.3. Interpretation of the obtained results

Using network analysis and one of its methods - PERT determined the approximate duration of the evacuation.
During the solution, the evacuation process was divided into partial activities to which the durations and activities that
 Zuzana Gašparíková et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 55 (2021) 1547–1554 1553
Zuzana Gašparíková, Bohuš Leitner / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2021) 000–000 7

are their predecessors were assigned. The purpose was to draw a Gantt chart of individual activities of which the
evacuation process consists of, and identify critical activities (Fig. 4).

Fig. 4. Gantt diagram of the evacuation process by the PERT method in the Microsoft Project.

For the PERT method, 3 durations were specified: optimistic, pessimistic, and probable. The expected evacuation
duration was calculated to be 124,33 minutes using mathematical relations. In Microsoft Project, the expected values
of the evacuation duration were rounded because Microsoft Project works with time units only in the form of hours
and minutes (00:00). The results according to the selected parameters were relatively optimistic. However, we
considered a possibility that the majority of the affected population will use secured evacuation means and only the
minimum will choose self-evacuation. The results obtained by these tools can be influenced by several factors. One
such factor is the number of self-evacuees and the overall discipline of the population. In crisis situations the
psychological thinking of the crowd changes which can significantly affect the overall evacuation time in a panic.
Identification, making, and storage of dynamic route of active evacuation AER (Active Evacuation Route) with regard
to psychological crowd behavior deals with the European Union – funded eVACUATE project. Other factors that may
be conditional for this evacuation time are, for example, cooperation with the SAD, rescue service and police,
insufficient updating of flood risk maps, destruction of an important element of critical infrastructure, or possible
flooding of the planned evacuation route.

5. Conclusion

The evacuation securing process consists of a number of sub-activities that need to be secured and that follow one
another. It is important to create a system that combines these activities, and makes it possible to create a probabilistic
plan to protect the life and health of the population. For such purpose, it is advantageous to choose network analysis
methods that are designed to plan a process that consists of several sub-activities. Crisis managers involved in the
development of crisis and evacuation plans can build on the results obtained using the PERT method. Although the
identification of activities and their time estimation are lengthy and demanding, the result is a detailed plan that
identifies the critical path and forms the path from the beginning of the activities to the end of the activities that must
be followed. Another advantage is the fact that if there are certain changes in the project plan, software tools can be
used to quickly identify a new critical path and a new shortest possible duration of the process. The result of the
solution was a verification of the possibilities for applications of network analysis methods in the process of planning
of an evacuation of people in an area, and a demonstration of using Microsoft Project in identifying critical activities
1554 Zuzana Gašparíková et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 55 (2021) 1547–1554
8 Zuzana Gašparíková, Bohuš Leitner / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2021) 000–000

in the evacuation process and quantifying the estimated duration of the whole process. When planning the evacuation
process, several tools can be used to find the optimal way to solve distribution problems.

Acknowledgements

"This article was supported by the scientific research project VEGA 1/0159/19 Evaluation of the level of resilience
of key elements of land transport infrastructure."

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