Derivatives view

November 24, 2023

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Derivatives Strategy
Intraday...
Underlying Action
Action Scrip Target 1 Target 2 Stoploss Time frame
Tata Chemical Buy
Buy AARIND Nov Fut at | 529.55-532.55 Aarti Industries Limited 540.1 553.6 522.1 Intraday
Sell ULTCEM Nov Fut at | 8628.4-8634.4 Ultratech Cement Limited 8541.4 8406.4 8721.4 Intraday

Daily view
Duration : 1-2 months
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Quant (Derivatives)
• PRODUCT Pick
1
Underlying Action
Weekly... IndusInd Bank Buy
Positional...
Action Scrip Target Stoploss Time frame Status

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Buy INDRAI Nov Fut at | 704.0 -707.0 Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation 755.0 679.0 Weekly Profit Booked
Sell PETLNG Nov Fut at | 196.0 - 196.5 Petronet LNG 184.0 203.1 Weekly Open
Duration : 1-3 months
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Research Analysts
Dipesh Dedhia Siddhesh Jain
Raj Deepak Singh
rajdeepak.singh@icicisecurities.com dipesh.dedhia@icicisecurities.com siddhesh.jain@icicisecurities.com
Intraday Outlook: Buy Bank Nifty in the range of 43550-
43650

Nifty ❖ GIFT Nifty indicates tepid start for the day. We believe ahead of long

Derivatives View
Close Pvs Close % Change weekend, Nifty is likely to consolidate around current levels. Broader
Spot 19802.00 19811.85 -0.05% range for the current consolidation is 19750 -19950 levels.
Future 19868.75 19884.10 -0.08%
Basis 67 72 - ❖ Sell Nifty 19750 Put option (Nov 30 expiry) in the range of | 46-48
OI (Lakhs) 132.83 126.39 5.10% Target: | 20 Stop loss: | 61
PCR 1.11 1.07 -

Bank Nifty ❖ The Bank Nifty mange to witness some recovery led by buying seen in
Close Pvs Close % Change HDFC Bank. For the day, Bank Nifty is expected to face hurdle at 44000
Spot 43577.50 43449.60 0.29% levels while on the downside 43500 is expected to act as support
Future 43690.15 43587.95 0.23%

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Basis 113 138 - ❖ Buy Bank Nifty future in the range of 43550-43650 Target: 43850-43950
OI (Lakhs) 27.64 28.31 -2.38% Stop loss: 43450

Pivot Level
Nifty Future Bank Nifty Future ❖ FIIs bought | 256 crore while DIIs bought | 457 crore in the cash segment.
S2 19733 43361
FIIs have sold index futures worth | 554 crores while in index options they
sold | 42030 crores. In stock futures segment, they bought | 936 crores.
S1 19767 43469
Pivot 19821 43560
❖ Stocks in Ban: Balrampur Chini, Hindustan Copper, Hindustan Petroleum,
R1 19856 43668
Indiabulls Housing Finance, India Cement, Manappuram, MCX, RBL Bank
R2 19910 43758 & Zee Entertainment.

Note: Index calls may be changed, if view differs during market hours and positional recommendations given in Derivatives Strategy should not be linked to intraday index/stock calls.
Source: NSE, Seediff, Bloomberg ICICI Direct Research
November 24, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
 Nifty 19800 Put strike holds substantial OI…

Nifty Weekly Option OI Distribution Bank Nifty Weekly Option OI Distribution

70 25
Call OI Put OI Call OI Put OI

60 20

OI in Lacs
50
OI in Lacs

15
40
30 10
20
5
10
0 0
19700

19900
19600

19650

19750

19800

19850

19950

20000

43100

43200

43300

43400

43500

43600

43700

43800

43900

44000

44100
❖ In Nifty, 20000 Call strike holds noteworthy OI of ~64 lakhs ❖ In Bank Nifty, 44000 Call strike hold meaningful OI of ~ 22

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

shares. lakhs shares .

❖ On the Put side, 19800 strikes holds substantial OI of ~ 66 ❖ While on the Put side , 43500 strike holds sizeable OI of ~23
lakhs shares. lakh shares

Long Buildup Short Buildup Long Unwinding Short Covering

Name Price (%) OI(%) Name Price (%) OI(%) Name Price (%) OI(%) Name Price (%) OI(%)
BALRAMCHIN 1.58% 13.58% CHAMBLFERT -0.35% 8.78% AUROPHARMA -2.25% -5.38% PIIND 3.03% -13.08%
HEROMOTOCO 4.52% 11.67% PERSISTENT -2.61% 7.15% IPCALAB -1.49% -3.45% INDUSINDBK 1.10% -6.52%
AARTIIND 1.80% 8.21% ULTRACEMCO -1.57% 5.92% GODREJPROP -0.32% -3.37% MCX 2.68% -5.21%
TVSMOTOR 2.49% 6.60% BEL -1.76% 5.30% RAMCOCEM -0.63% -3.14% RBLBANK 1.42% -4.53%
BAJAJ-AUTO 2.82% 6.17% APOLLOTYRE -0.04% 4.71% GLENMARK -0.44% -2.95% BHEL 1.20% -4.43%

Source: NSE, Seediff, Bloomberg ICICI Direct Research

November 24, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 3
Recommendation with historical price performance…

i) Aarti Industries Limited (CMP: 531.05) ii) Ultratech Cement Limited (CMP: 8631.4)
Buy AARIND Nov Fut at | 529.55-532.55 Sell ULTCEM Nov Fut at | 8628.4-8634.4
Target 1: 540.1 Target 2: 553.6 Target 1: 8541.4 Target 2: 8406.4
Stop Loss: 522.1 Stop Loss: 8721.4
1150
9150
1050
8650
950 8150
850 7650
750 7150
650 6650

550 6150
5650

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

450
5150
350
4650
250
4150
23-May-22

23-Sep-22

23-May-23

23-Sep-23
23-Jul-22

23-Jul-23
23-Nov-21

23-Nov-22

23-Nov-23
23-Mar-22

23-Mar-23
23-Jan-22

23-Jan-23

24-Sep-22

24-Sep-23
24-May-22

24-May-23
24-Nov-21

24-Nov-22
24-Jul-22

24-Jul-23
24-Jan-22

24-Mar-22

24-Jan-23

24-Mar-23
Strategy Follow-up
Date Stock View Strategy Reco Target SL P&L Comment
23-Nov-23 BATIND Buy Long Fut 1618.7 1642.7 1594.7 -9000 Stoploss Triggered
23-Nov-23 CANHOM Sell Short Fut 767.7 744.6 776.9 2584 Profit booked

Source: NSE, Seediff, Bloomberg ICICI Direct Research

November 24, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 4
Weekly Recommendation

Weekly future recommendations:

Derivatives Weekly View

1) Buy INDRAI (INDIAN RAIL CAT AND TOUR IRCTC) NOV in the range of 704-707 Target 755 and StopLoss 679.
Rationale

The stock had been under constant selling pressure since October series along with liquidation in the future open interest.
Over the past few days, IRCTC is back in focus due to accumulation seen in the delivery segment. We feel fresh long positions
may take the stock higher from current levels. On the options front, major Call OI base is placed at 700 strike and last week it
has managed to close above these levels. With positive momentum seen last week, we believe that stock may test 755 levels
in the next few sessions.

2) Sell PETLNG (PETRONET LNG LIMITED) NOV in the range of 196-197.05 Target 184 and StopLoss 203.1.

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Rationale

The open interest in Petronet has risen sharply in the November series which is at multi year highs. Considering sharp cut in
the prices, aggressive short build-up is evident. In the recent pullbacks, the stock was unable to surpass the hurdle of its Call
base at 203 and now it is on the verge of moving below its Put base. We feel the stock may resume its downsides and move
towards 184 levels.

Recommendation follow up
Underlying View Strategy Reco Target Stoploss Profit/Loss Comment
Concor Bullish Buy Futures 732 776 703 19500 Profit Booked
Dixon Bearish Sell Futures 5255 4900 5461 -20600 Stoploss Triggered

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

November 24, 2023 5
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Nifty likely to trade in the range of 19500-19850 levels…

• Nifty extended the positive momentum and tested 19800 levels last week gaining almost 1.56% in a shortened week. Sharp
recovery in global markets amid decline in US bond yields and reversal among Tech heavyweights helped Nifty to close at its
highest levels in more than a month. Broader markets have performed even better and both midcap and small cap indices gained
nearly 2.5% each and closed near life highs. Going ahead, we expect markets to consolidate a bit with immediate support near
19500 levels.
• Due to sudden weakness seen in Banking stocks in last two sessions, Nifty lost some momentum but buying was seen among other
index heavyweights restrict the losses. Recovery among banking heavyweights is crucial for fresh up move in the index. We believe
Nifty may spend some time consolidating above 19500 levels before fresh up move
• The recent recovery in the markets was triggered by short covering and FPI's net shorts have declined to 1.25 lakh contracts which
is the lowest seen in the month. Moreover, net shorts in stock futures segment have reduced significantly from 1.3 lakh contracts to
less than 10k contacts. Thus stock specific momentum is likely to continue.

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

• Due to sharp moves seen in the last couple of weeks, IVs have increased marginally but has remained below 12. With expectations
of consolidation, we believe volatility to cool-down from current levels.

Nifty options OI build-up

100
Call OI Put OI
80

60
OI in Lacs

40

20

0
19300 19400 19500 19600 19700 19800 19900 20000
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
November 24, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 6
Bank Nifty: Short covering expected only above
44000 levels…
• Banking index lost nearly 1% last week amid sharp weakness seen post RBI announcement regarding tightening of unsecured retail
lending. Banking index has declined almost 1000 points from highs and gave away all the gains of the penultimate week. Both PSU
and Private sector banks came under pressure. Going ahead, we expect 44000 is likely to act as immediate resistance for Bank Nifty
below which banking index is likely to consolidate.
• Open interest in Bank Nifty has declined sharply in the first few sessions as short covering led the move where Bank Nifty has tested
almost 44500 levels. However, post RBI announcement fresh shorts were observed in the banking index. Thus sustainability beyond
43800 will be crucial for fresh up move in the banking index.
• At the same time, aggressive writing is visible at OTM Call strikes with 43800 Call holding highest open interest base. On the other
hand, any meaningful Put base is placed at deep OTM 43000 strike. Thus fresh long in Bank Nifty should be avoided till its not
moving beyond 44000 levels.
• Fin-Nifty has also weakened along with the Bank Nifty and shed more than 0.5% last week. Considering aggressive Call writing, any

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

positive move is expected only above 19700 levels where aggressive Call writing is placed.
Bank Nifty weekly options OI build-up
4000

3500
Put OI Call OI

3000
OI in Thousands

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
42900

43000

43200

43400

43500

43700

43900

44000
43100

43300

43600

43800
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
November 24, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 7
FIIs’ net shorts in index futures remain elevated…

• Global markets continued with their recovery for the third week in a row amid risk-on sentiments. US headline indices remained buoyant
and Nasdaq closed at 2% higher. Equity and bond markets have rallied in current month on the back of easing inflation pressures which
has increase confidence that the Fed is likely done hiking interest rates.
• In domestic markets, FIIs turned net buyer after witnessing continued selling pressure of more than ₹ 5300 crores. FIIs have bought equities
worth more than ₹ 390 crores vs selling pressure seen of almost ₹3700 in the previous week. On the other hand, domestic institution
continued to remain net buyer as last week they bought equites around ₹1578 crores. Buying by both FIIs and DIIs has helped Nifty to close
with a gain of more than 1%.
• In the F&O space, FIIs finally closed some shorts in the index futures and while it is still at elevated levels, FIIs net shorts have declined to
1.40 lakh contracts as on Friday. Despite buying of more than | 1900 crores during the week, net shorts remained high. However, stock
futures seen significant closure among the short positions and now they are net long of 9000 contract against the net short of 1.3 lac
contract last week.

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

• NYMEX Crude oil is expected to find the floor near $72 mark and rise again towards the $80 mark on expectations that the OPEC+ nations
will extend its supply cuts to the next year. Further, rising expectation of pause in the Fed’s aggressive rate hike cycle would also support
the prices. Meanwhile, higher crude oil supplies from Non-OPEC nations and weaker economic numbers from China could limit the upside in
the oil to move beyond the $80 mark.
FII/DII buying in equities (in | crore)
FII DII
Date Index Fut Stock Fut Index Opt Cash Cash
13-Nov 616 -98 -18345 -1115 830
15-Nov 347 4732 -58746 684 609
16-Nov 1574 4462 -631 1303 705
17-Nov -638 1363 -9670 -478 -566

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

November 24, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 8
Rupee: likely to appreciate towards 83.00 levels

• Rupee appreciated from its all-time lows this week amid correction in the Dollar Index vs. US$INR
dollar and US treasury yields. The dollar index dipped toward the 104 mark
after softer than expected US CPI data fueled the bets that the Fed may
done with its rate hike regime. The US CPI dipped to 3.2% against previous
reading of 3.7%. The US producer price fell by most in three and half year in
October indicating ebbing inflation pressure.

• We expect USDINR to face the hurdle near 83.45 and appreciate back
towards 83.00 in the coming week amid expectation of correction in dollar.
The weaker crude oil prices would slash the import cost and significantly
reduce the dollar demand. Furthermore, the MSCI rebalancing will add $1.5b
inflows helping the rupee to regain its strength. Meanwhile, the widening
trade deficit numbers could limit further appreciation in the rupee. USDINR

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Nov future is likely to face resistance near 83.45 and move back towards
83.00

Weekly Pivot Levels US$INR options build-up

Futures S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
US$INR (Nov) 82.89 83.09 83.21 83.41 83.53
US$INR (Dec) 82.96 83.14 83.27 83.45 83.58
EURINR (Nov) 88.51 89.44 89.95 90.89 91.40
EURINR (Dec) 88.70 89.60 90.10 91.00 91.50
GBPINR (Nov) 101.01 102.16 103.00 104.15 104.98
GBPINR (Dec) 101.09 102.23 103.05 104.19 105.01
JPYINR (Nov) 54.77 55.27 55.54 56.04 56.31
JPYINR (Dec) 55.12 55.59 55.84 56.32 56.57

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 9
November 24, 2023
November 24, 2023
Source: NSE, Seediff, Bloomberg ICICI Direct Research
470
520
570
620
670
720
770
820
870
920
970

150
170
250
270

190
210
230
17-Nov-21
18-Nov-21
17-Jan-22
18-Jan-22
17-Mar-22
18-Mar-22
17-May-22
18-May-22

17-Jul-22
18-Jul-22

17-Sep-22
18-Sep-22

18-Nov-22 17-Nov-22
IRCTC

18-Jan-23 17-Jan-23
Petronet LNG

18-Mar-23 17-Mar-23

18-May-23 17-May-23

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

18-Jul-23 17-Jul-23

18-Sep-23 17-Sep-23
Recommended Stocks: Historical price performance…

17-Nov-23
10

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

 Forthcoming Events…

Date & Time (IST) Country Data & Events

Monday, November 20, 2023

6:45 AM China 1-Y & 5-Y Loan Prime Rate
Tuesday, November 21, 2023
8:30 PM US Existing Home Sales
Wednesday, November 22, 2023
12:30 AM US FOMC Meeting Minutes
7:00 AM US Unemployment Claims
7:00 AM US Durable Goods Orders m/m
8:30 PM US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
9:00 PM US Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, November 23, 2023
2:30 PM Europe Flash Manufacturing PMI

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

2:30 PM Europe Flash Services PMI
3:00 PM UK Flash Manufacturing PMI
3:00 PM UK Flash Services PMI
Friday, November 24, 2023
2:30 PM Europe German Final GDP q/q
3:30 PM Europe German ifo Business Climate
8:15 PM US Flash Manufacturing PMI
8:15 PM US Flash Services PMI

November 24, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 11

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
Derivatives Strategies: Open recommendations

Date Scrip Action Recommendation

16-Nov-23 Coromandel International Buy Positional Future : Buy CORINT NOV in the range of 1117-1123 Target 1190 and StopLoss 1084.9
17-Nov-23 Petronet LNG Sell Positional Future : Sell PETLNG (PETRONET LNG LIMITED) NOV in the range of 196-197.05 Target 184 and StopLoss 203.1.
17-Nov-23 Tata Chemical Buy Positional Future : Buy TATCHE NOV in the range of 958-962 Target 1010 and StopLoss 934

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Back

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research

November 24, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 12
Quant Picks: Open recommendations…

Date Scrip Action Price Target Stop Loss Last close Return at close Time Frame
14 Sep 23 Indusind Bank Buy 1450-1465 1590 1375 1487 1.8% 1 months
3 Nov 23 Shriram Finance Buy 1945-1965 2200 1798 1974 0.5% 3 months
6 Nov 23 PVR Buy 1620-1640 1780 1530 1655 1.5% 3 months
15 Nov 23 JSW Steel Buy 760-775 840 718 777 1.3% 3 months
16 Nov 23 Reliance Industries Buy 2340-2360 2500 2250 2394 1.4% 3 months
20 Nov 23 Sail Buy 90-91 103 83.5 90 -1.4% 3 months

Yearly Quant Picks

14 Dec 22 Hindalco Buy 455-470 590 380 502 8.5% 12 months
14 Dec 22 State Bank of India Buy 610-625 790 460 561 -8.8% 12 months

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Back
Source: NSE, Seediff, ICICI Direct Research
November 24, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 13
 Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
Third Floor, Brillanto House,
Road No 13, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
November 24, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 14
Disclaimer

I/We, , Raj Deepak Singh BE, MBA (Finance), Dipesh Dedhia BCOM, MBA (Finance), Siddhesh Jain, BFM, MBA (Finance) Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the
subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the
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Disclaimer

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November 24, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 16