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Instant Download Ebook PDF Epidemiology of Chronic Disease Global Perspectives 2nd Edition PDF Scribd
Germline Mutations and Pancreatic Cancer . . . . . . . 268 Protective Reproductive Factors and Ovarian
Somatic Mutations in Pancreatic Cancer . . . . . . . . . . 269 Cancer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306
Epigenetics of Pancreatic Cancer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269 Oral Contraceptives and Ovarian Cancer. . . . . . . . . . 306
Obesity, Diabetes Mellitus Type 2, Screening for Ovarian Cancer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306
and Pancreatic Cancer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269
Islet Cell Tumors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270 Chapter 23 Epidemiology of Cancer of
Prevention of Pancreatic Cancer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270 the Corpus Uteri: Endometrial
Cancer, Uterine Sarcoma,
Chapter 20 Epidemiology of Primary and Choriocarcinoma . . . . . . . . . . 309
Liver Cancer: Hepatocellular Global Impact of Cancer of the Corpus Uteri . . . . . . 309
Carcinoma and Malignant Tumors of the Corpus Uteri . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
Cholangiocarcinoma. . . . . . . . . . . 273 Endometrial Cancer Versus Cervical Cancer:
Cellular Origins. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
Liver Function and Anatomy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273
Trends in Endometrial Cancer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312
Hepatocellular Carcinoma
and Cholangiocarcinoma. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274 Endometrial Cancer: Postmenopausal
Age of Onset . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313
Hepatocellular Carcinoma . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274
Subtypes of Endometrial Cancer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313
Cholangiocarcinoma . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
Models of Endometrial Carcinogenesis. . . . . . . . . . . . 313
Chapter 21 Epidemiology of Risk Factors for Endometrial Cancer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
Breast Cancer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287 Summary: Epidemiology of Endometrial
Cancer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 320
Anatomy and Function of the Epidemiology of Choriocarcinoma. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 322
Mammary Gland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287
Global Burden of Breast Cancer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287 Chapter 24 Epidemiology of Cervical
Breast Cancer Detection, Staging, Cancer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327
and Survival. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288
Pathology of Breast Cancer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289 Global Burden of Cervical Cancer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327
Mechanisms of Breast Carcinogenesis. . . . . . . . . . . . . 290 Early Detection of Cervical Dysplasia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327
Risk Factors for Breast Cancer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290 Pathogenesis of Cervical Cancer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
Body Mass and Postmenopausal Breast Risk Factors for Cervical Cancer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
Cancer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292 Prevention of Cervical Cancer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332
Mammographic Breast Density and
Postmenopausal Breast Cancer Risk. . . . . . . . . . . . . 294 Chapter 25 Epidemiology of Vaginal,
Male Breast Cancer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295 Vulvar, and Anal Cancer . . . . . . . . 335
Prevention of Breast Cancer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295 Global Burden of Vaginal, Vulvar, and
Summary of Breast Cancer Epidemiology. . . . . . . . . 296 Anal Cancer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335
Human Papillomavirus in Vaginal, Vulvar,
Chapter 22 Epidemiology of Ovarian and Anal Carcinoma. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335
Cancer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301 Global Pattern of Vaginal, Vulvar, and Anal
Squamous Cell Cancers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337
Global Epidemiology of Ovarian Cancer. . . . . . . . . . . 301 Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Vaginal,
Ovarian Cancer: The “Silent Killer”. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301 Vulvar, and Anal Carcinoma. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337
Pathophysiology of the Human Ovary . . . . . . . . . . . . 301 Epidemiology of Vaginal Cancer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 338
Pathogenesis of Ovarian Cancer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302 Epidemiology of Vulvar Cancer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342
Risk Factors for Ovarian Cancer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304 Epidemiology of Anal Carcinoma . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 344
viii Contents
Prevalence and Incidence of Hyperthyroidism Obesity and Chronic Kidney Disease. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 671
and Hypothyroidism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 648 Smoking and Chronic Kidney Disease. . . . . . . . . . . . . 672
Rare Medical Emergencies of Thyroid Alcohol Abuse, Gout and Kidney Disease . . . . . . . . . 673
Dysfunction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649
Chronic Kidney Disease in Children and
Mortality Rates of Hyperthyroidism Adolescents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 673
and Hypothyroidism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649
Prevention of Chronic Kidney Disease. . . . . . . . . . . . . 674
Hyperthyroidism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 650
Tertiary Prevention of Chronic Kidney Disease. . . . . 674
Graves’ Disease . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 651
Dialysis and Renal Transplantation for
The Human Leukocyte Antigen Locus and End-Stage Renal Disease. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 674
Autoimmune Thyroiditis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 652
Hemodialysis for End-Stage Renal Disease . . . . . . . . 675
Hashimoto’s Thyroiditis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 653
Renal Transplant for End-Stage Renal Disease . . . . . 675
Iatrogenic Hyperthyroidism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 654
Peritoneal Dialysis for End-Stage Renal
Exogenous Hyperthyroidism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 654 Disease. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 675
Hypothyroidism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 654
Cretinism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 655 Chapter 45 Epidemiology of Cirrhosis
Goitrogenic Dietary Factors and of the Liver. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 681
Thyroid Disorders. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 656
Global Burden of Cirrhosis of the Liver . . . . . . . . . . . . 681
Global Impact of Iodine Deficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 656
Liver Function and Anatomy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 682
Hypothyroidism in Iodine-Replete Nations. . . . . . . . 657
Cirrhosis of the Liver: Pathology, Clinical
Iodine Deficiency in Pregnancy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 657
Symptoms, and Diagnosis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684
Prevention of Thyroid Dysfunction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 657
Pathogenesis of Cirrhosis of the Liver . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684
Prevention of Viral Hepatitis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 699
Chapter 44 Epidemiology of Chronic
Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 700
Kidney Disease . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 661
Anatomy and Function of the Kidneys . . . . . . . . . . . . 661
Chapter 46 Epidemiology of Osteoporosis. . . . 707
Glomerular Filtration Rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 661
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 707
Diagnosis of Chronic Kidney Disease. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 662
Discovery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 707
Epidemiologic Transition
of Chronic Kidney Disease . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 663 Pathogenesis of Osteoporosis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 707
Global Burden of Chronic Kidney Disease . . . . . . . . . 663 Diagnosis of Osteoporosis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 708
Cardiovascular Deaths and Chronic Kidney Bone Mineral Density and Osteoporosis. . . . . . . . . . . 708
Disease. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 664 Incidence and Prevalence of Hip Fracture. . . . . . . . . 708
Global Pattern of Chronic Kidney Disease: Survival and Mortality: Hip Fractures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 709
Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 664 Global Burden of Osteoporosis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 710
Chronic Kidney Disease in Developing Risk Factors for Osteoporosis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 711
Countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 664 Primary Prevention of Osteoporosis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 721
Chronic Kidney Disease in Developed
Countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 666
Causation of Chronic Kidney Disease. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 667
Chapter 47 Epidemiology of Arthritis . . . . . . 727
Diabetic Nephropathy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 667 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 727
Hypertensive Nephropathy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 668 Synovial Joints. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 727
Chronic Glomerulonephritis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 669 Pathogenesis of Arthritis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 728
Blood Lipids, Cholesterol, Osteoarthritis (Degenerative Joint Disease) . . . . . . . 728
and Chronic Kidney Disease . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 670 Diagnosis of Osteoarthritis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 729
Contents xiii
Preface
T
his second edition of Epidemiology of Chronic disease and aortic aneurysms, and venous thrombo-
Disease: Global Perspectives is written for all embolism and pulmonary embolism. Important new
students and teachers of the health sciences, findings are discussed, such as the association of post-
particularly those in epidemiology, public health, and traumatic stress disorder with suicide and the emerg-
medicine. Its main purpose is to present current and ing crisis of antibiotic resistance in tuberculosis and
comprehensive information on epidemiology, etiol- other chronic infections. Epidemiologic findings and
ogy, pathogenesis, risk factors, and preventive fac- references have been updated throughout this book.
tors of common chronic diseases. In writing the new Each chapter follows a similar format, with sub-
edition of this book, I have made liberal use of the sections describing diagnostic criteria, historical per-
internet and drawn upon worldwide information to spectives, the global burden of disease, population
address the global landscape of chronic diseases. differences and time trends in incidence, prevalence,
This new edition has 56 chapters that are orga- disability and mortality, mechanisms of pathogenesis,
nized into five distinct sections beginning with an risk factors, preventive factors, and opportunities for
introductory chapter on the “epidemiologic transition” disease prevention and control. Key epidemiologic
whereby chronic diseases have replaced acute infec- studies and findings are presented in chronological
tious conditions concurrent with improved health order with supporting evidence and references selected
care and increasing longevity in many populations of to guide readers for further study. It is assumed that
the world. Subsequent sections cover cardiovascular students and readers are building on a knowledge
and cerebrovascular diseases (coronary heart disease, base of basic epidemiology and human biology. The
myocardial infarction, sudden cardiac death, stroke, text blends the traditional elements of epidemiology
congestive heart failure, peripheral artery disease with human anatomy, physiology, and molecular biol-
and aortic aneurysms, venous thromboembolism ogy. The text is accompanied by an online instructor’s
and pulmonary embolism, and hypertension), major manual with recommended questions and answers
forms of cancer (lung cancer, laryngeal cancer, head drawn from each of the chapters.
and neck cancer, esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, It is my hope that the text will provide a forum for
colon cancer, pancreatic cancer, liver cancer, breast examining current hypotheses regarding chronic dis-
cancer, ovarian cancer, vulvar and vaginal cancer, ease epidemiology. Subsections of each chapter focus
cervical cancer, prostate cancer, testicular cancer and on controversial topics in the epidemiology of each
other male genital cancers, bladder cancer, kidney disease. This format facilitates active student discus-
cancer, sarcoma, malignant melanoma, lymphoma, sion of molecular mechanisms of disease pathogene-
leukemia, and brain tumors), diseases of the respi- sis and the relevant epidemiologic issues pertaining to
ratory tract (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease the prevention and control of chronic diseases.
and asthma), metabolic and digestive diseases (diabe- In essence, the new edition of this book, like the
tes mellitus, obesity, thyroid disease, kidney disease, first, is an amalgamation of a long-standing continuum
and liver disease), musculoskeletal diseases (osteo- of the exchange of ideas and information with many
porosis and arthritis), neurodegenerative diseases colleagues in the fields of medicine, public health,
(Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, schizophre- epidemiology, biostatistics, genetics, pathology, and
nia, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, and suicide), and molecular biology. This new edition will continue to
finally three major infectious diseases (tuberculosis, reflect my own experiences in medicine, epidemiol-
malaria, and HIV disease) that often manifest as ogy, and public health, and I am deeply indebted to
chronic conditions. mentors, colleagues, and particularly students who
I have added new chapters on sudden cardiac have contributed to my education, research, and
death, congestive heart failure, peripheral artery teaching over the past four decades.
xv
xvi Preface
▸▸ What Is New and Improved? ■■ Global Burden of Disease. This new edition
incorporates the most recent data from the World
Epidemiology of Chronic Disease: Global Perspectives, Health Organization, the Institute of Health Met-
Second Edition presents the current epidemiology and rics and Evaluation, the International Agency for
global burden of each of the 56 major diseases. This new Cancer Research, and other international organi-
edition contains the most recent information available zations to characterize important global patterns
on the epidemiology of major cardiovascular diseases; and trends in the epidemiology of each disease.
cancers; respiratory, metabolic, and musculoskeletal Updated world maps and figures are used to dis-
conditions; and neurodegenerative diseases complete play global patterns and trends in disease preva-
with updated figures, tables, and global maps. The lence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted
section on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular dis- life years.
ease includes four new chapters on the epidemiology ■■ U.S. Burden of Disease. Each chapter includes a
of congestive heart failure, peripheral artery disease section on the burden of disease in the U.S. pop-
and aortic dissection, venous thromboembolism and ulation based on current data from the National
pulmonary embolism, and sudden cardiac death. The Institutes of Health, the American Heart Asso-
new epidemiology of cancer section contains widely ciation, the American Cancer Society, and other
updated materials to provide in-depth information on national organizations.
cancers that affect 28 regions of the body. ■■ Risk Factors. Published studies from the recent
literature are discussed regarding new findings on
■■ New Chapters. The new edition includes 13 new
risk factors and preventive factors that impact the
chapters to include more information on Epide-
pathogenesis of disease.
miology of Sudden Cardiac Death (Chapter 5),
■■ Pathogenesis. Current mechanisms of pathogen-
Epidemiology of Heart Failure (Chapter 7),
esis of each disease are discussed and depicted in
Epidemiology of Aortic Aneurysm and Dissec-
each chapter.
tion (Chapter 8), and Epidemiology of Venous
■■ Disease Prevention and Control. The most recent
Thromboembolism and Pulmonary Embolism
and effective programs of disease prevention and
(Chapter 9). There are also nine new chapters on
control are presented in each chapter.
cancer epidemiology including Epidemiology of
■■ Instructor Resources. Instructors using the text will
Laryngeal Cancer (Chapter 14), Epidemiology
have online access to updated lecture slides, outlines,
of Cancers of the Lip, Oral Cavity, and Pharynx
and test banks with answers for each chapter.
(Chapter 15), Epidemiology of Cancer of the
Corpus Uteri (Chapter 23), Epidemiology of
Vaginal, Vulvar, and Anal Cancer (Chapter 25), Randall E. Harris, MD, PhD
Epidemiology of Testicular Cancer (Chapter 27), Professor, Colleges of Public Health and Medicine
Epidemiology of Carcinoma of the External Male Director, Center of Molecular Epidemiology &
Genitalia (Chapter 28), Epidemiology of Cancers Environmental Health
of the Thyroid and Parathyroid (Chapter 31), Division of Epidemiology & Departments of
Epidemiology of Adrenal Cancer (Chapter 32), Pathology & Emergency Medicine
and Epidemiology of Nonmelanoma Skin Can- The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center
cer (Chapter 34). Columbus, Ohio
© Andrew Brookes/Getty Images
Contributors
Susanne K. Scott, PhD, MPH Zachary M. Harris, MD, Fellow
Belgium, Wisconsin Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine
Department of Internal Medicine
Yale School of Medicine
Yale University
New Haven, Connecticut
xvii
SECTION I
Epidemiologic
Transition and
Epidemiology of
Cardiovascular
Diseases
CHAPTER 1 Global Epidemiology of Chronic Diseases:
The Epidemiologic Transition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
CHAPTER 2 Global Epidemiology of Cardiovascular Disease. . . . 27
CHAPTER 3 Epidemiology of Ischemic (Coronary)
Heart Disease. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
CHAPTER 4 Epidemiology of Myocardial Infarction. . . . . . . . . . . 57
CHAPTER 5 Epidemiology of Sudden Cardiac Death . . . . . . . . . . 75
CHAPTER 6 Epidemiology of Stroke (Cerebral Infarction). . . . . . 85
CHAPTER 7 Epidemiology of Heart Failure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
© Andrew Brookes/Getty Images
1
2 Section I Epidemiologic Transition and Epidemiology of Cardiovascular Diseases
CHAPTER 1
Global Epidemiology of Chronic
Diseases: The Epidemiologic
Transition
communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional
▸▸ Global Pandemic of Chronic diseases, whereas the annual number of deaths from
Diseases injury has remained stable (Ritchie & Roser, 2018;
A
WHO, 2009a, 2017c).
silent pandemic of chronic diseases is gradually The following excerpts from the 2008 WHO global
enveloping the world population, spreading to report entitled Preventing Chronic Diseases: A Vital
all corners of the globe. This distinct spectrum Investment capture the essence of the global pandemic
of human afflictions is systemically replacing infectious of chronic diseases (Reprinted from WHO, 2008a).
and parasitic diseases as the leading cause of morbidity
and mortality worldwide, thereby producing one of the “Chronic diseases are the leading causes of death
greatest public health challenges of all time. Accord- and disability worldwide. Disease rates from these
ing to global cause-specific mortality data reported conditions are accelerating globally, advancing
by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation non- across every region and pervading all socioeconomic
communicable (chronic) disorders such as coronary classes. The World Health Report 2002 “Reducing
heart disease, stroke, cancer, chronic obstructive pul- Risks, Promoting Healthy Life” indicates that the
monary disease (COPD), diabetes mellitus type 2, neu- mortality, morbidity and disability attributed to the
rodegenerative disease, and renal failure accounted for major chronic diseases currently account for almost
39.5 million of the 54.7 million deaths (72%) for which 60% of all deaths and 43% of the global burden
a cause was identified during 2016 (Ritchie & Roser, of disease. By 2020 their contribution is expected
2018). This compares with 10.6 million deaths (19%) to rise to 73% of all deaths and 60% of the global
due to communicable (infectious) diseases, maternal, burden of disease. Moreover, 79% of the deaths
neonatal, and nutritional diseases, and 4.6 million attributed to these diseases occur in the develop-
deaths (8%) from injury including homicide, suicide, ing countries. Four of the most prominent chronic
conflict, and terrorism. As shown in FIGURE 1.1, trends diseases, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), cancer,
in the annual number of deaths in these three cate- chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD),
gories during 1990–2016 reflect a steady increase in and type 2 diabetes, are linked by common and pre-
annual deaths from noncommunicable diseases con- ventable biological risk factors, notably high blood
current with a steady decline in annual deaths from pressure, high blood cholesterol and overweight, and
3
4 Chapter 1 Global Epidemiology of Chronic Diseases: The Epidemiologic Transition
45
39.5
40
35.8
34
35 32
Millions of Deaths
30
30 27
25
20
15.4 15.1 14.8 14.1
15 12.7
10.6
10
4.2 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.6
5
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2016
Year
FIGURE 1.1 Global Trends in Deaths from Noncommunicable and Communicable Diseases and Injuries, 1990–2016.
Data from WHO. (2009a). World health statistics, 2009. Geneva, Switzerland: WHO; WHO. (2017). World health statistics, 2017. Geneva, Switzerland: WHO; Ritchie, H., & Roser, M. (2018). “Causes of Death”. Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from https://
ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death [Online Resource]
by related major behavioral risk factors: unhealthy estimated that the world population consisted of
diet, physical inactivity, and tobacco use. Action to 7.55 billion living human beings (World Population
prevent these major chronic diseases should focus Prospects, 2017). In that year, approximately 60 million
on controlling these and other key risk factors in a people died and 140 million new babies were born, a
well-integrated manner.” net gain of 80 million people. Based upon projections
of death rates and birth rates, the world population is
The global pandemic of chronic diseases has expected to increase to nearly 9 billion people by the
emerged in concert with the changing demography year 2040 (FIGURE 1.2).
of the world population. Overall, the world birth rate
exceeds the death rate, and the number of living indi-
viduals on the planet continues to increase. At the same ▸▸ Aging of the World Population
time, more and more people are living to older ages
thereby creating the phenomenon of “global aging.” The world population is not only increasing in num-
Aging populations are particularly evident in the indus- ber, but it is also growing older. Two demographic
trialized and developed nations of the world, such as parameters are driving these phenomena: longevity
Japan, Italy, and Germany, where the proportion of is increasing and the fertility rate is decreasing. Stud-
elderly people (over 65 years of age) has increased from ies at the World Health Organization (WHO, 2009a)
approximately 10% to 20% in the past half century and the Stanford Center of Longevity (Hayutin, 2007)
(Hayutin, 2007). In large developing nations such as clearly show that people around the world are living
China and India, the proportion of elderly people is also longer and women are having fewer children.
expected to increase from current levels of about 5% to
nearly 10% in the next few decades. In smaller under-
developed nations where less than 5% of the people
▸▸ Increasing Longevity
currently live beyond 65 years of age, population aging (Life Expectancy)
is also progressing, but at a slower pace. As a general
consequence of the aging world population, long-term The average life expectancy (also called longevity)
mechanisms of pathogenesis are more likely to cause for members of the world population born during
disease late in life, thus resulting in vastly increased 2010–2015 is 71 years (68 years for men and 73
rates of chronic diseases, particularly among the elderly. years for women) (CIA, 2017). In the past half cen-
tury, life expectancy has increased dramatically
throughout the world, particularly in populations
▸▸ Increase in World Population of developing nations. Since 1950, life expectancy in
highly populated nations such as China and India
As of July 1, 2017, The Department of Economic has increased from approximately 40 years to nearly
and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat 70 years (FIGURE 1.3).
Increasing Longevity (Life Expectancy) 5
9
8
7
Billions of People
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1800 1850 1900 1950 1975 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
90
85
80
Life Expectancy (Years)
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Calendar Year
In lesser developed nations, particularly those of Derivation of life expectancy is usually presented as
central Africa where acute infectious and parasitic a “two-step” process. For large populations, life expec-
diseases prevail and greatly reduce the survival of chil- tancy is calculated by first constructing a life table and
dren and young adults, life expectancy is much less, recording the number of deaths and survivors that occur
currently only about 50 years. In highly developed in a given year for successive intervals of the life span.
nations such as Japan, the United States, and European The number of deaths and survivors and correspond-
countries, longevity now approaches or surpasses 80 ing age-specific death rates are usually tabulated for
years and deaths are more likely due to chronic dis- ages 0–1 years, 1–5 years, and successive 5-year age
eases of old age. The Japanese people currently enjoy groups for ages 5 and above. From these data, a second
the greatest longevity, about 82 years. Longevity in life table is then constructed to represent the entire
the United States currently stands at 79 years, only mortality experience from birth to death for a hypo-
slightly higher than the average of the more developed thetical cohort of 100,000 infants born alive and sub-
nations (FIGURE 1.4). ject to the age-specific death rates that prevail in the
Life expectancy is the average number of years population of interest for a particular year. Using the
that a newborn could expect to live if he or she were data from this second life table for 100,000 hypotheti-
to pass through life subject to the age-specific death cal individuals, life expectancy is simply calculated as
rates of the population of interest for the past year. the average years of life for all members since birth
6 Chapter 1 Global Epidemiology of Chronic Diseases: The Epidemiologic Transition
(e.g., life expectancy = total years of life for all mem- fetuses. While precise causative factors for this dispar-
bers of the life table divided by the total number of per- ity remain unclear, the relatively high rates of sponta-
sons at birth, Life Expectancy = Σ years of life/100,000). neous abortions, miscarriages, and stillbirths among
Life expectancy (longevity) at birth is therefore the male fetuses could be due to hormonal incompatibil-
mean years of life for individuals based entirely on the ities of the male genotype in a milieu of female hor-
age-specific death rates for the population and year of mones such as estrogen and progesterone throughout
interest (Colton, 1974). gestation (Austad, 2006). At the other end of the life
span, approximately 70% of individuals over 90 years
of age are female, and remarkably, about 90% of cente-
▸▸ Gender Differences narians (individuals over 100 years of age) are female
in Longevity (Perls, Hutter Silver, & Lauerman, 1999).
While no single factor can satisfactorily explain the
Throughout the world, life expectancy (longevity) for clear survival advantage of women throughout life, cer-
women is 5–10 years greater than for men. With some tain environmental and biological differences are worth
exceptions in nations where high maternal death rates pointing out. The longer life span of women compared
prevail due to lack of prenatal care, women have lower to men is undoubtedly related to gender differences in
death rates and better survival at every age. In the lifestyle. Despite the fact that men are, on average, bigger,
industrialized world, improvements in prenatal care stronger, faster, and more economically self-sufficient,
have reduced maternal mortality during the child- their lifestyle choices and risky health behaviors obvi-
bearing years thereby widening the gender gap in lon- ously confer a clear survival advantage to women. In
gevity during much of the 20th century. For example, general, men have greater exposure to classical risk
the gender divergence in longevity in the U.S. popula- factors of disease such as tobacco and alcohol and, as a
tion gradually increased from about 2 years in 1900 to consequence, are more likely to die earlier from associ-
approximately 8 years in 1970, after which the differ- ated chronic conditions such as cardiovascular disease,
ence shrank back to about 6 years, currently 81 years lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,
for women versus 75 years for men (FIGURE 1.5). The and cirrhosis of the liver. Men are also more likely to
slight shrinkage of the U.S. gender gap during the past die from injuries, whether unintentional (motor vehi-
40 years is believed to reflect equalizing smoking rates cle or occupational accidents) or intentional (suicide,
among men and women (Pampel, 2002). homicide, or war). Reciprocally, women have tradition-
The survival differential favoring females actually ally been the “sentinels of health” for their families and
begins at conception. Only about 90% of male fetuses communities at large. Due to their instinctive “nurtur-
survive to birth compared to nearly 100% of female ing maternal instinct,” women tend to take better care
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Language: English
With an Introduction by
COULSON KERNAHAN
AUTHOR OF ‘THE FACE BEYOND THE DOOR,’
‘GOD AND THE ANT,’ ETC.
LONDON
CHARLES H. KELLY
25-35 CITY ROAD, AND 26 PATERNOSTER ROW, E.C.
First Edition, 1913
To
THE MEMORY OF
MY FATHER
CONTENTS
CHAP. PAGE
INTRODUCTION BY COULSON KERNAHAN 9
I. ‘HUMBLY TO CONFESS’ 17
II. BOOKS AND GARDENS 27
III. BOOKS THAT TEMPT 37
IV. ‘OUTSIDE THEIR BOOKS’ 47
V. BOOKS THAT CAPTIVATE 55
VI. PERSONALITIES IN ‘BOOKLAND’ 63
VII. SECOND-HAND BOOKS 73
VIII. ‘THE CULT OF THE BOOKPLATE’ 81
IX. BEDSIDE BOOKS 91
X. OLD FRIENDS 99
XI. THROUGH ROSE-COLOURED SPECTACLES 107
XII. WITH NATURE 117
XIII. A PILGRIMAGE 127
XIV. FAREWELL 137
INTRODUCTION
BY COULSON KERNAHAN
I
PART of the present volume appeared in Great Thoughts. Yet here
am I, whose name is associated—if at all—in the memory of readers
with ‘little thoughts,’ and with booklets impudent in the slenderness
of their matter, presumptuously standing forth to bow the public into
the writer’s presence, and essaying to introduce the one to the other.
The necessary explanation shall be brief. I must have been a young
man, and Mr. E. Walter Walters a boy, when he and I last met;
indeed I am not sure that I altogether remember him. But his father,
who bore an honoured name, I well remember.
The Rev. W. D. Walters and my own dear and honoured father were
personal friends; and when the former’s son sent me a manuscript of
a book, with the request that I should write an introduction, how
could I do otherwise than accede, and express myself honoured by
the invitation?
That I share all Mr. Walters’s whole-hearted bookish enthusiasm, I
may not pretend, for, as R. L. Stevenson says, in An Apology for
Idlers, ‘Books are good enough in their own way, but they are a
mighty bloodless substitute for life.’ So long, however, as the reading
of it be not allowed to deprive either man or woman of drinking deep
at the wells of life, there are few greater joys, for young or old, than
are to be found within the covers of a noble book; and to the
enthusiastic book-lover, Mr. Walters’s volume should prove treasure
trove indeed.
He drags (to use a phrase of Stevenson’s) with a wide net, but his
castings are made, for the most part, in the same waters. Of the
literature of the time of Elizabeth, or even of Anne, he tells us little,
and it is not until we come to Goldsmith, Lamb, De Quincey, Leigh
Hunt, and, later, to Jefferies, Thoreau, and Stevenson, that Mr.
Walters may be said to let himself go. What my friend Mr. Le
Gallienne calls The Lilliput of Literary London, he wisely leaves
severely alone.
That Mr. Walters has a pretty sense of humour is clear from the
following passage:
‘Here is a copy of Milton’s Paradise Lost, “hooked” in the deep
waters of a “penny tub.” It is calf-bound, mark you, and in fairish
condition, though much stained with the passing of years. My heart
leaps; it is very old—a first edition possibly! But no, it is anything but
that.... Many of the pages are entirely missing, and others partially
so. Judged by the books that surround me it is dear at a penny ...
Paradise Lost!’
The word-play is not unworthy of Mr. Zangwill; but when Mr. Walters
writes, ‘I have frequently trodden snow-covered ground with my nose
a few inches from an open book,’ I wish him, for the time being,
‘Good afternoon’ and seek other company, preferably that of some
lover of the Emerson who wrote:
Humbly to confess
A penitential loneliness.
I have confessed that the books which please me most are the
books that speak to the heart—books that greet one with the ease
and familiarity of a friend. I desire to feel the humanity, the heart of
an author. I desire to know that he is genial, kindly, well-disposed. I
have no inclination for angry, fretful men of letters. I no more desire
to meet such through the medium of a book, than I desire to make
the acquaintance of quarrelsome individuals in the flesh. I, too, ‘find
myself facing as stoutly as I can a hard, combative existence, full of
doubts, difficulties, and disappointments, quite a hard enough life
without dark countenances at my elbow.’ Give me pleasant
company. Give me gentlemen of letters. Still, I have no taste for the
company of the maudlin or weak-kneed. Robert Louis Stevenson
says that ‘we are all for tootling on the sentimental flute in literature;
and not a man amongst us will go to the head of the march to sound
the heady drums!’ Note with what grace he makes the observation! It
is more in the nature of a good-tempered laugh than a growl. How
gracefully he wears the title—a Gentleman of Letters! How
pleasantly he addresses us! Little wonder if, in his presence, our
failings are as open wounds. He has no need to probe. His gentlest
touch is sufficient, more effective by far than the rough treatment of
the irascible author.