APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL ON TYPHOD FEVER AT OAU TEACHING

HOSPITAL COMPLEX, ILE-IFE, OSUN STATE. (2011 – 2020)

BY

ADEMILUYI, SODIQ ADEDAMOLA

MATRICULATION NUMBER: 1911320003

BEING A PROJECT PRESENTED TO

THE DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS
FACULTY OF PURE AND APPLIED SCIENCES
OSUN STATE COLLEGE OF TECHNOLOGY, ESA-OKE

IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT FOR THE REQUIREMENT OF THE AWARD OF

HIGHER NATIONAL DIPLOMA (HND) IN STATISTICS

SEPTEMBER, 2021.

1
 CERTIFICATION

This is to certify that this project was written and presented by Ademiluyi, Sodiq

Adedamola of matriculation number 1911320003 to the Department of Mathematics and

Statistics, in partial fulfillment for the award of Higher National Diploma (HND) in Statistics,

Osun State College of Technology, Esa - Oke.

________________________ ____________________

Ademiluyi, Sodiq Adedamola Date

Student

________________________ ____________________

Mr. Adeyeri, L.O Date

Supervisor

________________________ ____________________

Mrs. Akin-Awoniran, B.O Date

Head Of Department

2
 DEDICATION

This project is dedicated to Almighty God for given me the grace and opportunity to

participate in this Higher National Diploma Programme and helped me to end it successfully.

3
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

My appreciation goes to the Almighty God who has spared my life up to this very

moment, especially the kind of grace given unto me to complete my HND program without any

delay. And for the inspiration and support towards the success of this project.

My sincere appreciation goes to my project supervisor in person of Mr. Adeyeri, L.O, the

current Deputy Rector of Osun State College of Technology, Esa-Oke. for Creating time out of

none to check my project thoroughly, may God bless you sir.

I acknowledge my H.O.D in person of Mrs. Akin-Awoniran, B.O for her encouragement

towards the success of my programme and I also appreciate the effort of all the lecturers in our

department, may the lord bless you all.

I acknowledge the effort my lovely Parents, Mr and Mrs Ademiluyi, for their love, care,

prayer, support in all ramifications, financially, morally, spiritually and many more, I pray that

you shall live long to eat the fruit of your labour, Ameen. I say very big thanks.

Additionally, I appreciate the effort of amiable friends that has been there for me since,

and my well-wishers, I say a big thanks to you all.

4
 ABSTRACT

The aim of the project is to examine the trends of typhoid fever at Obafemi Awolowo

Teaching Hospital, Ile-Ife, Osun State, between 2011 and 2020. This project covers recorded

case of typhoid fever for a period of ten years (2011 – 2020) at OA U Teaching Hospital, Ile-Ife,

Osun State. The ACF (autocorrelation) function is positive for all means that is significant

relationship in the number of years and the incrementing the typhoid. Generally we fit

ARIMA(0,0,0), (1,1,1) and (3,0,0) among all these we see that ARIMA (1,1,1) fit the data best,

the model for the prediction of future occurrence is generally written as I = y 1t = y t − y t −1. From

the model above we conclude that the number of typhoid decreases annually. It also shown from

the trend that the typhoid fever decreases as the year increases.

5
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

TITLE PAGE i

CERTIFICATION ii

DEDICATION iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT iv

ABSTRACT v

TABLE OF CONTENTS vi

LIST OF TABLES viii

LIST OF FIGURE ix

ABBREVIATION AND ACRONYMS/DEFINITION OF TERMS x

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND TO STUDY 1

1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM 3

1.3 AIM OF THE STUDY 4

1.4 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY 4

1.5 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY 4

1.6 SCOPE OF THE STUDY 4

1.7 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY 4

6
1.8 DEFINITION OF TERMS 5

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 6

2.2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 7

2.3 EMPIRICAL REVIEW 8

CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY

3.1 INTRODUCTION 10

3.2 ARIMA MODEL 10

CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF DATA

4.1 PRESENTATION OF DATA 11

4.2 ANALYSIS OF DATA 12

CHAPTER FIVE: SUMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1 SUMMARY OF RESULTS 15

5.2 CONCLUSION 16

5.3 RECOMMENDATION 16

5.4 CONTRIBUTION TO KNOWLEDGE 17

REFERENCES 18

APPENDIX 21

7
 LIST OF TABLES

Table 4.1.1 Yearly Records of Child Mortality 11

Table 4.2.1a: Model Descriptive of ARIMA (0,0,0) 12

Table 4.2.1b: Model Statistics of ARIMA (0,0,0) 12

Table 4.2.2a: Model Descriptive of ARIMA (1,0,0) 12

Table 4.2.2b: Model Statistics of ARIMA (1,0,0) 13

Table 4.2.3a: Model Descriptive of ARIMA (3,0,0) 13

Table 4.2.3b: Model Statistics of ARIMA (3,0,0) 13

Table 4.2.4a: Model Descriptive of ARIMA (1,1,1) 14

Table 4.2.4b: Model Statistics of ARIMA (1,1,1) 14

8
 LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 4.2 Time Plot 14

9
 ABBREVIATION AND ACRONYMS

ARIMA →Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average.

AR →Autoregressive

I → Integrated.

MA → Moving Average.

10
 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND TO STUDY

Typhoid fever caused by Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. typhi) remains a major

health problem globally. It affects about 21.7 million people, with 217,000 deaths occurring

worldwide on an annual basis [Crump and Mintz (2010)]. Transmission of the bacterium is

mainly through ingestion of fiscal contaminated food and water [Gonzalez-Escobedo, Marshall,

and Gunn (2011)]. Typhoid and paratyphoid germs are passed in the faeces and urine of infected

people. The infection is contracted after eating food or drinking that have been handled by an

infected person.

The disease is characterized by prolonged fever, bacterial replication in the reticulo-

endothelial system (RES) and significant inflammation of the lymphoid organs of the small

intestine [Everest, etal (2011)]. In developing countries, typhoid fever causes at least 5% of all

deaths, with markedly different rates where typhoid fever is endemic. The reasons for these

differences in disease severity are not known but may be related to differences in health care

facilities, host immune responses, genetic factors in the strains of Salmonella enterica

serovar Typhi circulating in areas of endemicity [Zhu, etal (2016)]. The thrust of the study

was to assess the possible influence of selected socio-demographic factors which often

predispose people to infections on typhoid fever disease frequency in the studied areas.

In 2010, the global estimate of typhoid fever caused by Salmonella enterica serovar

Typhi (S. Typhi) was estimated to be 26.9 million cases with 217,000 deaths recorded. This es-

11
timate was adjusted for blood culture sensitivity based on a conservative assumption of 50%

[Buckle etal, (2012)] and [Breiman et al., (2012)].

However, only Egypt and South Africa contributed to this estimate for the African

continent. A previous global estimate of the burden of typhoid fever indicated that south-central

and east-central Asia had the highest incidences of typhoid fever with more than 100 cases per

100,000 people annually; Africa was estimated to have a medium incidence (10–100 cases per

100,000), [Marks et al., (2017)]. The estimated number of typhoid fever cases in low- and

middle- income countries in 2010 after adjusting for water-related risk was 11.9 million (95%

confidence interval: 9.9–14.7) cases with 129,000 (75,000–208,000) deaths [Mogasale, 2014].

It is clear that the incidence of typhoid fever in Africa is still not yet well understood

[Antill, 2017]. Out-of-sample validation of the model against data from nine Typhoid Fever

Surveillance in Africa Program sites showed that the model has mixed success in predicting

incidence for locations outside the estimation sample, [Antillon, 2017]. The paucity of

epidemiological data regarding invasive Salmonella disease in sub-Saharan Africa led the World

Health Organization (WHO) to call for a continent-wide approach in generating more accurate

disease incidence and antimicrobial susceptibility data in 2008. [WHO 2006]

In Nigeria, typhoid fever remains a major disease because of factors such as increased

urbanization, inadequate supplies of potable water, regional movement of large numbers of

immigrant workers, inadequate facilities for processing human waste, overburdened healthcare

delivery systems, and overuse use of antibiotics that contribute to the development and spread of

antibiotic-resistant Typhi.[ Talabi,2014] and [Akinyemi, 2005]

12
 However, the true incidence of typhoid fever is difficult to evaluate in Nigeria because of

the lack of a proper coordinated epidemiological surveillance system. Never-the less,

information on typhoid fever prevalence has been documented by several researchers in some

states in Nigeria ranging from 0.071% in Oyo to 47.1% in Osun. [Akinyemi, 2005] Blood

culture–positive typhoidal Salmonella remains the pivotal determinant to estimate true burden.

Unfortunately, only few hospitals, specifically, referral hospitals, perform blood culture for

diagnosing typhoid cases. The rate of hospitalization and prolonged illness of patients with

typhoid fever in high-burden regions due to treatment failure with empirical therapy is a

continuing public health concern. [WHO 2016] Since the early1990s, the spread of multiple

drug–resistant (MDR) S. Typhi strains (resistant to first-line drugs: ampicillin, chloramphenicol-

col, and trimethoprim–sulfamethoxazole), and more recently, ciprofloxacin have been observed

in parts of Asia and Africa, making the treatment of typhoid fever more challenging. [WHO

2016] Over the years, a similar resistance pattern was observed in Nigeria. Currently, the two

internationally licensed typhoid vaccines have not yet been considered for incorporation into the

Expanded Immunization Program of health policy in Nigeria. An additional barrier to reducing

typhoid fever incidence in Nigeria is the lack of access to safe drinking water and improved

sanitation facilities [Hall, 2014].

The present study was undertaken to generate comprehensive and reliable data on S.

Typhi blood culture positivity with a view to outline the longitudinal trends of typhoid fever in

parallel with key contextual factors and to assess the trends of antimicrobial resistance in S.

Typhi in Nigeria

1.2 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

13
 Typhoid fever is a systematic diseases and common worldwide illness, transmitted by

agent of infection, which creates a very serious public health problem in many underdeveloped

and developing countries, this study needs to examine the trend of typhoid fever recorded at

Obafemi Awolowo Teaching Hospital, Ile-Ife, Osaun State,

1.3 AIM OF THE STUDY

The aim of the project is to examine the trends of typhoid fever at Obafemi Awolowo

Teaching Hospital, Ile-Ife, Osun State, between 2011 and 2020.

1.4 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The Objectives are to:

(a) Estimate the trend of typhoid fever over the period of considerable years (2011 - 2020).

(b) Fit the ARIMA models for the trend of typhoid fever for periods.

(c) Examine which of the models is best fit; AR (1), I (0) and MA (1) for typhoid fever.

1.5 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

The significance of health problem imposed by typhoid fever in this part of the world

makes it a serious health issue that requires adequate attention and care, this study will help the

hospital management, the state government and the general public to know the particular months

or quarter of the year that were mostly affected by typhoid fever in order to carryout enlighten

campaign towards reducing the incidence of the disease..

1.6 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

14
 This project covers recorded case of typhoid fever for a period of ten years (2011 – 2020)

at OA U Teaching Hospital, Ile-Ife, Osun State.

1.7 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

The major limitation of this study was basically on the collection of data and information

is regarded as confidential.

1.8 DEFINITION OF TERMS

ARIMA →Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average.

ARIMA (0, 1, 2) model →damped Holt’s model

ARIMA (0, 0, 0) model →a white noise model

ARIMA (0. 1, 1) model without constant is a basic expression smoothing model

ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model→ Which is equivalent to Holt’s linear method with additive errors, or

double exponential smoothing.

15
 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Raymond, (2007) suggested that the following two questions must be answered to

identify the data series in a time series analysis: (1) whether the data are random; and (2) have

any trends? This is followed by another three steps of model identification, parameter estimation

and testing for model validity. If a series is random, the correlation between successive values in

a time series is close to zero. If the observations of time series are statistically dependent on

each another, then the ARIMA is appropriate for the time series analysis.

Meyler et al (2010) drew a framework for ARIMA time series models for

forecasting Irish inflation. In their research, they emphasized heavily on optimizing forecast

performance while focusing more on minimizing out-of-sample forecast errors rather than

maximizing in-sample ‘goodness of fit’. Stergiou (2014) in his research used ARIMA model

technique on a 17 years' time series data (from 1964 to 1980 and 204 observations) of

monthly catches of pilchard (Sardina pilchardus) from Greek waters for forecasting up to 12

months ahead and forecasts were compared with actual data for 1981 which was not used in

the estimation of the parameters. The research found mean error as 14% suggesting that ARIMA

procedure was capable of forecasting the complex dynamics of the Greek pilchard fishery,

which, otherwise, was difficult to predict because of the year-to-year changes in oceanographic

and biological conditions. Contreras et al (2013) in their study, using ARIMA methodology,

16
provided a method to predict next-day electricity prices both for spot markets and long-

term contracts for mainland Spain and Californian markets. In fact a plethora of research studies

is available to justify that a careful and precise selection of ARIMA model can be fitted to

the time series data of single variable (with any kind of pattern in the series and with

autocorrelations between the successive values in the time series) to forecast, with better

accuracy, the future values in the series. This study is also an attempt to predict the future

production values of sugarcane in India by fitting ARIMA technique on the time series data of

past 62 years’ production.

2.2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Model:

ARIMA models are a class of models that have capabilities to represent stationary as well

as non-stationary time series and to produce accurate forecasts based on a description of

historical data of single variable. Since it does not assume any particular pattern in the historical

data of the time series that is to be forecast, this model is very different from other models used

for forecasting. The approach of Box-Jenkins methodology in order to build ARIMA models is

based on the following steps:

(1) Model Identification, (2) Parameter Estimation and Selection, (3) Diagnostic Checking (or

Modal Validation); and (4) Model's use. Model identification involves determining the orders (p,

d, and q) of the AR and MA components of the model. Basically it seeks the answers for

whether data is stationary or non-stationary? What is the order of differentiation (d), which

makes the time stationary?

2.3 EMPIRICAL REVIEW

17
Time Series Analysis and Building ARIMA

Since we already have discussed that to build an ARIMA model for forecasting of a

variable requires following steps: 1) Model Identification, (2) Parameter Estimation and

Selection, and (3) Diagnostic Checking (or Modal Validation); before we can (4) use the Model

for forecasting application. We, therefore, will first try to identify the model for fitness.

Model Identification

First stage of ARIMA model building is to identify whether the variable, which is being

forecasted, is stationary in time series or not. By stationary we mean, the values of variable over

time varies around a constant mean and variance. The time plot of the sugarcane production

data in Picture 1 above clearly shows that the data is not stationary (actually, it shows an

increasing trend in time series). The ARIMA model cannot be built until we make this series

stationary. We first have to difference the time series ‘d’ times to obtain a stationary series in

order to have an ARIMA(p, d, q) model with ‘d’ as the order of differencing used. The best idea

is to start with differencing with lowest order (of first order, d=1) and test the data for unit root

problems.

18
 CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY

3.1 INTRODUCTION

The data to be used for this study will be from Obafemi Awolowo University Teaching

Hospital in Ile-Ife, Osun State in southwest Nigeria and the statistical tools to be used is ARIMA

model.

3.2 ARIMA MODEL

ARIMA stands for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. This model is the

combination of Auto-regression, a Moving average method and Differencing (Integration).

Where differencing is used to remove the trend in a time series and make it a stationary. The AR

part of ARIMA indicates that the evolving variable of interest is regressed on its own lagged (i.e

prior) values. The MA part indicates that the regression error is actually a linear combination of

error terms whose values occurred contemporaneously and at various time in past.

For example ARIMA (1,0,0) is AR (1); ARIMA (0,1,0) is I(1); ARIMA (0,0,1) is MA(1).

 An ARIMA (0, 1, 0) model (or I (1) model is given by;

X t = X t−1 +ε t which is simply a random work.

 An ARIMA (0, 1, 2) model is damped Holt’s model

 An ARIMA (0, 0, 0) model is a white noise model

 An ARIMA (0. 1, 1) model without constant is a basic expression smoothing model

 An ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model is given by:

19
 X t =e X t −1 −X t −2+ ( ∝+ β−2 ) ε t −1+ ( 1−α ) ε t −2 + ε t

Which is equivalent to Holt’s linear method with additive errors, or double exponential

smoothing.

For the purpose of this research, Box-Jekins approach is used.

ARIMA (p1, q) → X t −∝1 X t−1 …−∝ P X t− P =ε t +θ1 ε t

1 1

Differencing → ∇ y = y t − y t −1
t

∇ y =∇ ∇ y ¿ ∇ ( y t− y t−1 ) ¿ y t −2 y t−1 + y t−2

2
t t

20
 CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF DATA

4.1 PRESENTATION OF DATA

Table 4.1.1: The table below shows the cases of typhoid fever recorded at OAU Teaching

Hospital, Ile-Ife, from 2011 to 2020.

Year
Age
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0-11 mths 3 2 4 1 4 1 26 11 15 18

1-4 7 5 10 8 5 10 96 104 76 132

5-9 5 10 9 8 3 23 37 112 129 94

10-14 9 9 11 13 10 10 45 122 100 117

15-19 8 11 12 12 7 27 32 106 112 114

20-24 6 12 11 6 12 32 25 143 121 122

25-29 7 8 9 9 12 15 52 95 78 125

30-34 10 10 13 11 6 19 50 36 49 82

35-39 2 7 5 5 2 15 27 90 67 53

40-44 7 5 9 8 2 10 20 50 42 60

45-49 4 8 12 13 3 16 28 54 50 71

50-54 1 5 4 6 3 4 28 41 40 52

55-59 3 3 5 3 4 6 20 85 65 62

60-64 4 1 3 6 7 2 16 40 38 28

65-69 1 3 2 2 1 5 15 31 30 21

70+ 4 3 5 6 6 13 31 75 51 48

Source: Obafemi Awolowo University Teaching Hospital, Ile-Ife, Osun State (2021).

21
4.2 ANALYSIS OF DATA

Table 4.2.1a: Model Description

Model Type

Model
age Model_1 ARIMA(0,0,0)
ID

Table 4.2.1b: Model Statistics

Model Number of Model Fit statistics Ljung-Box Q(18) Number

Predictors Stationary R- RMSE Statistics DF Sig. of

squared Outliers

age-
10 .937 1.213E-005 . 0 . 0
Model_1

Table 4.2.2a: Model Description

Model Type

Model
age Model_1 ARIMA(1,0,0)
ID

22
 Table 4.2.2b: Model Statistics

Model Number of Model Fit statistics Ljung-Box Q(18) Number of

Predictors Stationary R- RMSE Statistics DF Sig. Outliers

squared

age-Model_1 10 .985 7.232 . 0 . 0

Table 4.2.3a: Model Description

Model Type

Model
age Model_1 ARIMA(3,0,0)
ID

Table 4.2.3b: Model Statistics

Model Number of Model Fit statistics Ljung-Box Q(18) Number

Predictors Stationary R- RMSE Statistics DF Sig. of

squared Outliers

age-Model_1 10 .830 26.423 . 0 . 0

23
 Table 4.2.4a: Model Description

Model Type
Model
agee Model_1 ARIMA(1,1,1)
ID

Table 4.2.4b: Model Statistics

Model Number of Model Fit statistics Ljung-Box Q(18) Number

Predictors Stationary R- RMSE Statistics DF Sig. of
squared Outliers
agee-Model_1 10 .955 .438 . 0 . 0

Figure 4.2: Time plot

100%

90%

80%

70% Series10
Series9
60% Series8
Series7
50% Series6
40% Series5
Series4
30% Series3
Series2
20% Series1
10%

0%
Age 0.2 2- 9- 14- 15- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70+
Jan May Oct 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69

24
 CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND INTERPRETATION

5.1 SUMMARY OF RESULT

The summary of the result is presented below;

The ACF (autocorrelation) function is positive for all means that is significant

relationship in the number of years and the incrementing the typhoid. Generally we fit

ARIMA(0,0,0), (1,1,1) and (3,0,0) among all these we see that ARIMA (1,1,1) fit the data best,

the model for the prediction of future occurrence is generally written as

1
I = y t = y t − y t −1

t
MA (1)=( 1−QLi )

AR (1 )=α 1 y t −1−μ+ ε t

ARIMA ( 1 , 1, 1 )=α 1 y t−1−μ+ y t − y t −1

Fig I Model Description: white noise is fixed to the model and is referred to as ARIMA (0,0,0)

pick= {0 , otherwise
1 , st

Fig II ARIMA (1,0,0) which is markov process or random walk to AR(1)

Fig III R2=0.937 p−value=0.00

H 0 :the model isnt fit

H 1 : themodel is fit

25
Since R2=0.937> p−value=0.00

Hence, the model is fit for prediction

figIV: We also fit ARIMA(1,1,1)

there is a though slight balance at a time

ti
t ( 1−Qi Li ) +ϵ t

L = period, Q = parameter

∝1 =
∑ yt
∑ y t−1

^μ=
∑ yt
n

ARIMA (1,1,1) = fit the data most simply because it exhibit stationality, means and variances are

constant.

5.2 CONCLUSION

From the model above we conclude that the number of typhoid decreases annually. It also

shown from the trend that the typhoid fever decreases as the year increases.

5.3 RECOMMENDATION

Based on the analysis so far, since there is a decrease in typhoid fever yearly, the

following recommendation are made:

26
 1. The Federal Government in collaboration with Osun State Government should introduce

the importance of some drugs which are not sufficiently produced in the country for the

use of the citizens.

2. The public should be educated on the importance of using malarial drugs towards

improving their health.

3. The people of Ile-Ife should not use self-medication whenever they need to visit hospital.

4. Government should make provision for vaccines protecting people against these diseases
most especially malaria fever.
5.4 CONTRIBUTION TO KNOWLEDGE

This study has determined the trend of typhoid fever and carryout necessary steps to

enhance reduction in this communication disease in future.

27
 REFERENCES

1. Akinyemi K.O, Smith S.I, Oyefolu, A.O, and Coker AO, (2005): Multidrug resistance in

Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi isolated. Plot 32, dreg 11;14

2. Antillon, M, Warren JL, Crawford FW, Weinberger DM, K ¨ur ¨um E, Pak GD, Marks

FV, Pitzer VE, (2017): The burden of typhoid fever in low-and middle-income countries:

a meta-regression, approach. plops Negl Trop Dis 11: e0005376.

3. Breiman RF et al., (2012): Population-based incidence of typhoid fever in an urban

informal settlement and a rural area in Kenya: implication for typhoid vaccine use in

Africa. Plots One 7: e29119.

4. Buckle GC, Walker FCI, Black RE, (2012): Typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever:

systematic review to estimate global morbidity and mortality for 2010. J Glob Health 2:

010401.

5. Contreras, J., Espinola, R., Nogales, F.J., Conejo, A.J., (2013), ARIMA Models to

Predict Next - day Electricity Prices, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 18, No.

3, pp. 1014-1020.

6. Crump JA, Mintz ED. (2010): Global trends in typhoid and paratyphoid fever. Clin.

Infect. Dis.; 50:241–246.

7. Everest P, Wain J, Roberts MR, Dougan G. (2011): The molecular mechanisms of severe

typhoid fever. Trends Microbial. 9: 316-319.

28
8. Gonzalez-Escobedo G, Marshall JM, Gunn JS. (2011): Chronic and acute infection of

the gall bladder by Salmonella typhi: Understanding the carrier state. Nat. Rev.

Microbial.; 9:9–14.

9. Hall RP, van Koppen B, van Houweling E, (2014): The human right to water: the

importance of domestic and productive water rights. Sci Eng Ethics 20: 849–868.

10. Marks F et al., (2017): Incidence of invasive Salmonella disease in sub-Saharan Africa: a

multi-centre population-based surveillance study. Lancet Glob Health 5: e310–e323.

11. Myers, N. and Kent, J. (2010) New Consumers: the influence of affluence on the

environment. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 100, 4963-4968.

12. Mogasale V, Maskery B, Ochiai RL, Lee JS, Mogasale VV, Ramani E, Kim YE, Park

JK, Wierzba TF, (2014): Burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income

countries: a systematic literature-based update with risk-factor adjustment. Lancet Glob

Health 2: e570–e580.

13. Soneye, A. S. O. (2014). Farm Size Holdings in Northern Nigeria: A Remote Sensing

Assessment and Implication for Food Sustenance. African Journal of Food, Agriculture

and Development (AJFAND). 14(2): 1-15.

14. Stergiou, K. I. (2009), Modeling and forecasting the fishery for pilchard (Sardina

pilchardus) in Greek waters using ARIMA time-series models, ICES Journal of

Marine Science, Volume 46, No. 1, Pp. 16-23.

15. Talabi HA, (2014): Medical aspects of typhoid. Niger Postgraduate Med J 1: 51–56.

16. World Health Organization, (2008): Typhoid vaccines: WHO position paper. Wily

Epidemiol Rec 83: 49–59.

29
17. World Health Organization, (2016): Background Document: The Diagnosis, Treatment

and Prevention of Typhoid Fever. Avail-able at:

http://www.who.int/rpc/TFGuideWHO.pdf.

18. Zhu, Q. Lim CK, Chan YN. (2016): Detection of Salmonella typhoid by polymerase

chain reaction. J. Applied Microbial. ; 80: 244-51.

30
 APPENDIX (DATA PRESENTATION)

Table 1.0: The table below shows the cases of typhoid fever recorded at OAU Teaching

Hospital, Ile-Ife, from 2011 to 2020.

Year
Age
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0-11 mths 3 2 4 1 4 1 26 11 15 18

1-4 7 5 10 8 5 10 96 104 76 132

5-9 5 10 9 8 3 23 37 112 129 94

10-14 9 9 11 13 10 10 45 122 100 117

15-19 8 11 12 12 7 27 32 106 112 114

20-24 6 12 11 6 12 32 25 143 121 122

25-29 7 8 9 9 12 15 52 95 78 125

30-34 10 10 13 11 6 19 50 36 49 82

35-39 2 7 5 5 2 15 27 90 67 53

40-44 7 5 9 8 2 10 20 50 42 60

45-49 4 8 12 13 3 16 28 54 50 71

50-54 1 5 4 6 3 4 28 41 40 52

55-59 3 3 5 3 4 6 20 85 65 62

60-64 4 1 3 6 7 2 16 40 38 28

65-69 1 3 2 2 1 5 15 31 30 21

70+ 4 3 5 6 6 13 31 75 51 48

31
Source: Obafemi Awolowo University Teaching Hospital, Ile-Ife, Osun State (2021).

32