An Analyse On The Possible Losses of The 4th Guards Tank Division

An analysis on the possible losses of Russia´s 4th Guards Tank Division
By Drecas
Fig.1: Coat of Arms of the 4th Guards Tank Division

Who are the 4th Guards?
The 4th Guards is the descendent of the 17th Tank Corps of the Red Army, formed in
Stalingrad in 1942. The unit was deployed in Voronezh and saw battle there, then in
1943 it was renamed to the 4th Guards Tank Corps, it continued its service throughout
World War 2 with distinction and by the end of the war it had be awarded two
decorations, the Order of Lenin, and the Order of the Red Banner.
Garrisoned in Moscow since 1945 the division was reactivated in 2013 and serves under
the 1st Guards Tank Army, currently its deployed in Ukraine where it has seen action in
the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
The unit also maintains to this day the Oak Leaves in their coat of arms and is considered
one of Russia’s elite units.
Structure:
So, what is in the 4th Guards and how is it organized?

First, I would like to point out that I will mainly focus on the maneuver units so signal
companies, for example will not be covered in detail.
The division has two tank regiments, 1 mechanized infantry regiment, 1 artillery
regiment, 1 anti-aircraft missile regiment, as well has support battalions and companies
such as medical, signals etc…
(For the Order of Battle see pag.10)
Regarding the tank regiments they have:

1 HQ & Control Company, with 1 T-80UK
3 Tank Battalions, each with 1 T-80UK and 30 T-80U for a total of 31 tanks (does
not exclude the possible use of T-80UE-1)
Each Battalion has 3 Tank Companies each with 10 T-80U’s
Each Company has 3 Platoons each with 3 T-80’s, the company commander uses
a standard T-80U
1 Mechanized Infantry Battalion each with 31 BMP-2
Each Battalion has 3 Companies with 10 BMP-2 each
In essence the Tank Battalions should each have, at 100% paper strength, 94 tanks in
total for a combined total of 188 tanks, as well as 31 BMP-2 for a combined total of 62
BMP-2.
Now onto the Mechanized Regiment of the Division:
It consists of 3 mechanized battalions each with the same organization stated

previously
1 Battalion of tanks, this one with 41 tanks, the reason for this is because it has
4 tank companies instead of the usual 3, it should have 1 T-80BVK, 20 T-80BV’s
and 20 T-80BVM
In total this regiment should have 41 tanks and 94 BMP-2, again though this is taking its
paper strength at face value.
In total the division has in its arsenal at least 229 tanks and 155 BMP-2 at paper strength.
If we assume an 85% readiness state, then the division had 194 tanks and 131 BMP’s
ready to go.
If we assume a 70% readiness state, then the division has employed in Ukraine 160 tanks
and 108 BMP’s ready to go.
If we assume an even lower number of 50% readiness state, then the division has 114
tanks and 77 BMP’s ready to go.
Tank Losses:
Now let us try to identify how many tanks this division has lost and evaluate the
percentage of losses, for this we will be only using Oryx.
Tank losses will be categorized in two different ways:

“With tactical markings”: meaning the tank as clear visual markings that connect it to
the 4th Guards tank division.
In this case we will look for 3 different symbols, the “O”, tactical marking of the Russian
units in the Chernihiv-Kharkiv axis, the oak leaves, symbol of the division and last but
not least the number “4” a common identification symbol used by the division.
Fig.2: A T-80U with the “4” as a tactical marking Fig.3: A T-80U with the oak leaves as a tactical marking
Fig.4: A 2S19 Msta with the “O” tactical marking
“No tactical markings but likely to belong to the division”: meaning that despite the tank
not having a visual identifier to connect it to the division we can still include it in the
division’s losses.
The rules for this will be:
>Place of destruction, abandonment or capture of the tank
>Ukrainian unit that claimed the destruction or capture of the tank
>The time of the destruction, abandonment or capture of the tank
This is a flawed logic I do concede that, however it is in my opinion the best strategy
possible at the moment.
Equipment losses were analyzed on the 17 of October of 2022

Let us start with the T-80U of which there is a total of 86 in Oryx’s list:
With Tactical markings: 36
1. https://postlmg.cc/34hr9Gjf
2. https://postimg.cc/1f7cYkR6
3. https://postlmg.cc/qNk6Rq7y
4. https://postlmg.cc/2VFRG87H
5. https://postlmg.cc/phLMhK9y
6. https://postlmg.cc/JtHYR8kL
7. https://postimg.cc/5XFxkNXT
8. https://postlmg.cc/DJ3TnKvG
9. https://postlmg.cc/QFxXhc2w
10. https://postlmg.cc/bDC7W9W9
11. https://postlmg.cc/DSQWbJLQ
12. https://postlmg.cc/DSQWbJLQ
13. https://postimg.cc/SjNPsRJw
14. https://postlmg.cc/qt55qVhn
15. https://postlmg.cc/w1RVB4wp
16. https://postimg.cc/r00qRKt8
17. https://postlmg.cc/MfZ0sWdM
18. https://postlmg.cc/kBfYPHSP
19. https://postlmg.cc/kBfYPHSP
20. https://postlmg.cc/wtWKRhb7
21. https://postlmg.cc/wtWKRhb7
22. https://postlmg.cc/1gKXkwD2
23. https://postimg.cc/vDj0Nm3V
24. https://postlmg.cc/pp9BqVgv
25. https://postlmg.cc/DWcQ8Sbr
26. https://postlmg.cc/D8tPDkTX
27. https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1554950823968399367
28. https://postlmg.cc/SX47S6jQ
29. https://postlmg.cc/Y4ZsLQPv
31. https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1569711880675139585
34. https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/1570479830562672640
35. https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/1570479830562672640
No tactical markings but likely to belong to the division: at least 23
1. https://postlmg.cc/LJ8YsJvF
2. https://postlmg.cc/87wQ1SQQ
3. https://postlmg.cc/WD3YP7Cp
4. https://postimg.cc/N9qWWY3V
5. https://postimg.cc/yg6n1783
6. https://postimg.cc/YLmr0QVY
7. https://postlmg.cc/q60FTZSr
8. https://i.postimg.cc/mg84T7cL/4g.jpg
9. https://i.postimg.cc/mg84T7cL/4g.jpg
10. https://i.postimg.cc/rF2MjVXk/5g3.jpg
11. https://postlmg.cc/Fd2c2g2q´
12. https://postimg.cc/SJ3QccS6
13. https://postlmg.cc/68TFq15T
14. https://postlmg.cc/68TFq15T
15. https://postlmg.cc/HVYptsVc
16. https://postlmg.cc/75B1fM18
17. https://i.postimg.cc/Gpp0CYB5/c1.jpg
20. https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1572321696488603648
21. https://postlmg.cc/ygGBwHsT
22. https://i.postimg.cc/vZ0cT4bY/47j.png
23. https://postlmg.cc/v1DJYzSJ
In total 59
T-80BV, of which there are 146 on Oryx’s list:

With tactical markings: 5
1. https://postimg.cc/94CpG3V9
2. https://postimg.cc/94CpG3V9
3. https://postimg.cc/fVWdJqSB
4. https://postlmg.cc/jwNnvtLg
5. https://postlmg.cc/DWQxXrgD
No tactical markings but likely to belong to the division: 24
2. https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1544253911238070273
3. https://postimg.cc/LJ2NLfpK
9. https://postimg.cc/F7vxTS5M
10. https://i.postimg.cc/dV7Y2m59/36.png
In total 29
T-80UK, of which there are 3 on Oryx’s list:

1. https://postimg.cc/f3KbQy15
1. https://postimg.cc/bSDm4XXV
2. https://i.postimg.cc/1znWKMQF/1009.jpg
In total 3
T-80BVK, of which there is 1 on Oryx’s list:

With tactical markings: none
No tactical markings but likely to belong to the division: none
T-80UE-1, of which there are 8 on Oryx’s list:

1. https://postlmg.cc/K13TmkwP
2. https://postlmg.cc/HVYptsVc
3. https://i.postimg.cc/fb0m5nJQ/4388.jpg
4. https://postimg.cc/vDj0Nm3V
5. https://postlmg.cc/bZdHW4R1
1. https://i.postimg.cc/YCSxpFYc/3d1.jpg
2. https://postlmg.cc/LJGSKmbw
3. https://i.postimg.cc/7PgrKTDY/s1.jpg
In total 8
T-80UM2, of which there is 1 on Oryx’s list:

1. https://postlmg.cc/FfM37XXQ
In total 1
*sidenote: we have seen the T-80UM2 in training with the 4th Guards and since this
division is a T-80 only user we can say that this prototype destroyed in Ukraine did in
fact belong to the 4th Guards*
T-80BVM, of which there are 52 on Oryx’s list:

No tactical markings but likely to belong to the division: none
In total 0
*sidenote: there are several pictures of captured, damaged or destroyed BVM’s in the
regions of Sumy and Kharkiv however a good amount of these lack any tactical markings
that can help us in the identification of the unit that they belong, and since the area of
operations of the 4th Guards matches the one of the 200th Artic Brigade which also
employs T-80BVM’s its hard to say to who this tanks belong to*
Unknown T-80’s, of which there are 6 in Oryx’s list:

In total 4
In Oryx’s list there are 175 unknown tanks, from these I think there can be a case to be
made of a possible T-80(T-80U possibly) from the division, reason being that this one
was abandoned in Sumy and in the time period that the division was there present, of
course this should be taken with a cargo ship load of salt.
1. https://postlmg.cc/2Lv3qD0K
Before the conclusion I would like to point out that there is a good chance that most and
maybe even all 86 T-80U’s on Oryx’s list could belong to the division.
Now in total I believe they have lost at the very least 104 or 105 tanks.
Now for the following exercise we will assume they have lost 105 tanks.
If we consider paper strength (229 tanks) then they have lost more than a tank regiment
and 45% of their tanks.
If we consider an 85% (194 tanks) state of readiness then they have lost 54% of their
tanks.
If we consider a 70% (160 tanks) state of readiness then they have lost 65% of their
tanks.
And if we consider a 50% (114 tanks) state of readiness then they have lost 92% of their
tanks.
For an elite division these losses are simply too high
We must not forget that we are also potentially missing several tanks from Oryx’s list
and that in reality the true number of losses is likely to be higher than the ones visually
confirmed by Oryx
At the same time the number of losses in IFV´s of the division should not be low and
likewise its possible the unit’s infantry has suffered deeply from staunch and effective
ukrainian resistance.
Now let us assume all T-80U’s belong to the division and remake the calculations above.
In this case then they have lost in total 131 or 132 tanks
Now for the following exercise we will assume they have lost 132 tanks.
If we consider paper strength (229 tanks) then they have lost more than a tank regiment
and almost a tank battalion, meaning 57% of their tanks.
If we consider an 85% (194 tanks) state of readiness then they have lost 68% of their
tanks.
If we consider a 70% (160 tanks) state of readiness then they have lost 82% of their
tanks.
And if we consider a 50% (114 tanks) state of readiness then they have lost 114% of their
tanks.
For an elite division these losses are simply too high
Again I must stress that we are also potentially missing several tanks from Oryx’s list and
that in reality the true number of losses is likely to be higher than the ones visually
confirmed by Oryx
At the same time the number of losses in IFV´s of the division should not be low and
likewise its possible the unit’s infantry has suffered deeply from staunch and effective
ukrainian resistance.
Fig.5: Order of Battle of the 4th Guards Tank Division, made by Battle Order
Sources:
4th Guards Tank Division battle order by Battle Order:
https://www.battleorder.org/ru-orbat
Guide to Russia’s Armored Artillery, by Battle Order:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-EY-6YHG_0&t=244s
How Russian Tank Units are Structered(Visualization), by Battle Order:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGGKDU4plgU&t=246s
Motostrelki ´22: Russian Infantry Tactics & Structure:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4th_Guards_Tank_Division
Mapping Russia’s Most Costly Tank Losses | Ukraine War:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adE5GlQ2Ly4&t=10s
Analyzing Russian Tanks in Ukraine: T-80 “Flying Tank”:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VJNcE6hQu4&t=8s
ORYX: Attack on Europe:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-
equipment.html
Military Balance 2022 by the IISS:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18IOR2PSOA-
KEBeuXyZr6ub22qaxuIjua/view?usp=sharing
Tank Diary:
https://www.instagram.com/tankdiary/
Guide to T-80 ID by Tank Diary:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CdDpeYVs6lo/
AFV Recognition:
https://www.instagram.com/afv_recognition_/
Ukrainian Conflict – Tank Recognition, by RedEffect:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2doYYblaLFU&t=84s
Ukrainian Conflict Tank Recognition, Tank Recognition:

https://tankrecognition.blogspot.com/2022/03/ukrainian-conflict-tank-
recognition.html

An Analyse On The Possible Losses of The 4th Guards Tank Division

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An Analyse On The Possible Losses of The 4th Guards Tank Division

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An analysis on the possible losses of Russia´s 4th Guards Tank Division

Fig.1: Coat of Arms of the 4th Guards Tank Division

So, what is in the 4th Guards and how is it organized?

Regarding the tank regiments they have:

Now onto the Mechanized Regiment of the Division:

It consists of 3 mechanized battalions each with the same organization stated

Tank losses will be categorized in two different ways:

Fig.4: A 2S19 Msta with the “O” tactical marking

Equipment losses were analyzed on the 17 of October of 2022

T-80BV, of which there are 146 on Oryx’s list:

T-80UK, of which there are 3 on Oryx’s list:

T-80BVK, of which there is 1 on Oryx’s list:

T-80UE-1, of which there are 8 on Oryx’s list:

T-80UM2, of which there is 1 on Oryx’s list:

T-80BVM, of which there are 52 on Oryx’s list:

Unknown T-80’s, of which there are 6 in Oryx’s list:

Guide to Russia’s Armored Artillery, by Battle Order:

How Russian Tank Units are Structered(Visualization), by Battle Order:

Motostrelki ´22: Russian Infantry Tactics & Structure:

Mapping Russia’s Most Costly Tank Losses | Ukraine War:

Analyzing Russian Tanks in Ukraine: T-80 “Flying Tank”:

ORYX: Attack on Europe:

Military Balance 2022 by the IISS:

Guide to T-80 ID by Tank Diary:

Ukrainian Conflict – Tank Recognition, by RedEffect:

Ukrainian Conflict Tank Recognition, Tank Recognition:

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