Professional Documents
Culture Documents
ICICI Securities Kotak Bank Q3FY23 Results Review
ICICI Securities Kotak Bank Q3FY23 Results Review
ICICI Securities Kotak Bank Q3FY23 Results Review
2
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
improved market share in card spends and revolve rates have moved up a tad to
30-32% (still lower than the pre-covid average of 40%).
CV/CE segment is gathering momentum with 5% QoQ increase (up 27% YoY) and
KMB has gained disbursement market share. Corporate banking too registered
growth of 7% QoQ / 2% YoY though it sees irrational pricing in some pockets of
corporate lending.
Bank is focused on quality customer acquisition, strengthening market share and
consolidating relationships for cross-sell. It is getting more constructive on
unsecured lending (PL, credit card, MFI) with better ability to analyse data. Bank is
gaining market share in the vehicle finance business across most verticals. It
continues to see strong momentum in microfinance, credit card and mortgage as
well in retail. KMB has significantly enhanced its capacity for sales / services and is
revamping its risk models and analytics setup for a better credit evaluation process.
Credit substitutes soared 5% QoQ / 32% YoY and now constitute 8.4% of customer
assets. With a constructive approach towards unsecured lending and levers
available to grow SME, business banking and corporate banking, we believe the
bank is well positioned to grow at 23% / 20% for FY23E / FY24E respectively.
Endeavour is to accelerate granular retail deposit engine more rigorously:
KMB has been at the forefront to have deposit rates hiked both for term as well as
saving deposits. Bank’s SA rate is 50bps higher than large private bank peers.
Nonetheless, SA deposits moderated QoQ and sequential growth was led by CA
and term deposits.
Term deposits exhibited 13% QoQ and 32% YoY growth. CA deposits were up 6%
QoQ and 11% YoY due to rise in non-custodian balance. On the contrary, saving
deposits were down 2% QoQ and 5% YoY due to lumpy withdrawals by some HNI
and affluent clients, due to better returns in liquid funds. Bank also saw non-
replenishment of government money in certain government departments.
CASA moderated sequentially to 53.3% (vs 56.1% / 58.1% / 60.7% / 59.9% in
Q2FY23 / Q1FY23 / Q4FY22 / Q3FY22). Cost of SA deposits was stable 3.79%
(3.8% / 3.59% / 3.52% / 3.74%).
Bank’s endeavour is to accelerate its granular retail deposit engine more rigorously
through: 1) deeper engagement with retail customers, 2) aggressively tapping of
NTB customers, 3) scaling up its salaried customer base, 4) offering more holistic
propositions. It is also building institutional (including government) business. With
QoQ deposit growth catching in tandem with credit growth, the C/D ratio was stable
at 90.2% (vs 90.4% QoQ / 82.9% YoY).
GNPAs declined 18bps to 1.90%; slippages contained at 1% with 23% getting
upgraded intra-quarter: GNPA decline was better than expected at 1.9% (from
2.08% / 2.24% / 2.34% / 2.71% / 3.15% / 3.56% in Q2FY23 / Q1FY23 / Q4FY22 /
Q3FY22 / Q2FY22 / Q1FY22, 3.25% in FY21). Slippages during the quarter were
contained at Rs7.5bn (1% annualised run-rate vs 1.4% / 2.1% / 1.1%), though 23%
(Rs1.7bn) got upgraded during Q3FY23 itself. This was reflected in recoveries and
upgrades of Rs8.7bn (vs Rs9.45bn / Rs13bn). There was no sale to ARC during the
quarter. Restructuring pool stands at Rs7.65bn (Rs2.81bn of covid + Rs4.84bn of
MSME restructuring) compared to Rs9.9bn / Rs10.76bn / Rs12.05bn / Rs13.6bn in
Q2FY23 / Q1FY23 / Q4FY22 / Q3FY22, which is equivalent to 25bps of advances
(vs 34bps / 38bps / 44bps). SMA2 has risen to Rs1.91bn (Rs1.19bn / Rs1.6bn /
3
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
Rs1.9bn / Rs3bn / Rs3.9bn in Q2FY23 / Q1FY23 / Q4FY22 / Q3FY22 / Q2FY22),
which is equivalent to 6bps of advances. KMB is getting more confident on credit
risk having sailed through the covid second wave relatively well and the
management highlighted it is going through the most benign credit cycle ever.
Credit cost at 27bps; utilised Rs380mn of covid buffer: Credit cost during the
quarter was at a mere 27bps, much lower than expectations (vs 0.26% / 0.16% /
0.27% / 0.35% / 0.63% / 1.33% in Q2FY23 / Q1FY23 / Q4FY22 / Q3FY22 /
Q2FY22 / Q1FY22) excluding covid buffer reversal and restructuring. It dipped
further into covid provision to the extent of Rs380mn in Q3FY23. Covid provision
now comes down to Rs4bn and there is no sale to ARCs. Provisions (including
specific, standard, covid-related, etc.) held as of Q3FY23 stood at Rs65.7bn (vs
Rs64.96bn / Rs65.3bn / Rs67.1bn) which is 110% of GNPA. This includes
Rs1.85bn (vs Rs2.07bn QoQ) towards the restructured pool and Rs4bn towards
covid provisions. Considering FY22 and 9MFY23 trend, we are building-in credit
cost of 0.3% / 0.5% for FY23E / FY24E respectively. Kotak Mahindra Prime net
NPA contracted to 1.1% (1.3% / 1.5% / 1.7% / 2.1% / 1.8% / 2.4% in Q2/Q1FY23 /
Q4/Q3/Q2/Q1FY22).
Cost to assets settle high at 3.5%; investment phase to continue for a while:
Operating expenses further gathered pace (up 12% QoQ / 30% YoY). ‘Opex to
assets’ thereby settled at 3.5%. Overhead costs were up 35% YoY / 17% QoQ due
to promotional spends during festive season, technology investment, and push for
growth in advances and deposits. Cost of building unsecured retail as well as
customer acquisition through 811 app is upfront. Bank believes its investment
phase would continue in Q4FY23 as well as in the initial period of FY24.
Nonetheless, with efficiency kicking in due to analytics, digital capabilities and DIY
customer journey, operating leverage benefit should come into play. Overall, we are
building in ‘opex to assets’ at 3.2% / 3.2% for FY23E / FY24E, respectively. Core
fee income was up 5% QoQ / 23% YoY primarily led by distribution fees being up
11% QoQ and general banking fees up 4% QoQ / 25% YoY.
Treasury knock contained at Rs510mn despite higher AFS/HFT book: KMB
had taken trading and MTM hit of Rs510mn (vs Q2FY23: Rs630mn; Q1FY23:
Rs8.57bn; FY22: Rs11.6bn). Proportion of AFS+HFT book as a percentage of the
investment book stands at 68% (vs 64% / 61%) and modified duration of AFS +HFT
is 1.1 years (1.05 years QoQ).
Table 1: Non-banking businesses contributed ~30% to consolidated earnings
(Rs mn, year ending March 31)
YoY Growth QoQ Growth YoY Growth
Particulars
Q3FY23 Q3FY22 (%) Q2FY23 (%) FY21 FY22 (%)
Kotak Mahindra Bank 27,919 21,314 31 25,807 8 69,648 85,727 23
Kotak Mahindra Prime 2,250 2,540 (11) 2,220 1 5,340 8,860 66
Kotak Mahindra Investments 860 1,110 (23) 780 10 2,580 3,720 44
Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance 3,300 2,470 34 2,700 22 6,920 4,260 (38)
Kotak AMC and TC 1,500 1,490 1 1,060 42 3,460 4,550 32
Kotak Securities 2,410 2,700 (11) 2,240 8 7,930 10,010 26
Kotak Mahindra Capital 280 1,030 (73) 220 27 830 2,450 195
International subsidiaries 220 410 (46) 50 340 1,540 1,180 (23)
Others 920 310 197 640 44 1,010 900 (11)
Total 39,660 33,374 19 35,720 11 99,258 1,21,663 23
Affiliates & Others 290 660 (56) 370 (22) 660 (760) (215)
Consolidated PAT 39,950 34,034 17 36,080 11 99,918 1,20,903 21
Source: Company data
4
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
Table 2: Upbeat on advance growth; to scale up proportion of unsecured retail advances to mid-teens
by FY24
(Rs mn, year ending March 31)
Customer Assets (Rs mn) Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q3FY23 YoY % QoQ %
Home Loans & LAP 6,88,710 7,60,770 8,09,750 8,58,430 8,91,120 29.4 3.8
Consumer Bank WC (Secured) 2,40,800 2,64,440 2,63,910 2,81,810 2,89,400 20.2 2.7
Pl, BL & Consumer Durables 85,540 1,00,710 1,17,120 1,31,970 1,45,420 70.0 10.2
Credit Cards 49,480 55,720 68,190 79,030 91,590 85.1 15.9
CV/CE 2,03,880 2,24,900 2,32,460 2,46,040 2,58,140 26.6 4.9
Agriculture Division 2,26,000 2,52,000 2,46,040 2,50,020 2,61,280 15.6 4.5
Micro Finance 1,01,280 1,07,660 1,10,150 1,20,150 1,29,860 28.2 8.1
Tractor Finance 24,000 30,600 36,500 44,440 53,380 122.4 20.1
Corporate Banking 6,80,950 6,66,740 6,66,330 6,55,240 6,99,870 2.8 6.8
SME 1,89,940 2,04,440 2,05,290 2,23,100 2,31,540 21.9 3.8
Others 38,770 44,560 45,970 50,000 55,740 43.8 11.5
Total Advances 25,29,350 27,12,540 28,01,710 29,40,230 31,07,340 22.9 5.7
Credit Substitutes 2,16,340 2,12,270 2,34,580 2,73,010 2,85,790 32.1 4.7
Total Customer Assets 27,45,690 29,24,810 30,36,290 32,13,240 33,93,130 23.6 5.6
Source: Company data
Asset quality
Gross NPL 59,946 69,828 (14.2) 62,102 (3.5)
Net NPL 13,448 20,035 (32.9) 16,304 (17.5)
Gross NPL ratio (Change bps) 1.90 2.71 (81) 2.08 (18)
Net NPL ratio (Change bps) 0.43 0.79 (36) 0.55 (12)
Credit cost (Change bps) 0.19 (0.21) 41 0.19 1
Coverage ratio (Change bps) 78 71 626 74 382
Business ratio
Change bps Change bps
RoA 2.46 2.06 40 2.38 8
RoE 14.2 12.4 178 13.6 62
CASA 53.1 59.9 (685) 56.2 (308)
Credit / Deposit Ratio 90.2 82.9 730 90.4 (26)
Cost-Income ratio 50.3 52.6 (225) 49.4 92
Tier I 20.7 22.3 (160) 21.5 (80)
Earnings ratios
Change bps Change bps
Yield on advances (Calculated) 9.45 8.14 131 8.91 54
Cost of deposits (Calculated) 3.86 3.08 77 3.60 25
NIM (Reported) 5.47 4.62 85 5.17 30
Source: Company data
5
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
Table 4: Valuation of subsidiaries
Particulars - Rs mn Valuation basis Total value Stake Stake value Value per share
Kotak Life 2.25x Appraisal value 2,74,651 100% 2,74,651 138
Kotak Prime 2.0x PBV 1,79,680 100% 1,79,680 91
Securities / Investment Banking 20x PE 2,56,499 100% 2,56,499 129
MF/Offshore/AUM/PE 6.0% of AUM 2,29,238 100% 2,29,238 116
Total 474
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance: PAT grew 34% YoY / 22% QoQ to
Rs3.3bn
Gross written premium for Q3FY23 grew 16.6% YoY. Individual APE NB premium
for the quarter was up 17.3% vs private industry growth of 15.6%. Overall,
protection premium for Q3FY23 grew 40.8% YoY.
AUM (policyholders) as of Q3FY23 stands at Rs566.43bn, up 15.1% YoY.
Death claims are now back to pre-covid levels. Death claims net of reinsurance
amounted to Rs3.29bn. (Q3FY22: Rs3.66bn)
Company with net worth of Rs51.22bn has a solvency ratio above the regulatory
requirement at 2.88x vs 2.79x QoQ and 2.66x YoY.
Table 5: Kotak Life Insurance – key metrics
(Rs mn, year ending March 31)
YoY Growth QoQ Growth YoY Growth
Particulars Q3FY23 Q3FY22 (%) Q2FY23 (%) FY21 FY22 (%)
New Business premium 36,230 31,080 17 32,500 11 1,11,010 1,30,150 17
Profit After Tax 3,300 2,470 34 2,700 22 6,920 4,260 (38)
Source: Company data
Kotak Mahindra Prime: Car advances up 24% YoY; earnings flat QoQ
PAT at Rs2.25bn vs Rs2.22bn QoQ and Rs2.54bn YoY
NPA fell to 1.1% vs 1.3% QoQ and 2.1% YoY.
Car advances were up 24% YoY / 5% QoQ. Management indicated robust outlook
for car financing demand, especially the mid and upper end cars.
Business has improved wherein demand in Dec’22 was strong. There is a shift in
the behaviour of first-time buyers wherein they are directly going to second-level
lenders.
Company remains healthy with capital adequacy of 29.2% vs 30.1% QoQ and
28.8% YoY.
Overall, Kotak Mahindra Prime reported RoA of 3.0% vs 3.2% QoQ and 3.9% YoY
Table 6: Kotak Mahindra Prime – key metrics
YoY Growth QoQ Growth YoY Growth
Rs mn Q3FY23 Q3FY22 (%) Q2FY23 (%) FY21 FY22 (%)
NII 4,200 3,780 11 4,210 (0) 12,330 14,570 18
PBT 3,020 3,370 (10) 2,980 1 7,210 11,790 64
PAT 2,250 2,540 (11) 2,220 1 5,340 8,860 66
RoAA 3.0 3.9 3.2
Source: Company data
6
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
Kotak Securities: Market share improved QoQ to 5.8% despite decline
in cash segment
Kotak Securities reported PAT of Rs2.41bn vs Rs2.24bn QoQ and Rs2.70bn YoY.
Overall market share rose to 5.8% vs 5.1% QoQ and 3.0% YoY. Market share in
cash segment was at 10.1% vs 11.2% QoQ and 10.4% YoY.
It has launched new-age trading platform Kotak Neo, which provides a faster,
simple, seamless trade experience. Company’s plan is to shift majority or all
trading volumes into smart Neo over the next 2-4 quarters.
Table 7: Kotak Mahindra Securities – key metrics
(Rs mn, year ending March 31)
YoY Growth QoQ Growth YoY Growth
Particulars Q3FY23 Q3FY22 (%) Q2FY23 (%) FY21 FY22 (%)
Revenues 6,460 6,560 (2) 6,310 2 20,190 25,010 24
PBT 3,190 3,590 (11) 2,980 7 10,570 13,340 26
PAT 2,410 2,700 (11) 2,240 8 7,930 10,010 26
PAT margin (%) 37 41 35 39 40
Source: Company data
7
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
8
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
Credit growth is expected to moderate in FY24 against FY23 as base
expands and a lot would depend on budget allocation towards infra
spending
Some more room for NIM expansion before it starts to moderate
Planning to open 150 branches in FY24
Margins
Margins up 30bps QoQ to 5.47% and there is some room to go up further,
before it starts to decline
55% of the book is linked to EBLR, entire of which is linked to Repo and another
14% is linked to MCLR
Quickness with which bank passes on rate to EBLR linked is usually fast than rise
in cost of funds
~9% of the fixed book matures in the next 1 year
Impact of IBPC sold would be quite marginal on NII
Consolidated LCR at 121%
Customer assets
Customer assets at Rs3.39trn including credit substitutes
Unsecured retail at 9.3% of advances
Rise in credit substitutes also helps to manage PSL requirements
Continue to see irrational pricing under few pockets of corporate lending
Continue to remain cautious on commercial real estate primarily driven by
pricing
NBFC sector has seen good growth and has grown at a faster pace than the
overall wholesale book growth
CV industry continues to see good momentum
CE - industry has seen strong growth during the quarter and continue to grow
faster than industry in disbursement and thereby has gained market share
Tractor finance - Pick-up in commercial deployment and CE are now better than
pre-covid levels. Growth faster than industry in new as well as used vehicles for all
the past 3 quarters
Microfinance – strong momentum growth in Q3. Retail microfinance customer
base crossed 1mn and CE is holding up very well which shows ability of customer
to honor repayments. Bank sees good demand in MFI business and expanded its
presence in 3 new states.
9
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
Agri/SME – Credit in SME segment is seeing pick-up, Cash flow as well as limit
utilisation is comfortable and credit cost has been under control and continue to
grow at a healthy pace for the quarter
Consumer assets – continue to gain market share in quite a few credit products.
Unsecured retail growing at a faster pace and is up 76% YoY and 12% QoQ
Mortgage lending – good traction in both home laons and LAP and portfolio is
performing extremely well
Credit cards – Mkt share growing in both spends and cards in force and book up
85% YoY, revolve rate is back to 30-32% (EMI portion is inching up, but rise in
revolve rate is not still back to pre-covid levels of ~40%)
Personal loans – significant portion of personal loans sourcing continues to be
digital
Opex
Bank is in an investment phase due to higher spends in promotional
activities
Opex was up QoQ due to higher cost in IT and related activities
Opex cost is higher on asset side (towards DSA) as well as liability side
Analytics capabilities for the bank has significantly enhanced due to investments in
building digital capabilities
Investment phase would continue in Q4FY23 as well and may be in some
part of FY24 as well
Digital cost is an ongoing one as bank has to keep on upgrading back-end as well
On tech side, as bank acquires large part of customers, it is extremely important to
keep them engaged which also need higher digital capabilities. Hence, digital
expenses would continue.
As tech costs go up and gives efficiency, manpower cost is likely to decline
Operating leverage benefit should kick-in from FY24 onwards
Number of employees at 73k (71k QoQ) and group level at 100k
Continue on bank’s journey of measured expansion of branch network
Digital
On tech side, there is a lot of work being done on retail liability as well as
asset side, merchant side as well as business banking side.
Development has been largely on the payment side and customer journey, a lot of
which have now become Do It Yourself (DIY).
10
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
Deposits
Factors that impacted SA growth in Q2 continued in Q3 as well. Shift of funds
from SA to liquid funds continue and bank also saw non-replenishment of
government money in certain government departments.
Bank expects that it will see savings deposits move into TD increasingly over a
period of time
Under SA, bulk deposits are typically above Rs5mn
SA rate is 50bps higher than large private bank peers
Non-custody CA business is doing well
Non-interest income
Fee income continues to grow and has good growth in forex as well
HTM book currently stands at 32% of total investment book with modified duration
at 1.1 years
Asset quality
Annualised credit cost for the quarter at 27bps (excluding covid provisions)
PCR at 78% and NNPA at 0.43%
Slippages at Rs7.5bn of which Rs1.7bn got upgraded in the same quarter itself
Restructuring at 25bps of advances
Subsidiaries performance
Kotak Securities - seen marginal drop in cash market share, but seen rise in
derivatives volume especially options and continues to have decent market share
Kotak MF - Debt AUM de-grew 12% YoY, while equity AUM up 13% YoY leading
to overall AUM being flat YoY
Kotak Prime – Business has improved wherein December was a very good
month. There is a shift in first time buyers wherein they’re directly going to second
level lenders. PAT was largely stable QoQ.
Kotak Life Insurance - Seem to be now back to pre-covid levels in terms of death
claims
Both subsidiary NBFCs are well capitalised with CRAR >30%
11
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
Margins
Margins rise due to external benchmark linked loan profile and unsecured share
rising in loan mix among other factors
Larger part of the book is linked to Repo and hence banks are being
benefited on the yields side. 53% of advances are EBLR (repo linked), 16%
MCLR linked, 9% fixed rate with tenor of <1 years and 22% fixed rate with
more than 1 year tenor.
Margins at 5.17% vs. ~4.5% a year ago. Also, margins would depend on loan mix
wherein bank is inching high yielding unsecured retail and microfinance share in
total loan book.
On deposits, 56% (CASA) is fixed rate book since CA rate is nil and SA is quasi-
fixed rate book
Unsecured retail is growing faster than the rest of the book which is also aiding
margins
12
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
Industry is probably in one of the most important cindrella time in terms of credit
growth cycle
Interest rate cycle and margin cycle looks pretty benign as of now
Overall, company is very focused on risk adjusted returns
Liabilities
Upward revision in interest rate cycles has led to high investments by HNI in
TD or liquid funds
Granular SA book which is below Rs1mn has seen good demand
Good traction seen in agency business which will help build flows and balance in
CASA accounts
Launched couple of saving products to garner deposits
CASA at 56% and CRAR at 22.6% including H1 profits and CET at 21.5%. LCR at
119.1%.
TD less than Rs 20mn would be ~67% of total term deposits
Digital
Mr. Milind has joined as CTO - he comes from a very strong background and
has global banking experience
Added new Chief of Customer Experience
Aim is to build resiliency as bank grows its customer base and builds scale
Working on creating scale and capacity to meet future needs on payments and
transactions side
Transitioning to cloud over the next 9-12 months except core banking
Launched face authentication, first in the industry
MOBILE has become the biggest branch today. Hence, large number of
projects and investments going in Do It Yourself (DIY) journey and
assistance towards the same.
Asset quality
Slippages include Rs 3.3bn which were upgraded during the same quarter
Restructuring at 0.34%
SMA 2 for exposure over Rs 50mn at Rs 1.19bn
13
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
Opex
There was a tad reversal in employee cost due to movement of G-Sec yield.
Despite this, there was an increase in employee cost due to sharp rise in DA
Will continue to steadily add branches, however density requirement of branches
would be less now as compared to earlier years in this new digital era
Highest delta in overhead cost is technology and digital cost. Also upfront
customer acquisition cost due to roll out of retail products.
Running projects to reengineer and optimise processes through technology.
Advances
Wholesale and SME banking
SME segment - growth remained robust - YoY 23% and QoQ 9%
Seeing good demand for capacity creation in the form of term loans which get
utilised over time
Continue to grow and gain market share in SME with ultimate aim of being
holistic banker to this segment of customers
Corporate book - advances growth was flat while credit substitutes growth was up
16% QoQ
Corporate book - there is fair amount of pricing irrationality and hence
remain choosy
Commercial Real estate - LRD pricing remains irrational and hence bank has
relatively stayed out of this market
DCM fees have moderated while all other fees continue to grow at robust pace
Integrated banking portal is gaining good traction among customers
Non-custody CA growth remains robust. On custody, domestic custody remains
good.
Credit substitutes built this year are all 1-year instrument. For credit
substitutes with longer duration, they are on floating basis.
Commercial vehicle
Strong demand in Q2
Bus segments has bounced back and doing well
Will look to build book with focus on risk adjusted returns
Collection efficiency improves for this segment
Construction equipment - good demand in September after muted July and August
Tractor finance - seen an uptick in demand after better cashflows
Bank has improved market share in tractor financing
14
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
Continue to remain focused on rural customers in farmer segment
CV segment has come back after past 2 tough years.
Car finance is growing 18-20% in volume and value growth of 25%
Dealer inventory building at lower end but mid-range and premium segments
moving very fast
Agriculture
Commodity charges have peaked in Q1 and seen little reduction in commodity
prices in Q2
Capex investments in this segments are seeing an uptick
Warehouse, cold storage, supply chain seeing good demand
Consumer business
LAP seeing good demand
Mortgage business up 29% YoY
Acquired 725k cards during the quarter
Spends up 93% YoY
Credit card advances were up 60% YoY
Subsidiaries
Insurance
PAT of Rs2.7bn, up 74% YoY and 9% QoQ
GWP at Rs 32.5bn, up11.5% YoY
Individual new business APE up 13.7% vs. pvt industry growth of 7% YoY
Protection premium up 54.1% YoY (combination of more life cover and higher rate
of protection premium being charged which also aids profitability to a certain
extent)
Rs 530bn AUM
15
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
Death claims now normalised to pre-covid levels
Rs 47.92bn NW with solvency ratio of 2.79
Kotak Securities
Revenue at Rs 6.3bn
PBT Rs 2.98bn vs Rs 3.25bn YoY
PAT at Rs 2.24bn vs. Rs 2.43bn YoY and Rs 2.19bn QoQ
Cash market share at 11.2% vs. 11.0% YoY an 10.4% QoQ (seeing steady share)
Options volume driving overall market volumes with ADV of Rs 64.7trn of
which options is Rs 63trn vs. Rs 30trn YoY
Significant uptick in digital journey wherein it has launched Kotak Neo in previous
quarter
Plan is to shift majority or all trading volumes into smart Neo over the next 9-12
months
Kotak AMC
Equity AUM up 6% to Rs 1.52trn despite market volatility
SIP flows remain healthy
Equity market share at 6.1%
Retail AUM stands at 53%
Continue to serve investors by having active as well as passive funds
PAT flat at Rs 1.06bn
Total AUM up 2% YoY at Rs 3.9trn
16
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
Chart 1: Upbeat on advance growth; sequential Chart 2: Deposit growth was strong at 6% QoQ
momentum was broad-based
(%)
11 50
15 45
7
40
3 10
35
-1 5 30
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
-5
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q3FY21
Q1FY22
Q3FY22
Q1FY23
Q3FY23
Q2FY21
Q4FY21
Q2FY22
Q4FY22
Q2FY23
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Chart 3: NIMs positively surprised expanding Chart 4: Cost to assets settle at 3.5% and cost to
further to 5.47% income above 50%
4.0 2.6
6
(%)
3.8 46
5 2.4
3.6 44
4 3.4 2.2
42
3 3.2
40 2.0
2 3.0
38 1.8
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q3FY23
Q2FY21
Q2FY22
Q2FY23
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q1FY22
Gross NPA Credit Cost PCR (RHS) Fee Income / Avg Assets
4.00 80 1.7
3.50 1.6
75
3.00
1.5
2.50 70
1.4
2.00 65
1.3
(%)
1.50
(%)
1.00 60 1.2
0.50 55 1.1
- 1.0
50
(0.50) 0.9
(1.00) 45 0.8
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY22
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY19
17
18
(%)
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
(Rs) Q4FY20
Q1FY21
RoA
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Chart 7: RoA higher at 2.47%
Q2FY21
Jan-20 Q3FY21
Price chart
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Source: Bloomberg
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023
Apr-20
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Jul-20 Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Oct-20 Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Jan-21
Apr-21
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
8.0
9.0
Jul-21 Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Oct-21 Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
RoE
Jan-22 Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Apr-22
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Jul-22 Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
Chart 8: Capital adequacy strong
Oct-22 Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Jan-23 Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Tier I - Inverse (RHS)
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
ICICI Securities
24.0
22.0
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
Cash & Bank Balances 2,25,720 1,96,201 2,46,755 5,32,923 396,265 429,239 343,392 384,141
Investment 4,50,742 6,45,623 7,11,891 7,50,515 1,050,992 1,005,802 1,126,498 1,295,473
Advances 13,60,821 16,97,179 20,56,948 21,97,482 2,236,886 2,712,536 3,352,667 4,020,077
Fixed Assets 15,376 15,272 16,516 16,231 15,353 16,437 22,505 24,914
Other Assets 93,240 95,059 89,611 1,05,365 135,390 130,269 155,464 142,261
Total Assets 21,45,900 26,49,334 31,21,720 36,02,517 3,834,886 4,294,284 5,000,526 5,866,866
% Growth 11.6 23.5 17.8 15.4 6.5 12.0 16.4 17.3
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
19
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
Table 12: Key ratios
(Year ending Mar 31)
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Per share data
EPS – Diluted (Rs) 19 21 25 31 35 43 53 62
% Growth 62 16 19 22 13 23 23 17
DPS (Rs) 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1
Book Value per share (BVPS) (Rs) 150 197 225 256 322 365 417 477
% Growth 15 31 14 14 25 14 14 15
Adjusted BVPS (Rs) 144 191 219 250 311 359 411 471
% Growth 14 33 15 14 24 15 15 15
Valuations
Price / Earnings (x) 69.6 60.2 50.6 41.5 36.7 29.8 24.3 20.8
Price / Book (x) 8.6 6.6 5.7 5.0 4.0 3.5 3.1 2.7
Price / Adjusted BV (x) 9.0 6.7 5.9 5.2 4.1 3.6 3.1 2.7
Asset Quality
Gross NPA (Rs mn) 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.3 3.3 2.3 1.8 1.8
Gross NPA (%) 35,786 38,254 44,679 50,269 74,255 64,697 60,865 75,337
Net NPA (Rs mn) 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.4
Net NPA (%) 17,181 16,651 15,444 15,579 27,052 17,372 14,122 16,122
NPA Coverage ratio (%) 52 56 65 69 64 73 77 79
Gross Slippages (%) 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.6 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.5
Credit Cost (%) 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.5
Net NPL/Networth 6.2 4.4 3.6 3.2 4.2 2.4 1.7 1.7
Earning ratios
Yield on Advances 10.5 9.6 9.8 9.9 8.4 7.8 8.5 8.6
Yield on Earning Assets 9.2 8.6 8.6 8.3 7.5 6.9 7.6 7.8
Cost of Deposits 5.6 5.1 5.3 4.9 3.8 3.1 3.4 3.6
Cost of Funds 5.7 5.2 5.3 4.8 3.8 3.2 3.3 3.5
NIM 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.9 4.9
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
20
Kotak Mahindra Bank, January 22, 2023 ICICI Securities
This report may be distributed in Singapore by ICICI Securities, Inc. (Singapore branch). Any recipients of this report in Singapore should contact ICICI Securities,
Inc. (Singapore branch) in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. The contact details of ICICI Securities, Inc. (Singapore branch) are
as follows: Address: 10 Collyer Quay, #40-92 Ocean Financial Tower, Singapore - 049315, Tel: +65 6232 2451 and email: navneet_babbar@icicisecuritiesinc.com,
Rishi_agrawal@icicisecuritiesinc.com.
"In case of eligible investors based in Japan, charges for brokerage services on execution of transactions do not in substance constitute charge for research reports
and no charges are levied for providing research reports to such investors."
New I-Sec investment ratings (all ratings based on absolute return; All ratings and target price refers to 12-month performance horizon, unless mentioned otherwise)
BUY: >15% return; ADD: 5% to 15% return; HOLD: Negative 5% to Positive 5% return; REDUCE: Negative 5% to Negative 15% return; SELL: < negative 15% return
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I/We, Kunal Shah, CA; Renish Bhuva, CFA (ICFAI); Chintan Shah, CA; authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed
in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly
or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts are not registered as research analysts by FINRA and are not associated
persons of the ICICI Securities Inc. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies
mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.
Terms & conditions and other disclosures:
ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution
of financial products.
ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with
Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities
Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities
is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset
management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on
www.icicibank.com.
ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our
associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research
Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the
securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.
Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume
etc as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit
icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.
Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.
ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Institutional
Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the
Retail Research.
The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained
herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to
any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information
herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other
reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such
suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory
capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.
This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its
accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document
or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all
customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report
constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances.
The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their
own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any
recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates,
foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before
investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be
subject to change without notice.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the
subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from
the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage
services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage
services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its
associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation
of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of
this report.
Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the
report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.
Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/
beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this
report.
ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.
We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other
jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any
registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain
category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.
This report has not been prepared by ICICI Securities, Inc. However, ICICI Securities, Inc. has reviewed the report and, in so far as it includes current or historical
information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.
21