Name: Sai Mithun Guttikonda; Word Count: 695; FK Score: 11.

Wolves Make Roadways Safer, Generating Large Economic Returns To Predator

Conservation

Research has revealed that reintroducing predators into a region can have cascading ecological
effects. But there is limited knowledge of how this impacts human lives and property. To address this
gap, Raynor et al. 2021 conducted a study to assess the impact of restoring wolf populations on deer-
vehicle collisions (DVCs) in Wisconsin. They aimed to quantify the influence of wolves on DVCs
and understand the potential effects on lives and property.

Researchers collected a unique dataset covering 63 counties (29 counties where wolves were
introduced at some point, and 34 non-wolf counties) in Wisconsin from 1988 to 2010. It also
included data on DVCs, deer and wolf populations, and weather. They excluded 8 counties in
Wisconsin along with Menominee County, due to data gaps. The Wisconsin Department of
Transportation provided police-reported DVC data. The University of Wisconsin-Madison provided
crash-level data. The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) provided post-hunt
white-tailed deer population data. Midwinter wolf pack locations and populations were also obtained
from the WDNR. Lastly, PRISM Climate Group provided daily temperature and precipitation data.

Researchers used two analysis models with a difference in difference and triple differences approach.
As a first step, they wanted to control for other factors that could impact vehicle collisions in
different counties by including fixed effects. The county fixed effects accounted for spatial
differences between counties that remain constant over time. Such as the geographical features like
mountains and narrow roads, water bodies etc. The year-fixed effects captured factors that affected
all counties over time. Such as gas prices that determine the average drive time or technological
advancements in Car safety. They also included weather-fixed effects to account for fluctuations in
weather patterns. Some of them are precipitation levels, cold or sunny days impacting visibilities, etc.

The first model analyzes the effect of wolf presence on DVCs in different counties. This model
examines the impact of wolf presence, by measuring the frequency of DVCs before and after wolf
entry (First difference) in counties with and without wolves (Second Difference). The obtained
results measure the changes in deer-vehicle collisions under wolves presence. However, the model
does not account for other time-varying factors that may affect roadway safety in different counties.
Such as changes in traffic due to a new company or employer opening in a county, road quality, or
driver demographics. These are some of the factors that could influence DVC rates, irrespective of
wolf presence.

To address this, Researchers used a second model that analyzed non-deer vehicle collisions.
Controlling for changes in non-DVCs builds the previous estimated model into the triple-differences
model. Three counties in which wolves had exited at some point were excluded from the analysis in
this model. The triple difference model result indicates how the number of DVCs changes relative to
non-DVCs (the third difference) before versus after wolf arrival in wolf versus non-wolf counties.
This triple-differences model allows us to account for all time-varying factors that affect roadway
safety and collisions but not DVCs specifically.
Results showed a 23.7% reduction in DVCs within the wolf counties which translates into 38 fewer
DVCs per year. The presence of wolves reduces losses due to wildlife-vehicle collisions by an
average of $375,000 per county per year, with a total savings of $10.9 million per year across 29
counties. This economic benefit outweighs the costs of verified wolf predation, which resulted in an
average of $174,000 per year or a total of $3.1 million in compensatory payments. It implies a
benefits-to-costs ratio of 63:1.

Researchers were able to demonstrate that the re-introduction of wolves at the county level can have
significant benefits in reducing deer-vehicle collisions and protecting life and property losses.
However, some researchers have recommended conducting follow-up studies. One of them involves
measuring the behavior of deer and wolves using collars. This was to assess the impact of wolves on
the behavior of their prey and the costs and benefits of reintroducing them. But conducting such a
study poses practical challenges. Majorly, collaring enough deer and wolves for a significant sample
size, as well as logistical and cost challenges in tracking them over a long period.