Research on Terrorism

Thends, Achievements & Failures

Editor
Andrew Silke

Foreword
Bruce Floffrnan

FRANK CASS
LONDON . PORTLAND, OR
 Fir* publßhed in 2004 in Great Brítain by
FRANK CASS
11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE

and in the United States of America by

FRANK CASS
29'Vlest 35th Street,
NewYork, NY 1001

Web s it e'. www. frankcess -com

Frank Cass is an ímprint of the Täylor & Francß Croup

Copyright @ 2004 Andrew Silke

Britßh Library Cataloguíng in Publication Data

Research on Terrorism: trends, achievements and failures. -

(Cass series on political violence)
1. Tèrrorism 2. Terrorism - Research - Methodology
I. Silke, Andrew
303.6>25;,072

rsBN 0 -7 L 46-s31 1,-X (hbk)

ISBN 0-7 146-8273-X (pbk)
ISSN 1365-0580',

Library of Congress Catalogíng- in-Publícation Data

Research on terrorism: trends, achievements, and failures / editor, Andrew Silke; foreword,
=\ Bruce Hoffman.
cm. - (Cass series on political violence, ISSN 1365-0580)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Tèrrorism - Research. I. Silke, Andrew. II. Series.
8N6437.-r496 2003
303.6t25t072 - dc22

2003062610

An nghß reserued. No part of thß publicøtion may be reproduced, stored ín or introduced into a retrieual
system or transnuittedin anyform or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or other-
wise, without the prior written perrnission of the publßher of thß book.

Typeset in 11/13pt Adine 401, by Frank Cass

Printed in Great Britain by MPG Books Ltd, Bodmin, Cornwall
,,

Contents

List of Illustrations vll

List of Tables ix

About the Editor xi

About the Contributors xii

Foreword
Bruce Hofman >a¡ii

1 An Introduction to Terrorism Research

Andrew Silke 1

2 The Case for earch

John Horgan 30

3 The Devil You Know: Continuing Problems

with Research on Terrorism
Andrew Silke 57

4 Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism Research:

Past and Future
Cauin Cameron 72

5 Everything That Descends Must Converge:

Terrorism, Globalism and Democrary
Leonard Weinberg and William Eubank 91

6 Terrorism and Knowledge Growth:

A Databases and Internet Analysis
Außhag Gordon 104

7 \X/hat Do'[/e Know About the Substitution

Effect in Tiansnational Terrorism?
Walter Enders and Todd Sandler 119
V1 Research on Ti:rrorism

8 Conflict Theory and the Tiajectory of

Terrorist Campaigns in Western Europe
Leonard Weinberg and Louise Ríchardson 138

9 Breaking the Cycle: Empirical Research

and Postgraduate Studies on Terrorism
Frederírk Schulze I6I
10 The Road Less Thavelled: Recent Thends in
Terrorism Research
Andrew Silke 186

11 Redefìning the Issues: The Future of Terrorism

Research and the Search for Empathy
Gaetano Joe Ilardi 214

Index 229
 List of lllustrations

3.1,. Methods in Terrorism Research, 1995-99 62

3.2. Statistical Analysis in Terrorism Research, 1,995-2000 66
3.3. Comparing the IJse of Statistical Analysis in
Social Science Research, 1,995-99 67
6.1,. Comparing the Level of International Terrorist
Incidents with Publications on Terrorism
(Monographs and Articles), 197 9-98 107
6.2. Number of Terrorism-Related Journals in Circulation 110
6.3. The Growth in Terrorism Publications 1r1.
7 .1. All Incidents 129
7.2. Individuals Killed 129
7.3. Proportions of Incidents Involving Casualties and Deaths 130
7.4. Assassinations 131
il
l1

List of Thbles

3.1. Sources of Research Data on Terrorism 60

5.1. Relations hip benveen'W'aves of Dem ocr atization and
Level of Globalization 98
6.1,. Growth of Terrorism Literature in the Social Science
Databases 109
6.2. Knowledge Growth and the LJse of Statistics 114
6.3. The Growth of Terrorism Monographs and Government
Reports in Online Databases, L9802001 115
10.1. Basic Ti^ends in Publishing 190
10.2. The Most Prolific,\uthors in the Major Terrorism
Journals, 1,990-99 192
10.3. The Professional Backgrounds of Authors 193
10.4. Thends in the Professional Backgrounds ofAuthors 194
10.5. Signifìcant Changes in the Backgrouhds of Authors 195
10.6. Country of Residence of Authors 196
1,0.7. TÌ^ends in the Country of Residence of Authors 197
10.8. Signifìcant Changes in Country of Residence ofAuthors 198
10.9. Country Focus ofArticles 199
10.10. Country Focus ofArticles: Changes Over Time 20r
'World
10.11. Region Focus of Articles, 1990-99 202
10.12.
'V/orld Region Focus of Articles: Changes Over Time 203
10.13. Group Focus of Articles, 1.990-99 204
I0.14. Terrorist-Type Focus of Articles, 1,990-99 206
10.15. Terrorist-Type Focus ofArticles: Changes Over Time 206
t
Ë
tf

About the Editor

Dr Andrew Silke (BSc Flons, AFBPsS, PhD) has a background in

forensic psychology tnd has worked both in academia and for govern-
ment. He has published extensively on terrorists and terrorism in jour-
nals, books and the popular press, and his most recent book on the
subject was Ti:rrorists, Wctíms and Society: Psychologíca| Perspectíues on
'V/iley (2003). He is an
Tërrorism and íts Consequences, published by
Honorary Senior Research Associate of the Centre for the Study of
Terrorism and Political Violence at the lJniversiry of St Andrews and is
a Fellow of the LJniversity of Leicester. His work has taken him to
Northern lreland, the Middle East and Latin r\merica. He is a member
of the International Association for Counterterrorism and Security
Professionals and serves on the United Nations Roster of Terrorism
Experts.
E-mail: andrew sitke@yahoo.co.uk
' +
 About the Contributors

Dr Gavin camerorl School of English, Sociology, politics and

Contemporary History, LJniversity of Salford, Salford, Greater
Manchesrer, M5 4WT, United Kingdom.
Gavin Cameron is a lecturer in politics and military history at the
lJniversify of Salford in England. His research focuses on rerrorism
using non-conventional weapons, and on strategies to counter this
threat. His book, Nuclear Ti:rrorism: A Threat rLssessmentfor the Tt"uenty-jrst
Century (Palgrave) was publishe d in 1999. FIe received his docrorare in
International Relations from the lJniversity of St Andrews in Scotland,
and has been a research fellow at the Center for Nonproliferation
Studies in Monterey, Californta and at the Belfer Center for Science
and International Affairs at Haward lJniversity.

Dr Walter Enders, Department of Economics, Finance and Legal

S tudies, lJniversiry of Alab am4 Tì-lscaloosa, Alaba rna 37 47 5, LJSA.
Walter Enders is the Lee Bidgood Professor of Economics at the
lJniversity of Alabama. He received his doctorate in Economics from
Columbia LJniversity in NewYork. F{is research focuses on time-series
econometrics with a special emphasis on the dynamic aspects of
terrorism. He has published articles in the American Economic Reuiew
(published by the American Economics Association), the American
Politícal Science Reuiew (published by the Ame rican Political Science
Association) and theJournal of Business and Economics Statßtics (published
by the American Statistical Association). He has also published four
books including : Applied Time- S eries Econometrics andRáIS H andbook.
for
Econometric Time- Series.

Professor V/illiam Eubank, Departmenr of political Science,

lJniversity of Nevada, Reno, Nl-V 89557, USA.
V/illiam Eubank is an Associate Professor in the Deparrment of Political
Science at the tlniversity of Nevada. He and his co-author, Leonard
'Weinberg,
have written extensively on the subject of political violence
and terrorism. Their work includes tests of Flirshman's Exit Voice and
Loyalty hypothesis, the relationship between political violence and
r
About the Contributors xlll

democratic structures, political culture and election systems. Besides

his interest in terrorism, Eubank is interested in constitutionalism,
voting, and statistics and choice theory.

Avishag Gordon, Computer Science Library Technion , Haifa 32000,

Israel.
Gordon is teaching in the Department of Lrbrary Science at
'kishag
(Jniversiry
Haifa and has a Senior Librarian position in the Computer
Science Llbrary at the Technion - Israel Institute of Technology. Her
main research interest is the integration of Ltbrary and Information
research methods into terrorism research. She has academic degrees in
Political Science, Jewish History Mass Communication (M,\) and
L1brary Science (Diploma), and a Post-Master degree in Library and
Information Science (CAS), and she is currently working on her PhD
in Political Science.

Dr John Horgan, Department of Applied Psychology, tlniversity

College Cork, Enterprise Centre, North Mall, Cork Ciry Republic of
Ireland.
DrJohn Florgan is a lecturer at the Departrnent ofApplied Psychology,
University College, Cork, where he teaches courses on forensic
psychology and the psychology of terrorism and political violence. His
work on terrorism has been published in a variery of sources and his
books include: The Future of Ti:rrorism (2000) and The Psychology of
Tërrorism (2003), both with Max Tàylor and published by Frank Cass
(London).

Gaetano Ilardi, Securiry Intelligence Group, Victoria Police, Australia.

Gaetano Joe Ilardi is a police offìcer and intelligence analyst with the
Securiry Intelligence Group, Victoria Police, Australia. He has exten-
sive policing experience, especially in the areas of criminal and coun-
terterrorist intelligence. A former board member of the Australian
Institute of Professional Intelligence Officers (AIPIO), Gaetano is in
the process of completing his PhD into the function of intelligence
within terrorist orgtnizations, in particular al Qa'eda and the IRA.

Professor Louise Richardson, Radcliffe Institute for Advanced

Study, Flarvard universiV, F^y Flouse, L0 Garden Street, Cambridge,
}i{.A02138, USA.
Louise Richardson is Executive Dean at the Radcliffe Institute for
Advanced Study at Haward LJniversiry. Educated at Tfinity College,
x1v Research on Tizrrorism

Dublin and Harvard universiry she joined the faculty of the

Department of Governmenr at Harvard university in 1,989. A Political
Scientist by training, Richardson has taught courses on international
terrorism and terrorism movements at Harvard College and Harvard
La,w School, for which she has won a number of awards. She also
teaches international security and international relations. Author of
When Allies Dtfr, 0996), she has written articles and chapters on British
foreign and defence policy, security institutions and prospect theory as
well as international terrorism. Richardson is currently researching the
patterns of terrorist violence. She is co-editor of the SUNY series on
trajectories of terrorist violence.

Professor Todd Sandler, School of International Relations, IJniversity

of Southern California, Von Kleinsmid Center 330, Los Angeles, CA
90089-0043, USA.
Todd Sandler is the Robert R. and Katherlm A. Dockson Chair of
International Relations and Economics at the university of Southern
California, Los Angeles. He has previously held the position of
Distinguished Professor of Economics and Political Science at Iowa
State Llniversity. His writings address public goods and externalities,
defence and peace economics, environmental economics, foreign assis-
tance and other topics. He has published papers on terrorism since 1983.
FIis terrorism papers have appeared in the American Economic Reuiew,
Amerícan Polítical Science Reuiew, Journal of Law and Economics, International
Studies Quarterly, I{yklos andTi:rrorísm and PolitícalViolence. He has written:
Economic Concepts for the Socíal Scíences (Cambridge LJniversity Press,
2001); Global Challenges (Cambridge tlniversity Press, 1997); and
Collectiue Acfion: Theory and Applications (LJniversiry of Michigan Press,
1992) . He has co-writte n The Theory of Externalities, Public Goods, and Club
Coods,2nd edn (Cambridge lJniversity Press, 1996).

Frederick Schulze, Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political

Violence, university of St Andrews, Fife, I{Y16 gAL, Scotland.
Frederick Schulze is a postgraduate student in International Relations
and ajunior Research Associate at the Centre for the Study of Terrorism
and Political Violence at the universiry of St Andrews in Scotland. His
graduate work was in Social Sciences at'Wesleyan university; after
which he lectured in History at Central Connecticut Llniversity in
New Britain, Connecticut. He is currently in the process of completing
his dissertation on the interaction between the Christian Identity
movement and the terrorist organization The Order.
F

Foreword

Much attention has been focused on the intelligence failures that led to
the tragic events of 11th September 2001.. Surprisingly little attention,
however, has been devoted to the academic failures. Although these
were patently less consequential, they were no less signifìcant: calling
into question the relevance of much of the scholarship on terrorism
during the years leading up to 9/1,1. That bin Laden and al-Qa'eda
figured so inconspicuously in this literature is a reflection notjust of a
failure to anticipate or interpret emerging trends in terrorist violence
but of an intellectual myopia that characterized the field.
Until 9/11, for example, the conventional wisdom was that terrorists
would abjure from carrying out mass casualty attacks using conven-
tional weapons and would shun CBRN (chemical, biological, radiolog-
ical or nuclear) weapons simply because there was little reason for them
to kill en mûsse when the death of a handful of persons often sufficed. In
the case of CBRN, this logic was taken further with the argument that
there were few realistic demands that terrorists could make by threat-
ening the use of such indiscriminate weapons, and little that they could
accomplish by using them that they could not achieve otherwise. In
short, the prevalent belief was that terrorists remained more interested
in publicity than in killing and therefore had neither the need nor the
interest in annihilating large numbers of people
By the mid-1,990s, however, the appearance of new adversaries, with
new motivations and new rationales, began to challenge the conven-
tional wisdom. In particular, incidents like the 1993 bombing of the
'V/orld
Thade Center, where the terrorists sought to topple one of the
1O7-storey Twin Towers onto the other with the aim of killing 250,000
people; the 1995 sarin nerve gas on the Toþo subway; the massive
explosion at a US government office building in Oklahoma City a
month later; the bombings of the American embassies in Kenya and
Tanzania in 1998; and the litany of aborted or averted attacks that
continued literally until the eve of the new century and would likely
have produced similar incidents of carnage, called into question the
view that the selÊimposed constraints which hitherto had prevented
terrorists either from employing CBRN or undertaking mass casualty
attacks with less exotic weaponry were still applied. Those who
XVlII Research on Tërrorism

advanced such views, moreover, were often dismissed sceptically or

decried for over-reacting and scaremongering. Observing this debate,
an outsider would be inclined to conclude that terrorism scholars were
a surprisingly conservative breed: aloof to, or dismissive of, the more
speculative products of their colleagues' analytical and predictive efforts.
On9/1,1,, of course, bin Laden wiped the slate clean of the conven-
tional wisdom on terrorists and terrorism and, by doing so, ushered in
a new era of conflict - as well as a new discourse about it. The publica-
tion of Tërrorism Research: Tiends, Achieuements and Failures is therefore
both a timely and welcome addition to the literature. As its title states,
the volume's purpose is to assess the state of the field; to reflect on its
successes and assess its failures. The Editor has accordingly assembled
an enviable collection of 13 essays by 11 leading scholars in the fìeld.
They include well-known and well-established fìgures like Professors
.V/einberg, 'W'alter
Leonard William Eubank, Enders and Todd Sandler,
who have been teachers and mentors to generations of students; as well
as some of their former students, along with other emerging junior
scholars. In combination, they represent among the most dynamic and
forward-looking thinkers in the field today.
One key theme which runs through the"book is the need for a better
understanding of the motivations, thought processes, mindsets and
historical consciousness of terrorists. This, the Editor and many of the
volume's contributors argue, is essential if the {ìeld is to grow in new and
beneficial directions, retain its relevance, and provide incisive and
insightful analysis ofwhat has become one of the most compelling secu-
rity issues of our time. John Florgan hits the nail precisely on the head
in his chapter, where he laments the 'almost total reliance on second^ry
and tertiary source material' and concomitant dearth of first-hand
research. BrianJenkins, a doyen of the fìeld, if not one of its 'founding
fathers', once compared terrorism analysts to Africa's Vctorian-era
cartographers. Just as the cartographers a century ago mapped from a
distance a vast and impenetrable continent few of them had ever seen,
most contemp orary terrorism research is conducted far removed from,
and therefore with little direct knowledge ol the actual terrorists them-
selves. Indeed, although one can find a literature replete with accounts
of the historical origins and tactics of various groups, as well as concep-
tual frameworks for understanding theories and strategies of violent
political change, few show any genuine, firsthand familiarity or direct
understanding of the subjects of these scholarly inquiries.
Research on Ti:rrorism: Tiends, Achieuements and Failures is an important
contribution to the study of terrorism that comes at an especially critical
 Foreword )cx

time. It paints an effective and compelling portrait of the need for greater
perspicacity, insight and originality in the fìeld. Its message is clear: if the
voice of the scholarly community is to be heard by those poliry-makers
responsible for defending against and fìghting terrorism as well as for
finding ways to resolve longstanding conflicts and to address the griev-
ances and causes that result in terrorism, the scholarly work on this
subject must be relevant, empirical, incisive, and truly informed.
f

An Introduction to Terrorism
Research
ANDREV/ SILKE

Of all men's miseries the bitterest is this,

to know so much and to have control over nothing
Herodotus (484-432 þC)

fEnnoRISM ts being increasingly seen as one of the most serious,

I disturbing and damaging problems of life in our time. Research on
terrorism is not abstract science; it involves real people with real lives
which are ruined, changed and controlled by the processes under study.
Organized and planned carrlpargns of violence do not happen within a
vacuum and they are not driven by trivial or fleeting motivations which
reside in, and are shared only by, the perpetrators. Terrorism is not the
result of psychopathy or mental illness. After 30 years of research all that
psychologists can safely say of terrorists is that their outstanding char-
acteristic is their normality. Terrorism is not the work of madmen or
devils, and to try and fight it on those terms is to fight it with a very
mistaken concept ofwho your enemies are and why others may support
and sympathise with them.
Research on terrorism has had a deeply troubled past. Frequently
neglected and often overlooked, the science of terror has been
conducted in the cracks and crevices which lie bewveen the large
academic disciplines. There has been a chronic shortage of e>çerienced
researchers - a huge proportion of the literature is the work of fleeting
visitors: individuals who are often poorly aware of what has already
been done and naive in their methods and conclusions. Thus, while the
2 Research on Tërrorísm

volume of what has been written is both massive and growing, the
quality of the content leaves much to be desired. So much is dross,
repetitive and ill-informed. As Brian Jenkins commented sombrely
after 9/1.1., 'we are deluged with material but still know too little'.1
,\nd yet, there can be few topics in the social sciences which cry out
louder for better understanding. The very word, 'terrorism', is charged
with emotion and horror. Not surprisingly, here is a subject which
provokes extreme perceptions in almost all who consider and think
about it; perceptions which spill easily into beließ about the actors
behind the violence. Misconceptions and prejudices born in the wake
of the amorality of terrorist acts - the suffering of victims and the
wanton destruction of property - if pervasive enough go on to influence
the policies used to combat terrorism and can have a powerful influence
(and often a poor one) on offìcial attitudes on how to deal with the
terrorists. Providing policy-makers and the wider world with the find-
ings of balanced and reliable research has long been recognised as essen-
tial to producing effective strategies and policies to counter and prevent
terronsm.
At a time when there is an increasing sense of paranoia regarding
terrorism, there is a strong need for balanced, expert and informed
research into this subject. Good research can provide powerful tools for
insight and guidance on what has become one of the most challenging
problems of the modern age,yet good research has often been desper-
ately lacking. This book aims ro address rhe need to provide an up-to-
date assessment of the state and nature of research on terrorism. In
doing So, the chapters assembled here examine the k.y issues
surrounding the conduct and application of terrorism research. The
focus of this volume is ultimately to present a clear and succinct view of
the key issues and problems facing terrorism research, and to look at
recent trends in the research, at its strengths and weaknesses and at the
impact it is having (or is failing to have) in a world after 9/11.

A FOCUS FOR STUDY

Most books on terrorism, and certainly almost all with an academic or

research focus, start with a discussion on how terrorism is defined. Or,
to be more accurate, they discuss the peculiar and long-running failure
to reach an agreed defìnition. This common opening, seen agatî in this
volume, is not a reflection that the various authors lack the necessary
originality or imagination for novel segues into their respective tomes.