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(eBook PDF) Understandable Statistics

11th Edition by Charles Henry Brase


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cOntents

Preface xv
Table of Prerequisite Material 1

1 Getting started 2
Focus Problem: Where Have All the Fireflies Gone? 3
1.1 What Is Statistics? 4
1.2 Random Samples 13
1.3 Introduction to Experimental Design 22
Summary 32
Important Words & Symbols 32
Chapter Review Problems 33
Data Highlights: Group Projects 35
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 36

UsinG technOlOGy 37

2 Organizing data 40
Focus Problem: say It with Pictures 41
2.1 Frequency Distributions, Histograms, and Related Topics 42
2.2 Bar Graphs, Circle Graphs, and Time-Series Graphs 59
2.3 Stem-and-Leaf Displays 69
Summary 78
Important Words & Symbols 78
Chapter Review Problems 79
Data Highlights: Group Projects 82
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 84

UsinG technOlOGy 85

3 averages and Variation 88


Focus Problem: The educational Advantage 89
3.1 Measures of Central Tendency: Mode, Median, and Mean 90
3.2 Measures of Variation 102
3.3 Percentiles and Box-and-Whisker Plots 121
Summary 132
Important Words & Symbols 132
Chapter Review Problems 133
Data Highlights: Group Projects 135
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 137
UsinG technOlOGy 138

CuMuLaTIVE REVIEW PRoBLEMS: cHAPTers 1–3 139

4 elementary Probability theory 142


Focus Problem: How often Do lie Detectors lie? 143
4.1 What Is Probability? 144
4.2 Some Probability Rules—Compound Events 155
iii
Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
iv CONTENTS

4.3 Trees and Counting Techniques 177


Summary 188
Important Words & Symbols 188
Chapter Review Problems 189
Data Highlights: Group Projects 191
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 193

UsinG technOlOGy 194

5 the binomial Probability


distribution and related topics 196
Focus Problem: Personality Preference Types: Introvert or
extrovert? 197
5.1 Introduction to Random Variables and Probability Distributions 198
5.2 Binomial Probabilities 212
5.3 additional Properties of the Binomial Distribution 229
5.4 The Geometric and Poisson Probability Distributions 242
Summary 260
Important Words & Symbols 260
Chapter Review Problems 261
Data Highlights: Group Projects 264
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 266

UsinG technOlOGy 268

6 normal curves and sampling distributions 270


Focus Problem: Impulse buying 271
6.1 Graphs of Normal Probability Distributions 272
6.2 Standard units and areas under the Standard Normal Distribution 288
6.3 areas under any Normal Curve 299
6.4 Sampling Distributions 314
6.5 The Central Limit Theorem 320
6.6 Normal approximation to Binomial Distribution and to p̂
Distribution 332
Summary 343
Important Words & Symbols 344
Chapter Review Problems 344
Data Highlights: Group Projects 347
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 348

UsinG technOlOGy 350

CuMuLaTIVE REVIEW PRoBLEMS: cHAPTers 4–6 354

7 estimation 358
Focus Problem: The Trouble with Wood Ducks 359
7.1 Estimating m When s Is Known 360
7.2 Estimating m When s Is unknown 374

Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
CONTENTS v

7.3 Estimating p in the Binomial Distribution 387


7.4 Estimating m1  m2 and p1  p2 400
Summary 423
Important Words & Symbols 423
Chapter Review Problems 424
Data Highlights: Group Projects 428
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 430

UsinG technOlOGy 431

8 hypothesis testing 434


Focus Problem: benford’s law: The Importance of being Number 1 435
8.1 Introduction to Statistical Tests 436
8.2 Testing the Mean m 452
8.3 Testing a Proportion p 468
8.4 Tests Involving Paired Differences (Dependent Samples) 479
8.5 Testing m1  m2 and p1  p2 (Independent Samples) 494
Summary 519
Finding the P-Value Corresponding to a Sample Test Statistic 519
Important Words & Symbols 520
Chapter Review Problems 521
Data Highlights: Group Projects 524
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 525

UsinG technOlOGy 526

9 correlation and regression 528


Focus Problem: changing Populations and crime rate 529
9.1 Scatter Diagrams and Linear Correlation 530
9.2 Linear Regression and the Coefficient of Determination 548
9.3 Inferences for Correlation and Regression 569
9.4 Multiple Regression 589
Summary 605
Important Words & Symbols 606
Chapter Review Problems 606
Data Highlights: Group Projects 610
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 610

UsinG technOlOGy 612

CuMuLaTIVE REVIEW PRoBLEMS: cHAPTers 7–9 616

10 chi-square and F distributions 620


Focus Problem: Archaeology in bandelier National monument 621
Part I: Inferences using the chi-square Distribution 622
overview of the Chi-Square Distribution 622
10.1 Chi-Square: Tests of Independence and of Homogeneity 623
10.2 Chi-Square: Goodness of Fit 638
10.3 Testing and Estimating a Single Variance or Standard Deviation 648

Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
vi CONTENTS

Part II: Inferences using the F Distribution 660


overview of the F Distribution 660
10.4 Testing Two Variances 661
10.5 one-Way aNoVa: Comparing Several Sample Means 671
10.6 Introduction to Two-Way aNoVa 687
Summary 698
Important Words & Symbols 699
Chapter Review Problems 699
Data Highlights: Group Projects 703
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 703

UsinG technOlOGy 704

11 nonparametric statistics 706


Focus Problem: How cold? compared to What? 707
11.1 The Sign Test for Matched Pairs 708
11.2 The Rank-Sum Test 716
11.3 Spearman Rank Correlation 724
11.4 Runs Test for Randomness 735
Summary 744
Important Words & Symbols 744
Chapter Review Problems 744
Data Highlights: Group Projects 746
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 747

CuMuLaTIVE REVIEW PRoBLEMS: cHAPTers 10–11 748

appendix i: additional topics a1


Part I: Bayes’s Theorem a1
Part II: The Hypergeometric Probability Distribution a5

appendix ii: tables a9


Table 1: Random Numbers A9
Table 2: Binomial Coefficients Cn,r A10
Table 3: Binomial Probability Distribution Cn,r prqnr A11
Table 4: Poisson Probability Distribution A16
Table 5: Areas of a Standard Normal Distribution A22
Table 6: Critical Values for Student’s t Distribution A24
Table 7: The x2 Distribution A25
Table 8: Critical Values for F Distribution A26
Table 9: Critical Values for Spearman Rank Correlation, rs A36
Table 10: Critical Values for Number of Runs R (Level of Significance
a 5 0.05) A37
Answers and Key Steps to Odd-Numbered Problems A38
Answers to Selected Even-Numbered Problems A76
Index I1

Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
critical thinkinG

Students need to develop critical thinking skills in order to understand and evaluate the limitations
of statistical methods. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods makes students aware of
method appropriateness, assumptions, biases, and justifiable conclusions.

b critical Thinking
CRITICAL THINKING UNUSUAL VALUES Critical thinking is an important
Chebyshev’s theorem tells us that no matter what the data distribution skill for students to develop in or-
looks like, at least 75% of the data will fall within 2 standard deviations der to avoid reaching misleading
of the mean. As we will see in Chapter 6, when the distribution is mound-
shaped and symmetrical, about 95% of the data are within 2 standard
conclusions. The Critical Thinking
deviations of the mean. Data values beyond 2 standard deviations from feature provides additional
the mean are less common than those closer to the mean. clarification on specific concepts
In fact, one indicator that a data value might be an outlier is that it is as a safeguard against incorrect
more than 2.5 standard deviations from the mean (Source: Statistics, by evaluation of information.
G. Upton and I. Cook, Oxford University Press).

UNUSUAL VALUES
For a binomial distribution, it is unusual for the number of successes r to be
higher than m 1 2.5s or lower than m 2.5s.

We can use this indicator to determine whether a number of


successes out of n trials in a binomial experiment are unusual.
For instance, consider a binomial experiment with 20 trials for which
probability of success on a single trial is p 5 0.70. The expected number
of successes is m 5 14, with a standard deviation of s < 2. A number of
successes above 19 or below 9 would be considered unusual. However,
such numbers of successes are possible.

Interpretation c SOLUTION: Since we want to know the number of standard deviations from the
mean, we want to convert 6.9 to standard z units.
Increasingly, calculators and computers are
used to generate the numeric results of a statisti- x m 6.9 8
cal process. However, the student still needs to z5
s
5
0.5
5 2.20
correctly interpret those results in the context
of a particular application. The Interpretation Interpretation The amount of cheese on the selected pizza is only 2.20 standard devi-
feature calls attention to this important step. ations below the mean. The fact that z is negative indicates that the amount of cheese
Interpretation is stressed in examples, in guided is 2.20 standard deviations below the mean. The parlor will not lose its franchise
exercises, and in the problem sets. based on this sample.

6. Interpretation A campus performance series features plays, music groups, b NEW! critical Thinking and
dance troops, and stand-up comedy. The committee responsible for selecting
the performance groups include three students chosen at random from a pool
Interpretation exercises
of volunteers. This year the 30 volunteers came from a variety of majors. In every section and chapter problem set, Critical Thinking
However, the three students for the committee were all music majors. Does
this fact indicate there was bias in the selection process and that the selection problems provide students with the opportunity to test their
process was not random? Explain. understanding of the application of statistical methods and
7 Critical Thinking Greg took a random sample of size 100 from the population their interpretation of their results. Interpretation problems
of current season ticket holders to State College men’s basketball games. ask students to apply statistical results to the particular
Then he took a random sample of size 100 from the population of current application.
season ticket holders to State College women’s basketball games.
(a)
venience, random) did Greg use to sample from the population of current
season ticket holders to all State College basketball games played by
either men or women?
(b) Is it appropriate to pool the samples and claim to have a random sample of
size 200 from the population of current season ticket holders to all State
College home basketball games played by either men or women? Explain.

vii
Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
Statistical Literacy

No language, including statistics, can be spoken without learning the vocabulary. Understandable
Statistics: Concepts and Methods introduces statistical terms with deliberate care.

b NEW! What Does (concept,


WHAT DOES THE LEVEL OF MEASUREMENT TELL US? method, statistical result) Tell Us?
The level of measurement tells us which arithmetic processes are appro- This feature gives a brief summary of the informa-
priate for the data. This is important because different statistical processes tion we obtain from the named concept, method,
require various kinds of arithmetic. In some instances all we need to do is or statistical result.
In such cases nomi-
nal (and higher) data levels are all appropriate. In other cases we need to or-
der the data, so nominal data would not be suitable. Many other statistical
processes require division, so data need to be at the ratio level. Just keep
the nature of the data in mind before beginning statistical computations.

NEW! Important Features of a


(concept, method, or result) c IMPORTANT FEATURES OF A SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLE
In statistics we use many different types of For a simple random sample
graphs, samples, data, and analytical methods. • n from the population has an equal
The features of each such tool help us select the chance of being selected.
most appropriate ones to use and help us inter- • No researcher bias occurs in the items selected for the sample.
pret the information we receive from applications • -
ulation. For instance, from a population of 10 cats and 10 dogs, a
of the tools.
random sample of size 6 could consist of all cats.

b Statistical Literacy Problems


SECTION 6.1 1. Statistical Literacy Which, if any, of the curves in Figure 6-10 look(s) like a
PROBLEMS normal curve? If a curve is not a normal curve, tell why. In every section and chapter problem set,
2. Statistical Literacy m, Statistical Literacy problems test student under-
m 1 s, and s.
standing of terminology, statistical methods,
FI G U RE 6 -10 and the appropriate conditions for use of the
different processes.

F I G UR E 6 - 1 1

Definition Boxes c BOX-AND-WHISKER PLOTS


Whenever important terms are introduced in The quartiles together with the low and high data values give us a very useful
text, tan definition boxes appear within the number summary of the data and their spread.
­discussions. These boxes make it easy to refer-
ence or review terms as they are used further.
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY
Lowest value, Q1, median, Q3, highest value

box-and-whisker plot. Box-and-whisker plots provide another useful technique


from exploratory data analysis (EDA) for describing data.

viii
Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
statistical literacy

b Important Words
IMPORTANT Section 4.1 Multiplication rules of probability (for & symbols
WORDS & Probability of an event A, P(A) 144 independent and dependent events) 156
SYMBOLS Intuition 144 More than two independent events 161 The Important Words &
Relative frequency 144 Probability of A or B 161
Equally likely outcomes 144 Event A and B 161 Symbols within the Chapter
Law of large numbers 146 Event A or B 161 Review feature at the end of
Statistical experiment 146 Mutually exclusive events 163
Event 146 Addition rules (for mutually exclusive and each chapter summarizes
Simple event 146 general events) 163
More than two mutually exclusive
the terms introduced in the
Sample space 146
Complement of event Ac 148 events 165 Definition Boxes for student
Basic probability rules 168
Section 4.2
review at a glance. Page
Independent events 156 Section 4.3 numbers for first occurrence
Multiplication rule of counting 177
Dependent events 156
Probability of A and B 156 Tree diagram 178 of term are given for easy
Event A | B Factorial notation 181 reference.
Conditional probability 156 Permutations rule 181
P1A | B2 156 Combinations rule 183

linking concepts:
Writing Projects c LINKING CONCEPTS: Discuss each of the following topics in class or review the topics on your own. Then
write a brief but complete essay in which you summarize the main points. Please
WRITING PROJECTS
include formulas and graphs as appropriate.
Much of statistical literacy is the ability 1. What does it mean to say that we are going to use a sample to draw an inference
to communicate concepts effectively. about a population? Why is a random sample so important for this process? If
The Linking Concepts: Writing Projects we wanted a random sample of students in the cafeteria, why couldn’t we just
choose the students who order Diet Pepsi with their lunch? Comment on the
feature at the end of each chapter statement, “A random sample is like a miniature population, whereas samples
tests both statistical literacy and critical that are not random are likely to be biased.” Why would the students who order
thinking by asking the student to express Diet Pepsi with lunch not be a random sample of students in the cafeteria?
their understanding in words. 2. In your own words, explain the differences among the following sampling
-
ter sample, multistage sample, and convenience sample. Describe situations in
which each type might be useful.

5. Basic Computation: Central Limit Theorem Suppose x has a distribution with


b basic computation
a mean of 8 and a standard deviation of 16. Random samples of size n 5 64 Problems
are drawn. These problems focus student
(a) Describe the x distribution and compute the mean and standard deviation attention on relevant formulas,
of the distribution. requirements, and computation-
(b) Find the z value corresponding to x 5 9. al procedures. after practicing
(c) Find P1x 7 92. these skills, students are more
(d) Interpretation Would it be unusual for a random sample of size 64 from confident as they approach
real-world applications.
the x distribution to have a sample mean greater than 9? Explain.

30. Expand Your Knowledge: Geometric Mean When data consist of percent-
ages, ratios, growth rates, or other rates of change, the geometric mean is a
useful measure of central tendency. For n data values,
n
Geometric mean 5 1product of the n data values, assuming all data
values are positive
expand Your Knowledge
average growth factor over 5 years of an investment in a mutual
Problems c
Expand Your Knowledge problems present -
optional enrichment topics that go be- metric mean of 1.10, 1.12, 1.148, 1.038, and 1.16. Find the average growth
factor of this investment.
yond the material introduced in a section.
Note that for the same data, the relationships among the harmonic, geomet-
Vocabulary and concepts needed to solve ric, and arithmetic means are harmonic mean geometric mean arithmetic
the problems are included at point-of-use, mean (Source: Oxford Dictionary of Statistics).
expanding students’ statistical literacy.
ix
Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
directiOn and PUrPOse

Real knowledge is delivered through direction, not just facts. Understandable Statistics: Concepts
and Methods ensures the student knows what is being covered and why at every step along the
way to statistical literacy.

chapter Preview c
Questions NORMAL CURVES AND SAMPLING
Preview Questions at the beginning
of each chapter give the student a
DISTRIBUTIONS
taste of what types of questions can
be answered with an understanding
of the knowledge to come.
PREVIEW QUESTIONS
What are some characteristics of a normal distribution? What does the em-
pirical rule tell you about data spread around the mean? How can this
information be used in quality control? (SECTION 6.1)
Can you compare apples and oranges, or maybe elephants and butterflies? In
most cases, the answer is no—unless you first standardize your measurements.
What are a standard normal distribution and a standard z score? (SECTION 6.2)
How do you convert any normal distribution to a standard normal distribution?
How do you find probabilities of “standardized events”? (SECTION 6.3)
As humans, our experiences are finite and limited. Consequently, most of the im-
portant decisions in our lives are based on sample (incomplete) information.
What is a probability sampling distribution? How will sampling distributions
help us make good decisions based on incomplete information? (SECTION 6.4)
There is an old saying: All roads lead to Rome. In statistics, we could recast this
saying: All probability distributions average out to be normal distributions (as
the sample size increases). How can we take advantage of this in our study of
sampling distributions? (SECTION 6.5)
The binomial and normal distributions are two of the most important probability

Dana White/PhotoEdit
distributions in statistics. Under certain limiting conditions, the binomial can
be thought to evolve (or envelope) into the normal distribution. How can
you apply this concept in the real world? (SECTION 6.6)
Many issues in life come down to success or failure. In most cases, we will not be
FOCUS PROBLEM successful all the time, so proportions of successes are very important. What is
the probability sampling distribution for proportions? (SECTION 6.6)
Benford’s Law: The Importance of Being Number 1
Benford’s Law states that in a wide variety
of circumstances, numbers have “1” as their
first nonzero digit disproportionately often.
Benford’s Law applies to such diverse top-
ics as the drainage areas of rivers; properties
of chemicals; populations of towns; figures
in newspapers, magazines, and government
reports; and the half-lives of radioactive
atoms!

begin with “1” about 30% of the time, with “2”


about 18% of time, and with “3” about 12.5% of
the time. Larger digits occur less often. For ex-
ample, less than 5% of the numbers in circum- 8. Focus Problem: Benford’s Law Again, suppose you are the auditor for a very
stances such as these begin with the digit 9. This
is in dramatic contrast to a random sampling computer data bank (see Problem 7). You draw a random sample of n 5 228
situation, in which each of the digits 1 through r 5 92 p repre-
9 has an equal chance of appearing.
Corbis

leading digit of 1.
from large bodies of numerical records such
i. Test the claim that p is more than 0.301. Use a 5 0.01.
ii. If p is in fact larger than 0.301, it would seem there are too many num-

▲ chapter Focus Problems


from the point of view of the Internal Revenue Service. Comment from
The Preview Questions in each chapter are followed by the perspective of the Federal Bureau of Investigation as it looks for
a Focus Problem, which serves as a more specific ex-
ample of what questions the student will soon be able to iii. Comment on the following statement: “If we reject the null hypothesis at
answer. The Focus Problems are set within appropriate a, we have not proved H0 to be false. We can say that
the probability is a that we made a mistake in rejecting H0.” Based on the
applications and are incorporated into the end-of-section
outcome of the test, would you recommend further investigation before
exercises, giving students the opportunity to test their accusing the company of fraud?
understanding.
x
Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
directiOn and PUrPOse

Focus Points c
Each section opens with bul-
leted Focus Points describing
the primary learning objec-
tives of the section.

b looking Forward
L O O K I NG FO RWA RD This feature shows students where the presented material will be used
later. It helps motivate students to pay a little extra attention to key
In later chapters we will use information based topics.
on a sample and sample statistics to estimate
population parameters (Chapter 7) or make
decisions about the value of population param-
eters (Chapter 8).

CHAPTER REVIEW
In this chapter, you’ve seen that statistics is the • Sampling strategies, including simple random,
SUMMARY study of how to collect, organize, analyze, and -
interpret numerical information from popula- nience. Inferential techniques presented in this
tions or samples. This chapter discussed some text are based on simple random samples.
of the features of data and ways to collect data. • Methods of obtaining data: Use of a census,
In particular, the chapter discussed simulation, observational studies, experi-
• Individuals or subjects of a study and the vari- ments, and surveys
ables associated with those individuals • Concerns: Undercoverage of a population,
• - nonresponse, bias in data from surveys and
tive, and levels of measurement of data other factors, effects of confounding or lurk-
• Sample and population data. Summary ing variables on other variables, generaliza-
measurements from sample data are called tion of study results beyond the population of
statistics, and those from populations are the study, and study sponsorship
called parameters.

▲ chapter summaries
The Summary within each Chapter Review feature now also appears in bulleted
form, so students can see what they need to know at a glance.

xi
Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
real-WOrld skills

Statistics is not done in a vacuum. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods gives stu-
dents valuable skills for the real world with technology instruction, genuine applications, actual
data, and group projects.

REVISED! Tech Notes c


TECH NOTES Box-and-Whisker Plot
Tech Notes appearing throughout the Both Minitab and the TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire calculators support box-
text give students helpful hints on using and-whisker plots. On the TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire, the quartiles Q1 and Q3
are calculated as we calculate them in this text. In Minitab and Excel 2010, they are
TI-84Plus and TI-nspire (with TI-84Plus calculated using a slightly different process.
keypad) and TI-83Plus calculators, TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire (with TI-84Plus Keypad) Press STATPLOT ➤On.
Microsoft Excel 2010, and Minitab to Highlight box plot. Use Trace and the arrow keys to display the values of the
solve a problem. They include display
screens to help students visualize and
better understand the solution.

Med = 221.5

Excel 2010 Does not produce box-and-whisker plot. However, each value of the
Home ribbon, click the Insert Function
fx. In the dialogue box, select Statistical as the category and scroll to Quartile. In
the dialogue box, enter the data location and then enter the number of the value you

USING TECHNOLOGY Minitab Press Graph ➤ Boxplot. In the dialogue box, set Display to IQRange Box.

Binomial Distributions -
Although tables of binomial probabilities can be found in priate subtraction of probabilities, rather than addition of
most libraries, such tables are often inadequate. Either the
value of p (the probability of success on a trial) you are 3 to 7 easier.
looking for is not in the table, or the value of n (the number 3. Estimate the probability that Juneau will have at most 7
of trials) you are looking for is too large for the table. In clear days in December.
4. Estimate the probability that Seattle will have from 5 to
b REVISED!
Chapter 6, we will study the normal approximation to the
binomial. This approximation is a great help in many prac- 10 (including 5 and 10) clear days in December.
5. Estimate the probability that Hilo will have at least 12
using Technology
tical applications. Even so, we sometimes use the formula
clear days in December.
for the binomial probability distribution on a computer or
6. Estimate the probability that Phoenix will have 20 or
Further technology instruction
graphing calculator to compute the probability we want.
more clear days in December. is available at the end of each
Applications 7. Estimate the probability that Las Vegas will have from
20 to 25 (including 20 and 25) clear days in December. chapter in the using Technology
The following percentages were obtained over many years
of observation by the U.S. Weather Bureau. All data listed Technology Hints
section. Problems are presented
are for the month of December.
TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire (with TI-84 with real-world data from a vari-
Long-Term Mean % Plus keypad), Excel 2010, Minitab ety of disciplines that can
Location of Clear Days in Dec.
Juneau, Alaska 18%
be solved by using TI-84Plus and
for binomial distribution functions on the TI-84Plus/
Seattle, Washington 24% TI-83Plus/TI-nspire (with TI-84Plus keypad) calculators, TI-nspire (with TI-84Plus keypad)
Hilo, Hawaii 36% Excel 2010, and Minitab. and TI-83Plus calculators,
Honolulu, Hawaii
Las Vegas, Nevada
60%
75%
SPSS Microsoft Excel 2010, and
Phoenix, Arizona 77%
In SPSS, the function PDF.BINOM(q,n,p) gives the prob-
ability of q successes out of n trials, where p is the prob-
Minitab.
Adapted from Local Climatological Data, U.S. Weather Bureau publication, “Normals, ability of success on a single trial. In the data editor, name
Means, and Extremes” Table. a variable r and enter values 0 through n. Name another
In the locations listed, the month of December is a rela- variable Prob_r. Then use the menu choices Transform ➤
tively stable month with respect to weather. Since weather Compute. In the dialogue box, use Prob_r for the target
patterns from one day to the next are more or less the same, variable. In the function group, select PDF and Noncentral
it is reasonable to use a binomial probability model. PDF. In the function box, select PDF.BINOM(q,n,p). Use
1. Let r be the number of clear days in December. Since the variable r for q and appropriate values for n and p. Note
December has 31 days, 0 r 31. Using appropriate that the function CDF.BINOM(q,n,p), from the CDF and
Noncentral CDF group, gives the cumulative probability of
the probability P(r) for each of the listed locations when 0 through q successes.
r 5 0, 1, 2, . . . , 31.
2. For each location, what is the expected value of the
probability distribution? What is the standard deviation?

xii
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
real-WOrld skills

b UPDATED! Applications
Real-world applications are used from
the beginning to introduce each statisti-
cal process. Rather than just crunching
numbers, students come to appreciate
the value of statistics through relevant
examples.

11. Pain Management: Laser Therapy “Effect of Helium-Neon Laser


Auriculotherapy on Experimental Pain Threshold” is the title of an article in
the journal Physical Therapy (Vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 24–30). In this article, laser
therapy was discussed as a useful alternative to drugs in pain management of
chronically ill patients. To measure pain threshold, a machine was used that de-
livered low-voltage direct current to different parts of the body (wrist, neck, and
back). The machine measured current in milliamperes (mA). The pretreatment

Most exercises in each section c detectable) at m 5 3.15 mA with standard deviation s 5 1.45 mA. Assume that
are applications problems. the distribution of threshold pain, measured in milliamperes, is symmetrical and
more or less mound-shaped. Use the empirical rule to
(a) estimate a range of milliamperes centered about the mean in which about
68% of the experimental group had a threshold of pain.
(b) estimate a range of milliamperes centered about the mean in which about
95% of the experimental group had a threshold of pain.
12. Control Charts: Yellowstone National Park Yellowstone Park Medical
Services (YPMS) provides emergency health care for park visitors. Such
health care includes treatment for everything from indigestion and sunburn
to more serious injuries. A recent issue of Yellowstone Today (National Park
Service Publication) indicated that the average number of visitors treated
each day by YPMS is 21.7. The estimated standard deviation is 4.2 (summer
data). The distribution of numbers treated is approximately mound-shaped
and symmetrical.
(a) For a 10-day summer period, the following Data
b data Highlights:
show the number of visi-
tors treated each day by YPMS: Group Projects
Day 1 using
5 Group
26 7Projects,
3 8 students
49 10 gain
Number treated 25 experience
20 24 working
19 30 17 19 with16others
15 23 by
discussing a topic, analyzing data,
Make a control chart for the daily numberandofcollaborating
visitors treatedtobyformulate
YPMS, their
response
and plot the data on the control chart. Do the data to the questions
indicate posed in
that the num-
ber of visitors treated by YPMS is “in control”? Explain your answer.
the exercise.
(b) For another 10-day summer period, the following data were obtained:

Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number treated 20 15 12 21 24 28 32 36 35 37

Make a control chart, and plot the data on the chart. Interpretation Do
the data indicate that the number of visitors treated by YPMS is “in con-
trol” or “out of control”? Explain your answer. Identify all out-of-control
signals by type (I, II, or III). If you were the park superintendent, do you
think YPMS might need some (temporary) extra help? Explain.

xiii
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
MakinG the JUMP

Get to the “aha!” moment faster. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods provides the
push students need to get there through guidance and example.

b Procedures and
PROCEDURE
requirements
Procedure display boxes
HOW TO TEST M WHEN S IS KNOWN
summarize simple step-by-
Requirements step strategies for carrying
Let x be a random variable appropriate to your application. Obtain a simple out statistical procedures and
random sample (of size n) of x values from which you compute the sample methods as they are introduced.
mean x s is already known (perhaps from a previous study). If Requirements for using the
you can assume that x has a normal distribution, then any sample size n will procedures are also stated.
work. If you cannot assume this, then use a sample size n 30. Students can refer back to these
Procedure boxes as they practice using the
1. In the context of the application, state the null and alternate hypotheses procedures.
and set the a.
2. Use the known s, the sample size n, the value of x from the sample, and m
from the null hypothesis to compute the standardized sample test statistic.
x m
z5
s
1n
3. Use the standard normal distribution and the type of test, one-tailed
P-value corresponding to the test statistic.
4. Conclude the test. If P-value a, then reject H0. If P-value 7 a, then
do not reject H0.
5. Interpret your conclusion in the context of the application.

Guided exercises c
Students gain experience with new
procedures and methods through
Guided Exercises. Beside each
problem in a Guided Exercise, a
completely worked-out solution ap-
pears for immediate reinforcement.
xiv
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
Preface

Welcome to the exciting world of statistics! We have written this text to make statistics
accessible to everyone, including those with a limited mathematics background. Statistics
affects all aspects of our lives. Whether we are testing new medical devices or determin-
ing what will entertain us, applications of statistics are so numerous that, in a sense, we
are limited only by our own imagination in discovering new uses for statistics.

overvIeW
The eleventh edition of Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods continues to
emphasize concepts of statistics. Statistical methods are carefully presented with a fo-
cus on understanding both the suitability of the method and the meaning of the result.
Statistical methods and measurements are developed in the context of applications.
Critical thinking and interpretation are essential in understanding and evaluating
information. Statistical literacy is fundamental for applying and comprehending
statistical results. In this edition we have expanded and highlighted the treatment
of statistical literacy, critical thinking, and interpretation.
We have retained and expanded features that made the first 10 editions of the
text very readable. Definition boxes highlight important terms. Procedure displays
summarize steps for analyzing data. Examples, exercises, and problems touch on
applications appropriate to a broad range of interests.
The eleventh edition continues to have extensive online support. Online home-
work powered by a choice of Enhanced WebAssign or Aplia™ is now available
through CengageBrain.com. Instructional videos are available on DVD. The compan-
ion web site at http://www.cengage.com/statistics/brase11e contains more than 100
data sets (in Microsoft Excel, Minitab, SPSS, and TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire with
TI-84Plus keypad ASCII file formats), technology guides, lecture aids, a glossary, and
statistical tables.

New for the eleventh edition, available via Aplia™, is MindTap™ Reader, Cengage
Learning’s next-generation eBook. MindTap Reader provides robust opportunities for
students to annotate, take notes, navigate, and interact with the text (e.g., ReadSpeaker).
Annotations captured in MindTap Reader are automatically tied to the Notepad app,
where they can be viewed chronologically and in a cogent, linear fashion. Instructors
also can edit the text and assets in the Reader as well as add videos or URLs. Go to http://
www.cengage.com/mindtap for more information.

mAjor cHANGes IN THe eleveNTH eDITIoN


With each new edition, the authors reevaluate the scope, appropriateness, and effec-
tiveness of the text’s presentation and reflect on extensive user feedback. Revisions
have been made throughout the text to clarify explanations of important concepts and
to update problems.

critical Thinking, Interpretation, and statistical literacy


The eleventh edition of this text continues and expands the emphasis on critical
thinking, interpretation, and statistical literacy. Calculators and computers are very
good at providing numerical results of statistical processes. However, numbers from

xv
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
xvi PREFACE

a computer or calculator display are meaningless unless the user knows how to in-
terpret the results and if the statistical process is appropriate. This text helps students
determine whether or not a statistical method or process is appropriate. It helps stu-
dents understand what a statistic measures. It helps students interpret the results of a
confidence interval, hypothesis test, or liner regression model.

New Interpretation Features


To further understanding and interpretation of statistical concepts, methods, and re-
sults, we have included two new special features: What Does (a concept, method,
or result) Tell Us? and Important Features of a (concept, method, or result).
These features summarize the information we obtain from concepts and statistical
processes and give additional insights for further application.

New expand Your Knowledge Problems and Quick overview


Topics With Additional Applications
Expand Your Knowledge problems do just that! These are optional but contain very
useful information taken from the vast literature of statistics. These topics are not
included in the main text but are easily learned using material from the section or
previous sections. Although these topics are optional, the authors feel they add depth
and enrich a student’s learning experience. Each topic was chosen for its relatively
straightforward presentation and useful applications. All such problems and their
applications are flagged with a sun logo.
New Expand Your Knowledge problems in the eleventh edition involve donut
graphs; stratified sampling and the best estimate for the population mean m; the pro-
cess of using minimal variance for linear combinations of independent random vari-
ables; and serial correlation (also called autocorrelation).
Some of the other topics in Expand Your Knowledge problems or quick over-
views include graphs such as dotplots and variations on stem-and-leaf plots; outliers
in stem-and-leaf plots; harmonic and geometric means; moving averages; calculat-
ing odds in favor and odds against; extension of conditional probability to various
distributions such as the Poisson distribution and the normal distribution; Bayes’s
theorem; additional probability distributions such as the multinomial distribution,
negative binomial distribution, hypergeometric distribution, continuous uniform dis-
tribution, and exponential distribution; waiting time between Poisson events; quick
estimate of the standard deviation using the Empirical rule; plus four confidence
intervals for proportions; Satterthwaite’s approximation for degrees of freedom in
confidence intervals and hypothesis tests; relationship between confidence intervals
and two-tailed hypothesis testing; pooled two-sample procedures for confidence in-
tervals and hypothesis tests; resampling (also known as bootstrap); simulations of
confidence intervals and hypothesis tests using different samples of the same size;
mean and standard deviation for linear combinations of dependent random variables;
logarithmic transformations with the exponential growth model and the power law
model; and polynomial (curvilinear) regression.
For location of these optional topics in the text, please see the index.

revised examples and New section Problems


Examples and guided exercises have been updated and revised. Additional section
problems emphasize critical thinking and interpretation of statistical results.

excel 2010 and most recent operating system for the


TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus calculators
Excel 2010 instructions are included in the Tech Notes and Using Technology. The
latest operating system (v2.55MP) for the TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus calculators is also

Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
PREFACE xvii

discussed, with new functions such as the inverse t distribution and the chi-square
goodness of fit test described. One convenient feature of the operating system is that
it provides on-screen prompts for inputs required for many probability and statistical
functions. This operating system is already on new TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus calculators
and is available for download to older calculators at the Texas Instruments web site.

revised electronic student resources


Digital student resources and online tools that accompany Understandable Statistics have
been revised in accordance with recommendations from both student and faculty users.
Online interactive learning solutions, such as Aplia™ for Statistics—featuring the new
MindTap™ Reader—and Enhanced WebAssign, are both available.

coNTINuING coNTeNT
Introduction of Hypothesis Testing using P-values
In keeping with the use of computer technology and standard practice in research,
hypothesis testing is introduced using P-values. The critical region method is still
supported but not given primary emphasis.

use of student’s t Distribution in confidence Intervals and


Testing of means
If the normal distribution is used in confidence intervals and testing of means, then the
population standard deviation must be known. If the population standard deviation is
not known, then under conditions described in the text, the Student’s t distribution
is used. This is the most commonly used procedure in statistical research. It is also
used in statistical software packages such as Microsoft Excel, Minitab, SPSS, and
TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire calculators.

confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests of Difference


of means
If the normal distribution is used, then both population standard deviations must be
known. When this is not the case, the Student’s t distribution incorporates an approx-
imation for t, with a commonly used conservative choice for the degrees of freedom.
Satterthwaite’s approximation for the degrees of freedom as used in computer soft-
ware is also discussed. The pooled standard deviation is presented for appropriate
applications (s1  s2).

FeATures IN THe eleveNTH eDITIoN


chapter and section lead-ins
• Preview Questions at the beginning of each chapter are keyed to the sections.
• Focus Problems at the beginning of each chapter demonstrate types of questions
students can answer once they master the concepts and skills presented in the
chapter.
• Focus Points at the beginning of each section describe the primary learning objec-
tives of the section.

carefully Developed Pedagogy


• Examples show students how to select and use appropriate procedures.
• Guided Exercises within the sections give students an opportunity to work with
a new concept. Completely worked-out solutions appear beside each exercise to
give immediate reinforcement.

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
xviii PREFACE

• Definition boxes highlight important definitions throughout the text.


• Procedure displays summarize key strategies for carrying out statistical procedures
and methods. Conditions required for using the procedure are also stated.
• NEW! What Does (a concept method or result) Tell Us? summarizes information
we obtain from the named concepts and statistical processes and gives insight for
additional application.
• NEW! Important Features of a (concept, method, or result) summarizes the features
of the listed item.
• Looking Forward features give a brief preview of how a current topic is used later.
• Labels for each example or guided exercise highlight the technique, concept, or
process illustrated by the example or guided exercise. In addition, labels for sec-
tion and chapter problems describe the field of application and show the wide
variety of subjects in which statistics is used.
• Section and chapter problems require the student to use all the new concepts mas-
tered in the section or chapter. Problem sets include a variety of real-world appli-
cations with data or settings from identifiable sources. Key steps and solutions to
odd-numbered problems appear at the end of the book.
• Basic Computation problems ask students to practice using formulas and statisti-
cal methods on very small data sets. Such practice helps students understand what
a statistic measures.
• Statistical Literacy problems ask students to focus on correct terminology and
processes of appropriate statistical methods. Such problems occur in every section
and chapter problem set.
• Interpretation problems ask students to explain the meaning of the statistical
results in the context of the application.
• Critical Thinking problems ask students to analyze and comment on various
issues that arise in the application of statistical methods and in the interpreta-
tion of results. These problems occur in every section and chapter problem set.
• Expand Your Knowledge problems present enrichment topics such as negative
binomial distribution; conditional probability utilizing binomial, Poisson, and nor-
mal distributions; estimation of standard deviation from a range of data values;
and more.
• Cumulative review problem sets occur after every third chapter and include key
topics from previous chapters. Answers to all cumulative review problems are
given at the end of the book.
• Data Highlights and Linking Concepts provide group projects and writing projects.
• Viewpoints are brief essays presenting diverse situations in which statistics is used.
• Design and photos are appealing and enhance readability.

Technology Within the Text


• Tech Notes within sections provide brief point-of-use instructions for the
TI-84Plus, TI-83Plus, and TI-nspire (with 84Plus keypad) calculators, Microsoft
Excel 2010, and Minitab.
• Using Technology sections show the use of SPSS as well as the TI-84Plus,
TI-83Plus, and TI-nspire (with TI-84Plus keypad) calculators, Microsoft Excel,
and Minitab.

AlTerNATe rouTes THrouGH THe TexT


Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods, Eleventh Edition, is designed to be
flexible. It offers the professor a choice of teaching possibilities. In most one-semester
courses, it is not practical to cover all the material in depth. However, depending on the
emphasis of the course, the professor may choose to cover various topics. For help in
topic selection, refer to the Table of Prerequisite Material on page 1.
• Introducing linear regression early. For courses requiring an early presentation
of linear regression, the descriptive components of linear regression (Sections 9.1

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
PREFACE xix

and 9.2) can be presented any time after Chapter 3. However, inference topics
involving predictions, the correlation coefficient r, and the slope of the least-
squares line b require an introduction to confidence intervals (Sections 7.1 and
7.2) and hypothesis testing (Sections 8.1 and 8.2).
• Probability. For courses requiring minimal probability, Section 4.1 (What Is
Probability?) and the first part of Section 4.2 (Some Probability Rules—Compound
Events) will be sufficient.

AcKNoWleDGmeNTs
It is our pleasure to acknowledge the prepublication reviewers of this text. All of their
insights and comments have been very valuable to us. Reviewers of this text include:

Jorge Baca, Cosumnes River College


Wayne Barber, Chemeketa Community College
Molly Beauchman, Yavapai College
Nick Belloit, Florida State College at Jacksonville
Kimberly Benien, Wharton County Junior College
Abraham Biggs, Broward Community College
Dexter Cahoy, Louisiana Tech University
Maggy Carney, Burlington County College
Christopher Donnelly, Macomb Community College
Meike Niederhausen, University of Portland
Deanna Payton, Northern Oklahoma College in Stillwater

We also would like to acknowledge reviewers of previous editions.

Reza Abbasian, Texas Lutheran University


Paul Ache, Kutztown University
Kathleen Almy, Rock Valley College
Polly Amstutz, University of Nebraska at Kearney
Delores Anderson, Truett-McConnell College
Robert J. Astalos, Feather River College
Lynda L. Ballou, Kansas State University
Mary Benson, Pensacola Junior College
Larry Bernett, Benedictine University
Kiran Bhutani, The Catholic University of America
Kristy E. Bland, Valdosta State University
John Bray, Broward Community College
Bill Burgin, Gaston College
Toni Carroll, Siena Heights University
Pinyuen Chen, Syracuse University
Emmanuel des-Bordes, James A. Rhodes State College
Jennifer M. Dollar, Grand Rapids Community College
Larry E. Dunham, Wor-Wic Community College
Andrew Ellett, Indiana University
Ruby Evans, Keiser University
Mary Fine, Moberly Area Community College
Rebecca Fouguette, Santa Rosa Junior College
Rene Garcia, Miami-Dade Community College
Larry Green, Lake Tahoe Community College
Shari Harris, John Wood Community College
Janice Hector, DeAnza College
Jane Keller, Metropolitan Community College
Raja Khoury, Collin County Community College
Diane Koenig, Rock Valley College
Charles G. Laws, Cleveland State Community College

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
xx PREFACE

Michael R. Lloyd, Henderson State University


Beth Long, Pellissippi State Technical and Community College
Lewis Lum, University of Portland
Darcy P. Mays, Virginia Commonwealth University
Charles C. Okeke, College of Southern Nevada, Las Vegas
Peg Pankowski, Community College of Allegheny County
Ram Polepeddi, Westwood College, Denver North Campus
Azar Raiszadeh, Chattanooga State Technical Community College
Traei Reed, St. Johns River Community College
Michael L. Russo, Suffolk County Community College
Janel Schultz, Saint Mary’s University of Minnesota
Sankara Sethuraman, Augusta State University
Stephen Soltys, West Chester University of Pennsylvania
Ron Spicer, Colorado Technical University
Winson Taam, Oakland University
Jennifer L. Taggart, Rockford College
William Truman, University of North Carolina at Pembroke
Bill White, University of South Carolina Upstate
Jim Wienckowski, State University of New York at Buffalo
Stephen M. Wilkerson, Susquehanna University
Hongkai Zhang, East Central University
Shunpu Zhang, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
Cathy Zucco-Teveloff, Trinity College

We would especially like to thank Roger Lipsett for his careful accuracy review
of this text. We are especially appreciative of the excellent work by the editorial and
production professionals at Cengage Learning. In particular we thank Molly Taylor,
Jay Campbell, Jill Quinn, and Amy Simpson.

Without their creative insight and attention to detail, a project of this quality
and magnitude would not be possible. Finally, we acknowledge the cooperation of
Minitab, Inc., SPSS, Texas Instruments, and Microsoft.

Charles Henry Brase

Corrinne Pellillo Brase

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Another random document with
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"There, you see," as he spoke, he pointed, and we all looked, "at the
sides of this cone are two parallel tubes, which serve a double
purpose. They are the fuel containers, and are also the standards on
which are mounted the fins, or control tail, which apparently keeps
the rocket on its course."
"I see it has asbestos insulation," Henry put in.
"Yes; and a circulating system that beats anything I've ever seen,"
Olinski said. "This creature you rescued from this rocket, practically
sailed to earth in a vacuum, with the air inside trying to get out, while
the oxygen he took out of the air was replenished by tanks. There
they are! See?"
Henry nodded. "It's all perfectly understandable to me," he said, "and
all marvelous, beyond measure."
"I'm afraid it doesn't seem perfectly all right to me, Mr. Olinski," I
interposed. "You and Henry are both acting in great sincerity, but you
are asking us to accept explanations that cannot be verified."
Henry turned to me, and said brusquely: "All facts so far advanced
conflict in no way with the truth."
"But your facts may be wrong," I persisted. "In the first place, it is
perfectly fantastic to even imagine that the Martians are so
scientifically advanced that they could send a rocket like this, safely
and unerringly through space to the earth."
"Fantastic?" Olinski exclaimed, heatedly. "No more so than Colonel
Lindbergh's solo flight across the Atlantic would have appeared to
the world in the time of King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella."
Our discussion was suddenly arrested by a cry of surprise from Pat,
who had been inspecting the rocket, unnoticed by us.
"Oh, look! See what a pretty box I've found!" she exclaimed.
A very few steps brought the four of us to her side. She handed the
box to Henry. It was a small, oblong box of some strange wood,
beautifully made, the lid embellished with the design of a gold star. A
most unusual looking box, which somehow had been overlooked.
There was some trickery about opening it, which Olinski soon
solved.
As it turned out, this was a discovery of first importance. The box
contained a scroll of parchment, which, when unwound, was about
three feet long. The parchment contained tiny tracings, the most
minute writing I've ever seen, and apparently written in purplish ink.
The tracings, or cuneiform writings, or whatever they were, were
wholly unintelligible; to me they resembled myriads of fly-specks.
Unfortunately, Henry and Olinski had forgotten their microscopic
glasses, but they both accepted the scroll and its contents instantly
as the "key of knowledge," mentioned in the Martian radio message,
the deciphering of which, they predicted, would disclose the
complete truth about Mars.
Looking back on that day, with all its strange and exciting
revelations, I cannot help marveling at how really peaceful it was, in
view of what was to come.
McGinity remained as our house guest. Before the afternoon was
over, he had typed and sent off the bulk of his copy by messenger to
the Daily Recorder. Every precaution had been taken by Henry to
prevent any news leaking out about the landing of the Martian
rocket, and the discovery of its strange occupant, so that McGinity
might score another "beat," which was, I thought, mighty decent of
him. On the other hand, he put his foot down firmly on the reporter's
plea to have photographs taken. He felt the popping of photographic
flashlights might unduly excite the creature from Mars, in its present
state of collapse.
McGinity was rather silent about his work, but Olinski nearly drove
me wild. If he went half-dotty on first seeing the rocket, he went
completely dotty when Henry ushered him into the presence of the
horrible thing that had come in it. When he had worn Henry out,
talking, he began following me around, and insisting on discussing
the awful thing, and his various suppositions connected with it. He
would have kept on talking indefinitely, I believe, if Henry, finally, had
not locked him in the library and forced him to settle down to the
laborious task of decoding the Martian code-message contained in
the scroll.
The evening passed with intolerable slowness. After dinner, Pat and
McGinity contrived to meet on the terrace. I watched them from a
window in the entrance hall as well as I could, not that I felt there
was anything wrong about their meeting secretly. When they strolled
in, nonchalantly, about half an hour later, I was pretending to read
the evening newspaper.
By ten o'clock, the castle was quiet and dark, everything locked up
for the night, and we were all settled upstairs; Jane with a novel and
her smelling salts. She had not come down for dinner; one of the
servants reported that she looked like a ghost.
I was very uneasy myself. I had no sooner entered my bedroom
when a queer apprehension seized me. I was shivering all over.
Restlessly, I paced up and down, trying to diagnose my case. The
strange experiences and the excitement of the day had been a little
too much for my nerves, perhaps. No; it wasn't that; something
deeper, something harrowing, possessed me.
No sound came from within the castle. Everything seemed
enveloped in a weird-like silence, the silence that often precedes a
storm. I was unable to set my thoughts in order. The whole affair did
not ring entirely true. What was the meaning of all that had
happened? Surely, some one held the secret.
I tried to think these things out slowly, but try as I would, I couldn't
make my cogitations run along prescribed paths. I kept asking
myself questions. What would the world think of this latest, incredible
revelation? But was it so incredible? Were not scientists agreed that
there are probabilities in interplanetary travel which do not overstep
the boundaries of accepted natural laws? And what about this
frightening creature from Mars, Henry had brought into the castle
and put to bed, across the hall from me? What was it doing? For I
was certain, in my present disturbed state of nerves, that it was up to
something.
Niki, I knew, had been relieved as guard for the night by the two
chauffeurs, George and William, whom Henry had assigned to take
turns in keeping watch at the bedside of this uncouth stranger within
our gates.
The creature interested me more and more as I thought about it; by
midnight, it had become a fearsome obsession. In my temporary
aberration, I imagined it creeping about the castle, in the dark, trying
doors—Pat's door. I wondered if she had taken my advice to have an
extra lock put on her bedroom door.
In my anxiety about her, I finally turned off the lights in my room, and
opened my door just a crack, to satisfy myself that everything was as
quiet and secure as the deep silence denoted.
My room is one of six sleeping rooms on the second floor, which
opens on a broad hall, reached by a short flight of stairs, leading
from the landing in the gallery of the main staircase. Four of these
were now occupied by members of our family. Henry's suite is at the
east end of the hall, and mine at the west end. Between us, with
bright southern exposure, are Jane's and Pat's bedrooms.
Across the hall, with windows fronting on the Sound, are the two
principal guest rooms. The Blue Room, formerly occupied by
McGinity, a nobly proportioned apartment, and the State Apartment,
in which was ensconced the visitor from Mars. These two
apartments are separated by an archway, spanning the landing of
the short stairway from the gallery.
Practically the same arrangement holds on the third floor; that is, the
six sleeping rooms open on a broad hall—rooms almost never used.
But two of them were in use this night—McGinity in one, and Olinski
in another. The servants sleep in a back wing, which is built on a
lower level than the second floor. A rear stairway, rather awkwardly
placed, connects the service wing with the second floor.
When I poked my head out through the crack in my bedroom door,
two things became obvious. One was, that all the lights in the hall
had been turned off; the other, that the door of the bedchamber
across from mine, where the Martian creature had been placed, was
slightly ajar; the room itself seemed to be in complete darkness.
This was enough to startle any one with strong nerves and a normal
heart. With my nerves jumpy, and my heart likely to go back on me
at sufficient provocation, I experienced a strong emotional shock.
Fear clutched me that the terrifying creature had escaped from its
room, probably while its guard slept, and was now roaming about the
castle.
Presently I heard a sound; it came from the far end of the hall, where
Pat's room was. A sound of soft footfalls and of heavy breathing. I
sensed at once that something terrible was going on. My first thought
was to fly upstairs and rouse McGinity; then I decided to meet the
situation single-handed. I was so scared that I was almost entirely
incapable of thought.
The darkness of the hall was broken dimly at the stair landing by the
reflection of light from the lower hall, where a lamp is kept burning all
night. I do not consider myself at all a cowardly character, but when I
saw a huge, black something moving stealthily in the vicinity of Pat's
room, I experienced a shock that left me, for a moment, spineless
and breathless.
I have no clear recollection of what happened immediately after this,
save that the huge, black something I chased along the hall, and
partly down the rear staircase to the servants' wing, turned out to be
Mamie Sparks, our fat Negro laundress. She had done some late
ironing, and had brought up the necessary fripperies for Pat, leaving
the bundle of laundry outside her door.
I was never so glad to see any one as I was to see Mamie. Her jet
black skin had gone a ghastly yellow.
"Lawzee, Mr. Livingston, w'at's de mattah?" she asked, faintly. "Yuh
near scered de life out o' me. Ah t'ought yuh was dat big monkey-
man chasin' me."
I had to explain then what I thought I had seen from my bedroom
door. As it developed later, the chauffeur on watch in the Martian's
bedroom, had purposely turned off the lights, and opened the door
slightly, to get a circulation of air, for which I did not blame him.
Mamie looked very solemn when she spoke, almost weird, as her
great eyes rolled around, and her voice fell to a low whisper.
"Ah nevah did like monkeys, nohow," she said, "an' Ah reckon Ah'se
nevah goin' to git us'd to havin' one round de house."
"Don't think about it, Mamie," I admonished; "and please forgive me
for frightening you so."
"Yessah—yessah," she said, and went down the back stairs.
That is all that happened that night.

XVI
I shall go as little as possible into detail of what occurred on the day
following the landing of the Martian rocket on the water-front, and the
discovery of its terrifying occupant, who had been our guest over-
night. By nine o'clock, the general demoralization of our household
was utter and complete. Several of the servants had handed in their
resignations, declaring they wouldn't sleep in the place another
night, "with that thing in it!" Mamie Sparks, the colored laundress,
had vanished at dawn. Jane had collapsed, which helped further to
upset the household routine.
There was nothing I could do but to face it out. One thing I was
thankful for, the calm and unruffled physiognomy of our new butler,
Schweizer, who had taken Orkins' place, a middle-aged, round-faced
German, who apparently had the proverbial goose's back, upon
which rain has no effect.
In the midst of startling events, Jane's collapse really concerned me
most. In a poor state of nerves myself, I finally induced Pat to
accompany me to Jane's apartment, in an early forenoon gesture to
cheer her up. As she was in bed, I did not make my presence known
at first, choosing to remain in an adjoining room, where I could easily
hear everything that was said between her and Pat.
Pat had no sooner entered the bedroom when Jane showed the
nervous tension under which she was laboring. "I shan't sleep a wink
as long as that thing stays in the castle," she said.
"Oh, nonsense! You are acting perfectly absurd, Aunt Jane," Pat
returned, in a manner light and gay, but even the casual listener
could have noted that Pat herself did not favor the idea of Henry's
harboring this monstrous creature. "Why, this funny man-ape is as
harmless as a poodle dog."
"Doesn't he frighten you?" Jane asked, in an awed whisper.
"Frighten me? I should say not! Why, Uncle Henry took me into its
room this morning, before breakfast, and the creature was as gentle
and affectionate as a kitten. It fascinates me. I'm really growing fond
of it."
"But how is Henry going to manage it?" asked Jane.
"Oh, in several ways," Pat replied. "One is to dress it up in the latest
style, and entertain it as befits a good-will ambassador from another
planet. Niki, you know, is already acting as its valet, and teaching it
good manners. The other, is to leave it 'as is,' and exhibit it before
the leading scientific societies. Now, which do you advise?"
"Oh, stop, Pat!" Jane said, in an annoyed voice. "That's going too far.
I know it's silly of me to be so afraid of the thing, but you're worse to
play with it like that. It's right in Henry's line, though, and he's
welcome to it. But, my dear, please, try and make him give it to some
zoo, where it rightfully belongs, not in one of our best bedrooms.
Anything to relieve us of the creature's unwanted presence."
"But it isn't a creature so much as we thought at first," Pat explained,
sitting on the edge of Jane's bed, and patting her waxy, yellow hand.
"The doctor from the village says it's almost genuinely human, like
ourselves. It chatters now; says things you can't make head or tail of,
in a strange tongue, of course. And—we've given it a name. At least,
Mr. McGinity suggested one, which has met with Uncle Henry's
approval, a name formed by the letters of the radio signal station of
Mars. From now on our guest is a 'him,' and not an 'it,' and we're to
address him as Mr.—" She paused, and then spelled the name—"Z-
Z-y-x."
"Gracious!" Jane exclaimed. "How will you ever pronounce a name
like that?"
"It's pronounced something like—Sykes. Like the name of Bill Sikes,
in Dickens' 'Oliver Twist.'"
"All this doesn't matter," Jane groaned. "I tell you, I won't sleep
another night in the castle with that ugly, hairy thing in it! I'll—I'll pack
up and go—"
"Where could you go?" asked Pat, amusedly.
"I'd go somewhere," Jane declared, desperately.
"But I'm sure things will manage themselves," Pat went on, with a
kindly smile; "and I don't think Uncle Henry will agree to presenting
Mr. Zzyx to a zoo. Neither do I apprehend any trouble at all. But if
trouble arises, we've got some one now who will tackle it when it
comes—Mr. McGinity!"
At this I took my courage in my hands, if only to save Pat from
embarrassment in any further discussion of the reporter. Poking my
head through the half-open door, I said: "And how are you, dear
Jane? Brave as ever I can see."
"Oh, Livingston!" she said. "I hope you and Henry are not being
bothered to death by all these horrid reporters in the house?"
"Oh, no," I replied; "they are all very polite, and nice enough. The
police people are here, too, and a perfect army of cameramen.
Strangers tramping all through the house, and over the grounds—
over your nice rugs and lovely flowers. And the servants are leaving,
one by one. Mamie Sparks stole away at the crack of dawn. Too bad,
really, that we haven't someone, some strong-minded woman, to
take the helm."
Jane remained silent for a moment, in deep reflection, then she sat
up suddenly in bed, and exclaimed, as she thumped her pillow: "I'll
get at these reporters and cameramen and police, and they shan't
bother poor Henry any longer! Tramping over my lovely rugs and
flowers, indeed!" She turned to Pat, and added: "Call Fifi at once, my
dear. I'm getting dressed and coming downstairs."
Everything was comparatively quiet when Jane finally came down,
pale and a little shaken, but now firmly resolved to preserve the
routine and dignity of our house. I said to her: "After all, Jane, it's
none of our business to interfere in Henry's affairs." And to my great
surprise, she agreed; and from that time on, we both joined in all the
fuss and clamor, but with a good deal of misgiving, and not without
some trepidation.
Except for the crowd of curious village and country people
congregated outside the lodge-gate, by noon, the castle had
resumed its normal appearance. It was pretty much of a bedlam,
though, earlier in the day, when the reporters and cameramen from
the city newspapers again besieged us. Henry, at first, with
something of his old inherent distaste for reporters showing itself,
was against admitting them to the premises. "Damn them all!" he
exclaimed to McGinity, in my presence. "If your paper has the story,
why doesn't that suffice for all?"
"It doesn't suffice, as you say, by any means," McGinity replied.
"Every City Editor expects the reporter he assigns to this story, to get
all available information first-hand. The story of the rocket's arrival
has now been published, in the Daily Recorder, thanks to you, sir,
and the public must still be served. The public craves not only news
stories but pictures."
"There you are!" said Henry. "And I'm expected to stand by and let
this mob in, to swarm over my place, from which, for years, I've
succeeded in keeping strangers out." Noticing that McGinity was
smiling, he added: "And I'm not so well pleased either, young man,
over the fact that a number of sketches and photographs were used
in conjunction with your story this morning, when I distinctly told you I
did not wish any pictures taken."
"Oh, come, now, Mr. Royce!" said McGinity. "I'm afraid you're being a
bit unfair. Personally, I didn't break faith. But I can't control my City
Editor. These sketches you speak of were made under his orders,
from my verbal description. He also had photographs taken of the
beach from a plane, marking with an 'x' the spot where the rocket
landed. After all, Mr. Royce, what's a story without a picture?"
"I see," said Henry, smiling rather grimly.
"Another thing," McGinity went on, in a more serious tone. "You're
putting over something very fantastic—almost incredible—on the
public. First, your demonstration of radio communication with Mars,
in Radio Center. And, now, you come along with the story of the
landing of this rocket, predicted in the Martian radio message. This
last incident will be rather hard to explain, especially the discovery of
the rocket's passenger, this black, hairy thing, whose presence in the
rocket was not foretold, or mentioned, in the message from Mars."
He hesitated for a moment, then continued: "Now, nobody is under
suspicion, of course, but you are backing something now that strains
the imagination even more than the interstellar radio contact."
"Tut, tut!" Henry exclaimed. "It's not incredible. There's plenty of
evidence to support my claims."
"All well and good, Mr. Royce," McGinity said, rather pompously. "So
what's the use of any more secrecy? You've started something, and
you've got to go through with it. You must admit these reporters and
let them make a thorough examination of everything. The
cameramen must be permitted to take all the pictures they want,
especially of the man-beast from Mars, amid all the luxuries with
which you have surrounded him."
Henry agreed to this, but much against his will, as I could tell by his
voice. "All right," he said. "Turn 'em loose!"
The gate was opened, and the newsgatherers and photographers
streamed in. There was nothing on the premises that escaped their
notice. Breaking in on the silence of the castle, they peered into the
big vault-like rooms, stared at the old tapestries and paintings, and
the grand staircase. It gave me quite a start when I overheard one
reporter remark to another: "Gee, fellow! This is as great a spot for a
nice, quiet murder as ever I saw! Who'd ever hear anything from the
road outside?"
Two hours passed in statement and explanation, question and
answer. The incredible thing had happened, and we were just as
much in the dark as the reporters. Everything was still mysterious
and secret. I had been dreading that they might accuse Henry of
faking. But they all appeared to be deeply impressed, and very
grateful to Henry for his openness and going to all this trouble.
By the time the press had departed en masse, we were beginning to
feel the force of the curiosity aroused in the outer world by
McGinity's exclusive story. Our telephone bell trilled constantly; there
were transatlantic calls from the leading London and Paris papers;
messenger boys bearing telegrams and radiograms kept up an
almost ceaseless procession between the castle and the village.
Various old friends from neighboring country estates dropped in.
This caused great trouble to all of us, but we were not so uneasy as
we had been the day previous, as we now had a police guard. Lunch
was just over when a group of scientists swooped down on Henry.
Olinski had returned to the city. The visiting group included
representatives from the North American Museum of Natural History,
the New York City Historical Society, the New York Museum of
Science, and the Exploration Club. Among these unexpected visitors
was an agent from the Bronx Zoo, who declared at once that Mr.
Zzyx was a species of giant chimpanzee, and, in the same breath,
admitted he might be mistaken. Finally, he said he didn't know what
"the damned thing" was.
After crowding around and inspecting the rocket, which had been
transferred from the beach to our terrace, for exhibition purposes,
the scientists passed upstairs to study Mr. Zzyx, who happened to be
on his best behavior. They could hardly believe their eyes; they were
awed as never before in their lives.
When I stepped into the bedroom, they were gathered about Mr.
Zzyx's bed, while Henry, in a businesslike manner, expressed his
views.
"I am here to say to you, gentlemen," he began, "that to the best of
my knowledge and belief, that radio message last Tuesday night,
and now this rocket, and its strange passenger, originated on Mars.
And it is not so incredible as we might think. We have reached a
period in the earth's history and the evolution of man when we must
expect new revelations.
"We are all deeply concerned in creature evolution as a purposeful,
magnanimous demonstration of the Omnipotence of God. Man's
nearest relatives are the chimpanzee and the gorilla. Brutes and
humans belong to one great family by common descent. Only by
strong imagination can we picture to ourselves men of the
Neanderthal race, who lived on earth at least 100,000 years ago.
Except for the imperishable records on the walls of caves in France,
have we any clear conception of the artistic race of Cro-Magnons,
who inhabited France and Spain, in a subarctic climate, 30,000
years ago; and they had powers, equal, if not superior, to our own.
"Now, there, gentlemen," he continued, pointing to the blinking Mr.
Zzyx, "we have before us a sample of the evolution of man that is
still taking place on Mars. As we all know, evolution is a law of
Nature as universal in living things as is the law of gravitation in
material things and in the motions of the heavenly spheres.
"This creature, however, is the same handiwork as ourselves. In
many respects, as you will observe by his countenance, the human
aspect has been attained. He comes from a planet where conditions
of life appear to be somewhat similar to our own; where there are
white men with a highly developed intellect, and black, hairy men of
a low order of intelligence.
"Gaze, now, at Mr. Zzyx, for that is the name we have given him.
Notice his arms and hands, which are first in importance on the
operative side of the activities of the human organism. See how he
picks up and handles that picture book. He even turns its pages by
licking his thumb; and a well-defined thumb it is. Now, he stares at
the pictures.
"Now, gentlemen, observe more closely as Niki hands him that
empty drinking glass. Mr. Zzyx knows it is empty, therefore he
shakes his head. Niki fills it with water. Ah, he shakes his head
again! Now, watch! Niki has emptied the glass, and again he offers it,
half-filled with champagne. See! He knows the difference at once.
He nods his head. That grimace is a smile. He takes the glass in his
hands, tips it, and, lo and behold, he gulps it all down. Good
champagne, that, gentlemen!
"And, now, you have seen in Mr. Zzyx a co-ordination of hands and
brains. Brain is of first importance, as you know, on the directive side
of the activities of the human organism. And what you have seen,
altogether, I believe, proves conclusively that life originated on Mars,
and is still in course of evolution, on the same principles as on
earth."
Following his somewhat lengthy discourse, Henry was subjected to a
severe grilling by his fellow scientists, under which he grew defiant.
Finally, he exclaimed: "See here, I'm not trying to put something over
on you, my learned fellows! This is all as mysterious to me as it is to
you."
The scientists left about four o'clock, wagging their heads, and
unanimously agreeing that the whole thing had them fooled. Half an
hour after they had gone, a familiar figure projected itself into the
scene.
Prince Matani had a habit of calling around tea-time. He had
abandoned all pretensions to being other than he was, a hard-boiled
sceptic of everything that had transpired in relation to the planet
Mars. Jane, Pat and I were gathered around the tea table, on the
shady side of the terrace, when he appeared.
"Good afternoon, everybody," he greeted us jovially, and then he
dropped his light manner, and put a copy of that morning's Daily
Recorder in Pat's hand.
"I suppose you've read that awful stuff?" he said.
"Yes," Pat replied; "and it's all true."
The Prince shrugged. "What are the police doing here?" he asked.
"On guard," I informed him.
"On guard—for what, pray? Surely you're not frightened of a little
baboon that came wrapped up in that toy sky-rocket?"
"We're all pretty shaky," said Pat.
"In that case, I shall invite myself to spend the night here, and go on
guard. I want to be sure you're safe." He leaned over Pat, his face
diffused with amorous longing.
Pat tweaked his ear. Her attitude towards him, while not exactly
affectionate, was always chummy. "I hope you won't mind doubling
up on the guard business," she said.
"Who is it?"
"McGinity, the reporter," I replied quickly. "One could hardly call him
a guard, though, he's our house guest. He's now preparing his story
for tomorrow morning's paper, with the assistance of Henry and the
village doctor. If you have any doubts about it, just glance into the
library."
"More rot!" said the Prince, ignoring my suggestion. "More gush
about something that isn't true. And I know."
"You think you know," put in Jane, handing a cup of tea to Schweizer,
to pass to the Prince.
"Now, just what do you mean by that, Miss Royce?" the Prince
asked.
"You can't make a fair guess at something you haven't seen," she
replied. "We've seen with our own eyes, and we're convinced that
this little baboon, as you call it, is a visitor from Mars."
"I don't and can't believe any such nonsense," the Prince returned,
with emphasis on the "can't."
"Meaning that you're afraid to go upstairs and see for yourself," said
Jane, a bit snappily.
"He won't do you any harm," I broke in.
"Maybe, I'm only nervous, but—please don't risk going upstairs,
alone," Pat joined in, suppressing a smile.
"What sort of a conspiracy is this?" The Prince glanced from Pat to
me, and then to Jane. "Why on earth should I be afraid of a little
baboon, that's probably escaped from some zoo or circus? You're
not like yourselves at all. You're all three frightened by this yellow
reporter's stories, and you really don't know what you're saying. A
visitor from Mars?" He laughed out loud. "All piffle!" he continued.
"And I'll soon find out for myself, and prove to you it is piffle."
He strode off, rather unceremoniously, and apparently in high
dudgeon. About ten minutes after he had gone, I was gazing fixedly
through the window into the entrance hall, when Niki suddenly
appeared and beckoned excitedly through the window for me to
come inside.
I went in to him. "What's wrong, Niki?" I asked.
He blinked at me, and stuttered a moment before he could find his
voice. "Sorry to disturb you, sir," he said, in a low, shaky tone, "but
something has happened to His Highness. Better come up, in a
hurry. Queeck, sir."
I stood uncertain for a moment, and happening to glance toward the
window, I saw Pat was watching us. I signaled to her, as best I could,
to come inside without alarming Jane. Once she was in, I told her
what Niki had just reported, and instructed her to go quickly to the
library and notify Henry.
I hurried upstairs then to the State Apartment, with Niki at my heels,
wondering what could have happened to the Prince. The bedroom
door was slightly ajar; I pushed it open and walked in. Crouching on
the edge of the big double bed, amid disordered sheets and pillows,
was that enormous creature from Mars, glowering at the Prince, who
was stretched out on the floor beside the bed.
I tried to rouse the Prince, but he made no response, remaining stiff
and rigid. His eyes were wide open and staring; on his face was
fixed a look of utter terror.
Then I recalled what Olinski had told me about his suffering from his
family's hereditary affliction. Some shock, or unusual excitement,
and—pouf!—he was out. But I said nothing of this at that time.
According to the doctor, who accompanied Henry to the apartment,
he had collapsed from shock and fright. But the doctor had only time
for a preliminary examination on account of the frenzied actions of
the creature in the bed. It took the combined strength of Henry and
Niki to hold him while the doctor administered a hypodermic. Soon
he was in the lethargy of a dose of morphia.
By that time, I had summoned the two chauffeurs, who carried the
unconscious Prince to the Blue Room, and put him to bed. We were
all hoping that he would awaken soon, so he could tell us what had
occurred, but we were disappointed. He remained in a strange
stupor, and the chauffeurs took turns sitting up with him that night.
Niki had no explanation to offer except that he had gone into the
adjoining room for a few minutes, closing the door behind him very
softly so as not to arouse the sleeping guest. He had not heard the
Prince enter the bedroom, and his first intimation that any one was
there came with a piercing, blood-curdling cry, and then a heavy thud
on the floor. He had rushed back into the bedroom to find just what I
had found when first entering the bedroom.
Hearing this, I was entirely convinced that some horror had closed
down on Prince Matani after he had entered the bedroom. I pictured
him, taking in the whole scene at a glance, the monstrous creature in
the bed, where he had expected to find a small chimpanzee, or
baboon, and becoming, as it were, petrified with horror. And there
must have been some reason for the sudden murderous fury of our
Martian patient. Whatever it was, I felt the Prince was lucky to have
saved his neck.
Taking it all in all, I was puzzled. The incident disturbed all of us. Pat
looked anxious and tired at dinner, and went to her apartment very
early in the evening.
Luckily, the presence of the police guard in the castle grounds had
relieved my apprehensions; even at that, I was unable to sleep.
Several times during the night, I got up and went to the Prince's
room, to inquire about his condition. On my last call, about four in the
morning, George, the chauffeur, informed me that the Prince
appeared to be sleeping naturally, so I urged him to get a little sleep
himself.
With some sense of relief, I finally went to sleep myself. Imagine my
surprise, on awakening a few hours later, to find that the Prince had
gone. Niki, an early riser, reported to me that he had seen the Prince
steal quietly from his bedroom before any one else was up, and go
downstairs. It appeared likely that he had telephoned from his room
to the village for a taxi-cab, without arousing George, for he drove
away a few minutes after coming downstairs. He acted like a crazy
man, Niki said.

XVII
Never before had I realized what it meant to be in the public eye. Our
family privacy, held virtually sacred, was no longer so. We really had
less privacy at the castle during the days and weeks following the
discovery of the rocket from Mars on the beach than the hippopotami
at the Central Park Zoo. It was not unusual for me to find scientists,
explorers, college professors, high school teachers and reporters,
wandering in groups about the place, as though it were some
museum, and staring at me as if I were a recently acquired Egyptian
mummy at the Metropolitan Museum of Art.
And never before had I believed it possible to make a man out of a
monkey, a gentleman out of a chimpanzee, no more than one can
make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. But that is precisely what had
happened.
It was now the first of November, and plenty out of the ordinary had
been happening. And everything that did occur had failed to arouse
either surprise or wonder in me. I had become so satiated with
unusual, stirring, hair-raising occurrences that I had begun to wear a
hard-boiled look on my face, like a hardened criminal, fed up with
cracking safes, kidnapping rich children for ransom, and bumping
people off; and this cultivated look of mine really expressed more
than anything else my patient acceptance of the fact that one never
knows what is going to happen next in this world.
The only strange note at the castle around November first was Mr.
Zzyx, our guest from Mars, a village policeman on guard in front of it,
and a cameraman lurking somewhere about, waiting to get a picture
of the man-ape, should he go out on the terrace with Niki for a stroll,
or drive off with Henry, to keep a dinner engagement.
We—that is, Jane, Pat and I—no longer exhibited any outward signs
of objecting to Mr. Zzyx's presence in the castle. What was the use?
Henry was master, and what he decreed was law. Confidence, to
some degree, had been restored in our domestic affairs. The
servants, who had been scared off from fright, had returned to their
old jobs; even Mamie Sparks, our colored laundress, had come
back. I burst into a roar of laughter one day when, coming into the
servants' quarters, and remembering Mamie's strange experience
with me on the first night we had harbored Mr. Zzyx, I found her
carefully, and proudly, ironing his enormous shirts and underthings,
which seemed more suitably fitted for a baby elephant.
My mind reverts to that early morning when Prince Matani left us so
suddenly after his mysterious and unfortunate encounter with our
guest from Mars. Perhaps I am oversuspicious as I look back, but it
did not ring true, that story of the Prince's as he had told it to me on
the telephone on the day following his departure.
The condition in which we had found him in Mr. Zzyx's bedroom was
not caused by shock or fright, he said; he had been suffering of late
from dizzy spells, and had simply fainted. I don't suppose we'll ever
know the truth about it. At any rate, the incident had given him a
good excuse to spend a month or so in California for his health, from
which I gathered that he was hell bent for Hollywood and a film
career. After he had gone, Pat saw a great deal more of McGinity, I
noticed, without Henry suspecting it.
Apart from McGinity's valuable services in directing Henry's publicity,
and keeping the public's interest keyed up to the highest pitch by his
daily newspaper articles, I believe he had as much to do as Henry in
the transformation that took place in our Martian visitor.
It is important to say here that at the beginning the public had
accepted all these strange revelations from outer space without
suspicion, and Henry had won the confidence of the people by
stating that he was just as much puzzled about the different
occurrences as they were.
But however things happened, three things were sure—facts. First,
every one, practically the world over, had listened in to the
deciphering of the mysterious dots and dashes on their radios, in the
globe-encircling hook-up, that fateful Tuesday night; and this
message was generally accepted as coming from Mars, which was
then at its closest point to the earth in a hundred years.
Then the rocket, most curiously constructed, had reached the earth
in a shower of meteors, which may or may not have been a part of
the cosmic bodies which the radio message from Mars had reported
as streaming over the planet, a fortnight before the projectile landed
here. Lastly, a strange man-beast, totally unlike any living creature
on the earth, and strongly resembling the Cro-Magnons, cavemen of
30,000 years ago, had been discovered in the rocket.
The creature in the rocket, Henry always contended, was incidental,
but the reason for the rocket was vital. It was vital, he argued,
because it carried a history, in code, of Mars and its inhabitants. This
code, Olinski was still laboring over, day and night; and he had
reported it was as cunning and mysterious a piece of work as he had
ever seen. But the end was in sight. Any day now, and Henry could
spring the glad tidings that the riddle of Mars had been solved. And
in this new knowledge of life and conditions on the planet, he saw a
means to dam the curious wave of doubt and suspicion regarding his
claims that was threatening to engulf him and his theories.
What did matter, and it was almost fatal in that it gave impetus to this
slowly rising tide of mistrust, was that no further radio messages
from Mars had been received, following that Tuesday night
demonstration. Both Henry and Olinski had made frantic efforts to re-
contact the planet, but without result; and every known method to get
understandable messages through to Mars was tried. The powerful
radio stations of both the Army and Navy had stood by every night,
for weeks, to listen in for possible signals from the planet, without
success.
All this did not mean necessarily that people were losing interest. As
a matter of fact, Henry didn't care what anybody thought. Even if no
further messages came from Mars, he still had Mr. Zzyx, who was
now living a very active and interesting life. He went out with Henry
to clubs, to golf, to the homes of the very rich, and excellent dinners.
And wherever he went, the police emergency squads had to be
called out to handle the crowds.
The rocket was now reposing in a sealed glass case in the main
lobby of the New York Museum of Science. Already it had been
viewed by five million people, and they were still coming. Every day,
from early morning until closing time, there was a queue of two
abreast of those still eager to see the strange projectile that had
hurtled through space.
Henry and McGinity gave Jane and me the surprise of our lives the
first night they brought Mr. Zzyx downstairs for dinner. The
transformation they had wrought in the creature was so utterly
incredible that I burst out laughing. Equipped with an ample
wardrobe, fashioned by the smartest Fifth Avenue tailors, Mr. Zzyx,
through Henry's generosity, was now prepared to shine in the most
brilliant and fashionable circles. And yet, even in modern dress,
there was still something sinister and ominous about this huge, hairy
beast that fairly appalled me.
At my instigation, both Jane and Pat had put extra bolts and locks on
their bedroom doors. As for getting into my sleeping apartment, it
would have been much easier to get into the safe deposit vaults of
the National City Bank. Henry called such precautions "senseless
absurdity." Probably such provision against danger was
unnecessary, but Pat had had an adventure, shortly after Prince
Matani's frightening experience, that had caused the three of us to
play safe.
It was easy to understand why Mr. Zzyx took such a fancy to Pat.
During his convalescence, she had tried to teach him the alphabet
by means of a primer; had shown him picture books, and built
houses out of vari-colored blocks, entertaining and amusing him in
various ways.

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