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Introduction to Probability
Models

TWELFTH EDITION

Sheldon M. Ross
University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States of
America
Table of Contents

Cover image

Title page

Copyright

Preface

New to This Edition

Course

Examples and Exercises

Organization

Acknowledgments

1: Introduction to Probability Theory

Abstract

1.1. Introduction

1.2. Sample Space and Events

1.3. Probabilities Defined on Events

1.4. Conditional Probabilities

1.5. Independent Events

 1.6. Bayes' Formula

1.7. Probability Is a Continuous Event Function

Exercises

References

2: Random Variables

Abstract

2.1. Random Variables

2.2. Discrete Random Variables

2.3. Continuous Random Variables

2.4. Expectation of a Random Variable

2.5. Jointly Distributed Random Variables

2.6. Moment Generating Functions

2.7. Limit Theorems

2.8. Proof of the Strong Law of Large Numbers

2.9. Stochastic Processes

Exercises

References

3: Conditional Probability and Conditional Expectation

Abstract

3.1. Introduction
 3.2. The Discrete Case

3.3. The Continuous Case

3.4. Computing Expectations by Conditioning

3.5. Computing Probabilities by Conditioning

3.6. Some Applications

3.7. An Identity for Compound Random Variables

Exercises

4: Markov Chains

Abstract

4.1. Introduction

4.2. Chapman–Kolmogorov Equations

4.3. Classification of States

4.4. Long-Run Proportions and Limiting Probabilities

4.5. Some Applications

4.6. Mean Time Spent in Transient States

4.7. Branching Processes

4.8. Time Reversible Markov Chains

4.9. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

4.10. Markov Decision Processes

4.11. Hidden Markov Chains

Exercises
 References

5: The Exponential Distribution and the Poisson Process

Abstract

5.1. Introduction

5.2. The Exponential Distribution

5.3. The Poisson Process

5.4. Generalizations of the Poisson Process

5.5. Random Intensity Functions and Hawkes Processes

Exercises

References

6: Continuous-Time Markov Chains

Abstract

6.1. Introduction

6.2. Continuous-Time Markov Chains

6.3. Birth and Death Processes

6.4. The Transition Probability Function Pij(t)

6.5. Limiting Probabilities

6.6. Time Reversibility

6.7. The Reversed Chain

6.8. Uniformization
 6.9. Computing the Transition Probabilities

Exercises

References

7: Renewal Theory and Its Applications

Abstract

7.1. Introduction

7.2. Distribution of N(t)

7.3. Limit Theorems and Their Applications

7.4. Renewal Reward Processes

7.5. Regenerative Processes

7.6. Semi-Markov Processes

7.7. The Inspection Paradox

7.8. Computing the Renewal Function

7.9. Applications to Patterns

7.10. The Insurance Ruin Problem

Exercises

References

8: Queueing Theory

Abstract

8.1. Introduction
 8.2. Preliminaries

8.3. Exponential Models

8.4. Network of Queues

8.5. The System M/G/1

8.6. Variations on the M/G/1

8.7. The Model G/M/1

8.8. A Finite Source Model

8.9. Multiserver Queues

Exercises

9: Reliability Theory

Abstract

9.1. Introduction

9.2. Structure Functions

9.3. Reliability of Systems of Independent Components

9.4. Bounds on the Reliability Function

9.5. System Life as a Function of Component Lives

9.6. Expected System Lifetime

9.7. Systems with Repair

Exercises

References
10: Brownian Motion and Stationary Processes

Abstract

10.1. Brownian Motion

10.2. Hitting Times, Maximum Variable, and the Gambler's

Ruin Problem

10.3. Variations on Brownian Motion

10.4. Pricing Stock Options

10.5. The Maximum of Brownian Motion with Drift

10.6. White Noise

10.7. Gaussian Processes

10.8. Stationary and Weakly Stationary Processes

10.9. Harmonic Analysis of Weakly Stationary Processes

Exercises

References

11: Simulation

Abstract

11.1. Introduction

11.2. General Techniques for Simulating Continuous Random

Variables

11.3. Special Techniques for Simulating Continuous Random

Variables

11.4. Simulating from Discrete Distributions

 11.5. Stochastic Processes

11.6. Variance Reduction Techniques

11.7. Determining the Number of Runs

11.8. Generating from the Stationary Distribution of a Markov

Chain

Exercises

References

12: Coupling

Abstract

12.1. A Brief Introduction

12.2. Coupling and Stochastic Order Relations

12.3. Stochastic Ordering of Stochastic Processes

12.4. Maximum Couplings, Total Variation Distance, and the

Coupling Identity

12.5. Applications of the Coupling Identity

12.6. Coupling and Stochastic Optimization

12.7. Chen–Stein Poisson Approximation Bounds

Exercises

Solutions to Starred Exercises

Chapter 1

Chapter 2
 Chapter 3

Chapter 4

Chapter 5

Chapter 6

Chapter 7

Chapter 8

Chapter 9

Chapter 10

Chapter 11

Index
Copyright
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Notices
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Preface
This text is intended as an introduction to elementary
probability theory and stochastic processes. It is particularly well
suited for those wanting to see how probability theory can be
applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as engineering,
computer science, management science, the physical and social
sciences, and operations research.
It is generally felt that there are two approaches to the study of
probability theory. One approach is heuristic and nonrigorous
and attempts to develop in the student an intuitive feel for the
subject that enables him or her to “think probabilistically.” The
other approach attempts a rigorous development of probability by
using the tools of measure theory. It is the first approach that is
employed in this text. However, because it is extremely important
in both understanding and applying probability theory to be able
to “think probabilistically,” this text should also be useful to
students interested primarily in the second approach.
New to This Edition
The twelfth edition includes new text material, examples, and
exercises in almost every chapter. Newly added Sections begin in
Chapter 1 with Section 1.7, where it is shown that probability is a
continuous function of events. The new Section 2.8 proves the
Borel–Cantelli lemma and uses it as the basis of a proof of the
strong law of large numbers. Subsection 5.2.5 introduces the
Dirichlet distribution and details its relationship to exponential
random variables. Notable also in Chapter 5 is a new approach for
obtaining results for both stationary and non-stationary Poisson
processes. The biggest change in the current edition, though, is the
addition of Chapter 12 on coupling methods. Its usefulness in
analyzing stochastic systems is indicated throughout this chapter.
Course
Ideally, this text would be used in a one-year course in probability
models. Other possible courses would be a one-semester course in
introductory probability theory (involving Chapters 1–3 and parts
of others) or a course in elementary stochastic processes. The
textbook is designed to be flexible enough to be used in a variety
of possible courses. For example, I have used Chapters 5 and 8,
with smatterings from Chapters 4 and 6, as the basis of an
introductory course in queueing theory.
Examples and Exercises
Many examples are worked out throughout the text, and there are
also a large number of exercises to be solved by students. More
than 100 of these exercises have been starred and their solutions
provided at the end of the text. These starred problems can be
used for independent study and test preparation. An Instructor's
Manual, containing solutions to all exercises, is available free to
instructors who adopt the book for class.
Organization
Chapters 1 and 2 deal with basic ideas of probability theory. In
Chapter 1 an axiomatic framework is presented, while in Chapter
2 the important concept of a random variable is introduced.
Section 2.6.1 gives a simple derivation of the joint distribution of
the sample mean and sample variance of a normal data sample.
Section 2.8 gives a proof of the strong law of large numbers, with
the proof assuming that both the expected value and variance of
the random variables under consideration are finite.
Chapter 3 is concerned with the subject matter of conditional
probability and conditional expectation. “Conditioning” is one of
the key tools of probability theory, and it is stressed throughout
the book. When properly used, conditioning often enables us to
easily solve problems that at first glance seem quite difficult. The
final section of this chapter presents applications to (1) a computer
list problem, (2) a random graph, and (3) the Polya urn model and
its relation to the Bose–Einstein distribution. Section 3.6.5 presents
k-record values and the surprising Ignatov's theorem.
In Chapter 4 we come into contact with our first random, or
stochastic, process, known as a Markov chain, which is widely
applicable to the study of many real-world phenomena.
Applications to genetics and production processes are presented.
The concept of time reversibility is introduced and its usefulness
illustrated. Section 4.5.3 presents an analysis, based on random
walk theory, of a probabilistic algorithm for the satisfiability
problem. Section 4.6 deals with the mean times spent in transient
states by a Markov chain. Section 4.9 introduces Markov chain
Monte Carlo methods. In the final section we consider a model for
optimally making decisions known as a Markovian decision
process.
In Chapter 5 we are concerned with a type of stochastic process
known as a counting process. In particular, we study a kind of
counting process known as a Poisson process. The intimate
relationship between this process and the exponential distribution
is discussed. New derivations for the Poisson and
nonhomogeneous Poisson processes are discussed. Examples
relating to analyzing greedy algorithms, minimizing highway
encounters, collecting coupons, and tracking the AIDS virus, as
well as
material on compound Poisson processes, are included in this
chapter. Section 5.2.4 gives a simple derivation of the convolution
of exponential random variables.
Chapter 6 considers Markov chains in continuous time with an
emphasis on birth and death models. Time reversibility is shown
to be a useful concept, as it is in the study of discrete-time Markov
chains. Section 6.8 presents the computationally important
technique of uniformization.
Chapter 7, the renewal theory chapter, is concerned with a type
of counting process more general than the Poisson. By making use
of renewal reward processes, limiting results are obtained and
applied to various fields. Section 7.9 presents new results
concerning the distribution of time until a certain pattern occurs
when a sequence of independent and identically distributed
random variables is observed. In Section 7.9.1, we show how
renewal theory can be used to derive both the mean and the
variance of the length of time until a specified pattern appears, as
well as the mean time until one of a finite number of specified
patterns appears. In Section 7.9.2, we suppose that the random
variables are equally likely to take on any of m possible values,
and compute an expression for the mean time until a run of m
distinct values occurs. In Section 7.9.3, we suppose the random
variables are continuous and derive an expression for the mean
time until a run of m consecutive increasing values occurs.
Chapter 8 deals with queueing, or waiting line, theory. After
some preliminaries dealing with basic cost identities and types of
limiting probabilities, we consider exponential queueing models
and show how such models can be analyzed. Included in the
models we study is the important class known as a network of
queues. We then study models in which some of the distributions
are allowed to be arbitrary. Included are Section 8.6.3 dealing with
an optimization problem concerning a single server, general
service time queue, and Section 8.8, concerned with a single
server, general service time queue in which the arrival source is a
finite number of potential users.
Chapter 9 is concerned with reliability theory. This chapter will
probably be of greatest interest to the engineer and operations
researcher. Section 9.6.1 illustrates a method for determining an
upper bound for the expected life of a parallel system of not
necessarily independent components and Section 9.7.1 analyzes a
series structure reliability model in which components enter a
state of suspended animation when one of their cohorts fails.
Chapter 10 is concerned with Brownian motion and its
applications. The theory of options pricing is discussed. Also, the
arbitrage theorem is presented and its relationship to the duality
theorem of linear programming is indicated. We show how the
arbitrage theorem leads to the Black–Scholes option pricing
formula.
Chapter 11 deals with simulation, a powerful tool for analyzing
stochastic models that are analytically intractable. Methods for
generating the values of arbitrarily distributed random variables
are discussed, as are variance reduction methods for increasing
the efficiency of the simulation. Section 11.6.4 introduces the
valuable simulation technique of importance sampling, and
indicates the usefulness of tilted distributions when applying this
method.
Chapter 12 introduces the concept of coupling and shows how
it can be effectively employed in analyzing stochastic systems. Its
use in showing stochastic order relations between random
variables and processes—such as showing that a birth and death
process is stochastically increasing in its initial state—is
illustrated. It is also shown how coupling can be of use in
bounding the distance between distributions, in obtaining
stochastic optimization results, in bounding the error of Poisson
approximations, and in other areas of applied probability.
Acknowledgments
We would like to acknowledge with thanks the helpful
suggestions made by the many reviewers of the text. These
comments have been essential in our attempt to continue to
improve the book and we owe these reviewers, and others who
wish to remain anonymous, many thanks:
Mark Brown, City University of New York
Yang Cao, University of Southern California
Zhiqin Ginny Chen, University of Southern California
Tapas Das, University of South Florida
Israel David, Ben-Gurion University
Jay Devore, California Polytechnic Institute
Eugene Feinberg, State University of New York, Stony Brook
Rodrigo Gaitan, University of California, Riverside
Ramesh Gupta, University of Maine
Babak Haji, Sharif University
Marianne Huebner, Michigan State University
Garth Isaak, Lehigh University
Jonathan Kane, University of Wisconsin Whitewater
Amarjot Kaur, Pennsylvania State University
Zohel Khalil, Concordia University
Eric Kolaczyk, Boston University
Melvin Lax, California State University, Long Beach
Jean Lemaire, University of Pennsylvania
Xianxu Li
Andrew Lim, University of California, Berkeley
George Michailidis, University of Michigan
Donald Minassian, Butler University
Joseph Mitchell, State University of New York, Stony Brook
Krzysztof Osfaszewski, University of Illinois
Erol Pekoz, Boston University
Evgeny Poletsky, Syracuse University
James Propp, University of Massachusetts, Lowell
Anthony Quas, University of Victoria
Charles H. Roumeliotis, Proofreader
Another random document with
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struck Leslie in the face, in the presence of many witnesses. Leslie
appealed to the court, on the strength of an old statute which decreed
death to any one guilty of violence in the presence of the Lords, and
Comrie was apprehended. There then arose many curious and
perplexing questions among the judges as to the various bearings of
the case; but all were suddenly solved by Comrie obtaining a
remission of his offence from the queen.[339]

In this year was published[340] the first intelligent topographical

book regarding Scotland, being ‘A Description of the Western Isles,
by M. Martin, Gentleman.’ It gives accurate information regarding
the physical peculiarities of these islands, and their numberless relics
of antiquity, besides many sensible hints as to means for improving
the industry of the inhabitants. The author, who seems to have been
a native of Skye, writes like a well-educated man for his age, and as
one who had seen something of life in “busier scenes than those
supplied by his own country. He has also thought proper to give an
ample account of many superstitious practices of the Hebrideans,
and to devote a chapter to the alleged power of second-sight, which
was then commonly attributed to special individuals throughout the
whole of Celtic Scotland. All this he does in the same sober
painstaking manner in which he tells of matters connected with the
rural economy of the people, fully shewing 1703.
that he himself reposed entire faith in the
alleged phenomena. In the whole article, indeed, he scarcely
introduces a single expression of a dogmatic character, either in the
way of defending the belief or ridiculing it, but he very calmly
furnishes answers, based on what he considered as facts, to sundry
objections which had been taken against it. But for his book, we
should have been much in the dark regarding a system which
certainly made a great mark on the Highland mind in the
seventeenth century, and was altogether as remarkable, perhaps, as
the witch superstitions of the Lowlands during the same period.
He tells us—‘The second-sight is a singular faculty of seeing an
otherwise invisible object, without any previous means used by the
person that sees it, for that end. The vision makes such a lively
impression upon the seers, that they neither see nor think of
anything else, except the vision, as long as it continues, and then they
appear pensive or jovial, according to the object which was
represented to them.
‘At the sight of a vision, the eyelids of the person are erected, and
the eyes continue staring until the object vanish. This is obvious to
others who are by, when the persons happen to see a vision, and
occurred more than once to my own observation, and to others who
were with me.’
The seers were persons of both sexes and of all ages, ‘generally
illiterate, well-meaning people;’ not people who desired to make gain
by their supposed faculty, or to attract notice to themselves—not
drunkards or fools—but simple country people, who were rather
more apt to feel uneasy in the possession of a gift so strange, than to
use it for any selfish or unworthy purpose. It really appears to have
been generally regarded as an uncomfortable peculiarity; and there
were many instances of the seers resorting to prayers and other
religious observances in order to get quit of it.
The vision came upon the seer unpremonishedly, and in all
imaginable circumstances. If early in the morning, which was not
frequent, then the prediction was expected to be accomplished
within a few hours; the later in the day, the accomplishment was
expected at the greater distance of time. The things seen were often
of an indifferent nature, as the arrival of a stranger; often of a
character no less important than the death of individuals. If a woman
was seen standing at a man’s left hand, it was a presage that she
would be his wife, even though one of the parties might then be the
mate of another. Sometimes several women would be seen standing
in a row beside a man, in which case it was expected that the one
nearest would be his first wife, and so on 1703.
with the rest in their turns.
When the arrival of a stranger was predicted, his dress, stature,
complexion, and general appearance would be described, although
he might be previously unknown to the seer. If of the seer’s
acquaintance, his name would be told, and the humour he was in
would be described from the countenance he bore. ‘I have been seen
thus myself,’ says Martin, ‘by seers of both sexes at some hundred
miles’ distance; some that saw me in this manner, had never seen me
personally, and it happened according to their visions, without any
previous design of mine to go to those places, my coming there being
purely accidental.’
It will be remembered that, when Dr Johnson and Boswell
travelled through the Hebrides in 1773, the latter was told an
instance of such prediction by the gentleman who was the subject of
the story—namely, M‘Quarrie, the Laird of Ulva. ‘He had gone to
Edinburgh, and taken a man-servant along with him. An old woman
who was in the house said one day: “M‘Quarrie will be at home to-
morrow, and will bring two gentlemen with him;” and she said she
saw his servant return in red and green. He did come home next day.
He had two gentlemen with him, and his servant had a new red and
green livery, which M‘Quarrie had bought for him at Edinburgh,
upon a sudden thought, not having the least intention when he left
home to put his servant in livery; so that the old woman could not
have heard any previous mention of it. This, he assured us, was a
true story.’[341]
Martin tells a story of the same character, but even more striking
in its various features. The seer in this case was Archibald
Macdonald, who lived in the isle of Skye about the time of the
Revolution. One night before supper, at Knockowe, he told the family
he had just then seen the strangest thing he ever saw in his life; to
wit, a man with an ugly long cap, always shaking his head; but the
strangest thing of all was a little harp he had, with only four strings,
and two hart’s horns fixed in the front of it. ‘All that heard this odd
vision fell a laughing at Archibald, telling him that he was dreaming,
or had not his wits about him, since he pretended to see a thing that
had no being, and was not so much as heard of in any part of the
world.’ All this had no effect upon Archibald, ‘who told them that
they must excuse him if he laughed at them after the
accomplishment of the vision.’ Archibald 1703.
returned to his own house, and within three
or four days after, a man exactly answering to the description arrived
at Knockowe. He was a poor man, who made himself a buffoon for
bread, playing on a harp, which was ornamented with a pair of hart’s
horns, and wearing a cap and bells, which he shook in playing. He
was previously unknown at Knockowe, and was found to have been
at the island of Barray, sixty miles off, at the time of the vision. This
story was vouched by Mr Daniel Martin and all his family—relatives,
we may presume, of the author of the book now quoted.
Martin relates a story of a predicted visit of a singular kind to the
island of Egg; and it is an instance more than usually entitled to
notice, as he himself heard of it in the interval between the vision
and its fulfilment. A seer in that island told his neighbours that he
had frequently seen the appearance of a man in a red coat lined with
blue, having on his head a strange kind of blue cap, with a very high
cock on the forepart of it. The figure always appeared in the act of
making rude advances to a young woman who lived in the hamlet,
and he predicted that it would be the fate of this girl to be treated in a
dishonourable way by some such stranger. The inhabitants
considered the affair so extremely unlikely to be realised, that they
treated the seer as a fool. Martin tells that he had the story related to
him in Edinburgh, in September 1688, by Norman Macleod of
Graban, who had just then come from the isle of Skye, there being
present at the time the Laird of Macleod, Mr Alexander Macleod,
advocate, and some other persons. About a year and a half after, a
few government war-vessels were sent into the Western Islands to
reduce some of the people who had been out with Lord Dundee.
Major Fergusson, who commanded a large military party on board,
had no thought of touching at Egg, which is a very sequestered
island, but some natives of that isle, being in Skye, encountered a
party of his men, and one of the latter was slain. He consequently
steered for Egg, to revenge himself on the natives. Among other
outrages, the young woman above alluded to was carried on board
the vessel, and disgracefully treated, thus completely verifying the
vision.
An instance of the second-sight, which fell under the observation
of the clever statesman Viscount Tarbat, is related by Martin as
having been reported to him by Lord Tarbat himself. While travelling
in Ross-shire, his lordship entered a house, and sat down on an arm-
chair. One of his retinue, who possessed the faculty of a seer, spoke
to some of the rest, wishing them to 1703.
persuade his lordship to leave the house,
‘for,’ said he, ‘a great misfortune will attend somebody in it, and that
within a few hours.’ This was told to Lord Tarbat, who did not regard
it. The seer soon after renewed his entreaty with much earnestness,
begging his master to remove out of that unhappy chair; but he was
only snubbed as a fool. Lord Tarbat, at his own pleasure, renewed his
journey, and had not been gone many hours when a trooper, riding
upon ice, fell and broke his thigh, and being brought into that house,
was laid in the arm-chair to have his wound dressed. Thus the vision
was accomplished.
It was considered a rule in second-sight, that a vision seen by one
seer was not necessarily visible to another in his company, unless the
first touched his neighbour. There are, nevertheless, anecdotes of
visions seen by more than one at a time, without any such ceremony.
In one case, two persons, not accustomed to see visions, saw one
together, after which, neither ever enjoyed the privilege again. They
were two simple country men, travelling along a road about two
miles to the north of Snizort church, in Skye. Suddenly they saw what
appeared as a body of men coming from the north, as if bringing a
corpse to Snizort to be buried. They advanced to the river, thinking
to meet the funeral company at the ford, but when they got there, the
visionary scene had vanished. On coming home, they told what they
had seen to their neighbours. ‘About three weeks after, a corpse was
brought along that road from another parish, from which few or
none are brought to Snizort, except persons of distinction.’
A vision of a similar nature is described as occurring to one Daniel
Stewart, an inhabitant of Hole, in the North Parish of St Mary’s, in
the isle of Skye; and it was likewise the man’s only experience of the
kind. One day, at noon, he saw five men riding northward; he ran
down to the road to meet them; but when he got there, all had
vanished. The vision was repeated next day, when he also heard the
men speak. It was concluded that the company he saw was that of Sir
Donald Macdonald of Sleat, who was then at Armadale, forty miles
distant.
The important place which matrimony occupies in social existence,
makes it not surprising that the union of individuals in marriage was
frequently the alleged subject of second-sight. As already mentioned,
when a woman stood at a man’s left hand, she was expected to be his
wife. It was also understood that, when a man was seen at a woman’s
left hand, he was to be her future husband. 1703.
‘Several persons,’ says Martin, ‘living in a
certain family, told me that they had frequently seen two men
standing at a young gentlewoman’s left hand, who was their master’s
daughter. They told the men’s names, and as they were the young
lady’s equals, it was not doubted that she would be married to one of
them, and perhaps to the other, after the death of the first. Some
time after, a third man appeared, and he seemed always to stand
nearest to her of the three; but the seers did not know him, though
they could describe him exactly. Within some months after, this
man, who was last seen, did actually come to the house, and fulfilled
the description given of him by those who never saw him but in a
vision; and he married the woman shortly after. They live in the isle
of Skye; both they and others confirmed the truth of this instance
when I saw them.’
The Rev. Daniel Nicolson, minister of the parish of St Mary’s, in
Skye, was a widower of forty-four, when a noted seer of his flock, the
Archibald Macdonald already spoken of, gave out that he saw a well-
dressed lady frequently standing at the minister’s right hand. He
described her complexion, stature, and dress particularly, and said
he had no doubt such a person would in time become the second Mrs
Nicolson. The minister was rather angry at having this story told, and
bade his people pay no attention to what ‘that foolish dreamer,
Archibald Macdonald,’ had said, ‘for,’ said he, ‘it is twenty to one if
ever I marry again.’ Archibald, nevertheless, persisted in his tale.
While the matter stood in this position, it was related to Martin.
The minister afterwards attended a synod in Bute—met a Mrs
Morison there—fell in love with her, and brought her home to Skye
as his wife. It is affirmed that she was instantly and generally
recognised as answering to the description of the lady in Archibald’s
vision.
About 1652, Captain Alexander Fraser, commonly called the Tutor
of Lovat, being guardian of his nephew, Lord Lovat, married Sybilla
Mackenzie, sister of the Earl of Seaforth, and widow of John Macleod
of Macleod. The Tutor, who had fought gallantly in the preceding
year for King Charles II. at Worcester, was thought a very lucky man
in this match, as the lady had a jointure of three hundred merks per
annum![342] The marriage, however, is more remarkable on account
of its having been seen many years before, 1703.
during the lifetime of the lady’s first
husband. We have the story told with all seriousness, though in very
obscure typography, in a letter which Aubrey prints[343] as having
been sent to him by a ‘learned friend’ of his in the Highlands, about
1694.
Macleod and his wife, while residing, we are to understand, at
their house of Dunvegan in Skye, on returning one day from an
excursion or brief visit, went into their nursery to see their infant
child. To pursue the narration: ‘On their coming in, the nurse falls a-
weeping. They asked the cause, dreading the child was sick, or that
the nurse was scarce of milk. The nurse replied the child was well,
and she had abundance of milk. Yet she still wept. Being pressed to
tell what ailed her, she at last said that Macleod would die, and the
lady would shortly be married to another man. Being asked how she
knew that event, she told them plainly, that, as they came into the
room, she saw a man with a scarlet cloak and white hat betwixt them,
giving the lady a kiss over the shoulder; and this was the cause of her
weeping; all which,’ pursues the narrator, ‘came to pass. After
Macleod’s death [which happened in 1649], the Tutor of Lovat
married the lady in the same dress in which the woman saw him.’
The Bishop of Caithness, a short while before the Revolution, had
five daughters, one of whom spoke grudgingly of the burden of the
family housekeeping lying wholly upon her. A man-servant in the
house, who had the second-sight, told her that ere long she would be
relieved from her task, as he saw a tall gentleman in black walking on
the bishop’s right hand, and whom she was to marry. Before a
quarter of a year had elapsed, the prediction was realised; and all the
man’s vaticinations regarding the marriage-feast and company also
proved true.
A curious class of cases, of importance for any theory on the
subject, was that in which a visionary figure or spectre intervened for
the production of the phenomena. A spirit in great vogue in the
Highlands in old times—as, indeed, in the Lowlands also—was
known by the name of Browny. From the accounts we have of him, it
seems as if he were in a great measure identical with the drudging
goblin of Milton, whose shadowy flail by night would thrash the corn
‘That ten day-labourers could not end.’

Among our Highlanders, he presented himself as a tall man. The

servants of Sir Norman Macleod of Bernera 1703.
were one night assembled in the hall of the castle in that remote
island, while their master was absent on business, without any
intimation having been given of the time of his probable return. One
of the party, who had the second-sight, saw Browny[344] come in
several times and make a show of carrying an old woman from the
fireside to the door; at last, he seemed to take her by neck and heels,
and bundle her out of the house; at which the seer laughed so
heartily, that his companions thought him mad. He told them they
must remove, for the hall would be required that night for other
company. They knew, of course, that he spoke in consequence of
having had a vision; but they took it upon themselves to express a
doubt that it could be so speedily accomplished. In so dark a night,
and the approach to the island being so dangerous on account of the
rocks, it was most unlikely that their master would arrive. In less
than an hour, a man came in to warn them to get the hall ready for
their master, who had just landed. Martin relates this story from Sir
Norman Macleod’s own report.
The same Sir Norman Macleod was one day playing with some of
his friends at a game called the Tables (in Gaelic, palmermore),
which requires three on a side, each throwing the dice by turns. A
critical difficulty arising as to the placing of 1703.
one of the table-men, seeing that the issue
of the game obviously must depend upon it, the gentleman who was
to play hesitated for a considerable time. At length, Sir Norman’s
butler whispered a direction as to the best site for the man into his
ear; he played in obedience to the suggestion, and won the game. Sir
Norman, having heard the whisper, asked who had advised him so
skilfully. He answered that it was the butler. ‘That is strange,’ quoth
Sir Norman, ‘for the butler is unacquainted with the game.’ On
inquiry, the man told that he had not spoken from any skill of his
own. He had seen the spirit, Browny, reaching his arm over the
player’s head, and touching with his finger the spot where the table-
man was to be placed. ‘This,’ says Martin, ‘was told me by Sir
Norman and others, who happened to be present at the time.’
Sir Norman Macleod relates another case in which his own
knowledge comes in importantly for authentication. A gentleman in
the isle of Harris had always been ‘seen’ with an arrow in his thigh,
and it was expected that he would not go out of the world without the
prediction being fulfilled. Sir Norman heard the matter spoken of for
many years before the death of the gentleman. At length the
gentleman died, without any such occurrence taking place. Sir
Norman was at his funeral, at St Clement’s kirk, in Harris. The
custom of that island being to bury men of importance in a stone
chest in the church, the body was brought on an open bier. A dispute
took place among the friends at the church door as to who should
enter first, and from words it came to blows. One who was armed
with a bow and arrows, let fly amongst them, and after Sir Norman
Macleod had appeased the tumult, one of the arrows was found
sticking in the dead man’s thigh!
Martin was informed by John Morison of Bragir, in Lewis, ‘a
person of unquestionable sincerity and reputation,’ respecting a girl
of twelve years old, living within a mile of his house, who was
troubled with the frequent vision of a person exactly resembling
herself, who seemed to be always employed just as she herself might
be at the moment. At the suggestion of John Morison, prayers were
put up in the family, in which he and the girl joined, entreating that
God would be pleased to relieve her from this unpleasant visitation;
and after that she saw her double no more. Another neighbour of
John Morison was haunted by a spirit resembling himself, who never
spoke to him within doors, but pestered him constantly out of doors
with impertinent questions. At the 1703.
recommendation of a neighbour, the man
threw a live coal in the face of the vision; in consequence of which,
the spirit assailed him in the fields next day, and beat him so sorely,
that he had to keep his bed for fourteen days. Martin adds: ‘Mr
Morison, minister of the parish, and several of his friends, came to
see the man, and joined in prayer that he might be freed from this
trouble; but he was still haunted by that spirit a year after I left
Lewis.’
Another case in which the spirit used personal violence, but of an
impalpable kind, is related by Martin as happening at Knockowe, in
Skye, and as reported to him by the family who were present when
the circumstance occurred. A man-servant, who usually enjoyed
perfect health, was one evening taken violently ill, fell back upon the
floor, and then began to vomit. The family were much concerned,
being totally at a loss to account for so sudden an attack; but in a
short while the man recovered, and declared himself free of pain. A
seer in the family explained the mystery. In a neighbouring village
lived an ill-natured female, who had had some hopes of marriage
from this man, but was likely to be disappointed. He had seen this
woman come in with a furious countenance, and fall a-scolding her
lover in the most violent manner, till the man tumbled from his seat,
albeit unconscious of the assault made upon him.
Several instances of second-sight are recorded in connection with
historical occurrences. Sir John Harrington relates that, at an
interview he had with King James in 1607, the conversation having
turned upon Queen Mary, the king told him that her death had been
seen in Scotland before it happened, ‘being, as he said, “spoken of in
secret by those whose power of sight presented to them a bloody
head dancing in the air.” He then,’ continues Harrington, ‘did remark
much on this gift.’[345] It is related in May’s History of England, that
when the family of King James was leaving Scotland for England, an
old hermit-like seer was brought before them, who took little notice
of Prince Henry, but wept over Prince Charles—then three years old
—lamenting to think of the misfortunes he was to undergo, and
declaring he should be the most miserable of princes. A Scotch
nobleman had a Highland seer brought to London, where he asked
his judgment on the Duke of Buckingham, then at the height of his
fortunes as the king’s favourite. ‘Pish!’ said 1703.
he, ‘he will come to nothing. I see a dagger
in his breast!’ In time the duke, as is well known, was stabbed to the
heart by Lieutenant Felton.
In one of the letters on second-sight, written to Mr Aubrey from
Scotland about 1693–94, reference is made to the seer Archibald
Macdonald, who has already been introduced in connection with
instances occurring in Skye. According to this writer, who was a
divinity student living in Strathspey, Inverness-shire, Archibald
announced a prediction regarding the unfortunate Earl of Argyle. He
mentioned it at Balloch Castle (now Castle-Grant), in the presence of
the Laird of Grant, his lady, and several others, and also in the house
of the narrator’s father. He said of Argyle, of whom few or none then
knew where he was, that he would within two months come to the
West Highlands, and raise a rebellious faction, which would be
divided in itself, and disperse, while the earl would be taken and
beheaded at Edinburgh, and his head set upon the Tolbooth, where
his father’s head was before. All this proved strictly true.
Archibald Macdonald was a friend of Macdonald of Glencoe, and
accompanied him in the expedition of Lord Dundee in 1689 for the
maintenance of King James’s interest in the Highlands. Mr Aubrey’s
correspondent, who was then living in Strathspey, relates that
Dundee’s irregular forces followed General Mackay’s party along
Speyside till they came to Edinglassie, when he turned and marched
up the valley. At the Milltown of Gartenbeg, the Macleans joined, but
remained behind to plunder. Glencoe, with Archibald in his
company, came to drive them forward; and when this had been to
some extent effected, the seer came up and said: ‘Glencoe, if you will
take my advice, you will make off with yourself with all possible
haste. Ere an hour come and go, you’ll be as hard put to it as ever you
were in your life.’ Glencoe took the hint, and, within an hour, Mackay
appeared at Culnakyle, in Abernethy, with a party of horse, and
chased the Macleans up the Morskaith; in which chase Glencoe was
involved, and was hard put to it, as had been foretold. It is added,
that Archibald likewise foretold that Glencoe would be murdered in
the night-time in his own house, three months before it happened.
A well-vouched instance of the second-sight connected with a
historical incident, is related by Drummond of Bohaldy, regarding
the celebrated Highland paladin, Sir Ewen Cameron of Locheil, who
died at the age of ninety in 1719. ‘Very early that morning [December
24, 1715] whereon the Chevalier de St 1703.
George landed at Peterhead, attended only
by Allan Cameron, one of the gentlemen of his bedchamber, Sir
Ewen started, as it were, in a surprise, from his sleep, and called out
so loud to his lady (who lay by him in another bed) that his king was
landed—that his king was arrived—and that his son Allan was with
him, that she awaked.’ She then received his orders to summon the
clan, and make them drink the king’s (that is, the Chevalier’s) health
—a fête they engaged in so heartily, that they spent in it all the next
day. ‘His lady was so curious, that she noted down the words upon
paper, with the date; which she a few days after found verified in
fact, to her great surprise.’ Bohaldy remarks that this case fully
approved itself to the whole clan Cameron, as they heard their chief
speak of scarcely anything else all that day.[346]
 Predictions of death formed a large class of cases of second-sight.
The event was usually indicated by the subject of the vision
appearing in a shroud, and the higher the vestment rose on the
figure, the event was the nearer. ‘If it is not seen above the middle,’
says Martin, ‘death is not to be expected for the space of a year, and
perhaps some months longer. When it is seen to ascend higher
towards the head, death is concluded to be at hand within a few days,
if not hours, as daily experience confirms. Examples of this kind were
shewn me, when the person of whom the observation was made
enjoyed perfect health.’ He adds, that sometimes death was foretold
of an individual by hearing a loud cry, as from him, out of doors.
‘Five women were sitting together in the same room, and all of them
heard a loud cry passing by the window. They thought it plainly to be
the voice of a maid who was one of the number. She blushed at the
time, though not sensible of her so doing, contracted a fever next
day, and died that week.’
In a pamphlet on the second-sight, written by Mr John Fraser,
dean of the Isles, and minister of Tiree and Coll, is an instance of
predicted death, which the author reports on his own knowledge.
Having occasion to go to Tobermory, in Mull, to assist in some
government investigations for the recovery of treasure in the vessel
of the Spanish Armada known to have been there sunk, he was
accompanied by a handsome servant-lad, besides other attendants.
[347]
A woman came before he sailed, and, through the medium of a
seaman, endeavoured to dissuade him from 1703.
taking that youth, as he would never bring
him back alive. The seaman declined to communicate her story to Mr
Fraser. The company proceeded on their voyage, and met adverse
weather; the boy fell sick, and died on the eleventh day. Mr Fraser,
on his return, made a point of asking the woman how she had come
to know that this lad, apparently so healthy, was near his death. She
told Mr Fraser that she had seen the boy, as he walked about, ‘sewed
up in his winding-sheets from top to toe;’ this she always found to be
speedily followed by the death of the person so seen.
Martin relates that a woman was accustomed for some time to see
a female figure, with a shroud up to the waist, and a habit resembling
her own; but as the face was turned away, she never could ascertain
who it was. To satisfy her curiosity, she tried an experiment. She
dressed herself with that part of her clothes behind which usually
was before. The vision soon after presented itself with its face
towards the seeress, who found it to be herself. She soon after died.
Although the second-sight had sunk so much in Martin’s time,
that, according to him, there was not one seer for ten that had been
twenty years before, it continued to be so much in vogue down to the
reign of George III., that a separate treatise on the subject,
containing scores of cases, was published in 1763 by an educated
man styling himself Theophilus Insulanus, as a means of checking in
some degree the materialising tendencies of the age, this author
considering the gift as a proof of the immortality of the soul. When
Dr Johnson, a few years later, visited the Highlands, he found the
practice, so to speak, much declined, and the clergy almost all
against it. Proofs could, nevertheless, be adduced that there are even
now, in the remoter parts of the Highlands, occasional alleged
instances of what is called second-sight, with a full popular belief in
their reality.

Charles, Earl of Hopetoun,[348] set forth in 1704. Jan. 25.

a petition to the Privy Council, that in his
minority, many years ago, his tutors had caused a windmill to be
built at Leith for grinding and refining the ore from his lead-mines.
In consequence of the unsettling of a particular bargain, the mill had
been allowed to lie unused till now, when it required some repair in
order to be fit for service. One John Smith, 1704.
who had set up a saw-mill in Leith, being
the only man seen in this kind of work, had been called into
employment by his lordship for the repair of the windmill; but the
wright-burgesses of Edinburgh interfered violently with the work, on
the ground of their corporation privileges, ‘albeit it is sufficiently
known that none of them have been bred to such work or have any
skill therein.’ Indeed, some part of the original work done by them
had now to be taken down, so ill was it done. It was obviously a
public detriment that such a work should thus be brought to a stand-
still. The Council, entering into the earl’s views, gave him a
protection from the claims of the wright-burgesses.
 It is notorious that the purity of the Court Feb.
of Session continued down to this time to be
subject to suspicion. It was generally understood that a judge
favoured his friends and connections, and could be ‘spoken to’ in
behalf of a party in a suit. The time was not yet long past when each
lord had a ‘Pate’—that is, a dependent member of the bar (sometimes
called Peat), who, being largely fee’d by a party, could on that
consideration influence his patron.
A curious case, illustrative of the character of the bench, was now
in dependence. The heritors of the parish of Dalry raised an action
for the realisation of a legacy of £3000, which had been left to them
for the founding of a school by one Dr Johnston. The defender was
John Joissy, surgeon, an executor of the testator, who resisted the
payment of the money on certain pretexts. With the assistance of
Alexander Gibson of Durie, a principal clerk of Session, Joissy gained
favour with a portion of the judges, including the president. On the
other hand, the heritors, under the patronage of the Earl of
Galloway, secured as many on their side. A severe contest was
therefore to be expected. According to a report of the case in the
sederunt-book of the parish, the Lord President managed to have it
judged under circumstances favourable to Joissy. The court having
‘accidentally appointed a peremptor day about the beginning of
February 1704 for reporting and deciding in the cause, both parties
concluded that the parish would then gain it, since one of Mr Joissy’s
lords came to be then absent. For as my Lord Anstruther’s hour in
the Outer House was betwixt nine and ten of the clock in the
morning, so the Earl of Lauderdale, as Lord Ordinary in the Outer
House, behoved to sit from ten to twelve in 1704.
the forenoon: for by the 21st act of the
fourth session of the first parliament of King William and Queen
Mary, it’s statuted expressly, that if the Lord Ordinary in the Outer
Houses sit and vote in any cause in the Inner House after the chap of
ten hours in the clock, he may be declined by either party in the
cause from ever voting thereafter therintill: yet such was the Lord
President’s management, that so soon as my Lord Anstruther
returned from the Outer House at ten of the clock, and that my Lord
Lauderdale was even desired by some of the lords to take his post in
the Outer House in the terms of law: yet his lordship was pleased
after ten to sit and vote against the parish, the president at that
juncture having put the cause to a vote.’
The heritors, by the advice of some of the lords in their interest,
gave in a declinature of Lord Lauderdale, on the ground of the
illegality of his sitting in the Inner House after ten o’clock;
whereupon, next morning, the Lord President came into the court in
a great rage, demanding that all those concerned in the declinature
should be punished as criminals. The leading decliner, Mr Ferguson
of Cairoch, escaped from town on horseback, an hour before the
macer came to summon him. The counsel, John Menzies of Cammo,
and the agent, remained to do what they could to still the storm.
According to the naïve terms of the report, ‘the speat [flood] was so
high against the parish and them all the time, that they behoved to
employ all their friends, and solicit a very particular lord that
morning before they went to the house; and my Lord President was
so high upon’t, that when Cammo told him that my Lord Lauderdale,
contrair to the act of parliament, sat after ten o’clock, his lordship
unmannerly said to Cammo, as good a gentleman as himself, that it
was a damned lie.’
Menzies, though a very eminent counsel, and the agent, found all
their efforts end in an order for their going to jail, while a suitable
punishment should be deliberated upon. After some discussion, a
slight calm ensued, and they were liberated on condition of coming
to the bar as malefactors, and there begging the Earl of Lauderdale’s
pardon. The parish report states that no remedy could be obtained,
for ‘the misery at that time was that the lords were in effect absolute,
for they did as they pleased, and when any took courage to protest
for remeid of law to the Scots parliament, they seldom or never got
any redress there, all the lords being still present, by which the
parliament was so overawed that not ane 1704.
[349]
decreit among a hundred was reduced.’
It is strange to reflect, that among these judges were Lord
Fountainhall and Lord Arniston, with several other men who had
resisted tyrannous proceedings of the old government, to their own
great suffering and loss. Wodrow promises of Halcraig, that, for his
conduct regarding the test in 1684, his memory would be ‘savoury.’
The same author, speaking of the set in 1726 as dying out, says he
wishes their places may be as well filled. ‘King William,’ he says,
‘brought in a good many substantial, honest country gentlemen, well
affected to the government and church, and many of them really
religious, though there might be some greater lawyers than some of
them have been and are. But, being men of integrity and weight,
they have acted a fair and honest part these thirty years, and keep
the bench in great respect. May their successors be equally diligent
and conscientious!’[350] Of course, by fairness and honesty, Wodrow
chiefly meant soundness in revolution politics, and steadfast
adherence to the established church.
Another instance of the vigorous action of the Lords in the
maintenance of their dignity occurred in December 1701. A
gentleman, named Cannon of Headmark, having some litigation with
the Viscount Stair and Sir James Dalrymple, his brother Alexander,
an agent before the court, used some indiscreet expressions
regarding the judges in a paper drawn up by him. Being called before
the Lords, and having acknowledged the authorship of the paper, he
was sent to prison for a month, ordered then to crave pardon of the
court on his knees, and thereafter to be for ever debarred from
carrying on business as an agent.[351]
Some letters regarding a lawsuit of William Foulis of Woodhall in
1735–37, which have been printed,[352] shew that it was even then still
customary to use influence with the Lords in favour of parties, and
the female connections appear as taking a large share in the
business. One sentence is sufficient to reveal the whole system. ‘By
Lord St Clair’s advice, Mrs Kinloch is to wait on Lady Cairnie to-
morrow, to cause her to ask the favour of Lady St Clair to solicit Lady
Betty Elphinston and Lady Dun’—the former being the wife of Lord
Coupar, and the latter of Lord Dun, two of 1704.
the judges. Lord St Clair’s hint to Mrs
Kinloch to get her friend to speak to his own wife—he thus keeping
clear of the affair himself—is a significant particular. Lord Dun, who
wrote a moral volume, entitled Advices,[353] and was distinguished for
his piety, is spoken of by tradition as such a lawyer as might well be
open to any force that was brought to bear upon him. The present Sir
George Sinclair heard Mr Thomas Coutts relate that, when a difficult
case came before the court, where Lord Dun acted alone as
‘ordinary,’ he was heard to say: ‘Eh, Lord, what am I to do? Eh, sirs, I
wiss ye wad mak it up.’
 It will be surprising to many to learn that the idea of having
‘friends’ to a cause on the bench was not entirely extinct in a reign
which people in middle life can well recollect. The amiable Charles
Duke of Queensberry, who had been the patron of Gay, was also the
friend of James Burnett of Monboddo, and had exacted a promise
that Burnett should be the next person raised to the bench. ‘On Lord
Milton’s death (1767), the duke waited on his majesty, and reminded
him of his promise, which was at once admitted, and orders were
immediately given to the secretary of state [Conway] to make out the
royal letter. The lady of the secretary was nearly allied to the family
of Hamilton, and being most naturally solicitous about the vote
which Mr Burnett might give in the great cause of which he had
taken so much charge as a counsel, she and the Duchess of Hamilton
and Argyle were supposed to have induced their brother-in-law, Mr
Secretary Conway, to withhold for many weeks the letter of
appointment, and is even supposed to have represented Mr Burnett’s
character in such unfavourable colours to the Lord Chancellor
Henley, that his lordship is reported to have jocosely declared, that if
she could prove her allegations against that gentleman, instead of
making him a judge, he would hang him. This delay gave rise to
much idle conjecture and conversation in Edinburgh, and it was
confidently reported that Mr Burnett’s appointment would not take
place till after the decision of the Douglas cause. Irritated by these
insinuations against his integrity, he wrote to the Duke of
Queensberry, declaring that if his integrity as a judge could be
questioned in this cause, he should positively refuse to be trusted
with any other; and so highly did he resent the opposition made by
the secretary to his promotion, that he took measures for canvassing
his native county, in order to oppose in 1704.
parliament a ministry who had so grossly
affronted him. The Duke of Queensberry, equally indignant at the
delay, requested an audience of his majesty, and tendered a
surrender of his commission as justice-general of Scotland, if the
royal promise was not fulfilled. In a few days the letter was
despatched, and Lord Monboddo took his seat in the court.’[354]

Under the excitement created by the news Feb. 2.

of a Jacobite plot, the zealous Presbyterians
of Dumfriesshire rose to wreak out their long pent-up feelings
against the Catholic gentry of their district. Having fallen upon
sundry houses, and pillaged them of popish books, images, &c., they
marched in warlike manner to Dumfries, under the conduct of James
Affleck of Adamghame and John M‘Jore of Kirkland, and there made
solemn incremation of their spoil at the Cross.
A number of ‘popish vestments, trinkets, and other articles’ having
been found about the same time in and about Edinburgh, the Privy
Council (March 14) ordered such of them as were not intrinsically
valuable to be burned next day at the Cross; but the chalice, patine,
and other articles in silver and gold, to be melted down, and the
proceeds given to the kirk-treasurer.[355]
Notwithstanding this treatment, we find it reported in 1709, that
‘papists do openly and avowedly practise within the city of
Edinburgh and suburbs.’ It was intimated at the same time, that
there is ‘now also a profane and deluded crew of enthusiasts, set up
in this place, who, under pretence to the spirit of prophecy, do utter
most horrid blasphemies against the ever-glorious Trinity, such as
ought not to be suffered in any Christian church or nation.’[356]
Sir George Maxwell of Orchardton, in the stewartry of
Kirkcudbright, having gone over to the Church of Rome, and the next
heir, who was a Protestant, being empowered by the statute of 1700
to claim his estate, his uncle, Thomas Maxwell of Gelstoun, a man of
seventy years of age, came forward on this adventure (June 1704),
further demanding that the young baronet should be decerned to pay
him six thousand merks as a year’s rent of his estate for employing
George Maxwell of Munshes, a known 1704.
papist, to be his factor, and five hundred
more from Munshes himself for accepting the trust.
A petition presented by the worthy Protestant uncle to the Privy
Council, makes us aware that George Maxwell of Munshes, ‘finding
he would be reached for accepting the said factory, out of malice
raised a lawburrows,’ in which Orchardton concurred, though out of
the kingdom, against Gelstoun and his son, as a mere pretext for
stopping proceedings; but he trusted the Lords would see through
the trick, and defeat it by accepting the cautioners he offered for its
suspension. The Council, doubtless duly indignant that a papist
should so try to save his property, complied with Gelstoun’s petition.
[357]

A statute of the Sixth James, anno 1621— Apr. 12.

said to have been borrowed from one of
Louis XIII. of France—had made it unlawful for any tavern-keeper to
allow individuals to play in his house at cards and dice, or for any
one to play at such games in a private house, unless where the master
of the house was himself playing; likewise ordaining, that any sum
above a hundred merks gained at horse-racing, or in less than
twenty-four hours at other play, should be forfeited to the poor of the
district. During the ensuing period of religious strictness, we hear
little of gambling in Scotland, but when the spring was relaxed, it
began to reappear with other vices of ease and prosperity. A case,
reported in the law-books under July 1688, makes us aware, as by a
peep through a curtain, that gentlemen were accustomed at that time
to win and lose at play sums which appear large in comparison with
incomes and means then general. It appears that Captain Straiton,
who was well known afterwards as a busy Jacobite partisan, won
from Sir Alexander Gilmour of Craigmillar, at cards, in one night, no
less than six thousand merks, or £338, 6s. 8d. sterling. The captain
first gained four thousand, for which he obtained a bond from Sir
Alexander; then he gained two thousand more, and got a new bond
for the whole. An effort was made to reduce the bond, but without
success.
Francis Charteris, a cadet of an ancient and honourable family in
Dumfriesshire, and who had served in Marlborough’s wars, was now
figuring in Edinburgh as a member of the beau monde, with the
reputation of being a highly successful gambler. There is a story told
of him—but I cannot say with what truth—that, being at the Duke of
Queensberry’s one evening, and playing with the duchess, he was
enabled, by means of a mirror, or more 1704.
probably a couple of mirrors placed
opposite each other, to see what cards she had in her hand, through
which means he gained from her Grace no less a sum than three
thousand pounds. It is added that the duke was provoked by this
incident to get a bill passed through the parliament over which he
presided, for prohibiting gambling beyond a certain moderate sum;
but this must be a mistake, as no such act was then passed by the
Scottish Estates; nor was any such statute necessary, while that of
1621 remained in force. We find, however, that the Town Council at
this date issued an act of theirs, threatening vigorous action upon the
statute of 1621, as concerned playing at cards and dice in public
houses, as ‘the occasion of horrid cursing, quarrelling, tippling, loss
of time, and neglect of necessary business—the constables to be
diligent in detecting offenders, on pain of having to pay the fines
themselves.’ Perhaps it was at the instigation of the duke that this
step was taken.
From Fountainhall we learn that, about 1707, Sir Andrew Ramsay
of Abbotshall lost 28,000 merks, to Sir Scipio Hill, at cards and dice,
and granted a bond upon his estate for the amount. This being in
contravention of the act of 1621, the kirk-treasurer put in his claim
for all above 100 merks on behalf of the poor, but we do not learn
with what success.

Sir Thomas Dalyell of Binns—grandson of July 4.

the old bearded persecutor of the times of
the Charleses—had for a long time past been ‘troubled with a sore
disease which affects his reason, whereby he is continually exposed
to great dangers to his own person, by mobs, and others that does
trouble him.’ It was also found that ‘by the force of his disease, he is
liable to squander away and dilapidate his best and readiest effects,
as is too notourly known.’ Such is the statement of Sir Thomas’s
nephew, Robert Earl of Carnwath; his sister, Magdalen Dalyell; and
her husband, James Monteith of Auldcathie, craving authority, ‘for
the preservation of his person and estate, and also for the public
peace,’ to take him into custody in his house of Binns, ‘till means be
used for his recovery;’ likewise power to employ a factor ‘for uplifting
so much of his rents as may be necessar for his subsistence, and the
employing doctors and apothecaries, according to the exigence of his
present condition.’
The Council not only granted the petition, but ordained that the
petitioners might order up a soldier or two at any time from
Blackness, to assist in restraining the 1704.
unfortunate gentleman.