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 CONTENTS ix

PART III: MULTIPLE REGRESSION DIAGNOSTICS 739

12.11 Residual Analysis: Checking the Regression Assumptions 739
12.12 Some Pitfalls: Estimability, Multicollinearity, and Extrapolation 753
STATISTICS in ACTION: Bid Rigging in the Highway Construction Industry 666
ACTIVITY 12.1: Insurance Premiums: Collecting Data for Several Variables 773
ACTIVITY 12.2: Collecting Data and Fitting a Multiple Regression Model 773
USING TECHNOLOGY: Multiple Regression 774
MAKING BUSINESS DECISIONS: The Condo Sales Case (Covers Chapters 11 and 12) 778

Methods for Quality Improvement: Statistical

13 Process Control (Available on CD) 13-1
13.1 Quality, Processes, and Systems 13-3
13.2 Statistical Control 13-6
13.3 The Logic of Control Charts 13-13
13.4 A Control Chart for Monitoring the Mean of a Process: The x-Chart 13-17
13.5 A Control Chart for Monitoring the Variation of a Process: The R-Chart 13-33
13.6 A Control Chart for Monitoring the Proportion of Defectives
Generated by a Process: The p-Chart 13-42
13.7 Diagnosing the Causes of Variation 13-51
13.8 Capability Analysis 13-53
STATISTICS in ACTION: Testing Jet Fuel Additive for Safety 13-1
ACTIVITY 13.1: Quality Control: Consistency 13-65
USING TECHNOLOGY: Control Charts 13-66
MAKING BUSINESS DECISIONS: The Gasket Manufacturing Case (Covers Chapter 13) 13-69

Time Series: Descriptive Analyses, Models,

14 and Forecasting (Available on CD) 14-1
14.1 Descriptive Analysis: Index Numbers 14-2
14.2 Descriptive Analysis: Exponential Smoothing 14-12
14.3 Time Series Components 14-16
14.4 Forecasting: Exponential Smoothing 14-17
14.5 Forecasting Trends: Holt’s Method 14-20
14.6 Measuring Forecast Accuracy: MAD and RMSE 14-25
14.7 Forecasting Trends: Simple Linear Regression 14-29
14.8 Seasonal Regression Models 14-32
14.9 Autocorrelation and the Durbin-Watson Test 14-38
STATISTICS in ACTION: Forecasting the Monthly Sales of a New Cold Medicine 14-1
ACTIVITY 14.1: Time Series 14-48
USING TECHNOLOGY: Forecasting 14-49
x CONTENTS

Nonparametric Statistics (Available on CD) 15-1

15 15.1 Introduction: Distribution-Free Tests 15-2
15.2 Single Population Inferences 15-3
15.3 Comparing Two Populations: Independent Samples 15-9
15.4 Comparing Two Populations: Paired Difference Experiment 15-17
15.5 Comparing Three or More Populations: Completely Randomized Design 15-25
15.6 Comparing Three or More Populations: Randomized Block Design 15-31
15.7 Rank Correlation 15-37
STATISTICS in ACTION: How Vulnerable Are New Hampshire Wells
to Groundwater Contamination? 15-1
ACTIVITY 15.1: Keep the Change: Nonparametric Statistics 15-53
USING TECHNOLOGY: Nonparametric Tests 15-53
MAKING BUSINESS DECISIONS: Detecting “Sales Chasing” (Covers Chapters 10 and 15) 15-59

Appendix A: Summation Notation 781

Appendix B: Basic Counting Rules 783
Appendix C: Calculation Formulas for Analysis of Variance 787
C.1 Formulas for the Calculations in the Completely Randomized Design 787
C.2 Formulas for the Calculations in the Randomized Block Design 788
C.3 Formulas for the Calculations for a Two-Factor Factorial Experiment 789
C.4 Tukey’s Multiple Comparisons Procedure (Equal Sample Sizes) 790
C.5 Bonferroni Multiple Comparisons Procedure (Pairwise Comparisons) 790
C.6 Scheffé’s Multiple Comparisons Procedure (Pairwise Comparisons) 791
Appendix D: Tables 793
Table I Binomial Probabilities 794
Table II Normal Curve Areas 797
Table III Critical Values of t 798
Table IV Critical Values of x 2
799
Table V Percentage Points of the F-Distribution, a = .10 801
Table VI Percentage Points of the F-Distribution, a = .05 803
Table VII Percentage Points of the F-Distribution, a = .025 805
Table VIII Percentage Points of the F-Distribution, a = .01 807
Table IX Control Chart Constants 809
Table X Critical Values for the Durbin-Watson d-Statistic, a = .05 810
Table XI Critical Values for the Durbin-Watson d-Statistic, a = .01 811
Table XII Critical Values of TL and TU for the Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test:
Independent Samples 812
Table XIII Critical Values of T0 in the Wilcoxon Paired Difference Signed Rank Test 813
Table XIV Critical Values of Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient 814
Table XV Critical Values of the Studentized Range, a = .05 815

Answers to Selected Exercises A-1

Index I-1
Credits C-1
 † Preface
This twelfth edition of Statistics for Business and Economics is an introductory text
emphasizing inference, with extensive coverage of data collection and analysis as needed
to evaluate the reported results of statistical studies and make good decisions. As in ear-
lier editions, the text stresses the development of statistical thinking, the assessment of
credibility, and the value of the inferences made from data, both by those who consume
and those who produce them. It assumes a mathematical background of basic algebra.
The text incorporates the following features, developed from the American
Statistical Association (ASA)–sponsored conferences on Making Statistics More Effec-
tive in Schools of Business (MSMESB) and the ASA’s Guidelines for Assessment and
Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE) Project:
‡Emphasize statistical literacy and develop statistical thinking

‡Use real data in applications

‡Use technology for developing conceptual understanding and analyzing data

‡Foster active learning in the classroom

‡Stress conceptual understanding rather than mere knowledge of procedures

‡Emphasize intuitive concepts of probability

New in the Twelfth Edition

‡ More than 1,200 Exercises, with Revisions and Updates to 30 Percent of Them.
Many new and updated exercises, based on contemporary business-related studies
and real data, have been added. Most of these exercises foster and promote critical
thinking skills.
‡ Updated Technology. All printouts from statistical software (Excel/XLSTAT, SPSS,
Minitab, and the TI-84 graphing calculator) and corresponding instructions for use
have been revised to reflect the latest versions of the software.
‡ New Statistics in Action Cases. Four of the 14 Statistics in Action cases are new, each
based on real data from a recent business study.
‡ Continued Emphasis on Ethics. Where appropriate, boxes have been added empha-
sizing the importance of ethical behavior when collecting, analyzing, and interpreting
data with statistics.

Content-Specific Changes to This Edition

‡ Chapter 1 (Statistics, Data, and Statistical Thinking). Material on all basic sampling
concepts (e.g., random sampling and sample survey designs) has been streamlined and
moved to Section 1.6 (Collecting Data: Sampling and Related Issues).
‡ Chapter 2 (Methods for Describing Sets of Data). The section on summation notation
has been moved to the appendix (Appendix A). Also, recent examples of mislead-
ing graphics have been added to Section 2.10 (Distorting the Truth with Descriptive
Techniques).
‡ Chapter 4 (Random Variables and Probability Distributions). Use of technology for
computing probabilities of random variables with known probability distributions
(e.g., binomial, Poisson, normal, and exponential distributions) has been incorpo-
rated into the relevant sections of this chapter. Also, the section on approximating a

xi
xii PREFACE

binomial distribution with a normal distribution has been incorporated into

Section 4.6 (The Normal Distribution).
‡ Chapter 5 (Sampling Distributions). Material on the sampling distribution of the
sample mean (originally in Part III of Chapter 4) has been moved to create this new
chapter. Also, two new sections have been added, Section 5.2 (Properties of Sampling
Distributions: Unbiasedness and Minimum Variance) and Section 5.4 (The Sampling
Distribution of the Sample Proportion).
‡ Chapter 6 (Inferences Based on a Single Sample: Estimation with Confidence
Intervals). An optional section (Section 6.7) on estimating a population variance has
been added.
‡ Chapter 7 (Inferences Based on a Single Sample: Tests of Hypotheses). The section
on p-values in hypothesis testing (Section 7.3) has been moved up to emphasize the
importance of their use in business-related studies. Throughout the remainder of the
text, conclusions from a test of hypothesis are based on p-values.
‡ Chapter 10 (Categorical Data Analysis). A subsection on contingency tables with fixed
marginals has been added to Section 10.3.

Hallmark Strengths
We have maintained the pedagogical features of Statistics for Business and Economics
that we believe make it unique among introductory business statistics texts. These fea-
tures, which assist the student in achieving an overview of statistics and an understand-
ing of its relevance in both the business world and everyday life, are as follows:
‡ Use of Examples as a Teaching Device Almost all new ideas are introduced and illu-
strated by data-based applications and examples. We believe that students better
understand definitions, generalizations, and theoretical concepts after seeing an appli-
cation. All examples have three components: (1) Problem, (2) Solution, and (3) Look
Back (or Look Ahead). This step-by-step process provides students with a defined
structure by which to approach problems and enhances their problem-solving skills.
The Look Back/Look Ahead feature often gives helpful hints to solving the problem
and/or provides a further reflection or insight into the concept or procedure that is
covered.
‡ Now Work Exercises A Now Work exercise suggestion follows most examples. The
Now Work exercise (marked with the NW icon in the exercise sets) is similar in
style and concept to the text example. This provides the student with an opportunity
to immediately test and confirm his or her understanding.
‡ Real Data-Based Exercises The text includes more than 1,200 exercises based on
applications in a variety of business disciplines and research areas. All the applied
exercises employ the use of current real data extracted from current publications
(e.g., newspapers, magazines, journals, and the Internet). Some students have diffi-
culty learning the mechanics of statistical techniques when all problems are couched
in terms of realistic applications. For this reason, we have six types of exercises:
Learning the Mechanics. Designed as straightforward applications of new con-
cepts, these exercises allow students to test their ability to comprehend a math-
ematical concept or a definition.
Applying the Concepts—Basic. Based on applications taken from a wide variety
of business journals, newspapers, and other sources, these short exercises help
students begin developing the skills necessary to diagnose and analyze real-world
problems.
Applying the Concepts—Intermediate. Based on more detailed real-world
applications, these exercises require students to apply their knowledge of the
technique presented in the section.
 PREFACE xiii

Applying the Concepts—Advanced. These more difficult real-data exercises

require students to utilize their critical thinking skills.
Critical Thinking Challenges. Placed at the end of the Supplementary Exercises
section only, students are presented with one or two challenging business problems.
Applet Exercises. In addition to the six types of exercises, we also have exer-
cises based on the applets (short JAVA computer programs) included on the CD,
which accompanies the text. These point-and-click applets allow students to eas-
ily run simulations that visually demonstrate some of the more difficult statistical
concepts (e.g., sampling distributions and confidence intervals). Most chapters
contain several optional applet exercises in the exercise sets. They are denoted
with the following Applet icon .
‡ Statistics in Action Cases Each chapter begins with a case study based on an actual
contemporary, controversial, or high-profile issue in business. Relevant research ques-
tions and data from the study are presented and the proper analysis demonstrated in
short Statistics in Action Revisited sections throughout the chapter. These motivate
students to critically evaluate the findings and think through the statistical issues
involved.
‡ Making Business Decisions Cases Seven extensive real-world business problem-
solving cases, with real data and assignments for the student, serve as a good capstone
and review of the material that precedes it. Typically, these cases follow two or three
chapters and require the student to apply the methods presented in these chapters.
‡ Hands-On Activities At the end of each chapter, students are provided with an
opportunity to participate in hands-on classroom activities, ranging from real data
collection to formal statistical analysis. These Activities are designed to be performed
by students individually or as a class.
‡ Biographies Brief descriptions of famous statisticians and their achievements are
presented in side boxes. With these profiles, students will develop an appreciation of
the statistician’s efforts and the discipline of statistics as a whole.
‡ Exploring Data with Statistical Software Each statistical analysis method presented is
demonstrated using output from Excel/XLSTAT, SPSS, Minitab, and the TI-84 graph-
ing calculator. Students are exposed early and often to computer printouts they will
encounter in today’s high-tech business world.
‡ Using Technology Tutorials At the end of each chapter are statistical software tutorials
with point-and-click instructions (with screen shots) for Minitab, SPSS, and Excel/
XLSTAT. These tutorials are easily located and show students how to best use and
maximize statistical software. In addition, output and keystroke instructions for the
TI-84 graphing calculator are presented.
‡ Data and Applet CD The text is accompanied by a resource CD that contains files
for all of the data sets marked with a CD icon in the text. These include data sets
for text examples, exercises, Statistics in Action, and Making Business Decisions. All
data files are saved in multiple formats. This CD also contains the applets that are
used to illustrate statistical concepts and Chapter 13 (Methods for Quality Improve-
ment: Statistical Process Control), Chapter 14 (Descriptive Analyses, Models, and
Forecasting), and Chapter 15 (Nonparametric Statistics).

Flexibility in Coverage
The text is written to allow the instructor flexibility in coverage of topics. Suggestions
for two topics, probability and regression, are given below.
‡ Probability and Counting Rules One of the most troublesome aspects of an introduc-
tory statistics course is the study of probability. Probability poses a challenge for in-
structors because they must decide on the level of presentation, and students find it
xiv PREFACE

a difficult subject to comprehend. We believe that one cause for these problems is
the mixture of probability and counting rules that occurs in most introductory texts.
Consequently, we have included the counting rules (with examples) in an appendix
(Appendix B) rather than in the body of Chapter 3. Thus, the instructor can control
the level of coverage of probability covered.
‡ Multiple Regression and Model Building This topic represents one of the most useful
statistical tools for the solution of applied problems. Although an entire text could
be devoted to regression modeling, we believe that we have presented coverage that
is understandable, usable, and much more comprehensive than the presentations in
other introductory statistics texts. We devote two full chapters to discussing the major
types of inferences that can be derived from a regression analysis, showing how these
results appear in the output from statistical software, and, most important, selecting
multiple regression models to be used in an analysis. Thus, the instructor has the choice
of a one-chapter coverage of simple linear regression (Chapter 11), a two-chapter
treatment of simple and multiple regression (excluding the sections on model building
in Chapter 12), or complete coverage of regression analysis, including model build-
ing and regression diagnostics. This extensive coverage of such useful statistical tools
will provide added evidence to the student of the relevance of statistics to real-world
problems.
‡ Role of Calculus in Footnotes Although the text is designed for students with a noncal-
culus background, footnotes explain the role of calculus in various derivations. Foot-
notes are also used to inform the student about some of the theory underlying certain
methods of analysis. These footnotes allow additional flexibility in the mathematical
and theoretical levels at which the material is presented.
† Supplements
Student Resources
Student’s Solutions Manual, by Nancy Boudreau
(Bowling Green State University), provides detailed,
worked-out solutions to all odd-numbered text exercises.
(ISBN-10: 0-321-82629-9; ISBN-13: 978-0-321-82629-9)
Excel Technology Manual, by Mark Dummeldinger
(University of South Florida), provides tutorial instruction
and worked-out text examples for Excel.The Excel Technol-
ogy Manual is available for download at pearsonhighered
.com/mathstatresrouces or within MyStatLab.
Business Insight Videos. This series of ten 4- to 7-minute
videos, each about a well-known business and the chal-
lenges it faces, focuses on statistical concepts as they
pertain to the real world. The videos can be downloaded
from within MyStatLab. Assessment questions to check
students’ understanding of the videos and answers are
available. Contact your Pearson representative for details.
Study Cards for Business Statistics Software. This series of
study cards, available for Excel® with XLSTATtm, Excel®
2010, Minitab®, JMP®, SPSS®, R®, StatCrunchtm, and TI-
83/84 graphing calculators, provides students with easy,
step-by-step guides to the most common business statistics
software. Available at www.myPearsonStore.com.
For the Instructor
Annotated Instructor’s Edition contains answers to text
exercises. Annotated marginal notes include Teach-
ing Tips, suggested exercises to reinforce the statistical
concepts discussed in the text, and short answers to the
exercises within the exercise sets. (ISBN-10: 0-321-82642-6;
ISBN-13: 978-0-321-82642-8)
Instructor’s Solutions Manual, by Nancy Boudreau
(Bowling Green State University), provides detailed,
worked-out solutions to all of the book’s exercises.
Careful attention has been paid to ensure that all meth-
ods of solution and notation are consistent with those
used in the core text. Available for download at www.
pearsonhighered.com/irc.
TestGen® (www.pearsonhighered.com/testgen) enables
instructors to build, edit, print, and administer tests
using a computerized bank of questions developed to
cover all the objectives of the text. TestGen is algorith-
mically based, allowing instructors to create multiple but
equivalent versions of the same question or test with the
click of a button. Instructors can also modify test bank
questions or add new questions. Tests can be printed
or administered online. The software and test bank are
available for download from Pearson Education’s online
catalog (www.pearsonhighered.com/irc).
Technology Resources
On the Companion CD-ROM:
‡ Data sets in multiple formats for text examples, exercises,
Statistics in Action, and Making Business Decisions
‡ Applets
‡ Chapter 13: Methods for Quality Improvement: Statisti-
cal Process Control
‡ Chapter 14: Descriptive Analyses, Models, and Forecasting
‡ Chapter 15: Nonparametric Statistics
MyStatLab™ Online Course (access code required)
MyStatLab is a course management system that delivers
proven results in helping individual students succeed.
‡ MyStatLab can be successfully implemented in any
environment—lab-based, hybrid, fully online,
traditional—and demonstrates the quantifiable differ-
ence that integrated usage has on student retention,
subsequent success, and overall achievement.
‡ MyStatLab’s comprehensive online gradebook auto-
matically tracks students’ results on tests, quizzes, home-
work, and in the study plan. Instructors can use the
gradebook to provide positive feedback or intervene
if students have trouble. Gradebook data can be eas-
ily exported to a variety of spreadsheet programs, such
as Microsoft Excel. You can determine which points of
data you want to export, and then analyze the results to
determine success.
MyStatLab provides engaging experiences that personal-
ize, stimulate, and measure learning for each student. In
addition to the resources below, each course includes a full
interactive online version of the accompanying textbook.
‡ Tutorial Exercises with Multimedia Learning Aids: The
homework and practice exercises in MyStatLab align
with the exercises in the textbook, and they regener-
ate algorithmically to give students unlimited opportu-
nity for practice and mastery. Exercises offer immediate
helpful feedback, guided solutions, sample problems,
animations, videos, and eText clips for extra help at
point-of-use.
‡ StatTalk Videos: 24 Conceptual Videos to Help You
Actually Understand Statistics. Fun-loving statistician
Andrew Vickers takes to the streets of Brooklyn, NY,
to demonstrate important statistical concepts through
interesting stories and real-life events. These fun and
engaging videos will help students actually understand
statistical concepts. Available with an instructors user
guide and assessment questions.
‡ Getting Ready for Statistics: A library of questions
now appears within each MyStatLab course to offer the
developmental math topics students need for the course.
xv
xvi SUPPLEMENTS
These can be assigned as a prerequisite to other as-
signments, if desired.
‡ Conceptual Question Library: In addition to algorith-
mically regenerated questions that are aligned with your
textbook, there is a library of one thousand Conceptual
Questions available in the assessment manager that
require students to apply their statistical understanding.
™
‡ StatCrunch : MyStatLab integrates the Web-based
statistical software, StatCrunch, within the online as-
sessment platform so that students can easily analyze
data sets from exercises and the text. In addition,
MyStatLab includes access to www.StatCrunch.com,
a Web site where users can access more than 15,000
shared data sets, conduct online surveys, perform com-
plex analyses using the powerful statistical software,
and generate compelling reports.
‡ Statistical
Software Support: Knowing that stu-
dents often use external statistical software, we
make it easy to copy our data sets, both from the
ebook and the MyStatLab questions, into software
such as StatCrunch, Minitab, Excel, and more. Students
have access to a variety of support tools—Technology
Tutorial Videos, Technology Study Cards, and Tech-
nology Manuals for select titles—to learn how to
effectively use statistical software.
‡ Expert Tutoring: Although many students describe the
whole of MyStatLab as “like having your own personal
tutor,” students also have access to live tutoring from
Pearson. Qualified statistics instructors provide tutor-
ing sessions for students via MyStatLab.
And MyStatLab comes from a trusted partner with edu-
cational expertise and an eye on the future.
‡ Knowing that you are using a Pearson product means
knowing that you are using quality content. That
means that our eTexts are accurate and our assessment
tools work. Whether you are just getting started with
MyStatLab, or have a question along the way, we’re
here to help you learn about our technologies and
how to incorporate them into your course. To learn
more about how MyStatLab combines proven learn-
ing applications with powerful assessment, visit www.
mystatlab.com or contact your Pearson representative.
MyStatLab™ Ready to Go Course
(access code required)
These new Ready to Go courses provide students with
all the same great MyStatLab features that you’re used
to, but make it easier for instructors to get started. Each
course includes pre-assigned homeworks and quizzes to
make creating your course even simpler. Ask your Pear-
son representative about the details for this particular
course or to see a copy of this course.
MathXL® for Statistics Online Course
(access code required)
MathXL® is the homework and assessment engine that
runs MyStatLab. (MyStatLab is MathXL plus a learning
management system.)
With MathXL for Statistics, instructors can:
‡ Create, edit, and assign online homework and tests us-
ing algorithmically generated exercises correlated at the
objective level to the textbook.
‡ Create and assign their own online exercises and import
TestGen tests for added flexibility.
‡ Maintain records of all student work, tracked in
MathXL’s online gradebook.
With MathXL for Statistics, students can:
‡ Take chapter tests in MathXL and receive personalized
study plans and/or personalized homework assignments
based on their test results.
‡ Use the study plan and/or the homework to link di-
rectly to tutorial exercises for the objectives they need
to study.
‡ Students can also access supplemental animations and
video clips directly from selected exercises.
‡ Knowing that students often use external statistical soft-
ware, we make it easy to copy our data sets, both from
the ebook and the MyStatLab questions, into software
like StatCrunch™, Minitab, Excel and more.
MathXL for Statistics is available to qualified adopters. For
more information, visit our Web site at www.mathxl.com or
contact your Pearson representative.
StatCrunch™
StatCrunch is powerful Web-based statistical software that
allows users to perform complex analyses, share data sets,
and generate compelling reports of their data. The vibrant
online community offers more than 15,000 data sets for
students to analyze.
‡ Collect. Users can upload their own data to StatCrunch
or search a large library of publicly shared data sets,
spanning almost any topic of interest. Also, an online
survey tool allows users to quickly collect data via Web-
based surveys.
‡ Crunch. A full range of numerical and graphical meth-
ods allows users to analyze and gain insights from any
data set. Interactive graphics help users understand sta-
tistical concepts, and are available for export to enrich
reports with visual representations of data.
‡ Communicate. Reporting options help users create a
wide variety of visually appealing representations of
their data.
Full access to StatCrunch is available with a MyStatLab kit,
and StatCrunch is available by itself to qualified adopters.
StatCrunch Mobile now available to access from your mobile
device. For more information, visit our Web site at www.
StatCrunch.com or contact your Pearson representative.
StatCrunch™ eBook
This interactive online textbook includes StatCrunch,
a powerful Web-based statistical software. Embedded
StatCrunch buttons allow users to open all data sets and
tables from the book with the click of a button and imme-
diately perform an analysis using StatCrunch.

PowerPoint® Lecture Slides provide an outline to use
in a lecture setting, presenting definitions, key con-
cepts, and figures from the text. These slides are avail-
able within MyStatLab or at www.pearsonhighered.
com/irc.
The Student Edition of Minitab® is a condensed edition of
the professional release of Minitab statistical software. It
offers the full range of statistical methods and graphical
capabilities, along with worksheets that can include up to
10,000 data points. Individual copies of the software can be
bundled with the text. (ISBN-10: 0-321-11313-6; ISBN-13:
978-0-321-11313-9)
SUPPLEMENTS xvii
JMP Student Edition is an easy-to-use, streamlined ver-
sion of JMP desktop statistical discovery software from AS
Institute, Inc., and is available for bundling with the text.
(ISBN-10: 0-321-89164-3; ISBN-13: 978-0-321-89164-8)
XLSTAT™ for Pearson. Used by leading businesses and
universities, XLSTAT is an Excel® add-in that offers a
wide variety of functions to enhance the analytical capa-
bilities of Microsoft® Excel® making it the ideal tool for
your everyday data analysis and statistics requirements.
XLSTAT™ is compatible with all Excel versions (except
Mac 2008). Available for bundling with the text. (ISBN-10:
0-321-75932-X; ISBN-13: 978-0-321-75932-0)
 † Acknowledgments
This book reflects the efforts of a great many people over a number of years. First, we
would like to thank the following professors, whose reviews and comments on this and
prior editions have contributed to the twelfth edition:

Reviewers of the Twelfth Edition of Statistics for Business and Economics

Christine Ebert University of Delaware

Laura Reisert Florida International University
Bernard Dickman Hofstra University
Daniel Sirvent Vanguard University
Arunas Dagys St. Xavier University
Rick Gibson American University
L. Douglas Smith University of Missouri–St. Louis
Karen Smith West Georgia University
Remus Osan Boston University
Steve Huchendorf University of Minnesota

Reviewers of Previous Editions

CALIFORNIA Joyce Curley-Daly, Jim Daly, Robert K. Smidt, California Polytechnic State
University
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CONNECTICUT Alan E. Gelfand, Joseph Glaz, Timothy J. Killeen, University of
Connecticut DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA Phil Cross, Jose Luis Guerrero-Cusumano,
Georgetown University
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Howard University FLORIDA John M.
Charnes, University of Miami
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Pi-Erh Lin, Doug Zahn, Florida State University
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W. Steagall, University of North Florida
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GEORGIA Robert Elrod, Georgia State University HAWAII Steve Hora, University of
Hawaii, Hilo ILLINOIS Edward Minieka, University of Illinois at Chicago
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Illinois State University
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Northern Illinois University
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Arthur Andersen & Company IOWA Dileep Dhavale, University of Northern Iowa
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Iowa State University
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Buena Vista University KANSAS Paul I. Nelson, Kansas State University
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Sherr, University of Kansas KENTUCKY Richard N. McGrath, Bowling Green State Uni-
versity LOUISIANA James Willis, Louisiana State University MARYLAND John F. Beyers,
Michael Kulansky, University of Maryland–University College
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C. Christman, University of Maryland MASSACHUSETTS Warren M. Holt, Southeastern
Massachusetts University MICHIGAN Atul Agarwal, Petros Ioannatos, GMI Engineering
and Management Institute
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 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xix

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Gombay, University of Alberta TURKEY Dilek Onkal, Bilkent University, Ankara OTHER
Michael P. Wegmann, Keller Graduate School of Management

Other Contributors
Special thanks are due to our supplements authors, Nancy Boudreau and Mark
Dummeldinger, who have worked with us for many years. C. Brad Davis provided
the excellent student activities and applet exercises, while accuracy checkers Cathleen
Zucco-Teveloff and Engin Sungur helped ensure a highly accurate, clean text. The
source material for many of the interesting and updated data-based exercises was
provided by student researchers Demelza Hays and Charles Favreau. Finally, the
Pearson Education staff of Deirdre Lynch, Marianne Stepanian, Tracy Patruno, Chere
Bemelmans, Dana Bettez, Sonia Ashraf, Erin Lane, Kathleen DeChavez, Barbara
Atkinson, Marielle Guiney, Jean Choe, Linda Cox, Ginny Michaud, and Integra-
Chicago’s Amanda Zagnoli helped greatly with all phases of the text development,
production, and marketing effort.
This page intentionally left blank
Statistics
for Business and Economics
This page intentionally left blank
 1
CONTENTS
1.1 The Science of Statistics
1.2 Types of Statistical
Applications in Business
1.3 Fundamental Elements of
Statistics
1.4 Processes*
1.5 Types of Data
1.6 Collecting Data: Sampling
and Related Issues
1.7 Critical Thinking with † Statistics, Data, and
Statistics
Statistical Thinking
STATISTICS
in ACTION A 20/20 View of Surveys: Fact or Fiction?
Where We’re Going “Did you ever notice that, no matter where you stand on popular issues of the day,
‡ Introduce the field of statistics (1.1) you can always find statistics or surveys to back up your point of view–whether to
‡ Demonstrate how statistics applies take vitamins, whether daycare harms kids, or what foods can hurt you or save you?
to business (1.2) There is an endless flow of information to help you make decisions, but is this infor-
‡ Introduce the language of statistics mation accurate, unbiased? John Stossel decided to check that out, and you may be
and the key elements of any surprised to learn if the picture you’re getting doesn’t seem quite right, maybe it isn’t.”
statistical problem (1.3)
‡ Differentiate between population Barbara Walters gave this introduction to a segment of the popular prime-time
and sample data (1.3)
ABC television program 20/20. The story was titled “Fact or Fiction?—Exposés of
‡ Differentiate between descriptive So-Called Surveys.” One of the surveys investigated by ABC correspondent John
and inferential statistics (1.3)
Stossel compared the discipline problems experienced by teachers in the 1940s and
‡ Introduce the key elements of a
those experienced today. The results: In the 1940s, teachers worried most about
process (1.4)
students talking in class, chewing gum, and running in the halls. Today, they worry
‡ Identify the different types of
data and data-collection
most about being assaulted! This information was highly publicized in the print
methods (1.5–1.6) media—in daily newspapers, weekly magazines, gossip columns, the Congressional
‡ Discover how critical thinking Quarterly, and the Wall Street Journal, among others—and referenced in speeches
through statistics can help improve by a variety of public figures, including former first lady Barbara Bush and former
our quantitative literacy (1.7) Education Secretary William Bennett.
“Hearing this made me yearn for the old days when life was so much simpler
and gentler, but was life that simple then?” asks Stossel. “Wasn’t there juvenile
delinquency [in the 1940s]? Is the survey true?” With the help of a Yale School of
Management professor, Stossel found the original source of the teacher survey—
Texas oilman T. Colin Davis—and discovered it wasn’t a survey at all! Davis had
simply identified certain disciplinary problems encountered by teachers in a conser-
vative newsletter—a list he admitted was not obtained from a statistical survey, but

1
2 C H A P T E R 1 ‡ Statistics, Data, and Statistical Thinking

STATISTICS
in ACTION from Davis’s personal knowledge of the problems in the 1940s. (“I was in school then”) and
CONTINUED
his understanding of the problems today (“I read the papers”).
Stossel’s critical thinking about the teacher “survey” led to the discovery of research
that is misleading at best and unethical at worst. Several more misleading (and possibly
unethical) surveys, conducted by businesses or special interest groups with specific ob-
jectives in mind, were presented on the ABC program. These are listed below. Two other
studies are also discussed.
The 20/20 segment ended with an interview of Cynthia Crossen, author of Tainted
Truth: The Manipulation of Fact in America, an exposé of misleading and biased surveys.
Crossen warns, “If everybody is misusing numbers and scaring us with numbers to get
us to do something, however good [that something] is, we’ve lost the power of numbers.
Now, we know certain things from research. For example, we know that smoking ciga-
rettes is hard on your lungs and heart, and because we know that, many people’s lives
have been extended or saved. We don’t want to lose the power of information to help us
make decisions, and that’s what I worry about.”

Reported Information (Source) Actual Study Information

1. Eating oat bran is a cheap and easy way
to reduce your cholesterol. (Quaker Oats)
2. 150,000 women a year die from anorexia.
(Feminist group)
3. Domestic violence causes more birth
defects than all medical issues combined.
(March of Dimes)
4. Only 29% of high school girls are happy
with themselves, compared to 66% of
elementary school girls. (American
Association of University Women)
5. One in four American children under
age 12 is hungry or at risk of hunger.
(Food Research and Action Center)
6. There is a strong correlation between a
CEO’s golf handicap and the company’s
stock performance: The lower the CEO’s
handicap (i.e., the better the golfer), the
better the stock performs. (New York
Times, May 31, 1998)
7. If the federal government’s health reform
act is passed, 30% of employers are
predicted to “definitely” or “probably”
stop offering health coverage. (McKinsey
& Company Survey, Feb. 2011)
Diet must consist of nothing but oat bran
to reduce your cholesterol count.
Approximately 1,000 women a year die from
problems that were likely caused by anorexia.
No study–false report.
Of 3,000 high school girls, 29% responded,
“Always true” to the statement “I am happy
the way I am.” Most answered, “Sort of true”
and “Sometimes true.”
Based on responses to questions:
“Do you ever cut the size of meals?”
“Do you ever eat less than you feel you should?”
“Did you ever rely on limited numbers of foods
to feed your children because you were running
out of money to buy food for a meal?”
Survey sent to CEOs of 300 largest U.S.
companies; only 51 revealed their golf
handicaps. Data for several top-ranking
CEOs were excluded from the analysis.
Online survey of 1,329 private-sector
employers in the United States. Respondents
were asked leading questions that made it
logical to stop offering health insurance.

In the following Statistics in Action Revisited sections, we discuss several key statisti-
cal concepts covered in this chapter that are relevant to misleading surveys like those
exposed in the 20/20 program.

STATISTICS in ACTION REVISITED

‡ Identifying the population, sample, and inference (p. 9)
‡ Identifying the data-collection method and data type (p. 20)
‡ Critically assessing the ethics of a statistical study (p. 23)
 S E C T I O N 1. 2 ‡ Types of Statistical Applications in Business 3

1.1 The Science of Statistics

What does statistics mean to you? Does it bring to mind batting averages? Gallup polls,
unemployment figures, or numerical distortions of facts (lying with statistics!)? Or is
it simply a college requirement you have to complete? We hope to persuade you that
statistics is a meaningful, useful science whose broad scope of applications to business,
government, and the physical and social sciences is almost limitless. We also want to
show that statistics can lie only when they are misapplied. Finally, we wish to demon-
strate the key role statistics play in critical thinking—whether in the classroom, on the
job, or in everyday life. Our objective is to leave you with the impression that the time
you spend studying this subject will repay you in many ways.
Although the term can be defined in many ways, a broad definition of statistics is the
science of collecting, classifying, analyzing, and interpreting information. Thus, a statisti-
cian isn’t just someone who calculates batting averages at baseball games or tabulates the
results of a Gallup poll. Professional statisticians are trained in statistical science—that is,
they are trained in collecting information in the form of data, evaluating it, and drawing
conclusions from it. Furthermore, statisticians determine what information is relevant in a
given problem and whether the conclusions drawn from a study are to be trusted.

Statistics is the science of data. It involves collecting, classifying, summarizing,

organizing, analyzing, and interpreting numerical and categorical information.

In the next section, you’ll see several real-life examples of statistical applications in
business and government that involve making decisions and drawing conclusions.

1.2 Types of Statistical Applications in Business

Statistics means “numerical descriptions” to most people. Monthly unemployment fig-
BIOGRAPHY ures, the failure rate of startup companies, and the proportion of female executives in
a particular industry all represent statistical descriptions of large sets of data collected
FLORENCE NIGHTINGALE on some phenomenon. Often the data are selected from some larger set of data whose
(1820–1910)
The Passionate Statistician
characteristics we wish to estimate. We call this selection process sampling. For example,
you might collect the ages of a sample of customers of an online DVD movie rental
In Victorian England, the “Lady
of the Lamp” had a mission to company to estimate the average age of all customers of the company. Then you could
improve the squalid field hospi- use your estimate to target the firm’s advertisements to the appropriate age group.
tal conditions of the British army Notice that statistics involves two different processes: (1) describing sets of data and
during the Crimean War. Today, (2) drawing conclusions (making estimates, decisions, predictions, etc.) about the sets of
most historians consider Florence
data based on sampling. So, the applications of statistics can be divided into two broad
Nightingale to be the founder of
the nursing profession. To convince areas: descriptive statistics and inferential statistics.
members of the British Parliament
of the need for supplying nursing Descriptive statistics utilizes numerical and graphical methods to explore data, i.e.,
and medical care to soldiers in the
field, Nightingale compiled mas-
to look for patterns in a data set, to summarize the information revealed in a data
sive amounts of data from the army set, and to present the information in a convenient form.
files. Through a remarkable series
of graphs (which included the first
“pie chart”), she demonstrated that Inferential statistics utilizes sample data to make estimates, decisions, predictions, or
most of the deaths in the war were
other generalizations about a larger set of data.
due to illnesses contracted outside
the battlefield or long after battle
action from wounds that went Although we’ll discuss both descriptive and inferential statistics in the following
untreated. Florence Nightingale’s chapters, the primary theme of the text is inference.
compassion and self-sacrificing
nature, coupled with her ability to
Let’s begin by examining some business studies that illustrate applications of statistics.
collect, arrange, and present large
amounts of data, led some to call Study 1.1 “Best-Selling Girl Scout Cookies” (www.girlscouts.org): Since 1917, the Girl Scouts
her the “Passionate Statistician.” of America have been selling boxes of cookies. Currently, there are eight varieties for
4 C H A P T E R 1 ‡ Statistics, Data, and Statistical Thinking

sale: Thin Mints, Samoas, Caramel deLites, Tagalongs, Peanut Butter Patties, Do-si-dos,
Peanut Butter Sandwiches, and Trefoils. Each of the approximately 150 million boxes of Girl
Scout cookies sold in 2006 was classified by variety. The results are summarized in Figure 1.1.
From the graph, you can clearly see that the best-selling variety is Thin Mints (25%), followed
by Samoas (19%) and Tagalongs (13%). Since Figure 1.1 describes the variety of categories
of the boxes of Girl Scout cookies sold, the graphic is an example of descriptive statistics.

Figure 1.1
Best-selling Girl Scout cookies
Source: “Best-Selling Girl Scout
Cookies” www.girlscouts.org.

Study 1.2 “The Executive Compensation Scoreboard” (Forbes, April 13, 2011): How much
are the top corporate executives in the United States being paid, and are they worth it?
To answer these questions, Forbes magazine compiles the “Executive Compensation
Scoreboard” each year based on a survey of executives at the 500 largest U.S. companies.
To determine which executives are worth their pay, Forbes also records the performance
of shareholders’ stock for the CEO’s company over the previous 6 years. Based on a
comparison of the stock’s performance and the CEO’s annual salary, each CEO is given
an “efficiency” rating—the lower the rating, the more the CEO is worth his/her pay.
An analysis of the scoreboard data for the highest-paid CEOs in 2011 is summarized in
Table 1.1. The table reveals that CEOs in the business services industry have the low-
est average* efficiency rating (4.5), thus, they are the best performers. The CEOs in the
telecommunications industry are the worst performers, with the highest efficiency rating
(163). Armed with this sample information, Forbes might infer that, from the sharehold-
ers’ perspective, typical chief executives in telecommunications are overpaid relative to
CEOs in business services. Thus, this study is an example of inferential statistics.

Table 1.1 Average Pay-for-Performance Efficiency Ratings of CEOs, by Industry

Average Average
Industry Efficiency Rating Industry Efficiency Rating

Aerospace and Defense 85 Hotels, Restaurants 31

Banking 59 Household Products 110
Business Services 4.5 Insurance 106
Capital Goods 85 Materials 54
Chemicals 131 Media 134
Conglomerates 126 Oil and Gas Operations 91
Construction 144 Retailing 107
Consumer Durables 11 Semiconductors 82
Diversified Financial 106 Software and Services 110
Drugs and Biotechnology 121 Technology Hardware 132
Food, Drink, Telecommunications 163
and Tobacco 140 Transportation 51
Health Care Equipment 96 Utilities 127
Source: Data from “Executive Compensation Scoreboard,” FORBES April 13, 2011.

*Although we will not formally define the term average until Chapter 2, typical or middle can be substituted
here without confusion.
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
The Project Gutenberg eBook of The band played
on
This ebook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United States
and most other parts of the world at no cost and with almost no
restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it
under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this
ebook or online at www.gutenberg.org. If you are not located in the
United States, you will have to check the laws of the country where
you are located before using this eBook.

Title: The band played on

Author: Lester Del Rey

Illustrator: John Schoenherr

Release date: September 13, 2023 [eBook #71628]

Language: English

Original publication: New York, NY: Royal Publications, Inc, 1957

Credits: Greg Weeks, Mary Meehan and the Online Distributed

Proofreading Team at http://www.pgdp.net

*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE BAND

PLAYED ON ***
 The Band Played On

by LESTER DEL REY

Illustrated by SCHOENHERR

The Heroes' March was fitting for

most spacemen. Somehow, though, if just didn't
apply to a space-borne garbage man!

[Transcriber's Note: This etext was produced from

Infinity June 1957.
Extensive research did not uncover any evidence that
the U.S. copyright on this publication was renewed.]
 Lester del Rey says: "I've grown more
and more unhappy about the trend to
stories laid a thousand years ahead and
a megaparsec away. So every once in a
while, I like to sit down with an idea
where I can be pretty darned honest
about probable facts and see if some of
the old, basic, simple ideas can't be
twisted." He has a good point there, and
we think you'll agree he has succeeded in
his aim in The Band Played On.

CHAPTER I
Inside the rocket grounds, the band was playing the inevitable
Heroes' March while the cadets snapped through the final maneuvers
of their drill. Captain Thomas Murdock stopped at the gate near the
visitors' section, waiting until the final blatant notes blared out and
were followed by the usual applause from the town kids in the stands.
The cadets broke ranks and headed for their study halls, still stepping
as if the band played on inside their heads.
Maybe it did, Murdock thought. There had been little parade drill and
less music back on Johnston Island when his group won their rocket
emblems fifteen years before; yet somehow there had been a sense
of destiny, like a drum beating in their brains, to give them the same
spring to their stride. It had sent most of them to their deaths and a
few to command positions on the moon, long before the base was
transferred here to the Florida coast.
Murdock shrugged and glanced upwards. The threatening clouds
were closing in, scudding across the sky in dark blobs and streaks,
and the wind velocity was rising. It was going to be lousy weather for
a take-off, even if things got no worse.
Behind him, a boy's voice called out. "Hey, pilot!"
He glanced about, but there was no other pilot near. He hesitated,
frowning. Then, as the call was repeated, he turned doubtfully toward
the stands. Surprisingly, a boy of about twelve was leaning over the
railing, motioning toward him and waving a notebook emphatically.
"Autograph, pilot?"
Murdock took the book and signed the blank page automatically,
while fifty pairs of eyes watched. No other books were held out, and
there was complete silence from the audience. He handed the pencil
and notebook back, trying to force a friendly smile onto his face. For a
moment, there was a faint ghost of the old pride as he turned back
across the deserted parade ground.
It didn't last. Behind him, an older voice broke the silence in disgusted
tones. "Why'd you do that, Shorty? He ain't no pilot!"
"He is, too. I guess. I know a pilot's uniform," Shorty protested.
"So what? I already told you about him. He's the garbage man!"
There was no vocal answer to that—only the ripping sound of paper
being torn from the notebook.

Murdock refused to look back as the boys left the stands. He went
across the field, past the school buildings, on toward the main
sections of the base—the business part, where the life-line to the
space station and the moon was maintained. A job, he told himself,
was a job. It was a word he would never have used six ships and
fifteen years before.
The storm flag was up on the control tower, he saw. Worse, the guy
cables were all tight, anchoring the three-stage ships firmly down in
their blast deflection pits. There were no tractors or tankers on the
rocket field to service the big ships. He stared through the thickening
gloom toward the bay, but there was no activity there, either. The
stage recovery boats were all in port, with their handling cranes
folded down. Obviously, no flight was scheduled.
It didn't fit with predictions. Hurricane Greta was hustling northward
out to sea, and the low ceiling and high winds were supposed to be
the tag end of that disturbance, due to clear by mid-day. This didn't
look that way; it looked more as if the weather men on the station had
goofed for the first time in ten years.
Murdock stared down the line toward his own ship, set apart from the
others, swaying slightly as the wind hit it. Getting it up through the
weather was going to be hell, even if he got clearance, but he couldn't
wait much longer. Greta had already put him four days behind his
normal schedule, and he'd been counting on making the trip today.
There was a flash bulletin posted outside the weather shack,
surrounded by a group of young majors and colonels from the pilot
squad. Murdock stepped around them and into the building. He was
glad to see that the man on duty was Collins, one of the few
technicians left over from the old days on the Island.
Collins looked up from his scowling study of the maps and saluted
casually without rising. "Hi, Tommy. How's the hog business?"
"Lousy," Murdock told him. "I'm going to have a hungry bunch of pigs
if I don't get another load down. What gives with the storm signals? I
thought Greta blew over."
Collins pawed the last cigarette out of a pack and shook his head as
he lighted up. "This is Hulda, they tell me. Our geniuses on the station
missed it—claimed Hulda was covered by Greta until she grew
bigger. We're just beginning to feel her. No flights for maybe five days
more."
"Hell!" It was worse than Murdock had feared. He twisted the weather
maps to study them, unbelievingly. Unlike the newer pilots, he'd spent
enough time in the weather shack to be able to read a map or a radar
screen almost as well as Collins. "The station couldn't have goofed
that much, Bill!"
"Did, though. Something's funny up there. Bailey and the other brass
are holding some pow-wow about it now, over at Communications. It's
boiling up to a first-class mess."
One of the teletypes began chattering, and Collins turned to it.
Murdock moved outside where a thin rain was beginning to fall,
whipping about in the gusts of wind. He headed for the control tower,
knowing it was probably useless. In that, he was right; no clearances
for flight could be given without General Bailey's okay, and Bailey was
still tied up in conference, apparently.
He borrowed a raincape and went out across the field toward his
ship. The rain was getting heavier, and the Mollyann was grunting
and creaking in her pit as he neared her. The guying had been well
enough done, however, and she was in no danger that he could see.
He checked the pit gauges and records. She'd been loaded with a
cargo of heavy machinery, and her stage tanks were fully fueled. At
least, if he could get clearance, she was ready to go. She was the
oldest ship on the field, but her friction-burned skin covered sound
construction and he had supervised her last overhaul himself.
Then he felt the wind picking up again, and his stomach knotted. He
moved around to the more sheltered side of the ship, cursing the
meteorologists on the station. If they'd predicted this correctly, he
could have arranged to take off during the comparative lull between
storms. Even that would have been bad enough, but now....
Abruptly, a ragged klaxon shrieked through the air in a series of short
bursts, sounding assembly for the pilots. Murdock hesitated, then
shrugged and headed out into the rain. He could ignore the signal if
he chose, since he'd been on detached duty for years, except when
actually scheduled for flight; yet it was probably his best chance to
see Bailey. He slogged along while the other pilots trotted across the
field toward Briefing on the double. Even now, covered with slickers
and tramping through mud, they seemed to be on parade drill, as if a
drum were beating out the time for them.

Murdock found a seat at the rear, separate from the others, out of old
habit. Up front, an improvised crap game was going on; elsewhere,
they were huddled in little groups, their young faces too bright and
confident. Nobody noticed him until Colonel Lawrence Hennings
glanced up from the crap game. "Hi, Tommy. Want in?"
Murdock shook his head, smiling briefly. "Can't afford it this week," he
explained.
A cat could look at royalty; and royalty was free to look at or speak to
anyone—even a man who ferried garbage for the station. At the
moment, Hennings was king, even in this crowd of self-determined
heroes. There was always one man who was the top dog. Hennings'
current position seemed as inevitable as Murdock's own had become.
Damn it, someone had to carry the waste down from the station. The
men up there couldn't just shove it out into space to have it follow
their orbit and pile up around them; shooting it back to burn up in
Earth's atmosphere had been suggested, but that took more fuel in
the long run than bringing it down by ship. With nearly eight hundred
men in the doubly expanded station, there was a lot of garbage, too.
The job was as important as carrying the supplies up, and took just
as much piloting skill. Only there was no band playing when the
garbage ship took off, and there could never be a hero's mantle over
the garbage man.
It had simply been his bad luck that he was pilot for the first load
back. The heat of landing leaked through the red-hot skin of the cargo
section, and the wastes boiled and steamed through the whole ship
and plated themselves against the hull when it began to cool, until no
amount of washing could clean it completely; after that, the ship was
considered good for nothing but the carrying of garbage down and
lifting such things as machine parts, where the smell wouldn't matter.
He'd gone on detached duty at once, exiled from the pilot shack; it
was probably only imagination, but the other men swore they couldn't
sleep in the same room with him.
He'd made something of a joke of it at first, while he waited for his
transfer at the end of the year. He'd finally consented to a second
year when they couldn't get anyone else for the job. And by the end
of five years of it, he knew he was stuck; even a transfer wouldn't
erase his reputation as the garbage man, or give him the promotions
and chances for leadership the others got. Oh, there were
advantages in freedom, but if there had been anything outside of the
service he could do....
The side door opened suddenly and General Bailey came in. He
looked older than his forty years, and the expression on his face
sobered the pilots almost at once. He took his time in dropping to the
chair behind the table, giving them a chance to come to order.
Murdock braced himself, watching as the man took out a cigarette.
Then, as it was tapped sharply on the table to pack the end, he
nodded. It was going to be a call for volunteers! The picture of the
weather outside raced through his mind, twisting at his stomach, but
he slid forward on his seat, ready to stand at once.
"At ease, men." Bailey took his time lighting the cigarette, and then
plunged into things. "A lot of you have been cursing the station for
their forecast. Well, you can forget that—we're damned lucky they
could spot Hulda at all. They're in bad shape. Know what acrolein is?
You've all had courses in atmospherics. How about it?"
The answer came out in pieces from several of the pilots. Acrolein
was one of the thirty-odd poisons that had to be filtered from the air in
the station, though it presented no problem in the huge atmosphere
of Earth. It could get into the air from the overcooking of an egg or the
burning of several proteins. "You can get it from some of the plastics,
too," one of the men added.
Bailey nodded. "You can. And that's the way they got it, from an
accident in the shops. They got enough to overload their filters, and
the replacements aren't enough to handle it. They're all being
poisoned up there—just enough to muddle their thinking at first, but
getting worse all the time. They can't wait for Hulda to pass. They've
got to have new filters at once. And that means—"
"Sir!" Hennings was on his feet, standing like a lance in a saddle
boot. "Speaking for my crew, I ask permission to deliver whatever the
station needs."
Murdock had been caught short by Hennings' sudden move, but now
he was up, protesting. His voice sounded as hollow as he felt after
the ringing tones of the younger man. "I'm overdue already on
schedule, and by all rights—"
Bailey cut him off, nodding to Hennings. "Thank you, Colonel. We'll
begin loading at once, while Control works out your tapes. All right,
dismissed!" Then finally he turned to Murdock. "Thanks, Tom. I'll
record your offer, but there's no time for us to unload your ship first.
Afraid you're grounded for the storm."
He went out quickly, with Hennings following jauntily at his heels.

The others were beginning to leave, grumbling with a certain

admiration at Hennings' jumping the gun on them. Murdock trailed
along, since there was no chance for him to change the orders now.
He wondered what excuse would have been used if he'd been first to
volunteer and if his ship had been empty. The choice of pilot had
probably been made before the token request for volunteers, and he
was certain that his name hadn't been considered.
The storm seemed to have let up when he started across the field,
but it was only a lull. Before he could reach the shelter of the weather
shack, it began pelting down again, harder than ever. He stopped
inside the door to shake off some of the wetness. Collins was intently
studying one of the radar screens where a remote pickup was
showing conditions, alternately working a calculator and yelling into a
phone. He looked up, made a desperate motion with his fingers for a
cigarette, and went back to the phone.
Murdock shoved a lighted smoke toward him, then pulled a stool up
to the window where he could watch the field. By rights, he should be
heading back to his farm, to do what he could there; but he had no
intention of leaving before the take-off. Lifting a ship in this weather
was mostly theory. It had been done once on the Island, but the big
ships were still too unstable to make it anything but a desperate
emergency measure. He'd discussed it with the pilot after that trip,
and he'd spent a lot of time trying to work out a method in case he
had to try it, but Hennings had his sympathy now. It took more than
courage and confidence to handle this situation.
He studied the storm, trying to get the feel of it. During his first two
years back here, he'd spent a lot of his free time flying a light plane,
and some of the weather had been fairly bad. It gave him some idea
of what Hennings had to face; he wondered whether the younger pilot
realized what was coming.
Sodium lights were blazing on the field, he saw, clustered about
Hennings' Jennilee, and men were slipping and sliding around in the
mud, getting her ready and loading the filter packs. Two men were
being run up on a lift to the crew entrance; Hennings carried both a
co-pilot and a radio man, though many of the pilots now used only a
single crewman.
Collins looked up from the phone. "Fifteen minutes to zero," he
reported.
Murdock grunted in surprise. He'd expected the take-off to be two
hours later, on the next swing of the station. It must mean that orders
for loading the ship had been given before Bailey came into Briefing.
It confirmed his suspicion that the pilot had been picked in advance.
A few minutes later, Hennings appeared, marching across the field
toward the lift in the middle of a small group. Several of them rode up
with him. As the lift began creaking backward, the pilot stood poised
in the lock, grinning for the photographers. Naturally, the press had
been tipped off; the service had learned long before that maximum
publicity helped in getting the fattest possible appropriations.
When the lock was finally sealed and the field cleared, Murdock bent
over the counter to study the radar screens. The storm was
apparently erratic, from the hazy configurations he could see. Zero
would be a poor choice for the take-off, though, from what he could
estimate. Hennings would be smarter to delay and make manual
corrections on his tape.
Then the klaxon went on, signalling the take-off. The last man on the
field was darting for cover. From the blast pit, a dull, sickly red began
to shine as the rockets were started. Murdock swore. The fool was
taking off on schedule, trusting to his tapes!
The smoky red exhaust ran up the spectrum to blue, and the ship
began to tremble faintly. The sound rose to crescendo. Now the
Jennilee started to lift. Wind hit it, throwing it toward the side of the
pit. The wings of the top stage caught most of the force, and the
whole ship was tilting—the worst thing that could happen. They
should have swivelled the ship around to put the wings parallel to
most of the storm, instead of bucking it.
Murdock heard Collins' breath catch harshly, but suddenly the worst
danger was over. A lull for a second or so gave Hennings his chance.
He was at least riding his controls over the automatics. The blast
deflection vanes shot the blue flame sidewise, and the ship shifted its
bottom, righting itself. It was beginning to make its real climb now.
The wings near the top literally vibrated like the arms of a tuning fork,
and the blast trail was ragged. Yet she rose, her blast roar rising and
falling as the wind altered, blowing some of the sound away from the
watchers.
Now the Doppler effect began to be noticeable, and the sound
dropped in pitch as the Jennilee fought her way up. The overcast of
scudding clouds hid all but the bright anger of the exhaust.
Murdock turned with the technician to another radar screen. Unlike
those in Control, it wasn't set properly to catch the ship, but a hazy
figure showed in one edge. "Right into some of the nastiest stuff
blowing!" Collins swore.

CHAPTER II
He was right. The timing had been as bad as possible. The blob of
light on the screen was obviously being buffeted about. Something
seemed to hit the top and jerk it.
The screen went blank, then lighted again. Collins had shifted his
connections, to patch into the signal Control was watching. The blip
of the Jennilee was now dead center, trying to tilt into a normal
synergy curve. "Take it up, damn it!" Murdock swore hotly. This was
no time to swing around the Earth until after the ship was above the
storm. The tape for the automatic pilot should have been cut for a
high first ascension. If Hennings was panicking and overriding it back
to the familiar orbit....
As if the pilot heard him, the blip began rising again. It twisted and
bucked. Something seemed to separate from it. There was a
scattering of tiny white dots on the screen, drifting behind the ship.
Murdock couldn't figure them. Then he forgot them as the first stage
let go and began falling backward from the ship, heading on its great
arc toward the ocean. Recovery would be rough. Now the second
stage blasted out. And finally, the ship was above the storm and could
begin to track toward its goal.
Abruptly the speaker in the corner snapped into life, and Hennings'
voice sounded from it. "Jennilee to Base. Cancel the harps and
haloes! We're in the clear!"
Collins snapped his hand down against a switch, killing the speaker.
"Hotshot!" he said thickly, and yet there was a touch of admiration in
his voice. "Ten years ago, they couldn't build ships to take what he
gave it. So that makes him a tin god on wheels. Got a cigarette,
Tommy?"
Murdock handed him the package and picked up the slicker again.
He'd seen enough. The ship should have no further trouble, except
for minor orbital corrections, well within the pilot's ability. For that
matter, while Collins' statement was true enough, Hennings deserved
a lot of the credit. And if he had to boast a little—well, maybe he
deserved credit for the ability to snap back to normal after the
pounding his body and nerves must have taken.

In the recreation hall, some of the pilots were busy exaggerating the
dangers of the take-off for the newsmen, making it sound as if no
parallel feat had been performed in all history. Murdock found a
phone where he had some privacy and put through a call to let Pete
and Sheila know when he'd be back—and that he was returning
without a load. They'd already heard the news, however. He cut the
call short and went out across the soggy field, cursing as his shoes
filled with water. From the auditorium of the school, he could hear the
band practicing; he wondered for a moment whether the drumbeat
could make the cadets feel like heroes as they moved through mud
with shoes that squished at every step. It had no such lifting effect on
him.
The parking lot beyond the drill grounds was almost deserted, and his
big truck seemed to huddle into the wind like a lonely old bull buffalo.
He started the turbine and opened the cab heater, kicking off his
sodden shoes. The dampness in the air brought out the smell of
refuse and pigs from the rear, but he was used to it; anyhow, it was
better than the machine-human-chemical stench of the space station.
Driving took most of his attention. The truck showed little wind-sway
and the roads were nearly deserted, but vision was limited and the
windshield kept steaming up, in spite of the silicone coating. He
crawled along, grumbling to himself at the allocation of money for
tourist superhighways at the expense of the back roads.
A little ways beyond the base, he was in farm country. It was totally
unlike the picture of things he'd had originally. He'd expected only
palm trees and citrus groves in Florida, though he'd known vaguely
that it was one of the major cattle-producing states. This part wasn't
exactly like the Iowa section where he'd grown up, but it wasn't so
different, either.
Pete Crane had introduced him to it. At the time, Pete was retiring
after twenty years of service and looking for something to do. He'd
found a small farm twenty miles from Base and had approached
Murdock with the hope of getting the station garbage for food for the
hogs he planned to buy. The contractor who took care of the Base
garbage wouldn't touch the dehydrated, slightly scorched refuse, and
disposal had always been a problem.
They ended up as partners, with permanent rights to all the station
wastes. Pete's sister, Sheila, joined them to keep house for them. It
beat living in hotels and offered the first hope for the future Murdock
had. Unless his application for Moon service was accepted—which
seemed unlikely, since he was already at the age limit of thirty-five—
he had no other plans for his own compulsory twenty-year retirement.
The farm also gave some purpose to his job as garbage collector for
the station.
For two years, everything went well. Maybe they grew over-confident
then. They sank everything into new buildings and more livestock.
When the neighboring farm suddenly became available, they used all
their credit in swinging the mortgage, leaving no margin for trouble.
And trouble came when Pete was caught in front of a tractor that
somehow slipped into gear; he was hospitalized for five weeks, and
his medical insurance was only enough for a fraction of the cost.
Now, with Hulda cancelling the critically necessary trip to the
station....

The truck bumped over the last half mile and into the farm-yard.
Murdock parked it near the front door and jumped out. He let out a
yell and made a bee-line for the kerosene heater, trying to get his feet
warm on the floor near it. The house was better built than many in
Florida, but that wasn't saying much. Even with the heater going, it
was probably warmer in their new pig sty.
Sheila came through the dining room from the kitchen, spotted his
wet feet, and darted for his bedroom. In a second she was back with
dry clothes. "Change in here where it's warm. I'll have lunch ready in
a couple of minutes," she told him, holding her face up for a kiss.
Sheila wasn't a beautiful woman and apparently didn't care.
Murdock's mother would probably have called her plain good looks
"wholesome," and referred to her slightly overweight body as
"healthy." He only knew that she looked good to him, enough shorter
to be comfortable, eyes pleasantly blue, and hair some shade of
brown that seemed to fit her.
He pulled her to him snugly, but she wriggled away after a brief kiss.
"Pete's in town, trying to get help. He'll be back any minute," she
warned him.
He grinned and let her go. They'd gone through the romantic binge of
discovering each other long enough ago to be comfortable with each
other now, except for the occasional arguments when she didn't want
to wait. Mostly, though, she had accepted their agreement. In eight
more months he'd be thirty-six and too old for assignment on the
Moon; if he didn't make that, they'd get married. But he had no
intention of leaving her tied to him if he did leave, since the chance of
taking her along was almost nil. Pete had backed him up on his
decision, too.
He slipped into coveralls and dry boots and went out to the dining
room, where a hot meal was waiting. At least their credit was good at
the local grocery between paydays. He filled her in on what had
happened while they ate. At the hour mark, he switched on the
television to the news. It was filled with the station emergency and
rescue, of course. Most of it seemed to be devoted to pictures of
Hennings entering the ship and a highly colored account of the flight.
But at least he learned that the flight had been completed. It made
good publicity for the service. A sound track of a band playing the
Heroes' March had been spliced into the movies. Maybe that was
good publicity, too. He had to admit that Hennings fitted the music
better than he could have done.
For a moment, the racket of the wind outside died, and another sound
reached his ears. The hogs knew it was past feeding time and were
kicking up a fuss. Murdock grimaced. He shoved away from the table,
feeling almost guilty at having stuffed himself, and dug rain clothes
out of the back closet. He hated going out in the weather again, but
the animals had to be pacified.
They heard him coming and set up more of a racket. He bent against
the wind and made a dash for it, getting his feet wet again in a
puddle. But the inside of the building was warmer than the house, as
he had expected. He lifted the cover of the mash cooker and began
ladling out the food into the troughs. His pail was scraping the bottom
of the cooker, while the sleek Poland China hogs fought and shoved
toward the spot where he was emptying it. They'd been on half
rations since yesterday, and they were obviously hungry.
He stopped when he had used half of what was in the cooker and
headed for the next building. On the way, he paused for a futile look
in the big storage shed, but he knew the answer. Pete had used the
last bag of grain in cooking the day's food. They'd exhausted the last
of the waste from the station earlier and had to fall back on the
precious commercial feed usually only used as a supplement. Damn
Greta and double damn Hulda! If the weekly predictions had been
right, he could have wangled clearance for a flight ahead of schedule,
before the storms, and they wouldn't be in this mess.
It was worse in the brooder house. The sows seemed to know that
milk for their sucklings depended on their feeding. They received a
somewhat larger portion, but it disappeared from the troughs as he
watched. The animals fought for the last scraps and then began
rushing about looking for more. They were smart enough to know he
was the source of it, and they stared at him, expressing their
demands in eloquent hog language. They weren't like other animals.
Cows were too stupid to realize they'd been gypped, sheep were
always yelling even when things went well. But hogs could pretty
nearly swear in English when they felt robbed, as these did. Even the
sucklings were squealing unhappily in sympathy with their mothers.

Murdock heard the door open behind him and turned to see Pete
coming in, drenched to the skin. He looked worn out, and his back
was still stiff from the accident, though he'd made a fine recovery. "Hi,
Tom. Sis told me what happened at the field. Good thing, too. This
stuff's no good for flights. How long till it clears?"
"Five days!" Murdock told him, and saw the older man flinch. The
hogs might not starve to death in that time, but they'd suffer, as well
as losing weight that would be hard to put back. He had no idea of
how it would affect the milk supply for the little pigs, and he didn't
want to guess.
They left the squealing hogs and slogged back to the house to
change before Pete would report on his luck in town. It seemed to be
all bad. They could get a loan against the mature hogs or they could
sell some, but with the week-end coming up they would have to wait
for money until they would no longer need it. Their credit at the only
feed and grain store was used up.
Murdock frowned at that. "You mean Barr wouldn't let us have
enough to carry us over in an emergency like this? After all our
business with him?"
"Barr's gone north on some business," Pete reported. "His brother-in-
law's running things. Claims he can't take the responsibility. Offered
to lend me twenty bucks himself if I needed it, but no credit from the
store. And he can't locate Barr. Darn it, if I hadn't had to get in front of
that tractor—"
"If!" Sheila snorted. "If I hadn't insisted you two pay the hospital in full,
or if I hadn't splurged on spring clothes.... How much can we get for
my car?"
Pete shrugged. "About half enough, but not till maybe Tuesday or
Wednesday, after title transfer. I already asked at Circle Chevy. How