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PM 3 Pert - CPM SS
PM 3 Pert - CPM SS
A
15
B
6
C E
D
A D E
B F
F A B
✔
C
X G
C F8 M
12 7 N
9
J
13
Critical Path Method: Example
Path Duration
ADGK 10 + 12 + 20 + 6 = 48 days
ADHL 10 + 12 + 3 + 18 = 43 days
ADIL 10 + 4 + 9 + 18 = 41 days
BIL 9 + 9 + 18 = 36 days
CJN 12 + 13 + 9 = 34 days
CJML 12 + 13 + 7 + 18 = 50 days
CFIL 12 + 8 + 9 + 18 = 47 days
Finding Critical Path
To find critical path two series of computations
are used, namely Forward pass computation &
Backward pass computation.
Forward pass computation:- This is a method of
computation of starting time of events. The computation begins
from the initial event and moves towards the final event. This
series of computation is done to arrive at the Earliest Start Time
(TE) of all the events.
• Left to right (start to finish)
• Determines Early Start (ES)
• ES(previous event) + duration = TE
Finding Critical Path
A B C
1 2 3 4
7 days 3 days 10 days
TE = 0 TE = 7 TE = 10 TE = 20
A B C
1 7 days
2 3 4
3 days 10 days
Slack time & critical path
Events 1,3,6,7 & 8 have zero slack. The path connecting
these events is the critical path.
For a better control of project implementation and
effective resource allocation, a detailed study of non-
critical activities with regard to the 'free time' available is
important. The free time available for the activity is known
as float. This study of free time is known as Activity
Float Analysis.
Float of an activity represents the excess of available
time over its duration. Float, therefore, is the leeway
available to the project planner for his scheduling
activity.
CPM – Activity Float Analysis
Types of floats:-
Float is mainly of two types: total float and free float. All
activities lying on the non-critical paths have total float and
some of them may also have free float. The total float and
free float have following significance.
Total float:- Total float signifies the maximum delay that can
be permitted in the completion of the activity without affecting
the project completion time. Total float can be interpreted in
two ways :
i) The maximum time available to delay the commencement of
an activity.
ii) The maximum expansion in the duration of the activity.
If total float is used up in an activity, that activity and
subsequent activities in the chain become critical
CPM – Activity Float Analysis – Total
float
Total float can be obtained as under:
t ij
i j
(TL)i (TE)j
= (TE)j – (TE)i - t ij
CPM– Activity Float Analysis – Independent float
» Independent float : Sometimes, it may be desirable to know
what spare time is present in an activity if it started as late as
possible and finished as early as possible. This characteristic
is known as independent float.
» Independent float , therefore, the amount of time an activity
can be delayed when all preceding activities are completed as
late as possible and all succeeding activities are completed
as early as possible.
» Independent float neither affects the float of preceding
activitirs nor that of the succeeding activies
Independent float = Earliest occurance time of the successding event
minus
Latest occurrence time of the preceding event
minus
Duration of the activity
= (TE)j – (TL)i - t ij
Finding Critical Path-Ex
For the following diagram find out the Critical Path & Project duration
using forward pass & backward pass:-
C
2 4
6
A G
3 9
D
7
1
B
4
E H K 8
3 6 11
7 11
2
F I J
7 2
7
5
Finding Critical Path
TE= 3 T E= 9
C
2 4
6
A G
3 9
T E= 0 D
4
1
TE= 35
B TE= 13
4
E H K 8
3 6 11
7 11
2
TE= 4 TE= 24
F I J
7 2
7
5
TE= 11
Finding Critical Path
T E= 3 T E= 9
TL= 20 TL= 26
C
2 4
6
TE= 0 A G
3 9
TL= 0 D
7 TE= 35
1 TE= 13
B TL= 13 TL= 35
4
E H K 8
3 6 11
7 11
2
TE= 4 TE= 24
F I J
7 2 TL= 24
TL= 4 7
5
TE= 11
TL= 11
Activity ij (TL)j (TE)i T ij Total float = (TL)j – (TE)i – t ij
B 4 0 4 (4–0–4)=0
E 13 4 2 ( 13 – 4 – 2 ) = 7
F 11 4 7 ( 11 – 4 – 7 ) = 0
I 13 11 2 ( 13 – 11 – 2 ) = 0
H 24 13 11 ( 24 – 13 – 11) = 0
J 24 11 7 ( 24 – 11 – 7 ) = 6
K 35 24 11 ( 35 – 24 – 11 ) = 0
T E= 3 T E= 9
TL= 20 TL= 26
C
2 4
6
TE= 0 A G
3 9
TL= 0 D
7 TE= 35
1 TE= 13
B TL= 13 TL= 35
4
E H K 8
3 6 11
7 11
2
TE= 4 TE= 24
F I J
7 2 TL= 24
TL= 4 7
5
TE= 11
TL= 11
PERT – Programme Evaluation and Review
Technique:
One major difference between PERT and CPM is the
former's adaptability for the projects where high digree of
uncertainty prevails and activity times during performance
are expected to vary considerably for certain activities.
The concept of multiple times (three times estimates) was
evolved in PERT to reduce the incedence of uncertainty
in project planning. The are :-
a) Optimistic time (to) : It is the shortest possible time in
which an activity can be completed under ideal conditions.
In arriving at the optimum time estimate, it is assumed that
every thing is favorable in completing the activity in the
shortest possible time.
PERT – Programme Evaluation and Review
Technique:
b) Pessimistic time (tp): It is the maximum possible time that it
would take to complete an activity under worst conditions. In
arriving at the pessimistic time estimate, it is assumed
that every thing is unfavorable for completing the activity in
time and every possible delay and difficult situation is
encountered.
c) Most likely time (tm): It is between optimistic and
pessimistic time estimates. It is the time in which an activity can
be completed under normal conditions. I arriving at the most
likely time, it is assumed that conditions are neither favourable
nor unfavourable, but normal.
The supervisor or the foreman who is in direct charge of an activity
is asked to estimate the three time estimates taking into account,
favorable, unfavorable and normal conditions. In assuming
unfavorable conditions, extremely unfavorable situations such as
earthquake, floods, fires, labour strikes etc., are excluded.
PERT – Programme Evaluation and Review
Technique:
PERT arrives at the expected time (te) for an activity , taking into
account the three time estimates to, tp, tm .
PERT assumes that the optimistic time (to), the pessimistic time (tp)
are equally likely to occur while the most likely time [tm] is four
times more likely to occurrthan the other two ( to & tp ). Hence for
arriving at the expected time (te) equal weights are assigned to to &
tp while weight of tm is taken as 4 times that of t o and tp
Therefore the formula to calculate (te) is :
t o + 4 t m + tp
te =
6
PERT – Programme Evaluation and Review
Technique:
Probability of occurance of
activity time
to tm te tp
Activity time
PERT – Programme Evaluation and Review
Technique:
After having arrived at the expected time (te) for each activity, the
critical path is found out by making forward-pass and backward-
pass computation, calculating the Earliest Start Time (TE) and
the Latest Finish Time (TL) of all the events, finding the slack of
events and connecting the events with zero slack.
Ex.:
PERT – Programme Evaluation and
Review Technique:
There are three basic differences between a PERT
network and CPM network.
1. PERT is event oriented while CPM is activity oriented – PERT
prepares network from events while CPM builds it from
activities.
2. PERT provides for an allowance for uncertainty while CPM
does not - PERT makes three time estimates for each activity
while CPM makes one time estimate.
3. Activity times in CPM technique are related to costs while it is
not so in PERT since it is event oriented.
PERT : VARIANCE and STANDARD DEVIATION
Variation in the Activity Times:
Consider the following two time estimates:
Activi Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Expected
ty Time Time Time Time
A 2 3 4 3
B 1 2 9 3
Optimistic Time and Pessimistic Time is more for activity B than activity A
2
T(p) –t(o) T(p) –t(o)
Standard deviation () = =
6 6
PERT : VARIANCE and STANDARD DEVIATION
Use of variance/standard deviation of project
length for managerial decision
A 8 10 12
B 5 8 11
C 4 14 24
D 3 7 11
E 1 6 11
F 7 8 9
TE = 10
TL = 10
TE = 0 2
A C TE = 25
TL = 0 D
1 TL = 25
F
4 5
B
E TE = 17
3 TL = 17
TE = 8
TL = 11
PERT : VARIANCE and STANDARD DEVIATION
Use of variance/standard deviation of project
length for managerial decision
A 8 10 12 10 0.44
B 5 8 11 8 1.00
C 4 14 24 14 11.11
D 3 7 11 7 1.78
E 1 6 11 6 2.78
F 7 8 9 8 0.11
PERT : VARIANCE and STANDARD DEVIATION
Use of variance/standard deviation of project
length for managerial decision
A 8 10 12 10 0.44 0.67
B 5 8 11 8 1.00 1.00
C 4 14 24 14 11.11 3.33
D 3 7 11 7 1.78 1.33
E 1 6 11 6 2.78 1.67
F 7 8 9 8 0.11 0.33
PERT : VARIANCE and STANDARD DEVIATION
Use of variance/standard deviation of project
length for managerial decision