yi-at.xi.

pt Ei
Yi t.fi ✗ 1- Pzxiz
✗ ii. 1- Ei

Cia 1 ,
- - -

sh )

f- Yi

!
Fd

't :| [ In:|
×"

I " -1k¥
.

✗
, ,

p.fi#-:j+f&:| n.se En
te tu t →
.
.

n :* :
,
'
hxl
-1B¥ #
Nxt MXZ
1=1 -

✗ + fix
f
t
Ith
→
2×1
h
t
I hxi
¥ t
DX /

(F)
'

g- [ :]
✗ × -

+
e.
-

Pz
¥= ✗ * +
E
t.tt ↳
ha 3×1 hx )
nxl }
.

=L Foz.fi )
-

where
✗ ⇐ [¥
. 8-
 In this case !

W is ✗

EC.se/x)--Oci.sv--q
exogenity assumption
:

E- CET E- CECE / xD = ECO 3=0

Lw
0
'

ciisv = E

/ xD
' "
E( X' E) =ECE( ✗ E
.

"
=E( ✗ -

ECEIXD
To
"
=
ECX - O
)

Eco>
i.e., the expected value of the conditional expected value =

of V given W is the same as the expected value of V =D

ciii >
Recall : LZÉ :

V ,
W are r vectors
✓ =¥E
,

EEEEVIW )) ECX "E)=ECE( HE / xD

Ecu ) =

x2 ECEIXD
"
=E( -

To
=
E- ( ¥-0)
= Eco>

=D
 y =
✗8 + E

mm

Recall Ias =
[✗
'

✗
'

5✗
'

y
Elias ) (( 5¥ )
'

= E- ✗ ✗

'
E- ( ( ✗
'
5 X' ( ✗ 8- +
ED
=
✗

E ((✗ 51.x ! × 's )

'

= ✗ .

8 + Cx ×

' '

= E ( 8+1×1×5 ✗ E)
'
✗J ✗
' '

=
✗ + Efx E)
ECE
'
✗ 5 × 's 1 xD
=
✗ +
' '

=
8 + E- Mix 5 × .EC El xD
¥ ' thus
✗5 X'
'

8+ E C Cx
=

☒ g.+ E
.

= Cos =
8 to =
8 unbiased
 /

[1×1×2]
-

✗
.

V1 "× '
na
nos n -5=9 ECE
-

)=O

,¥¥ :[¥:] .e=[¥:&

)=[¥f±%
" "

.ec#a=ohX1&x?--Ei--sn.EcxZ'sj--o3xn
 .

.
*
Jcb > =Ab=[ } ;] .[ %)
=

[ zbi-b-Jficbi.by
3bitzbgfzcb.ba )
:&
0%1=-1 :÷ %-) 3¥

=L: :] -

A
 fibs = b' Ab

viii. 51 JÉÉ] .

in

£3b b)
2b , tbz
= [b ,
b
, -12
1×2
2×1

zbi-b.bz/-3bibat2bi- zb?-4b.bz-2bi=fcb,ba
=

¥÷=(¥÷
¥# )
=

④ %)
+

tb , -14bar
= ¢
b. tb ,
( b. + b.) '

4.ci :X :)
-

-
 of
If (b) =

H%#
i:÷÷
-

'
g Cb Cbd
-

=¥÷j
[ ¥-÷-j
÷÷ .

=ñg*:÷
f. ÷)
-

g. .
 g
'
= b c b

gtgf-i.is↳#.Y.-J--a-gm.(:%db-.)--a.g*.Ig--a.g
g- ÷
:
.
= ✗ (b
'
"

Cbi
.

cc

-
'
+

at d) b
cab

"

-
 ,
ci , ECE
)=[%]n× ,

( :?) i
ECEIÉE
Elsie )
.

Evan )
ECEI ) =
O ti -1
-

,
-
.
-

Gvcx g) tea
)Ecy]
Ecxsy } cii ) ECE ? )=VarcEi)tEcqI
=
,

no , Minna ¥ If
= 82

[ ; :] ] of ?% ;)
since
[
e.
g. or
• so -

0010
Sino coso
0 I 00

[ ]=[ ¥
Ciii ) Vance aired Guess .eu
'
- -

Vorce ;) =p
°
•

> =

ii.
.
' '
'

:
-
: '

n
f i = 1
,
-
-

in
" CE " ED
.

rain , 02

6vcsi.Ej-OV-i-tjECEi.gs
.

0
-
-
. n

ECEJ Ecsi > )

g) Gvcsi +
=

0+0.0=0 ,
=

☒ ¥ To
 E ~ N ( 0,022N
)

{ =
c#
DE

E- (G) Etc DES

DE¥÷
= -1 =
c + = ( +D. 0 =c

Varig Varc DE )
=
) =D Varg D ' =D ?
5-
- '
In D D. In
' '

o 0 D D. D
.

= =
-

- -

d-
constant WD ¥
= F. In

{ ~NfE , )
its

.
 -

Ecg }) =
E[ cc + Deice DEJ
=
E ( (d + 8D
'
) cc + Ds > ]

( E)
'
'
=
E c c -1 C DE + E' Dlc + E 'D'D
I
-

constant
In

EDÉ
'
= c' [ 1- c- D + •

+ Else 's )
: ¥ .

= C'c- 1- Ecs 's

)

ic-EC.2.IE?7=c'c-.&. Egi3- c'c-.n.o- 52-

=

results in .
.
3. 6)