Ecological Risk Evaluation Based on GIS and
Spatial Geo-Statistics Method
Mingyong Li1* Qinghua Yang2 Jun Du1 Wei Luo1
1
Faculty of Earth Sciences, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
2
College of Resource and Environmental Science, Guangxi Normal University, Guilin, China
*
Corresponding author: rockleecom@yahoo.com.cn
Abstract—Ecological Risk (ER) refers to the possibility of
reduction for its partial health, productivity, economic value
and aesthetic value when normal functions of whole landscape
have been intimidated by external environment. Ecological
risk assessment is a key measure of ecological environment
management. Assessing the ecological risk at regional scale has
practical significance in strengthening ecosystem management
and regional ecological safety. In this paper, the main land use
information comes from satellite remote sensing TM image in
2000 and 2005, GIS technology is the data integration analysis
platform, and Wuhan city was selected for a case study. This
article analyzed the landscape ecological characteristics of
Wuhan, based on the landscape structure, the authors brought
forward indexes and formulas to measure landscape damage
degree and risk value of ecosystem. The system sampling
method was used to make it a spatial variance, and the
semi-variagram analysis and block Kriging were conducted to
explore the spatial characteristics and distribution of
landscape ecological risk in the study area. The results
indicated that the ecological risk in the study area tends to
extend and three belt areas with high ecological risk were
formed in this region. The spatial distribution of ecological
risk becomes more uneven. The level of ecological risk study
area is divided into three levels: the majority of the vegetation
and the waters belong to low ecological risk, urban built-up
area and near the edge belong to moderate ecological risk and
relatively high risk region. Spatial distribution areas of the
various levels have taken place in a certain degree of change in
5 years.
Keywords-land use change; ecological risk; spatial
geo-statistics; Kriging; geological information system (GIS)
I. INTRODUCTION
Regional ecological risk assessment is to describe and
assess disadvantage influence possibility and size of regional
environmental pollution, human activities or natural
disasters on ecological system and its components at the
regional scale [1]. The development process of ecological
risk assessment research come through from the
environmental risk to ecological risk and then to regional
ecological risk assessment, the risk source extend to the
multi-risk source from a single risk source, the risk receptor
run to multiple receptors from single receptor, the evaluation
scope enlarge to the regional landscape level from local [2].
Regional ecological risk assessment methods are mainly the
United States ecological risk assessment of the "three-step
method", namely issues, analysis and risk characterization
[3]; the threshold determination method; the based
sustainable development of ecological risk assessment
methods and the ecological risk assessment methods
combination of qualitative and quantitative [4,5]; there are
some methods to evaluate regional ecological risk from the
land use or landscape structure [6,7]. The influence of
different land use patterns and intensity on ecological has
regional and cumulative features, and can be visually
reflected in the ecosystem structure and composition. There
exist different in capacity of influence of different land use
type on regional eco-environment.
It is necessary to present the data in the form of raster
map by spatial interpolation techniques to depict the regional
geochemical distribution ecological risk. These raster maps,
mostly as base maps, also play an important role in
classifying of ecological risk. For interpolation purpose,
different methods include distance-weighted averages, trend
surfaces, splines and other technique, were applied [8-10].
Among these procedures, one alternative method which is
known as Kriging presented by D.G. Krige, is firmly
categorized into the theory of regionalized variables, and is
widely applied for interpolation.
This study selected Kriging technique for interpolating
land use data, since it gives a smoothed surface with
considering spatial variance of data, which is essential for
mapping work in an area, like Wuhan. The main objective of
the present study was to conduct geo-statistical analysis with
land use change data, and to evaluate validation of block
Kriging method for mapping purpose of ecological risk
based on land use data in Wuhan. It aims to provide
quantitative decision-making basis and theoretical support
for the ecological environment management.
II. DATA PREPARATION
This thesis adopted satellite remote sensing TM image in
2000 and 2005 as main data source. TM images selected
band 4, 3, 2 to conduct false color composite. All the remote
sensing images have been enhanced, corrected, mosaic and
other treatment. Land use information was obtained by using
remote sensing interpretation processing. Image
enhancement techniques, were applied to manipulate data in
order that the information content of the images may be
improved and are readily available for visual interpretation.
To locate and refer objects exactly as they are located on the
ground, images have been geo-referenced based on a set of
ground control points using the first order polynomial
transformation and nearest neighbor re-sampling method
before interpretation. Ground control points were derived
from 1:50000 topographic maps of the area. According to
images features, create different interpretation signs of
land-use types and make human-computer interaction
Figure 1. The land use of Wuhan in 2000
III. MODELING ECOLOGICAL RISK BASED ON LAND USE
CHANGE
A. Evaluation Index Constitution for Ecological Risk
In order to establish the experience connection between
land use pattern and regional ecological risk, the evaluation
index was constituted by using area specific gravity of
different land use. It was used to describe relative size for
synthetic ER in sampled areas, and it will transform spatial
pattern of landscape into ER variable of extensity through
using spatial sampling. The expression of ER index was
given as follows:
n method for generating the output surface. The spatial
Ai Ri
ER = ∑ (1)
i =1 SA
Where ER is index of ecological risk, n is the number of land
use type, Ai is total area of i type of land use in the sampled areas,
Ri is parameter of ER intensity reflected by type of land use, SA is
total area of intensity of soil erosion in sampled areas.
The intensity parameter of ER is given by using analytic
hierarchy process (AHP). It is difficult to estimate the degree
of effect because of more classifications of land use. This
paper adopts three grade method of AHP and
semi-quantitative evaluation of expert judgment to ascertain
the corresponding values of ER. The weight parameter of
ER for different landscape patterns is that farmland is 0.32,
forestland is 0.12, sparse forestland is 0.15, shrubbery is
0.16, orchard is 0.25, meadow is 0.16, water body is 0.53,
towns and residential land is 0.72, industrial lands is 0.95,
unused land is 0.82.
B. Spatial Data Sampling
This research adopted 1×1km square as a sample plot to
make spatiality based on average patch area of Wuhan, and
interpretation. Finally to completed the classification
mapping of land use in 2000 and 2005. The data format was
Coverage, Geographical projection was equal area for
cutting conic projection (Albers), the central meridian was
105 ° E, two standard parallels were 25 ° N and 47 ° N
respectively, the ellipsoid was KRASOVSKY, coordinates
origin (0, 0). The land of study area was divided into ten
types based on regulation for land use investigation and
actual situation of land use (Fig.1; Fig.2), i.e. plantation,
denseness woodland, woodland, bush, sparseness woodland,
orchard, meadow, water, residential, mining land, unused
land.
Figure 2. The land use of Wuhan in 2005
the research area was divided into 8845 sample plots by
using equidistance system sampling method. Every sample
plot which used ER index to calculate synthetic value of ER
was viewed as the ecological risk level for central of
sampled land.
C. Spatial Geo-Statistics Method
1) Kriging introduction
Kriging is an advanced geo-statistical procedure that
generates an estimated surface from a scattered set of points
with z values. Kriging involves an interactive investigation
of the spatial behavior of the phenomenon represented by
the z values before the user selects the best estimation
variation is quantified by the semi-variation. The
semi-variation is estimated by the sample semi-variation
which is computed from the input point data set. The value
of the sample semi-variation for a separation distance of h
(referred to as the lag) is the average squared difference in z
value between pairs of input sample points separated by h.
2) Calculation Procedure of Kriging
The Kriging procedure is carried out in two steps: (1) to
calculate the semi-variation and to model the spatial
structure of the regionalized variable (in the case study, the
variables were ER); (2) to predict the values at unmeasured
sites using fitted model for the spatial structure. The
equation for semi-variation calculation is:
1 N ( h)
γ ( h) = ∑ [ Z ( xi ) − Z ( xi + h)]2
2 N (h) i =1
(2)
where γ(h) was the value of semi-variation, Z(xi) was the
logarithmic value of measured ER at spatial location xi, and N(h)
was the number of pairs with separation distance h.
 Kriging minimizes the error produced by the differences
in the fit of the spatial continuity to each local neighborhood
[11]. In so doing, it produces a smooth surface. By fitting a
smooth model of spatial variability to the sample data and by
minimizing the error of the fit to the sample data, Kriging
tends to underestimate low values and overestimate large
values [11]. Kriging provides statistically optimal and
unbiased prediction and estimates of the errors of
interpolation [12,13], namely, E[Z*(x) − Z(x)] = 0, and
var[Z*(x) − Z(x)] = minimum.
3) Parameters of Semi-variation
As previously stated, the semi-variation depicts the
spatial autocorrelation of the measured sample points.
Because of a basic principle of geography (things that are
closer are more alike), measured points that are close will
generally have a smaller difference squared than those
farther apart. Once each pair of locations is plotted (after
being binned), a model is fit through them. These parameters
include the nugget value C0, sill (C0 + C), and range value
h. (Fig.3)
a) The range and sill: When you look at the model of a
semi-variation, you will notice that at a certain distance, the
model levels out. The distance where the model first flattens
out is known as the range. Sample locations separated by
distances closer than the range are spatially correlated,
whereas locations farther apart than the range are not. The
value at which the semi-variation model attains the range
(the value on the y-axis) is called the sill. The partial sill is
the sill minus the nugget.
b) The nugget: Theoretically, at zero separation
distance, the semi-variation value is zero. However, at an
infinitely small separation distance, the semi-variation often
exhibits a nugget effect, which is some value greater than
zero. If the semi-variation model intercepts the y-axis at 2,
then the nugget is 2. The nugget effect can be attributed to
measurement errors or spatial sources of variation at
distances smaller than the sampling interval (or both).
Measurement error occurs because of the error inherent in
measuring devices. Natural phenomena can vary spatially
over a range of scales. Variation at microscales smaller than
the sampling distances will appear as part of the nugget
effect. Before collecting data, it is important to gain some
understanding of the scales of spatial variation that you are
interested in.
D. Making a Prediction
Kriging weights come from a semi-variation that was
developed by looking at the spatial nature of the data.
TABLE I. LAND USE CHANGE FROM 2000 AND 2005
Land Use 2000
Types Area (kha) Proportion Area (kha)
Plantation 525.04 61.38 518.38
Woodland 79.32 9.36 79.26
Meadaw 6.99 0.82 7.30
Water 170.51 20.12 172.55
Prediction was made using the spatial information in the
data to compute distances and model the spatial
autocorrelation. To create a continuous surface of the
phenomenon, predictions are made for each location (cell
centers) in the study area based on the semi-variation and the
spatial arrangement of measured values that are nearby.
Autocorrelation Threshold Value
Semi-
variation
r£¨h£© Structure Variation
C1
Semi-variation
sill C1 + C0
Nugget Variation
C0
Interval Distance£¨h£©
Figure 3. The classical sketch map of semi-variation
IV. GEO-STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ECOLOGICAL RISK
A. Dynamic Change of Land Use from 2000 to 2005
Land use change includes area change of land type,
spatial distribution change and land quality change. The area
change of land utilization type reflects the total situation of
land use change and the structure change of land use. With
the help of remote sensing and the GIS technology, by
obtaining the land use chart of Wuhan in different time and
analyzing spatial analysis and the statistical analysis for land
use change, result shown in Table I.
As seen in Table I, plantation and water was major type
of land use, plantation contributes 61.38% and 60.59% of
the total area in 2000 and in 2005 respectively, the area of
plantation decrease by 6.66 kha, and its proportion decrease
by 0.79%.The area of woodland reduced by 0.06 kha, its net
change rate was -1.28%. The meadow increased obviously,
its increased area and net change rate was 0.32 kha and 4.52
respectively. It indicated that land use allocation of
agricultural in Wuhan is in the law of the market. Under the
market mechanism function, agricultural structure of Wuhan
presents distinct features of metropolis agriculture or suburb
agriculture. There is a substantial change of waters and land
for residents, specially the land for residents increased by
4.59 kha from 2000 to 2005, its area proportion increases by
1.35% and the net change rate was 7.41%. This fully reflects
that the population increase and the economical
development led to the expansion of residential land and the
construction land, and the urban land-use area in suburban
districts and counties had a certain scale.
2005 Net Change
Net Change Area
Proportion Proportion
60.59 -6.66 -1.28
9.35 -0.06 -0.08
0.86 0.32 4.52
20.36 2.04 1.20
 Residential 61.96 7.31 66.55
Unused land 8.48 1.00 8.26
B. Semi-variation Calculation and Analysis for ER
1) Variography
Fitting a model, or spatial modeling, is also known as
structural analysis, or variography. When spatially modeling
the structure of measured points, you begin with a graph of
the empirical semi-variation, which computed as follows:
Semi-variation(distance h) =0.5 * average[ (value at location
i – value at location j)2].
Here h refer to the distance for all pairs of separated locations.
The formula involves calculating the difference squared between
the values of the paired locations. This process continues for each
measured point.
Each pair of locations has a unique distance, and there
are often many pairs of points. To plot all pairs quickly
becomes unmanageable. Instead of plotting each pair, the
pairs are grouped into lag bins. The empirical semi-variation
is a graph of the averaged semi-variation values on the
y-axis and the distance on the x-axis. (Fig.4; Fig.5)
Spatial autocorrelation quantifies a basic principle of
geography: things that are closer are more alike than things
farther apart. Thus, pairs of locations that are closer (far left
on the x-axis of the semi-variation cloud) should have more
similar values (low on the y-axis of the semi-variation
cloud). As pairs of locations become farther apart (moving
to the right on the x-axis of the semi-variation cloud), they
should become more dissimilar and have a higher squared
difference (move up on the y-axis of the semi-variation
cloud).
2) Calculation of Semi-variation Parameter
Results of semi-variations calculation and model fitting
give us key parameters describing spatial structure of ER
isomers(Table II). These parameters include the nugget
value C0, sill (C0 + C), and range value a. Eastman provided
an understandable description of these parameters: The sill
(C0 + C) is an estimated semi-variance that marks where a
plateau begins. The nugget value, C0, presents the
variability at zero distance, i.e. spatial random variance of
regional variable. The value C presents the sill proportion of
explainable semi-variance. The range is defined as the
separate distance that corresponding at about 95% of the sill
[11].
a) Ranges: As generally believed, the range value is an
indicator of extension where autocorrelation exists [11]. The
range value reflects the capability in transportation for long
distances. From the variation situation of range, the range in
2005 is greater than the one in 2000, which indicates that
spatial correlation distance of ER index in 2005 is greater
than the one in 2000. In the process of urbanization and
development of town economy, the difference reduces in the
TABLE II. THE RARAMETER OF THEORETIC MODEL AND SEMI-VARIATION FUNCTION OF ER INDEX
Year Theoretical model Nugget (C0)
2000 Spherical model 0.003
2005 Spherical model 0.01
7.85 4.59 7.41
0.98 -0.22 -2.62
form of land use among administrative areas, and spatial
correlation distance of landscape ecological risk index
increased evidently.
b) Nuggets: In this study, The nugget is the parameter
for measuring fluctuation range of ER index. The result
shows in the Table II. The nugget is 0.003 of Wuhan in 2000
and 0.01 in 2005. The lesser nugget shows that some process
in small scale can be ignored.
c) Sills: Sill value (C0 + C) reflects the variations of
regionalized variables in space. The sill of Wuhan is 0.015
in 2000 and 0.025 in 2005. The highest variance of sill in
space could be explained by its superior stability and
resistance to degradation. This result shows that the ER
intensity of Wuhan in 2005 is apparently stronger than the
one in 2000, the spatial difference increases gradually from
2000 to 2005. The spatial distribution difference of ER index
is increasing gradually along with the enhancement of effect
degree by human being, increase of exploiture intensity and
diversity in different space and a mass of farmland occupied
by industry and town. In addition, distribution of mineral
resource in 2005 is denser than it in 2000. We find that the
more abundance in mineral resource and the more intensity
of development, the more damage to the ecological
destruction and the more severe of ER..
d) Nugget–sill-ratio: The nugget–sill-ratio (NSR)
C0/(C0 + C) was selected to express short-distance
autocorrelation of regionalized variables [14]. Low NSR
indicates high spatial autocorrelation or spatial continuity
over short distances. ER isomers in 2000 presented high
value of NSR, equal to 0.8125, indicating evident spatial
randomness of the distribution of ER of Wuhan in 2000
(Table II) .
C. Kriging and Mapping of ER in Wuhan
Large nugget variances would lead to large estimation
variances and difference when mapping by punctual
Kriging. Under these circumstances the block Kriging
method was selected since it produces smaller estimation
variances and smoother maps than punctual Kriging. The
whole area of Wuhan was divided into 8845 square blocks
(1000 x1000 m). Two-dimensional ordinary block Kriging
was applied to estimate logarithmic values of the E for each
block.
The whole application, including semi-variation
calculation and Kriging, was applied to log-transformed
data. Since the mean of log is not log of the mean, therefore
the ER value gained by anti-logging calculation was
geometric mean in each block, but not the simple mean
actually. Interpolated of ER value have been depicted as
color-scaled raster maps (Fig. 6-7).
Sill (C0+C) C/( C+C0)* A Range
0.015 0.8125 4945.817m
0.025 0.6 15228.77m
 *Annotate：C/( C+C0) for spatial autocorrelation

SEMIVARIAN
0. 06
0. 05
0. 04
0. 03
0. 02
0. 01
0. 00
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
Distance（ m）

Figure 4. The curve of semi-variation function of ER in 2000

SEMIVARIAN
0. 10
0. 08
0. 06
0. 04
0. 02
0. 00
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
Distance（ m）

Figure 5. The curve of semi-variation function of ER in 2005

In 2005 ecology risk intensity increased obviously, the

V. SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL
ECOLOGICAL RISK
Based on analysis of semi-variation function and
application of Kriging interpolation, we will obtain
distribution map of ER of Wuhan in 2000 (Fig.6) and 2005
(Fig.7), the result reveals that ecology risk level in the study
area was divided into 3 levels and each rank distribution
space has a certain degree change, the landscape space
ecology risk level in the northern mountains is lower than
flat area, presents micro risk, and where landscape space
ecology risk region is less affected by the fast urbanization
process; the region of general vegetations and waters belong
to the low ecology risk area; the urban built-up area and the
edge presents moderate ecology risk and relative high
ecology risk.
Analysis of characteristic of ecology risk spatial
distribution change: Table III shows that spatial distribution
scope and the intensity of ER all had changed distinctly;
scope of high ER expanded from 2000 to 2005, and the
scope of medium ecology risk increased obviously. The
scope of lower ecology risk and the low ecology risk
reduced, especially low ecology risk scope reduces greatly.
The distribution area of lower ER is 1005.57 km2 in 2000
and 58.36 km2 in 2005, which contributes 11.8% and
10.07% of total area of Wuhan respectively，the proportion
of lower ER had reduced by 1.73% from 2000 to 2005. The
low ER rank dropped by 4.03%; the medium ER rank
increased by 5.18%; the high ER rank increased by 0.58%.
In the spatial distribution, the urban land and the built-up
district edge was still a high ER region, but the distribution
scope and the risk intensity was on the increase, this
tendency mainly dues to urban expansion to north and south
and development of industrial and mining enterprisescities
in suburb. In a word, the change of land use led to the
enhancement of ecology risk intensity and scope in some
area, and also increased the nonhomogeneity and otherness
of ER spatial distribution.

TABLE III. THE CLASS AND AREA DISTRIBUTION OF ER IN STUDY AREA

2000 2005
Grade
Area (km2) Proportion（%） Area (km2) Proportion（%）
Lower ER 1005.57 11.80 858.36 10.07
Low ER 6544.73 76.79 6201.64 72.76
Medium ER 848.34 9.95 1289.43 15.13
High ER 124.34 1.46 173.55 2.04
 Figure 6. The land use of Wuhan in 2000
VI. CONCLUSIONS
This study used remote sensing and GIS technology to
monitor landscape change in Wuhan from 2000 to 2005.
Variable spatialization was performed for ecology risk index
by using the space analysis method, and then half variation
function analysis and the spatial interpolation were used to
analyze the result of the ecology risk index sampling. Finally
the landscape ecological risk of Wuhan which is in the
process of urbanization was analyzed, and some specific
conclusions are as follows:
z In the process of urbanization, the main landscape
change characteristic of the study area was the
artificial architecture landscape continued to increase
and the plantation landscape reduced in bulk from
2000 to 2005.
z There is a rising tendency of the ecology risk level
of research area. At the same time, the landscape
ecological risk in northern mountainous area of
Wuhan is significantly lower than the one in plain
area, and the landscape ecological risk caused by
rapid urbanization process is less notable.
z The level of landscape ecology risk also has a certain
difference among variety of natural landscapes. Vast
area of vegetation and waters were low ecological
risk zones, the urban built-up area and the edge area
of urban belong to medium and the relative high
ecology risk zones.
It is possible to make quantificational description for
correspondingly degree of ER in different regions by using
spatial statistic based on the different period data of
landscape pattern, which can reveal the characters of spatial
distribution and dynamic change of ER. At the same time,
this ways and means could be applied to the effective
explanation of some spatial detail information on dynamics
mechanism, and establish the relationship between
landscape pattern and regional ER, which will provide more
exact basis of science for decision-making of ecological
protection. But this method does not establish the direct
relationship between landscape pattern and details of
regional ecology, and the index of ER is just a measure of
probability of ecological problems, therefore it is incapable
to provide the direct basis for detailed and specific measure
Figure 7. Spatial distribution map of ER in 2005
of ecological protection. However, the change of land use
pattern could change the function of regional ecosystem, it is
feasible to identify the trend of ecological environment by
researching the variability characteristics of different
landscape types of land use. So, this paper may provide
some useful enlightenment for further research of evaluation
and formation mechanism of ER.
REFERENCES
[1] Mao, X.L., Ni, J.R., “Progresses of Ecological Risk Assessment,”
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, vol. 41(4),
2005, pp. 646-654.
[2] Chen, H., Liu, J.S., Cao, Y., et al., “Progresses of Ecological Risk
Assessment,” ACTA ECOLOGICA SINICA, vol. 26(5), 2006, pp.
1558-1566.
[3] Fu, Z.Y., Xu, X.G., “Regional Ecological Risk Assessment,”
ADVANCE IN EARTH SC IENCES, vol. 16(2), 2001, pp.267-271.
[4] Power, M, McCarty, L.S., “Trends in the Development of Ecological
Risk Assessment and Management Frameworks,” Human and
Ecological Risk Assessment, vol. 8 (1) , 2002, pp. 7-18.
[5] Suter, G.W., Vermier, T. , MunnsW R J r , et al., “Framework for the
Integration of Health and Ecological Risk Assessment,” Human and
Ecological Risk Assessment, vol. 9, 2003, pp. 281-302.
[6] Zeng, H & Liu, G.J., “Analysis of Regional Ecological Risk Based
on Landscape Pattern,” China Environmental Science, J. vol. 19(5),
1999, pp. 454-45.
[7] Zang, S.Y., Liang, X & Zhang, S.C., “GIS-based Analysis of
Ecological Risk on Land Use in Daqing City,” Journal of Natural
Disasters, vol.14(4), 2005, pp. 141-145.
[8] Laslett, G.M., McBratney, A.B., Pahl, P.J., Hutchinson, M.F.,
“Comparison of Several Prediction Methods for Soil pH,” Journal of
Soil Science vol. 38, 1987, pp. 325-341.
[9] Myers, D., “Spatial Interpolation: an Overview,” Geoderma vol. 62,
1994, pp. 17-28.
[10] Voltz, M., Goulard, M., “Spatial Interpolation of Soil Moisture
Retention Curves,” Geoderma vol. 62, 1994, pp. 109-123.
[11] .Eastman, J.R., 2001, IDRISI32, Release 2, Guide to GIS and Image
Processing 2, pp. 133-138.
[12] Tao, S., “Kriging and Mapping of Copper, Lead, and Mercury
Contents in Surface Soil in Shenzhen Area,” Water, Air and Soil
Pollution vol. 83, 1995, pp. 161-172.
[13] Wang, X.J., Zheng, Y., Liu, R.M., Li, B.G., Cao, J., Tao, S., “Kriging
and PAH Pollution Assessment in the Topsoil of Tianjin Area,”
Bulletin of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology vol. 71,
2003, pp. 189-195.
[14] Guo, X.D., Fu, B.J., Ma, K.M., “Study on Spatial Variation of Soil
Nutrients Based on GIS and Geostatistics,” Applied Ecology vol. 11,
2000, pp. 557-563.