Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Time Value of Money
Time Value of Money
Time Value of Money
•Many financial decisions involve the comparison between cash flows that are
situated at different moments in time
•Loans
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Time Value of Money
•1 Euro today has not the same value today as 1 Euro due a year from now (or even
tomorrow)
•Reason:
•Opportunity cost that could be earned with that amount between today and a future date, or
the “Time value of money”
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Time Value of Money
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Time Value of Money
•The expected return (what we stand to earn if we wait a while before receiving – at time t - a
certain amount of money)
•The corresponding risk (the possibility that we may lose part or all of our investment made at
time 0)
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Risk and Return
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Future Value: Risk versus Return
•(Real case) In the period 1926-2010, the mean rates of return in the US for a
number of different assets were as follows:
(Source:Ibbotson Associates)
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Risk and Return
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Basic Concepts of Time Value of Money
▪Future Value
▪Present Value
▪Future Value of a Constant Periodic Payment (or Annuity if the period is a year)
▪Present Value of a Constant Periodic Payment (or Annuity if the period is a year)
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Future Value
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Future Value
FVn = PV0 (1 + i ) n
•Linear interest system
•Earned Interest is not paid periodically (only at the end of the contract, however unpaid interest
earns no interest
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Future Value
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Future Value
• Answer:
(1 + i )7 = (1 + 16% 7)
7 1
( )
(1 + i ) = (1 + 16% 7)
7 7
1
( )
i = (1 + 16% 7) − 1 = 11.33%
7
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Future Value
•If the Native American tribe that accepted goods worth 60 guilders for the sale of
Manhattan in 1626 had invested the money in a Dutch bank at 6.5% interest,
compounded annually, then in 2005 their investment would be worth over €700
billion (around USD1 trillion), more than the assessed value of the real estate in all
five boroughs of New York City.
•With a 6.0% interest however, the value of their investment today would have been
€100 billion (1/7th as much!).
•Home Exercise: check how many guilders that would be in 2005 and confirm that a drop in
interest rate from 6.5% to 6.0% would have such an impact
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Future Value
Year 6,50% 6%
1626 60,00 60,00
2005 1.392.042.827.692,96 233.923.679.052,78
Comparison 100,0% 16,8%
Accumul. Return 2320071379388% 389872798321%
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Future Value
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Future Value
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Future Value
•Question:
A. In 01.09.2013 the S&P500 index had a value of 1805.81. In 01.09.2023 that value
was 4515.77. How much was
(i) the accumulated percentage return for an investor that during that
period (10 years) would have kept a portfolio of stocks that was able to replicate
the composition of such índex?
(ii) How much was the compounded annual return for such investor?
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Future Value
•Question:
B. In 01.09.1953 the S&P500 índex had a value of 18.55. In 01.09.2023 that value
was 4515.77. How much was
(i) the accumulated percentage return for an investor that during that
period (70 years) would have kept a portfolio of stocks that was able to replicate
the composition of such índex?
(ii) How much was the compounded annual return for such investor?
| 20
Future Value
•Answers:
4515.77
•A) (i) − 1 = 150.07%
1805.81
1
4515.77
10
− 1 = 9.60%
(ii)
1805.81
4515.77
•B) (i) − 1 = 24243.77%
18.55
1
(ii) 4515.77
70
− 1 = 8.17%
18.55 | 21
Future Value
22
Future Value
•Question:
•D) What is the Future Value of 100 000 euros invested in the last 10 years in either
the S&P500 or the PSI20 TR Indexes?
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Future Value
•Answers:
17361.39
•C) (i) − 1 = 47.86%
11741.54
1
(ii) 17361.39 10
− 1 = 3.99%
11741.54
•D) FVPSI 20 = 100 000 (1 + 3.99%)10 = 147862.97
FVS & P 500 = 100 000 (1 + 9.60%)10 = 250068.94
(note: the US Dollar increased in value relative to the Euro by a total of +23.7% in the last
10 years thus total gains were 11.07% /year in euros for an investor on S&P500,
accumulating therefore a total amount of 309295.80 euros vs 147862.97, ie more than 2
times (2.09x) the amount received from the investment on PSI20 TR! e| 24
Future Value
2013 2023
USD/EUR 0.76 0.94
Change 23.7%
In Euros
Returns 10 years Accum. 10 years S&P/PSI20
S&P500 11.07% 185.61%
Future Value 309295.80 2.09 e| 25
Future Value: (very) log run returns
•(Real case) In the period 1 Jan 1926- 31 Dec 2022, the mean rates of return in
the US for a number of different assets were as follows:
(Source:Ibbotson Associates)
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Future Value
•What would be the future value in 2022 of 100 USD invested in 1st Jan 1926 until
31 Dec 2022 in each of the above assets (n=97 years)?
•And what about the average annual real return (i.e., inflation-free)?
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Future Value
Note that:
if
Real returns (bef. Tax) rr = Real return
Av. Return i = Inflation rate
Small Stocks 8.65% nr = Nominal return (unadjusted for inflation)
Large Stocks 7.00% then
Government Bonds 2.24% (1 + nr ) = (1 + rr )(1 + i) ("Fischer equation")
T-Bills 0.29% and thus
(1 + nr )
Inflation 2.90% rr = −1
(1 + i )
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Future Value
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Future Value
| 30
Equity Risk Premium
•Basis for determining the required rate of return (ks) for equity investors (ks)
according to the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model)
•Given the average return of the equity market (kM), a riskfree rate (kF) and a measure of the relative
( ) riskiness of a particular stock relative to the equity market as a whole (the market by definition
has a that has a = 1 ):
kS = kF + (kM − kF ) = kF + ERP
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Future Value
32
Future Value
33
Future Value
Q: if you
invested $1000
in 1965 in BH,
how much would
you have in
2022?
Compare with S&P500.
Solution:
1000 (1 + 19.8%)58 = 35 521 839.45
versus
1000 (1 + 9.9%)58 = 238707.55
34
Future Value
•If instead of trying your luck weekly in Euromillions lottery with a cost of 5 euros
per week, you were to place weekly such amounts in the stockmarket earning on
average a nominal annual rate of return of 10%, how much would you accumulate
in 25 years?
Solution:
Lotto savings
5 per week
nr years 25
i 10%
28,998.53 €
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Future Value
GOOD INVESTING IN THE STOCK MARKET
Source: Expresso
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Future Value of Periodic Payments
•Suppose
•R= Periodic Payment (or “Rent”; or “Annuity” if payment is yearly)
•n = Number of payments (number of rents to be paid or received)
•Sn = Sum of future values of all n rents
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Future Value of Periodic Payments
n
(1 + i ) n − 1
Sn = R (1 + i ) n− k
=R
k =1 i
Example:
Suppose R = 1000, n = 50 years and i = 10%
What is the Future Value of all sums?
(1 + 10%) 50 − 1
S50 = 1000 = 1,163,908.53
10%
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Present Value
•What is the amount today that we would be indifferent in comparison with the
(guaranteed) amount of 100 euros in 2 years if the risk-free interest rate is
5%/year?
FVt
PV0 = FVt (1 + i ) − t =
(1 + i ) t
100
PV0 = 100 (1 + 5%) −2 = = 90.70
(1 + 5%) 2
Note that
90.70 (1 + 5%) 2 = 100
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Present Value of Periodic Payments
40
Present Value of Periodic Payments
•Suppose
•that the interest rate (called APR-Annual Percentage Rate) charged by banks on house
loans is 5%
•What if the first constant payment is made at time 0 instead of time 1 (while
keeping the same total number of payments?)
1 − (1 + i) − n
PV0 = R(1 + i )
i
(1 + i )n − 1
FVn = R(1 + i )
i
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Present Value of Periodic Payments
•i.e., an operation through which future cash-flow rights are transformed into tradable
securities that can be sold to third parties
43
Present Value of Periodic Payments
44
Present Value of Periodic Payments
45
Present Value of Periodic Payments
46
Present Value of Periodic Payments
47
Infinite Number of Payments
R1
lim PV0 =
n →+ i−g
where R1 is the next future payment (at time 1)
(0 is the current period)
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Infinite Number of Payments
•In general terms, the Present Value at time n of a growing perpetuity with infinite
horizon starting at n+1 will be
Rn +1
PVn =
i−g
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Example
50
Present Value of Growing Annuities with finite horizons
•We can also compute the value of growing annuities with finite horizons as the
difference between two infinite growing annuities, one of them starting at time 1
and another at time n+1: R
•The first perpetuity has a value, at time 0, of PV0 = 1
i−g
•The second perpetuity has a value, at time 0, of
Rn +1 1 R1 (1 + g ) n 1
PV0 = =
(i − g ) (1 + i ) n (i − g ) (1 + i ) n
•Therefore the difference between the two is the PV of an annuity starting at time 1 and
ending at time n:
Note: if the first annuity starts at time 0, then the formulas above must by multiplied by (1+i)
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Example
•Please compute the Present Value at time 0 of annuity that will start in one year time
with a value of 100 euros, will grow at a rate of 10%/year and will end after 20 years. The
discount rate is 6%.
•Solution:
•Note: unlike infinite-horizon annuities, finite horizon ones can be computed even when g>i
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Future Value of Growing Annuities with finite horizons
• From:
• If we want to compute the Future Value at time n, we just need to multiply the
formula above by a factor of (1+i)n and therefore,
R1 (1 + g ) n
FVn = PV0 (1 + i ) = n
1− n
(1 + i ) n =
(i − g ) (1 + i )
R1
FVn = (1 + i ) n − (1 + g ) n
(i − g )
| 53
APR versus AER
•We could, however, ask what will be the effective income of the Bank if it
periodically receives interest in a regular, sub-annual form?
•Thus, the Annual Equivalent Rate (AER), sometimes called the Effective
(annual) Interest Rate (EIR) will be, from the standpoint of the Bank
126,83
Annual Equivalent Rate = AER = = 12.683%
1000
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APR versus AER
z
APR
AER = 1 + −1
z
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APR versus AER in a continuous compounding setting
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APR versus AER
Practical rules
• Proportional Rule
• From APR rates we can compute an effective interest rate (for the
period where interest is to be paid or computed) using a
proportional rule , that is
• if i(z) is the APR, being z the number of periods in the year for
computing interest (number of capitalization period)
Practical rules
z Capitalization period
1 Annually
2 Semi-annually
4 Quarterly
12 Monthly
52 Weekly
| 59
APR versus EAR
Practical rules
• Equivalence rule
• Two effective interest rates are deemed equivalent if, when
applied to a same initial amount PV0, these will provide for the
same period (ex. one year), an identical future value:
PV0 (1 + ieffect. annual ) = PV0 (1 + ieffect. semi-annual ) = PV0 (1 + ieffect. quarter ) = PV0 (1 + ieffect. month ) = ...
1 2 4 12
or
(1 + ieffect. annual ) = (1 + ieffect. semi-annual ) = (1 + ieffect. quarter ) = (1 + ieffect. month ) = ...
1 2 4 12
| 60
APR versus AER
Practical rules
• Example
➢ Annual Equivalent Rate (AER) when the Annual Percentage Rate (APR)
(or NIR-Nominal Interest rate) is 5% with semi-annual interest
compounding:
2 2
Practical rules
Proportional rule
Equivalence
Effective Interest rule Effective interest
Rate rate
(for period z) (for period z’)
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Loan Amortization Tables
•Example:
•Value of loan: 1,000,000 €
•Annual Percentage Interest Rate (APR): 6%
•Contract period length: 9 years, quarterly payments
•Thus, the Quarterly Effective Interest Rate = 6%/4=1.5%, and therefore,
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Loan Amortization Tables
Period Principal Due Interest Payment Principal Payment Total Payment
1 1.000.000,00 € 15.000,00 € 21.152,40 € 36.152,40 €
2 978.847,60 € 14.682,71 € 21.469,68 € 36.152,40 €
3 957.377,92 € 14.360,67 € 21.791,73 € 36.152,40 €
4 935.586,20 € 14.033,79 € 22.118,60 € 36.152,40 €
5 913.467,59 € 13.702,01 € 22.450,38 € 36.152,40 €
6 891.017,21 € 13.365,26 € 22.787,14 € 36.152,40 €
7 868.230,07 € 13.023,45 € 23.128,94 € 36.152,40 €
8 845.101,13 € 12.676,52 € 23.475,88 € 36.152,40 €
9 821.625,25 € 12.324,38 € 23.828,02 € 36.152,40 €
10 797.797,23 € 11.966,96 € 24.185,44 € 36.152,40 €
11 773.611,80 € 11.604,18 € 24.548,22 € 36.152,40 €
12 749.063,58 € 11.235,95 € 24.916,44 € 36.152,40 €
13 724.147,14 € 10.862,21 € 25.290,19 € 36.152,40 €
14 698.856,95 € 10.482,85 € 25.669,54 € 36.152,40 €
15 673.187,41 € 10.097,81 € 26.054,58 € 36.152,40 €
16 647.132,82 € 9.706,99 € 26.445,40 € 36.152,40 €
17 620.687,42 € 9.310,31 € 26.842,08 € 36.152,40 €
18 593.845,34 € 8.907,68 € 27.244,72 € 36.152,40 €
19 566.600,62 € 8.499,01 € 27.653,39 € 36.152,40 €
20 538.947,23 € 8.084,21 € 28.068,19 € 36.152,40 €
21 510.879,05 € 7.663,19 € 28.489,21 € 36.152,40 €
22 482.389,84 € 7.235,85 € 28.916,55 € 36.152,40 €
23 453.473,29 € 6.802,10 € 29.350,30 € 36.152,40 €
24 424.122,99 € 6.361,84 € 29.790,55 € 36.152,40 €
25 394.332,44 € 5.914,99 € 30.237,41 € 36.152,40 €
26 364.095,03 € 5.461,43 € 30.690,97 € 36.152,40 €
27 333.404,06 € 5.001,06 € 31.151,33 € 36.152,40 €
28 302.252,73 € 4.533,79 € 31.618,60 € 36.152,40 €
29 270.634,12 € 4.059,51 € 32.092,88 € 36.152,40 €
30 238.541,24 € 3.578,12 € 32.574,28 € 36.152,40 €
31 205.966,96 € 3.089,50 € 33.062,89 € 36.152,40 €
32 172.904,07 € 2.593,56 € 33.558,83 € 36.152,40 €
33 139.345,24 € 2.090,18 € 34.062,22 € 36.152,40 €
34 105.283,02 € 1.579,25 € 34.573,15 € 36.152,40 €
35 70.709,87 € 1.060,65 € 35.091,75 € 36.152,40 €
36 35.618,12 € 534,27 € 35.618,12 € 36.152,40 €
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Appendix 1: Islamic Banking
•Compound interest was once regarded as the worst kind of usury, and was
severely condemned by Roman law, as well as the common laws of many other
countries
•The Qur'an explicitly mentions compound interest as a great sin, even though
Muslims all over the world have financial arrangements according to special
Islamic rules. Interest known in Arabic as "riba" (usury) is considered wrong:
“ Oh you who believe, you shall not take riba, compounded over and over.
Observe God, so that you may succeed ”
— (Qur'an 3:130)
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Appendix 1: Islamic Banking
•Islamic banking has the same purpose as conventional banking except that it
operates in accordance with the rules of Shariah, known as Fiqh al-Muamalat
(Islamic rules on transactions).
•The basic principle of Islamic banking is the sharing of profit and loss and the
prohibition of riba (usury).
•
•Amongst the common Islamic concepts used in Islamic banking are profit sharing
(Mudharabah), safekeeping (Wadiah), joint venture (Musharakah), cost plus (Murabahah),
and leasing (Ijarah).
66
Appendix 1: Islamic Banking
67
Appendix 2: Basic Financial Glossary
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Time Value of Money Formulae Table ( i = discount rate )
Description Formula (i = Discount Rate )
Future Value, at time n, of an initial amount PV0 invested at FVn = PV0 (1 + i ) n
time 0
FVn
Present value, at time 0, of a Future amount FVn expected at PV0 = FVn (1 + i ) − n =
time n (1 + i ) n