Population Dynamic Models

By Cheryl F. Labitag

1. POPULATION DYNAMIC MODELS

A mathematical or computational representation used to study and
understand how the size and composition of a population change over time.
Population dynamics models are essential tools for understanding the growth and
behavior of populations. They help researchers and policymakers make informed
decisions regarding conservation and resource management.

EXAMPLE OF CALCULATION FOR NEXT YEAR’S POPULATION

Formula: (N1 - D1 + R1 = N2)
 Number alive next year (N2)
 Number of fish alive this year (N1)
 Died this year (D1)
 Born this year (R1)

2. BASIC POPULATION DYNAMIC MODEL

Stock assessment models in fish stock assessment rely on several key
underpinnings and principles to estimate the size, health, and sustainable harvest
levels of fish populations. Basic population dynamic model is covered by the
following:
 Fecundity - The number of offspring produced by an individual.
 Net Fecundity - The number of recruits (offspring that survive to be counted or
caught) produced by an individual.
 Growth rate - The relationship between net fecundity rate and mortality rate. The
growth rate of a population refers to the rate at which a population's size
increases or decreases over a specific period of time. It is typically expressed as
a percentage. And because the growth rate is given as a percentage, it does not
depend on the abundance, or density, of individuals. The growth rate is therefore
categorized as density-independent.
 Density independent - also called intrinsic growth rate. It assume that changes in
population size are primarily influenced by external, abiotic factors rather than
population density. These dynamics may apply to stocks at small abundance
levels or over short periods of time. However, the intrinsic growth rate model
doesn’t provide very realistic dynamics for longer-term modeling.
 Density dependent - Consider that the population's growth and vital rates are
influenced by the population's density or size. Carrying capacity for stock is
present due to habitat limitations, the availability of prey, or the presence of
predators.

3. MORTALITY
Mortality rate is the number of deaths that occur within that population over a
specific period of time. Rather than thinking of mortality as just an annual percentage,
stock assessment modelers focus instead on the instantaneous mortality rate.
 Instantaneous mortality rate - is the rate at which the population is shrinking in
each tiny periods of time.
IMR Formula : (M + F = Z)
-Instantaneous natural mortality rate (M )
-Instantaneous fishing mortality rate (F )
-Instantaneous mortality rate (Z )
4. AGE STRUCTURE
Refers to the distribution of individuals within a population across different
age groups or cohorts. Rather than build a model out to some maximum age (and
thus assume all fish die after they reach that age), modelers often include what they
call a plus group.
 Plus group - contains all fish of a certain age and older.
 Partial recruitment pattern - pattern of instantaneous fishing mortality rates
across ages.
2 Types of partial recruitment pattern
 Flat-topped partial recruitment - occur when older age classes have the
highest instantaneous fishing mortality rates and the rates are relatively
constant across the older age classes.
 Dome-shaped partial recruitment - occur when intermediate age classes
have the highest instantaneous fishing mortality rates and the rates
decrease for ages above and below the intermediate ages.
 Separability assumption - is used occasionally in stock assessment models
when different instantaneous fishing mortality rates are calculated for each age.
 Gear selectivity - is the probability that a fish of a certain age or size will be
captured by a given gear.
 Fully selected - a term that implies that 100 percent of the fish that encounter a
given gear are caught by that gear.
 Classic growth model - also called as Ludwig Von Bertalanffy growth model. It
assumes that growth occurs most quickly at the youngest ages, slows gradually
as the fish gets older, and eventually levels off.
 L infinity - refers to the size at which the fish stop growing in classic growth
model.

5. STOCK-RECRUITMENT FUNCTIONS
Stock-recruitment models are used to define the relationship between the
number of reproductively mature adults and the number of recruits in a stock.
 Beverton-Holt model - assumes that the number of recruits increases as the
mature population gets larger, then levels off.
 Ricker model - Assumes that when the reproductively mature population reaches
a certain level, the number of recruits actually decreases rather than remaining
constant.

6. WEIGHT AND BIOMASS

In stock assessment, "weight" typically refers to the total biomass of a
particular species of fish. Biomass refers to to the total weight or abundance of a
particular species or group of organisms in a given area or ecosystem.
 Estimating biomass in stock assessment
 Calculate the average weight of an individual fish (each age class or for the
stock as a whole)
 Multiply the average weight by the number of individuals in the class or
stock.
 Average weight at age
 Derived from data originally collected as length and weight.
 Average weight for a given length classes is then converted to an average
weight for a given age, based on length-age keys.