NIGERIA 2024:

Bridging Stormy Waters.

Macro-Economic Recap FY2023

• The year 2023 exposed the vulnerabilities of a globalized world once again. A myriad of significant events unfolded on both national and global fronts, encompassing a spectrum of socio-economic
and geopolitical dimensions as interconnected systems buckled under the pressure of rising costs, geopolitical tensions, and economic instability.

• The landscape was characterized by the escalation of energy and food costs, disruptions in supply chains and logistics, and geopolitical tensions spanning West Africa, Europe, and the Middle East.
Further contributing to the complexity were notable developments such as a deceleration in the Chinese economy, a banking crisis culminating in the demise of several regional banks in the United
States, and the consequential acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS in Switzerland.

• FY2023 was defined by global economic anxieties. *Haunted by the specter of inflation, central banks across the globe maintained a hawkish stance on interest rate. This amalgamation of these
events underscored the intricate interplay of economic, political, and financial factors that shaped the global economic narrative.

• On the domestic front, persistent legacy headwinds, marked by security challenges in crucial food-producing regions, escalating transportation expenses fueled by the surge in energy prices, and
deficiencies in public infrastructure, persist as key drivers behind the upward trajectory of both food and core inflation rates.

• Monetary policy by the CBN was hawkish throughout the year. The benchmark interest rate, the MPR was been raised consistently to match with the rising inflation.

• After the successful conclusion of the presidential election and the ensuing legal proceedings, the new federal administration deregulated the price of petrol by eliminating petrol subsidy and
switching to an exchange rate that was set by the market. The dynamics of the policy environment continue to evolve, and this caused a pass-through to domestic pricing that reduced real income,
weakened purchasing power, and increased inflationary pressures.

• The naira depreciated sharply to about N1000 : US$ 1.0 as the demand for foreign exchange outstripped supply.

• Profound challenges persisted on the fiscal front, primarily pertaining to the management of a growing debt. The debt profile exhibited a substantial escalation, surging from an initial US$63 billion to
an exceeding US$120 billion by the year end 2023. Notably, an alarming 96% of revenues is expected to be earmarked solely for servicing this escalating debt burden.

• The Nigerian economy found itself ensnared in the economic conundrum known as stagflation, characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of inflationary pressures and elevated unemployment.
This presented a formidable challenge as policymakers strove to address both inflationary pressures and unemployment concurrently, navigating the intricate interplay between these two adverse
economic phenomena.

*In 2023, inflation across several Advanced Economies continued to moderate but remained considerably above their respective long-run objectives even as monetary policy tightening progressed.
 The Global Economy 1/3

War In Ukraine
• In 2020, 15 African countries imported over 50% of
their wheat products from the Russian Federation or
Ukraine.
• The AfDB notes that the Russian invasion of Ukraine
triggered a shortage of about 30 million tons of grains
on the continent.
• Global energy prices soared to a three-decade high
during this war, and natural gas price costs peaked at
over 300 Euros per megawatt-hour.
• The war has spurred Inflation across the world as
core inflation index is sensitive to energy and food
prices.
Houthi Militia Red Sea Attacks China Economic Slowdown
• China contributes over a third of global economic growth,
• Ongoing attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen,
this has a profound impact on the world economy.
supported by Iran, on commercial ships in the Red
• In aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, challenges such
Sea have led to a significant rerouting of the
as sluggish growth, elevated youth unemployment, and a
predominant trade flow that typically traverses this
tumultuous property market pose concerns.
crucial maritime route for consumer goods and
• These concerns include diminished Chinese investment
energy supplies. The consequence of this redirection
overseas, particularly in Africa, reduced imports of inputs
includes delays in shipments and a notable escalation
from major exporters like Australia and Brazil, as well as
in transportation costs.
various African nations.
• This is a fall out of the Israeli- Gaza War. This
• Additionally, there's a looming risk of financial contagion
represents an escalation as the US and UK are
should China's property crisis escalate into a full-blown
engaged in aerial defense while escorting ships.
economic collapse, potentially triggering a global
financial meltdown.

BRICS West Africa/Sahel Conflicts US/China Trade War

• Formerly comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and
South Africa, the BRICS bloc has expanded to
encompass 10 members, with an additional 15
applications, including Nigeria, under consideration.
• Since 2009, BRICS nations have initiated endeavors
challenging the prevailing US-dominated financial
system and global order.
• These initiatives involve the establishment of the New
Development Bank (NDB) as an alternative to
institutions like the World Bank and the IMF.
• Furthermore, the introduction of the BRICS Payment
System (BPS) aims to diminish dependence on the US-
dominated SWIFT, signaling a concerted effort among
BRICS countries to assert greater autonomy in the
realm of international finance.
• Since 2020, six coups d'état have occurred in
francophone West Africa, with two each in Mali and
Burkina Faso, one in Guinea, and a recent one in
Niger. Except for Guinea, all these nations are
grappling with severe security crises.
• Niger, crucial for regional peace and security, acts as
a bulwark, preventing the infiltration of terrorists into
southern countries.
• Destabilization in Niger could result in the spread of
terrorism into Nigeria. This instability may deter
foreign investments, impede socio-economic
development, and trigger regional repercussions.
• Additionally, extremist groups could exploit the
situation by recruiting refugees, posing a security
threat in West Africa..
• Amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the
United States and China over the past year, there has
been a significant transformation in global supply
chains.
• Companies worldwide are compelled to diversify
their supply chains as a strategic response to mitigate
disruptions, minimize risk, and enhance the
continuity of their supplies.
• On a geo-economic scale, Brazil's trade dynamics
have shifted, with increased engagement with India
and China surpassing its traditional ties with
Argentina. The Middle East has forged stronger links
with Asia compared to Europe, a trend expected to
intensify with the proposed economic corridor linking
the Middle East and India

AfDB
www.un.org
 The Global Economy 2/3

January 2022 Inflation & Interest Rates (Pre- Ukraine Russian War) August 2023 Inflation & Interest Rates
12.00% 14.00%

10.00% 12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
8.00%
6.00%
6.00%
4.00%
4.00%
2.00% 2.00%
0.00% 0.00%

-2.00% -2.00%

Jan 2022 inflation Interest Rate Aug 2023 inflation Interest rate

January 2022 Interest Rates (Pre-Ukraine Russian War) August 2023 Interest Rates Global Commodity prices
10.00% 15.00%
8.00%
6.00% 10.00%
4.00% 5.00%
2.00%
0.00% 0.00%
-2.00%
-5.00%

Sources: www.statista.com
www.worldbank.org
lighthouse Reaserch
The Global Economy 3/3 |Why The War In Ukraine Is A Big Deal

• The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, two pivotal suppliers of energy, food, and fertilizer commodities, has
triggered substantial disruptions in the supply chains, impacting both developing and developed nations. This
geopolitical tension has reverberated across global markets, introducing uncertainty and challenges in ensuring
the steady provision of essential resources to countries at various levels of economic development.

• The potential humanitarian crisis in developing nations looms larger with disruptions to harvests and a Russian
grain blockade. This is particularly concerning for many countries, with 85% of Africa, for instance, relying
heavily on imported wheat.

• In 2020, Russia accounted for 14% of global trade in urea and 11% of trade in phosphate, while jointly Russia
and Belarus accounted for 41% of global trade in potash.

• The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine had profound effects on European gas markets, causing a sharp increase in
energy costs and a significant shift in global natural gas flows. This disruption prompted policymakers to
prioritize energy security. Consequently, Europe emerged as a major importer of liquefied natural gas, displacing
imports to Latin America and Asia

Top 10 Natural Gas Producers Fertilizer Prices $ Per Metric Ton Cuts In Global Growth Forecast Due To The Invasion Of Ukraine

1000 5.00
Ranking Country Production Trillion Cu M 900 4.50
1 USA 1.03 800 4.00
2 Russia 0.70 700 3.50
3 Iran 0.24 600 3.00
4 China 0.30 500 2.50
5 Canada 0.21 400 2.00
300 1.50
6 Qatar 0.17
200 1.00
7 Australia 0.16
100 0.50
8 Norway 0.13 0.00
0
9 Saudi Arabia 0.11 2020 2021 2022 Q1 2023 IMF World Bank UNCTAD OPEC
10 Algeria 0.10 Pre Invasion Post Invasion 2022
DAP TSP Urea Potassium chloride

Sources: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Worldbank,

DAP: Diammonium Phosphate, MOP: Muriate of Potash
 The Domestic Economy 1/4

Inflation Interest Rates Exchange Rate

• In November 2023, Nigeria experienced a surge in its
annual inflation rate, reaching 28.9%, the highest
since August 2005. This marked an increase from the
previous month's rate of 27.3%.
• The uptick in inflation was notable across various
sectors, including food and non-alcoholic beverages
(32.6% compared to 31.3% in October), clothing and
footwear (16.6% compared to 16.4%), housing and
utilities (23.4% compared to 22.9%), and health
(23.9% compared to 23.3%).
• The heightened inflationary pressures are attributed
to the government's removal of fuel subsidies in May
and the depreciation of the naira against the USD.
• Following the adoption of a floating exchange rate, the
• On July 25th, 2023, the CBN announced a 25 basis
NGN's value against the USD saw a near convergence in
points increase, raising the MPR to 18.75%. This is
both official and parallel markets.
the fourth consecutive rate hike in the current year,
• By December 2023, the NGN depreciated to
the highest since the adoption of the MPR in 2006.
NGN900/USD1, marking a 47% decline since the mid-
• The Central Bank, discussing the 25bps adjustment,
June 2023 devaluation.
stated a preference for a moderate rate hike to
• This positions the Nigerian naira as one of Sub-Saharan
maintain efforts in anchoring inflation expectations,
Africa's weakest currencies, second only to the Angolan
narrowing the negative real interest rate gap, and
Kwanza.
boosting investor confidence.
• Contributing factors include high demand, limited supply,
• The CBN is trying to grapple with the trilemma of
dwindling FX reserves, reduced crude oil production, and
targeted inflation rates, economic growth, and
incidents of oil theft.
exchange rate stabilization.
• The absence of a clear FX stabilization policy from the
• It is important to note that high-interest rates can
Central Bank of Nigeria compounds the challenges.
have implications for employment and hinder growth
in the real sector.

Fiscal Policy Corruption Insecurity

• In 2024, the projected budget deficit is N9.18trillion,
equivalent to 3.88 percent of the GDP.
• Key parameters include an oil price benchmark of
USD77.96/1bbl, a daily oil production estimate of
1.78mbpd, and an assumed exchange rate of
NGN750/1USD.
• To bridge the deficit, FGN plans to rely on new
borrowings totaling NGN7.83trillion, NGN298.49billion
from Privatization Proceeds, NGN1.05trillion from
multilateral and bilateral loans.
• The allocated percentage for debt servicing exceeds
that for capital expenditure in 2024.
• Notably, the budget deficit is expansionary and
potentially inflationary. This is in contrast with the
CBNs monetary policy.
• Nigeria is positioned as the 150th least corrupt nation
out of 180 countries, by the 2022 Corruption
Perceptions Index reported by Transparency
International.
• The country reached its highest corruption rank of
154.00 in 2021 and its lowest of 52.00 in 1997.
• Corruption exerts an indirect impact on a nation's
economic performance by influencing key drivers of
economic growth like investment, taxation, and
effectiveness of public expenditure.
• Corruption, by diminishing revenues and escalating
public spending, may contribute to larger fiscal
deficits, potentially leading to inflationary
consequences
• UNDP identifies seven elements that make up human
security: (i) Economic security; (ii) Food security; (iii)
Health security; (iv) Environmental security; (v)
Personal security; (vi) Community security; and (vii)
Political security.
• The common denominator for the above forms of
insecurity is armed conflict. This has disrupted the
socio-economic system and diverted development
resources towards defense.
• The patterns of insecurity include terrorism in the NE,
banditry & kidnapping in the NW, farmer-herder
clashes in the NC, insurrections in the SE, marauders
& gangs in the SW, militants/oil thieves in the SS.
• These patterns overtime have overlapped across the
country, creating a sense of existential angst.

www.cbn.gov.ng
www.ochaopt.org (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs)
www.budgetoffice.gov.ng
www.nigerianstat.gov.ng
 The Domestic Economy 2/4

GDP Growth Inflation Monetary Liquidity Cash Reserve Asymmetric Foreign NAFEM*
Macro Rate Rate Policy Rate Ratio Ratio Corridor* Reserves NGN/USD
Economy +100/ -300 $32.90
2.54% 28.20% 18.75% 30% 32.50% N865.99
bps Billion

Household Food Urban Rural Under

PMS AGO LPG (5kg)
Micro kerosene Inflation Inflation Inflation Employed
Economy
N 648.93/ltr N 1055.57/ltr N 1303.16/ltr N 4562.51/ltr 32.84% 30.21% 26.43% 11.8%

Inflation Rates 2023 (%) MPR Vs Inflation Rates 2023 (%) Fx Reserve Vs Crude Oil Price 2023

32.84 30.00 19.00 35.50 120.00

30.64 31.52 18.80
29.34 35.00
26.98 27.33 28.20 25.00 100.00
24.82 25.25 25.80 26.72 18.60
34.50
24.32 24.35 24.45 24.61 24.08 18.40
21.82 21.91 22.04 22.22 22.41 22.79 22.58 22.38 80.00
20.47 21.15 21.84 20.00 18.20 34.00
19.96 19.83 20.06
18.88 18.37 19.63 33.50 60.00
18.00
15.00
17.80 33.00
40.00
10.00 17.60 32.50
17.40 20.00
32.00
5.00 17.20
17.00 31.50 0.00
0.00 16.80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Fx Reserve $Bn Crude Oil Price ($/bbl)
Headline Food Core Headline MPR Linear (Fx Reserve $Bn) Linear (Crude Oil Price ($/bbl))

Sources: www.nigerianstat.gov.ng
www.cbn.gov.ng
* Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market
 The Domestic Economy 3/4
GDP Q3 FY2021 TO Q3 FY2023 Debt Category
ECONOMIC SCORECARD CURRENT Vs FY2022
18.00 4.50
Parameters Current Dec-22 % 16.00 4.00
14.00 3.50 External
Nominal GDP (%) 16.70 15.02 11.19 12.00 3.00 36%

Real GDP(%) 2.54 3.52 27.84 10.00 2.50

Domestic
CPI 629.40 499.40 26.03 8.00 2.00 64%
6.00 1.50
Food CPI 573.30 769.60 25.51
4.00 1.00
Inflation (%) 28.20 21.82 29.24 2.00 0.50
Public Debt (USD Billion) 114.35 108.29 5.60 0.00 0.00
Public Debt (NGN Trillion) 87.91 46.25 90.08 Q3 -21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22 Q4-22 Q1-23 Q2-23 Q3-23

Fiscal Deficit (NGN Trillion) 9.18 10.78 14.84 Norminal Real Linear (Norminal) Linear (Real)
Import (NGN Billion) 8,457.68 5,314.00 59.16 Domestic External

Exports (NGN Billion) 10,346.60 6,487.00 59.50

Current Acct Surplus (USD Billion) 2.87 2.30 24.78
Capital Importation (USD Billion) 0.64 1.06 39.62
External Reserves (USD Billion) 32.90 35.50 7.32
Official Window Versus Parallel Market USD Rates NGN/$1
Official Exchange Rate (NGN) 865.90 461.11 87.79 Quarterly Returns On NGX Indexes
1400
Parallel Market Exchange Rate (NGN) 1,260.00 702.00 79.49
1200 NGX 30
All Share Index 83,042.96 54,232.34 53.12
1000
Corruption Perception Index Rank180 (24/100) 150.00 150.00 0.00 PREMIUM
800
OIL&GAS
600
CONSUMER GDS
400
INDUSTRIAL
200
0 BANKING

ASI

0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00

USD(NAFEM) USD(P. MKT) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Sources: National Bureau of Statistics, ngnrates.com, FMDQ, NGX, Transparency International, CBN
The Domestic Economy 4/4 |Multi-Dimensional Poverty Index
• 60% of Nigerians are
Multidimensionally Poor
• This represents 133 Million
persons
Dimensions (Access)
• Health : 34.4%
• Education : 17.9%
• Living Standard : 33.6%
• Work & Shock: 14.1%
• 65% of MPP live in the North
• 35% of MPP live in the south
• Bayelsa, Sokoto, Kebbi,
Gombe States, the Worst
Poverty hit States.
• 4 out of 10 Nigerians
Experience Monetary
Deprivation
• 6 out of 10 Nigerians are
Multidimensionally poor
• 67.5% of Children (0-17 years)
are Multidimensionally Poor.
• This affects school enrolment
and portends a serious social
problem in the future.
• Explains the high incidence of
out of school children
• Urban Poverty is 42.0% of
Urban Population
• Rural Poverty is 72.0% of
Rural Population
• Displacements due to
insecurity a factor in key areas
in the NE, NW, NC Zones.
• This takes it toll at economic
and productive activities in
the affected areas. Stifling
lives and livelihoods.
Nigeria 2024 | Growth Drivers

1 Economic Diversification
• The Nigerian economy is largely a mono-economy in terms of revenue generation.
• Crude oil exports remain disproportionately the largest foreign exchange earner at 90% of all government revenues.
• In terms of GDP, oil contributes 5.48% while non-oil sectors contribute 94.52%.
• This indicates that Nigeria cannot grow its real economy relying on the oil sector. The linkages within the oil sector are not sufficient to lift the economy out of
poverty in terms of job creation (employment). Agriculture (29%), manufacturing (18%), services 53%), hold the greatest potential of reversing multi-dimensional
poverty.

2 Stable Monetary & Fiscal Policies

• To enhance fiscal sustainability, efforts should focus on reducing governance expenses, implementing fiscal discipline through cuts in non-essential spending, and
enhancing public service efficiency. Improving transparency and accountability in government spending is crucial for building public trust and attracting foreign
investment.
• Considering global circumstances and the debt default rates in developing economies, the government can negotiate with creditors to restructure debt, extending
maturities for more manageable repayments and lower interest rates.
• Expanding the tax base, improving tax collection, and introducing additional income streams like VAT and property taxes are essential.
• CBN should uphold a restrictive monetary policy to counteract inflation while maintaining positive real interest rates to encourage savings and foreign investment.
• A clear-cut policy on the exchange rate should be in place to enable all parties have a sense of the government’s trajectory, provide transparency and enable
households and firms plan, make informed decisions, and avoid unexpected costs.

3 Security & Anti-Corruption

• The security challenges in the country affect the socio-economic development of the economy, its implication include human displacements, disrupting agriculture and
its value chain, impeding on supply and logistics, increasing the cost of doing business (importation of inputs due to reduced local capacity, private provision of
security, increased risk premiums etc.), and loss in government revenue due to oil bunkering and theft, illegal solid mineral mining .
• Corruption distorts the economic allocation system by increasing the running cost of the economy, deepening income inequalities, entrenching poverty. Corruption is
basically a leakage that should be plugged.

4 Public Private Partnership

• Nigeria’s debt and its repayment obligations are not sustainable. The allocated percentage for debt servicing exceeds that for capital expenditure in 2024. Debt servicing
is valued at NGN8.25trillion, while Capex is NGN7.72trillion
• Given the infrastructural gap in the country, non-debt approaches like concessioning, PPP, Build Operate and Transfer, will ease the strain on government.
Nigeria 2024 | Growth Sectors

1 MSMEs
• The size of Nigeria's informal economy is estimated to be 57.7% of the GDP, which implies that more than half of the total production of goods and services in Nigeria
happen in the informal sector. This informal economy is a subset of MSMEs.
• MSMEs have a workforce engagement of over 80% and contributing to over 50% of the nation's GDP, the c40 million MSMEs play a pivotal role in our economic
framework. Serving as the backbone of our economy, their capacity to swiftly adapt to market dynamics, promote local innovation, and cultivate entrepreneurship
positions them as a significant influence in shaping the economic trajectory.
• MSMEs cut across almost all sectors of the economy.
• Finance, electricity, transport cost, are key challenges which MSMEs face. However, specialized clusters can mitigate this challenges.
2 Agriculture
• Nigeria's fertile land and favorable climate are advantageous for agricultural development, contributing to food security and export opportunities.
• Agriculture in Nigeria is categorized into four main sectors: agricultural production, fishing, livestock, and forestry. Crop production stands out as the largest segment,
contributing approximately 87.6% to the total output. Following this, cattle, fishing, and forestry contribute 8.1%, 3.2%, and 1.1%, respectively. Agriculture retains its
paramount importance as Nigeria's most crucial industry in terms of employment of labor (36% of the labor force) and export earnings potential.
• Nigeria has an agricultural trade deficit of NGN690billion despite the favorable conditions in weather, arable land and manpower.
• The challenges within the sector include weak value chain (value add, forward and backward linkages), outdated agricultural systems, post-harvest losses, inadequate
extension services, and insecurity. These challenges represent opportunities for investment.
• Standardization of inputs and subsequent outputs will play a major role in the quality of agricultural exports. Agencies like NAFDAC, SON, NAQS, have roles to play
ensuring best practice to enhance profitability in the agricultural sector.

3 Technology
• Nigeria has a growing technology sector, with many startups and companies focusing on mobile payments, e-commerce, and other areas. An estimated 126.6 million
people (60% of the population) are under 25years old, largely tech savvy with a mobile and internet penetration currently at 39.92% (global average is 49%, African
average is 21%).
• For content, E-commerce and other uses, WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter, have 94.9%, 88.8%, 69.4%, 61.2% engagement respectively.
• The opportunities in technology cut across almost every sector, Fintech (the flagship in the fleet), Agrictech, Edtech, Healthtech, Medtech, Proptech
• Greater 5G penetration will support the application of the Internet of Things, Machine Learning, and Artificial Intelligence in the way we live and do business.
• Difficulties in accessing capital, manpower with requisite skill sets, mentorship represent some challenges, but they also represent opportunities in the development
of Startup incubators and Accelerators.
• Incubators and accelerators for startups are initiatives crafted to facilitate the growth and success of early-stage companies. These initiatives offer entrepreneurs
access to resources, mentorship, funding, office space, and a nurturing community of like-minded individuals.

NAFDAC: National Agency for Food and Drug Administration, SON: Standards Organization of Nigeria, NAQS: National Agricultural Quarantine Services.
Nigeria 2024 | Growth Sectors Cont.

4 Finance & Services

• The finance and services sectors, including banking, telecommunications, and e-commerce, play a vital role in driving economic growth and innovation.
• The third-quarter GDP performance of 2023 was predominantly fueled by the Services sector, experiencing a growth rate of 3.99% and contributing 52.70% to the
overall GDP.
• In real terms, the non-oil industry exhibited a rise of 2.75%. This growth was primarily propelled by key sub-sectors, including Information and Communication
(Telecommunication), Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions), Agriculture (Crop production), Trade, Construction, and Real Estate. These sectors collectively
contributed to the positive GDP growth observed in the third quarter of 2023..
• At the Nigerian Exchange, Telecommunications and Financial Services posted a YTD return ranging from 25%-100%, with huge capacity for growth.

5 Energy
• Nigeria's energy sector, including oil and gas, renewable energy, and power generation, continues to attract investment for both domestic and regional development.
• Nigeria Energy Transition Plan is the nations pathway to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, it targets the attainment of emissions’ reduction across 5 key sectors;
power, cooking, oil and gas, transport and industry, by bringing modern energy services to the full population*.
• The Working Group of the NETP has been tasked to secure at least $10 billion financing commitment to kickstart the implementation of Nigeria’s Energy Transition
Plan by COP27.
• Nigeria possesses proven energy resources, comprising extensive oil and natural gas reserves, ample sunlight, and significant wind potential. These require not only
fresh /new investment but also replacement investment in already existing plants (green and brown field investments).
• Electricity Act 2023 aims to consolidate the laws relating to electricity in Nigeria across the entire value chain of the Nigerian Power Sector, including the integration of
renewable energy to Nigeria’s energy mix. The Act aims to encourage state government participation in the power sector and increase private sector investment.

6 Manufacturing

• The manufacturing sector offers significant potential for job creation and economic diversification by increasing local production and reducing imports.
• Real GDP growth in the manufacturing sector in the third quarter of 2023 was 0.48% (year-on-year), higher than the same quarter of 2022 and lower than the
preceding quarter by 2.39% points and 1.72% points respectively.
• The establishment of a unified African market through the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) offers a compelling opportunity for the growth of
manufacturing in Nigeria.
• A consolidated market of over 1.3 billion African citizens and a combined GDP exceeding $3.4 trillion, AfCFTA serves as a catalyst for shared prosperity. Manufacturing
plays a crucial role in job creation, heightened productivity, and fostering innovation.
• Nigeria is experiencing a surge in demand for manufactured goods, driven by its expanding population and its status as home to approximately 50 million middle-class
residents.

*https://energytransition.gov.ng/
Nigeria 2024 | Conclusion

• Nigeria's economic outlook for 2024 is marked by considerable uncertainty. Despite persistent challenges, there exist opportunities for progress
and development. Successfully navigating these challenges and unlocking the nation's full economic potential hinges significantly on the
government's unwavering commitment to implementing sound policies, ensuring efficient execution, and fostering a conducive business
environment. Key areas requiring attention include diversification, inflation control, exchange rate stability, governance, and transparency.

• The economic growth forecast for Nigeria in 2024 is modest, with an expected increase ranging from 2.5% to 3.5%. This rate is relatively low,
underscoring the need for proactive measures to stimulate and sustain growth. Notably, the commencement of operations at the Dangote refinery
in Q1FY2024 and the expected operationalization of the Port Harcourt refinery by Q2FY2024 are anticipated to play pivotal roles in reshaping the
economic landscape.

• The successful operation of these refineries is projected to contribute to a notable expansion of the nation's trade surplus. Additionally, the
increased domestic refining capacity is expected to lead to a significant reduction in the need for imports, thereby positively impacting economic
growth. These developments emphasize the crucial role of strategic initiatives and industrial activities in bolstering Nigeria's economic resilience
and fostering a more robust economic landscape in the coming year.
Thank You!