1 MAY 2022 REID ET AL.

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Tropical, Subtropical, and Extratropical Atmospheric Rivers in the Australian Region

KIMBERLEY J. REID,a,b ANDREW D. KING,a,b TODD P. LANE,a,b AND DEBRA HUDSONc

a
School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
b
Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales,
Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
c
Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

(Manuscript received 30 August 2021, in final form 12 January 2022)

ABSTRACT: Studies of atmospheric rivers (ARs) over Australia have, so far, only focused on northwest cloudband–type
weather systems. Here we perform a comprehensive analysis of AR climatology and impacts over Australia that includes
not only northwesterly systems, but easterly and extratropical ARs also. We quantify the impact of ARs on mean and
extreme rainfall including assessing how the origin location of ARs can alter their precipitation outcomes. We found a
strong relationship between ARs and extreme rainfall in the agriculturally significant Murray–Daring basin region. We test
the hypothesis that the tropical and subtropical originating ARs we observe in Australasia differ from canonical extratropi-
cal ARs by examining the vertical structure of ARs grouped by origin location. We found that in the moisture abundant
tropics and subtropics, wind speed drives the intensity of ARs, while in the extratropics, the strength of an AR is largely
determined by moisture availability. Finally, we examine the modulation of AR frequency by different climate modes. We
find weak (but occasionally significant) correlations between ARs frequency and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Indian
Ocean dipole, and the southern annular mode. However, there is a stronger relationship between the phases of the
Madden–Julian oscillation and tropical AR frequency, which is an avenue for potential skill in forecasting ARs on subsea-
sonal time scales.
KEYWORDS: Australia; Synoptic climatology; Atmospheric river; Rainfall; Mass fluxes/transport

1. Introduction of ARs in Australia that have been published have only

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow regions of enhanced
water vapor transport in the lower troposphere (Zhu et al.
1998). Globally, ARs are associated with natural hazards such
as extreme rainfall and floods (Kingston et al. 2016; Lavers
et al. 2011; Ralph et al. 2006), extreme winds (Waliser and
Guan 2017) and landslides (Wills et al. 2016). A recent review
from Payne et al. (2020) discussing the response of ARs to cli-
mate change highlighted that ARs in the Australasian region
are particularly understudied, although there has been some
work showing ARs play a considerable role in New Zealand
hydrology (Kingston et al. 2016; Little et al. 2019; Prince et al.
2021; Reid et al. 2021). Global studies of atmospheric rivers
have shown that ARs do occur over Australia (Guan and
Waliser 2017; Knippertz et al. 2013). A more detailed Australian-
focused study is warranted given the observed effects of ARs on
natural hazards.
In Australia, ARs are usually discussed in the context of
the northwest cloudband (NWCB): a large-scale cloudband
that extends across the continent from the northwest of
Australia to the south or southeast and can be associated with
an AR (Tapp and Barrell 1984). As a result, the few studies
Reid’s ORCID: 0000-0001-5972-6015.
King’s ORCID: 0000-0001-9006-5745.
Lane’s ORCID: 0000-0003-0171-6927.
Hudson’s ORCID: 0000-0002-0129-0922.
Corresponding author: Kimberley J. Reid, kim.reid@monash.
edu
focused on a specific type of AR}those that resemble the
NWCB (e.g., Black et al. 2021; Chen et al. 2020). However,
recent global work has suggested that ARs are predominantly
extratropical (Lora et al. 2020; Zhang et al. 2019), whereas
the NWCB is thought of as a tropical–extratropical interac-
tion (Wright 1997). The official definition by the American
Meteorological Society describes ARs as typically occurring
ahead of a cold front of an extratropical cyclone (Ralph et al.
2018). However, this definition was based on observation
studies of ARs in the extratropics (Ralph et al. 2005, 2018). In
comparison, cool season NWCBs are typically associated with
convergence of warm moist tropical air and cool, dry midlati-
tude air due to a refracted Rossby wave synoptic pattern in
the subtropics (Reid et al. 2019). This question of whether
ARs correspond to the same meteorological pattern was
recently discussed in a perspective paper by Gimeno et al.
(2021). This led us to one of the main questions addressed in
this paper: Is there a difference between tropical and extra-
tropical atmospheric rivers in the Australian region? To
investigate this question, we categorized ARs based on where
they formed. We then examined the differences and similari-
ties in frequency, rainfall, and vertical structure of ARs that
form at low-latitudes compared to midlatitudes.
We selected three source regions for Australian ARs
(shown in Fig. 2): northwest Australia and parts of the Indian
Ocean (NW; 258–58S, 808–1308E), eastern Australia and parts
of the Pacific Ocean (PAC; 358–108S, 1428–1798E), and over
the Southern Ocean (SO; 558–358S, 618–1508E). NW ARs
were chosen to represent the canonical NWCB. NWCBs form
in the east Indian Ocean and are associated with rainfall in

DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0606.1
Ó 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright
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2698 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
the northwest, central and southern Australian regions (Reid
et al. 2019; Telcik and Pattiaratchi 2014). Recent work on
Australian rainfall sources suggested that a considerable por-
tion of moisture that precipitated over the continent origi-
nated in waters east of Australia (Holgate et al. 2020).
Additionally, Hauser et al. (2020) showed that wet winter–
spring months over eastern Australia are often driven by
enhanced warm conveyor belt activity from the east. Dacre
et al. (2019) found that warm conveyor belts and ARs are
strongly linked. Additionally, Guan and Waliser (2019) found
the waters off the east coast of Australia to be a main AR
genesis location for the Southern Hemisphere. For these rea-
sons, we selected a region off the east coast of Australia as
our second origin location (PAC). Finally, given ARs are typi-
cally associated with cold fronts and extratropical cyclones, it
was pertinent to include an extratropical region. Southern
Australian rainfall typically is associated with the passage of
fronts and extratropical cyclones (Pook et al. 2013); however,
the role of ARs in this region has not yet been analyzed.
ARs have been identified as major sources of mean and
extreme rainfall particularly in the midlatitudes (Lavers et al.
2011; Ralph et al. 2006; Viale et al. 2018). While there has not
been a study on the AR contribution to rainfall in Australia
at a regional scale, there are global studies that include this
region (e.g., Arabzadeh et al. 2020; Guan and Waliser 2015).
The Paltan et al. (2017) global analysis of ARs and hydrologi-
cal extremes in land surface models suggested that ARs con-
tributed up to about 10%–15% of annual soil moisture in
Australia with the maximum contributions occurring in the
northwest, southeast and southwest of the continent. How-
ever, given the limitations of modeling global rainfall, there
was a need for an in situ observations based rainfall analysis
to confirm the role of ARs in Australian hydrology. Arabza-
deh et al. (2020) estimate that ARs contribute between 30%
and 80% of Australia’s rainfall with the greatest contribution
over the southern states. However, the AR identification
method used tends to overestimate AR frequency in the inte-
rior of continents (e.g., Fig. 6b from Rutz et al. 2019).
The vertical structure of extratropical ARs has been well
documented due to multiple field campaigns involving drop-
sonde observations off the west coast of North America (e.g.,
CALJET and PACJET; Ralph et al. 2004, 2005). Dropsonde
observations typically showed a low-level jet at about 900 hPa
reaching wind speeds of between 14 and 32 m s21 for different
ARs (Ralph et al. 2005). Mixing ratio values in the jet were
between 7 and 10 g kg21. A more recent observational study
by Rauber et al. (2020) of an AR over the Southern Ocean
near Australia found a similar vertical structure to the earlier
Northern Hemisphere studies. They found the maximum spe-
cific humidity in the AR was around 11–12 g kg21, the low-
level jet was at about 850 hPa and wind speeds in the jet were
about 15 m s21. We explore the difference in vertical structure
of tropical, subtropical and extratropical ARs in this study.
The link between ARs and some climate modes has been
well established in the Northern Hemisphere (Payne and
Magnusdottir 2014). In the North Pacific, there is a strong
poleward shift in AR frequency during La Niña and equator-
ward shift during El Niño, which is likely due to the
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modulation of the storm tracks with El Niño–Southern Oscil-
lation (ENSO; Mundhenk et al. 2016). However, they also
noted considerable regional and seasonal variations in AR
response to ENSO. For example, along the West Coast of the
United States, El Niño was associated with increased AR fre-
quencies in boreal winter but decreased frequencies in boreal
summer. In Australia, there are well established links
between rainfall and ENSO/Indian ocean dipole (IOD; Ris-
bey et al. 2009; Ummenhofer et al. 2009), so a relationship
between these climate modes and ARs is likely to exist. The
southern annular mode (SAM) is known to influence the fre-
quency of landfalling fronts over southern Australia (Mene-
ghini et al. 2007), and therefore is likely to impact Southern
Ocean ARs. The ENSO–AR, IOD–AR, and SAM–AR rela-
tionships have not been explored previously over Australia.
The modulation of ARs by various climate drivers in the Aus-
tralian region will therefore be assessed in this study.
Subseasonal variability in ARs has also been linked with
climate modes for other parts of the world (e.g., Guan et al.
2012). Previous studies have found increases in AR frequency
in the central and eastern Pacific during the Madden–Julian
oscillation (MJO) phases 7–8 (Wheeler and Hendon 2004),
while it was found that AR frequency decreases over large
areas of the North Pacific during phases 3–4 (Mundhenk et al.
2016; Zhou et al. 2021). Additionally, Mundhenk et al. (2018)
and Baggett et al. (2017) found that skillful subseasonal fore-
casts of anomalous AR frequency along the U.S. West Coast
were possible five weeks in advance using the MJO–AR rela-
tionship. Sellars et al. (2017) showed that the quasi-biennial
oscillation (QBO) can affect AR frequency over southeast
Australia, and the QBO and MJO have been found to be
strongly linked (Martin et al. 2021). Given that the MJO can
impact ARs in the western United States, we hypothesized
that the MJO–AR relationship will be considerably stronger
over Australia since MJO activity is physically closer to Australia
and there are studies linking the MJO to Australian rainfall vari-
ability (e.g., Wheeler et al. 2009). Therefore, the potential for
skillful subseasonal forecasts of ARs may be even greater over
Australia that the western United States.
The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive analy-
sis of ARs over Australia and fill this key regional gap in the
AR literature. We have tested to what extent ARs are a key
driver of rainfall over Australia and whether Australia is
affected by both the canonical extratropical ARs ahead of a
cold front and ARs originating from the tropics (e.g., Knip-
pertz et al. 2013). We have analyzed the rainfall associated
with ARs and modulation of AR frequency by climate drivers
and whether these results depend on where the AR origi-
nates. The difference in vertical structure of ARs was exam-
ined to test the hypothesis that the structure and processes
governing tropical, subtropical and extratropical ARs may
vary. This could have implications for climate change projec-
tions of ARs due to the thermodynamic versus dynamic driv-
ers of ARs responding differently to warming. Finally, we aim
to understand whether ARs in Australia are strongly modu-
lated by ENSO, IOD, SAM, and the MJO, as this may allow
for skillful subseasonal forecasts of ARs and related rainfall
in this region.
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1 MAY 2022 REID ET AL.
2. Methods
a. Datasets
We used gridded daily rainfall data from the Australian
Water Availability Project (AWAP; Jones et al. 2009) at a
0.258 3 0.258 resolution. Although higher resolutions of
AWAP are available, this coarser resolution was used due to
low station density over large regions of Australia. Sea Sur-
face Temperature (SST) data are from the Hadley Centre
Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset
(HADISST v1.1; Rayner et al. 2003; National Center for
Atmospheric Research Staff 2021). The Niño-3.4 index was
calculated from HadISST SST data using the method
described by Trenberth and National Center for Atmospheric
Research Staff (2020). The dipole mode index (DMI) was
also calculated using HadISST SST data and is the difference
in the mean temperature anomaly between the west Indian
(108N–108S, 508–708E) and east Indian (08–108S, 908–1108E)
Oceans. The phase and amplitude of the Madden–Julian oscil-
lation (MJO) was obtained from the Australian Bureau of
Meteorology (Bureau of Meteorology 2021) and is defined by
the Real-time Multivariate MJO index (RMM index)
described in Wheeler and Hendon (2004). The SAM index
was obtained from the National Weather Service Climate Pre-
diction Centre (Mo 2000).
b. Atmospheric river identification
We used an objective automated algorithm (Reid et al.
2020) to identify ARs between 1980 and 2019 using hourly
integrated water vapor transport (IVT) from the European
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis at
the native resolution (0.258 3 0.258) (ERA5; Hersbach et al.
2019). The AR dataset was produced as part of the Atmo-
spheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project Tier
2 Reanalyses (Shields et al. 2018). The specific algorithm is
the “Reid500” algorithm (Reid et al. 2020), which is so named
because it uses an absolute IVT threshold of 500 kg m21 s21
to extract AR-like objects. The same threshold is used for
all latitudes. For an object to be defined as an AR, its
length must exceed 2000 km and the length to width ratio
of the object must exceed two. While the 500 kg m21 s21
threshold is more restrictive than most other absolute
methods (Rutz et al. 2019), higher thresholds are less sensi-
tive to specific dataset parameters such as resolution and
regridding methods making the results more robust (Reid
et al. 2020).
c. Atmospheric river tracking
For this study, we added a tracking tool to the Reid500
identification algorithm. This allowed us to identify the origin
of ARs and track them during their full life cycle. Rather than
tracking the entire AR object using overlapping shapes as in
other AR literature (e.g., Guan and Waliser 2019; Zhou et al.
2018), we tracked the center of mass (centroid) of the AR
similar to front tracking techniques (e.g., Simmonds et al.
2012). We located the AR centroid at time t and searched
within a 500-km radius for another centroid at time t 1 1 h
2699
using hourly AR data described in section 2b. In the rare case
of two centroids being located within the search radius, the
algorithm selects the closest centroid to track. The size of the
search radius was determined via analyses of case studies. We
repeated this until the AR was defined as terminated, i.e., a
centroid was not identified nearby for 5 h. The 5-h threshold
for termination was to account for “flickering” where ARs
may temporarily drop below the IVT threshold for a few time
steps especially as they cross land. Without this requirement,
the tracking algorithm may separate AR events which,
dynamically, should be the same event. In addition, the cen-
troid of an AR is the center of mass of the ellipse that is fitted
to the region of enhanced IVT (described in Reid et al. 2020)
and therefore the change in centroid location between time
steps is not solely dependent on the translational movement
of the AR but also changes to the AR intensity and geometry.
This is another reason for why we allow 5 h before declaring
the AR terminated. For our analyses, we only included AR
events that lasted longer than 3 h. We recorded a mean life-
time propagation speed of 53.6 km h21, which is comparable
to other methods. For example, Zhou et al. (2018) calculate a
mean speed of ∼60 km h21 while Guan and Waliser (2019)
found a mean propagation speed of ∼40 km h21.
d. Atmospheric river–related rainfall and vertical structure
After identifying and tracking each AR event, we produced
0.258 3 0.258 masks of ARs over Australia for each day (using
the sum of the hourly masks) between 1980 and 2019 to match
the gridded rainfall data. The masks represent the footprint of
IVT . 500 kg m21 s21 for all identified AR objects. AR and
non-AR rainfall was separated using these masks. We tested
the assumption that AR associated rainfall could reasonably
occur within IVT values less than 500 kg m21 s21 by dilating
the masks by up to 0.58. However, we found this did not alter
our results noticeably leading us to conclude that most of the
rainfall likely occurs within the high intensity IVT regions.
Therefore, our AR masks were able to capture most of the
AR associated rainfall. This is consistent with Fig. 15 from
Ralph et al. (2004).
The annual maximum n-day rainfall, Rxn, was used to
analyze the probability of AR associated multiday rainfall
events. The moving sum of daily rainfall was calculated and
attributed to an AR event if an AR was present on 1, 2, and
3 of the days for 1-, 3-, and 5-day rainfall totals, respectively.
We analyzed the vertical structure of ARs by examining the
specific humidity (q), wind speed (|U|) and magnitude of
water vapor flux [product of q and (|U|) at each of the
20 pressure levels in ERA5 between 1000 and 300 hPa] at
the location of the centroid for each time step in every AR
event.
3. Frequency analyses
There is strong interannual variability in AR frequency in
the Australasian region (Fig. 1a). ARs are most frequent in
austral summer and autumn (DJF and MAM; Fig. 1b), and
AR events are least frequent in austral spring SON. There is
a positive trend of 1.18 AR events per year in the
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2700 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 35

FIG. 1. Annual AR count per (a) year and (b) season from 1980 to 2019 for the Australasian
region (domain indicated in Fig. 2).

Australasian region which is significant at p , 0.01 using
Monte Carlo simulations. We have separated the ARs that
affect Australia into tropical, subtropical and extratropical fla-
vors based on the origin regions of ARs. Figures 2a–c shows
the three origin regions for each of the three flavors as well as
the frequency footprint of ARs that are first detected in those
regions. From 1980 to 2019, approximately 750 AR events
were first detected in the NW region, 1500 in the PAC and
7800 in the SO. Figures 2d–f shows the seasonal occurrence
of ARs from each region.
For the NW and PAC regions, AR occurrence peaks in aus-
tral summer (DJF). Prince et al. (2021) found a similar seasonal
cycle of ARs over New Zealand (more frequent in the warmer
months) despite using a different AR detection method. Simi-
larly, Guan and Waliser (2019) showed anomalous AR genesis
to the northwest of Australia during November–March. Studies
of East Asian ARs also found a peak in frequency during the
warm season (Kamae et al. 2017; Pan and Lu 2020) as did Knip-
pertz et al. (2013) in their climatology of Tropical Moisture
Exports over Australia. This warm season peak is important
because most preliminary studies of ARs were focused on the
western coast of North America and Europe where ARs are
primarily thought of as a cool season phenomenon (e.g., Ralph
et al. 2005). Therefore, analyses of the structure of Northern

FIG. 2. Percentage of days (1980–2019) with AR at each grid box for ARs that originate in the (a) northwest, (b) Pacific Ocean, and
(c) Southern Ocean. Boxes indicate region of origin. Note the nonlinear color bar. Total number of AR events for each season (1980–2019)
for ARs originating in the (d) northwest, (e) Pacific Ocean, and (f) Southern Ocean.

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1 MAY 2022 REID ET AL.
FIG. 3. Annual mean seasonal rainfall percentage (relative to total seasonal rainfall) associated with ARs for (a) DJF, (b) MAM,
(d) JJA, and (e) SON. Total percentage of rainfall (all seasons) (c) associated with ARs and (f) not associated with ARs. Gray regions cor-
respond to low station density.
Hemisphere, wintertime, extratropical ARs may not be reflec-
tive of ARs globally. The seasonal cycle of Southern Ocean
ARs is less pronounced than tropical NW and subtropical PAC
events. We observe that extratropical AR frequency also peaks
in the warmer seasons likely due to enhanced moisture avail-
ability (in DJF) and strong meridional temperature gradients
(in MAM).
The results of Fig. 2 suggest that ARs originating in the
tropics and subtropics sometimes shift poleward and interact
with the midlatitudes. For example, northwest cloudbands
can converge with cold fronts and bring enhanced rainfall to
Southern Australia (Reid et al. 2019). Conversely, ARs origi-
nating in the extratropics tend to follow a more zonal path
(likely driven by the prevailing westerlies) with little evidence
of substantial equatorward movement.
4. ARs and Australian rainfall
The AR dataset, outlined in section 2, includes a binary
mask of all identified ARs at daily time steps on a 0.258 3
0.258 grid. This allows us to separate the precipitation into
AR and non-AR associated precipitation. We note that our
estimates are conservative given we use a restrictive AR iden-
tification algorithm with a relatively high IVT threshold.
However, this gives us confidence that the rainfall we attri-
bute to ARs is associated with these systems or mesoscale
convective activity embedded within the ARs. Figure 3 shows
the percentage of total rainfall over the entire period
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(1980–2019) associated with all ARs for each season. Regions
of low station density have been masked out (i.e., over parts
of central and Western Australia). During DJF, up to about
35% of rainfall in the east is associated with ARs. There is a
very weak signal in the northwest which is unexpected
because DJF is when ARs originating from the NW are most
frequent. We suspect this result is because the most extreme
rainfall in the northwest during the warmer months comes
from Tropical Cyclones and about one-third of rainfall comes
from isolated thunderstorms (Clark et al. 2018; Lavender and
Abbs 2012). Even though ARs do contribute to rainfall in the
northwest (e.g., Fig. 4), the relative contribution is small com-
pared to other weather systems during DJF. Moreover, this
means that the horizontal transport of moisture alone is not
sufficient to cause substantial rainfall. Instability from terrain
or a front, or for the moisture to be transported sufficiently
poleward so that through adiabatic ascent the air can become
saturated are potential necessary processes required for the
enhanced horizontal moisture transport to translate into
enhanced precipitation.
In the Murray–Darling basin (MDB; Fig. 5) region,
30%–50% of precipitation is associated with ARs during Aus-
tral autumn and winter. This result emphasizes the impor-
tance of understanding ARs in this region. The MDB is a key
agriculture region in Australia, and its economic and societal
value depends strongly on rainfall (Adamson et al. 2009). In
spring (SON), there are generally fewer ARs; however, they
contribute approximately 20% of southeast Australia’s
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2702 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
FIG. 4. Mean daily rainfall attributable to ARs originating in the (a) northwest, (b) Pacific Ocean, and (c) Southern Ocean during AR rain
days. Gray regions correspond to low station density.
rainfall. Spring rainfall in the southeast is mostly associated
with the passage of Southern Ocean ARs ahead of fronts
(Fig. 4). The maximum in annual AR rainfall over southeast
Australia (Fig. 3c) and magnitude of over 30% was also
observed by Guan and Waliser (2015; Fig. 9i) in their global
analysis which used a different method for identifying ARs.
Figure 4 illustrates the mean daily rainfall attributable to
ARs from the three origin locations. ARs from the northwest
generally bring rain to the northern half of Australia. In fact,
Fig. 4 suggests that NW ARs do not cause significant rain in
the southeast. This appears to contradict the notion in NWCB
literature that NWCBs cause rain over southern Australia
(e.g., Reid et al. 2019; Telcik and Pattiaratchi 2014; Wright
1988). However, this is likely due to the restrictive AR identi-
fication algorithm used in this study. Moisture crossing the
dry continent from the northwest would likely have diverged
such that the IVT threshold was no longer met (i.e., Fig. 2a
where AR frequency decreases with increasing latitude
FIG. 5. Number of the top 100 rainfall days (ranked by amount)
at each grid box that occurred during an AR. Gray regions corre-
spond to low station density. Dashed outline indicates the bound-
ary of the Murray–Darling basin.
VOLUME 35
toward the southeast). ARs from the PAC generally lead to
rainfall over the northeast of Australia. We observe some
orographic enhancement of precipitation along the east coast
in Fig. 4 as easterly ARs interact with the Great Dividing
Range. Finally, the most frequent ARs, those originating in
the Southern Ocean, lead to rainfall over most of southern
Australia. It is likely that many of these are linked to fronts.
ARs contribute up to 250 mm yr21 in Western Tasmania
where orography and the position of the winter storm tracks
lead to high frontal rainfall amounts (not shown).
A major motivation for researching ARs is to understand
their relationship with extreme rainfall and flooding events.
First, we ranked the top 100 rainfall days (by daily total) at
each grid point and assessed whether an AR was present over
that grid point for each of those 100 days. Figure 5 shows the
number of the top 100 rainfall days that occurred coincident
with an AR. For most of the country, 5–15 of the heaviest 100
rainfall days occurred during ARs. However, for most of New
South Wales and the Murray–Darling basin region, almost
half of the top 100 extreme rainfall days coincided with an
AR. Waliser and Guan (2017) also found a similar frequency
of AR contribution to extreme rainfall over southeast Austra-
lia (36%–48%) despite using a different AR identification
method and rainfall dataset. This suggests that these results
are likely robust and not sensitive to the method used.
Duration can sometimes be more important than instanta-
neous intensity for hydrological hazards (Yin et al. 2019). We
examined the probability ratio [Eq. (1)] of the Rxn event,
where n is duration of event in days, occurring during AR ver-
sus non-AR events (Fig. 6). We define an Rxn event as occur-
ring during an AR if the majority of days included an AR at
that location. Values above one indicate that the wettest mul-
tiday rainfall event for any given year is more likely to coin-
cide with an AR than not. Whereas values below one indicate
that the wettest multiday rainfall event typically does not
coincide with an AR (i.e., it may occur during a tropical
cyclone or cut-off low instead). Stippling indicates that 90%
of bootstrap iterations agree on the probability ratio being
above or below one. We found that the west coast, central-
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1 MAY 2022 REID ET AL. 2703

FIG. 6. Probability ratio of multiday rainfall extremes associated with ARs to non-AR events. Rxn is the period with the greatest n-day
rainfall amount for each year (1980–2019) for all wet days (rainfall . 1 mm). Gray regions correspond to regions of low station density or
low AR occurrence. Stippling indicates regions where we have high confidence in the direction of the probability ratio [Eq. (1)] either
exceeding or being below one due to bootstrapping (at least 90% of iterations agree on being above or below one).

east and southeast of Australia are more likely to experience
the wettest multiday rainfall event per year during an AR
event than non-AR events. The west coast of Australia is
5 times more likely to experience the wettest 5-day period for
that year if an AR is present, and the east coast is approxi-
mately 2 times more likely to experience the wettest 5-day
period during an AR event. The probability increases with
increased event duration for the west coast but remains simi-
lar or decreases for the east coast:
No: of times AR occured on Rxn day
No: of Rxn days(i:e:; No: of years in dataset)
Probability Ratio 
No: of AR days
Total No: of days
(1)
5. Vertical structure of tropical, subtropical, and
extratropical originating ARs
The results from sections 3 and 4 indicate that there are dif-
ferences in the frequency and precipitation of tropical and sub-
tropical, and extratropical originating ARs. Therefore, we
wanted to understand why this was the case by examining the
vertical structure of ARs first detected in three different
domains. Figure 7 shows the range in vertical profiles of water
vapor flux for each AR domain. We observed that the strength
of the SO ARs is less variable than for the NW and PAC ARs.
Overall, the strongest ARs in the Australian region originate
in the tropical–subtropical Pacific.
A key question for this study was whether intensity changes
in ARs were driven more by changes in moisture or changes
in wind. We attempted to answer this by assessing the mean
vertical profile of specific humidity and wind speeds for the
weakest 5%, middle 5%, and strongest 5% of AR events at
each of the three origin locations (Fig. 8). Given the intensity
of water vapor flux should be somewhat evenly spaced
between the weak, middle, and strong ARs as in Fig. 7, the
spacing between the weak, middle, and strong profiles of
q and u should indicate whether the wind or moisture was
more important for driving AR intensity.
Figure 8a shows the mean life cycle vertical profile of specific
humidity for NW ARs. The moisture profiles of the weak
(blue), middle (red), and strongest (green) ARs are very similar.
Conversely, the increase in windspeeds between the weak, mid-
dle and strong ARs is much greater (Fig. 8b) This indicates that
wind speed dictates the difference between a middle and strong
AR in the NW. We show this quantitatively in Fig. 8c. Figures
8c, 8f, and 8i represent the normalized difference between the
strongest and middle vertical profiles of both specific humidity
: (yellow line) and wind speed (purple line). The difference was
normalized by the values in the vertical profiles of the strongest
ARs so that we could compare the relative contribution of the
thermodynamics and wind in strengthening ARs. We observe
similar behavior in the Pacific where the specific humidity pro-
files between middle and strong ARs are similar, while the wind
speeds are much stronger for more intense ARs.
The Southern Ocean ARs show a different relationship. The
difference between the wind speeds in middle and strong ARs
are smaller than the difference between the specific humidity.
This suggests that in the tropics and subtropics, where atmo-
spheric moisture is abundant, dynamic forces are the main driver
of intense ARs, whereas in the extratropics, where wind speeds
are generally faster, moisture content dictates the strength of
ARs. In their study of “wet” versus “windy” ARs along the U.S.
West Coast, Gonzales et al. (2020) hypothesized that moisture
dominant ARs are associated with anticyclonic wave breaking,
while wind dominant ARs are associated with cyclonic wave
breaking. While Gonzales et al. and this study explore similar
concepts of moisture versus wind dominance in ARs, it is diffi-
cult to compare our results given the strong regional dependence
(e.g., role of Aleutian low and latitude differences).
The magnitude of the specific humidity and wind speeds of
the extratropical (Southern Ocean) ARs are within the same
range as the dropsonde observations reported by Ralph et al.

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2704 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 35

FIG. 7. The range of vertical profiles of water vapor flux (kg kg21 m s21) for ARs originating
in the northwest (blue), Pacific Ocean (orange), and Southern Ocean (yellow). Solid lines indi-
cate the 5th percentile of the water vapor flux at each pressure level, dashed lines are the 50th
percentile, and dotted lines are the 95th percentile.

(2005). However, the tropical and subtropical ARs generally
have greater specific humidity values and smaller wind speeds
than the extratropical ARs. Given our large sample size, we
are confident these results are likely to be physical. This result
may have implications for understanding the impact of cli-
mate change on ARs. The moisture driven extratropical ARs
may be more susceptible to the thermodynamic effects of cli-
mate change whereas the wind driven tropical ARs could be
more susceptible to the more uncertain dynamical changes.
6. Relationships with climate modes
ENSO, IOD, SAM and the MJO are key drivers of Austra-
lian rainfall variability (e.g., Risbey et al. 2009). Figure 9
reports the probability ratio [Eq. (2)] of ARs forming during
different phases of these climate modes. The MJO was con-
sidered to be active when the RMM index was greater than
one (Wheeler and Hendon 2004), while the threshold for an
active phase in the other climate modes was based on the sea-
sonal standard deviation of the various indices described in
section 2a. We calculated the uncertainty bars in Fig. 9 via
bootstrapping by calculating the probability ratio on a ran-
domly generated subset that comprised 66% of days between
1980 and 2019. This was repeated 1000 times for every phase.
The error bars show the 10th and 90th percentiles of those
1000 probability ratios:
PR(AR during MJO=ENSO=IOD=SAM phase)


No: of ARs in phase
No: of days in phase
 : (2)
No: of ARs
No: of days
The MJO is a key driver of climate variability over the Aus-
tralian region, but on subseasonal time scales. Similarly, to
Mundhenk et al. (2016), we found AR activity increased in a
region (NW or PAC) when the peak of the convection associ-
ated with the MJO was over or near that region. For example,
AR activity in the NW peaked during MJO active phases 3–5,
and between phases 5–7 in the PAC. Whereas AR activity
decreased in the suppressed phases of the MJO i.e., phases
7–1 for the NW and 1–3 for the PAC (Fig. 9a). ARs originat-
ing in the Southern Ocean did not appear to have a strong
relationship with the MJO, although previous work did find
statistically significant frequency variations in ARs, associated
with the MJO, at mid- and high latitudes in the Northern
Hemisphere (Mundhenk et al. 2018). Specifically, they found
AR frequency differences of up to 8% depending on location
and AR phase. We note that we tested whether there was a
lagged relationship between SO ARs and the MJO too but
did not find a clear relationship. Although our method is dif-
ferent from Mundhenk et al. our results in Fig. 9a suggest that
tropical and subtropical AR frequency modulation by the
MJO in the Australian region is almost an order of magnitude
stronger than the modulation of extratropical ARs in the
North Pacific and Southern Ocean. This is an important find-
ing because, as discussed in section 1, the MJO–AR relation-
ship can be used to make skillful subseasonal predictions of
ARs.
In addition, we found that El Niño events tend to be associ-
ated with suppressed AR formation and La Niña with
enhanced AR formation particularly in the PAC region. This
is not surprising given La Niña is associated with increased
rainfall over Eastern Australian and warmer SSTs in the west-
ern Pacific, while El Niño is associated with reduced rainfall
over Eastern Australia. Moreover, the positive phase of the
IOD is associated with suppressed AR formation in the NW
and PAC likely due to colder SSTs to the northwest of Aus-
tralia. A negative IOD is associated with increased AR for-
mation in the NW and PAC. The relationship between ARs

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1 MAY 2022 REID ET AL. 2705

FIG. 8. Mean vertical profiles of specific humidity (kg kg21) and wind speed (m s21) for the strongest, middle, and weakest 5% of AR
events originating in the (a)–(c) northwest, (d)–(f) Pacific Ocean, and (g)–(i) Southern Ocean. The plots in (c), (f), and (i) show the normal-
ized (by the values in the strongest 5% profiles) difference between the vertical profiles of q and u for strongest and middle 5% of ARs.

and SAM is more complicated with the SAM mostly affecting 7. Summary and conclusions
the PAC ARs in summer (DJF) and NW ARs in winter In this study, we analyzed atmospheric river climatology,
(JJA). impacts and structure over Australia, thereby filling in a key

FIG. 9. Probability ratio [Eq. (2)] of AR occurrence during (a) MJO phases and (b) ENSO,
IOD, and SAM phases. Blue bars show results for northwest ARs, orange bars show results for
Pacific Ocean ARs, and yellow bars show results for Southern Ocean results. Error bars show
the 80% confidence interval (10th–90th percentiles) based on bootstrapping.

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2706 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
regional gap in AR literature. We found that ARs are more
frequent in the warmer months, similar to other studies of
nearby locations. However, we found that ARs contribute up
to about 50% of mean cool season rainfall in the Murray–
Darling basin and over large regions of southern Australia.
Elsewhere, ARs typically contribute 0%–20% of mean rain-
fall. About 15%–50% of the most extreme rainfall days over
the Murray–Darling basin region are associated with ARs. In
the west, multiday rainfall extremes are up to 5 times more
likely during AR events.
Australia is affected by both extratropical and tropical ARs.
Extratropical ARs are much more frequent and cause rainfall
over most of southern Australia. Tropical ARs typically pro-
duce higher daily rainfall totals and also impact large regions.
The IOD and the MJO only have a measurable influence on
tropical and subtropical originating ARs. ENSO and the SAM
modulate ARs from all three origin locations with ENSO hav-
ing the greatest impact on ARs originating east of Australia.
However, the modulation of extratropical AR frequency by
the SAM and ENSO is weak. The relationship between the
MJO and tropical and subtropical ARs over Australia is strong
and indicates the possibility for skillful subseasonal forecasts.
To the authors’ knowledge, we have conducted the first
direct comparison of the vertical structure of tropical, subtrop-
ical and extratropical ARs. We found that in the moisture
abundant tropics and subtropics, wind speeds dictate the inten-
sity of ARs, whereas in the extratropics moisture is the main
driver of whether an AR will be moderate or intense. This
implies that global climate change projections of ARs need to
simulate both the dynamic and thermodynamic response to
warming to realistically forecast changes to AR intensity.
Atmospheric rivers are major source of mean and extreme
rainfall over Australia especially in the agriculturally impor-
tant Murray–Darling region. The vertical structure and result-
ing rainfall of ARs varies depending on where they first are
identified. The most intense ARs typically originate in the
PAC region, while the weakest but most common occur in the
Southern Ocean region. Studying ARs is vital for understand-
ing horizontal moisture transport over Australia and this
paper provides a necessary foundation for further work in this
area especially on topics such as subseasonal forecasting of
rainfall and understanding hydrological climate extremes.
Acknowledgments. The work of K. J. Reid was funded by
an Australian Government Research Training Program
(RTP) Scholarship and the Australian Research Council
(ARC; DE180100638), the work of A. D. King was funded
by the ARC (DE180100638), and the work of T.P. Lane
was funded by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate
Extremes (CE170100023). This research was undertaken with
the assistance of resources from the National Computational
Infrastructure (NCI Australia) supported by the Australian
government. We wish to thank Prof. Julie Arblaster for useful
discussions.
Data availability statement. The link for Tier 1 AR algo-
rithm (uses MERRA2 instead of ERA5) is https://www.
VOLUME 35
earthsystemgrid.org/dataset/ucar.cgd.ccsm4.artmip.tier1.html.
The algorithm is the same, but the Tier 2 data (using ERA5)
will be available following the publication of the ARTMIP
Tier 2 overview studies. The link to ERA5 data is https://cds.
climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-
levels?tab=form. Precipitation data are only available upon
request from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
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