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Gwilliam 2003
Gwilliam 2003
To cite this article: Ken Gwilliam (2003): Urban transport in developing countries, Transport
Reviews: A Transnational Transdisciplinary Journal, 23:2, 197-216
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TRANSPORT REVIEWS, 2003, VOL. 23, NO. 2, 197–216
Based on the recent World Bank urban transport strategy review “Cities on the
move”, the paper examines the critical differences between the urban transport
problems facing cities in the developing and industrialized worlds. Premature
congestion and deteriorating environmental safety and security conditions are seen as
endemic in the developing country cities. Although the proportion of urban space
devoted to movement is often relatively low in the developing world, rates of
motorization are seen to be not untypical of those experienced in industrialized
countries at similar average income levels. Hence rather than explaining the
differences primarily in terms of natural endowments, the paper emphasizes the
different and weaker policy and institutional contexts in which urban transport is
typically performed in developing countries. It argues that the industrialized world, and
particularly the multilateral banks and aid agencies, can make their most effective
contribution to development by concentrating on assisting developing countries to
overcome these institutional impediments to successful urban development.
1. Introduction
The aim of this paper is to examine the ways in which, the extent to which and the
reasons for which the urban transport problems of the developing countries differ from
those of the already industrialized countries. For this purpose, the industrialized countries
are taken to be the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
member countries, excluding Mexico, while developing countries are taken to be those
that qualify as borrowing members of the World Bank, including the transitional
economies of Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
The cities of these developing and transitional economies inevitably differ greatly in
economic, political and demographic characteristics. Income differences largely deter-
mine vehicle ownership. The amount of road infrastructure also tends to grow with
income, but at a slower rate than vehicle ownership. Political history inevitably moulds the
structure of cities, the most notable differences being those between former socialist
planned cities, many of which had widely dispersed pockets of high-density residences
served by mass transit, and those where market forces played a greater role in shaping land
use. Rapid population growth tends to be associated with below average proportions of
land space devoted to circulation.
These three variables yield a taxonomy of city types that partly explains the type of
transport systems which they have acquired (table 1). For example, relatively rich
countries are highly motorized and congested, but also more able to afford rail-based mass
transit systems. Where growth has been very rapid, the development of mass transit is less
likely to have occurred. However, former socialist cities that have suffered stagnating
Transport Reviews ISSN 0144-1647 print/ISSN 1464-5327 online © 2003 Taylor & Francis Ltd
http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals
DOI: 10.1080/0144164032000068939
198 K. Gwilliam
Low High
incomes are more likely to have a mass transit system than income alone would suggest.
Dominating all, however, are the influences of city size, which affects average trip lengths,
and density, which determines trip numbers per unit of space. Large, dense cities have the
highest levels of traffic congestion and the worst environmental impacts from road
traffic.
Figure 1. Motorization and incomes. Growth of cars versus growth of per capita incomes in
France, Japan, Spain and the UK (1950s–95) and relative position of selected other countries in
1995. Source: World Bank (2002).
Figure 2. Overview of ambient air quality in selected cities. Subjective assessment of monitoring
data (various years, 1990s). Sources: Data have been assembled by Asif Faiz and Surhid Gautam,
World Bank, from various sources including World Bank project reports, URBAIR reports, WRI
World Resources, a study of seven cities undertaken for the LAC Clean Air Initiative, Indian Central
Pollution Board reports, and unpublished data obtained by direct inquiry from various cities (São
Paulo, Santiago, Bangkok).
conditions have impacts much wider than the direct injury and trauma suffered by
victims and their families, who usually have neither insurance compensation nor a
social security safety net to protect them. The very perception of vulnerability
influences the travel patterns of a much wider spectrum of people who avoid vulnerable
modes such as cycling or vulnerable times of travel. The diminishing trip rates now
being experienced in some of the larger South American cities such as São Paulo have
been partly attributed to insecurity.
Urban transport in developing countries 201
bicycles. Public authority attitudes to bicycles have been similarly ambiguous and some
governments—most notably that of Indonesia—have taken positive actions to eliminate
non-motorized public transport.
Finally, the public transport story is rather similar. Though buses are the main
mechanized public transport mode, carrying 6.5 trillion (6.5 × 1012 ) passenger-km per
year in 3 million vehicles, of which over 2 million operate in cities, the traditional local
monopoly bus operators, whether private or publicly owned, have now mostly collapsed
(Gwilliam 2001). In Africa, they have largely been replaced by a fragmented small vehicle
paratransit sector, while in Eastern Europe and central Asia a similar process of decline is
at various stages of completion (for further details, see Gwilliam 2000). The main
difference in the public transport story is that the decline has often been precipitated by
fare control policies, which were ostensibly devised to protect the poor.
redirection of it. Improving the quality of intercity transport and communications can
contribute to that, as can the removal of subsidies to the megacity—including transport
subsidies.2
been successfully concessioned. But the scope for private financing of new roads through
tolls is limited by the need to limit access, while shadow toll systems, as developed in
some European countries, do not help because they leave costs primarily on budget. Pure
private finance of new urban rail projects has not yet been successful in any case in a
developing country.
Both for private sector road and rail investments significant operational difficulties
have also been experienced in cities such as Kuala Lumpur, Manila and Bangkok because
of the failure to integrate the private systems effectively within a comprehensive urban
transport and development strategy. Purely opportunistic finance is thus to be avoided.
Unless the private developments conform to a general structure plan they may impose
unforeseen, and sometimes very significant, contingent costs on the public budget.
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in terms of reforming the refinery processes. Particularly in countries where the carbon
component of vehicular particulate matter remains high, concentrating on sulphur
standards may not be a cost-effective way to mitigate particulate emissions from diesel
engines.
A particular problem in cleaning fuel in developing countries is that many refineries
are owned by the government, which may resist requiring changes in fuel quality that will
increase cost, or will embrace them only while maintaining import protection through
restrictions or high tariffs. In fact, the net cost to society of improving fuel quality by
importing superior fuels may be lower than the costs resulting from use of domestically
manufactured fuels with less stringent specifications. On the other hand, the imposition of
high fuel specifications may not be a cost-effective solution in countries, such as those in
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South Asia, where the vehicle fleet is dominated by old, poorly maintained vehicles or
where transport fuels are routinely adulterated.
Many countries pin their hopes of improving urban air quality on the introduction of
alternative fuels. For example, all taxis in Buenos Aires already operate on compressed
natural gas (CNG) and the Indian High Court recently instigated a process of
replacement of diesel by CNG for buses and all pre-1990 auto-rickshaws and taxis in
highly polluted New Delhi. CNG is a relatively clean fuel, available in abundance in
many developing countries such as Argentina, Bangladesh and Thailand. Moreover, city
gas distribution networks already exist in many large cities in Bangladesh, Brazil,
Colombia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. However,
conversion to CNG has its difficulties. CNG vehicles are up to 30% more expensive to
buy and pay a 30–35% energy premium over diesel vehicles. Their range is also
substantially less than that of a diesel vehicle. Moreover, though good retrofit kits (e.g.
in Argentina) work efficiently, many do not. Serious problems were encountered with
bus conversions in New Delhi. Maintenance can also be a problem: of a fleet of 40
CNG buses in Jakarta, half were out of operation in mid-2001 due to maintenance
problems.
Other alternative fuels are even less attractive. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is
easier to distribute and store than CNG4 and has been effectively used in the conversion
of the three-wheeler ‘tuk-tuks’ in Bangkok. But LPG must be stored under pressure both
inside the vehicle and in the fuel depots requiring expensive pressurized tanks and special
refuelling equipment. The required investments in LPG distribution and refuelling stations
have not been made in most developing countries. True biofuels (i.e. those without
substantial fossil fuel use hidden in harvesting and processing) would give a real reduction
in GHG emissions, but are still elusive at costs competitive with gasoline or diesel.
Hydrogen fuel-cell buses are already being used in trial projects, including a programme
funded by UNDP, but they are very expensive and unlikely to have early application in
developing countries. Even conventional electric vehicles that have obvious attractions as
urban vehicles, whether powered directly, as in the case of electric trains or trolleybuses,
or indirectly by batteries, as in the case of some buses, small vans and cars, are presently
uneconomic.
For substitutes to be attractive in the developing world, they must not only be seen to
address locally perceived environmental problems, but also to be economically viable at
the individual and national levels. Seen in that light, hybrid diesel/electric vehicles, which
are now being developed with some success and tested in industrialized countries, may
have the best prospects. While their cost is similar to that of a heavy CNG vehicle, they
can give a 30% energy saving compared with a conventional diesel vehicle. With high fuel
prices, they may thus combine environmental and economic benefit.
Urban transport in developing countries 205
reduce emissions significantly. However, designing effective I/M programmes has proved
difficult due to a combination of technical and corruption problems. For off-road testing,
experience from various parts of the world suggests that an I/M system based on
centralized, high-volume, inspection-only centres with computerized emission measure-
ment to minimize tampering and corruption, as in Mexico City, is likely to be more
effective than a decentralized system with a large number of participating private garages
(Kojima and Bacon 2002). Wider use of spot-checking equipment capable of identifying
the main problems from any relevant vehicle-type, and of fixed I/M stations for more
thorough examination and follow-up of vehicles identified, may increase the technical
effectiveness of a control programme while an appropriate system of fees and fines could
make such a system self-financing.
Vehicle scrappage and replacement incentive payments can encourage the early
retirement of high polluters and have been tried in several countries.5 They have been
most successful when directed to buses and heavy goods vehicle markets, as in Hungary,
in which it is common to replace old vehicles with new. In the private car sector where
vehicles are typically changed more frequently for a vehicle of only a slightly newer
vintage, they have been more problematical (Gwilliam 2002).
New motorcycle technology can reduce pollution. The difference in both capital and
operating cost between two- and four-stroke motorcycles is rapidly being eroded, and
Chinese and Japanese manufacturers are already concentrating their sales efforts on four-
strokes. The very large Vietnamese fleet is already predominantly four stroke. However,
new technology does not deal with the problem of the high average age and low
replacement rate of vehicles currently in use. Nor does technology deal with the safety
problem. Although compulsory use of helmets could reduce deaths and injury
substantially, it has hitherto been very difficult to enforce, even in Vietnam where the
problem is most acute. The motorcycle is likely to present the most challenging of all the
transport problems facing Asia in the next decade.
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than part of the problem by giving them priority in use of road space. Segregated busways,
common in Brazilian cities, or even more highly integrated priority bus networks, as in
Curitiba, Brazil and Bogota, have already shown themselves able to reduce bus emissions
directly and influence car ownership and use (Gwilliam and Kojima 2002).
more than would an otherwise well-designed control programme with no gasoline tax
(Eskeland and Devarajan 1996).
The best reported experience of strong and consistent use of economic measures is
from Singapore where very strong political action to limit the stock of cars to that deemed
sustainable has been implemented through the auctioning of a controlled stock of
certificates to purchase vehicles as well as by congestion pricing in the central business
district and some of its major freeway accesses (Willoughby 2000). But other cities, such
as Seoul, are now considering road pricing. The existence of a single jurisdiction, with the
ability to use the revenues from vehicle taxation to finance other supporting elements of
a comprehensive policy, seems important to that case.
Third, neither politicians nor the public have safety high on their agenda in contrast to
many industrialized countries where high-level goals are adopted and advertised at the
national level and made operational at local levels by municipal and other highway
authorities. These programmes have been supported by a high level of agreement and
coordination between different authorities under different ministries and with different
budgets. Similar comprehensive road safety programmes can be successful in developing
countries. In the early 1990s, the Asian Development Bank assisted the government of Fiji
to develop a broad-ranging national road safety action plan that reduced road deaths by
20%. A recent comprehensive attack on road safety problems in Brasilia has been
similarly successful.
evidence that the lack of adequate medical facilities contributes to the high level of
fatalities in developing country cities (TRL and Ross Silcock 2000). Many lives could be
saved if medical attention were provided within the ‘golden hour’ following an accident.
Emergency service response time can often be improved at modest cost by simple
measures such as strategic positioning of emergency service centres (perhaps first-aid
stations at fuel stations), provision of an emergency telephone number and more
widespread provision of first-aid training. To be effective this approach would need
administrative support in the form of the establishment of a control centre, implementation
of ITS applications for efficient service control, and upgrading of hospital emergency
departments. Usually inhibiting such developments is an institutional ‘black hole’ into
which responsibility for road accident medical services too often falls. To fill this gap, it
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will be necessary at the very least to set up an emergency medical services committee and
create a mechanism, possibly funded by insurance companies, to cover the expenses in
bringing injured persons to hospital.
The more general problem is that of jurisdictional cooperation, particularly as the
police often have such a bad image in developing countries that both citizens and the
international institutions may be unwilling to support them. This has been addressed at
the national level in some countries by the creation of a National Road Safety Agency
directly responsible to the Prime Minister’s office such as in Vietnam and India. Even
this has been of limited success because of the difficulty in getting the lower levels of
government to give parallel commitment. However, similar institutional arrangements at
the municipal level, with direct responsibility to the head of the city government, have
been successful in prosecuting urban road safety campaigns in Brasilia.
one-third to one-half as many motorized trips per capita as the non-poor. Moreover, in
most poor countries private motorized vehicle trips are restricted to the top quintile of the
population, with the motorcycle extending this down to the middle classes in middle-
income countries. As a consequence, richer groups spend a higher proportion of their
income on transport than most of those with lower incomes in virtually all countries.
However, this does not mean that transport is not part of the problem of poverty. The
low transport expenditure of some of the poor often reflects the fact that they are forced
to accept very precarious living conditions on barely habitable or accessible land in order
to be able to access work. For example, many favellas in Brazilian cities are relatively
close to areas of potential employment, but are unserved by formal transport providers.9
At the other extreme, many of the poor live remotely in order to inhabit affordable space,
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and thus incur both high travel costs and long travel times. Twenty per cent of workers in
Mexico City spend more than 3 hours travelling to and from work each day, and 10%
spend more than 5 hours (Schwela and Zali 1999). Such peripheral locations typically
involve exclusion from a whole range of urban facilities, a deprivation only partly
overcome by family or neighbourhood solidarity (Cusset 1998).
Good transport may also assist the poor indirectly by improving their prospects of, and
access to, employment. World Bank research indicates that the incomes of the poorest
quintile of the population vary in direct proportion to national income and there is no
evidence of a lag between increases of overall incomes and the incomes of poor people to
suggest that benefits accrue to poor people only in a prolonged process of ‘trickle down’
(Dollar and Kraay 2002). Aggregate level analysis of poverty and growth also indicates
that much previous public social sector expenditure has been poorly targeted, having little
demonstrable effect on either growth or distribution, while, in contrast, policies to
improve market functioning have yielded proportionate benefits to poor people. The most
pro-poor policies appear to be those associated with reducing government expenditures
and stabilizing inflation. Insofar as governments view urban public transport policy as an
instrument of social policy, it is thus important not only to be concerned with the
effectiveness of urban transport infrastructure and service planning and investment in
targeting the needs of poor people, but also to consider the indirect effect of urban
transport pricing and financing policies on the poor through their impact on government
expenditures and macro stabilization.
7. Policy implications
What has been described above is an excess demand for urban road space—with
adverse congestion and environmental impacts—co-existing with an underfunding of the
very modes—public and non-motorized transport, which could, if appropriately planned
and used, attenuate both congestion and environmental problems. It has recently been
called the ‘fundamental paradox of urban transport’.
That paradoxical outcome has three important roots:
transport. The first requirement is that urban transport financing should be fungible
between modes. In a well-managed unitary authority, as in Singapore, it occurs through
the normal budgetary process. In more complex multi-tiered administrative systems,
achieving this flexibility may require the pooling of urban transport financial resources
within an Urban Transport Fund. Under such an organization all local transport user
charges, including congestion charges, as well as any allocations of local taxes or
intergovernmental transfers for transport, should normally be made to the fund. The
existence of an integrated Urban Transport Fund does not depend on any specific tax
source being earmarked for transport, though in order to develop the credibility of the
fund, and particularly to gain political and popular support for the payment of congestion
charges, it is essential that the objectives and scope of an Urban Transport Fund are clearly
defined, that allocations are subject to rigorous appraisal and that operations of the fund
are transparent.
infrastructure within the integrated policy framework. Efficiency may be best achieved
through competitive tendering of concessions, which may be supported by public
contributions so long as these have been subject to proper cost–benefit analysis. But all
major private infrastructure investments should conform to the general municipal
development strategy.
Acknowledgements
This paper draws heavily on the recently published World Bank urban transport
strategy paper Cities on the Move, of which I was the primary author. I acknowledge the
contribution of my many colleagues in the transport sector in the Bank. However, the
views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of the World Bank, its Executive
Directors or the countries they represent.
Notes
1. For example, the Korean green belt policy for Seoul appears to have produced
perverse density gradients, high housing costs and travel distances, and arguably has
militated particularly against the interests of the poor.
2. For example, it has been estimated that a 1% increase in the share of Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) spent on government transport and communications investments
is associated with a 10% reduction in primacy, i.e. barriers to internal trade reinforce
primacy (Krugman 1991).
3. A study for the World Bank by Radian in Bangkok found PM10 from auto exhaust
to be higher inside houses than outside.
4. LPG requires pressures ranging from 4 to 13 bar compared with 200 bar for
CNG.
5. Empirical evidence from Spain suggests that changes in the I/M programme may
have had considerable effects on trends in first-time vehicle registration (European
Conference of Ministers of Transport 1999).
6. This observation is based on surveys carried out in a recent study by W. S. Atkins
for DFID in Sri Lanka, Ghana, Zimbabwe, Papua New Guinea and India.
Urban transport in developing countries 215
7. In 1991, the British ODA (now the DFID, Department for International
Development) funded the preparation of the manual Towards Safer Roads in Developing
Countries, which has been widely disseminated both in the English and Spanish versions.
The Asian Development Bank has funded road safety guidelines for the Asia and Pacific
region, and country-specific road safety engineering manuals have been developed in a
number of countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Kenya. IDB has
undertaken similar work in Latin America (Gold 1999).
8. Female police officers have become effective and have gained a reputation for being
tough and incorruptible in the enforcement of traffic rules in La Paz and Lima. They might
have a wider role in respect of sexual harassment.
9. Similarly, 59% of pavement dwellers in Madras walked to work in less than half an
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