Professional Documents
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Trend Analysis
Trend Analysis
Youth Phase
Random failures or rare event failures – CFR.
Old Age Phase
Wear out failures or old age failures – IFR.
Old-age Wear-out Increasing Wear, Tear, Creep, Low Operate Fail and
Phase or Age Fatigue, Weakened Corrective
failures parts Maintenance
High Replacement,
Scrapping or
Reconditioning
These failures take a few days to rectify. They also may require large work force,
knowledge and skill to rectify. These failures may cause considerable damage to
the machine, minor injuries to men and affects the regular work.
Catastrophic Failures
These are the costliest failures. The occurrence of such failures may cause the
damage to the machine, men and some times the environment also. The
rectification or recovery from the losses of this failure may take a few weeks to
months even.
10.3.2 Types of Failures Based on the Mode of Fail-
ure Sudden Failures
These types of failures occur in items after giving some period of desired service
rather than deterioration while in service. This period of giving desired service is
not constant but follows some frequency distribution, which may be progressive,
retrogressive or random in nature.
Progressive Failure
If the probability of failure in the beginning of an item is less and gradually
increases in its life, then such failure is called progressive failure. For example,
light bulbs and tubes fail progressively.
Retrogressive Failure
If probability of failure in the beginning of the life of an item is more but as time
passes the chances of its failure become less then such failure is said to be
retrogressive.
Random Failure
In this type of failure, the constant probability of failure is associated with items
that fail from random causes such as physical shocks, not related to age. For
example, vacuum tubes in air burn equipment have been found to fail at a rate of
the age of tube.
Gradual Failures
A gradual failure is progressive in nature, i.e. as the life increases, its operational
efficiency also deteriorates resulting in increased running (maintenance and
operational) costs. They also cause decrease in the resale or salvage value.
Mechanical items like pistons, rings, bearings, etc. and automobile tyres fall under
this category.
(c) Running cost or operating cost or maintenance cost of the machine is due to Trend Analysis
its minor failures or preventive maintenance or operating costs, etc. These
will increase on the machine as the age grows. This is assumed to be
increasing due to the wear and tear on the moving parts of the machine.
The above costs are shown graphically on a hypothetical machine here below. Summing,
the above three costs, we can notice that the average total cost decreases for certain
period and then increases. The age when the graph shows its minimum costs will be
optimum age of replacing the machine.
10.5.2 Necessity or Significance of Replacement
The replacement of parts or entire machine will become significant and necessary in the
following cases :
(a) When average cost of repairs or maintenance or operating goes higher than
the costs of the machine or in other words, the cost of maintenance will
increase to such an extent that the average annual repair or maintenance cost
is greater than or equal to costs of new machine.
(b) Machine runs with less efficiency and therefore not economical.
(c) When the machine completely fails to work very frequently by which the
production schedules are interrupted.
(d) If it is expected that the existing model may become obsolete or resale value
may drastically come down.
(e) Modified or new designs in the market may give an edge of advantage such
as reduced cost of production or ease and comfort of operation or more
functions are available in new design, etc.
(f) If the item is non-repairable type or use and throw type.
Activity 1
List out various equipment in your organisation and identify the stage in its life
cycle. Justify your answer as why a particular machine is so classified.
………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………
SAQ 1
(a) Explain Bath tub curve with suitable examples. Explain various maintenance
strategies that are appropriate at each stage.
(b) Explain the different costs involved in machine failure analysis.
61
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Condition Based
Maintenance 10.6 REPLACEMENT MODELS
The replacement of machine is considered as the following three types :
Model-1
Replacement policy for items when money value is assumed to remain unchanged
with time.
Model-2
Replacement policy for items when money value changes with time.
Model-3
Group replacement policy.
These are explained in detail with examples and illustrations in the sections to follow.
There fore average cost per unit time incurred over the period of n years is
1 ⎧⎪ ⎫⎪
n
ATCn = ⎨ − + ( ) ⎬
∫
C S R t dt ...
n
(10.1) To obtain optimal⎪⎩value of n0for which⎪⎭ ATCn is minimum, differentiate
ATCn with respect to n and set the first derivative equal to zero, i.e. minimum of
ATCn.
n
d 1 R ( n) 1
dn
[ ATCn ] = − [C − S ] +
n n
−
n ∫0 R (t ) dt = 0
1 ⎧⎪ n ⎫⎪
or R ( n) =
n
⎨C − S +
⎪⎩
∫ R (t ) dt ⎬ n ≠ 0
⎪⎭
0
62
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Hence the following replacement policy can be derived with the help of Eq.
(10.2).
Policy
Replace the equipment when the average annual cost for n years becomes
equal to the current/running cost. n
⎪
1 ⎧⎪ t⎫ . . . (10.3)
R (n) = ⎨C − S + R (t ) d ⎬
∫
n⎪
i.e. ⎩ ⎭⎪
0
Case II
When time t is a discrete variable :
The average cost incurred over the period n is given by
1⎧ n ⎫
ATCn = ⎨ C − S + ∑ R (t ) ⎬
n⎩ t =0 ⎭
n
If C – S and ∑ R (t ) are assumed to be monotonically decreasing and increasing
t =0
respectively, then there will exist a value of n for which ATCn is minimum. Thus
we shall have inequalities
ATCn −1 > ATCn + 1
1 ⎧ n ⎫
= ⎨C − S + ∑ R (t ) + R ( n + 1) ⎬
n +1 ⎩ t =1 ⎭
⎧ n ⎫
⎨C − S + ∑ R (t ) ⎬
=
1 ⎩ t =1 ⎭ + R (n + 1)
n +1 n n +1
1 R (n + 1)
= . ACTn +
n +1 n +1
n R (n + 1)
Therefore, ATCn +1 − ATCn = ATCn + − ATCn
n +1 n +1
R (n + 1) ⎡ n ⎤
= + ATCn ⎢ − 1⎥
n +1 ⎣n + 1 ⎦
R (n + 1) ATCn
= −
n +1 n +1
Since ATCn + 1 – ATCn > 0, we get
R (n + 1) ATCn
− >0
n +1 n +1
Step 2
Calculate net value by difference of cost and salvage value (C – S), i.e.
second column value – third column value and enter in Column 5.
Step 3
Calculate cumulative running cost, i.e. Σ Rn cumulating of Column 4 and
enter in Column 6.
Step 4
Calculate total cost TC = (C – S) + Σ Rn, i.e. sum of 5th column value and
6th column value to enter in Column 7.
Step 5
Calculate average total cost for n years, i.e. divide 7th column value by
1st column value, i.e. ATC = 1/n [(C – S) + Σ Rn] and enter in Column 8.
Step 6
Observe the values in column 8 and identify the minimum value. The year
corresponding to the minimum value is the age of the equipment to be
replaced.
64
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This is illustrated through the numerical example given below. Trend Analysis
Example 10.1
A firm is thinking of replacing a particular machine whose cost price is
Rs. 12,200. The scrap price of this machine is only Rs. 200. The maintenance costs
are found to be as follows :
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Maintenance
220 500 800 1200 1800 2500 3200 4000
Cost
Determine the when the firm should get the machine replaced.
Solution
The calculations of average running cost per year during the life of the machine are
shown in the following table :
Cost price machine (C ) = 12,200 : S = 200 : C – S = 12,000
Cumulative
Salvage Running Depreciation Total Cost Average Cost
Year Cost Running
Value Cost (Rs.) Cost (Rs.) (Rs.) (Rs.) per Year
n (C) Cost (Rs.)
(S) R (n) C–S TC ATCn
∑ R (n)
(7) = (5) +
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) = (2) – (3) (6) = ∑ (4) (8) = (7)/(1)
(6)
From the above table it may be noted that the average cost per year, ATCn is
minimum in the 6th year is (Rs. 3170). And this average cost is increasing from the
7th year onwards. Hence the machine should be replaced after 6 years.
Example 10.2
A plant manager is considering replacement policy for a new machine. He
estimates the following cost in Rs.
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6
Operating Costs 25 30 40 50 65 80
Cumulative Average
Resale Operating Total Cost
Replacement Operating Annual
Year Value Net Value Cost =C–S
Cost Cost Cost
(S) = Rn + Σ Rn
= Σ Rn ATCn
1 100 60 40 25 25 65 65
3 125 40 85 40 95 180 60
From the above table it may be noticed that the average cost per year, ATCn is
minimum in the 2nd year, i.e. ATC2 is Rs. 57.50 which is less than ATC1 (Rs. 65/-)
and ATC3 (Rs. 60/-). Hence the machine should be replaced at the end of second
year.
Example 10.3
A fleet owner finds from his past records that the cost per year of running a vehicle
whose purchase price is Rs. 50000 are as under :
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Running cost Rs. 5000 6000 7000 9000 1500 16000 18000
Resale Value Rs. 30000 15000 7500 3750 2000 2000 2000
There after running costs increase by Rs. 2000, but resale value remains constant at
Rs. 2000. At what age is a replacement due?
Solution
The required calculations are shown in the following table :
Cum ATC
C–S TC
Year C S R (n) R (n)
(4) (7) 8
(1) (2) (3) (5) (6) = Σ
= (2) – (3) = (4) + (6) = (7)/(1)
(5)
1 50,000 30,000 20,000 5,000 5,000 25,000 25000
2 50,000 15,000 35,000 6,000 11,000 46,000 23000
3 50,000 7,500 42,500 7,000 18,000 60,500 20167
4 50,000 3,750 46,250 9,000 27,000 73,250 18313
5 50,000 2,000 48,000 15,000 42,000 90,000 18000
6 50,000 2,000 48,000 16,000 58,000 106,000 17667
7 50,000 2,000 48,000 18,000 76,000 124,000 17714
8 50,000 2,000 48,000 20,000 96,000 144,000 18000
9 50,000 2,000 48,000 22,000 118,000 166,000 18444
The average annual total cost minimum (17666.67) during 6th year machine hence
it should be replaced at the end of 6th year.
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Machine A costs Rs. 45,000 and the operating costs are estimated at Rs. 1000 for
the first year, increasing by Rs. 10,000 per year in the second and subsequent
years. Machine B costs Rs. 50,000 and operating costs are Rs. 2000 for the first
year, increasing by Rs. 4000 in the second and subsequent years. If we now have a
machine of type A, should we replace it with B? If so when? Assume that both
machines have no resale value and future costs are not discounted.
Solution
The calculations of average costs running per year during the life of Machines A
and B are shown in tables given below :
Table A : Calculations of Average Annual Total Cost for Machine A
From the above table it may be noted that the average running cost per year is
lowest in the third year, i.e. Rs. 26,000. Hence, Machine A should be replaced after
every three years of service.
Table B : Calculation of Average Annual Total Cost for Machine B
From the above table it may be noted that the average running cost per year is
lowest in the fifth year, i.e. Rs. 20,000. This cost is less than the average running
cost (Rs. 26,000) per year for Machine A. Hence Machine A should be replaced by
Machine B.
Now to find the time of replacement of Machine A by Machine B, the total cost of
Machine A in the successive years is computed as follows :
Year 1 2 3 4
Total Cost 46,000 57,000 – 46,000 78,000 – 57,000 1,90,000 – 78,000
Incurred (Rs.) = 11,000 = 21,000 = 31,000
67
Condition Based Machine A should be replaced by Machine B at the time (age) when its running
Maintenance cost for the next year exceeds the lowest in average running cost (Rs. 20,000) per
year of Machine B.
Calculations show that the running cost (Rs.21,000) of Machine A in the third year
is more than lowest in average cost (Rs. 20,000) of Machine B. Hence Machine A
should be replaced by Machine B after two years.
Activity 2
Explain the type of replacement policy you are following in your organisation.
Discuss its merits and demerits that you are experiencing practically.
………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………
SAQ 2
(a) The cost of a machine is Rs. 6100 and its scrap value is only Rs. 100. The
maintenance costs are found from experience to be as given below :
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Maintenance
100 250 400 600 900 1200 1600 2,000
Cost Rs.
Let the owner has three of above type machines, two of which are two years Trend Analysis
old.
Now he is considering a new type of equipment with 50% more capacity
than one of the old ones at a unit price of Rs. 8000 with the running costs
and resale price as follows :
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Running Cost 6100
1200 1500 1800 2000 3100 4000 5000
(Rs.)
Resale Value
4000 2000 1000 500 300 300 300 300
(Rs.)
= [1 + v + v 2 + . . . + v n −1 ] x
⎡1 − vn ⎤
Pn = ⎢ ⎥x
⎣1− v ⎦
⎡1− v ⎤
x=⎢ ⎥ Pn
⎣1 − vn ⎦
Hence the best period to replace the machine is the period n which minimises
1− v
= . Pn . But (1 – v) = A positive constant quantity and so we can write
1 − vn
Pn
Fn = and find out the value of n the period at which to replace the machine
1 − vn
that minimizes Fn. Since n can assume only discrete values [1, 2, 3, . . .] we can
use the method of finite differences to calculate its optimal values.
Fn will be minimum if
Δ Fn −1 < 0 < Δ Fn
Now Δ Fn = Fn + 1 − Fn
Pn + 1 Pn (1 − V n ) Pn + 1 − (1 − V n + 1 ) Pn
= − =
1 − V n +1 1−Vn (1 − V n + 1 ) (1 − V n )
1
= n +1
[( Pn + 1 − Pn ) + (V n + 1 Pn − V n pn + 1 )]
(1 − V ) (1 − V ) n
70
Trend Analysis
We have Pn + 1 = (C + R1 + v R2 + . . . + v n −1 Rn ) + v n Rn + 1
= Pn + v n . Rn + 1 or v n Rn + 1 = Pn + 1 − Pn
1
Hence Δ Fn = n +1
[V n Rn + 1 + V n + 1 Pn − V n [ Pn + V n Rn + 1 ]]
(1 − V ) (1 − V ) n
1
= n +1
[V n Rn + 1 (1 − V n ) − V n Pn (1 − V )]
(1 − V ) (1 − V ) n
V n (1 − V ) ⎡1 − V n ⎤
= ⎢ R + 1 − P ⎥
(1 − V n + 1 ) (1 − V n ) ⎢⎣ 1 − V
n n
⎥⎦
⎡1 − V n ⎤
= A positive constant × ⎢ Rn + 1 − Pn ⎥
⎣⎢ 1 − V ⎥⎦
Hence Fn has always the same sign as
⎡1 − V n ⎤
⎢ Rn + 1 − Pn ⎥
⎢⎣ 1 − V ⎥⎦
∴ n will be optimal if
⎡ V n +1 ⎤ ⎡1 − V n ⎤
= ⎢1 − Rn − Pn + 1 ⎥ < 0 < ⎢ Rn + 1 − Pn ⎥
⎢⎣ 1 − V ⎥⎦ ⎣⎢ 1 − V ⎥⎦
From the above equation we have
1−Vn
Rn + 1 − Pn > 0
1−V
⎡ 1−V ⎤
or Rn + 1 > Pn ⎢ n⎥
⎣⎢1 − V ⎦⎥
Pn
or Rn + 1 >
⎡ (1 − V n ) ⎤
⎢ ⎥
⎣ (1 − V ) ⎦
C + R1 + V R2 + V 2 R3 + . . . + V n −1 Rn
or Rn + 1 >
1 + V + V 2 + . . . + V n −1
n
C + ∑ Rγ V γ −1
γ =1
or Rn + 1 > n
∑ V γ −1
γ =1
The right hand expression is the weighted average (denoted by wr) of all costs up
to and including period (n – 1). The weights 1, v, v2 . . . vn – 1 are the discount
factors applied to the costs for each period.
The left hand side of expression can be expressed as
n
C + ∑ Rn V γ −1
γ =1
Rn + 1 < n
∑ V γ −1
γ =1
71
Condition Based From Eqs. (g) and (h) we conclude that
Maintenance
(a) The machine should be replaced if the next period cost is greater than
the weighted average of previous costs.
(b) The machines should not be replaced if the next period’s cost is less
than the weighted average of previous costs.
Note : When money value is not considered, v = 1.
C + R1 + R2 + . . . + Rn
Rn +1 >
1 + 1 + . . . to n terms
Pn Pn
or Rn +1 > where
n n
Average yearly cost with no resale value.
This is identical to the previous case when money value was ignored. In real
practice replacement policy is greatly influenced by complicated tax laws
prevailing. Discussion in this regard is not included in the scope of this book. In
actual dealings the influence of tax has got to be taken into consideration.
Steps to Find the Policy When Money Value Changes with Time
Step 1
Note the values of capital cost of machine, salvage value, rate of
depreciation PWF, etc.
Step 2
Construct the tabular form as given below, and enter the first 2 columns as
per the given data.
PWF or Average
Year Running
Discount n–1 C + Σ Rn n–1 Annual
Cost Rn ν Σν
Factor νn – 1 Total Cost
(Rn)
νn – 1 ATCn
(5) (6) = Σ
(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2) – (3) (7) = (5)/(6)
= C + Σ (4) (3)
Step 3
1
Calculate the present worth factor for each year by the formula
1 + r ) n −1
and put in Column 3.
Step 4
Calculate Rn vn – 1, i.e. the product of 2nd and 3rd column values, and enter
them in Column 4.
Step 5
Column 5 is summation of cumulative running cost and capital cost
including (salvage if any), i.e.
C + ∑ Rn v n −1
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Step 8
The lowest value in Column (7) corresponds to the year in which the
machine is to be replaced.
Note : Readers are advised to check the problem thoroughly and note whether
depreciation is given or depreciated amount is given or discount rate is
given, etc.
Example 10.5
The initial cost of equipment is Rs. 5000. The running cost varies as follows :
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Running Cost (Rs.) 400 500 700 1000 1300 1700 2100
Allowing a discount rate of 10% (or discounted at 0.90), find optimal replacement
interval.
Solution
The required calculations are shown in the tabular form as follows :
Average
Running Discount
n–1 n–1 n–1 Annual Total
Year Cost Factor Rn ν C + Σ Rn ν Σν
Cost
(Rn) νn –1
ATCn
(1) (2) (3) (4) = ( 2) – (3) (5) = C + Σ (4) (6) = Σ (3) (7) = (5)/(6)
From the above table we observe that 1953 > 1921 < 1936, i.e.
ATC5 > ATC6 < ATC7. Therefore, the optimum replacement interval is 6 years.
Example 10.6
A manufacturer is offered two Machines A and B. A is priced at Rs. 5000 and
running costs are estimated at Rs. 800 for each of the first five years, increasing by
Rs. 200 per year in the sixth and subsequent years. Machine B, which has the same
capacity as A, costs Rs. 2500 but will have running costs of Rs. 1200 per year for
six years, increasing by Rs. 2000 per year thereafter. If the money is worth 10%
per year, which machine should be purchased assuming that both machines will
eventually be sold for a scrap at a negligible value?
73
Condition Based Table for A : R = 10%, CA = 5000
Maintenance
n n ATC
Year Ri ν n–1
Ri ν n–1 C + Σ Ri ν n – 1 Σ νn – 1
i=1 i=1
(1) (2) (3) (4) = (2) × (1) (5) = C + ∑ (4) (6) = Σ (3) (7) = (5)/(6)
(a) A machine has been purchased at a cost of Rs. 1,60,000. The value of the
machine is depreciated in the first three years by Rs. 20,000 each year and
Rs. 16,000 per year thereafter. Its maintenance and operating costs for the
first three years are Rs. 16,000, Rs. 18,000 and Rs. 20,000 in that order and
increase by Rs. 4000 every year. Assuming an interest rate of 10%, find the
economic life of the machine.
(b) Let the value of the money be assumed to be 10% per year and suppose that
Machine ‘A’ is replaced after every three years whereas Machine B is
replaced after every six years. The yearly costs of both the machines are
given as :
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6
Machine A (Rs.) 1000 200 400 1000 200 400
Machine B (Rs.) 1700 100 200 300 400 500
Week 1 2 3 4 5
Percent Failing by
10 25 50 80 100
the End of Week
76
At what intervals all the bulbs should be replaced? At what group replacement Trend Analysis
price per bulb would a policy of strictly individual replacement become preferable
to the adopted policy.
Solution
Step 1
To find out the probability of failure of items at the end of each week.
The probability of failure of light bulbs in first week
10
= P1 = = 0.10
100
The probability of failure of light bulbs in second week
(25 − 10)
= P2 = = 0.15
100
The probability of failure of light bulbs in third week
(50 − 25)
= P3 = = 0.25
100
The probability of failure of light bulbs in fourth week
(80 − 50)
= P4 = = 0.30
100
The probability of failure of light bulbs in fifth week
(100 − 80)
= P5 = = 0.20
100
Sum of all probabilities is 1, i.e.
P1 + P2 + P3 + P4 + P5 = 1
Therefore, All further probabilities P6, P7, P8 and so on will be zero.
Step 2
Calculation of number of replacements made considering previous
replacements.
Let Ni be the number of replacements made at the end of ith week, if all
1000 bulbs are new initially.
Thus N 0 = N 0 = 1000
N1 = N 0 P1 = 1000 × 0.1 = 100
N 2 = N 0 P2 + N1 P1 = 1000 × 0.15 + 100 × 0.10 = 160
N 3 = N 0 P3 + N1 P2 + N 2 P1 =1000 × 0.25 + 100 × 0.15 + 160 × 0.10 = 281
N 4 = N 0 P4 + N1 P3 + N 2 P2 + N 3 P1 = 377
N 5 = N 0 P5 + N1 P4 + N 2 P3 + N 3 P2 + N 4 P1 = 350
N 6 = 0 + N1 P5 + N 2 P4 + N 3 P3 + N 4 P2 + N 5 P1 = 230
N 7 = 0 + 0 + N 2 P5 + N 3 P4 + N 4 P3 + N 5 P2 + N 6 P1 = 286
From above results it is clear that number of bulbs burnt out increases upto
fourth week and decrease upto sixth week and again start increasing. The
whole system comes to a steady state where the proportion of bulbs failing
in each week is the reciprocal of their average life.
77
Condition Based As the mean age of bulbs.
Maintenance
= 1 × P1 + 2 × P2 + 3 × P3 + 4 × P4 + 5 × P5
= 1 × 0.1 + 2 × 0.15 + 3 × 0.25 + 4 × 0.30 + 5 × 0.20 = 3.55 Week
Therefore, number of failures in each week in steady state become
1000
= = 229
3.35
So, cost of replacing bulbs individually only on failure
= 10 × 299 = Rs. 2990
Step 3
Calculating the cost of individual replacement at the end of each period cost
of individual replacement at
End of first week = 100 × 10 = 1000
End of second week = 160 × 10 = 1600
End of third week = 281 × 10 = 2810
End of fourth week = 377 × 10 = 3770
Step 4
Calculating the cost of group replacement at the end of each period.
End of first week = 1000 × 4 = 4000
End of second week = 4000 + 1000 = 5000
End of third week = 5000 + 1600 = 6600
End of fourth week = 6600 + 2810 = 4410
Step 5
Calculating the cost of group replacement including individual replacement,
i.e. adding values of Steps 3 and 4.
End of first week = 4000 + 1000 = 5000
End of second week = 5000 + 1600 = 6600
End of third week = 6600 + 2810 = 9410
End of fourth week = 9410 + 3770 = 13180
Step 6
Calculating average cost per week
5000
End of first week = = 5000
1
6000
End of second week = = 3000
2
9410
End of third week = = 3136.67
3
13180
End of fourth week = = 3295
4
Step 7
To identify the least among average cost per period.
It is identified as third week, i.e. 3136.67, so it would be optimal to replace
all the bulbs after every 3 weeks, otherwise the average cost will be
78 increasing.
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A factory has a large number of bulbs all of which must be in working condition.
The mortality of bulbs is given in the following table :
Proportion of Bulbs Failing
Week
During the Week
1 0.10
2 0.15
3 0.25
4 0.35
5 0.12
6 0.03
If a bulb fails in service, it costs Rs. 3.50 to replace but if all bulbs are replaced at a
time, it costs Rs. 1.20 each. Find the optimum group replacement policy. (Assume
1000 bulbs as available in the beginning).
Solution
N0 = 1000
N1 = N0 P1
= 1000 × 0.1 = 100 bulbs
N2 = N1 P1 + N0 P2
= 100 × 0.10 + 1000 × 0.15 =160 bulbs
N3 = N2 P1 + N1 P2 + N0 P3
= 160 × 0.10 + 100 × 0.15 + 1000 × 0.25 = 281 bulbs
N4 = N3 P1 + N2 P2 + N1 P3 + N0 P4
= 281 × 0.1 + 160 × 0.15 + 100 × 0.25 + 1000 × 0.35 = 427 bulbs
N5 = N4 P1 + N3 P2 + N2 P3 + N1 P4 + N0 P5
= 427 × 0.1 + 281 × 0.15 + 160 × 0.25 + 100 × 0.35 +1000 × 0.12 = 279 bulbs
N6 = N5 P1 + N4 P2 + N3 P3 + N2 P4 + N1 P5 + N0 P6
= 279 × 0.01 + 427 × 0.15 + 281 × 0.25 + 160 × 0.35 + 100 × 0.12
+ 1000 × 0.03 = 260 bulbs
Total Cost of
End Cumulativ Cost of Average
No. of Group Total
of the e No. of Replacemen Cost per
Bulbs Replacement Cost
Week Failure t (Rs. 3.50) Week
Failed (Rs. 1.20)
1 100 100 350 1200 1550 1550
2 160 260 910 1200 2110 1055
3 281 540 1893.5 1200 3093.5 1031.1
4 427 968 3388.5 1200 4588 1147
5 279 1247 4364.5 1200 564.5 1113
6 260 1507 5274.5 1200 6474.5 1079.08
Group replacement of IC’s costs Rs. 0.30 per transistor, where as individual
replacement costs Rs. 1.25. What is the best interval between group
replacements?
At what group replacement price per transistor would a policy of strictly
individual replacement become preferable to the adopted policy?
(c) A large hospital complex has several operation theaters. Each operation
table has special light bulb attachments. The bulb is prone to failure. There
are 200 bulbs installed in all. Considering 500 hours as period, the failure of
similar bulb has been as under :
Out of 100 bulbs; 9 failed by the end of first period; 20 failed by the end of
second period; 33 failed by the end of third period; 61 failed by the end of
fourth period; 77 failed by the end of fifth period; 90 failed by the end of
sixth period; 100 failed by the end of seventh period.
The management considers to make it a practice to replace all in a group at
one time, then replace the individual bulb as and when it fails and after fixed
interval of time again replace entire group of 200 bulbs. If the bulbs are
replaced in group it costs Rs. 5 per bulb and when replaced individually it
costs Rs. 20 per bulb. What should be the replacement policy of the
hospital?
(d) Find the cost per period of individual replacement policy of an installation
of 300 bulbs given in the following :
(i) Cost of replacing individual bulb is Rs. 3/-
(ii) Conditional probability of failure is given below
Week No. 0 1 2 3 4
Conditional
0 1/10 1/3 2/3 1
Probability of Failing
10.11 TREND
The main objective of trend analysis is directed to know whether the equipment is
deteriorating or improving. This can be known by analyzing the past failure data in terms
of TBF (in case of repairable equipment) or TTF (in case of non-repairable equipment).
From the analysis, one of the following three conclusions may be drawn.
10.11.3 No Trend
This is one of critical situations, maintenance engineers face. If failure times are neither
increasing nor decreasing, it may lead to conclusion that the equipment is experiencing
constant Failure Rate (CFR). But this is true in some cases only, which means that the no
trend situation need not be Youth of machine (Random failures) with Constant Failure
Rate. However the no trend situation implies that the failure behaviour is independent of
time. It may be in random failure stage or typical increasing failure rate due to
independent and identical distribution (i.i.d.) of failure times. Therefore, this rate is to be
further analyzed to know this fact.
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Condition Based
Maintenance 10.12 METHODS OF TREND ANALYSIS
Trend analysis is carried out in basic ways viz. graphical and analytical. These methods
are described below.
10.12.1 Graphical Methods for Trend Testing
The following two methods are most popularly employed graphical methods for
monitoring monotonic trend.
(a) Cumulative Plot Test, and
(b) Eye Ball Analysis.
Cumulative Plot Test
This is most powerful test and gives easy understanding because of its pictorial
nature. To perform this test, first of all, the Time Between Failures (TBFs) of the
equipment is collected in chronological order. The Cumulative Time Between
Failures (CTBF) are then calculated and plotted against the cumulative number of
failures. By the presence of trend in TBFs, we mean that whether the equipment or
the item is deteriorating or improving with age.
By simply plotting cumulative TBFs against the cumulative number of failure we
can test whether the machine or item under consideration is improving or
deteriorating. If we get a curve concave upward (note the opposite characteristic in
TTT plot), this means that the TBFs are becoming shorter and shorter, that is to
say, the machine is deteriorating. On the other hand if we obtain a curve concave
downwards, this means that the machine is improving.
The data which exhibits linearity can be considered to have no trend. Such trend
plot is known to exhibit independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data in
statistics and has to be further analyzed by statistical distributions.
Eye Ball Analysis
This is a simple analysis of testing presence of trend. In this we pass our eye
through chronological TBFs and search for increase or decrease of the failure rate
i.e. if the TBFs are showing increasing failure magnitude towards the end, it shows
decreasing failure rate. If the magnitude of TBFs decreases towards end, then it
indicates increasing failure rate. If the magnitude of TBFs is approximately
constant through out the period then it shows constant rate of failure.
A slight modification can be done to this test. First tabulate the cumulative
frequency and divide the total period into equal number of parts usually from
5-10. (The class interval can be judged by using Sturge’s formula) then find the
number of failures in each period of operations. If there is increasing number of
failures for each period, then it indicates increasing failure rate and so on. Further,
this can be easily judged by fitting a linear trend line.
10.12.2 Analytical Trend Tests
(a) Laplace Test, and
(b) MIL HDBK 189 test.
Laplace Test
This test is highly useful for distinguishing between an HPP and a monotonic
trend. Its high degree of accuracy keeps in top position of all trend tests. However,
it is tedious and cumbersome to calculate, particularly when the data is large.
Further, it requires the calculation from the beginning at every time while the
graphical tests can provide instant answers at any point of the data.
We will discuss the specific situation where one system is run until a pre-specified
number of failures, m has occurred. Under HPP assumption the first m – 1 arrival
times, T1, T2, . . . , Tm – 1 are the order statistics from a uniform distribution
on (0, tm).
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⎡⎛ 1 ⎞ k ⎤ ⎛ T * ⎞
⎢⎜ k ⎟ . ∑ Ti ⎥ − ⎜⎜ 2 ⎟⎟
⎣⎝ ⎠ i = 1 ⎦ ⎝ ⎠
UL = . . . (10.1)
⎛ 1 ⎞
T* ⎜ ⎟
⎝ 12 k ⎠
approximates a standardized normal Variate, the approximation being adequate at
the 5%, level of significance for m = 4.
[In Eq. (7.1), k = m – 1 and T* = tm if observation stops at the last failure, k = m and
T* = the time at which observation stops, otherwise. At a significance level α there
is evidence of trend if : UL > Zα/2 (reliability deterioration) UL < − Zα/2 (reliability
improvement)].
Compare the calculated ‘U’ value with normal Variate at 10% level of signifi-
cance. If calculated value is within – 1.645 to + 1.645, accept the hypothesis, i.e.
no trend, else trend exists. [At 5% level of significance the critical values are –
1.96 to + 1.96 and 1% LOS the critical values of Normal Variate are − 2.58 to +
2.58].
MIL-HDBK-189 Test
The test is based on test statistic
n −1 ⎛T ⎞
U = 2 ∑ ln ⎜ n ⎟ . . . (10.2)
i =1 ⎝ Ti ⎠
Under the null hypothesis of an HPP, ν is distributed as χ2, with 2(m-1) degrees of
freedom.
If calculated “χ2” value is less than Chi-squared table value at 2 (m – 1) degrees of
freedom 5% L.O.S, Trend is present, else no Trend.
For degrees of freedom (ν) greater than 30, the quantity ( 2χ 2 − 2v − 1) may be
used as a normal Variate with unit variance.
Z = ( 2χ 2 − 2v − 1) . . . (10.3)
If calculated ‘Z’ value is in the following range of table (critical) values then trend
is present, else no trend.
Critical Values Normal Distribution Tables
− 1.645 to + 1.645 (at 10% level of significance)
− 1.96 to + 1.96 (at 5% level of significance)
− 2.58 to + 2.58 (at 1% level of significance).
0 0
20 640
84
Trend Analysis
Trend Analysis - Cumulative Plot Test
550
350
250
150
50
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
-2
No. of Failures
120
100
80
Failure hours
60
40
20
0
5 10 15 20 25
-20
Number of Failures
90
80
70
60
(i-1)th failure
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
i th Failure
The data for Serial Correlation Test is given in the following table.
85
Condition Based Karl Pearson’s Coefficient of Correlation and Serial Correlation
Maintenance
Sl. tbf (i) x = i – 32 (i – 1) y = (i – 1) – 27.1 x2 y2 x×y
No.
0 0
1 14 − 18 0 -27.1 324 734.41 487.8
2 12 − 20 14 − 13.1 400 171.61 262
3 9 − 23 12 − 15.1 529 228.01 347.3
4 13 − 19 9 − 18.1 361 327.61 343.9
5 7 − 25 13 − 14.1 625 198.81 352.5
6 24 −8 7 − 20.1 64 404.01 160.8
7 11 − 21 24 − 3.1 441 9.61 65.1
8 21 − 11 11 − 16.1 121 259.21 177.1
9 6 − 26 21 − 6.1 676 37.21 158.6
10 15 − 17 6 − 21.1 289 445.21 358.7
11 19 − 13 15 − 12.1 169 146.41 157.3
12 31 −1 19 − 8.1 1 65.61 8.1
13 36 4 31 3.9 16 15.21 15.6
14 27 −5 36 8.9 25 79.21 − 44.5
15 57 25 27 − 0.1 625 0.01 − 2.5
16 42 10 57 29.9 100 894.01 299
17 69 37 42 14.9 1369 222.01 551.3
18 48 16 69 41.9 256 1755.61 670.4
19 81 49 48 20.9 2401 436.81 1024.1
20 98 66 81 53.9 4356 2905.21 3557.4
32 27.1 13148 9335.8 8950
2 2
Coefficient of Correlation = Σ × y/√ ((Σ x ) × (Σ y ))
r = 0.8078252
SAQ 5
(a) What is meant by trend? Explain different methods of trend analysis.
(b) What do you understand by ‘No Trend’? Explain with an example.
(c) What is serial correlation? Discuss its application in analysis of machine
down time.
(d) Explain the significance and application of coefficient of correlation in
machine down time analysis.
(e) The time between failures for a machine are noticed as follows :
12, 10, 7, 11, 5, 22, 9, 19, 4, 13, 17, 29, 34, 25, 55, 40, 67, 46, 79, 96
Conduct the Trend analysis by using, Cumulative Plot test and confirm by
Eye ball analysis. Also check the serial correlation and verify by Karl
Pearson’s Coefficient of Correlation.
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Trend Analysis
10.14 SUMMARY
Maintenance department is often concerned with the replacement decision for which the
plant engineer is required to be aware of and keep on tracking machine health. The trend
analysis and cost analysis of failures can help the engineer in taking right decisions easily
and timely. The cost analysis for replacement depends on the money value which is
dynamic in nature. In addition to the individual replacement decisions, the plant engineer
has to examine the group replacement decisions for optimal maintenance. Further, the
trend analysis can help the engineer in taking the decisions of maintenance scheduling
and planning for the preventive actions. These are discussed in the units to follow.
This unit focuses in two directions. Firstly, it is aimed at assessing replacement age based
on the costs. Secondly, it is directed to analyzing the length and frequency of failures.
Behaviour of machines, Machine Life Cycle (MLC) and Bath tub curve are used to
explain different types of failure patterns. Various types of failures based on the volume,
the mode of failure are discussed. The significance of replacement and relevant costs
involved in Machine Failure Analysis are explained. Replacement models for individual
replacement i.e. replacement policy when money value does not change with time
(Model-1) and: replacement policy for items when money value changes with time
(Model-2) are discussed with numerical examples. Group replacement policy is also
narrated. The trends and patterns of failures with time of repairable systems are described
using graphical methods such as Cumulative plot test, Eye ball analysis and analytical
trend tests such as Laplace test, Mil-hdbk-189 test are elucidated. Test for presence of
correlation using serial correlation coefficient of correlation test can also help in tracking
the trend. These are also given an appropriate place.
(e) Thus, total cost during second year is 2 × 2175 + 2150 = 6500 and during 3rd
year is 2 × 3475 + 2175 = 7129 where as the minimum average cost for two
larger machines is 2 × 3540 = 7080. Hence all the three small machines
should be replaced after two years before any of them reaches the normal
replacement age of 5 years.
(f) ATC3 (84.43) > ATC4 (79.97) < ATC5 (83.98), therefore the machine is to be
replaced at the end of 4th year.
88
SAQ 3 Trend Analysis
89
Condition Based
Maintenance FURTHER READING
Saliho. Duffuaa, A. Raouf and John Dixon Campbell (1999), Planning and Control of
Maintenance Systems, John Wiley and Sons, USA.
Anthony Kelly, Strategic Maintenance Planning, Elsevier, New York.
B. S. Dhillon (2002), Engineering and Technology Management Tools and Applications,
Artech House, Boston.
Terry Wireman (2008), Preventive Maintenance, Industrial Press, Inc. New York.
90
MET – 003
CONDITION MONITORING AND MAINTENANCE
MPDD-IGNOU/P.O.5H/___________2020 (Print)
ISBN- 978-93-5568-674-9