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سكان العالم 2
سكان العالم 2
ســكان
انفجار ًا سكانياً؟ وإذا كان االحتمال األخير هو الصحيح ،فأي عواقب سيكون لألمر
العي�ش مدة �أطول ننجب �أو على التوازن العالمي؟
ال ننجب الهجرات :العولمة الأخرى كاترين روليه أستاذة فخرية ال استرجاعي ًا يقدم هذا الكتاب تحلي ً
سكان العالم
في Laboratoire Printemps فصول:
التابع للمركز الوطني للبحوث
-سبعة مليارات نسمة بنهاية عام 2011
العلمية ( ،)CNRSحيث تقود
أبحاث ًا في مجالي علم السكان
-ثورة أم تحول ديمغرافي؟
وتاريخ الشعوب .ولكونها عضو ًا -العيش مدة أطول
في مجلس االتحاد الدولي -ن ُنجب أو ال ن ُنجب؟
للدراسات العلمية حول السكان، -الهجرات :العولمة األخرى
فقد ترأست اللجنتين الدولية -المتوقع وغير المتوقع
والوطنية لالتحاد خالل مؤتمره باإلضافة إلى خرائط ورسوم توضيحية
الخامس عشر الذي عُقد في
وتحليالت.
مدينة تور عام .2005
كتاب
الثقافة العلمية للجميع
(ثقافتك)
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أو أﻣ ّﻴﺘﻬﻢ ،ﺳﺒﺒ ًﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻌﻘﻴﺪ ﻣﻬﻤﺔ ﻣﻮﻇﻔﻲ
اLﺣﺼﺎء .وﻗﺪ أﺟﺮي ﻓﻲ ﻣﻄﻠﻊ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻘﺮن
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واﻟﻬﻨﺪ ،ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ اﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎت رﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ :أن ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ
اﻟﺴﻜﺎن ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺘﺴﺎ ٍو ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺮة ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻮﻛﺒﻨﺎ؛ وأن
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دون ﺳﻦ اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺴﺔ واﻟﻌﺸﺮﻳﻦ ﻟﻢ ﻳﻜﻮﻧﻮا
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ﺳﺎن ﺑﻄﺮﺳﱪغ
ﺑريم إﻳﻜﺎﺗﺮﻳﻨﱪغ
ﻣﻮﺳﻜﻮ أوﻣﺴﻚ
ﺑﺮﻟني ﺗﺸﻠﻴﺎﺑﻨﺴﻚ
ﻛﻴﻴﻒ ﻓﻮﻟﻐﻮﻏﺮاد ﻫﺎرﺑني ﺳﺎﺑﻮرو
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اﺳﻄﻨﺒﻮل ﺳﻴﻮل
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أﺛﻴﻨﺎ ﻣﺸﻬﺪ ﺷﻴﺂن ﻳﻮﻛﻮﻫﺎﻣﺎ
ﻃﻬﺮان ﻧﺎﻧﻜني أوﺳﺎﻛﺎ
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اﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮة ﻛﺎﻧﺘﻮن
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ﺛﻢ اﻧﺨﻔﺎض ﰲ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﻻدات ﻣﻨﺬ أﻛرث ﻣﻦ ﻋﴩﻳﻦ، ﻃﻔﺮة ﰲ وﻻدات ﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺤﺮب،ﻋﺎﳌﻴﺘﺎن ﺑﻌﻮاﻗﺐ ﻣﺘﻌﺪدة
.ً ﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﻄﻴﻪ ﻫﺬا اﳌﻈﻬﺮ اﻟﺨﺎص ﺟﺪا،ًﻋﺎﻣﺎ
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ﻫﺮم اﻟﺴﻜﺎن اﻟﺮوﳼ )ﰲ 1ﻛﺎﻧﻮن اﻟﺜﺎين /ﻳﻨﺎﻳﺮ .(1999ﻳﻌﻜﺲ اﻟﻬﺮم اﻟﺴﻜﺎين اﻟﺮوﳼ ﺗﺎرﻳﺨﺎً ﻣﺘﺰاﺣامً
ودراﻣﺎﺗﻴﻜﻴﺎً ،ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺗﻜﺜﻴﻒ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ اﳌﺂﳼ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺷﻬﺪﻫﺎ اﻟﺮوس :اﻟﺤﺮﺑﺎن اﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺘﺎن )ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ﰲ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ أن
اﻟﺼﺪﻋني اﻟﻠﺬﻳﻦ ﺗﺴﺒﺒﺖ ﺑﻬام اﻟﺤﺮب اﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ أﻋﻤﻖ ﺑﻜﺜري ﻣام ﻫام ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﰲ أﳌﺎﻧﻴﺎ( ،ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﱃ ﻋﻮاﻗﺐ
اﻟﺘﺪاﺑري اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ واﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ واﻻﺟﺘامﻋﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ اﺗﺨﺬﺗﻬﺎ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺎت ،واﻟﻜﻔﺎح ﺿﺪ اﻟﻔﻼﺣني اﻷﻏﻨﻴﺎء ﰲ أواﺧﺮ
ﻋﴩﻳﻨﻴﺎت اﻟﻘﺮن اﳌﺎﴈ ،ﺛﻢ ﺣﻤﻼت اﻟﺘﻄﻬري ﰲ اﻟﺤﻘﺒﺔ اﻟﺴﺘﺎﻟﻴﻨﻴﺔ ،ﻧﺎﻫﻴﻚ ﻋﻦ اﳌﺠﺎﻋﺔ ﰲ ﻋﺎم .1933ﻏري أن ﺗﺪاﺑري
ﺗﺸﺠﻴﻊ اﻟﺨﺼﻮﺑﺔ ﻗﺪ أدت إﱃ وﻻدة أﺟﻴﺎل ﻋﺪﻳﺪة ﰲ أواﺧﺮ اﻟﺜﻼﺛﻴﻨﻴﺎت ﻋﲆ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ اﳌﺜﺎل ،وﺧﻼل اﻟﺜامﻧﻴﻨﻴﺎت أﻳﻀﺎً.
ﻟﻜﻦ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺗﻔﻜﻚ اﻻﺗﺤﺎد اﻟﺴﻮﻓﻴﺎيت ﺗﻨﺨﻔﺾ اﻟﺨﺼﻮﺑﺔ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻛﺒرية .وﻣﻦ اﳌﻘﺮر إﺟﺮاء اﻹﺣﺼﺎء اﻟﻘﺎدم ﻟﻠﺴﻜﺎن ﰲ
ﺗﴩﻳﻦ اﻷول /أﻛﺘﻮﺑﺮ ﻋﺎم .2010
ﺳﺒﻌﺔ ﻣﻠﻴﺎرات ﻧﺴﻤﺔ ﺑﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻋﺎم 25 2011
إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﺰﻳﺎدة ﻓﻲ ﻋﺪد ﺳﻜﺎن
اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﻗﺪ اﺗﺒﻌﺖ ﻣﻨﺬ ﻗﺮن ﻣﻀﻰ
وﺗﻴﺮة ﻟﻢ ﻳﺴﺒﻖ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻣﺜﻴﻞ ،ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻻ
ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ أن ﻧُﺴﻘﻂ داﺋﻤ ًﺎ ﻣﻌﻄﻴﺎت اﻟﻔﺘﺮة
اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ .ﻣﻨﺬ اﻟﻌﺼﻮر
اﻟﻘﺪﻳﻤﺔ ،ﻳﺘﺴﺎءل اﻟﻌﻠﻤﺎء واﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﻮن
ﺣﻮل ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ اﻟﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺤﺠﻢ ا4ﻣﺜﻞ
ﻟﻠﺴﻜﺎن ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ دوﻟﺔ ،إﻻ أن ﻣﺎ ﻳﻬﻢ
اﻟﻴﻮم ﻫﻮ ا4ﺧﺬ ﻓﻲ اﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺘﻮﺟﻪ اﻟﻌﺎم
ﻟﺸﻴﺨﻮﺧﺔ اﻟﺴﻜﺎن ،واﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل
ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺑـ»اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺪﻳﻤﻐﺮاﻓﻴﺔ« ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ
ﻳﻜﻮن ذﻟﻚ ﻣﻤﻜﻨ ًﺎ ،أي ﺧﻼل ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة
اﻟﺘﻲ ﻻ ﻳﻘﺘﺮن اﻧﺨﻔﺎض اﻟﺨﺼﻮﺑﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ
ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﺰﻳﺎدة ﻓﻲ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺴﻨﻴﻦ.
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ﻋﴩ ،ﻏري أﻧﻪ مل ﻳﺒﺪأ ﰲ اﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ إﻻ ﺑﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ اﻟﻘﺮن اﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ ﻋﴩ؛ ﻟﺬا ﻓﺈن اﻟﻔﺎرق اﻟﺰﻣﻨﻲ واﺿﺢ
ﺟﺪ ا ً .مثﺔ ﺳﻤﺔ أﺧﺮى وﻫﻲ أن اﻟﺘﺤﻮل اﳌﻜﺴﻴيك »أﻋﲆ« ﺑﻜﺜري ﻣﻦ ﻧﻈريه اﻟﺴﻮﻳﺪي ،ﻣﺆدﻳﺎً ﻣﻨﺬ
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ﻋﴩ( .واﻟﺠﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﺎﳌﻼﺣﻈﺔ أن ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﻮﻓﻴﺎت ﰲ اﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ ﻫﻮ اﻵن أﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﻮﻳﺪ ،وﻳﺮﺟﻊ ذﻟﻚ
إﱃ ﺻﻐﺮ ﺳﻦ ﺳﻜﺎن اﳌﻜﺴﻴﻚ.
ﻛام ﻫﻮ اﻟﺤﺎل ﰲ، ﻟﻘﺪ أدى اﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ اﻟﺤﴬي اﳌﺘﺴﺎرع ﻟﻬﺬه اﳌﺪﻳﻨﺔ اﻟﻌﻤﻼﻗﺔ.ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻴﺎت ﰲ ﻣﻜﺴﻴﻜﻮ
. ﺣﻴﺚ اﻟﻮﺿﻊ اﻟﺼﺤﻲ ﻳﺒﻌﺚ ﻋﲆ اﻷﳻ، إﱃ ﻇﻬﻮر اﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻴﺔ،ﻣﺪن أﺧﺮى ﰲ أﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ اﻟﻼﺗﻴﻨﻴﺔ
35 ﺗﺤﻮل دﻳﻤﻐﺮاﻓﻲ؟
ّ ﺛﻮرة أم
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( ﻳﺤﻠﻢ.م. ق348/347 -
ﺑﺎﳌﺪﻳﻨﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﻤﺢ
ﻗﻮاﻧﻴﻨﻬﺎ اﳌﻘﻴﺪة ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﰲ
.ًاﻟﺴﻜﺎن ﻛامً وﻧﻮﻋﺎ
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- ﺟﻨــﻮب اﻟﺼﺤــﺮاء اﻟﻜــﱪى f©M|D&* :f¡H + mz¤7 zEK j©6f¡kG* 9*|H&¶*K
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.اﻻﺗﺠﺎه اﻟﻌﺎم ﰲ اﻟﻌﺎمل ميﻴﻞ إﱃ اﻻﻧﺨﻔﺎض
j©)fE§G*rH*|gG*©g-HG3KN*|1'§Hj<|+
71 ﻧﻨﺠﺐ أو ﻻ ﻧﻨﺠﺐ؟
ﻋﺪد اBﻃﻔﺎل ﻟﻜﻞ اﻣﺮأة ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎم 2009
أوروﺑﺎ اﻟﺸامﻟﻴﺔ
)(1.9
أوروﺑﺎ اﻟﴩﻗﻴﺔ
)(1.5
أوروﺑﺎ اﻟﻐﺮﺑﻴﺔ
)(1.6
ﻣﻌﺪﻻت اﻟﺨﺼﻮﺑﺔ ﰲ أﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ) .(2009ﻧﺠﺪ ﰲ أﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ أﻋﲆ ﻣﻌﺪﻻت ﻟﻠﺨﺼﻮﺑﺔ ﰲ اﻟﻌﺎمل ) 7.4ﻃﻔﻞ ﻟﻜﻞ
اﻣﺮأة ﰲ اﻟﻨﻴﺠﺮ 6 ،ﰲ ﻣﺎﱄ 6.7 ،ﰲ اﻟﺼﻮﻣﺎل( .وﻫﻨﺎك ﻋﺪة ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ميﻜﻨﻬﺎ أن ﺗﻔﴪ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻮﺿﻊ :أوﻻً ،ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ
ﻣﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻣﺜﻠام ﺗﻜﺸﻒ ﻋﻦ ذﻟﻚ ﺧﺮﻳﻄﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﺼﻐرية ﰲ أﺳﻔﻞ اﻟﻴﺴﺎر .ﺗﻌﺰى ﻫﺬه اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﳌﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺟﺰﺋﻴﺎً إﱃ
ﺗﺠﺎرة اﻟﺮﻗﻴﻖ ،وﺗﻔﴪ ﳌﺎذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺎت اﻷﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺣﺘﻰ وﻗﺖ ﻗﺮﻳﺐ ﻣﱰددة ﺟﺪا ً ﺑﺸﺄن ﻓﻜﺮة ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ اﻟﻨﺴﻞ.
ﺛﻢ إن اﺳﺘﻤﺮار ارﺗﻔﺎع ﻣﻌﺪل وﻓﻴﺎت اﻟﺮﺿﻊ ﻻ ﻳﺸﺠﻊ اﻷزواج ﻋﲆ اﻟﺤﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺠﻢ أﴎﻫﻢ؛ ﻓﻔﻲ أﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ
ﻋﺎم ،ﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﺮب ﻣﻦ ﻃﻔﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻋﴩة أﻃﻔﺎل ﻣﻌﺮض ﻟﻠﻮﻓﺎة ﻗﺒﻞ ﻋﺎﻣﻪ اﻷول ) 74ﰲ اﻷﻟﻒ ﻋﺎم .(2009أﺧريا ً ،ﻓﺈن
اﻟﻌﻘﻠﻴﺎت اﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺸﺠﻊ ﻣﻄﻠﻘﺎً اﻟﺮﺟﺎل واﻟﻨﺴﺎء ﻋﲆ اﻟﺤﺪ ﻣﻦ ذرﻳﺘﻬﻢ.
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77 ﻧﻨﺠﺐ أو ﻻ ﻧﻨﺠﺐ؟
اﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ،ﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ وﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﻣﻨﻊ اﻟﺤﻤﻞ
Nf©©0N*zMz¤-jHÏG*j©0fI¢Hj©9|H|©=K|;ªD 64fM«{G* Q 9f¤/(¶*M
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ًﻣﻌﺎرﺿﺔ ﻣامرﺳﺔ ﺗﺤﺪﻳﺪ اﻟﻨﺴﻞ ﰲ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ أﺣﻴﺎﻧﺎً أﺷﻜﺎﻻ
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2000 - 1995 ﺟﻬﺎض ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﺄﻣﻮن ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﺤﺔ اﻟﻤﺮأة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ#ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮات ا
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79 ﻧﻨﺠﺐ أو ﻻ ﻧﻨﺠﺐ؟
إن ﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﺮب ﻣﻦ 210ﻣﻼﻳﻴﻦ
ﻧﺴﻤﺔ ﻫﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ
اﻟﺪوﻟﻴﻴﻦ .ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺤﺮﻛﺔ
اﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮة ﻟﻠﺴﻜﺎن ﻣﺴﺎرات ﻣﻌﻘﺪة ،ﻣﺮوراً
ﺑﺪول اﻟﻤﺮور اﻟﻌﺎﺑﺮ ،ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﺴﻨﻐﺎل وﺗﺮﻛﻴﺎ
وإﻧﺪوﻧﻴﺴﻴﺎ واﻟﻤﻜﺴﻴﻚ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﺮﻳﻖ
إﻟﻰ أوروﺑﺎ وأﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ اﻟﺸﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ أو ﺟﻨﻮب
ﺷﺮق آﺳﻴﺎ .وﺗﻄﺮح اﻟﺪول اﻟﻐﻨﻴﺔ ذات
اﻟﺴﻜﺎن اﻟﻤﺴﻨﻴﻦ اﻟﺴﺆال ﻋﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎن
وﺻﻮل اﻟﻤﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﻳﻤﻜﻦ أن ﻳﻌﻮض ﻓﻲ
اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺗﺮاﺟﻊ ﻋﺪد ﺳﻜﺎﻧﻬﺎ .وﺗﻀﺎف
إﻟﻰ ﻫﺬه اﻟﻬﺠﺮات اﻟﺪوﻟﻴﺔ ،اﻟﻬﺠﺮة
اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﻴﺔ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﺪن ﻟﻠﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻜﺎن
اﻟﺮﻳﻒ ،ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ اﻟﺤﺎل ﻓﻲ اﻟﺼﻴﻦ.
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اﻟﻬﺠﺮة إﱃ اﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎت اﳌﺘﺤﺪة وﻛﻨﺪا ) .(2000 - 1860مل ﺗﺸﻬﺪ اﻟﻬﺠﺮة إﱃ اﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎت اﳌﺘﺤﺪة ﺗﻄﻮرا ً ﻣﻄﺮدا ً ،ﺑﻞ
ﺳﺠﻠﺖ ﻣﺪا ً وﺟﺰرا ً؛ ﻓﺒﻌﺪ ﻓﱰات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺪﻓﻖ اﻟﻌﺎﱄ ،ﺣﻠﺖ ﻓﱰات ﻣﻦ اﻟﱰاﺟﻊ اﳌﺘﺼﻞ ﺑﻈﺮوف اﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ أو ﺗﺪاﺑري
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ﻋﺎدت ﺑﻘﻮة أﻛﱪ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻋﺎم ،1900ﻟﺘﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻣﻊ ﻓﱰة اﻟﻜﺴﺎد اﻟﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﰲ ،1930 - 1929ﺛﻢ ﺗﻨﺘﻌﺶ ﺑﺒﻂء ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺤﺮب
اﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﺼﻞ إﱃ أوﺟﻬﺎ ﰲ أواﺧﺮ مثﺎﻧﻴﻨﻴﺎت اﻟﻘﺮن اﻟﻌﴩﻳﻦ .ﰲ ﻋﺎم 1986ﺗﻢ اﻟﺴامح ﻟﻘﺮاﺑﺔ اﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ
ﻣﻼﻳني ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮ ﻏري ﴍﻋﻲ ﺑﺎﻹﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﰲ اﻟﺒﻼد ﻋﻘﺐ ﻗﺎﻧﻮن إﺻﻼح ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﻬﺠﺮة وﻣﺮاﻗﺒﺘﻬﺎ .ﻛام ﺷﻬﺪت
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108
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ســكان
انفجار ًا سكانياً؟ وإذا كان االحتمال األخير هو الصحيح ،فأي عواقب سيكون لألمر
العي�ش مدة �أطول ننجب �أو على التوازن العالمي؟
ال ننجب الهجرات :العولمة الأخرى كاترين روليه أستاذة فخرية ال استرجاعي ًا يقدم هذا الكتاب تحلي ً
سكان العالم
في Laboratoire Printemps فصول:
التابع للمركز الوطني للبحوث
-سبعة مليارات نسمة بنهاية عام 2011
العلمية ( ،)CNRSحيث تقود
أبحاث ًا في مجالي علم السكان
-ثورة أم تحول ديمغرافي؟
وتاريخ الشعوب .ولكونها عضو ًا -العيش مدة أطول
في مجلس االتحاد الدولي -ن ُنجب أو ال ن ُنجب؟
للدراسات العلمية حول السكان، -الهجرات :العولمة األخرى
فقد ترأست اللجنتين الدولية -المتوقع وغير المتوقع
والوطنية لالتحاد خالل مؤتمره باإلضافة إلى خرائط ورسوم توضيحية
الخامس عشر الذي عُقد في
وتحليالت.
مدينة تور عام .2005
كتاب
الثقافة العلمية للجميع
(ثقافتك)
147