Lampiran 2.

Hasil Pendugaan Model Produksi dan Perdagangan Beras

Indonesia dan Dunia
The SAS System
1
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
QGD
Dependent Variable
QGD
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
7 2.256E14 3.223E13
Error
3 1.482E11
4.94E10
Corrected Total
10 2.258E14

F Value
652.45

Pr > F
<.0001

Root MSE
222261.597 R-Square
0.99934
Dependent Mean 49233420.1 Adj R-Sq
0.99781
Coeff Var
0.45144
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Variable
Intercept
HGP
HUREA
HZA
HTSP
LAP
PROV
LQGD

t Value

Pr > |t|

1
-4.267E7
4855960
-8.79
0.0031
1
83381.44 85065.41
0.98
0.3993
1
12521.70 459395.9
0.03
0.9800
1
-379564 454583.1
-0.83
0.4650
1
143846.7 118047.8
1.22
0.3101
1
4.354855 0.306630
14.20
0.0008
1
9580083 908599.4
10.54
0.0018
1
0.021682 0.047179
0.46
0.6771

Durbin-Watson
2.622233
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.34533

The SAS System

2
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
PROV
Dependent Variable
PROV
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
4 0.228578 0.057145
Error
6 0.248222 0.041370
Corrected Total
10 0.476800

F Value
1.38

Pr > F
0.3440

Root MSE
0.20340 R-Square
0.47940
Dependent Mean
4.50000 Adj R-Sq
0.13234
Coeff Var
4.51993
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Variable
Intercept
UREA
ZA
TSP
LPROV

1
1

t Value

2.983086 1.375837
-0.05241 1.728931
1
1.690218 8.468560
1
2.078820 3.402901
1
0.283941 0.300765

Pr > |t|

2.17
0.0732
-0.03
0.9768
0.20
0.8484
0.61
0.5637
0.94
0.3816

Durbin-Watson
1.611175
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.081545

The SAS System

3
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
QUREA
Dependent Variable
QUREA
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
3 6.193E12 2.064E12
Error
7
4.96E11 7.086E10
Corrected Total
10 6.689E12

F Value
29.14

Pr > F
0.0003

Root MSE
266187.750 R-Square
0.92585
Dependent Mean 5441768.27 Adj R-Sq
0.89407
Coeff Var
4.89157
Parameter Estimates
Variable

Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Intercept
REA
EXUREA
LQUREA

1
513414.2 594367.9
1
0.235496 0.370560
1
-0.00060 0.202976
1
0.775371 0.273134

t Value

Pr > |t|

0.86
0.4163
0.64
0.5453
-0.00
0.9977
2.84
0.0251

Durbin-Watson
2.678063
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation
-0.3464

The SAS System

4
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
REA
Dependent Variable
REA
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
4 3.832E12 9.581E11
Error
6 4.088E10 6.8129E9
Corrected Total
10 3.873E12

F Value
140.63

Pr > F
<.0001

Root MSE
82540.2437 R-Square
0.98945
Dependent Mean 3674018.82 Adj R-Sq
0.98241
Coeff Var
2.24659
Parameter Estimates
Variable

Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Intercept
UREA
HETA
HUREA
LREA

1
971760.7 349111.2
1
254598.5 678942.4
1
9127.531 5675.030
1
64095.17 7376.086
1
0.593413 0.049579

t Value

Pr > |t|

2.78
0.37
1.61
8.69
11.97

Durbin-Watson
2.875317
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.44275

0.0318
0.7206
0.1589
0.0001
<.0001

The SAS System

5
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
HGP
Dependent Variable
HGP
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
4 485.9999 121.5000
Error
6 5.582905 0.930484
Corrected Total
10 491.5828

F Value

Pr > F

130.58

<.0001

Root MSE
0.96462 R-Square
0.98864
Dependent Mean
10.65794 Adj R-Sq
0.98107
Coeff Var
9.05068
Parameter Estimates
Variable

Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Intercept
HDG
HPIC
HEC
LHGP

1
-0.84622 0.654925
1
1.268507 0.425114
1
-0.19383 0.389351
1
0.089940 0.354499
1
-0.00107 0.001077

t Value
-1.29
2.98
-0.50
0.25
-0.99

Durbin-Watson
1.743123
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.054598

Pr > |t|
0.2439
0.0245
0.6363
0.8082
0.3597

The SAS System

6
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
HPIC
Dependent Variable
HPIC
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
4 1174.930 293.7326
Error
6 7.124285 1.187381
Corrected Total
10 1182.055

F Value

Pr > F

247.38

<.0001

Root MSE
1.08967 R-Square
0.99397
Dependent Mean
17.41710 Adj R-Sq
0.98995
Coeff Var
6.25632
Parameter Estimates
Variable

Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Intercept
HPP
HEC
HBDT
LHPIC

1
0.481884 0.869091
1
0.007347 0.212638
1
0.659013 0.521904
1
0.000470 0.000873
1
-0.00026 0.000749

t Value
0.55
0.03
1.26
0.54
-0.34

Durbin-Watson
2.777711
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.39061

Pr > |t|
0.5993
0.9736
0.2535
0.6101
0.7430

The SAS System

7
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
HEC
Dependent Variable
HEC
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
4 1675.166 418.7914
Error
6 3.258742 0.543124
Corrected Total
10 1678.424

F Value

Pr > F

771.08

<.0001

Root MSE
0.73697 R-Square
0.99806
Dependent Mean
19.91576 Adj R-Sq
0.99676
Coeff Var
3.70043
Parameter Estimates
Variable

Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Intercept
HPP
HPIC
HBDT
LHEC

1
-0.95270 0.461782
1
0.284174 0.083272
1
0.336388 0.244690
1
0.001136 0.000396
1
0.000520 0.000380

t Value
-2.06
3.41
1.37
2.87
1.37

Durbin-Watson
2.506196
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.30587

Pr > |t|
0.0847
0.0143
0.2183
0.0285
0.2204

The SAS System

8
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
HBDT
Dependent Variable
HBDT
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
3 2.7782E8 92606501
Error
7 12517070
1788153
Corrected Total
10 2.9034E8

F Value
51.79

Pr > F
<.0001

Root MSE
1337.21835 R-Square
0.95689
Dependent Mean 8667.17943 Adj R-Sq
0.93841
Coeff Var
15.42853
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Variable
Intercept
PWEXTHA
KURS
LHBDT

1
1
1

t Value

Pr > |t|

-3123.08 1795.871
-1.74
0.1256
34.78782 11.64554
2.99
0.0203
1.700216 0.199913
8.50
<.0001
-0.00272 0.001427
-1.91
0.0979

Durbin-Watson
1.730263
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.05836

The SAS System

9
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
CON
Dependent Variable
CON
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
5
5.86E14 1.172E14
Error
5
1.26E11
2.52E10
Corrected Total
10 5.861E14

F Value
4649.80

Pr > F
<.0001

Root MSE
158759.214 R-Square
0.99978
Dependent Mean 26190933.9 Adj R-Sq
0.99957
Coeff Var
0.60616
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Variable
Intercept
HEC
CONKAP
POP
INF
LCON

t Value

Pr > |t|

1
-2.483E7
1636287
-15.18
<.0001
1
265.8317 12390.39
0.02
0.9837
1
216473.7 3739.708
57.89
<.0001
1
0.112025 0.010553
10.62
0.0001
1
8585.721 20529.19
0.42
0.6931
1
0.016989 0.017013
1.00
0.3638

Durbin-Watson
1.287229
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.187768

The SAS System

10
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
PEXTHA
Dependent Variable
PEXTHA
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
4 0.730001 0.182500
Error
6 0.370739 0.061790
Corrected Total
10 1.100740

F Value
2.95

Pr > F
0.1142

Root MSE
0.24858 R-Square
0.66319
Dependent Mean
2.29615 Adj R-Sq
0.43865
Coeff Var
10.82574
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Variable
Intercept
EXTHA
PTHA
PWEXTHA
LPEXTHA

t Value

1
1
1

Pr > |t|

0.797763 1.008644
0.79
0.4591
4.75E-10 5.753E-8
0.01
0.9937
-0.10552 0.299920
-0.35
0.7370
1
0.004790 0.002072
2.31
0.0601
1
0.436921 0.258555
1.69
0.1420

Durbin-Watson
2.573136
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.40112

The SAS System

11
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
PEXIND
Dependent Variable
PEXIND
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
4 70.16819 17.54205
Error
6 6.618755 1.103126
Corrected Total
10 76.78694

F Value
15.90

Pr > F
0.0024

Root MSE
1.05030 R-Square
0.91380
Dependent Mean
5.63078 Adj R-Sq
0.85634
Coeff Var
18.65279
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Variable
Intercept
EXIND
PIND
PWEXIND
LPEXIND

t Value

1
1
1

Pr > |t|

-3.35347 1.918583
-1.75
0.1311
5.729E-7 3.626E-7
1.58
0.1652
0.746700 0.827501
0.90
0.4016
1
0.002332 0.003968
0.59
0.5782
1
0.997528 0.273211
3.65
0.0107

Durbin-Watson
2.417145
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.29322

The SAS System

12
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
PEXVIE
Dependent Variable
PEXVIE
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
4 1.956182 0.489045
Error
6 1.667889 0.277981
Corrected Total
10 3.624071

F Value
1.76

Pr > F
0.2553

Root MSE
0.52724 R-Square
0.53977
Dependent Mean
1.69419 Adj R-Sq
0.23296
Coeff Var
31.12041
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Variable
Intercept
EXVIE
PVIE
PWEXVIE
LPEXVIE

t Value

Pr > |t|

1
-0.75219 1.311504
-0.57
0.5871
1
1.63E-7 1.866E-7
0.87
0.4158
1
-0.09401 0.349645
-0.27
0.7970
1
0.002318 0.004928
0.47
0.6547
1
0.888333 0.607184
1.46
0.1938

Durbin-Watson
1.890226
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation
0.02915

The SAS System

13
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
PEXPAK
Dependent Variable
PEXPAK
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

F Value

Model
4 1.118412 0.279603
Error
6 0.605053 0.100842
Corrected Total
10 1.723465

2.77

Pr > F
0.1275

Root MSE
0.31756 R-Square
0.64893
Dependent Mean
2.38510 Adj R-Sq
0.41489
Coeff Var
13.31416
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Variable
Intercept
EXPAK
PPAK
PWEXPAK
LPEXPAK

t Value

1
1
1

Pr > |t|

0.114699 0.826433
0.14
0.8942
1.697E-7 1.402E-7
1.21
0.2716
0.251153 0.271620
0.92
0.3908
1
0.003186 0.002853
1.12
0.3069
1
0.506837 0.322932
1.57
0.1676

Durbin-Watson
2.559596
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation
-0.4087

The SAS System

14
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
PEXAS
Dependent Variable
PEXAS
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
4 1.440928 0.360232
Error
6 0.491560 0.081927
Corrected Total
10 1.932488

F Value
4.40

Pr > F
0.0533

Root MSE
0.28623 R-Square
0.74563
Dependent Mean
3.26466 Adj R-Sq
0.57606
Coeff Var
8.76747
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Variable
Intercept
EXAS
PAS
PWEXAS
LPEXAS

t Value

Pr > |t|

1
-0.96209 1.255890
-0.77
0.4727
1
-3.04E-7 2.104E-7
-1.45
0.1981
1
1.207530 0.371025
3.25
0.0174
1
-0.00060 0.002917
-0.21
0.8435
1
0.752257 0.361822
2.08
0.0828

Durbin-Watson
1.597602
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation
0.16882

The SAS System

15
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
PEXCHI
Dependent Variable
PEXCHI
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
4 5.414737 1.353684
Error
6 0.917628 0.152938
Corrected Total
10 6.332365

F Value
8.85

Pr > F
0.0108

Root MSE
0.39107 R-Square
0.85509
Dependent Mean
2.41225 Adj R-Sq
0.75848
Coeff Var
16.21195
Parameter Estimates
Variable

Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Intercept
EXCHI
PCHI
PWEXCHI
LPEXCHI

1
-0.23209 0.495719
-0.47
0.6562
1
-1.3E-7 2.232E-7
-0.58
0.5809
1
0.320664 0.191937
1.67
0.1458
1
0.002032 0.003333
0.61
0.5645
1
0.741730 0.317023
2.34
0.0579

t Value

Durbin-Watson
1.368563
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation
0.30734

Pr > |t|

The SAS System

16
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
PIMCHI
Dependent Variable
PIMCHI
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
4 32.89160 8.222901
Error
6 1.342634 0.223772
Corrected Total
10 34.23424

F Value
36.75

Pr > F
0.0002

Root MSE
0.47305 R-Square
0.96078
Dependent Mean
4.29650 Adj R-Sq
0.93463
Coeff Var
11.01004
Parameter Estimates
Variable

Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Intercept
IMCHI
PCHI
PWIMCHI
LPIMCHI

1
0.192348 1.116761
0.17
0.8689
1
-2.45E-6 2.032E-6
-1.21
0.2729
1
1.780843 0.553731
3.22
0.0182
1
0.009196 0.002926
3.14
0.0200
1
-0.11181 0.215878
-0.52
0.6230

t Value

Durbin-Watson
1.164382
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation 0.121766

Pr > |t|

The SAS System

17
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
PIMINA
Dependent Variable
PIMINA
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
4 0.460837 0.115209
Error
6 0.202507 0.033751
Corrected Total
10 0.663344

F Value
3.41

Pr > F
0.0877

Root MSE
0.18371 R-Square
0.69472
Dependent Mean
2.33192 Adj R-Sq
0.49120
Coeff Var
7.87828
Parameter Estimates
Variable

Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Intercept
IMINA
PINA
PWIMINA
LPIMINA

1
0.223643 0.746125
0.30
0.7745
1
3.296E-8 7.713E-8
0.43
0.6840
1
-0.04269 0.092134
-0.46
0.6595
1
0.001707 0.001491
1.14
0.2959
1
0.844933 0.252124
3.35
0.0154

t Value

Durbin-Watson
1.780946
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.02111

Pr > |t|

The SAS System

18
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
PIMPHI
Dependent Variable
PIMPHI
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
4 2.586542 0.646635
Error
6 0.001770 0.000295
Corrected Total
10 2.588311

F Value
2192.59

Pr > F
<.0001

Root MSE
0.01717 R-Square
0.99932
Dependent Mean
2.36926 Adj R-Sq
0.99886
Coeff Var
0.72483
Parameter Estimates
Variable

Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Intercept
IMPHI
PPHI
PWIMPHI
LPIMPHI

1
0.012011 0.039141
0.31
0.7693
1
-1.22E-8 9.273E-9
-1.32
0.2351
1
0.998012 0.015233
65.52
<.0001
1
0.008039 0.000095
84.61
<.0001
1
0.006199 0.012377
0.50
0.6343

t Value

Durbin-Watson
2.201161
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.19477

Pr > |t|

The SAS System

19
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
PIMRAN
Dependent Variable
PIMRAN
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
4 0.450969 0.112742
Error
6 0.547997 0.091333
Corrected Total
10 0.998966

F Value
1.23

Pr > F
0.3886

Root MSE
0.30221 R-Square
0.45144
Dependent Mean
2.45718 Adj R-Sq
0.08573
Coeff Var
12.29917
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Variable
Intercept
IMRAN
PRAN
PWIMRAN
LPIMRAN

t Value

1
1
1

Pr > |t|

3.357350 0.483762
6.94
0.0004
5.444E-8 1.017E-7
0.54
0.6117
-0.00660 0.011532
-0.57
0.5878
1
-0.00006 0.000091
-0.70
0.5128
1
-0.36689 0.179197
-2.05
0.0866

Durbin-Watson
1.847712
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.03275

The SAS System

20
06:36 Friday, October 7, 2011
The SYSLIN Procedure
Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model
PIMMAL
Dependent Variable
PIMMAL
Analysis of Variance
Sum of
Mean
DF
Squares
Square

Source

Model
4 0.940035 0.235009
Error
6 0.324532 0.054089
Corrected Total
10 1.264567

F Value
4.34

Pr > F
0.0546

Root MSE
0.23257 R-Square
0.74337
Dependent Mean
2.72320 Adj R-Sq
0.57228
Coeff Var
8.54030
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard
DF
Estimate
Error

Variable
Intercept
IMMAL
PMAL
PWIMMAL
LPIMMAL

t Value

1
1
1

Pr > |t|

0.211948 1.168000
0.18
0.8620
-5.7E-8 1.194E-6
-0.05
0.9635
0.870282 0.757099
1.15
0.2941
1
0.002726 0.003524
0.77
0.4686
1
0.310153 0.218741
1.42
0.2060

Durbin-Watson
2.167087
Number of Observations
11
First-Order Autocorrelation -0.21969