Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Exercise Balikatan 2024 In
Planning Stages Looks North
January 30, 2024

The media is reporting that Philippine military officials are visiting islands off the
northern coast opposite Taiwan as possible sites for this year’s Exercise Balikatan. Last
year Exercise Balikatan conducted some activities at Basco in Batanes province. In
preparation of a report on Exercise Balikatan 2024 we request your insights into the
following questions:
Q1. Why are U.S. and Philippine forces focused there?
ANSWER: The waterway separating the
northern Philippines from Taiwan, the Luzon
Strait and Bashi Channel, will play a strategic
role in any Taiwan conflict between China and
the United States. The People’s Liberation Army
Navy regularly deploys an aircraft carrier and
escorts to the eastern coast off Taiwan through
the Bashi Channel and flies military aircraft over
this area.
The Philippines and the United States seek to
deter China by demonstrating that
interoperable combined military forces are
intimately familiar with the operational
environment and can be deployed at short
notice to this area.
Q2. What would they use these islands for in a Taiwan contingency?
ANSWER: The Armed Forces of the Philippines and the United States are concerned to
deter China from deploying military forces in this area and occupying Filipino islands
during a Taiwan contingency. At the same time, the offshore islands could provide
protection to U.S. forces moving through this area.
The Philippines has already deployed small contingents on Mavulis and Batanes
islands to monitor Chinese and other traffic through the Bashi Channel. HIMARS, anti-
ship and surface to air missiles (ASM and SAM) could be based on these islands to
threaten the Chinese military during a Taiwan conflict.
Q3. What kind of training do you expect to see there during Balikatan?
 2

ANSWER: This year is likely to see a repeat of last year’s Balikatan Exercise that
included air assault on three offshore islands, including Batan, and coastal defence
serials.
Q4.Do you think U.S. Marines might establish a presence there of some sort?
ANSWER: Under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement, U.S. Marines are
permitted a temporary rotational presence at nine Filipino bases. They are also
permitted to participate in training with the Armed Forces of the Philippines. In other
words, U.S. Marines can deploy to northern islands as part of Exercise Balikatan or as
part of another approved training exercise in the area. Their presence would be
temporary.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Exercise Balikatan 2024 In Planning Stages

Looks North,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 30, 2024. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply
key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.