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∗ Schoolof Mathematical Sciences, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, China, β Department of Mathematics and
Sciences, Prince Sultan University, Riyadh 11586, Saudi Arabia, α Department of Mathematics, University of Malakand, Chakdara Dir (Lower), Khyber
Pakhtunkhawa, Pakistan, § Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Lebanese American University, Beirut, Lebanon; Siirt University, Art and
Science Faculty, Department of Mathematics, 56100 Siirt, Türkiye; Near East University, Mathematics Research Center, Department of Mathematics, Near
East Boulevard, PC: 99138, Nicosia / Mersin-10, Türkiye.
ABSTRACT Short memory and long memory terms are excellently explained using the concept of piecewise KEYWORDS
fractional order derivatives. In this research work, we investigate dynamical systems addressing COVID-19 Nonlinear dynami-
under piecewise equations with fractional order derivative (FOD). Here, we study the sensitivity of the proposed cal system
model by using some tools from the nonlinear analysis. Additionally, we develop a numerical scheme to Crossover behavior
simulate the model against various fractional orders by using Matlab 2016. All the results are presented Mathematical biol-
graphically. ogy
Sensitivity analysis
INTRODUCTION lus. Here we remark that fractional derivative has not a unique
Fractional calculus has been recognized as a powerful tool to inves- definition. There have been introduced various definitions by re-
tigate various dynamical problems with more detail and a realistic searchers including singular and non-singular operators (Rahman
approach. The foundation of this branch was laid by Newton and et al. 2021). Recently in this connection, see more work as (Ahmad
some known mathematicians of that time. Later on Reimann, Li- et al. 2021c; Alqahtani et al. 2021; Ojo and Goufo 2022, 2023). Both
ouville, Hadamard, Hilfer and other researchers developed this forms have been used extensively in various research problems.
branch further by introducing various differential and integral Both operators have merits and sometimes some de-merits which
operators (Machado et al. 2011). The great advantage of using frac- have been discussed by researchers. For instance, authors have in-
tional calculus instead of classical in the description of real-world vestigated fractal fractional chaotic attractor behavior in (Saifullah
problems is its global nature. By fractional derivatives, we can et al. 2021), a physical model in (Ahmad et al. 2021b), and using the
describe global dynamics for various evolutionary processes in a Caputo-Fabrizio derivative in (Ahmad et al. 2021c).
more realistic way. Also, the mentioned operators are keeping a On the other hand, for epidemiological purposes, the said con-
greater degree of freedom as compared to ordinary operators of cept has been used very well. Large numbers of models have been
derivatives which are local in nature, (see some detail in (Hilfer investigated under the concept of fractional order derivatives and
et al. 2008) and (Agarwal et al. 2010)). integrals. As we know that infectious diseases have greatly af-
Keeping the mentioned characteristics in mind researchers have fected our society from ancient times. Due to this disease, millions
increasingly used the concept of fractional calculus in the math- of people have lost their lives in the past as well as in the recent
ematical modeling of various phenomena and processes. In this two-three years. Currently, the outbreak of COVID-19 has greatly
regard, we can find literature full of such types of articles, books, destroyed the world and more than fifty million people have died
and monographs addressing the applications of fractional calcu- within two years all over the globe. The said infection has also
affected the economic situation of various countries around the
globe. Further, to control the disease researchers, physicians and
Manuscript received: 26 November 2022,
authorities are working day and night to overcome or control this
Revised: 18 February 2023,
Accepted: 22 February 2023. disease from further spreading.
1
sinanmathematics@gmail.com
2
kamalshah408@gmail.com
3
tabdeljawad@psu.edu.sa
4
aliakgul00727@gmail.com (Corresponding Author)
where δ sR 0
(δ)
0.9434 +ve
ω sR 0
-0.0001 -ve
ϕ1 = η τ 2 + τ 2 ξ + τ 2 κ + τ 3 − θ η κ + η τ ξ + η τ κ + η ξ κ + τ ξ κ, (ω )
ϕ2 = η τ + η κ + τ κ + τ 2 . τ sR 0
(τ )
0.0010 +ve
κ sR 0
(κ )
-0.0004 -ve
sR
" #
0
η θ δ β τ ξ κ (τ + κ ) ξ 1.5554 +ve
sηR0 = , (ξ )
R0 ( θ + δ + τ ) ( θ + τ + ∆ + ω ) Φ1 2
∆ sR 0
(∆)
-0.0909 -ve
" #
κ θ δ β τ ξ κ (τ + κ )
sκR0 = ,
R0 ( θ + δ + τ ) ( θ + τ + ∆ + ω ) Φ1 2 10-4
2 10
1
"
θ δ β η ξ κ (η + τ ) (τ + κ )
sθR0 =
R0 ( θ + δ + τ ) ( θ + τ + ∆ + ω ) Φ1 2
Sensitivity Analysis
0 5
Φ2
−
( θ + δ + τ )2 ( θ + τ + ∆ + ω ) Φ1
# -1
Φ2
− ,
( θ + δ + τ ) ( θ + τ + ∆ + ω )2 Φ1 -2
0
where
-3
-5
Φ1 = η τ 2 + τ 2 ξ + τ 2 κ + τ 3 − θ η κ + η τ ξ + η τ κ + η ξ κ + τ ξ κ, -4
Φ2 = δ β ξ ( η + τ ) ( τ + κ ).
In Table (1), the sensitivity indices are provided for each param-
eter associated with basic reproduction number (R0 ) computed
" #
δ β ξ (θ + τ ) (η + τ ) (τ + κ )
sδR0 = , based on the expression (17). There is a positive and negative effect
R0 ( θ + δ + τ )2 ( θ + τ + ∆ + z ) Φ1 of each parameter in the basic reproduction number (R0 ) and thus
the parameters with positive signs increase the basic reproduction
" # number (R0 ) and negative decreases, respectively. Considering the
R0 ∆ δ β ξ (η + τ ) (τ + κ ) Table (1) and Figure (1), we observed that with the increase in the
s∆ =− , value parameters β, ξ, δ, and τ cause growth in basic reproduction
R0 ( θ + δ + τ ) ( θ + τ + ∆ + ω )2 Φ1
number (R0 ) while decay by parameters θ, ∆, η, κ, and ω. Thus,
having negative indices must be minimized in the environment.
" #
R0 ω δ β ξ (η + τ ) (τ + κ )
sω =− .
R0 ( θ + δ + τ ) ( θ + τ + ∆ + ω )2 Φ1
Vaccinated Human
80
60
70
40 60
50
20
40
= 0.96 = 0.97 = 0.98 = 0.99
0 30
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
t t
Figure 2 Plot of susceptible class at various fractional order deriva- Figure 5 Plot of recovered class at various fractional order deriva-
tives. tives.
70 110
= 0.96 = 0.97 = 0.98 = 0.99
60
100
Recovered Human
50
Exposed Human
90
40
80
30
70
20
10 60
Figure 3 Plot of exposed class at various fractional order deriva- Figure 6 Plot of vaccinated class at various fractional order deriva-
tives. tives.
20
= 0.96 = 0.97 = 0.98 = 0.99 given model and as a result, we have some potential parameters on
which the basic reproduction number (R0 ) depends. Due to both
increase and decrease, there is an associated increase and decrease
15
in (R0 ). We present the sensitivity indices graphically using a bar
Infected Human