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[Exe RRR BIB /V-4 19864 1B] Jee A HOUSING FPN IC HES < ABT SBE TY DEMAND MODEL BASED ON DISAGGREGATE BEHAVIORAL ANALYSIS FOR A METROPOLITAN AREA ORAL RET Tk SE By Kazuaki MIYAMOTO, Jun ANDO and Eihan SHIMIZU [A model to forecast total demand for housing by its type it built for a metropolitan area, The model is built based on disaggregate behavioral analyses using nested logit ‘modes, ‘The nested logit models describe locational behaviors of households, that is, choice between remaining atthe present house and moving to anew house, and choice of housing type. They have enoogh variables to explain these locational behaviors, and the parameters are estimated with good fitness, ‘This study also discusses the way to esti= tate the numbers of different types of households, whichis indispensable in forecasting total demand of housing in the area. It is proved thatthe forecasting model based on the above mentioned approach can estimate housing demand forthe period from 1975 to 1980 in Tokyo metropolitan ares with good fitness, 1 EB ‘SETTER Ab ASSAD A RELIC bid 6 HORE REL TiS, HELLO T AATROBETHS. COPMC, EET WH SVGASEM EIU E LENS PMSF MAY SHSM, CNEOEEAL(, bAratBisy 5 Shc NCEA SNS RM AMMA ICAL, CORE RYSKHORMEFVTHS. EOKY, COBOE FUT, MRR OBA WC < BENDS S BS, PEREOFNGEB LOTR EDOK. HC, ENMU EET A TIC ED ORAM ES CEDS, ELECT THCRD ODEN S. TO CART, ed, AREAL 70 (ELORAIVIC A, CALUTAS® OEE EMME TM) BE, AIPM E MIC BEETS 4 FBV ERI OTT MB AME LTO % AOR, REMBAL, 6S TMMMIAIC HH EAR Th UR LES (Fis seRocAMR 7-3) “ESR Tk Hee TRROMR (7100 HREOC ERT 1-31) ERA LW HELP ALERT (rns RUCK T-S-1) ABT SLOT HOREERRTS. SLT, EOHE FI, AUR MLSS ORES ORE, TTR PEORAKLSEAW, ELC, BAAD EEA ARE EAMRAMMC AMT SC EMTES, COS SOARALTM, BLO, HEI FORME, AMT ELOTHS. ELT, El BE OAEMET 4 TOME BIE 6 CE 1H ADRS, CORD, FERBOMMHICDOTI, (A DUAL ATR ADC 8 OIERAHTME FS EAR MML COSL BASHA. DLOBAD HAI, AUC, EF, aTHTeA DEI A THOME, IRIN CRT BEDOLF WORMBRETN, KUT, EO] HERIEC IST < tha BE LORS 4 TRO HMMA LOCHS. AMIS, IRIRRTTRD EFVENOTORAREROPMT CDS, DOS HCC DB TARO HE 9 4 7S ONEE HI KO TEBRL TOS. SUT, MRE, DEORE (RSW CML LE TIS b AM LORCERORR, TEWIAT 2 DIC LORERL, ASIC MDT—A 2B L, BRTRABAL TOS. 18, KURO SHTICIS, RAAT 93 EEE CREA FLOW AIG (HER, THR, SEK, ANIL, SARTRE) OF — 0 FEMOTOS. BOM SRERRORE EF NOWRA T, AMOR ER BOIS ESS FETE M HD 9 MUCHO Ke, COMA HLAR 0.29 9% DMEM AMI kB Ab y TUBE CHS. RA GHEMMEL COSEEI AT SUC, BA SAPMORROR, 8 ORIEL OU Tit, TOMMBELT, EAA, HE, MABOH, SOCAN A HC OUT RDIORE 4 FBC BLIESOCHS. COR, WMI Am SHAN SS SEE CIAL UMEEIC ARE L LEIA HIE 35 % iad, HOARE 350 (51/0.0079) SRUSLEEED, ORI 280 TH EHTS}. CET A FBSA eR FRR 80 TIP, Re IRTOLAR 17 FAP, WHO HERS. C056, He RAH BRON TOS FHOSCEDS, HOBOKEN OFM BT, RAED T MORRIE DDS, 8B, CHING b, MSERORER SHC, HE CHMOLGE TL, ET UMROMME LHe, 3 EFIUBROE AH EEOC RES OHKAMOR, SOULE ONO BEEF > KBE LCi, BEL CA BAIBUL T, 38, FILM, ILE, Ben-Akiva’, REF A TRICE TC, Lerman, 2A", alia LCM OBEN S. 2056, LOMA, D CORO RBI LOCH, Ete, AMER BLOMBC Ho CHP CREME ENTS. La L, BARELY 6 iON TAPE SC Wek, Ei, MAO y ERMA TOSS EPSTRMMORUEOLS AMSAT. £L C, RCA SOMOS < 53, IEBRTINT A HPN. FMGRAT ONTOS, SNE COME OBEMEMNT SHRGTPERVALH. £, Anas! DSRAEO Ty RET IVES & STIS, ARTA ORE AM LEAN ARTS 405, BANE EDABTOEED, F47AF— FORM, FED 5, HET A TORII kA ABER 8 ie 2 1 HEMI SU OR ER BOR (EI A RK: be. CA SOI ERR L, ARI PACH CE AMELT, AURORE PMT EMRL TO BB, CORAM CHA HBAFOLBO CHS. (1) RELFMETLONANROBAA ERE FMS SE TOMI LSA BASHAM, 131k, Lowy £70 Putman © DRAM" DLA, TATORED AERIS A by 2-PMME CALUTAS OE UMETUOLIE, B MH OAOR Rb S7O-FHMOCAWCE S.A Bil, TET ICH THAN LARA AA CO BEGUM, MAMI RUE IU CHS tod, tit MEET TICE DAUCEMRB TRE, COR RB, MOM ORC RBOARE deh 6 WHT 4 TORE (ARN OEHHA ZRII BCE MAELO, TOR, (ARAL IL Cab Lo BEBE MEIC GABLE EO EOUMTHE PMT SRO DHE FOF MDD EE AMI LB LTS EB One (2) FRHSHOMALONMME TOMAR SENHA UL SWRI CA RT BA ORCL DDOMRT AS HBL SA, EO 35, HMBC LOU, FMB omRartIBE, WAGERMOMO RUT CHO”. CNGIML CR TRALFO LI CBAT OS. SF, IRSHERC Td, APM reich, PRON 4 FORE LOFMBEL TO I i HEE FALE S. LO EMR CHIT SO HAE RICRRECHO, EK, NEMO CRASH LR ASAT ABKS CRBCEMBA ENS, CNBOM HOOK, FMEMEMN LOT OR CRIT SC EDS, WKOMOFA TEMA ABL, B94 TIE BS SUM ER, EAI IL CHB ENT PMOL COSLSASN, EK, CHERDEH HSE CMI LICHSCLMTSS. BH, 5D BAT, WRRO EE ATIC. OTH, Je HET VOMERI SHA BERETS LOTHS. DS, BEA IRENA CHS AS, Cab Ht IA TI, VL OM>OBRED I 1 Tibet SO 5 SPOS EARBEABIRE > Swe, AUG: FY Fra eeaeta wi 920W OAM ERE SOc aro 2 8 A Be [RMT EAL AR hese wade RT | A WWoeEs a7 | wi @ jenn (sane ge). a(R ge Tee] te | ow OAR |OAB| AW Fe ene i [am | Tepe6 | too | aeie[ grea [az 6s [one | ae | a seme) i280 aos | ats 1| 3a | ag [39 as | ea [ag tar i _[ ous | pea bisg [rr [—26n3 | aza | 32 [ase ros) | re] 782. & at] 22692 | iarte | tat | 26 | e663 1 612 | iao—s9i1 | 1996 | 133 | Toss SET ANAT ICMR
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EU TRMORERLCD. 63, BIICERLT, BULGARI O THAICE ORB AS, JARS BOREL, PEBEMROT— FRAT 1k, BRE CME TAAMRO CIRC KS CE BALL CARER. 1, ATS, LBA PIER AR SLAF 57550320, [F]58750442) ONDER LOT BSCLERL, MBEKI. eeu 1) RS «AR ACA a AT MAK Y AT 6, EAP, No. 309, 1988, 2) ORPESHE ¢ HRAN 59 SPE MRSA, fustir. 3) SMES: + BRM: 5 EGR RTI BL Ho RAE ARAMRALEMEE/ ST — 7 OMED ZOE, iT SIDI 13, sBAAEMR, 1078 IRE REE! =A AC eI SMLLOG, Rist S, ARAL, 1971. 5) ARR. > ACR AC ABTRKC 8) SEES ST i, SALINE, 1976. 6) Ben-Akiva, M. aad Palma, A, : An Interactive Dyna mic Madel of Residential Locations, International Con- ference on Structural Economic Analysis and Planning in Time and Space, 1981 7) Lerman, S.R, : Neighbourhood Choice and Transporta tion Services in the Economics of Neighbourhood, Academic Press, 1979, 8) RAI « ENG: ARBRE 7 1 SPIRES, Got 17, ABMTGEMIEAR, 1982, 9) RE = RRMACAS « MMe 2 AABN AS A OREM MRt 7, ABEL BIM IT, wat 2, 1982, 10) A Ri + RNDAC AS «He SPIRAEA ATG tt SERED HE TL, LARIMER SING, 5, 1989, 11) Anas, A. and Duann, L.S, : Dynamic Forcasting of ‘Travel Demand, Residential Location and Land cy 12) Development, Paper prepared for presentation at the International Symposium on New Directions in Urban Modelling, 1988. Putman, S.H. : Theory and Practice in Urban Modell ing: THE ART OF APPLICATION, Usban Simulation 2) BK MR HAC Laboratory, Dept, of City and Regional Planaing, Univ. of Pennsylvania, 198), PORIIBL : LOBE TA AOR ATED, IOLA FL, LRABES YAY DO 198K, (1985. 3.20 + 44)

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