Advanced Scientific Research

Methods[HENG-6101]
Post Graduate Program in Hydraulic Engineering (2021/22 A.Y.)

"Well begun is half done" - Aristotle

By Chapter 2. Identification of Researchable Problem

Andinet K.
Tekile (PhD) 1. Where Do Research Topics Come from?
2. Problem statement – key Issue to Describe
3. Formulation of Hypothesis
 1. Where Do Research Topics Come from?
• 1st (& most difficult) task for a researcher - select topic of study & then to refine it to
produce workable proposal.
 it becomes susceptible to research.
• Medical doctor - examines all symptoms (presented to him & observed by him) about
a problem before he can diagnose correctly.
• Likewise, a researcher must know ‘what the problem is’, to define it correctly.

• Generally, fresh researchers - aim far too high in terms of extent of the research
which is possible & the discoveries which are sought.
• However, only little (in scope) can be achieved by a research & hence, necessity to
restrict the study so that adequate depth & rigour of investigation can be undertaken.
Research Topics …
Resources …time
• Important aspect to evaluate - quantities of resources to be devoted (e.g. duration available).
• Given period within which the research must be completed & considering any flexibilities,
amount of work to be undertaken begins to be apparent.
 Usually, report produced within the time frame (reduce time for executing the study).
• In undertaking research: 2% inspiration & 98% perspiration  not an easy option.
• But it is often the most rewarding form of study.
 Satisfaction & sense of achievement from a project completed well can be enormous;
 The efforts equip with expertise, experience and insights for future work.
• Determination (enthusiasm), specially in early days - great asset
 Major contributor to overcoming difficulties which will inevitably arise; it will be fun.
 Helps to ensure that the project is seen through to completion.
Research Topics …
• In part of a study research, topic fixed by individual but not made in isolation.
 Potential supervisors, with colleagues &, if possible, practitioners assist in selecting a
topic - interesting, feasible and appropriate to the context & people concerned - most
especially researcher.

• Time & effort spent to select & refine a topic & then plan to yield a proposal may
appear very long.
 But, it will be time well spent.

• Such formative stages are of paramount importance &, often, will be the main factor
determining whether the research is a success.
Possible steps …
Subject selection
• Even when the selection is confined within particular disciplines, vast
possibilities (say, in Hydraulic engineering research)
• Few pointers which may help you to identify as per your interest.
 Reservoir Operational Analysis
 Watershed Management
 Impact of Climate Change and Variability
 Flood Early Warning System Modeling
 Hydrology, e.g. Flow-Duration-Frequency Relationship
 Small Scale Energy Potential
Research Topics …
• Progressive narrowing & refinement – depending on nature of the discipline &
appropriate research methods.

• Essentially, the process is strategic – what is the particular initial question?

• Undertake SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis.
 Strengths & Weaknesses - individual or organization features (internal factors)
 Opportunities & Threats - present in the environment (external factors).

• Sound strategy - build on Strengths and overcome Weaknesses in seeking to take

advantage of Opportunities and to minimize possible effects of Threats.
Research Topics …
• In selecting a subject for a research, construct several lists:

List 1: Topics of interest to the researcher

List 2: Personal strengths and weaknesses

List 3: Topics of current interest in practice

List 4: Data required for each topic

List 5: Sources of data for each topic

List 6: Research limitations for each topic

Research Topics …
1st list - topics of interest in quite broad terms.
2nd list - personal strengths and weaknesses.
 Influence choice of topic directly, or might affect methodology & nature of analyses.
 While building on strengths good, interest-driven research extends skill & experience.
 Pursuing topic of interest to the researcher could enhance career opportunities.

3rd list - topics of current interest, what is being debated in the technical areas?
 ‘Sustainable construction’ or ‘Effective management of recourses’
 Adopting such topic, ease data collection due to interest in the subject. However,
 Many others may select those topics  similar data from limited sources (often
organisations) …the field may become ‘saturated’.
 Interest in topics quite short-lived and so, predict next issue of debate (like business).
Example?
Research Topics …
Example
List 1: Begin by listing topics of interest in quite broad terms
 Reservoir Operational Analysis;
 Small Scale Energy Potential;
 Urban water Demand Forecasting;
 Flood estimation

• Such topics - too broad & insufficiently specific for research, but the following topics could
lend themselves to investigation.
 Reservoir Inflow Forecasting and Operational Planning, Case of Genale Dawa HP Scheme;

 Assessment of Wind Energy Potential Using Weibull and Rayleigh Models in Tigray Region;

 ANNs Approach to Forecast Short Term Urban Water Demand, Case of Adama Town;

 Flood Estimation in Ungauged Basins of South Regional State, case in Abaya-Chamo Basin.
Research Topics …
List 2: Personal strengths and weaknesses may contain self-evaluations
 good at modeling or coding but quite weak in statistics;
 experienced in lab works but poor in cartography preparation & data analysis.

List 3: Over recent years, hot topics (topics of the time) include:
 Green building,
 Health and safety,
 Assessment of community based projects,
 Risk management,
 Waste management & other environmental issues.
Research Topics …
• Assess for hot topics: relevant & high impact factor journals in the specialization or
from press.
• Address
 the research question possibilities & variables involved,
 determine likely data requirements,
 sources of data & access to data via industry or practice contacts.
• Employer may wish for particular issues to be investigated - facilitate data provision
but may possibility restrict publication of the contents of the report, etc.

• List constraints & resources available – invaluable to determine practicality of

proposed study and assist in determining what can be done (not what it would be
‘nice’ to do).
Research Topics …
List 4: Data requirements
• Determined by: topic of investigation, research question & variables (independent &
dependent) involved.
• First define what is to be measured, then select appropriate metrics;
 Especially important for qualitative data – e.g. quality of a construction project or
component.
 Quantitative data must also be defined – e.g. capital cost of a project (to whom, when to
measure, units of measurement, etc.)

List 5: the possible sources of data

• Some sources better than others - ease of collecting, quality (accuracy, amount of data), etc.
• Access, ideally, matches data required, but likely modified by practicalities – sensitive data.
• Employers & sponsoring bodies as well as professional institutions – help to secure.
Research Topics …
List 6: Research limitations:
• Constraints on resources available to execute the research &, hence, scope of the study;
data available; methods/techniques employed.
• Time & resources available for research (for academic theses) likely well-known, so
particular limitations should be noted – esp. data availability.
• However, if limitations should have been predicted from nature of topic – literature,
experiences of other researchers, etc. – explain why such limitations were not taken into
account & avoided in research design.
• In any event, state reasons for what was done to overcome limitations & to ensure validity
of the resultant research.
• Do not force things;
 if difficult to get first idea, visit library & serendipity may yield a novel & exciting topic
(if horse races were predictable, everyone should win but would that be exciting?).
Research Topics …
• In summary, considerations to select research problem (ensure study remains manageable &
you remain motivated):
 Interest: research endeavor consumes time & involves hard work (possibly unforeseen
problems). So, choose topic of great interest to sustain required motivation. If so, you may
undertake all pains needed for the study.

 Magnitude: select topic you can manage within time & resources at your disposal. Narrow
the topic down to something manageable, specific & clear.

 Measurement of concepts: be clear about indicators of concepts (if used) in your study.

 Level of expertise: Make sure that you have adequate of it for the task - you do it yourself!

 Availability of data: Before finalizing the topic, make sure that data are available.

 Relevance: Ensure that your study adds to existing body of knowledge & bridges current
gaps. If so, you will sustain interest in the study.
Evaluating Alternatives & Refining a Topic
• After listing possible topics, constraints, requirements, etc., start evaluation (judging
possibilities vs criteria/desires).
 Let topics be driving force and requirements & constraints parametric factors (denote limits &
extent of work).
 Parametric factors may ‘loom large’ for student researcher, but should not dictate.
Evaluating alternatives
• Within overall subject domains, many topics may emerge. For the evaluation process, consider:
 ‘What does the research seek to achieve?’
 ‘What does the research seek to find out?’
• Achievement:
 Meeting purpose of conducting research, like obtaining good grade (important but ordinary),
 Personal advancement - understanding new subject area (enhance knowledge).
• Combination possible, but pay attention to self-motivation, to cope with 98% perspiration.
Alternatives and Refining …
• 2nd issue (what to find out) concerns selecting a topic within overall subject.
 So, evaluate list of topics allocated to overall subject area selected.
• Again, lists of personal factors, data availability, etc. will be used in evaluation, but
retain the topic as driver & various constraints as parameters.

• May be difficult to make a single choice, but whether 1, 2 or 3 topics result of the
evaluation, consult literature (leading journals & reputable texts).
1. Gain some preliminary, but further, understanding of issues related to the topics,
whether they have been investigated extensively already & any likely problems.

2. Examine particular terms used, the variables, data needed & way data collected &
analyzed.
Alternatives and Refining …
• Don’t be discouraged if the topic or closely related ones already investigated.
 Much research (including method) looks to replication of research.
 Replication (even if on reduced scale) of leading study, but in different context, thereby
changing only a variable if possible, has advantage of using tested & verified method.
 It allows more emphasis on examination of results, whilst monitoring methodology &
providing any necessary critique due to changed circumstances.

• Thus, evaluations of topics based on desires & constraints (in discussion with others)
result in selection of single topic.
• Evaluation doesn’t mean details of the topic won’t change. Research - iterative learning
process & investigation unknown likely requires changes from priori expectations. But,
not to the extent of radical change.
Alternatives and Refining …
Refining a topic
• Process of selection continues - investigations proceed & topic (through considering
definitions, variables & their r/ships, aspects of theory, findings of previous work,
etc.) emerges & undergoes progressive refinement.
• Goal - to delineate topic sufficiently well for:
 the aim & objectives of the research to be identified & Enable research plan to
be formulated, including
 appropriate methodologies considered. draft timetable

• Examine ‘ideal’ data set from research perspective; then review in context of
practicalities of data collection (including alternative data from different sources).
• Have foresight & perspective on practicality – if you can’t get the data, you cannot
do the research.
Alternatives and Refining …
Process of refining
topic for research.
2. Problem Statement - Key Issue to Describe
Necessity of Defining (formulating) the Problem
• A problem clearly stated is a problem half solved – prerequisite to any research.
• The problem to be investigated must be defined unambiguously
 distinguish relevant data from irrelevant ones,
 enable you be on the track whereas (ill-defined problem creates hurdles).

• A well-defined research question will,

 Define the topic – whether your focus is on green building, risk management, etc.
 Define nature of the research endeavor – discover, explain, describe, or compare.
 Define questions you are interested in – whether what, where, how, when, why?
 Indicate whether you foresee r/ship b/n concepts explored – whether you are looking for
impacts, increases, decreases, correlations, causes, etc.
Problem Statement …
• Research questions act as outline for the project. They point to
 theory you need to explore;
 literature you need to review;
 data you need to gather; and
 in particular, methods you need to call on.
• When research problem is well defined, researcher plan strategy & answer questions:
 What data are to be collected?
 What characteristics of data are relevant & need to be studied?
 What relations are to be explored?
 What techniques are to be used for the purpose?
• On careful detailing research problem, one work out research design & can smoothly
carry on all the consequential steps of doing research.
Problem Statement …
Rephrasing the research problem: into a working proposition.

• Once

 nature of problem has been clearly understood,

 environment (within which the problem has to be studied) has been defined,

 discussions over the problem have taken place and

 available literature has been surveyed and examined,

rephrasing the problem into analytical or operational terms is not difficult task.

• By rephrasing, put research problem in as specific terms as possible.

 become operationally feasible & may help in development of working hypotheses.

Problem Statement …
Besides, consider the following while defining research problem:

 Technical terms and words or phrases, with special meanings used in the
statement of the problem, should be clearly defined.

 Basic assumptions relating to the problem should be clearly stated.

 Straight forward statement of value of the investigation (i.e., the criteria for the
selection of the problem) should be provided.

 The suitability of the time-period and sources of data available.

 Mentioned explicitly scope of investigation (limits within which to study).

3. Formulation of Hypothesis
• Hypothesis -
 assumption put forth to represent known facts; it serves as starting-point for further
investigation to be proved or disproved and true theory arrived at.
 proposition stated merely as a basis for reasoning or argument.
 simply, an educated guess.
• Usually - reasonable suggestion of (causal) r/ship b/n independent & dependent variables.

• In more complex, may include anticipated impact of other variables (intervening) on the
main relationship.

• Basis for hypothesis - theory, practice, experience or some combination of those.

• May be formulated at early stages of producing proposal (if based on experience) but, in
many cases, formulated only after preliminary investigation of theory & literature.
Hypothesis …
Essentials of a valid hypothesis
• Not all research projects require a hypothesis.

• Appropriate to include when it is based on theory & previous work and, being
so, sets out to test existence of certain variables and/or any r/ship between them.

• Quantitative studies - most obvious instances with hypothesis to test.

• For a lot of studies, both possible & important to employ theory & literature
(findings of executed research) to formulate hypotheses to be tested.

• In both producing proposal for a research & in executing the research,

hypothesis acts as the focus for the work and helps to identify the boundaries.
Hypothesis …
• In framing (phrasing) hypothesis, formal notion of ‘null’ hypothesis and its complement,
‘alternative’ hypothesis are used.
• Together, they cover all possibilities of relationships between variables involved.
• In experiment of tossing coin to determine if the coin is fair (i.e. unbiased – equal chance of
‘heads’ and ‘tails’ for each toss):
 ‘null’ hypothesis – HO = the coin is fair
 ‘alternate’ hypothesis – HA = the coin is not fair (i.e. the coin is biased).
• KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) principle - efficiency principle, keep contents upfront,
simple and clear. Write plainly so that:
 Language - easy to read,
 arguments - can be followed readily & have no ambiguities and,
 perhaps most fundamentally, search for the simplest basic facts, principles, models, etc.
Hypothesis …
• To be valid and useful, research hypothesis must comply with 3 primary requirements:
 Testable – may be supported or rejected from empirical evidence.
 Positive – testing the hypothesis concerns what is, not what ought to be.
 Expressed in clear & simple language – same to everyone (i.e. consistent & same
meaning).
• A hypothesis must be falsifiable if it is to qualify for scientific research.
 Results of testing a hypothesis may support or disprove/not support the hypothesis.
 If supported (notably, via statistical testing), state level of confidence of the support.
 Theory or proposition must admit possibility of being shown to be false if it is to be
classified as scientific.
• Confirmed hypothesis adds support to the body of knowledge and theory and may, if
supported by related findings over time, develop into a theory itself.
Hypothesis …
• If appropriate to use hypothesis, it is likely that variety of hypotheses be considered.
• Apart from ensuring that the (main) hypothesis adopted relates to focal variables of
research, selection of which hypothesis to employ is guided by:
 Testability – can be falsified through appropriate testing (data collection &
analysis).
 Simplicity –follows KISS principle & minimise assumptions - remove those
making no material difference to outcome.
 Scope – the possible application to an array of situations.
 Fruitfulness – potential of application to other phenomena in the future.
 Conservatism – compatibility of with existing theory and literature.
Hypothesis …
• In conjunction with objectives, hypothesis specifies the focus of the research.
• Exploratory research, especially in new contexts, may have formulation of a
hypothesis as one of its main objectives for its outcomes.
 Hypothesis is inappropriate for qualitative study which carries out fundamental
investigation to identify what is occurring.
e.g. Observing behaviour in highly novel environment or in new community in
which established values, theories, etc. may not apply.
• For fundamental exploration of human behaviour (theory not developed &, hence,
where little or no research has been carried out), not possible to generate hypotheses
in a meaningful way.
 Do not force issues artificially (identification of variables & supposing causal
r/ships between them).
Hypothesis …
• Forcing hypotheses wrongly results in trivial hypotheses & then, hardly avoids
criticism of ‘factual surveys’ that do not include hypotheses and their testing!

 Recognize when it is appropriate to include hypotheses & when not.

• Research is dynamic in nature – so, initial hypothesis may be subject to revision.

• As research progresses (from preliminary investigations to proposal),

hypotheses may be modified as greater knowledge is gained.

• Occasionally (especially in new study areas), instead of including hypothesis in

proposal, developing it by examining theory and literature is reasonable.

 Hypothesis arises out of thorough & up-to-date understanding of the topic.

Hypothesis …
• Knowledge advances - adhering to initial ideas rigidly excludes advances.
 Knowledge advances produce ‘drift’ until a point is reached where a ‘step-
change’ occurs.
• For research to yield its full potential, developmental aspects must be incorporated.

Thus, do not feel either forced to include hypothesis or to be restricted by not being
allowed to amend once it has been advanced.
• However, if too much flexibility, objectives, as manifested in outputs, may suffer,
and it may be that the hypotheses change constantly from the original, resulting in
none to be ever tested.
• Hence, balance it! – not too much forcing but also a degree of limitation.