Mathematical Modeling 4Th Edition Meerschaert Solutions Manual Full Chapter PDF

Mathematical Modeling 4th Edition
Meerschaert Solutions Manual

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CHAPTER 6 EXERCISES
1. (a) The following graph shows the results of a simulation of the model with lambda=3
and w=0.25, starting with 2 blue and 5 red divisions. Red wins the battle in 39 hours with
2.2 divisions remaining.
b
l
1
u
e
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
red
(b) Repeated simulations as in part (a) but varying w yield the following results.
Weather Winning Hours of Divisions

(w) side combat remaining
0.1 Red 102 1.3
0.2 Red 49 2.0
0.25 Red 39 2.2
0.5 Red 20 2.7
0.75 Red 13 2.9
0.9 Red 11 3.0
(c) Red benefits from good weather, blue benefits from bad weather. We should expect
red to attack during good weather.
(d) Our conclusions from part (c) are still valid. Red would prefer to attack in good
weather. For example, in the scenario where 5 red divisions attack 2 blue divisions, and
the blue divisions have an equipment and training advantadge which makes one blue troop
as effective as 5 red troops, weather plays a deciding role. Red wins the war if the
weather is good, and blue wins if the weather is bad.
Case of lambda = 1.5

0.1 Red 58 3.3
0.2 Red 34 3.6
0.25 Red 29 3.7
0.5 Red 16 3.9
0.75 Red 11 4.0
0.9 Red 9 4.0

0.1 Red 66 2.7
0.2 Red 38 3.1
0.25 Red 31 3.3
0.5 Red 17 3.6
0.75 Red 12 3.7
0.9 Red 10 3.7

0.1 Blue 107 0.5
0.2 Red 113 0.4
0.25 Red 66 0.8
0.5 Red 26 1.7
0.75 Red 16 2.0
0.9 Red 13 2.1

0.1 Blue 61 0.9
0.2 Blue 46 0.8
0.25 Blue 43 0.7
0.5 Blue 36 0.4
0.75 Red 28 0.6
0.9 Red 20 0.9
2. (a) We used a spreadsheet implementation of the algorithm in Figure 6.2 with x1=Red
and x2=Blue to obtain the following results. Some lines are omitted.
n x1 x2 lambda
0 3 2 2
1 2.74 1.82
2 2.508132 1.658066
3 2.300738916 1.511866158
4 2.114768207 1.379437166
5 1.947652592 1.259112806
6 1.797218168 1.149468605
7 1.661612849 1.049278467
8 1.539250057 0.957480352
9 1.428764005 0.87314884
10 1.328973884 0.795473022
11 1.238854953 0.723738514
12 1.157515031 0.657312731
13 1.084175265 0.595632732
22 0.695240263 0.185026569
23 0.675451227 0.149621366
24 0.659478471 0.115343495
(b) Next we continue the simulation but add reinforcements. In the case where we wait 1
day for reinforcements, Red wins after 17 hours with 2.9 divisions remaining.
n x1 x2 lambda
0 3 2 2
12 1.157515031 0.657312731
13 3.084175265 0.595632732
14 3.006241634 0.43223879
17 2.898358935 -0.023656879
In the case where we wait 2 days for reinforcements, Red wins after 26 hours with 2.6
units remaining.
n x1 x2 lambda
0 3 2 2
24 0.659478471 0.115343495
25 2.647183456 0.081989238
26 2.636814126 -0.051455137
(c) In the case where Red commits all 5 divisions at the beginning of the battle, Red wins
after 9 hours with 3.7 divisions remaining. See Table I on p. 160 of the text. This is the
best option for Red.
(d) Regardless of the magnitude of Blue's weapons effectiveness advantadge, it is optimal
for Red to attack full force on day one. Holding troops back in reserve only makes Red
do worse.
Advantadge Reinforcements Hours of Winning Remaining

(lambda) arrive on day combat side forces
1.0 0 8 red 4.4
1.0 1 15 red 4.1
1.0 2 16 red 2.1
1.5 0 9 red 4.1
1.5 1 16 red 3.5
1.5 2 19 red 1.5
3.0 0 10 red 3.0
3.0 1 29 red 0.8
3.0 2 13 blue 1.0
5.0 0 17 red 1.0
5.0 1 7 blue 1.4
5.0 2 7 blue 1.4
6.0 0 13 blue 0.6
6.0 1 5 blue 1.5
6.0 2 5 blue 1.5
3. (a) Using a spreadsheet implementation of the algorithm in figure 6.2 we see that in the
case where Blue calls for an immediate nuclear strike, Blue wins in 9 hours with 0.9
divisions remaining. In the conventional warfare scenario, Red won in 10 hours with 3.0
divisions remaining. So the nuclear strategy is to Blue's advantadge in this case.
n x1 x2 lambda
0 1.5 1.3 3
1 1.27575 1.21525
2 1.070207172 1.143710724
8 0.083924597 0.933595178
9 -0.057289954 0.929007191
(b) We multiply x1 by 0.3 and x2 by 0.65 at hour 6 and continue the simulation. Now
x1=Red wins in 16 hours with 0.7 divisions remaining. This is better than the
conventional scenario, but not as good as the immediate strike.
n x1 x2 lambda
0 5 2 3
1 4.55 1.7
5 3.425449827 0.779073247
6 0.980567608 0.386397293
15 0.673912692 0.01897323
16 0.670874913 -0.014786336
(c) A nuclear strike can be very effective. In this case, it makes the difference between
winning and losing the war. If tactical nuclear weapons are used, they should be used
immediately in order to produce the maximum benefit to Blue.
(d) For any value of the weapons effectiveness advantadge parameter lambda, we find
that the optimal strategy for Blue is to attack immediately with tactical nuclear weapons.
Advantadge Nuclear weapons Hours of Winning Remaining
(lambda) used on hour combat side forces
1.0 0 26 red 0.7
1.0 6 10 red 1.3
1.0 never 8 red 4.4
1.5 0 27 blue 0.4
1.5 6 11 red 1.2
1.5 never 9 red 4.1
2.0 0 16 blue 0.7
2.0 6 12 red 1.0
2.0 never 9 red 3.7
5.0 0 5 blue 1.1
5.0 6 12 blue 0.4
5.0 never 17 red 1.0
6.0 0 4 blue 1.1
6.0 6 9 blue 0.5
6.0 never 13 blue 0.6
4. (a) A spreadsheet implementation of the discrete time simulation yields the following
results. Recall that n is the number of 15 second time steps, x1 is the current velocity
(m/sec), and x2 is the previous velocity (m/sec). In this case, docking is achieved after 15
steps or 225 seconds.
n x1 x2 k
0 50 50 0.02
1 35 50
2 23 35
3 14.9 23
4 9.62 14.9
5 6.206 9.62
6 4.0028 6.206
7 2.58164 4.0028
8 1.665032 2.58164
9 1.0738616 1.665032
10 0.69258608 1.0738616
11 0.446682704 0.69258608
12 0.288087555 0.446682704
13 0.185801774 0.288087555
14 0.119832663 0.185801774
15 0.077285953 0.119832663
(b) We repeat the simulation of part (a) for each value of k and tabulate the results.
According to these results, the optimal value is k = 0.03 which results in a successful
docking in 6 steps or 90 seconds.
k Steps to dock Time to dock (sec)

0.01 36 345
0.02 15 225
0.03 6 90
0.04 8 120
0.05 8 120
0.06 11 165
0.07 12 180
0.08 14 210
0.09 15 225
0.10 17 255
0.11 22 330
0.12 25 375
0.13 31 465
0.14 37 555
0.15 46 690
0.16 58 870
0.17 82 1230
0.18 100+ 1500+
0.19 100+ 1500+
0.20 never docks infinity
(c) We repeat the simulation exercise of part (b) but change the initial velocity to 25
m/sec. In this case the optimal value is again k = 0.03 which results in a successful
docking in 5 steps or 75 seconds. We did not tabulate the cases k>0.10 since the time to
dock was much larger than the optimal.

0.01 32 480
0.02 13 195
0.03 5 75
0.04 6 90
0.05 7 105
0.06 9 135
0.07 10 150
0.08 12 180
0.09 13 195
0.10 15 225
(d) We repeat the simulation exercise of part (b) but change the initial velocity to 100
m/sec. In this case the optimal value is again k = 0.03 which results in a successful
docking in 8 steps or 120 seconds. We did not tabulate the cases k>0.10 since the time to
dock was much larger than the optimal. On the basis of our sensitivity analysis we
conclude that a value of k = 0.03 is optimal for this control parameter. In other words, we
should apply an acceleration in the opposite direction as our velocity, and 3% as large,
each 15 seconds.

0.01 40 600
0.02 16 240
0.03 8 120
0.04 9 135
0.05 10 150
0.06 11 165
0.07 13 195
0.08 16 240
0.09 17 255
0.10 19 285
5. (a) See exercise 10, chapter 4 for the complete description of this model. We let x1 =
number of currently infected persons and x2 = number of immune persons. We model this
problem as a discrete time dynamical system Delta x = F(x) where x = (x1, x2) and F =
(f1, f2) with
f1(x1,x2) = (40/18*70,000)*x1*(100,000-x1-x2) - (1/3)*x1
f2(x1,x2) =(1/3)*x1
Our state space is S = {(x1, x2): x1 >=0, x2 >=0}, and our initial condition is x1 = 18 and
x2 = 30,000. We use a spreadsheet implementation of the algorithm in figure 6.2 to obtain
the following results. Some lines are omitted. Eventually the entire population has been
infected and becomes immune.
week x1 x2
0 18 30000
1 51.98971429 30006
2 150.0967978 30023.3299
3 432.7865971 30073.36217
4 1243.318284 30217.62437
5 3534.144352 30632.0638
6 9742.322383 31810.11192
7 24571.54913 35057.55271
8 47872.31871 43248.06909
9 45409.72439 59205.50866
10 23619.92862 74342.08345
39 0.228974136 99937.09938
40 0.153104985 99937.1757
(b) The maximum number of infected persons is about 48,000 on week eight. See above.
(c,d) We investigate the sensitivity of the maximum number of infected persons to the
number I infected on week one. Note that I effects our dynamical system equations as
well as our initial condition. In our new, generalized model we have
f1(x1,x2) = (40/I*70,000)*x1*(100,000-x1-x2) - (1/3)*x1
f2(x1,x2) =(1/3)*x1
with initial condition x1 = I and x2 = 30,000. This maximum varies significantly with I. If
the 18 cases reported on week 1 was underestimated by a factor of two, then the
maximum number of infected persons will be about half what we currently expect.
I Maximum
10 69104.06079
15 56850.06283
20 48954.92825
25 38728.39584
30 33752.68515
35 27932.75422
40 24047.28027
6. (a) See exercise 4 of chapter 4 for the complete model. We let x = Blue whales and
y = Fin whales and we write d(x,y)/dt = F(x,y) where F = (f1, f2) and
f1(x,y) = 0.05*x - alpha*x*y
f2(x,y) = 0.08*y - alpha*x*y
The state space is the set S consisting of all (x,y) for which x >= 0 and y >= 0. We
assume that alpha=10^(-7) and we use the initial conditions x = 5,000 and y = 70,000.
The results of the simulation are shown below. The Blue whales go extinct and the Fin
whale population just keeps increasing.
DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION
12000 7000000
10000 6000000
8000 5000000
4000000
x 6000 y
3000000
4000 2000000
2000 1000000
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
n n
(b, c) Essentially the same behavior occurs in each case.
(d) There is not much qualitative change in the behavior of the fin whale population. It
always continues to grow. There is also no change in the fact that the blue whales are
eventually extinct. But the time it takes for the blue whale population to become extinct is
quite sensitive to alpha.
alpha time to extinction (years)
10^(-5) 10
10^(-6) 25
10^(-7) 60
10^(-8) 90
10^(-9) 120

alpha = 10^(-5) alpha = 10^(-6)
5000 5000
4000 4000
3000 3000
x x
2000 2000
1000 1000
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
n n
alpha = 10^(-8) alpha = 10^(-9)
50000 200000
40000
150000
30000
x 20000 x 100000
10000
50000
0
-10000 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
n n
7. (a) See exercise 5 of chapter 4 for the complete model. Let x1 = Blue whales and
x2 = Fin whales and let dx1/dt = f1(x1,x2) and dx2/dt = f2(x1,x2) where
f1(x1, x2) = 0.05*x1*(x1-3000)/(x1+3000)*(1-x1/150,000) - 10^(-8)*x1*x2
f2(x1, x2) = 0.08*x2*(x2-15,000)/(x2+15,000)*(1-x2/400,000) - 10^(-8)*x1*x2
The state space is the set S consisting of all (x1,x2) for which x1 >= 0 and x2 >= 0.
Starting at x1 = 5,000 and x2 = 70,000 the blue whale population grows back to around
140,000 blue whales in about 200 years, and the fin whale population settles down to
around 400,000 fin whales in about 100 years. The graphs below summarize the results
of our simulation. They were prepared using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet
implementation of the simple simulation method of Section 6.2, equivalent to the Euler
method of Section 6.3 with step size h=1.
160 450
140 400
350
120
Blue (1000s)
Fin (1000s) 300

100
250
80
200
60 150
40 100
20 50
0 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 0 50 100 150 200
t (years) t (years)
(b) There are two distinct cases depending on the initial population of the Blue whale. If
the Blue whale population starts below 4,000 then the behavior is much different than the
case considered in part (a). The Fin whale population grows back rapidly to its
equilibrium value of around 400,000 and the Blue whale population becomes extinct.
The case where we start with x1(0) = 2,000 Blue whales is shown below. The time it
takes for the Blue whale to become extinct is quite sensitive to the initial number of Blue
whales.
Initial Blue whale population time to extinction (years)

2,000 100
3,000 200
2.5 400
350
2
300
Blue (1000s)
Fin (1000s)
1.5 250
200
1 150
100
0.5
50
0 0
0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200
t (years) t (years)
If we start with 4,000 or more Blue whales then the Blue whale population does not
become extinct. Instead the Blue whales grow back to their equilibrium value of near
150,000. We conclude that our model is quite sensitive to the initial population of Blue
whales, which makes sense since our model was constructed to include the effects of a
minimum viable population.
Initial Blue whale population time to grow back (years)

4,000 300
5,000 200
6,000 200
8,000 200
(c.) In all cases, the Fin whale population grows back rapidly to its equilibrium value of
around 400,000 and the Blue whale population also grows back. The time it takes for the
Blue whale to grow back is quite sensitive to the intrinsic growth rate of the Blue whales.
Intrinsic growth rate (%) time to extinction (years)

0.02 1000
0.03 500
0.04 300
0.06 200
0.07 200
(d) There are two distinct cases depending on the minimum viable population M for the
Blue whale. If we M <= 4000 then the behavior is like the case considered in part (a).
Instead the Blue whales grow back to their equilibrium value of near 150,000. We
conclude that our model is sensitive to the minimum viable population of Blue whales.
Minimum viable population time to grow back (years)

1000 200
2000 200
4000 300
If M >= 5000 then the Fin whale population grows back rapidly to its equilibrium value
of around 400,000 and the Blue whale population becomes extinct. The time it takes for
the Blue whale to become extinct is sensitive to the minimum viable population of the
Blue whales.
Minimum viable population time to extinction (years)

5000 200
6000 150
8. (a) See exercise 6 in chapter 4 for the complete model. Let x = Blue whales and y =
Fin whales and write d(x,y)/dt = F(x,y) where F = (f1, f2) and
f1(x, y) = 0.05*x*(1-x/150000) - 10^(-8)*x*y - 10^(-5)*E*x
f2(x, y) = 0.08*y*(1-y/400000) - 10^(-8)*x*y - 10^(-5)*E*y
The state space is the set S={(x, y): x >= 0 and y >= 0}. Our initial condition is x(0) =
5,000 and y(0) = 70,000 and we assume that E = 3,000 boat-days. We use a spreadsheet
to simulate the behavior of this dynamical system as in section 6.2 of the text. Some lines
are omitted. Eventually both species increase to around x=52,600 blue whales and
y=247,000 fin whales. It takes around 100 years for the fin whale population to grow
back, and around 300 years for the blue whales, which are more severely depleted and
have a lower intrinsic growth rate.
n x y E
0 5000 70000 3000
1 5088.166667 72516.5
2 5177.610426 75086.90669
3 5268.339044 77709.7556
4 5360.360013 80383.38814
5 5453.680554 83105.95089
10 5940.011064 97374.41773
20 7013.578163 128007.5693
50 11076.72132 206313.0089
100 20630.5365 245149.3537
200 41465.93119 248083.6598
300 50263.60821 247542.4757
400 52166.88457 247402.6375
500 52507.80541 247376.5432
600 52566.67762 247371.999
700 52576.77899 247371.2181
800 52578.51028 247371.0843
900 52578.80695 247371.0613
1000 52578.85779 247371.0574
(b) We repeat part (a) but now we assume that E=6000 boat-days per year. Now the fin
whale population increases in about 100 years to around 100,000 fin whales, while the
blue whales become extinct in a few centuries.
n x y E
0 5000 70000 6000
1 4938.166667 70416.5
2 4877.179219 70829.65602
3 4817.023979 71239.42662
4 4757.687545 71645.77235
5 4699.156791 72048.65578
10 4418.146875 74009.96711
20 3909.705184 77656.97289
50 2728.26245 86342.62428
100 1522.311712 94482.38458
200 489.6120263 99197.60172
300 160.4351427 99882.10036
400 52.90858986 99980.82129
500 17.48592392 99996.29156
600 5.783129629 99999.12313
700 1.913113831 99999.75634
800 0.632926092 99999.92555
900 0.209399935 99999.97619
1000 0.069279356 99999.99223
(c) We repeat the above simulation for several different values of E and take x(1000) to
be the equilibrium value for blue whales. We judge that the blues are becoming extinct if
x(1000)<100. On this basis we conclude that the blues will become extinct if E>5,220
boat-days per year.
(d) We repeat part (c) for some different values of alpha, the parameter which measures
the extent of interspecies competition. We tabulate the largest value of E for which both
the Blue whales and Fin whales can coexist. This value is quite sensitive to alpha.
alpha Emax
10^(-9) 5 ,340
10^(-8) 5 ,220
10^(-7) 2 ,820
10^(-6) 0
10 ^(-5) 0
9. (a) We used a spreadsheet implementation of the simple simulation technique of

Section 6.2 to obtain the following results. The harvest rate in BWU at 300 years is taken
as the long-term harvest rate. We find the rate to be 3782.221196 or about 3780 BWU
per year.
n x y BWU E
0 5000 70000 1200 3000
1 5056.666667 72485 1238.975
2 5112.623459 75021.78171 1278.705429 LT Harvest
3 5167.807143 77608.86143 1319.167136 3782.221196
4 5222.154446 80244.57067 1360.333193
5 5275.602282 82927.05602 1402.173909
6 5328.087985 85654.28048 1444.656847
7 5379.54955 88424.026 1487.746876
8 5429.92588 91233.89748 1531.406239
(b) We repeat the limulation in each of the cases E = 500, 1,000, 1,500, ..., 7,500, boat-
days per year. We find that 4000 boat days per year yields the maximum long term yield
of about 4000 BWU per year.
n x y BWU E
0 5000 70000 1600 4000
1 5006.666667 71785 1635.966667
2 5012.437406 73589.8424 1672.294344 LT Harvest
3 5017.30049 75413.45667 1708.961153 4008.832932
4 5021.245196 77254.71985 1745.944205
5 5024.261858 79112.4588 1783.21965
6 5026.341903 80985.45276 1820.762731
7 5027.477893 82872.4361 1858.547838
8 5027.66356 84772.10147 1896.548572
9 5026.893835 86683.10314 1934.737816
10 5025.164877 88604.06051 1973.087805
(c) It seems that the blue whales will go extinct in a few centuries and the fin whale
population will stabilize at about 200,000 whales. Since there are less fins than this now,
we wonder whether this is really the way whalers are behaving.

6000 200000
5000 180000
4000 160000
140000
x 3000 y
120000
2000 100000
1000 80000
0 60000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
n n
(d) As stated in part (c), this would cause the Blue whale to become extinct.
10. (a) We used a spreadsheet implementation of the model to produce the following
results. The total discounted REVENUE converges as n increases. We took the total
discounted revenue to be the total after 300 years. In the case of 3000 boat-days we
obtain 158354728.2 or approximately $158 billion.
n x y REVENUE E BWU
0 5000 70000 12000000 3000 1200
1 5056.666667 72485 23150775 1238.975
2 5112.623459 75021.78171 33508288.98 Total REV 1278.705429
3 5167.807143 77608.86143 43125017.4 158354728.2 1319.167136
4 5222.154446 80244.57067 52050163.48 1360.333193
5 5275.602282 82927.05602 60329860.19 1402.173909
6 5328.087985 85654.28048 68007358.99 1444.656847
7 5379.54955 88424.026 75123206.18 1487.746876
8 5429.92588 91233.89748 81715407.89 1531.406239
9 5479.157036 94081.32822 87819584.32 1575.594634
10 5527.184485 96963.58673 93469114.17 1620.269335
(b) The highest yield was at 7500 boat-days, which resulted in a total discounted revenue
of 272841399.2 or about $273 billion.
n x y REVENUE E BWU
0 5000 70000 30000000 7500 3000
1 4831.666667 69335 56661937.5 2962.4375
2 4669.592972 68686.70619 80362302.24 Total REV 2925.970955
3 4513.510885 68054.49311 101434461.4 272841399.2 2890.556808
4 4363.16605 67437.7663 120173685.7 2856.15369
5 4218.316942 66835.96045 136841578.6 2822.722287
6 4078.734093 66248.5376 151669979.4 2790.225217
7 3944.199366 65674.98553 164864406.3 2758.62691
8 3814.505289 65114.81618 176607093.4 2727.893504
9 3689.454426 64567.56433 187059670.1 2697.992744
10 3568.858798 64032.78617 196365527.7 2668.893891
(c) A few more simulations as in part (b) seem to indicate that total discounted revenue
keeps increasing as level of effort increases. Thus the whalers will try to maximize their
level of effort. For example if the level of effort is 10,000 boat-days per year, the total
discounted revenue is $305 billion. In this case the behavior of the populations of blue
whales (x) and fin whales (y) are shown below. Both species will become extinct within a
few centuries. This model seems more likely to describe the real behavior of whalers than
the model in problem 9, since whalers do seem to have depleted both populations of
whales. If we assume E=7,500 then blue whales go extinct and fins decline to 25,000.
DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION

5000 70000
60000
4000 50000
3000 40000
x y
30000
2000
20000
1000 10000
0 0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
n n
(d) The general behavior remains the same. Total discounted revenue is monotone
increasing as a function of level of effort, and so whalers will harvest as many whales as
the can as fast as they can, resulting in the eventual extinction of both species. Since there
is an economic incentive for the whalers to extinct the whales, outside intervention is
necessary in order to save the whales. It is interesting to observe that, when we take into
account the discount rate, it is economically optimal for the whalers to put themselves out
of business. But after all, the stock of whales can never increase by as much as 10% per
year, which is how fast the profit from harvesting will appreciate if we invest it in some
other enterprise (assuming a 10% discount rate).
11. (a) As in exercise 7 of chapter 4 we let

x1 = number of blue whales
x2 = number of fin whales
The dynamical system is
x1' = f1(x1,x2)
x2' = f2(x1,x2),
where
f1(x1,x2) = .05x1(1-x1/150,000)+(.02/500) x1 x2
f2(x1,x2) = .25 x2(1-x2/500)-(.10/150000) x1 x2.
The state space is
S = {(x1,x2): x1>= 0, x2>= 0}.
Starting at any initial condition x1>0, x2>0, and using a computer simulation based on the
simple simulation techniques of section 6.2, the state variables x1 and x2 eventually
stabilize at their equilibrium levels. For example we have
n x1 x2
0 50000 500
1 52666.66667 483.3333333
2 55393.62963 470.3907407
3 58182.75906 459.9836011
4 61034.01047 451.3449681
5 63945.88992 443.960141
6 66915.73585 437.4735886
(intermediate steps deleted)
493 181034.4828 258.6206897
494 181034.4828 258.6206897
495 181034.4828 258.6206897
496 181034.4828 258.6206897
497 181034.4828 258.6206897
498 181034.4828 258.6206897
499 181034.4828 258.6206897
500 181034.4828 258.6206897
(b) We repeat the simulation of part (a) starting at

x1(0) = 0.80 (181034.4828) = 144827.5862
x2(0) = 0.20 (258.6206897) = 51.72413793.
The following graphs show the results of this simulation. Both species grow back to
equilibrium in about 100 years. The whale population increases gradually over this period.
The krill population actually overshoots the equilibrium and then it comes back down.
185000 300
180000
w 175000 250
170000 k
h
a 165000 r 200
i
l 160000 l 150
e 155000
s l
150000 100
145000
140000 50
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100
years years
(c) We repeat the simulation of part (a) starting at

x1(0) = 0.05 (181034.4828) = 9051.724095
x2(0) = 258.6206897.
The following graphs show the results of this simulation. Again it takes about 100 years
for both populations to return to their equilibrium levels. The whale population grows
slowly and steadily. The krill population grows rapidly to a level near the environmental
carrying capacity for krill in the absence of whales (500 tons/acre), and then as the whale
population grows the krill population is again forced down to its equilibrium level.
200000 500
w 150000 450
k
h
r 400
a
100000 i
l
l 350
e
s 50000 l
300
0 250
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100
years years
(d) To be definite we measure the time T it takes for the blue whale population to grow
back to 180,000 whales. We repeat the simulation of part (c) starting at p = 1, 3, 5, 7, and
10 percent of the equilibrium value of 181034.4828 whales to obtain the results tabulated
below. There is not too much sensitivity to this parameter. In every case it takes about
100 years for the whales to grow back. Numerically we approximate S(T,p) = -0.1.
x1(0) p T
1810.34 0.01 133
5431.03 0.03 117
9051.72 0.05 109
12672.41 0.07 104
18103.45 0.10 98
12. (a) We assume d(x,y)=F(x,y) where F=(f1,f2) and

f1(x, y) = 0.10*x-(0.10/10000)*x^2-(0.05/10000)*x*y
f2(x, y) = 0.25*y-(0.25/6000)*y^2-(0.125/6000)*x*y
on the state space S={(x,y):x>=0 and y>=0} starting at x(0)=100 tons/acre of hardwoods
and y(0)=1500 tons/acre of softwoods. We use a spreadsheet implementation of the
simulation technique in section 6.2 of the text. Some lines are omitted. On p. 121
equation (2) in the text we calculated that the equilibrium point is at (9333,1333). The
hardwoods increase to (0.9)*9333=8400 in about 100 years. The softwoods overshoot
the equilibrium and then start back down. They come back down to (1.1)*1333=1467 in
about 150 years.
n x y
0 100 1500
1 109.15 1778.125
2 118.9754511 2086.87418
3 129.4900106 2421.959923
4 140.7032369 2776.504084
5 152.6222711 3141.284001
10 223.2407272 4750.592156
20 439.0361206 5738.715955
50 2546.091487 4979.097908
75 6178.030154 3370.748499
100 8372.7694 2157.477294
125 9032.582288 1653.02917
150 9224.62208 1461.858243
(b) After 63 years there are 4407 tons/acre of hardwoods and 4187 tons/acre of
softwoods. At this point the hardwoods are increasing by 154 tons/acre per year, the
maximum rate. This number is f1(x,y).
(c) After 63 years the value of the forest timber is increasing at the fastest rate. In units
of one ton/acre of softwood the rate is 549 per year, i.e. this is the value of V=4*f1(x,y) +
f2(x,y) at this point, and this is the maximum of this quantity.
13. (a) See exercise 12 above. We compute A=V/n where V=4*f1(x,y) + f2(x,y) and n is
time in years. The units are in the value of one ton/acre of softwood. The maximum
occurs at n=75 years. So this model suggests that we should clear-cut in intervals of 75
years.
600
550
500
450
400
A
350
300
250
200
150
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
n
(b) If we only plant hardwoods then it is optimal to clear-cut on intervals of 55 years.
This also produces about 50% higher value than in part (a). Note that the highest value
occurs after one year, but our model is not really valid over such a short range. The new
saplings are not as valuable as older trees.
900
800
700
600
A
500
400
300
200
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
n
(c) If we only plant softwoods then it is optimal to clear-cut on intervals of 20 years. The
value here is the lowest of the three options considered.
250
200
A 150
100
50
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
n
(d) We do not really know how much one ton/acre of softwoods is worth, or how many
acres in the forest tract. Suppose that one ton of softwood will generate P dollars of
profit for the company. The best use that the company can make of the land under the
clear-cutting scheme is to clear-cut every 55 years, and replant only hardwoods. This will
generate 600*P dollars per year per acre. Suppose that the company can sell the land for
a price of Q dollars per acre, and that the company can put the money to another use
which will net a return of R% per year. Then the company should sell the land if
(R/100)*Q exceeds 600*P.
14. (a) See exercise 5 in chapter 4 for the complete model. Let x = Blue whales and y =
Fin whales and write d(x, y)/dt = F(x,y) where F = (f1, f2) and
f1(x1, x2) = 0.05*x1*(x1-3000)/(x1+3000)*(1-x1/150,000) - 10^(-8)*x1*x2
f2(x1, x2) = 0.08*x2*(x2-15,000)/(x2+15,000)*(1-x2/400,000) - 10^(-8)*x1*x2
The state space is the set S consisting of all (x1,x2) for which x1 >= 0 and x2 >= 0.
Starting at x1 = 5,000 and x2 = 70,000 the blue whale population grows back to around
140,000 blue whales in about 200 years, and the fin whale population settles down to
around 400,000 fin whales in about 100 years. The graphs below summarize the results
of our simulation. They were prepared using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet
implementation of the Euler method of Section 6.3 with step size h=0.5. The picture are
more or less indistinguishable from the results of Exercise 6.7 using the simple
simulation method of Section 6.2, evidence that h=1.0 is small enough for this problem.
160 400
140 350
120 300
Blue (1000s)
Fin (1000s)
100 250
80 200
60 150
40 100
20 50
0 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 0 50 100 150 200
t (years) t (years)
(b, c, d) For most initial the solution curve tends towards the stable equilibrium near
(140,000, 400,000) so that both species coexist. For initial values of Blue or Fin whales
near or below the minimum viable population, that species goes extinct.
500
450
400
350
Fin (1000s)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 50 100 150 200
Blue (1000s)
40
35
30
Fin (1000s)
25
20
15
10
5
0
0 50 100 150 200
Blue (1000s)
15. (a) Using the assumptions from Figure 5.7 the dynamical system is now
dx1/dt = f1(x1,x2) = (x1-x1^3-x2) / L

dx2/dt = f2(x1,x2) = x1
so the vector field is much like Figure 5.11 except that as L grows the f1 coordinate
shrinks, making the vectors steeper.
(b) The linear system is x'=Ax where A=[[1/L,-1/L],[1,0]]. The eigenvalues of A are
both complex with positive real part when 1 - 4L < 0 or in other words L > 1/4.
( c) We use Excel to simulate the solution starting at x1=0.1, x2=0.3 for different values
of L. The limit cycle gets larger as L increases. These graphs use T=20 and h=0.1.
L = 0.5 L = 0.75
2 2
1.5 1.5
1 1
0.5 0.5
x2
x2
0 0
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
-0.5 -0.5
-1 -1
-1.5 -1.5
-2 -2
x1 x1
L = 1.5 L = 2.0
2 2
1.5 1.5
1 1
0.5 0.5
x2
x2
0 0
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
-0.5 -0.5
-1 -1
-1.5 -1.5
-2 -2
x1 x1
(d) The Excel portraits for each value of L show the same behavior. There is a unique
limit cycle that attracts all solution curves. As L gets smaller we need a smaller step size
h to maintain accuracy. We used h=0.1 for L=1.5, 2.0 and h=0.05 for L=0.5,0.75.
L = 0.5 L = 0.75
3 3
2 2
1 1
x2
x2
0 0
-2 -1 0 1 2 -2 -1 0 1 2
-1 -1
-2 -2
-3 -3
x1 x1
L = 1.5 L = 2.0
3 3
2 2
1 1
x2
x2
0 0
-2 -1 0 1 2 -2 -1 0 1 2
-1 -1
-2 -2
-3 -3
x1 x1
16. (a) Using equation (11) we see that when C > 4 there are two real, distinct
eigenvalues of the form 1 / 2 + A and 1 / 2 - A where A = SQRT(1-4 / C) / 2 so that
A < 1 / 2. Then v1 = [1, 1 / 2 - A] is an eigenvector belonging to 1 / 2 + A and likewise
v2 = [1, 1 / 2 + A] is an eigenvector belonging to 1 / 2 - A. Then the general solution is of
the form x = [x1, x2] = c1*v1*exp(t*(1 / 2 + A)) + c2*v2*exp(t*(1 / 2 - A)).
(b) The following graph shows the phase portrait for the linear system in the case
C = 16 / 3, in which case A = 1 / 4. All solution curves travel outwards. The phase
portrait is similar for any C > 4. As C decreases towards 4 the eigenvalue lines get closer,
both tending toward slope 1 / 2. As C gets larger the eigenvalue lines spread apart,
tending to the horizontal and vertical as C goes to infinity.
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
(c) We used a spreadsheet implementation of the Euler method to produce the following
results. As C increases the rotation gets slower, so we must either use a larger step size or
more steps. As C increases the limit cycle gets smaller.
C=5
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
C=6
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
C=8
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
C=10
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
(d) The phase portrait in the cases C = 5, 6, 8, 10 are quite similar to the case C = 1 in the
text. There is a general counterclockwise flow, and a unique limit cycle. As C increases
the limit cycle gets smaller, and the flow gets slower. The only qualitative difference in
the phase portraits occurs near the origin. For 0 < C < 4 we get spirals, and for C > 4 we
get the behavior detailed in part (b) above. As C increases towards 4 the spirals rotate
more and more slowly, and then as C increases past 4 they disappear completely, but in a
smooth way. But on a scale large enough to see the overall behavior, the differences near
the origin are impossible to see.
17. (a) Now the dynamical system is
x1' = f1(x1,x2)
x2' = f2(x1,x2),
where
f1(x1,x2) = a x1 - x13 - x2
f2(x1,x2) = x1.
The vector field is essentially the same as in Figure 5.11 in the text, for all values of a > 0.
(b) The form of the linear system that approximates the behavior of our dynamical system
x'=F(x) in the neighborhood of the equilibrium x=(0,0) is x'=Ax where A is the matrix of
partial derivatives of F(x) evaluated at the equilibrium point. We use DERIVE to
compute the matrix of partial derivatives A at the equilibrium point and its eigenvalues.
f1:=a*x1-x1^3-x2
f2:=x1
A:=[[DIF(f1,x1),DIF(f1,x2)],[DIF(f2,x1),DIF(f2,x2)]]
[[a-3*x1^2,-1],[1,0]]
[x1:=0,x2:=0]
[[a,-1],[1,0]]
EIGENVALUES(A)
[w=(a-SQRT(a^2-4))/2,w=(SQRT(a^2-4)+a)/2]
For 0 < a < 2 both eigenvalues are complex with positive real part (a/2) and so the
equilibrium is unstable. For a > 2 both eigenvalues are real and positive (see graph
below), so the equilibrium is still unstable.
10
9
8
e
i 7
g
e 6
n 5
v
a 4
l
u 3
e
2
1
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
a
(c) For 0 < a < 2 the phase portrait consists of spirals outward, counterclockwise. As a
increases the spirals spread out. The following graphs were obtained using a spreadsheet
implementation of the Euler method to simulate the dynamical system for different values
of the parameter a. Each graph shows a representative solution curve beginning at
x1(0) = 0.01 and x2(0) = 0.01. As a approaches 2 from below the rate of rotation tends to
zero. After a increases beyond 2 the solution curves tend to infinity without any rotation.
a = 0.25
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1 0 1
a = 0.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1 0 1
a = 0.75
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1 0 1
(d) We used a spreadsheet implementation of the Euler method to simulate the nonlinear
dynamical system model for several different values of a. In each case there is a unique
counterclockwise limit cycle. Solution curves beginning inside the limit cycle spiral
outward, and those starting outside spiral inward, just as in the base case a=1 considered
in the text. As a increases the limit cycle gets larger. The period also increases slowly as a
increases, from about 6.5 in the case a=0.5 to about 8 in the case a=2. Since the behavior
of this dynamical system does not vary significantly as we change the form of the v-i
characteristic, we conclude that the model is robust with regard to the assumed form of
this function.
a=0.5 a=0.75
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
-1 -1
-2 -2
-3 -3
-2 -1 0 1 2 -2 -1 0 1 2
a=1.5 a=2.0
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
-1 -1
-2 -2
-3 -3
-2 -1 0 1 2 -2 -1 0 1 2
19. (a) Step 1: Ask the question. This problem requires some knowledge of elementary
physics. The total force on an object F moving in the direction parameterized by s must
satisfy F=m*s'' where s'=ds/dt. The force due to gravity on an object of mass m on or near
the surface of the earth can be expressed in vector form as F=(-m*g,0) where g=980
cm/sec^2 is the gravitaional constant and the coordinate axes are oriented so that the first
coordinate direction is parallel to the ground and the second coordinate direction points
upward. If the pendulum makes an angle of theta radians with a vertical line then the
component of the force which acts on the pendulum is the projection of the force vector in
the direction perpendicular to the rod. This component has length -m*g*sin(theta). The
other component of the force vector is parallel to the rod and since the rod is rigid it does
not effect the movement of the pendulum. The 100 gm weight on the end of the
pendulum moves along a circle. Let s (cm) denote the distance between the weight and
the bottom of the circle, measured along the arc of the circle. Then s=120*theta since the
radius of the circle equals the length of the rod. The units of force are
Newtons=gm*cm/sec^2.
Variables: theta = pendulum angle (radians)

s = distance from vertical (cm)
G = gravitational force acting in the s direction (Newtons)
D = frictional force (Newtons)
t = time (sec)
Assumptions: s = 120*theta
G = -100*980*sin(theta)
D = -0.05*(theta)'
F = G+D
F = 100*s''
Objective: Determine s(t) given theta(0)=Pi/4 and (theta)'(0)=0.
Step 2: We will model this problem as dynamical system, and simulate a solution using the
Euler method..
Step 3: Let x1=theta and x2=(theta)' in order to obtain a first order system of differential
equations. Then
F = 100*s''
G+D = 100*(120*theta)''
-100*980*sin(theta)-0.05*(theta)' = 120*100*(theta)''
-100*980*sin(x1)-0.05*x2 = 120*100*x2'
Putting this together with the fact that x2=x1' we get the dynamical system equations
dx/dt = F(x1,x2) where x = (x1, x2) and F=(f1, f2) with
f1(x1,x2) = x2
f2(x1,x2) = -980*sin(x1)/120-0.05*x2/(12000)
Our goal is to solve the dynamical system equations with initial conditions x1(0)=Pi/4 and
x2(0)=0.
Step 4: We use a spreadsheet implementation of the Euler method algorithm in figure
6.19 on p. 170 of the text. The following graph shows the results of the algorithm using
t(0)=0, x1(0)=0.785398163, x2(0)=0, N=100, and T=5. In this case the step size h=0.05.
The results are surprising. Notice that the oscillations of x=x1 actually get larger, rather
than smaller as we expect. This is due to numerical instability in the Euler method.
Decreasing the step size (increasing N) reduces the extend to which the oscillations
increase, but it is virtually impossible to make h small enough to get the oscillations to
decrease in size. There is an upper limit to how large we can make N for this spreadsheet.
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
x 0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
t
Next we tried a BASIC program implementation of the Euler method. Starting with the
same input values as before, we kept increasing N until we began to see some stability in
the resulting estimate of x1(5)and x2(5). We show the first and last output lines for some
of these runs. Since doubling N is supposed to decrease the error by about 1/2, we judge
that we have achieved 2 decimal place accuracy when the next doubling of N changes the
outputs by less than 0.005. This requires something on the order of N=20,000 or
h=0.00025. However, even with a step size this small, the oscillations continue to grow.
It seems impossible to successfully simulate this model using the Euler method. The effect
of the damping is too small. It is overwhelmed by the accumulated error which occurs in
the course of the simulation. This exercise highlights the need for better simulation
methods in general. A more sophisticated method for simulating dynamical systems is
presented in exercise 21 below.
LIST
10 REM EULER METHOD IN TWO VARIABLES
20 DEF FNF1 (X1, X2) = X2
30 DEF FNF2 (X1, X2) = -980 * SIN(X1) / 120 - .05 * X2 / (12000)
40 X1 = .7853982#: X2 = 0: T = 0
50 INPUT T1, N
60 PRINT T, X1, X2
70 H = (T1 - T) / N
80 FOR I = 1 TO N
90 S1 = FNF1(X1, X2)
100 S2 = FNF2(X1, X2)
110 X1 = X1 + H * S1
120 X2 = X2 + H * S2
130 T = T + H
140 PRINT T, X1, X2
150 NEXT I
160 END
RUN
? 5,5000
0 .7853982 0
4.99982 .3218918 -2.030906
RUN
? 5,10000
0 .7853982 0
5.000206 .314679 -2.017639
RUN
? 5,20000
0 .7853982 0
5.000159 .3111407 -2.010962
(b) We use the computer algebra system DERIVE to compute the eigenvalues of the
linear system dx/dt=Ax which approximates the behavior of the dynamical system in the
neighborhood of the origin. For values of k<SQRT(4704000000) there are two complex
conjugate eigenvalues with negative real part, and so the equilibrium is stable. Note also
that for any reasonable value of k the real part is extremely small in relation to the
complex part. For k=0.05 for example the real part is about 10^6 times smaller. This
means that the spirals tend to the origin extremely slowly. This is why the problem is so
hard to simulate.
f1:=X2
f2:=-980*SIN(X1)/120-K*X2/12000
A:=[[DIF(f1,X1),DIF(f1,X2)],[DIF(f2,X1),DIF(f2,X2)]]
[[0,1],[-49*COS(X1)/6,-K/12000]]
[X1:=0,X2:=0]
[[0,1],[-49/6,-K/12000]]
EIGENVALUES(A)
[w=(SQRT(K^2-4704000000)-K)/24000,w=-(SQRT(K^2-4704000000)+K)/24000]
K:=0.05
[w=-2.08333*10^(-6)+2.85773*#i,w=-2.08333*10^(-6)-2.85773*#i]
(c) For small oscillations where (x1,x2) stay close to the equilibrium (0,0) the behavior of
the pendulum is approximately that of the linear system. For k=0.05 the periodic part has
terms involving sin(bx) and cos(bx) where b=2.85773 and so the period is 2*Pi/b=2.20
seconds. Our simulation using the Euler method produces about the same period, so even
though we are not effective in determining the amplitude of the x1(t) wave, we seem to be
able to do a fairly good job of estimating the period. More generally we have
b=SQRT(k^2-4704000000)/24000 and since most reasonable values of k are negligable in
this formula, it seems that the period is extremely insensitive to the exact value of k.
(d) Since our attempt to simulate the model was unsuccessful, we must rely on the linear
approximation. It is easy to see that [1,lambda] is an eigenvector belonging to the
eigenvalue lambda. Then [1,lambda]*exp(lambda*t) is a complex solution. Taking real
and imaginary parts yields two linearly independent real solutions s1 and s2, and then the
general solution to the linear system is x=c1*s1+c2*s2. For a given initial angular velocity
V, the solution which satisfies x(0)=[Pi/6,V] is obtained by solving this vector equation for
c1,c2. Then we can set x(2*pi/b)=[pi/6,0] and solve for V. Using DERIVE we find a
solution of V=3.96637*10^(-13) cm/sec. Then if the linear approximation is reasonably
accurate, we need to impart an angular velocity of around 4*10^(-13) cm/sec every time
the pendulum swings back 30 degrees to the right. This is such a small fraction of the
typical values for x2 that it is naturally next to impossible to compute using Euler method
approximations. Different values of k give essentially the same answer, i.e. a very small
one. Real grandfather clocks work on a slightly different mechanism. They impart a much
larger angular velocity, and then when the pendulum returns, they absorb the extra kinetic
energy in to a spring, and use it to impart angular velocity for the next pendulum swing.
K:=0.05
[a:=-K/24000,b:=SQRT(-K^2+4704000000)/24000]
L:=a+#i*b
s1:=RE([-1,L]*EXP(L*t))
s2:=IM([-1,L]*EXP(L*t))
x:=c1*s1+c2*s2
t:=0
x-[pi/6,V]
[-pi/6-c1,-V-c1/480000+SQRT(1881599999999)*c2/480000]
[c1:=-pi/6,c2:=480000*SQRT(1881599999999)*V/1881599999999-
SQRT(1881599999999)*pi/11289599999994]
t:=2*pi/b
x-[pi/6,0]
[0,V+10000000000000/2521196346401*10^(-13)]
V=-3.96637*10^(-13)
20. (a,b) Substitute x1 = x2 = (a-1)/a to check that (a-1)*x1-a*x1^2=0 and x1-x2=0 at

this point. In (a) the eigenvalues of A=DF at x1=x2=(a-1)/a are -1 and 1-a so this
equilibrium is stable for a>1.
(c) It suffices to describe the behavior of x1(n) since x2(n)=x1(n-1). For a=1.5 there is an
equilibrium at x1=1/3 and for any nearby initial condition x1(0) we see x1(n) tending
monotonely to 1/3. For a=2.0 there is an equilibrium at 1/2 and for any nearby initial
condition x1(0) we see that x1(1) overshoots the equilibrium, but then x1(n) tends to 1/2
monotonely. For a=2.5 the equilibrium is at 3/5 and for any nearby initial condition x1(0)
we see that x1(n) tends to 3/5 but oscillates, jumping over the equilibrium every time step.
For a=3.0 the equilibrium is at 2/3. Now x1(n) tends to 2/3 but very slowly, and oscillates
as in the case a=2.5. For values of a just slightly larger than 3.0 the solutions actually tend
towards a 2-cycle, i.e. there are two numbers b and c such that x1(2n) tends to b and
x1(2n+1) tends to c. Neither b nor c equals the original equilibrium x1=(a-1)/a, which
becomes unstable. For a=3.5 the equilibrium is 5/7 but it is unstable. Nearby solutions
tend to a 4-cycle. For large n we have approximately that
(...,x1(n),x1(n+1),x1(n+2),x1(n+3),...) = (...,.87,.38,.83,.50,.87,.38,.83,.50,...)
For the case a=4 the equilibrium is 3/4 but it is unstable. Nearby solutions seem to jump
randomly around the entire interval [0,1]. This is chaos.
a=1.5 a=2.0
0.50 0.8
0.45 0.7
0.6
x 0.40 x
0.5
0.35
0.4
0.30 0.3
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
n n
a=2.5 a=3.0
0.9 0.9
0.8 0.8
0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6
x x
0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
n n
a=3.5 a=4.0
0.9 1.0
0.8 0.8
0.7
0.6
x 0.6 x
0.4
0.5
0.4 0.2
0.3 0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
n n
21. (a,b) The following BASIC program implements the algorithm in Figure 6.27 in the
text. In order to verify the code, we use it so solve the linear system (18) from p.136 in
chapter 5 of the text. The general solution is given in (19) on p.137. If c1=c2=1 then the
solution is x1=-exp(-3*t)-exp(-1*t) and x2=exp(-3*t)+3*exp(-1*t). The corresponding
initial condition is (x1,x2)=(-2,4). Setting t=1 we obtain x1=-0.41766651 and
x2=1.153425392. A simulation run with t(0)=0, x1(0)=-2, x2(0)=4, N=20, and T=1.0 (so
that the step size h=0.05) yields x1(1)=-0.4176672 and x2(1)=1.153426.
10 REM RUNGE-KUTTA METHOD IN TWO VARIABLES

20 DEF FNF1(X1,X2)=-4*X1-X2
30 DEF FNF2(X1,X2)=3*X1
40 T=0:X1=-2:X2=4
50 INPUT T1,N
60 H=(T1-T)/N
70 PRINT T,X1,X2
80 FOR I=1 TO N
90 R1=FNF1(X1,X2)
100 S1=FNF2(X1,X2)
110 R2=FNF1(X1+H*R1/2,X2+H*S1/2)
120 S2=FNF2(X1+H*R1/2,X2+H*S1/2)
130 R3=FNF1(X1+H*R2/2,X2+H*S2/2)
140 S3=FNF2(X1+H*R2/2,X2+H*S2/2)
150 R4=FNF1(X1+H*R3,X2+H*S3)
160 S4=FNF2(X1+H*R3,X2+H*S3)
170 X1=X1+(H/6)*(R1+2*R2+2*R3+R4)
180 X2=X2+(H/6)*(S1+2*S2+2*S3+S4)
190 T=T+H
200 PRINT T,X1,X2
210 NEXT I
220 END
RUN
? 1.0,20
0 -2 4
.05 -1.811938 3.714397
.1 -1.645657 3.455332
.15 -1.498338 3.219754
.2 -1.367544 3.005006
.25 -1.251169 2.808771
.3 -1.14739 2.629026
.35 -1.054628 2.464004
.4 -.971516 2.312156
.45 -.8968701 2.172127
.5000001 -.8296624 2.042724
.5500001 -.7690012 1.922901
.6000001 -.714112 1.811735
.6500001 -.6643212 1.708413
.7000001 -.619043 1.612214
.7500001 -.577767 1.5225
.8000001 -.540048 1.438706
.8500001 -.5054976 1.360328
.9000002 -.4737761 1.286916
.9500002 -.4445862 1.218068
1 -.4176672 1.153426
(c) In order to verify the results in Figure 6.20 we change a few lines of code and run the
simulation again. A simulation run with t(0)=0, x1(0)=-1.0, x2(0)=-1.5, N=20, and T=10
(so that the step size h=0.5) yields essentially the same results as in the original graph.
The solution curve moves counterclockwise and spirals inward. The period of rotation is
about 7 seconds.
10 REM RUNGE-KUTTA METHOD IN TWO VARIABLES
20 DEF FNF1(X1,X2)=X1-X1^3-X2
30 DEF FNF2(X1,X2)=X1
40 T=0:X1=-1.0:X2=-1.5
RUN
? 10,20
0 -1 -1.5
.5 -.3065966 -1.826992
1 .6592568 -1.750189
1.5 1.255589 -1.221036
2 1.221642 -.5682529
2.5 1.114227 2.456876E-02
3 .9342316 .5399055
3.5 .6871492 .9487015
4 .3219745 1.207606
4.5 -.2785767 1.230113
5 -.973536 .9049047
5.5 -1.136374 .3491284
6 -1.044055 -.2047279
6.5 -.8553326 -.6831149
7 -.5824865 -1.046789
7.5 -.1582817 -1.24048
8 .5240515 -1.158244
8.5 1.087475 -.7327482
9 1.121516 -.1594716
9.5 .9897423 .3741064
10 .7757097 .8188627
In order to verify the results in Figure 6.21 we change one line of code and run the
simulation again. A simulation run with t(0)=0, x1(0)=0.1, x2(0)=0.3, N=20, and T=10
(so that the step size h=0.5) yields essentially the same results as in the original graph.
The solution curve moves counterclockwise and spirals outward. The period of rotation is
about 7 seconds.
40 T=0:X1=0.1:X2=0.3
RUN
? 10,20
0 .1 .3
.5 -3.921125E-02 .3184298
1 -.2535842 .2478362
1.5 -.4942596 5.974719E-02
2 -.6452057 -.2310165
2.5 -.6346642 -.5575789
3 -.472134 -.8402658
3.5 -.1455785 -1.002553
4 .4030529 -.946906
4.5 .9509516 -.5954812
5 1.062923 -7.295962E-02
5.5 .9489138 .4365745
6 .7342777 .861191
6.5 .4093571 1.152864
7 -.1238059 1.235363
7.5 -.846743 .9891418
8 -1.133733 .4647446
8.5 -1.071987 -9.823477E-02
9 -.8990487 -.594875
9.5 -.6460523 -.9849772
10 -.2617729 -1.219247
22. (a) We use a spreadsheet implementation of the Euler method with time step h = 1.
Selected lines are shown. The Blue whale population x1 increases gradually for the first
50 years, but does not attain its equilibrium level.
t x1 x2 h alpha
0 5000 70000 1 1E-08
1 5238 74617
2 5487 79468
3 5747 84558
5 6302 95458
10 7914 126796
20 12308 202478
30 18685 278322
40 27515 334722
50 39061 367632
(b) The following graphs show the results of repeated simulations where we vary the step
size h years. For h = 1, 5, 10, 20 the only difference is that the blue whale population
growth is projected further into the future. For h = 30 the equilibrium at x1=138,207
becomes unstable and there appears a discrete limit cycle of period two. The solution
eventually settles down to a pattern of x1 = 145652, 131556, 145652, 131556,... For h =
35 the behavior is chaotic. The second graph for h = 35 zooms in to show additional
detail. When h = 40 (graph not shown) the solution quickly diverges to infinity.
160000
h=5 160000
h = 10
120000 120000
80000 80000
40000 40000
0 0
0 50 100 150 200 250 0 100 200 300 400 500
160000
h = 20 160000
h = 30
120000 120000
80000 80000
40000 40000
0 0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
160000
h = 35 160000
h = 35
120000 150000
80000 140000
40000 130000
0 120000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000
(c) For h = 1, 5, 10, 20, and 40 there are no significant differences between the cases
alpha = 10^(-7), 10^(-8), 10^(-9). For h = 30 the there is always a two cycle, which gets
smaller as alpha decreases. For h = 35 there is always chaos, but the band in which the
solution is confined gets narrower as alpha gets smaller. Our general conclusions are not
sensitive to the parameter alpha.
(d) Starting at x1 = 150,000 and x2 = 400,000 the behavior is essentially the same as in
part (b). Our general conclusions are not at all sensitive to the choice of initial conditions.
23. (a) We use a spreadsheet implementation of the Euler method with a time step of h =
35 years to obtain the following results. Some lines are deleted. After N = 50 time steps
(T = 1750 years) starting with x1(0) = 5000 there are x1(T) = 142,681 Blue whales.
t x1 x2 h alpha
0 5000 70000 35 1E-08
35 13336 231578
70 33518 503517
350 125040 138917
700 156042 339389
1400 130076 280500
1750 142681 339463
(b) For x1(0) = 5050 we obtain x1(T) = 122,134 which is 14.4% smaller. Since x1(0) is
1% larger we obtain a sensitivity of -14.4 in this case.
(c) We tabulate results for the different initial conditions. The sensitivity gets much larger
as the initial condition gets closer to x1(0) = 5000.
old new % change Sensitivity

x1(0) 5000 5005 0.1
x1(T) 142681 152495 6.88 68.78
x1(0) 5000 5000.5 0.01
x1(T) 142681 138060 -3.24 -323.86
x1(0) 5000 5000.05 0.001
x1(T) 142681 124475 -12.76 -12760.42
x1(0) 5000 5000.005 0.0001
x1(T) 142681 140541 -1.50 -15000.08
c) The system is extremely sensitive to initial conditions. Since it is impossible to measure
the state of the system exactly, we cannot predict the future.
24. (a) For this problem we will use MAPLE to perform the necessary calculations. The equilibrium
point is x1=138,207 and x2 = 393,090. Since the eigenvalues are both negative, this is a stable
equilibrium for the continuous time model.
> restart:f1:=(5/100)*x1*(1-x1/150000)-alpha*x1*x2;
 11 
x1  1 −
f1 := x1  − α x1 x2
20  150000 
> f2:=(8/100)*x2*(1-x2/400000)-alpha*x1*x2;
2  1 
f2 := x2  1 − x2  − α x1 x2
25  400000 
> alpha:=10^(-8):
f11:=diff(f1,x1):f12:=diff(f1,x2):
f21:=diff(f2,x1):f22:=diff(f2,x2):
> solve({f1/x1=0,f2/x2=0},{x1,x2});assign(%);
>
785000000 276000000
{ x2 = , x1 = }
1997 1997
> A:=array([[f11,f12],[f21,f22]]);
 -92 -69 
 
 1997 49925
A := 
 -157 -157 
 
39940 1997 
> with(linalg):evalf(eigenvals(A));
Warning, the protected names norm and trace have been redefined and unprotected
-.04590303902, -.07878399152
(b) The discrete time system has x(n+1)=x(n)+F(x(n))*h = G(x(n)) so G(x)=x+hF(x) is the iteration
function. The iteration function is as follows.
> x1:='x1':x2:='x2':g1:=x1+h*f1;g2:=x2+h*f2;
1  1  1 
g1 := x1 + h  x1  1 − x1  − x1 x2 
 20  150000  100000000 
2  1  1 
g2 := x2 + h  x2  1 − x2  − x1 x2 
 25  400000  100000000 
(c) We compute the matrix of partial derivatives and the associated eigenvalues.
> g11:=diff(g1,x1):g12:=diff(g1,x2):
g21:=diff(g2,x1):g22:=diff(g2,x2):
> solve({f1/x1=0,f2/x2=0},{x1,x2}):assign(%):
A:=array([[g11,g12],[g21,g22]]);
>
 92 69 
1 − h − h 
 1997 49925 

A := 
 157 157 
− h 1− h
 39940 1997 
> s:=eigenvals(A);
249 1 249 1
s := 1 − h+ 2694790 h, 1 − h− 2694790 h
3994 99850 3994 99850
(d) Both eigenvalues are real and remain between +1 and -1 for 0 < h < 25.38 after which one
eigenvalue drops below -1. At this point the discrete time dynamical system becomes unstable. In the
text we found stability for h = 24 and instability for h = 27.
> plot({s[1],s[2]},h=0..30,xtickmarks=4);
> fsolve(s[2]=-1.0,h);
25.38586788
25. (a) We used a spreadsheet implementation of the Euler method to produce this graph.
(b) the graph below shows the four point limit cycle when the step size is h = 32 years.
(c) the remaining graphs show limit sets for h=33,...,37 and the emerging fractal pattern
(d) additional simulations with the initial condition x1(0)=150,000 and x2(0)=400,000 yield essentially the
same limit sets, indicating no dependence on initial condition.
(e) for alpha=3*10^(-8) the emergence of a fractal limit set is similar but the shape of the set is slightly
different.
h=32 h=33
600000 600000
500000 500000
400000 400000
Fin whales (x2)
Fin whales (x2)

300000 300000
200000 200000
100000 100000
0 0
125000 130000 135000 140000 145000 150000 155000 125000 130000 135000 140000 145000 150000 155000
Blue whales (x1) Blue whales (x1)
h=34 h=35
600000 600000
500000 500000
400000 400000
Fin whales (x2)
Fin whales (x2)
300000 300000
200000 200000
100000 100000
0 0
120000 125000 130000 135000 140000 145000 150000 155000 160000 120000 125000 130000 135000 140000 145000 150000 155000 160000
h=36 h=37
600000 600000
500000 500000
400000 400000
Fin whales (x2)
Fin whales (x2)
300000 300000
200000 200000
100000 100000
0 0
110000 120000 130000 140000 150000 160000 170000 110000 120000 130000 140000 150000 160000 170000
26. (a) We used a spreadsheet implementation of the Euler method
(b) The graph shown below left was produced using N=500 and T=5 so that h=0.01 is the step size. Using
a smaller step size h yields essentially the same graph.
12 10
9
10
8
8
7
6 6
5
4
4
2
3
0 2
0 2 4 6 8 2 4 6
(c) The graph shown above right uses the same N,T as in (b) but starts at initial condition (x1,x2,x3) =
(7,1,2). As before the solution approaches the equilibrium at (4.32,4.32,7).
(d) The graph on the left below shows the case r=18 and uses h=.0025 (N=2000,T=5) with initial condition
(1,1,1). The solution curve loops around the equilibrium point E+ but then is attracted to the E- equilibrium
point, where it slowly spirals inward. Larger step sizes h yield very different results which do not reflect
the true behavior of the continuous time model. The graph on the right below shows the case h=28 and
uses h=.009 (N=2000,T=18) with initial condition (1,1,1). Smaller step sizes h yield similar results. The
solution settles into a pattern of looping about both unstable equilibrium points E+ and E- and remains
bounded. The limit set here is a strange attractor.
35 60
30 50
25
40
20
30
15
20
10
5 10
0 0
-20 -10 0 10 20 -20 0 20
27. (a) We use a spreadsheet implementation of the Euler method.
(b) For h=.01,.015 the solution curve spirals outward, more rapidly for larger h. For h=.02, .025, .03 the
solution curve resembles the strange attractor shown in Figure 6.37 of the text.
h=0.01 h=0.015
6.82 7.1
6.8 7
6.78 6.9
6.76
6.8
6.74
6.7
6.72
6.7 6.6
6.68 6.5
6.66 6.4
6.65 6.7 6.75 6.8 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7
h=0.02 h=0.025
10 20
15
8 10
5
6 0
4 -5
-10
2 -15
-20
0 -25
4 6 8 10 -20 -10 0 10 20
h=0.03
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-20 -10 0 10 20
(c) The equilibrium E+=(p,p,23) where p=7.83156008298. A simulation beginning at this initial condition
should show that the state variables do not change over time.
(d) A step size of h=0.001 or smaller is necessary to prevent the simulated solution from spiraling outward.
The solution should spiral inward toward E+.
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burden to you.”—Tenderness was next tried, my ruin involved his;
the fate of a child who though yet unborn, was urged with many
tears; Miss Flint’s generosity to me, her attachment to him were not
omitted. I was conquered. “Do with me what you will,” said I
mournfully, “only remember, Philip, who it was, that spread the toils
with which my soul is encompassed; I cannot live to see you
miserable.” He employed much sophistry to convince me that I was
engaged in the performance of a meritorious work, inasmuch as it
secured innocence from shame, and saved the reputation of Mr.
Flint’s daughter: a woman who had respected my secret, and whose
gratitude would bind her to me for life.
CHAP. III.
I will pass over the means of deceit and imposition now employed. I
became a nominal mother to Philip Flint, and the measures which
had been adopted by removing me to London, in order for my
confinement, appeared to have secured Miss Flint’s reputation. Thus
betrayed by others, I had some palliations to offer to my upbraiding
conscience. The innocent being I had adopted as my own, pleaded
still more powerfully. I loved him with a parent’s love, and I
sheltered him from unjust reproach and scorn. In this temper of
mind I became acquainted with Sir Murdoch Maclairn. Alas! in the
society of truth and honour I was a dissembler! How often have I
forgotten, whilst listening to his tale of woe, in which all was
faithfulness, that I was a deceiver! and whilst my heart and tongue
spoke his language, that my life had been for months a falsehood, my
affections now betrayed me: I loved, and I rashly hazarded the peace
and the honour of the man for whom I would have died. I became his
wife, and to his noble heart do I appeal: he has found me his faithful
wife. May I not say yet more? If to have emulated Sir Murdoch
Maclairn in his virtues; if to have loved him supremely; if to have
known no joy in which he has not shared; if to have shared with
courage his sorrows which were aggravated to me; by the bitter
conviction that I alone deserved to be wretched; if to have thus acted
is to be a wife; then will Sir Murdoch Maclairn pronounce me his
faithful, though erring wife. Witness for me, my beloved son. To my
Malcolm do I appeal; to my support, my only hope in this world! you
have seen your mother’s conflicts; you have shared in her sorrows.
Witness for me that I have lived for no other purpose, but to soothe,
to watch, to sustain the father whom you love and venerate. One
incident which occurred in your early life must be mentioned here.
You are no stranger, my son, to the difficulties we had to surmount,
in consequence of your father’s resolution to leave the Hall, and to
reside in France. I have frequently lamented before you this period of
my life. We had, however, so far conquered the opposition to our
removal; the time was fixed for our journey, and even our trunks
were preparing. Miss Flint saw these preparations with unfeigned
grief; for let me be just, she knew me, and she loved me. I left your
dear father busily engaged in examining some papers, contained in a
cabinet which had been recently sent him from Scotland, and with
my work bag, sought the dejected Lucretia. She was alone, in the bow
parlour, and weeping; I was employed in consoling her by those
arguments which had been a thousand times repeated, when Philip,
your uncle, entered, and sullenly took up a book without noticing me.
In a few minutes after, your father entered the room, and with a
placid air said, “I have brought you something to see, and admire;”
and placing a small ebony box richly inlaid with silver on the table
before us, he succeeded in exciting our curiosity. “The casket is
nothing to its contents,” said he, smiling at our admiration of the
box, and taking from it a shagreen picture-case which he opened.
“What say you to this portrait?” said he shewing us a pretty large
miniature of a gentleman in a Spanish habit; “did you ever see a
more manly, gracious countenance?” We examined it, and to the
praise due to the artist, and the noble lineaments he had preserved,
was added our admiration of the rich diamonds which encircled it.
“It ought to have a companion,” observed your father, taking up
another shagreen case, similar to the one before us; but it might have
been as well if the picture of the lady had never reached my hand; for
Harriet may be jealous of its superlative beauty. He added, that the
story of the lovers was long and disastrous; and might be the ground
work of a tragedy not unlike in many particulars to “the Fatal
Marriage.” “I remember,” continued he, “that when my father many
years since shewed me the two pictures, he briefly mentioned some
circumstances, which touched me to the soul. He was the friend
intrusted with these portraits, and with the care of seeking out an
infant son, who had been conveyed from Madrid when no more than
three days old; and who had unaccountably eluded all the enquiries
which my father had, at that time, been able to make. My absence
from Scotland, and my father’s death with other events,” he sighed
—“obliterated from my memory this box and the particulars I have
mentioned. About a month since, it was sent me, having been
deposited by my father previously to his death in the hands of a
minister of the Kirk of Scotland, He on his death-bed sent it, to me,
with many injunctions to be careful of it. Amongst several letters
written in Spanish, from which I can only discover the writers to be
of high rank, I found also a deposition made by my father, and
addressed to myself. He informs me, that having traced, as he
believes, the invaluable child of his noble friends, he had sent his
mother’s picture to the faithful woman who had been the only person
privy to his birth, and who passed for his mother. This I was
instructed to do, added my father; and the test of the boy’s identity,
rested on the woman’s returning the picture, with the name of her
lady annexed to it. She received it from faithful hands; for I was
already on that bed of death, from which I am permitted to write
this. She said she should write to me from London, having in her
turn instructions to follow; and that with the witnesses of her
integrity she should present herself before me with her precious
charge, and with transports of joy make over to my care a youth
worthy of the Duke and Dutchess; she signed herself S. Duncan.
Philip advanced to the table; he examined the picture attentively.”
“Does your romance finish here?” asked he, “So it appears,” replied
my husband, “otherwise that picture, and the letters would have been
reclaimed.” “I should think no one will at present be found to claim
them,” observed Mr. Flamall. “I fear so also,” answered Sir Murdoch;
“but when I am on the continent, I shall lose no opportunity of giving
up my important trust to the family.” “I would be d—d,” cried my
brother laughing, “if I went a league out of my road on such an
errand!” “Perhaps not,” answered my husband coldly; “you may not
think it necessary.” He folded up the portrait, and, replacing it,
withdrew. “What a pity it is,” cried Flamall, as he followed him with
his eye, “that Maclairn is not a Spanish Grandee! His gravity would
have suited admirably with their dignity; and his honour with their
pride; some people, and honest ones too, would think the diamonds
at least a lawful prize in this case; and without a doubt, they have
long been considered as lost. They would pay for your journey,
Harriet, or usefully decorate the poor Baronet’s lady.” I made no
answer, for I was nearly fainting with emotion and surprise; but
finding Miss Flint well disposed to reply for me, I left the room, and
retreated from the scene of altercation which ensued, and which was
but too familiar to my ears. Your father’s illness succeeded to this
occurrence, my dear Malcolm. I will hasten to inform you, and him of
the reasons which led me to give this incident a place in my
narrative.
It is now something more than five years since, that I was called
upon to feel the full weight of the penalty affixed by eternal justice, to
the violation of truth and rectitude of conduct. In the duties before
me, the remembrance of the unfortunate Duncan had been softened
down into the placid hope of his being at peace. Miss Flint had
apparently forgotten that such a being had ever existed. A more
immediate concern engaged her mind, and from her excessive
fondness of her son, grew up a dislike to you, and a jealousy of your
mother, which harassed me and rendered her unhappy. Several
circumstances, which I need not recall to your memory, proved to
her, that the slave of Mr. Flamall, and her own sheltered dependent,
was not without the animal instinct of defending her offspring; and
even in these contests, the name of Duncan never escaped her lips.
This generosity was not lost upon me, who had to sustain the cruel
and barbarous hints, not unfrequently dropped by my brother, in
regard to a subject, too painful to be enlarged upon; and which
produced no other effect, than that of making me, more and more,
the inmate of your father’s apartment.
I had, as usual, seen my beloved patient quietly tasting that repose
which his agitated mind required; and I left him, to take my
accustomed walk in the avenue. A radiant moon, with the soft
evening breeze, which had succeeded to a sultry day, cheered me,
and I sauntered until you met me on your return from your friends at
the farm. We enjoyed the scene around us; and, for some time,
conversed at our ease, on the seat round the oak, but hearing the
turret clock chiming the three quarters after ten, I rose to return to
the house; when suddenly, a wretched looking man, sprang from the
covert near us, and ran with swiftness down the avenue. You
instantly dissipated my alarm, by telling me it was a sick sailor,
whom you had met and relieved that afternoon, on your way to Mr.
Wilson’s. He had, it appeared, been shipwrecked, and was begging
his way to his friends in London. You finished your little story, by
adding, that you supposed he had strolled into the avenue, and had
fallen asleep. We parted for the night, and I thought no more of the
mendicant sailor. The following evening I again repaired to the
avenue, it was about eight o’clock, and again I took my seat at the
oak. Again, did I see this miserable object slowly advancing towards
me; his ghastly countenance excited my compassion, not my fears,
and I rose to meet him, with some silver in my hand. He stopped,
leaning himself against a tree; and wiping his face, as though faint
with hunger, gazed upon me. “Do not advance,” cried I, quickening
my pace, “honest friend I am coming to give you a trifle.” He
groaned, dropped a sealed packet, and darted from me with speed.
Terrors too powerful for language assailed me! I gasped for breath,
and, for some minutes, stood motionless, gazing at the fleet and
dreadful spectre; for such he seemed. At the stile he turned; and
from its elevation still saw me, he struck his breast and head; then
vanished. A sudden conviction, shot through my confounded senses;
I seized the parcel; it was addressed to Lady Maclairn, and in the well
remembered characters of Charles Duncan. I placed it in my bosom;
and was, I believe, indebted to the air for the preservation of life; for
I did not faint, although unconscious of time. Your cheerful voice,
Malcolm, as you approached me singing, roused me, and I attempted
to rise; but again I sunk on the seat I had quitted, and burst into
tears. You saw my emotion, my dear son, and in reply to your
enquiries I made the usual answer, for the dejection of my spirits,
adding, that I had again seen the vagabond in the avenue, at a
distance, and not chusing to advance, had kept near the house, not
altogether without fear. “I met him,” returned you, “and told him
that he was trespassing, and that he must not be seen in the avenue.
He said, he hoped he should be many miles from it in twenty-four
hours, meaning to pursue his route before sun-rise the next morning.
He begged my pardon; he had been induced to seek the relief his
miseries needed, but finding the lady was alarmed had retreated. I
commended him for his attention, and rewarded him with some
silver.” “He has done me no harm,” replied I, “for I was not much
disposed to ramble, feeling languid before I left the house.” I was no
sooner arrived there, than I retired to my room; and with agonies,
which it is beyond my power to describe, I read as follows,
“To Lady Maclairn.”

“The poor, the outraged, the vilified Charles Duncan lives to
proclaim his wrongs! to pour forth his sorrows before the only being
on earth who will pity him! He lives to redeem his honour from the
disgrace and eternal infamy, of having deserted the woman, whom in
the presence of his Maker, he vowed to cherish and protect. He lives
to take vengeance on his oppressors! He lives to behold thee once
more! and then death will close his account here! The grave will be
his bed of repose! Heaven will, in its own time, explain to him,
wherefore he existed; and to what purpose he has suffered!!!
“I am composed, my Harriet. I have seen thee, I have heard thy

gentle voice! listened, in breathless silence, to the pure effusions of
thy spotless mind; heard my Harriet, my wife, my all that Heaven
has given me! speak to her son, praise his filial duty to his father;
heard that that parent had been smitten, stricken by the hand of
adversity! Heard her call him, “her dear Maclairn,” her helpless, her
unfortunate husband! Was this the language to heal my broken
spirit? No: but it was that which has fettered every tumultuous
passion of my soul! I would not for worlds speak to you, Harriet; I
would not for worlds approach you! No: I would refuse your offered
love! What! brand with infamy thy spotless name! Sink the
honourable wife, the virtuous mother to be the sharer of my
wretched condition! The companion of a reputed robber, a worthless
vagabond; of a being who can claim no affinity but to the earth he
treads! No; Harriet, thy Duncan is not yet so poor, so abject!
Scorned, and sunk as he may be in your eyes, he yet proudly
maintains his claims to the recompense of long suffering and
patience. This is not Duncan’s theatre of glory! But he has before him
an inheritance, and a home; and he has only to press forward to
attain it.”
“The wife of Sir Murdoch Maclairn; the mother of his children; the
prop and comfort of his life is in my eyes, encompassed by an host of
angels. Shall the wretched Duncan invade the blessings of another?
No, Harriet. He has beheld you for the last time. Live and die a
suitable inhabitant for a better world! Live to be reverenced by your
children’s children! Live to be called the Matron’s pride, and your
sex’s boast. Only think of me, as a man who was once thy love; as one
incapable of forgetting you. Think of me as one, who would sooner
have been what he has been cruelly believed to be, than have basely
left thee to the tortures of doubt and suspense, and abandoned to an
insulting world. Think of me only as an unfortunate man, as one
whom you may pity, as one who will soon be removed: as one whose
heart——
“Again I take up my pen. Again the tumult of my senses is calmed.
I can now weep. I can thank God that your brother is absent. I can
pray, my Harriet! I can see the God of mercy allaying the storm, and
smoothing my passage to himself. Farewell: I have only to see, that
you are in possession of my justification; and then shall seas again
separate us, whilst my soul still fondly clings to thee. Farewell!
Farewell!
“Charles Duncan.”
“You have not forgotten the hour of our separation, Harriet! You
cannot have obliterated from your memory my agonies, on trusting
to the winds and waves my wife, my hopes, my all! You cannot have
forgotten my vows of love, of fidelity, of truth. What must have been
the artifices, the machinations employed to beguile you of your
confidence in Charles Duncan! But have I not before me an evidence
of that subtle mischief which man, when lost to all that is manly, can
effect? Was thy innocence a match for villany? Thy weakness an
armour against cruelty? What have not been the means employed to
ruin thee as well as myself! Oh Being of infinite justice! to thee do I
look up for a solution of all my doubts! Let me still hold fast my only
consolation; my Harriet, my wife stands blameless in thy sight, and
in my bosom. She is still cherished as the faithful, but deluded,
perhaps fatally deluded, victim of baseness and cruelty.
“Again farewell!”
This letter had evidently been written after my alarm in the avenue
by the wretched writer’s sudden disappearance. His narrative was
detached from it, and bore several dates, as will appear; may heaven
in its mercy lend a portion of its never-failing compassion to those to
whom the miserable Harriet now consigns it! May they pause from
time to time, and contemplate the noble ruin thus exhibited to their
view! For Maclairn’s justice will acknowledge it to be such; and he
will applaud the woman, who, although shrinking from the
consciousness of guilt, dares to avow her veneration, and love for
virtue. She must indeed be sunk, who could erase from her memory a
man like Charles Duncan; and Maclairn will understand and fret,
that the heart would be unworthy of his, which should not have room
for suffering and oppressed innocence, and a memory faithful in its
tribute of sorrow and sympathy, gratitude and admiration, for a man,
who not only loved her, but also her fame, better than himself. Yes:
he will acknowledge that his Harriet, even in these tears, which she
gives to suffering and departed worth—but let me hasten to the
conclusion of a task which duty prescribes, before my sinking spirits
faint.
CHAP. IV.
Charles Duncan’s Narrative.

London.
I will be calm. Is it fit for a wretch like me to flinch at the sight of

inanimate objects? To tremble, and faint in a street, because once
trodden by my feet, when youth and health glowed in my cheek, and
hope in my bosom? Is it for me, familiar with misery, to droop at the
view of that abode in which I once for a moment grasped the fleeting
form of happiness, gazed on her image, and fixed her lineaments on
my heart, and then I saw her vanish? No: Duncan ought to have a
soul braced, an arm nerved for the work before him. His Maker has
not forgotten the work of his hand. He will triumph, even in this
world! Oh memory, unfold thy tablets! Show to my injured wife the
man she loved, the man she has wept as worthless!——and then!!—
Is it needful for me to recall to my Harriet’s recollection, our
mutual doubts of Flamall’s honour and principles; as these appeared
in his conduct to me, they were grounded on his evading every
enquiry I made relative to the deceased Mrs. Duncan’s effects and
papers. But I had still more convincing proofs of his real character
than I discovered to his sister. I saw, that in his professional line, he
had few clients of respectability, and that he was a rascal.
Determined on my conduct as soon as I could legally call on him to
account for his, I simply declared to you my purpose of quitting his
house the day I should come of age; and you concurred in this plan.
Is it necessary to remind you of those tender fears and
apprehensions which resulted from our union! Oh no! you cannot
have forgotten them, nor my arguments for your immediately leaving
a house, in which you were subjected to perpetual alarms. You will
also recollect, that we both believed our liberality to the Keiths had
bound them to our interest; particularly Mrs. Keith, who had
gratefully acknowledged my gift of Mrs. Duncan’s apparel, and the
little advantages which her slender purse derived from her being my
laundress.
Passing near her house one morning, just before you left London
with your friends, the Hatchways, a dray-man so completely
bespattered me, that, in order to shun the laughter of the diverted
witnesses of this mischance, I took refuge at Mrs. Keith’s: knowing
that I could there change my linen, &c. During her kind offices about
me, I observed, that she had been weeping; and, whilst waiting for
my coat to dry, her dejection led me to ask her what had disturbed
her. “Only the old story,” answered she, weeping anew, “I am weary
of my life; my husband was never good; but of late he is a brute, and
beats me, because I cannot go to market without money. God help
me, I am too honest for Patrick!” “He ought to husband his money
better,” replied I, “he is in constant employment with Mr. Flamall I
find, and he is a good copier.” “He will never find that any thing he
gains from that quarter will thrive,” answered she, colouring with
resentment; “the good old proverb is against him. What is got by the
devil’s means will go as it came.” “You ought not to blame Mr.
Flamall,” observed I, prolonging my toilet, “that he cannot teach your
husband to take care of the money he earns: Flamall is not a
spendthrift.” “He is too cunning for you to understand,” replied she,
nodding her head significantly, “but he will soon show the cloven
foot; what is to become of you, when your wife wants a cradle for her
poor babe? Patrick swears that I shall not take her in: the Lord help
you both; there will be such doings, and no Mrs. Duncan to stand by
you with her purse!” “I defy Mr. Flamall,” answered I, “and will soon
let him know that I can protect my wife; in less than four months I
shall be master of my dear mother’s little provision, and with that,
and industry, my Harriet shall have a cradle for our infant.” She
shook her head despondingly, “Poor soul!” said she; “it is perhaps
happy for her that she is removed, she loved you better than many
real mothers do their children; it would have grieved her to see you
set fast so young.” “How came you to know this secret?” asked I,
without betraying my emotions. “Because I heard Mrs. Duncan say,
that she was not your mother,” answered she, “when she gave her
dying instructions to your honest guardian with the pocket book for
you, in case you outlived her: besides this, I could say more if I
pleased; but I do not wish to bring Patrick to the gallows, he will find
the road without my help! see his tender marks,” added she,
weeping, and uncovering her bosom. It was bruised. My compassion
soothed her; but she became more guarded; and only confessed that
I had not been well used, adding, “I have said enough to you, and
should my husband know it, he would murder me. But the time may
come, when you will be able to take care of me. I have not forgotten
the black pocket book, nor the letters on it, studded with silver, nor
what is more, the bank notes it contained. I know that ten hundred
make a thousand, as well as the lawyer. Betty Keith is neither deaf
nor blind.” In vain did I urge her to be more explicit. “So I will, when
I am upon oath,” answered she; “but you can do nothing at present,
and you must be gone. My husband may return, and he will suspect I
have been prating, as he calls it, when I do but turn the tongue in my
head.” I took the hint, and giving her a guinea, left the room. You
were on the eve of your little voyage, ill and dejected, and I forbore to
add to your inquietude. Your departure followed, and Duncan’s fate
advanced to the crisis which terminated his hopes and prospects in
this world. A few days passed. My bosom was relieved of its fears for
your safety; you wrote in spirits; and you concurred in your second
letter, in my plan of removing you from Y——th to the north; and
from thence declaring your marriage to your brother. At this juncture
I received an anonymous letter; it was dated from Helvoetsluys, the
language English, with foreign idioms. The writer signified that he
was deputed by my parents to inform me, that the mystery in which
my birth had been involved was removed; but for many cogent
reasons, which should be explained, he was commissioned to meet
me at Harwich; that he should perhaps be there as soon as his letter;
but at all hazards in a few days, and should wait my arrival at the
Ship inn. “Be only anxious,” added he, “to be punctual to this
rendezvous. Measures for your future destination in the world will
result from this interview. Be on the reserve with those about you,
and above all, trust not the man who calls himself your guardian; he
has an eye over him which he little suspects, and he will have an
account to settle, not with the obscure and friendless Charles
Duncan, but with an arm of power, which shall crush him, as the
spoiler of the widow and the orphan.”
You will imagine that my whole soul was fixed on accomplishing
the journey to Harwich. It so entirely engaged my thoughts, that I
spoke of my intention to Simons, saying I should ask Mr. Flamall for
a week or ten days holiday, in order to meet a friend at Harwich. “He
will refuse you,” replied he, “for he wants you in the office to supply
his own absence. He can find leisure for his own jaunts, but he thinks
not of us.” “I will not be refused,” replied I eagerly, “then do as I do
in such cases,” said he; “Send your trunk off before you, and take a
French leave when you can, in order to bring home your
portmanteau: there will be no end of his objections!”
I availed myself of Simons’s counsel, and sent a small portmanteau
to the Harwich coach that evening. On the following morning I civilly
requested your brother to spare me ten days or a fortnight,
explaining to him my wishes in part, by saying, that I expected to
meet a friend at Harwich, and we should probably make a little
excursion together. Good God, how delightful were my prospects! for
these were bounded by seeing you and announcing my parents to
you! Some questions, for which I was prepared, followed: reluctance
gradually yielded. “He thought it but an idle expence; but I had been
frugal, and therefore he should not refuse me;” and, opening his
desk, he paid me my quarterly stipend of twenty guineas, which had
been due nearly a month. He soon after told Simons, that he was
going with a party of friends to Windsor, and should not return for a
day or two; then carelessly asking me, when and how I intended to
journey, he left us; shaking me by the hand, and with a Judas’s smile,
he bade me “remember that my purse had not the virtue of
Fortunatus’s.” Simons boasted much of a horse which a friend of his
let out; and so strongly pointed out to me the advantages of
travelling in this mode, that I went with him to the livery stable, in
order to see the animal thus recommended. It had been a fine one;
but had been ridden down, and I should have given up my project of
riding on horseback but for his persuasions. He was certain the beast
would travel well with me, and return better than when he set out;
the terms were easy, and to please Simons, I consented to please his
friend, the proprietor of the horse. Amongst the various arguments
he used was one, which had probably turned the scale. I could run
down to Rumford that night; the horse had been at the manger the
whole day, and the remainder of the road to Harwich was light work.
This project was adopted; but a heavy rain stopped me for some
hours; and it was nine o’clock in the evening when I mounted and
parted with my officious friend at the livery stable. The clouds were
dispersed, and the moon, though not in her zenith, favouring me, I
proceeded on gently. The horse was stiff with fatigue, and I found
that Simons had “taken me in,” to use his own quaint language, I was
within half a mile of Woodford, a village on the Epping road, when I
was accosted by name, by a man whom I recollected having seen
once or twice in your brother’s office. He checked the bridle, and
civility obliged me to stop. Enquiries after Mr. Flamall’s health, were
followed by wondering to meet me so late on such a road. “I may
wonder in my turn,” answered I, “for you have more to apprehend
from this damp evening than I have. But you will excuse me, I am
hastening to Stretham, still some miles from hence.” I spurred my
horse and bowing, wished him a good night. He shouting after me,
“Look to your pistols, young man.” I had pistols with me, but I
needed them not. I proceeded unmolested in my journey till within a
mile of Rumford; when the miserable beast I rode making a trip, fell;
and I received a contusion on my knee, that, for a time, prevented my
rising, and totally disabled me from mounting again. With much
difficulty I reached an inn at Rumford, leading the horse, and in my
wish to find shelter, I became indifferent to accommodations. I took
the first house that was open, and found, with civility, a bed, to which
I instantly repaired. The next morning I found the injury I had
received too serious to allow me to prosecute my journey, without
hazard, on Simons’s vaunted horse. I therefore sent the beast home,
with a note to Simons, mentioning my accident, and the necessity I
was under of pursuing my journey in a post chaise, as it was
absolutely my purpose to be at Harwich on the Saturday. My hostess,
had, in the mean time, with much humanity applied her infallible
nostrum to my knee; and, on my quitting her the following day, she
generously insisted on my taking some of the ointment with me,
assuring me, that by being repeated, it would relieve not only the
tumour, but the pain. In this point, she was however mistaken, and,
on reaching the appointed inn at Harwich, I could not stand on my
legs. The waiter, who assisted me into the house, asked me, whether
my name was Duncan; and being answered in the affirmative, he
proceeded to tell me, that a person had called twice, within the hour,
to enquire for me. Not doubting but this was my incognito friend,
and that he would return to the house, I ordered him to be conducted
to me, and dismissed the man for some coffee. During this interval of
suspense and curiosity my knee solicited my attention; it was
extremely painful, and I had recourse to my Rumford landlady’s
specific for a bruise. Whilst employed in applying most assuredly
what most assuredly augmented the evil, the door of the apartment
was suddenly opened; and to my inconceivable surprise Simons
hastily entered. “You are come at last,” said he with an oath, “I have
been on the rack these two hours.” “And I for near four and twenty,”
replied I, interrupting him, and directing his attention to my
employment; “but what brings you hither?” He grasped my hand
with eagerness, and in a low voice told me, that he came to save my
life. I laughed, I believe, for he swore most horridly, and concluded
by saying, that he had not time to see me play the fool. “The person,”
added he, “commissioned by your father to meet you here, is no
stranger to me. Let it suffice, I am in his secret. He is, it may be, at
this instant dying at Helvoetsluys of a fever, and I am ordered to
conduct you there to him; all is prepared; and you must go this
instant on board the packet. There is not a moment to lose.” I
hesitated, for I thought of my Harriet; but he urged me with a
vehemence that confounded my deliberations; and concluded by
saying, that my honour, and even my life, depended on my following
him. With his help and a porter’s I was conveyed to the water-side,
and there found the boat, in which we reached the packet, then,
getting under sail, I threw myself on the bed reserved for me,
subdued by the pain in my knee, and soon after was seized with the
sea sickness. I saw no more of my companion that night: and learned
that, fearing to share in the common malady, he preferred being on
deck. It was with difficulty that I supported myself to the public
house at the Sluys; but overcome, as I was, with pain, I failed not to
remark, that Simons spoke the Dutch language fluently. “It is well I
can,” answered he roughly to my observation, “for your friend is not
here; we must proceed to Rotterdam; and you must bear up as well
as you can; the passage-boat is an easy conveyance for you. This boat
was shared by others as well as ourselves; and with an irritation of
mind, as great as my bodily sufferings, we proceeded to Rotterdam;
and on reaching the hotel, I fainted. On recovering my senses, which
had been suspended for some time, I saw a well dressed man
engaged in giving me succour, and I concluded that this was the
person I was to meet. On asking Simons whether he was the dying
man I had been led to expect, he answered, that he was a surgeon,
and that my knee required some better remedy than I had applied. I
submitted to his orders, and was carried to bed. At length Simons
was at leisure to satisfy my curiosity. He began the subject himself,
by observing with some ill-humour that it was unlucky—I omit the
epithets, my Harriet, with which he interlarded even his expressions
of kindness, that, what with the indisposition of my friend, and my
accident, which he found from the surgeon would unavoidably detain
me some days in my bed, he should be forced to prolong his stay. I
have written to Amsterdam,” continued he, “where I find the sick
man was advised to remain; to-morrow or the next day, we shall have
letters.” Need, I say, in what manner this interval was filled up by
me! I wrote you a circumstantial account of these various events; and
the fond wish of making my Harriet easy under a separation so
unexpected, imparted to my bosom a portion of those hopes which
were necessary for her support as well as mine. This letter I intrusted
to the surgeon’s care, not chusing to employ Simons. I made him
comprehend, that it was of importance to me; and, with a good-
natured smile, he satisfied me, that he would faithfully discharge his
trust. It was under cover to Mrs. Keith. Too fatally certain is it, that
you never saw this letter! In the mean time, my soul was on the rack,
from having no intelligence of you. Again, and again, I wrote to Mrs.
Keith, and to you. I had no letters, and I began to suspect the
surgeon had given Simons my letters, instead of putting them into
the post-office. In the mean time his attention to my
accommodations and health had nothing in them to surprise me; for
he constantly talked of his being commissioned by the gentleman at
Amsterdam, to be careful of his “precious charge,” and sometimes he
translated passages from his letters expressive of the importance of
my person, and his anxiety in not being in a state to attend me
himself. I was now on crutches, and free from pain; and I was told
that it was proper for me to proceed to Amsterdam. I decidedly
refused, saying that I was determined to return to England; and he
might inform his correspondent of my resolution, it being
indispensibly necessary for my peace, to have news from thence. “I
will furnish you with a newspaper,” said he gravely; “that will, I trust,
make you change your mind; but it may not be amiss to prepare you
for news that will surprise you more than you are aware.” He began
his narrative of the highway robbery charged on me, and finished by
placing before me the article in the day’s paper, which, with a detail
of the particulars, included a description of my person, situation, and
even the initials of my name, and of the master with whom I served
as clerk. You will judge, my Harriet, of the effect which this
intelligence produced. I solemnly swore that no power on earth
should prevent my immediately appearing and confronting the base
and false accuser. “You know best,” replied Simons, “the proofs with
which you can invalidate this man’s positive oath.” But I would
advise you rather to secure such a condition of fortune, as will of
itself, with nine hundred and ninety-nine out of a thousand, prove
that you are slandered. “In a word,” continued he, with a serious air,
“I have had my instructions from those, who will take care of your
honour better than you are able to do yourself. Your parents are rich
and powerful, and, trust me, more than one will be called to a strict
account for their conduct in regard to you.” I was still resolved on my
measures; for my wife’s deplorable condition solely engaged me. “It
is well, Sir,” observed he, with a tone of authority, “I shall proceed
without you, and even if it be necessary to Cadiz, and inform your
noble parents, that you preferred a gibbet to them. But you are a
simpleton, Duncan,” added he, with more kindness, “I know your
motive for this headstrong folly. Will your appearance, and the
charge which will be brought against you, lessen the distress of the
girl you love?” I started. “I know more than you think of that
business also,” continued he; “and I advise you to write to her, and
instantly make your way to your parents. You will then be able to
offer her the protection she needs.” I burst into tears, and
reproached him with having stopped my letters. He vehemently
denied the charge; adding, “that he pitied Miss Flamall, and was
better pleased to serve her than to injure her.”
Unable to extract more from a man who hourly assumed with me
more of respect as well as of authority, I yielded to his control. I was
still lame and helpless; and except the diminished sum with which
your brother had furnished me, I had no resources for my
premeditated plan. Simons soothed me, by conducting me to the
post-office, where I deposited a letter for you, and his orders taken,
to forward all letters to our address at Cadiz, to a house of business
sufficiently ostensible to gain him attention with the people at the
office. We prepared immediately for our departure for Amsterdam,
when he entered the apartment with an opened letter in his hand. “I
thought how it would be,” said he, “your cursed accident, and the
delay it has occasioned will oblige me to go the whole voyage with
you. Your father’s agent is too ill for the voyage; he has sent me bills
of “exchange;” he displayed the notes, and urged me to lose no time.
He is, I find, in the country; and dangerously ill. However, I am
embarked, and will not desert you. At Amsterdam I was again
surprised. This Proteus spoke the Spanish tongue well, and in his
conversation with the captain of a Spanish ship bound for Cadiz, I
perceived that he assumed the gravity and stateliness of a Spanish
grandee. On the man’s leaving us, after having settled the terms for
our accommodation, I mentioned my surprise, on finding him so
qualified for a traveller.” “I lived on the continent some time in my
young days,” answered he. “I was private secretary to an ambassador,
who in his lack of brains, forgot to pay me for the five years use he
made of mine; he taught me a lesson however which I wanted,”
continued he with a malicious grin, “namely, to live by my own wit;
and to regard every man either as a fool or a knave.” It required very
little judgment, my dear Harriet, to determine the class to which
Simons belonged; yet in spite of his habitual vulgarity, and coarse
language, I hourly perceived that he had moved in a different sphere,
and could at his pleasure assume the gentleman. He spoke of me as a
Spaniard by birth, and by the respect he showed me, taught those
about me to consider me as of importance; performing the part of my
governor; and making no secret of my having been a stranger to my
rank, parents, and country, from nearly the hour I was born. These
hints were needless, to stimulate a curiosity constantly on the fullest
stretch. To my questions I received only one answer: “I am bound to
secresy, and it is for my interest to be faithful. Have patience, time
will discover all to you.” Thus goaded on, and convinced of my
inability of securing him in my interest; having exhausted my own
little stock of money, and depending, in a strange country upon
Simons for pecuniary assistance, I left Amsterdam without having
received letters from you; and in the anguish of my soul I sought
relief from the hope of meeting with protection, and being placed in a
situation to succour you; for I made no doubt of your brother’s
interference with your wishes to write to me. Our navigation was for
a time pleasant. The gentle breezes which filled our sails soon
exempted me from sea sickness; rest restored my knee, and my
hours were beguiled by my assiduously studying the Spanish
language; for which, Simons having proposed it for my amusement, I
had purchased a few needful books.
At this period, however, one incidental cause of sorrow was added
to my oppressive burden. Two or three days after your departure
from town, I had began to bathe, trusting to its relieving me from a
portion, at least, of that languor which I experienced; and, cautiously
guarded in all that related to my Harriet, had taken your picture
from my bosom, and placed it in my port-folio with your letters,
which I carefully kept locked in a large trunk, with articles that were
not of every day’s use. I had seen on reaching Helvoetsluys that this
trunk made the greatest part of our baggage; and on noticing it to
Simons, he replied, that he expected my thanks for his zeal in my
service in bringing it, as he supposed it was kept as lumber in my
room, and that I should have no objection to a change of linen. To
this necessity I had been hitherto a stranger, and the trunk remained
corded till I was settled in my cabin on board the Spanish ship. The
treasure it contained was too precious to be forgotten. I searched for
it in vain. Neither your letters nor your portrait were to be found. I
did not conceal my suspicions, nor my distress from Simons, who as
usual, with the most horrid imprecations affirmed that he had not
opened the trunk; nor had any other motive in removing it, but that
of contributing to my comforts and amusement, knowing that I had
some books in it. To contest with Simons was a vain attempt. I was
silenced, and bore this trial, to use my master’s words like a “whining
puppy.” Yet in spite of himself I perceived that he had an interest in
preserving my health and tranquillity, and that he never ceased to
recommend to me patience; hinting continually that I should soon be
in a condition to take ample vengeance on those who had injured me,
and to protect you, who had been so unjustly dealt with. These
conversations with his avowed good will for you, and pity for me had
their effect.
We were within thirty or forty leagues of our post when we were
boarded by a large, well-armed Algerine corsair, and taken without
resistance; for such was the inferiority of our force, that it was not
possible for us to escape. Surprised and confounded by an event for
which I was altogether unprepared, my compassion was
notwithstanding exerted in comforting my terrified companion. I
strove to encourage him by the same hopes which had calmed my
own spirits; and with confidence I assured him, that as subjects of
Great Britain we should be enlarged at Algiers; and that we had only
to apply to the British consul resident there, in order to be protected.
In this expectation we were cruelly disappointed, by the measures
which the pirate pursued; who from motives we could not fathom,
after having treated me with extraordinary lenity, and Simons
without rigour, landed us with great circumspection during the night
at some distance from the harbour; and to our amazement and
consternation we were, with our chests, placed in a covered vehicle
not unlike a waggon, and without loss of time conducted up the
country. We were manacled and vigilantly concealed from every eye
by those who were charged with us; who still maintained their claims
to our gratitude, by offering us no violence or harshness. I had not
been much surprised at seeing Simons relapsing into the
pusillanimity he had betrayed in the first moments of our capture;
but I was astonished to find that, with his grief for himself and the
most bitter execrations on his folly, he bemoaned my hard fate in
terms which I little expected from him. “Take courage,” said I, willing
to relieve his sorrow, “you have nothing to reproach yourself with in
this misfortune, and I am sorry, that your good intentions and zeal
for my service have led you into this difficulty; but we may yet find
the means of applying to the consul, or purchasing our freedom. Do
not despair.” “I must,” replied he with a look of horror. “I have been
a d——d rascal, and your destruction, my poor boy. If you were to
forgive me, God never will; and this is only the beginning of my
punishment.” He wept in agonies, and I was alarmed. “I can neither
be useful to you, nor yet forgive you,” observed I, desisting from my
ineffectual attempts to soothe his agitations, “’till I am more in your
confidence. Tell me what have you done to injure me, and trust to my
principles, which command me to forgive an offending brother.” “By
G—d,” exclaimed he, “this is too much! I cannot bear it, villain as I
am! But you shall know all; and you shall see that at least I never
intended to harm you, though it is but too true that my business in
your concerns was to serve myself.”

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Mathematical Modeling 4th Edition

Meerschaert Solutions Manual

Weather Winning Hours of Divisions

Weather Winning Hours of Divisions

Case of lambda = 2.0

Weather Winning Hours of Divisions

Case of lambda = 4.0

Weather Winning Hours of Divisions

Case of lambda = 5.0

Weather Winning Hours of Divisions

Advantadge Reinforcements Hours of Winning Remaining

k Steps to dock Time to dock (sec)

k Steps to dock Time to dock (sec)

k Steps to dock Time to dock (sec)

DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION

Fin (1000s) 300

Initial Blue whale population time to extinction (years)

Initial Blue whale population time to grow back (years)

Intrinsic growth rate (%) time to extinction (years)

Minimum viable population time to grow back (years)

Minimum viable population time to extinction (years)

9. (a) We used a spreadsheet implementation of the simple simulation technique of

DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION

DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION

11. (a) As in exercise 7 of chapter 4 we let

(b) We repeat the simulation of part (a) starting at

(c) We repeat the simulation of part (a) starting at

12. (a) We assume d(x,y)=F(x,y) where F=(f1,f2) and

dx1/dt = f1(x1,x2) = (x1-x1^3-x2) / L

Variables: theta = pendulum angle (radians)

Objective: Determine s(t) given theta(0)=Pi/4 and (theta)'(0)=0.

20. (a,b) Substitute x1 = x2 = (a-1)/a to check that (a-1)*x1-a*x1^2=0 and x1-x2=0 at

10 REM RUNGE-KUTTA METHOD IN TWO VARIABLES

old new % change Sensitivity

Fin whales (x2)

Fin whales (x2)

Fin whales (x2)

“To Lady Maclairn.”

“I am composed, my Harriet. I have seen thee, I have heard thy

Charles Duncan’s Narrative.

I will be calm. Is it fit for a wretch like me to flinch at the sight of

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20. (a,b) Substitute x1 = x2 = (a-1)/a to check that (a-1)x1-ax1^2=0 and x1-x2=0 at