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Puma Conference Call Preliminary Results q4 Fy 2023 Transcript - 0
Puma Conference Call Preliminary Results q4 Fy 2023 Transcript - 0
Puma Conference Call Preliminary Results q4 Fy 2023 Transcript - 0
Please note that the transcript has been edited to enhance comprehensibility.
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PRESENTATION
Gottfried Hoppe Thank you very much, Francy. Ladies and gentlemen, also
from my end, welcome to PUMA’s conference call. First of
all, let me start by thanking you for your flexibility in joining
us today on such short notice for the extraordinary
conference call on an extraordinary occasion.
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not in that magnitude. The timing of the devaluation close to
year end almost made it impossible for us to fully
compensate the impact from this devaluation by price
increases. This is how we usually operate in Argentina.
I think it's very important also for this conference call that
we look at our performance from two different angles. The
first angle is our underlying operating performance, so what
did we really achieve, excluding the extraordinary
devaluation? And that was a very strong performance
because we were fully on track to not only achieve, but even
overachieve our expectations, especially on the profitability
side. The second perspective is in the recorded financial
performance, the figures which we recorded financially due
to the application of this accounting. These numbers are
still strong and still almost fully in line with the provided
outlook, except for the net income side.
Let me talk a bit more about Q4, before we talk about the
financial year 2023. In Q4 we delivered a good underlying
operating performance and showed positive growth, before
the Argentinian peso devaluated that significantly. It was
probably the most challenging quarter of the full year and
we were also comping against a super-strong Q4 2022,
which was up 21% versus Q4 21. But we were still able to
continue our growth trajectory, thanks to our ongoing brand
momentum and good sell-throughs.
As I said earlier, due to the accounting of hyperinflationary
countries, we needed to recognise the full year
retranslation impact in only one quarter. Obviously, this had
a significant negative impact on our financially recorded
numbers. Despite the strong devaluation, we were also able
to deliver on our promise in Q4 that we will significantly
improve our profitability in Q4 2023. We delivered €94
million in profit, which is 100% more than last year, and also
fully in line with our outlook and consensus. This we have
achieved due to a strong improvement in our gross profit
margin and strict cost discipline.
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Now, let’s talk about the full year. As I said, we need to look
at our performance from two different angles. The
underlying operating performance, this is what you see in
yellow, and then our recorded financial performance, which
you see in grey. Let’s first look at our recorded financial
performance. With our Q4 numbers we were able to deliver
full-year numbers on the top line with our 6.6% currency
adjusted growth, still broadly in line with our outlook of high
single-digit growth. Without this extraordinary impact from
an accounting perspective, we would have reported a
growth of more than 8%, slightly above the midpoint of our
previous guidance.
On the bottom line we delivered 622 million EBIT, which is
fully in line with the outlook given and very close to the
midpoint. Without the extraordinary devaluation, we would
have overachieved the expectations and show a profitability
at the upper end of our outlook, and above 640 million from
last year. In our initial outlook at the beginning of 2023, we
did say that the net income will change corresponding to the
EBIT development. This projection did not hold true for Q4
and for the year, due to the Argentinian peso devaluation.
Basically, the full gap between the actuals and the
expectations can be attributed to this sheer accounting
effect. Although we don't provide an outlook on this, I would
like to highlight our great achievement on the free cash flow
side. We did a huge improvement there on the cash
generation side and will deliver an improvement of more
than 100% versus last year.
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Hubert Hinterseher Thank you, Arne. Let’s start with a quick recap on
September and the year-to-date outlook. As you can see,
end of September we had a constant currency growth of
10.3%. Based on existing peso devaluation trend, we
forecasted a high single-digit currency adjusted growth for
the full year.
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better freight rates. We also had our ongoing cost discipline,
which paid off in the fourth quarter and supported the
operating EBIT improvement. Nevertheless, due to the
translation impact of the Argentinian operating profit, we
saw a negative impact on the total reported group numbers.
And this is then translating, despite the negative impact of
the peso, into a strong EBIT of 94 million in the fourth
quarter, an improvement of 133% compared to 2022.
If we have a look at the full year, we can see that before the
Argentinian peso devaluation, we would have been able to
meet last year’s net income as approximately 354 million. If
we add the additional negative impact from the Argentinian
peso devaluation, we end at 305 million in the reported net
income of the PUMA Group. This is a decline of 13.7%.
If we sum it up, despite the negative devaluation impact of
the peso, we achieved a very strong operating result with
net sales broadly in line with the full-year expectation and
the EBIT, which is most important, fully inline with the full-
year expectation. Given the strong trend on the gross profit
margin in the fourth quarter, as well as cost discipline on
the OPEX side. With that, I would like to hand back to Arne.
Arne Freundt Thank you, Hubert. I hope the additional explanations were
helpful and everybody is clear about the fact that the
deviation from the expectation is only driven by the
accounting of hyperinflation countries at a very unfortunate
moment in time of the year, with only 18 days to go. I think
it's also clear the underlying operating performance speaks
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a complete different language and showed that we were
fully in line with the expectation of net sales, and on a very
good track to overachieve the EBIT which we have set as an
outlook.
Operator Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time we
will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who
wishes to ask a question may press star and one. If you wish
to remove yourself from the question queue you may press
star and two. In the interest of time, please limit yourself to
one question only. Anyone who has a question may press
star and one at this time. Our first question today comes
from Anne-Laure Bismuth from HSBC. Please go ahead
with your question.
Anne-Laure Bismuth Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I understand the
explanation that you have provided about the Argentinian
peso devaluation and the impact that it has had, but we have
the feeling that there is something more deeper that is
going on. Can you reassure us on that front? Especially on
the new product innovation, has it been well received by
wholesalers? What is the feedback on that? But first thing,
can you reassure us that there are no deeper issues at
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PUMA? Thank you.
Arne Freundt Thanks, Anne-Laure. Yes, I can easily reassure you on this
one. The feedback on our new product pipeline has been
very good. We are very excited about the newness, which is
dropping in the course of this year. Newness not only on the
performance side, but also on the sportswear side. We feel
very well positioned and also our order book reflects this
accordingly.
Anne-Laure Bismuth Can you quantify your exposure to Argentina? Thank you.
Arne Freundt When you say exposure, I think you mean what kind of share
it has in terms of our total net sales mix. The share it has is
in the low single digit.
Anne-Laure Bismuth Thank you.
Operator The next question comes from David Roux from Bank of
America. Please go ahead.
David Roux Morning, everyone. Just to focus on the FY24 outlook, in the
release there's a comment where you flag demand risks in
the first half. Can you confirm what you are expecting for the
second half that’s baked into your guidance? Then just a
clarification. Can you confirm the FY24 outlook is clean of
any accounting impact?
Arne Freundt Thanks, David. I think when you look at 2024, we expect that
the macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical
challenges which we have, which are weighing on the
consumer sentiment are spilling over from 2023 into the
first half of 2024. This is why we expect H1 to be softer and
H2 to be stronger. This is also how we see the shape of our
order book building up.
When we talk about the accounting impact, I think we also
stated it in our outlook, that we are expecting that the
devaluation can be fully compensated with according price
increases. This is how we have always operated in
Argentina, this is also how we will continue to operate in
Argentina. Again, I think we’re in a very special situation
with a new president being elected, taking a very strong and
sudden devaluation, which was not expected at that late
moment in time of the year. So, yes, we can confirm that.
David Roux Thank you.
Operator The next question comes from Warwick Okines from BNP.
Please go ahead.
Warwick Okines Morning, everyone. Thanks for the explanation about the
impact on 23, but I also have a question on 2024. At the
bottom end of your profit range, you're effectively saying flat
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profits, but with revenue growth. Could you just talk through
the dynamics that would get you to that situation? In
particular, I’d be interested in the currency impacts on
gross margins through the year, please. Thank you.
Arne Freundt Thanks, Warwick. When we look at our outlook for the full
year in 2024, we do expect the gross profit margin to further
improve. Not only due to less promotion, but also due to a
higher share of DTC. It's the same story as in 2023, in DTC
we don't have the lag in between sell-in and sell-out. And
the brand momentum is always best reflected immediately
in the DTC development. Then on the OPEX side, I think
we've always said we need high single-digit growth on the
top line to see some operational leverage, thus we will
continue to invest in the marketing side because we
continue to perceive ourselves as the challenger who wants
to continue to outgrow the market. And we believe with a
mid-single-digit guidance which we have given, we are in
the position to continue to grab further market share in that
volatile environment. I'll let Hubert speak further about the
currency impact on the gross profit margin.
Hubert Hinterseher Let me take quick the impact of the hedging on the gross
profit margin. We have in the first half year 2024 a little bit
headwind from the currency 2023 first half year. We will
enjoy a better hedging rate in the second half year. This will
turn around, we will enjoy a tail wind from the hedging. But
overall, for the full year 24, we see basically no impact from
the US dollar hedging on the gross profit margin. The
impact of the first and the second half here is neutralising
each other.
Warwick Okines Thank you. Apologies if this is a stupid question, but I don't
quite understand the comment around brand operating
costs. Because if you've got revenues rising in 24 and a
higher gross margin, then you're actually assuming
operating deleverage if you achieve the same absolute level
of EBIT in 2024, as you did in 2023.
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Piral Dadhania Thank you. Morning, everybody. Could I please just come
back to the guidance and the shape that you just described,
Arne. On an underlying basis my understanding is that the
Q4 exit rate in constant currency terms was plus eight
organic top line. But the outlook for the first half of 24
sounds much, much more cautious, so the question really
is where does that significant deceleration in expectations
come from? I think you alluded to the order book, but is it
perhaps, to a pervious question, that the product pipeline is
maybe a little bit less strong in the first half or is there
anything else that suggests or supports the view that the top
line is going to slow as dramatically as you suggest in the
next one to two quarters? Thank you.
Arne Freundt Thank you, Piral, for your question. I'm not sure how you
derived your 8% underlying operating performance. It is
rather at the high end of low single digits for Q4 2023. And
again, it's very important to understand, A, the volatile
environment in which we are currently operating, and I think
everybody is clear about the headwinds which have further
intensified, especially on the back of the geopolitical
challenges, which we see in this world. Secondly, please
also bear in mind that Q4 2022 was very strong, the best
quarter ever, with plus 21% growth, so the base is very high.
I think when you look also inter versus intra, I think it's
always best that we look into how are we competing against
the competition. And again, I think on the higher end of the
low single digit, that we are among the better ones in the
industry, how they competed in Q4.
Piral Dadhania Sorry, I apologise, I think I misheard your prepared
remarks. I heard plus eight, but no, I take your point. That’s
fair. Then in terms of just the H1, perhaps, is there a
scenario in which your organic revenue growth could be
negative?
Arne Freundt We are only three weeks into the trading. As we said, we
cannot disclose any results today. We believe that we are in
a good scenario, that we will show growth in both
semesters, but we will provide you with more updates on
the current trading in the course of our earnings call at the
end of February.
Piral Dadhania Thank you.
Operator Next question comes from Grace Smalley from Morgan
Stanley. Please go ahead.
Grace Smalley Good morning. Thank you. Could you just help us on the
2024 outlook, what you have embedded in terms of any
impact from the current Red Sea disruption, both on a top
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line perspective in terms of the product flow and then also
margin impact, in terms of any freight surcharges or
whether we should expect the freight impact to flow more
through into 2025, if it stays elevated, at least? And just any
colour on what you're seeing in terms of the current
disruption. Thank you very much.
Arne Freundt Thank you. When you look at the disruption on the Red Sea,
let’s first put it into perspective. Around one-third of our
freight goes through the Suez channel. When we talk about
our freight rates, I think we also informed you last time that
we have an agreement which goes until the middle of this
year. There are obviously, due to the new routes which need
to be taken, certain surcharges, which need to be applied.
We believe this is a temporary impact, which would
obviously only last a few months. But this will not have
material impact on our profitability. I think the lead times
we do expect are extending up to 20 days. That is something
as we speak, since it was clear that we need to take different
routes, where we’re reprioritising certain products. But as
of today, we feel comfortable that we are managing the
challenge very well, both from a lead time perspective, as
well as from a surcharge perspective.
Grace Smalley Thank you.
Operator Next question comes from Monique Pollard from Citi.
Please go ahead.
Monique Pollard Morning, everyone. Just one question from me on the gross
margin expansion that you’ve talked about for FY24. In the
context, as you say, inventories are in a good position. When
I look at the fact that you're expecting gross margin
expansion but you're thinking that the 1H shape might be a
little bit more lacklustre than 2H. Is it fair to say you're
focused on prioritising margins and not pushing through too
many sales in a promotional environment? Would that
characterise the approach at least to the first half of the
year?
Arne Freundt Thanks, Monique, for your questions. As I stated, and which
is also reflected into our significantly improved gross profit
margin for Q4, we believe that our inventory is in very good
shape in terms of age, as well as in terms of size. But
obviously we cannot stand away if competition continues to
be on promotional. We feel that we are in the right position.
Obviously we continue to focus on full-price sales. If the
competitive pressure is high and we need to react to be on
par at broadly the same prices, it's yet to be told.
Monique Pollard Understood. Thank you.
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Operator Next question comes from Jürgen Kolb from Kepler. Please
go ahead.
Jürgen Kolb Thank you very much. The question’s around the order
book. I was wondering if you could maybe provide us with
additional details on the magnitude of order book H1, H2,
and specifically, if you've already seen any order
cancellations from wholesalers? Thank you.
Arne Freundt I'm not sure if I understood the last part of the question, why
we should see order cancellations. Rather the opposite, we
are taking more orders. When we look at the shape of the
order book, as I said, we’re still in the midst of the process
of writing our orders for the second half of the year. But the
shape which we currently see makes us believe that we see
a softer H1 and then a stronger H2. But I would like that we
finalise our order taking in the next two months, before we
shed a bit more light on the build-up of the orders.
Jürgen Kolb I thought that’s specifically for spring, probably the order
book is already pretty much in your hands. I was just
wondering that maybe retailers, given the environment that
you alluded to, may have also already been a little bit more
cautious here, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.
Arne Freundt No. As I said, the more we move towards the mid of the year,
the better our order book is improving, so Q2 order book is
already better than Q1 order book, so this is something
which we clearly see.
Jürgen Kolb Very good, thank you.
Operator Next question comes from Zuzanna Pusz from UBS. Please
go ahead.
Zuzanna Pusz Good morning, Thank you for taking my question. Sorry if
this is a slightly silly question, but just to follow up on the
assumptions you have behind your 2024 outlook. I'm still a
little bit lost why it's so much weaker. You're accounting for
the devaluation of the peso, I presume, the weaker order
book. The gross margin I guess still having some impact of
promotions, I presume, and the freight cost. But am I right
to understand you basically expect your growth to be
majority retail driven?
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we’re aware of what risks are baked into your outlook and
what could still surprise us negatively, if for whatever
reason it happens. Thank you.
Arne Freundt Thank you, Zuzanna. I think when we are looking into 2024
and the sales, the geopolitical and macroeconomic stay very
volatile. It is of course that we are taking a cautious
approach going into 2024 and baked in all the risk which we
can foresee as of this moment in time. I think that is clear.
Then when you talked about the deceleration, again, I think
we need to see very clearly that we are not operating in a
bubble and we need to benchmark ourselves against other
players in the same industry, how they are currently
performing. I believe the mid-single digit will put us in the
position where we can continue to grab the market share.
Now you had very specific questions in terms of how is the
different channel split shaping up and how the different
regional split is shaping up because it was all determining
the different gross profit margin. Here again, we are only
two or three weeks into the trade of this year. Normally we
give you the outlook at the end of February, where we have
two months in the books, where we have to see how it's
clearly shaping up. And this is also how we would like to do
it this year, that we are clearly giving you more indications
of how we see the shape of the different divisions and
channels for the full year.
Zuzanna Pusz Can I just follow up? Can you confirm the retail channel at
the EBIT level is margin accretive or margin dilutive for you?
Just so that we understand because I think the big concern
everyone is having is that the competition is intensifying in
the wholesale channel. I think your peers are very vocal,
both Nike and Adidas, about coming back to the wholesale
channel. This is something that is important for us to
understand because if that dynamic changes and you are no
longer able to take that much share in wholesale, we need
to understand what’s the implication for your profitability.
Can you just confirm, if retail channel, if you grow majority
via retail, is this EBIT margin accretive or dilutive? Thank
you.
Arne Freundt First, it's a very specific one. When you look at the different
DTC profitability, it does vary country by country, so it's also
a regional component coming into play when you talk about
DTC profitability. If you take a global perspective, it is
broadly in line with the same profitability, which we do see
on the wholesale side. What I mentioned also earlier, and I
would like to reiterate again, that yes, DTC, especially also
in 2023 was growing faster because we don't have the lag in
between sell-in and sell-out. What we continue to see in
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wholesale is overall that we have good sell-through. We do
see that also reflects in our orders. I did say already that our
behaviour, that we want to be the best partner to retailers,
is not changing and I think that’s also what our retailers see.
We also talk about competition being more vocal of
readdressing wholesale, which I think is fine and the same
comment which we see. Again, when we look into the
market reality and most of the distribution channels, we are
still the challenger. We don't have the market shelf space
which we need, in terms of to really explore and show the
strength of our product. So, for us the upside is significantly
higher than any potential downside. We are clearly here to
attack and gain more market share in the wholesale. Again,
just the reality check is always the best witness, that you will
say yes, he’s right, there's more to gain for them.
Zuzanna Pusz Sorry, I promise last one, but can you confirm if it's getting
more difficult to gain shelf space or you're not seeing any
difference from your peers coming back to wholesale?
Arne Freundt Overall, we do see that the competition is fierce, but it has
always been fierce. I cannot remember one year within
PUMA that we did not have fierce competition. I think that is
very clear. But again, we are far too small in most of the
distribution channels and we are the ones who are
attacking.
Zuzanna Pusz Excellent. Thank you.
Operator In the interest of time, we will take one more question,
which is from Andreas Riemann from ODDO BHF. Please go
ahead.
Andreas Riemann Hello. One on the regional trends. You referred to an
uncertain consumer environment. Is that a global comment,
i.e. do you see a deceleration in EMEA and in China as well?
Or is it still mainly the US which is responsible for the
deceleration in H1 24? This will be my question. Thanks.
Arne Freundt I would like to answer the question a bit more global than
giving you specific guidance on a regional level for H1. What
we do see and what we also have highlighted in the Q3 call,
that the speed of the recovery of the American market is
slower than what we have all expected. I think it's
something which you see across the whole sector. But we
believe that 2024 should be for sure a better year than 2023
for the US. I think on China, a bit different shape because it
is growing, the industry, but not at the speed as we would
have wished to see the recovery. Again, the same, we
believe that we can continue our growth trajectory in China,
in that environment. More colour we are happy to provide
you in the course of our full year numbers end of February.
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Andreas Riemann So, no comment on EMEA? Because you started US and
China.
Arne Freundt EMEA is now a very broad region, compensating more than
13, 14 countries in our world. We continue to have strong
positions in our countries there, but the geopolitical
conflicts are in that region, one in the Middle East, the other
one in the Ukraine. It is yet to be told how big this Middle
East conflict is going to be in the future. This is clear in
terms of geopolitical uncertainty, that it's the region which
is probably most affected.
Andreas Riemann Thanks for your answer.
Operator Now handing back to Gottfried Hoppe for closing comments.
Gottfried Hoppe Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you very
much, Andreas, for trying to get some additional
information on the current trading in the latest quarter.
Hubert, Arne, thank you very much for making yourself
available for this call at short notice. The same over to you,
ladies and gentlemen, out there.
Maybe a very quick remark, talking about reassuring you on
the product newness. I would like to remind you about the
opportunity seeing the product yourself, especially when it
comes to spring/summer 25. Also reminding you about our
Capital Markets Day on 29 February/1 March. Because that
will provide you this exclusive insight into the upcoming
product pipeline, which I hope you understand will be only
possible in person and will not be broadcast via webcast. In
the meantime, we are looking forward to your attendance in
person and are looking forward to your further
registrations.
I hope the call answered all of your questions today. I'll be
available by the end of the week for any potential follow-ups
and then we'll be in our quiet period. In the meantime, have
a nice rest of the day and talk to you soon. Bye-bye.
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