Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life

4th Edition Bennett Test Bank

Visit to download the full and correct content document: https://testbankdeal.com/dow
nload/statistical-reasoning-for-everyday-life-4th-edition-bennett-test-bank/
Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life
Chapter 7 (Correlation and Causality) Exam, form A
1) The number of miles one runs and the number of calories burned have a
A) Positive correlation B) Negative correlation C) No correlation
Use the table below to determine whether a correlation is significant at the specified
level.
Table for Assessing the Statistical Significance of Correlations
Correlation Coefficient Correlation Coefficient
Number of Required for Significance Required for Significance
Data Points at the 0.05 Level at the 0.01 Level
N r r
5 .878 .959
6 .811 .917
10 .632 .765
15 .514 .641
18 .468 .590
50 .279 .361
80 .220 .286
90 .207 .269
100 .196 .256

2) n = 15 points and r = −0.498 at the 0.05 level.

A) Significant B) Not Significant
3) n = 50 points and r = 0.209 at the 0.01 level
A) Significant B) Not Significant
4) Select the best estimate of the correlation coefficient for the data depicted in the scatter
diagram.

A) −0.9 B) 0.9 C) 0.5 D) −0.5

86
Copyright © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
5) Which point below would be an outlier if it were on the following graph?

A) (25, 20) B) (5, 12) C) (7, 5) D) (5, 3)

6) Which graph that has two groups of data, correlations within each group, but no correlation
among all the data?

7)

The graph shows a measure of fitness (y) and miles walked weekly. Identify the probable
cause of the correlation.
A) The correlation is coincidental.
B) There is a common underlying cause of the correlation.
C) There is no correlation between the variables.
D) Walking is a direct cause of the fitness.

87
Copyright © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
8) Select the best fit line on the scatter diagram below.

A) A
B) B
C) C
D) None of the lines is the line of best fit.
E) All three lines are equally good.
9)

The scatter plot and best-fit line show the relation among the number of cars waiting by a
school (y) and the amount of time after the end of classes (x) in arbitrary units. The
correlation coefficient is −0.55. Determine the amount of variation in the number of cars not
explained by the variation time after school.
A) 55% B) 70% C) 30% D) 45%
10)

The scatter plot and best-fit line show the relation among the data for the price of a stock (y)
and employment (x) in arbitrary units. The correlation coefficient is 0.8. Predict the stock
price for an employment value of 6.
A) 8.8 B) 6.2
C) 8.2 D) None of the values is correct.

88
Copyright © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life
Chapter 7 (Correlation and Causality) Exam, form B
1) The number of data points and the absolute value of the correlation coefficient required for
significance at 0.05 level have a
A) Positive correlation B) Negative correlation C) No correlation
Use the table below to determine whether a correlation is significant at the
specified level.
Z
Correlation coefficient Correlation Coefficient
Number of Required for Significance Required for Significance
Data Points at the 0.05 Level at the 0.01 Level
n r r
5 .878 .959
6 .811 .917
10 .632 .765
15 .514 .641
18 .468 .590
50 .279 .361
80 .220 .286
90 .207 .269
100 .196 .256
2) n = 18 points and r = 0.346 at the 0.05 level.
A) Significant B) Not Significant
3) n = 90 points and r = -0.241 at the 0.05 level.
A) Significant B) Not Significant
4) Select the best estimate of the correlation coefficient for the data depicted in the scatter
diagram.

A) −0.9 B) −0.1 C) −0.5 D) 0.9

89
Copyright © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
5) Write possible coordinates for the single outlier such that it would no longer be an outlier.

A) (23, 18) B) (20, 5) C) (15, 15) D) (12, 15)

6) Which scatter diagram has several groups of uncorrelated data but has the strongest
correlation among all the data?

7) Suggest the cause of the correlation among the data.

The graph shows strength of coffee (y) and number of scoops used to make 10 cups of coffee
(x). Identify the probable cause of the correlation.
A) The variation in the x variable is a direct cause of the variation in the y variable.
B) There is no correlation between the variables.
C) The correlation is due to a common underlying cause.
D) The correlation between the variables is coincidental.

90
Copyright © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
8) Select the best fit line on the scatter diagram below.

A) A
B) B
C) C
D) All of the lines are equally good.
E) None of the lines is the line of best-fit.
9)

The scatter plot and best-fit line show the relation between the price per item (y) and the
availability of that item (x) in arbitrary units. The correlation coefficient is −0.95. Determine
the amount of variation in pricing explained by the variation in availability.
A) 5% B) 10% C) 95% D) 90%
10)

The scatter plot and best-fit line show the relation among the number of cars waiting by a
school (y) and the amount of time after the end of classes (x) in arbitrary units. The
correlation coefficient is −0.55. Use the line of best fit to predict the number of cars at time 4
after the end of classes.
A) 7.0 B) 6.0 C) 8.0 D) 3.5 E) 6.84.0

91
Copyright © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life
Chapter 7 (Correlation and Causality) Exam, form C
1) The area of a garden and the time it takes to keep it weed free have a
A) Positive correlation B) Negative correlation C) Zero correlation
Use the table below to determine whether a correlation is significant at the
specified level.
Table for Assessing the Statistical Significance of Correlations
Correlation Coefficient Correlation Coefficient
Number of Required for Significance Required for Significance
Data Points at the 0.05 Level at the 0.01 Level
n r r
5 .878 .959
6 .811 .917
10 .632 .765
15 .514 .641
18 .468 .590
50 .279 .361
80 .220 .286
90 .207 .269
100 .196 .256

2) n = 10 points and r = -0.782 at the 0.01 level.

A) Significant B) Not Significant
3) n = 80 points and r = 0.262 at the 0.01 level.
A) Significant B) Not Significant
4) Select the best estimate of the correlation coefficient for the data depicted in the scatter
diagram.

A) 0.60 B) -0.97 C) −0.10 D) −0.60

92
Copyright © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
5) Write possible coordinates for both outliers so that neither would be an outlier.

A) (8, 14) and (16, 12) B) (8, 4) and (16, 8)

C) (8, 10) and (15, 3) D) (8, 8) and (16, 2)
6) Which graph has several groups of data such that there is no correlation of data within the
groups and a slightly negative correlation among all the data?

7)

The graph shows the number of correct answers on a test (y) and the length of the pencil used
to take the test(x). Identify the probable cause of the correlation.
A) Variation in pencil length is a direct cause of variation in the number of correct answers.
B) The correlation is due to a common underlying cause.
C) The correlation is coincidental.
D) There is no correlation between the variables.

93
Copyright © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
8) Which line of the three shown in the scatter diagram below fits the data best?.

A) A
B) B
C) C
D) All the lines are equally good.
E) None of the lines is the line of best-fit.
9)

The scatter plot and best-fit line show the relation between the number of spectators at the
games of a local hockey team(x) and the number of goals scored(y). The correlation
coefficient is 0.4. Determine the amount of variation in goals scored not explained by the
variation in attendance.
A) 84% B) 40% C) 16% D) 60%
10)

The scatter plot and best-fit line show the relation between the price per item (y) and the
availability of that item (x) in arbitrary units. The correlation coefficient is −0.95. Predict the
price per item for an availability of 10.
A) 4.9 B) 9.1
C) 4.5 D) 3.9

94
Copyright © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life
Chapter 7 (Correlation and Causality) Exam, Form D
1) The correlation between IQs of teenage boys and their shoe sizes is
A) Positive B) Negative C) Zero

For #2 and #3, use the correlation significance table below to determine whether A correlation is
significant at the specified level.

Table for Assessing the Statistical Significance of Correlation

Number of Data Points Correlation Coefficient Correlation Coefficient
Required for Significance Required for Significance
n at the 0.05 Level at the 0.05 Level
5 .878 .959
6 .811 .917
10 .632 .765
15 .514 .641
18 .468 .590
50 .279 .361
80 .220 .286
90 .207 .269
100 .196 .256

2) n = 18, r = -0.551 and the 0.05 level

A) Significant B) Not Significant

3) n = 90, r = 0.347 and the 0.01 level

A) Significant B) Not Significant

4) Choose the best estimate of r based on the diagram below.

16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
x

A) 0.8 B 0.98 C) -0.8 D) -0.98

95
Copyright © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
 5) For the diagram in Problem 4, choose the point that would be an outlier if it were plotted on
the graph.
A) (2,10) B) (5,14) C) (7,14) D) (11,0)

6) Consider the four plots shown below.

A) B)

y y

20 20

15 10

10 0
0 5 10 15 20 25
5 -10

0 -20
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 -30
x x

C) D)

y y

14 20
12
10 15
8
6 10
4
2
5
0
0 5 10 15 20 0
x 0 5 10 15 20

Which of these graphs illustrates a set of data that consists of two groups of data that are each
negatively correlated, but overall has correlation near zero?
A) A B) B C) C D) D

96
Copyright © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
7) Select the probable cause of correlation between the variables. The x variable is the weight of
a football halfback and the y variable is his average yards per game for a season.

200

150

100
y

50

0
150 170 190 210 230 250 270
x

A) Heavier players gain more yards.

B) Heavier players gain fewer yards.
C) There is no correlation between weight and yards gained.
D) The relationship between weight and yards gained is coincidental.

8) Select best fit line from the three lines shown below.

25
A
20

15 B
y

10
C
5

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
x

A) A B) B C) C

9) The best fit line in the diagram of Problem 8 has a correlation coefficient r =0.104. Find the
percent of the variation in y that is NOT explained by the linear relationship between x and y.

97
Copyright © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
10) From the graph below, use the best fit line to predict the value of y at x =30 (to the nearest
integer).

22
20
18
16
14
12
y

10
8
6
4
2
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
x

A) 18 B) 19 C) 25 D) Can’t tell because y = 30 is off the graph

98
Copyright © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
qualifications of a popular teacher. He would not have aspired to
finished eloquence of style: to the eloquence of gesture and of
manner, he was still more a stranger. But there is an eloquence of
physiognomy, which Mr. Rittenhouse most eminently possessed.
The modesty and amenity of his manner would have effected much,
whether his audience had been a class of philosophers, or an
assembly of ladies. Of his own discoveries, and opinions, and
theories, he would have always spoken with that sweet and modest
reserve, for which he was ever distinguished. He would have dwelt
with the most generous and ample enthusiasm upon the great
discoveries of Newton; and if, at any time, he could have forgotten
that impartial conduct, which it is the duty of the historian of a
science to observe, it would have been when he might have had
occasion to defend the theories of that great man, against the
objections of succeeding and minor philosophers.

In Physics, Newton was his favourite author. Of HIM he ever spoke

with a species of respect bordering upon veneration. He considered
him as one of those few great leaders in science whose discoveries
and services can never be forgotten: whose fame, instead of
diminishing, is destined to be augmented, with the progress of time. I
had many opportunities of being witness to the exalted opinion which
he entertained of the immortal British philosopher. He read Dr.
Bancroft’s objections to some parts of Sir Isaac’s theory of colours,
with a firm conviction, that the Newtonian principles were still
unshaken: and I well remember, that he once referred me to a paper
which he had published, in one of our magazines, in answer to some
objections which the late Dr. Witherspoon had urged against some of
the theories of Newton.

It has been observed by a celebrated writer, that mathematicians

in general read but little of each other’s works. This remark, if I
mistake not, is very strongly illustrated in Mr. Rittenhouse. However it
may have been in his earlier age, I am confident that during the last
thirteen years of his life, when my intercourse with him was great,
and indeed but little interrupted; I am confident, that at this matured
and auspicious era of his life, our friend was not a laborious student.
He looked into many books, and he often passed quickly from one
kind of reading to another: from philosophy to poetry; from poetry
perhaps to philosophy again. His reading may be said to have been
desultory. I have little doubt that this rather irregular manner of
reading was, in some measure, the result of his extreme delicacy of
constitution, which rendered a more unvaried application to any one
kind of reading, irksome and oppressive. Often have I seen him lay
down his book or pen, to recline upon his sopha, the circumscribed
flush upon his cheeks plainly indicating the physical state of his
feelings. A short repose would enable him to return to his studies
again.

Mr. Rittenhouse’s application to books, had, no doubt, been more

regular and constant in the earlier part of his life; before I knew him
well, or before I had accustomed myself to watch the progress of his
mind. He was, certainly, profoundly, acquainted with the Principia
and other writings of Newton, which he read partly in the original,
and partly through the medium of translation. And although, within
the period of my better acquaintance with him, his reading I have
said, was not intense, he suffered no important discovery in
philosophy to escape his notice. Although his own library was small,
he had ample opportunities, through the medium of the valuable
library belonging to the Philosophical Society, and other collections
in Philadelphia, of observing the progress of his favourite studies in
Europe. He took much interest in the discoveries of Mr. Herschel,
whose papers he eagerly read as they arrived from Europe: and I
well remember the time (in 1785) when he was engaged in reading
Scheel’s work on Fire, which had recently appeared, in an English
dress. He then assured me, that some of this great Swedish
philosopher’s notions concerning the nature and the laws of heat,
had long before suggested themselves to his mind.

The chemical discoveries of Crawford and Priestley solicited some

of Mr. Rittenhouse’s attention, about the year 1785-1786, and for
some time after. The brilliant discoveries of Priestley, in particular,
were not unknown to him. Upon the arrival of this illustrious
philosopher in Philadelphia, in 1794, Mr. Rittenhouse stood foremost
among the members of the Philosophical Society in publicly
welcoming the exiled philosopher to the country which he had
chosen as the asylum of his declining years; and in expressing his
high sense of his estimable character, and of the vast accessions
which he had brought to science. I often met Dr. Priestley at the
house of our friend. Their regard for each other was mutual. It is to
be regretted that their immediate intercourse with each other could
not be more frequent. Priestley had unfortunately chosen the
wilderness, instead of the capital or its vicinity, as his place of
residence: and Rittenhouse, alas! did not live two years after the
arrival of Priestley in America.

On the death of Mr. Rittenhouse, Dr. Priestley wrote me a letter of

condolence on the great loss which the publick had sustained; on the
irreparable loss which I, in particular, had suffered. When the Doctor
afterwards returned from Northumberland to Philadelphia, he
discovered much solicitude to know from me Mr. Rittenhouse’s
religious sentiments, and the manner and circumstances of his
death; and he evinced no small satisfaction in receiving from me that
relation which I have already given you, of the last hours, and of the
last words, of one of the best of men.

Mr. Rittenhouse had not studied natural history as a science: but

to some of the branches of this science he had paid particular
attention; and upon some of them he was capable of conversing with
the ablest, and the most experienced. In Botany, he was not
acquainted with the scientific or classical names: but the habits, and
in many instances, the properties of plants were known to him. I well
recollect how great were his pleasure and satisfaction, in
contemplating the Flora of the rich hills of Weeling, and other
branches of the Ohio, when I accompanied him into those parts of
our union, in the year 1785. In this wilderness, he first fostered my
love and zeal for natural history. Upon his return from the woods, in
the month of October, he brought with him, as ornaments to his
garden, many of the transmontain plants of the state of
Pennsylvania: and long before I knew that it grew wild in the vicinity
of Philadelphia, upon the banks of his native Schuylkill, he had
naturalized in his garden, the beautiful Silene virginica, which he
designated with the name of “Weeling Star.”

It is a fact, that in the last months of his life he devoted a good

deal of his time to an examination of the structure of the most
important organs of plants. Acquainted with that doctrine which
forms the basis of the sexual system, he was fond of examining
plants during the period of their inflorescence: and I remember, with
what apparent pleasure, he pointed out to me the tube in the styles
of some of the plants which grew in his garden.

He had made many observations upon the buds of trees, some of

which I think were new. I regret that the memorandums which he
kept of these observations have not been found among his papers.

Not fifteen days before his death, he had finished the perusal of a
German translation of Rousseau’s beautiful letters on Botany, which I
had put into his hands.

Mr. Rittenhouse, like Newton and many other men of great talents,
employed much of his time in the perusal of works on the subject of
natural and revealed religion. This was, I think, more especially the
case in the latter part of his life. Among other books which I could
mention, I well recollect that he read the Thoughts of the celebrated
French philosopher Pascall: and he acknowledged, that he read
them with pleasure. But that pleasure, he observed to me, was
diminished, when he learned, what was often the state of Pascall’s
mind:—a state of melancholy and gloom: and sometimes even of
mental derangement. At the time of his death, the American
Philosopher was engaged in the perusal of Mosheim’s Ecclesiastical
History: and he had just before finished the perusal of the
Meditations of the Emperor Marcus Antoninus; that excellent work,
replete with the sublimest morality, and with much of a sublime
religion.

About three weeks before his death, I had put into his hands the
first volume of Dr. Ferguson’s Elements of Moral and Political
Science. I took the liberty of particularly directing his attention to the
last chapter of the volume: the chapter on the future state. He read it
with so much satisfaction, that he afterwards sent it to his elder
daughter, with a request that she would peruse it.

The benevolent dispositions of our friend were well known to you.

You have, doubtless, done justice to this portion of his character; yet
permit me to mention a few detached facts, which have came under
my own immediate notice, and the relation of which may serve to
augment even your respect and veneration for Mr. Rittenhouse.

The year 1793 is memorable in the history of Philadelphia. During

the prevalence of the yellow fever, in the summer of that year, Mr.
Rittenhouse wrote to me a note requesting me to visit a number of
poor people, in his vicinity, labouring under the malignant fever; and
making it a condition of my attendance upon them, that I should
charge him for my services.

In the month of March of the same year, I had a good deal of

conversation with Mr. Rittenhouse, on the subject of penal laws. He
did not think that the late judge Bradford, whose essay on this
subject he greatly admired, and recommended to my perusal, was
too lenient in his views of the subject. He observed, that although he
had often served on juries, he thanked God, that he never had in any
case where life and death were immediately involved; observing, that
his conscience would ever reproach him, if he had, in any instance,
given his verdict for death. “Of all murders (he added) legal murders
are the most horrid.” He did not think that death ought to be the
punishment for any crime.

The union of sensibility with benevolence is frequently observed.

The sensibility of Rittenhouse was exquisitely nice; perhaps, I might
say, it was somewhat morbid. In a conversation which I had with him
on the subject of the analogies between animals and vegetables,
when I had observed to him, that the further we push our inquiries
into this interesting subject, the more reason we have for supposing,
that those two series of living beings constitute, as many eminent
naturalists have supposed, but one vast family, he said it appeared
so to him, but he hoped it would never be discovered that vegetables
are endowed with sensibility. “There is, he observed, already too
much of this in the world.”

His religion was sublime and pure. It had no tincture of superstition

or credulity. Accustomed, from an early period of his life, to
contemplate the largest and the smallest objects of Creation; and
with respect to the former to view their arrangement and harmony in
the construction of a system of immeasurable extent; in these
objects and in these places, he beheld one of the revelations of our
Creator. He could not be insensible of the ills, infirmities, and
miseries of human life, and even of the life of inferior animals. But
still he discovered, as he often observed to me, the existence and
even the dominion of much benevolence through the world. He was
wont to consider our benevolent dispositions, and our virtuous
affections, as among the strongest proofs of the existence of a
Creator. These dispositions, these affections, and our intellectual
powers, are the genuine emanations of a God.

Benjamin Smith Barton.

Philadelphia, December, 1813.

Letter from Lady Juliana Penn to the Rev. Peter Miller, Ephrata.

Septr. 29th. 1774.

Sir,

Your very respectable character would make me ashamed to

address you with words merely of form. I hope therefore you will not
suspect me of using any such, when I assure you I received the
favour of your letter with very great pleasure. And permit me, sir, to
join the thanks I owe to those worthy women, the holy sisters at
Ephrata, with those I now present to you, for the good opinion you,
and they, are pleased to have of me. I claim only that of respecting
merit, where I find it; and of wishing an increase in the world, of that
piety to the Almighty, and peace to our fellow-creatures, that I am
convinced is in your hearts: and, therefore, do me the justice to
believe, you have my wishes of prosperity here, and happiness
hereafter.

I did not receive the precious stone, you were so goad to send me,
till yesterday. I am most extremely obliged to you for it. It deserves to
be particularly distinguished on its own, as well as the giver’s
account. I shall keep it with a grateful remembrance of my
obligations to you.

Mr. Penn, as well as myself, were much obliged to you for

remarking to us, that the paper you wrote on, was the manufacture
of Ephrata: It had, on that account, great merit to us; and he has
desired our friend, Mr. Barton, to send him some specimens of the
occupation of some of your society. He bids me say, that he rejoices
to hear of your and their welfare.

It is I that should beg pardon for interrupting your quiet, and

profitable moments, by an intercourse so little beneficial as mine; but
trust your benevolence will indulge this satisfaction to one who
wishes to assure you, sir, that she is, with sincere regard, your
obliged and faithful well-wisher,

Juliana Penn.

Mr. Peter Miller, President of the Cloister at Ephrata.

To the Memory of the Honourable Thomas Penn, Esq. who died

March 21. 1775.

Peace, worthy shade! Peace to thy virtuous soul;

Life’s contest past, thou now hast gain’d the goal,
Destin’d for honest innate truth, like thine,
Where moral goodness rises to divine.
True to thy friendship, sacred to each trust,
In every duty most exactly just:
A princely wealth fill’d not thy heart with pride,
Thou nobly cast the glitt’ring bait aside;
Made it subservient to some useful aim,
 Some gen’rous purpose, or some proper claim:
As bounteous streams in pleasing currents glide,
It roll’d, refreshing, like some charming tide;
Cheer’d the lone widow in her humble dome,
And scatter’d comfort o’er her lonely home.
Thy guardian angel snatch’d thee from below,
E’er Pennsylvania was consign’d to woe:
Thou now may’st view, without one kindred tear,
What we deem harsh, oppressive and severe;—
Life’s motley picture, at one view, may’st scan,—
Unwind its tangled, complicated plan,—
Where this great truth is clearly understood,
That “partial evil’s universal good.”
In broken parts, man the dark system spies,
While all lies open to celestial eyes;
The links, united, of our scatter’d chain,
Shew why Penn suffer’d tedious years of pain,—
Shew why one patient virtuous mind doth mourn,
And why sweet Peace is from a people torn.
For, individuals of earth’s humble vale
Mount, in gradation, on a heav’nly scale:
Yet Virtue, only, has a charm in death;
Wealth droops his plumes, as man resigns his breath;
Its social merits can’t ascend the skies,
Terrestrial substance can’t to heav’n arise;
Too gross to enter the abodes divine,
In earthly darkness it can only shine.

Letter from General Washington to the Writer of these Memoirs.

Mount Vernon, Sep. 7th. 1788.

Sir,

At the same time I announce to you the receipt of your obliging

letter of the 28th of last month, which covered an ingenious essay on
Heraldry, I have to acknowledge my obligations for the sentiments
your partiality has been indulgent enough to form of me, and my
thanks for the terms in which your urbanity has been pleased to
express them.

Imperfectly acquainted with the subject, as I profess myself to be;

and persuaded of your skill, as I am; it is far from my design to
intimate an opinion, that Heraldry, Coat-Armour, &c, might not be
rendered conducive to public and private uses, with us,—or, that
they can have any tendency unfriendly to the purest spirit of
Republicanism: on the contrary, a different conclusion is deducible
from the practice of Congress and the States; all of which have
established some kind of Armorial Devices, to authenticate their
official instruments. But, sir, you must be sensible, that political
sentiments are very various among the people in the several states;
and that a formidable opposition to what appears to be the prevailing
sense of the Union, is but just declining into peaceable
acquiescence. While, therefore, the minds of a certain portion of the
community (possibly from turbulent or sinister views) are, or affect to
be, haunted with the very spectre of innovation;—while they are
indefatigably striving to make the credulity of the less-informed part
of the citizens subservient to their schemes, in believing that the
proposed General Government is pregnant with the seeds of
Discrimination, Oligarchy and Despotism;—while they are
clamourously endeavouring to propagate an idea, that those whom
they wish, invidiously, to designate by the name of the “well-born,”
are meditating in the first instance to distinguish themselves from
their compatriots, and to wrest the dearest privileges from the bulk of
the people; and while the apprehensions of some, who have
demonstrated themselves the sincere, but too jealous, friends of
Liberty, are feelingly alive to the effects of the actual Revolution and
too much inclined to coincide with the prejudices above described,—
it might not perhaps be advisable to stir any question that would tend
to reanimate the dying embers of faction, or blow the dormant spark
of jealousy into an inextinguishable flame. I need not say, that the
deplorable consequences would be the same, allowing there should
be no real foundation for jealousy: (in the judgment of sober reason,)
as if there were demonstrable, even palpable, causes for it.
 I make these observations with the greater freedom, because I
have once been a witness to what I conceived to have been a most
unreasonable prejudice, against an innocent institution: I mean, the
Society of the Cincinnati. I was conscious that my own proceedings
on that subject were immaculate. I was also convinced, that the
members,—actuated by motives of sensibility, charity and patriotism,
—were doing a laudable thing, in erecting that memorial of their
common services, sufferings and friendships;—and I had not the
most remote suspicion, that our conduct therein would have been
unprofitable, or unpleasing to our countrymen. Yet have we been
virulently traduced, as to our designs: and I have not even escaped
being represented as short-sighted, in not foreseeing the
consequences,—or wanting in patriotism, for not discouraging an
establishment, calculated to create distinctions in society and
subvert the principles of a republican government. Indeed, the
phantom seems now to be pretty well laid; except on certain
occasions,—when it is conjured up, by designing men, to work their
own purposes upon terrified immaginations:—You will recollect there
have not been wanting, in the late political discussions, those who
were hardy enough to assert, that the proposed General
Government was the wicked and traitorous fabrication of the
Cincinnati!

At this moment of general agitation and earnest solicitude, I should

not be surprised to hear a violent outcry raised, by those who are
hostile to the New Constitution, that the proposition contained in your
paper had verified their suspicions, and proved the design of
establishing unjustifiable discriminations. Did I believe that to be the
case, I should not hesitate to give it my hearty disapprobation. But I
proceed on other grounds:—Although I make not the clamour of
credulous, disappointed, or unreasonable men, the criterion of Truth;
yet, I think, their clamour might have an ungracious influence at the
present critical juncture: and, in my judgment, some respect should
not only be paid to prevalent opinions,—but even some sacrifices
might innocently be made to well meant prejudices, in a popular
government. Nor could we hope the evil impression would be
sufficiently removed, should your Account, and Illustrations, be found
adequate to produce conviction on candid and unprejudiced minds.

For myself, I can readily acquit you of having any design of

facilitating the setting up an “Order of Nobility:”—I do not doubt the
rectitude of your intentions. But, under the existing circumstances, I
would willingly decline the honour you have intended me, by your
polite Inscription; if there should be any danger of giving serious
pretext (however ill-founded in reality) for producing or confirming
jealousy and dissention, in a single instance; when harmony and
accommodation are most essentially requisite to our public
prosperity,—perhaps, to our national existence.

My remarks, you will please to observe, go only to the expediency,

not to the merits of the proposition: what may be necessary and
proper hereafter, I hold myself incompetent to decide; as I am but a
private citizen. You may, however, rest satisfied, that your
composition is calculated to give favourable impressions of the
science, candour and ingenuity, with which you have handled the
subject; and that, in all personal considerations, I remain with great
esteem, Sir, your most obedient and most humble servant,

Go. Washington.

Wm. Barton, Esq.

Dr. Benjamin Rush.

The foregoing Memoirs were entirely completed and prepared for

the press, before the decease of this Professor occurred; as is
mentioned in the preface.

Benjamin Rush was born in the county of Philadelphia, on the

twenty-fourth day of December, 1745, O.S. Having graduated in the
Arts at Princeton College, in the autumn of the year 1760, and
afterwards studied medicine under the direction of the late John
Redman, M. D. of Philadelphia, he completed his medical education
at the University of Edinburgh; where he received the degree of
Doctor in Medicine, in the spring of 1768. Returning to Philadelphia
in the summer of 1769, he was, on the 31st of July, in that year,
appointed Professor of Chemistry, in the College of Philadelphia; that
chair having been supplied for some time before, by the late John
Morgan, M. D. F. R. S. &c. About twenty years after this appointment
(viz. in 1789), he succeeded Dr. Morgan in the Professorship of the
Theory and Practice of Physic, in the same College: and in the year
1791, on the union of that College with the University of
Pennsylvania, he was chosen Professor of the Institutes and
Practice of Physick, &c. in the conjoint institution.

At divers times, and on various occasions, his talents were

employed in affairs of political concern. Besides having held, at
different periods, several other public stations, he was appointed a
member of Congress for Pennsylvania, on the 20th of July, 1776:
when he, together with some of his colleagues, appointed at the
same time, subscribed the Declaration of American Independence;
which great national act had received the sanction of congress, and
been generally signed by the members, sixteen days before.

He died of a typhus fever, in Philadelphia, on the 19th day of April,

1813; being then advanced a few months beyond the sixty-seventh
year of his age.

At the time of his decease, Dr. Rush was Professor of the

Institutes of Medicine, of the Theory and Practice of Physic, and of
Clinical Medicine, in the University of Pennsylvania: to which chair,
vacated by his death, Dr. Benjamin Smith Barton, Professor of
Materia Medica, Natural History and Botany, in the same institution,
was elected in the month of July, 1813.
 FINIS.

A1. The reader will find a very learned and interesting dissertation
on the astronomy of these and other nations of antiquity, in Lalande’s
Astronomie, liv. ii. W. B.

A2. Our orator might well pass on, without noticing more
particularly the fabulous annals of the Chaldeans. They assigned to
the reigns of their ten dynasties, 432 thousand years: and Lalande
observes, that this number, 432, augmented by two or by four
noughts, frequently occurs in antiquity. This prodigious number of
years expresses, according to the notions of the inhabitants of India,
the duration of the life of a symbolical cow: in the first age, this cow,
serving as a vehicle for innocence and virtue, advances with a firm
step upon the earth, supported by her four feet; in the second, or
silver age, she becomes somewhat enfeebled, and walks on only
three feet; during the brazen, or third age, she is reduced to the
necessity of walking on two; finally, during the iron age, she drags
herself along; and, after having lost, successively, all her legs, she
recovers them in the succeeding period, all of them being
reproduced in the same order.

The Bramins thus make up their fabulous chronological account of

the age of the world; viz.

The duration of the first age, 1,728,000 years

The second 1,296,000 do.
The third 864,000 do.
The fourth will continue 432,000 do.
Making the total duration of the world 4,320,000 years.

Mr. Lalande remarks, that these four ages have a relation to the
numbers 4, 3, 2, 1, which seem to announce some other thing than
an historical division. Therefore, to give this fabulous duration of the
world some semblance of truth. Mr. Bailly[A2a] rejects, in the first
place, the fourth age, of which, at present, (that is, when Lalande
wrote,) only 4887 years have passed: the residue of this duration
could not be considered by Bailly as any thing more than a reverie:
and as for the three first ages, he takes the years for days; in order
to shew, that, in reality, they reckoned by days, before they
computed by solar years. By these means, Bailly has reduced the
pretensions of the people of India to 12,000 years; and he identifies
this calculation for the Indians with that of the Persians, who give,
likewise, 12,000 years for the duration of the world. The accordance
thus produced in the two chronologies, seemed to Bailly to
strengthen the authenticity of the recital; and makes it appear, that
these notions prevailed alike among the Egyptians and the Chinese.

Such are the data, such the calculations, and such the reasoning
of Mr. Bailly, on this subject.

But, although Mr. Lalande has noticed the retrograde series of the
progressive numbers (1,) 2, 3, 4, in the Asiatic account of the age of
the world, a kind of mysterious constitution of the amount of the
years, in the several ages which make up the entire sum of its
duration, seems to have escaped the observation of that acute
philosopher; and probably the same circumstance passed also
unnoticed by Mr. Bailly: it may be considered as a species of
chronological abracadabra, engendered in the prolific brain of some
eastern philosopher: the following is the circumstance here meant. It
will be perceived, in the first place, that the arrangement of the
numerical figures, in making up the years allotted to the fourth age of
the world, is apparently artificial, and therefore, probably, altogether
arbitrary. It will then be seen, that the number of years in the third
age is double the amount of those in the fourth; that those in the
second is made up by adding together the years in the fourth and
third ages; and, that those in the first age are constituted by an
addition of the number of years in the fourth and second ages. This
being the fact, it does not seem to bear out Mr. Bailly, in his
hypothesis, and the calculations founded on it. W. B.
A2a. Mr. Bailly was the author of a History of Ancient and modern Astronomy.
His Essay on the Theory of Jupiter’s Satellites, which is said to be a valuable
treatise, was published in the year 1766. Both works are in the French language,
and were printed in France.

A3. Lalande observes that Mr. Bailly has gone back, in his
astronomical researches, to the first traditions of an antedeluvian
people, among whom there remained scarcely any traces of such
knowledge; and that he has presented us, in his work, with ingenious
conjectures and probabilities; or, more properly, appearances of
truth, (“vraisemblables,”) written with many charms of extensive
information. But, according to Mr. Lalande himself, all the ancient
astronomy down to the time of Chiron, which was about fourteen
centuries before the Christian era, may with probability be reduced to
the examining of the rising of some stars at different times of the
year, and the phases of the moon; since, long after that period, as
this great astronomer remarks, the Chaldeans and Egyptians yet
knew nothing of either the duration or the inequalities of the
planetary movements. W. B.

A4. See the preceding note.

A5. Some of the constellations appear to have been named, even

before the time of Moses, who was born 1571 years before Christ:
but, probably, most of them received their names about the time of
the Argonautic expedition, which took place in the year 1263, B. C

Hesiod and Homer who were co-temporaries, or, at least,

flourished nearly at the same time, that is to say, about nine
centuries before the Christian era, mention several of the
constellations; and, among the rest, the Bear and the Hyades: and it
is noticed by Mr. Lalande, that La Condamine says the Indians on
the river Amazons gave to the seven stars in the Hyades, the name
of the Bull’s-head, as we do; and that Father Lasitau tells us, the
Iroquois called that assemblage of stars to which we give the name
of the Bear, by the same name; and named the polar star “the star
that does not move.”

These are interesting facts. There is not the least resemblance,

whatever, in the two constellations which have been mentioned, to
the animals whose names they bear. Is it not, then, a matter of great
curiosity, as well as one which may prove important in its result, to
enquire, why two great tribes of uncivilized men, (supposed, by
some, to be aborigines,) in the northern and southern sections of the
western hemisphere, should apply the same denominations to two
assemblages of stars, by which those constellations were known to
Hesiod and Homer, if not earlier, and at least twenty-five hundred
years before? W. B.

A6. Hipparchus (of Nicæa, in Bithynia,) was a very celebrated

mathematician and astronomer of antiquity. Mr. Lalande styles him
the most laborious and most intelligent astronomer of antiquity, of
whom we have any record; and asserts, that the true astronomy
which has come down to us, originated with him. He divided the
heavens into forty-eight (some say forty-nine) constellations, and
assigned names to the stars. He is also said to have determined
latitude and longitude and to have computed the latter from the
Canaries; and he is supposed to be the first who, after Thales,
calculated eclipses with some degree of accuracy: but he makes no
mention of comets. Hipparchus died one hundred and twenty five
years before the Christian era. W. B.

A7. Friar Bacon is said to have been almost the only astronomer
of his age; he informs us that there were then but four persons in
Europe who had made any considerable proficiency in the
mathematics.

A8. Regiomontanus was born in the year 1436, at Kœnigsberg, a

town of Franconia, subject to the house of Saxe-Weimar. His real
name was John Müller: but he assumed the name of Regiomontanus
from that of the place of his nativity, which signifies Regius Mons.

This astronomer, who was greatly celebrated in his time, was the
first, according to Lalande, who calculated good Almanacks; which
he had composed for thirty successive years; viz. from 1476 to 1506.
In these (which were all published at Nuremberg in 1474, two years
before his death,) he announced the daily longitudes of the planets,
their latitudes, their aspects, and foretold all the eclipses of the sun
and moon; and these ephemerides were received with uncommon
interest by all nations. After noticing these, Lalande mentions the
ephemerides which are published annually at Bologna, Vienna,
Berlin, and Milan; but he pronounces the Nautical Almanack, of
London, to be the most perfect ephemeris that was ever published.
Regiomontanus compiled several other works, which greatly
promoted his reputation, He died in 1476, at the age of forty years.
W. B.

A9. See some interesting particulars respecting this great man in

Lord Buchan’s account of the Tomb of Copernicus, and in the note
thereto, inserted in the Appendix. W. B.

A10. Tycho-Brahé, as Lalande remarks, was the first who, by the

accuracy and the number of his observations, prepared the way for
the renewal of astronomy. The theories, the tables, and the
discoveries of Kepler, are founded on his observations; and Lalande
thinks, that their names, after those of Hipparchus and Copernicus,
ought to be transmitted with immortal honour to posterity.

Tycho was born in the year 1546, at Knudsturp in Scania in

Denmark, of a noble family, which subsisted also in Sweden under
the name of Brahé, and to which the marshal count Lœwendahl was
allied. He died in 1601, at the age of fifty-five years.

Frederick II, king of Denmark, gave to Tycho the little island of

Huen, called in Latin Venusin, towards the Sound, and about ten
leagues, northward, from Copenhagen: where that prince erected for
him a castle, named Uraniberg, and an observatory attached to it,
completely furnished with the best instruments. Yet only fifty-one
years after the death of Tycho, Mr. Huet, whose curiosity led him to
visit a place so celebrated could find no vestige of the observatory.
One solitary old man, who yet retained some recollection of it, told
him that the tempestuous winds to which they were subject along the
Sound, had demolished it. Even the name of Tycho was then
unknown in that savage island, as Mr. Lalande indignantly styles it:
and Mr. Picard, who was sent by the French academy, in 1671, to
ascertain the exact situation of the observatory, was obliged to have
the earth dug away, in order to discover its foundation. W. B.

A11. “Certain it is,” says the learned and pious Dr. Samuel Clarke
(in his Discourse on the Evidences of Nat. and Rev. Religion,) “and
this is a great deal to say, that the generality, even of the meanest
and most vulgar and ignorant people,” (among Christians,) “have
truer and worthier notions of God, more just and right apprehensions
concerning his attributes and perfections, deeper sense of the
difference of good and evil, a greater regard to moral obligations and
to the plain and more necessary duties of life, and a more firm and
universal expectation of a future state of rewards and punishments,
than, in any heathen country, any considerable number of men were
found to have had.”

In like manner, Archdeacon Paley (in his View of the Evidences of

Christianity) observes:—“Christianity, in every country in which it is
professed, has obtained a sensible, although not a complete
influence, upon the public judgment of morals. And this is very
important. For without the occasional correction which public opinion
receives, by referring to some fixed standard of morality, no man can
foretell into what extravagances it might wander.” “From the first
general notification of Christianity to the present day,” says the same
ingenious writer, “there have been in every age many millions,
whose names were never heard of, made better by it, not only in
their conduct, but in their dispositions; and happier, not so much in
their external circumstances, as in that which is inter præcordia, in
that which alone deserves the name of happiness, the tranquillity
and consolation of their thoughts. It has been since its
commencement, the author of happiness and virtue to millions and
millions of the human race.” He then asks: “Who is there, that would
not wish his son to be a Christian?” W. B.

A12. Some of the commentators inform us, that Mahomet taught

that the earth is supported by the tip of the horn of a prodigious ox,
who stands on a huge white stone; and that it is the little and almost
unavoidable motions of this ox which produce earthquakes.
 A13. Pythagoras, who was one of the most celebrated among the
Greek philosophers, in the knowledge and study of the heavens, was
born about 540 years before the Christian era. It is believed that he
was the first who made mention of the obliquity of the ecliptic, and of
the angle which this circle makes with the equator; although Pliny
attributes this discovery to Anaximander, whose birth was seventy
years earlier. Among the remarkable things which Pythagoras taught
his disciples, was the doctrine that fire, or heat, occupied the centre
of the world; it is supposed he meant to say, that the sun is placed in
the centre of the planetery system, and that the earth revolves
around him, like the other planets. He also maintained each star to
be a world; and that these worlds were distributed in an ethereal
space of infinite extent. W. B.

A14. Thales, who died about five centuries and an half before the
Christian era, in the ninety-sixth year of his age,[A14a] first taught the
Greeks the cause of eclipses, He knew the spherical form of the
earth; he distinguished the zones of the earth by the mean of the
tropicks and the polar circles; and he treated of an oblique circle or
zodiac, of a meridian which intersects all these circles in extending
north and south, and of the magnitude of the apparent diameter of
the sun.

Herodotus, Cicero, and Pliny, assert, as is noticed by Mr. Lalande,

that Thales had predicted, to the Ionians a total eclipse of the sun,
which took place during the war between the Lydians and the
Medes, But the manner in which Herodotus (who lived about one
century, only, after the time of Thales) speaks of this prediction, is so
vague, that one finds some difficulty in believing that it was fact, If it
were true, says Lalande, that Thales had actually foretold an eclipse
of the sun, it could be no otherwise, than by means of the general
period of eighteen years, of which he would have acquired a
knowledge from the Egyptians or the Chaldeans: for the period had
not yet arrived, when eclipses could be prognosticated by an exact
calculation of the motion of the moon. W. B.

A14a. But, according to Dufresnoy, he was born in the first year of the 35th
Olympiad, and died the first year of the 52d, those periods corresponding,
respectively, with the years 640 and 572, B. C.: and if so, he lived only sixty-eight
years.

A15. Alhazen was one of the greatest of the Arabian astronomers.

He went, about the year 1100, to Spain, where many of his nation
had established themselves in the eighth century, and carried thither
their knowledge of astronomy; yet, from the year 800 down to about
1300, science remained shrowded with the darkest ignorance,
throughout Europe.

Mr. Lalande observes, that the theory of Refractions is an

important one, in astronomy; although it was considered of little
consequence until the time of Alhazen. W. B.

A16. Aristotle, as though he had been of the race of the Ottomans,

thought he could not reign except he first killed all his brethren.
Insomuch as he never nameth or mentioneth an ancient author or
opinion, but to confute or reprove. Bacon. Advancement.

A17. Timocharis of Alexandria endeavoured, with Aristillus, a

philosopher of the same school, to determine the places of the
different stars in the heavens, and to trace the course of the planets.
Dr. Lempriere places him 294 years before Christ; and the Abbé
Barthelemy has inserted his name in the list of illustrious men, who
flourished in the fourth century before the Christian era: he probably
lived some time after the commencement of that century. W. B.

A18. By its peculiar situation it will continue to do so for a long

time.

A19. According to Lalande, Kepler was as celebrated in astronomy

by the consequences he drew from the observations of Tycho Brahé,
as the latter was for the immense mass of materials which he had
prepared for him: and the Abbé Delaporte (in his Voyageur François)
represents him as precursor of Descartes in opticks, of Newton in
physicks, and as a law-giver (“legislateur”) in astronomy.