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CHAPTER 6
MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING
CHAPTER OUTLINE
New Manager Self-Test: How Do You Make Decisions?
I. Types of Decisions and Problems
A. Programmed and Nonprogrammed Decisions
B. Facing Certainty and Uncertainty
New Manager Self-Test: Intolerance of Ambiguity
II. Decision-Making Models
A. The Ideal, Rational Model
B. How Managers Actually Make Decisions
C. The Political Model
III. Decision-Making Steps
A. Recognition of Decision Requirement
B. Diagnosis and Analysis of Causes
C. Development of Alternatives
D. Selection of the Desired Alternative
E. Implementation of the Chosen Alternative
F. Evaluation and Feedback
IV. Personal Decision Framework
V. Why Do Managers Make Bad Decisions?
VI. Innovative Decision Making
A. Start with Brainstorming
B. Use Hard Evidence
C. Engage in Rigorous Debate
D. Avoid Groupthink
E. Know When to Bail
F. Do a Postmortem
ANNOTATED LEARNING OUTCOMES

After studying this chapter, students should be able to:
1. Explain why decision making is an important component of good management.
Every organization grows, prospers, or fails as a result of decisions made by its managers.
Managers are often referred to as decision makers. Good decision making is a vital part of good
management. Decisions determine how the organization solves its problems, allocates resources,
and accomplishes its objectives. Decision making is not easy. It must be done amid
ever-changing factors, unclear information, and conflicting points of view. Plans and strategies
are arrived at through decision making. The better the decision making, the better the strategic
planning.
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Managerial Decision Making •
2. Discuss the difference between programmed and nonprogrammed decisions and the decision
characteristics of certainty and uncertainty.
Programmed decisions involve situations that have occurred often enough to enable decision
rules to be developed and applied in the future. Once managers formulate decision rules,
subordinates and others can make the decision, freeing managers for other tasks.
Nonprogrammed decisions are made in response to situations that are unique, are poorly defined
and largely unstructured, and have important consequences for the organization. Many
nonprogrammed decisions involve strategic planning because uncertainty is great and decisions
are complex.
Every decision situation can be organized on a scale according to the availability of information
and the possibility of failure. Certainty means that all the information the decision maker needs
is fully available. However, few decisions are certain in the real world. Most contain some
uncertainty. Uncertainty means that managers know which goals they wish to achieve, but
information about alternatives and future events is incomplete.
3. Describe the ideal, rational model of decision making and the political model of decision
making.
The classical model of decision making is considered to be normative, which means it defines
how a decision maker should make decisions. It is based on rational economic assumptions and
manager beliefs about what ideal decision making should be. It does not describe how managers
actually make decisions so much as it provides guidelines on how to reach an ideal outcome for
the organization. The classical model is most valuable when applied to programmed decisions
and to decisions characterized by certainty or risk because information is available and
probabilities can be calculated. The classical model is often associated with high performance
for organizations in stable environments.
The political model of decision making is useful for making nonprogrammed decisions when
conditions are uncertain, information is limited, and managers may disagree about what goals to
pursue or what course of action to take. The political model closely resembles the real
environment in which most managers and decision makers operate. Managers often engage in
coalition building for making complex organizational decisions. Coalition building is the
process of forming alliances among managers. The inability of managers to build coalitions
often makes it difficult or impossible for managers to get their decisions implemented. This
model is associated with high performance in unstable environments in which decisions must be
made rapidly and under more difficult conditions.
4. Explain the process by which managers actually make decisions in the real world.
The administrative model describes how managers actually make decisions such as those
characterized by nonprogrammed decisions, uncertainty, and ambiguity. The administrative
model is considered to be descriptive. It assumes that managers do not have the time or
resources to make the optimal decision and therefore will be satisfied with the first decision that
meets the minimal criteria. Intuition based on past practice and experience is often used in this
model to make decisions. The application of the administrative model has been associated with
high performance in unstable environments in which decisions must be made rapidly and under
more difficult conditions.
5. Identify the six steps used in managerial decision making.
Whether a decision is programmed or nonprogrammed, and regardless the manager follows the
classical, political, or administrative model of decision making, six steps typically are associated
with effective decision-making processes. These six steps are:
• recognition of decision requirement;
• diagnosis and analysis of causes;
• development of alternatives;
• selection of desired alternative;
• implementation of chosen alternative; and
• evaluation and feedback.
6. Describe four personal decision styles used by managers, and explain the biases that
frequently cause managers to make bad decisions.
The directive style is used by people who prefer simple, clear-cut solutions to problems.
Managers with an analytical style like to consider complex solutions based on as much data as
they can gather. People who tend toward a conceptual style also like to consider a broad amount
of information. The behavioral style is characterized by having a deep concern for others as
individuals.
Most bad decisions are errors in judgment that originate in the human mind’s limited capacity
and in the natural biases managers display during decision making. Awareness of the following
six biases can help managers make more enlightened choices:
Being influenced by initial impressions. The mind often gives disproportionate weight to the
first information it receives when considering decisions. These initial impressions act as an
anchor to subsequent thoughts and judgments. Past events and trends also act as anchors. Giving
too much weight to the past can lead to poor forecasts and misguided decisions.
Justifying past decisions. People don’t like to make mistakes, so they continue to support a
flawed decision in an effort to justify or correct the past.
Seeing what you want to see. People frequently look for information that supports their existing
instinct or point of view and avoid information that contradicts it, affecting where they look for
information as well as how they interpret the information they find.
Perpetuating the status quo. Managers may base decisions on what has worked in the past and
fail to explore new options, dig for additional information, or investigate new technologies.
Being influenced by emotions. Managers make better decision when—to the extent possible—
they take emotions out of the decision-making process.
Overconfidence. Most people overestimate their ability to predict uncertain outcomes. Before
making a decision, managers have unrealistic expectations of their ability to understand the risk
and make the right choice.
7. Identify and explain innovative techniques for decision making, including brainstorming,
evidence-based management, and after-action reviews.
One of the best known techniques for rapidly generating creative alternatives is brainstorming.
Brainstorming uses a face-to-face interactive group to spontaneously suggest a broad range of
alternatives for decision making. The keys to effective brainstorming are that people can build
on one another’s ideas, all ideas are acceptable no matter how crazy they seem, and criticism and
evaluation are not allowed. The goal is to generate as many ideas as possible.
Evidence-based decision making is founded on a commitment to examining potential biases,

seeking and examining evidence with rigor, and making informed and intelligent decisions based
on the best available facts and evidence.
An important key to better decision making under conditions of uncertainty is to encourage a

rigorous debate of the issue at hand. Good managers recognize that constructive conflict based
on different points of view can focus a problem, clarify ideas, and stimulate creative thinking. It
can also create a broader understanding of issues and alternatives, and improve broader decision
quality. Two common ways to accomplish this are having a devil’s advocate to challenge the
group’s assumptions and assertions, and engaging in point-counterpoint by giving two subgroups
competing responsibilities.
Avoiding groupthink helps groups make better decisions. Groupthink refers to the tendency of
people in groups to suppress contrary opinions. When people slip into groupthink, the desire for
harmony outweighs concerns over decision quality. Group members emphasize maintaining
unity rather than realistically challenging problems and alternatives. Some disagreement and
conflict is much healthier than blind agreement.
Managers need to know when to bail; i.e., they must be able to discern when to pull the plug on
something that isn’t working. Escalating commitment means that organizations often continue to
invest time and money in a solution despite strong evidence that it is not appropriate to do so.
Managers might block or distort negative information because they don’t want to be responsible
for a bad decision, or might not accept that their decision is wrong.
To improve decision making people review the results of their decisions, they learn valuable
lessons for how to do things better in the future. A technique adopted from the U.S. Army, the
after-action review is a disciplined procedure whereby managers review the results of decisions
to evaluate what worked, what didn’t, and how to do things better.
LECTURE OUTLINE
NEW MANAGER SELF-TEST: HOW DO YOU MAKE DECISIONS?
Most of us make decisions automatically and without realizing that people have diverse decision-
making behaviors, which they bring to management positions. New managers typically use a
different decision behavior than seasoned executives. They often start out with a more directive,
decisive, command-oriented behavior and gradually move toward more openness, diversity of
viewpoints, and interactions with others as they move up the hierarchy. This exercise helps
students determine whether they typically make decisions more like new managers or more like
senior managers.
I. TYPES OF DECISIONS AND PROBLEMS
A decision is a choice made from available alternatives. Decision making is the process of
identifying problems and opportunities and then resolving them. Decision making involves
effort both before and after the actual choice.
A. Programmed and Nonprogrammed Decisions
1. Programmed decisions involve situations that have occurred often enough to enable
decision rules to be developed and applied in the future. Once managers formulate
decision rules, subordinates and others can make decisions freeing managers for other
tasks.
2. Nonprogrammed decisions are made in response to situations that are unique,

poorly defined, largely unstructured, and likely to have important consequences for
the organization. Nonprogrammed decisions often involve strategic planning because
uncertainty is great and decisions are complex.
B. Facing Certainty and Uncertainty Exhibit 6.1
1. One difference between programmed and nonprogrammed decisions relates to the

degree of certainty or uncertainty that managers deal with in making the decision. In
a perfect world, managers have all the information necessary for making decisions.
In reality, some things are unknowable and some decisions will fail. Every decision
situation can be organized on a scale according to the availability of information and
the possibility of failure. The four positions on the scale are certainty, risk,
uncertainty, and ambiguity.
a. Certainty means that all the information the decision maker needs is fully
available. Few decisions are certain in the real world. Most contain risk or
uncertainty.
b. Risk means a decision has clear-cut objectives and good information available.
The future outcomes associated with each alternative are subject to failure;
however, enough information is available to allow the probability of a successful
outcome for each alternative to be estimated.
c. Uncertainty means managers know which goals they wish to achieve, but
information about alternatives and future outcomes is incomplete. Factors that
may affect a decision, such as price, production costs, volume, or future interest
rates, are difficult to analyze and predict. Managers may have to come up with
creative approaches to alternatives and use personal judgment to determine which
alternative is best. Many decisions made under uncertainty do not produce the
desired results, but managers face uncertainty every day.
d. Ambiguity means that the goals to be achieved or the problem to be solved is

unclear, alternatives are difficult to define, and information about outcomes is
unavailable. High ambiguous circumstances can create a wicked decision
problem, with conflicts over goals and decision alternatives, rapidly changing
circumstances, fuzzy information, and unclear linkages among decision elements.
Managers have a difficult time coming to grips with the issues and must conjure
up reasonable scenarios in the absence of clear information. Ambiguity is by far
the most difficult decision situation.
Discussion Question #3: Explain the difference between risk and ambiguity. How might
decision making differ for a risky versus an ambiguous situation?
NOTES________________________________________________________________________
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______________________________________________________________________________
NEW MANAGER SELF-TEST: INTOLERANCE OF AMBIGUITY
This exercise helps students to determine how comfortable they are when dealing with
ambiguity.
II. DECISION-MAKING MODELS Exhibit 6.2
Decisions are usually made using the classical, the administrative, or the political decision
making model. The choice of model used depends on the manager’s personal preference,
whether the decision is programmed or nonprogrammed, and the degree of uncertainty
associated with the decision.
A. The Ideal, Rational Model
1. The classical model of decision making is based on assumptions that managers

should make logical decisions that will be in the organization’s best economic
interests. The four assumptions include:
a. The decision maker operates to accomplish goals that are known and agreed upon.
b. The decision maker strives for conditions of certainty, gathering complete

information.
c. Criteria for evaluating alternatives are known.

d. The decision maker is rational and uses logic to assign values, order preferences,
evaluate alternatives, and make the decision to maximize goals.
2. The classical model is normative, defining how a decision maker should make
decisions, and providing guidelines for reaching an ideal outcome for the
organization. The value of the classical model has been to help decision makers be
more rational.
3. The classical model represents an “ideal” model of decision making that is often
unattainable by real people in real organizations. It works best when applied to
programmed decisions and to decisions characterized by uncertainty or risk because
relevant information is available and probabilities can be calculated.
Discussion Question #8: List some possible advantages and disadvantages to using computer
technology for managerial decision making.
NOTES________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
B. How Managers Actually Make Decisions
1. Bounded Rationality and Satisficing
a. The administrative model is considered to be descriptive, meaning that it

describes how managers actually make decisions rather than how they should
make them. Herbert A. Simon proposed two concepts instrumental in shaping the
administrative model: bounded rationality and satisficing.
b. Bounded rationality means people have limits, or boundaries, on the amount of

information they can process in making a decision. Because managers do not
have the time or cognitive ability to process complete information about complex
decisions, they must satisfice.
c. Satisficing means that decision makers choose the first solution alternative that
satisfies minimal decision criteria. Rather than pursue all alternatives, managers
will opt for the first solution that appears to solve the problem. The decision
maker cannot justify the time and expense of obtaining complete information.
d. According to the administrative model:
• Decision goals often are vague, conflicting, and lack consensus among
managers.
• Rational procedures are not always used, and when they are, they are confined
to a simplistic view of the problem that does not capture the complexity of
real events.
• Managers’ searches for alternatives are limited because of human,

information, and resource constraints.
• Most managers settle for a satisficing rather than a maximizing solution.
2. Intuition
a. Intuition is another aspect of administrative decision making. Intuition

represents a quick apprehension of a decision situation based on past experience
but without conscious thought. Intuitive decision making is not arbitrary or
irrational because it is based on years of practice and hands-on experience.
b. Intuition begins with recognition; when people build a depth of experience and
knowledge in a particular area, the right decision often comes quickly and
effortlessly. Research on the validity of intuition in decision making is
inconclusive, suggesting that managers should take a cautious approach to it,
applying intuition only under the right circumstances and in the right way.
Discussion Question #9: Can intuition and evidence-based decision making coexist as valid
approaches within an organization? How might managers combine their intuition with a
rational, data-driven, evidence-based approach?
NOTES________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
C. The Political Model
1. This model is for nonprogrammed decisions when conditions are uncertain,

information is limited, and there is disagreement about the goals to pursue or the
action to take. Managers often engage in coalition building for making complex
organizational decisions. A coalition is an informal alliance among managers who
support a specific goal. Coalition building is the process of forming alliances among
managers. The inability of managers to build coalitions often makes it difficult or
impossible for them to get their decisions implemented. The political model closely
resembles the real environment in which most managers and decision makers operate.
The political model begins with four basic assumptions.
a. Organizations are made up of groups with diverse interests, goals, and values.
b. Information is ambiguous and incomplete.
c. Managers do not have time, resources, or mental capacity to identify all

dimensions of the problem and process all relevant information.
d. Managers engage in the push and pull of debate to decide goals and discuss
alternatives.
2. Recent research has found rational, classical procedures to be associated with high
performance for organizations in stable environments. Administrative and political
decision-making procedures and intuition have been associated with high
performance in unstable environments when decisions must be made rapidly.
Discussion Question #4: Analyze three decisions you made over the past six months. Which of
these were programmed and which were nonprogrammed? Which model—the classical,
administrative, or political—best describes the approach you took to making each decision?
NOTES________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
III. DECISION-MAKING STEPS Exhibit 6.3
Whether a decision is programmed or nonprogrammed, and regardless of whether the manager

follows the classical, political or administrative model of decision making, six steps typically are
associated with effective decision-making processes. These six steps are:
A. Recognition of Decision Requirement
1. Managers confront a decision requirement in the form of either a problem or an

opportunity. A problem occurs when organizational accomplishment is less than
established goals. Some aspect of performance is unsatisfactory. An opportunity
exists when managers see potential accomplishments that exceed current goals.
2. Awareness of a problem or opportunity is the first step in the decision-making

sequence and requires surveillance of the internal and external environment for issues
that merit executive attention. Recognizing decision requirements is difficult because
it often means integrating information in novel ways.
B. Diagnosis and Analysis of Causes
1. Diagnosis is the step in which managers analyze the underlying causal factors
associated with the decision situation. Managers make a big mistake if they jump
right into generating alternatives without first exploring the cause of the problem
more deeply. Studies recommend that managers ask a series of questions to specify
underlying causes, including:
a. What is the state of disequilibrium affecting us?
b. When did it occur?
c. Where did it occur?
d. How did it occur?
e. To whom did it occur?

f. What is the urgency of the situation?
g. What is the interconnectedness of events?
h. What result came from which activity?
C. Development of Alternatives
1. Once the problem or opportunity has been recognized and analyzed, decision makers
begin to consider taking action. The next step is to develop possible alternative
solutions that will respond to the needs of the situation and correct the underlying
causes.
2. For a programmed decision, feasible alternatives are often available within the
organization’s rules and procedures. Nonprogrammed decisions require developing
new courses of action that will meet the needs of the company.
D. Selection of the Desired Alternative
1. The best alternative is one in which the solution best fits the firm’s overall goals and
values and achieves the desired results using the fewest resources. The manager tries
to select the choice with the least amount of risk and uncertainty. Making choices
also depends on managers’ personality factors and willingness to accept risk and
uncertainty. Risk propensity is the willingness to undertake risk with the
opportunity of gaining an increased payoff.
E. Implementation of Chosen Alternative Exhibit 6.4
1. The implementation stage involves the use of managerial, administrative, and

persuasive abilities to ensure that the chosen alternative is carried out. The success of
the chosen alternative depends on whether or not it is translated into action.
Sometimes an alternative never becomes reality because managers lack resources or
energy needed to make things happen. Communication, motivation, and leadership
skills must be used to see that the decision is carried out.
F. Evaluation and Feedback
1. In the evaluation step, decision makers gather information or feedback to determine

how well the decision was implemented and whether it achieved its goals. Feedback
is important because decision making is a continuous, never-ending process.
Feedback provides decision makers with information that can start a new decision
cycle.
2. By learning from decision mistakes, managers can turn problems into opportunities.
Discussion Question #1: You are a busy partner in a legal firm, and an experienced
administrative assistant complains of continued headaches, drowsiness, dry throat, and
occasional spells of fatigue and flu. She tells you she believes that the air quality in the building
is bad and would like something to be done. How would you respond?
NOTES________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
IV. PERSONAL DECISION FRAMEWORK Exhibit 6.5
Not all managers make decisions in the same way. These differences can be explained by the
concept of personal decision styles. Personal decision style refers to differences between people
with respect to how they perceive problems and make decisions. Research has identified four
major decision styles.
• The directive style is used by people who prefer simple, clear-cut solutions to problems.
• With an analytical style, managers like to consider complex solutions based on as much data
as they can gather.
• People who tend toward a conceptual style also like to consider a broad amount of
information.
• The behavioral style is characterized by having a deep concern for others as individuals.
Most managers have a dominant decision style. The most effective managers are able to shift
among styles as needed to meet the situation.
Discussion Question #10: What do you think is your dominant decision style? Is your style
compatible with group techniques such as brainstorming and engaging in rigorous debate?
Discuss.
NOTES________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
V. WHY DO MANAGERS MAKE BAD DECISIONS?
Even the best manager will make mistakes, but managers can increase their percentage of good
decisions by understanding some of the factors that cause people to make bad ones. Most bad
decisions are errors in judgment that originate in the human mind’s limited capacity and in the
natural biases managers display during decision making. Awareness of the following six biases
can help managers make more enlightened choices:
• Being influenced by initial impressions. The mind often gives disproportionate weight to the
first information it receives when considering decisions. These initial impressions act as an
anchor to subsequent thoughts and judgments. Past events and trends also act as anchors.
Giving too much weight to the past can lead to poor forecasts and misguided decisions.
• Justifying past decisions. People don’t like to make mistakes, so they continue to support a
flawed decision in an effort to justify or correct the past.
• Seeing what you want to see. People frequently look for information that supports their
existing instinct or point of view and avoid information that contradicts it, affecting where
they look for information as well as how they interpret the information they find.
• Perpetuating the status quo. Managers may base decisions on what has worked in the past
and fail to explore new options, dig for additional information, or investigate new
technologies.
• Being influenced by emotions. Managers make better decision when—to the extent
possible—they take emotions out of the decision-making process.
• Overconfidence. Most people overestimate their ability to predict uncertain outcomes. Before
making a decision, managers have unrealistic expectations of their ability to understand the
risk and make the right choice.
VI. INNOVATIVE DECISION MAKING
A. Start with Brainstorming
1. One of the best known techniques for rapidly generating creative alternatives is
brainstorming. Brainstorming uses a face-to-face group to spontaneously suggest a
broad range of alternatives for decision making. The keys to effective brainstorming
are that people can build on one another’s ideas, all ideas are acceptable no matter
how crazy they seem, and criticism and evaluation are not allowed. The goal is to
generate as many ideas as possible.
2. Electronic brainstorming, called brainwriting, brings people together in an

interactive group over a computer network. Recent studies show that electronic
brainstorming generates about 40 percent more ideas than individual brainstorming
alone and 25 to 200 percent more than groups.
B. Use Hard Evidence
1. Using evidence can help take emotion out of decision-making process, preventing
managers relying on faulty assumptions or point of view.
2. Evidence-based decision making means a commitment to make more informed and

intelligent decisions based on the best available facts and evidence. Managers should
be alert to potential biases, past assumptions, or intuitions and seek and exam the
evidence with rigor, thus making careful and thoughtful decision.
C. Engage in Rigorous Debate
An important key to better decision making under conditions of uncertainty is to

encourage a rigorous debate of the issue at hand. Good managers recognize that
constructive conflict based on different points of view can focus a problem, clarify ideas,
and stimulate creative thinking. It can also create a broader understanding of issues and
alternatives, and improve broader decision quality. There are several ways to stimulate
rigorous debate.
a. One way is by ensuring diversity in terms of age and gender, functional area of
expertise, hierarchical level, and experience with the business.
b. Some groups assign a devil’s advocate, who has the role of challenging the
assumptions and assertions made by the group.
c. Another approach is to have group members develop as many alternatives as they

can as quickly as they can.
d. Another approach is technique called point-counterpoint, a technique in which

two subgroups assigned competing points of view. The two groups then develop
and exchange proposals and discuss the various options until they arrive at a
common set of understandings and recommendations.
D. Avoid Groupthink
Avoiding groupthink helps groups make better decisions. Groupthink refers to the
tendency of people in groups to suppress contrary opinions. When people slip into
groupthink, the desire for harmony outweighs concerns over decision quality. Group
members emphasize maintaining unity rather than realistically challenging problems and
alternatives. Some disagreement and conflict is much healthier than blind agreement.
E. Know When to Bail
In a fast-paced environment, good manager encourages risk taking and learning from
mistakes, it also teaches a person to know when to pull the plug on something that isn’t
working. Escalating commitment means that organizations often continue to invest
time and money in a solution despite strong evidence that it is not appropriate to do so.
Managers might block or distort negative information because they don’t want to be
responsible for a bad decision, or might not accept that their decision is wrong.
F. Do a Postmortem
To improve decision making, managers need to reflect and learn from every decision they
make.
1. A technique many companies have adopted from the U.S. Army to encourage
examination of the evidence and continuous learning is the after-action review, a
disciplined procedure whereby managers invest time to review the results of decision
on a regular basis and learn from them. After implementing the decision, managers
meet to evaluate what worked, what didn’t, and how to do things better. Many
problems are solved by trial and error.
2. A similar technique was applied by managers at Lenovo called fu pan, which means
“replaying the chess board,’ reviewing every move to improve the next one.
Answers To End Of Chapter Discussion Questions

1. You are a busy partner in a legal firm and an experienced administrative assistant complains
of continued headaches, drowsiness, dry throat, and occasional spells of fatigue and flu. She
tells you she believes that the air quality in the building is bad and would like something to
be done. How would you respond?
Students should apply the decision-making steps to solve this problem. The first step is
recognition of decision requirement. The manager must determine if there truly is a problem
with the air quality that needs to be solved. Discussions with others and, if warranted, testing
the air quality should help make this determination. If a problem does indeed exist, the next
step is the diagnosis and analysis of the causes of the poor air quality. The testing may reveal
this. If needed, further tests by experts in the field should be made to determine the cause.
Once the cause has been determined, the development of alternatives to eliminate the cause
should be developed. The selection of desired alternatives is the next step during which the
risk must be considered and the pros and cons of each alternative must be weighed. After an
alternative has been chosen, the chosen alternative should be implemented. After an
appropriate time evaluation of the alternative should be made and feedback provided.
2. Managers at Gap Inc., a once- popular retail chain, are reported to have made a series of
decisions that hurt the company: they expanded so rapidly that the chain lost touch with
customers; they tried to copy the successful approach of rivals rather than charting their own
course; they cut quality to reduce costs; they shifted from one fashion approach to another as
each failed to appeal to customers, and so on. What techniques would you recommend Gap
managers use to improve the quality of their decisions?
Decision making is especially important to effectiveness because it underlies all manager

activity. Managers are faced with limited resources, competing demands, and a continuous
stream of problems and opportunities. As a result, managers make decisions every day—and
hence are often referred to as decision makers. They make decisions about virtually every
aspect of an organization including its strategy, structure, control systems, innovations, and
human resources. They must make decisions to perform the basic functions of planning,
organizing, motivating, and controlling. Managerial decision making ultimately determines
how well the organization solves its problems, allocates resources, and accomplishes its
objectives.
Some of the techniques that the managers of Gap can use to improve the quality of their
decisions may include:
a. Start with brainstorming
b. Use hard evidence
c. Engage in rigorous debate
d. Avoid groupthink
e. Know when to bail
f. Do a postmortem
3. Explain the difference between risk and ambiguity. How might decision making differ for a
risky versus an ambiguous situation?
Risk means that the decision maker has most of the necessary information. The objectives of
the decision are clear-cut, and alternatives can be identified. However, the future outcome of
each alternative is not known for certain, although the probability of outcomes can be
calculated, which is the source of risk. Ambiguity means the almost complete absence of
information pertaining to a decision. Managers do not agree on the objectives to be achieved
by the decision, alternatives are difficult to find, and outcomes cannot be predicted.
Decision-making approaches differ considerably for each situation. For decisions under risk,
a rational, calculative approach is preferred. The managers’ responsibility is to obtain the
available information and run necessary computations in order to predict outcomes and select
the best alternative. Decisions under ambiguity are more difficult. In these cases managers
do not have sufficient information to perform computations. They must rely on personal
judgment and experience to define alternatives and to anticipate possible outcomes of each
alternative. Under ambiguity, managers have to take a chance and push ahead with
decisions, even though they have poor information and will be wrong a substantial
percentage of the time.
4. Analyze three decisions you made over the past six months. Which of these were
programmed and which were nonprogrammed? Which model—the classical, administrative,
or political—best describes the approach you took to making each decision?
A programmed decision would refer to a situation that has occurred often enough so that a
student can use past experience and similar decision rules over and over again. Programmed
decisions are considered routine. A nonprogrammed decision would refer to a novel,
unique, and largely unstructured decision situation that requires a student to search for
possible alternatives and information and to make a decision that has not been made
previously.
An example of a programmed decision might be where to go to lunch or where to park the

car. A nonprogrammed decision could be the choice of a major field of study, a decision that
the student may have made after taking aptitude tests and investigating a number of career
choices. Although the student may already be studying for the chosen career field, whether
the decision was correct still may not be perfectly clear.
The specific decisions students choose, and the decision-making processes they used, will
determine their answers to the last part of this question, but they should be able to explain
why they believe a particular model best describes their approach.
5. What opportunities and potential problems are posed by the formation of more than one
coalition within an organization, each one advocating a different direction or alternatives?
What steps can you take as a manager to make sure that dueling coalitions result in
constructive discussion rather than dissension?
When more than one coalition forms within an organization, with each advocating a different
direction or alternative, there are significant opportunities for constructive dialogue and
enhanced decision making, but only if the coalitions are able to come together and work
toward a direction or alternative that both coalitions can support. If that does not happen, the
potential exists for serious fractures to develop among managers. The situation could
devolve into widespread backbiting and undermining of coworkers, which would lead to
substantial performance and morale problems in the organization.
If dueling coalitions develop over a single issue, relevant managers should immediately
begin working to bring the two (or more) coalitions together to work out a plan both can
accept. This may initially mean working with the coalitions individually to find common
ground that can later be emphasized in trying to work out an agreement. Once some
common ground is identified, the individual coalitions can be brought together to work out a
direction or alternative that both (all) coalitions can accept.
6. Can you think of a bad decision from your own school or work experience or from the recent
business or political news that was made in an effort to correct or justify a past decision? As
a new manager, how might you resist the urge to choose a decision alternative based on the
idea that it might correct or validate a previous decision?
Students’ descriptions of past bad decisions will obviously vary. As new managers, it will be
important for them to avoid making decisions based on the idea that they might correct or
validate previous decisions. This might be accomplished by first acknowledging that the
original decision was a mistake, which is difficult for people to do. However, once this
acknowledgment is made, managers can then move on to make decisions based on the facts
at hand rather than in an attempt to correct or validate previous decisions. Another way to
avoid making this mistake might be to have someone in the decision-making process tasked
with challenging the assumptions related to the current decision; i.e., to specifically raise the
question of whether the current decision is being made to justify some previous decision that
was in error.
7. Experts advise that most catastrophes in organizations result from a series of small problems
or mistakes. As a new, entry-level manager, how might you apply this understanding to help
your organization avoid making major mistakes?
Finding ways to compensate for inexperience in decision making is critical to identifying the
alternative most likely to succeed. A new, entry-level manager who fails to do so will soon
be marginalized or even fired as a result of making too many poor decisions. Such a person
simply does not have the requisite knowledge or wisdom to sort out the complex issues
involved in many managerial decisions.
New, entry-level managers can seek advice from a variety of coworkers as part of their
decision-making process. They can also try to research the many facets of the decision at
hand, including collecting information on how such decisions have been handled in the past.
One of the best ways to meet the challenge of inexperience is to find someone in the
organization who has substantial experience in the company and the industry who is willing
to serve as a mentor. A mentor can serve as a sounding board for the new manager, offering
suggestions for improvement of an idea or explaining why the idea should be dismissed
altogether. Mentors have substantial wisdom that they can share with new managers to help
them “learn the ropes”, including learning the ropes of decision making.
8. List some possible advantages and disadvantages to using computer technology for
managerial decision making.
Advantages of using computers in making managerial decisions would be increased

accuracy, timeliness, and reliability of information to improve managerial decision making.
A disadvantage of using computers in managerial decision making is that inputting the wrong
data produces incorrect information that will be used in substantial managerial decisions.
9. Can intuition and evidence-based decision making coexist as valid approaches within an
organization? How might managers combine their intuition with a rational, data-driven,
evidence-based approach?
Intuition or a “gut” feeling, especially where it is forthcoming from experience, can be useful
in management decision making. When time is of the essence, intuition can be a valid
predictor of decision making. Individuals can use intuition to become more creative and risk
taking in making decisions. Intuition can be combined with a rational decision-making
approach to improve decision making. A rational approach is developing a decision-making
style that is based on more complete data. This approach, when utilized, develops criteria,
alternative options, evaluation of alternatives, and attempts to improve decision making
based on more complete data. This, in turn, minimizes risks and improves decision making
when combining intuition with a rational approach.
10. What do you think is your dominant decision style? Is your style compatible with group
techniques such as brainstorming and engaging in rigorous debate? Discuss.
Students’ responses will, of course, be very different. They should, however, demonstrate an
understanding of the various decision styles.
Managers who use this style often make decisions quickly because they do not like to deal
with a lot of information and may consider only one or two alternatives. People who prefer
the directive style generally are efficient and rational and prefer to rely on existing rules or
procedures for making decisions. These students may be more comfortable with jobs in
which the work is fairly regimented and where most decisions will be programmed decisions.
People with an analytical style like to consider complex solutions based on as much data as
they can gather. These individuals carefully consider alternatives and often base their
decisions on objective, rational data from management control systems and other sources.
They search for the best possible decision based on the information available. These students
may be more comfortable in highly technical jobs where large volumes of data can be
gathered and applied to the decision-making process.
People who tend toward a conceptual style also like to consider a broad amount of
information. However, they are more socially oriented than those with an analytical style and
like to talk to others about the problem and possible alternatives for solving it. Managers
using a conceptual style consider many broad alternatives, rely on information from both
people and systems, and like to solve problems creatively. These students may be more
comfortable in jobs that involve many nonprogrammed decisions that require strong
conceptual skills.
The behavioral style is often the style adopted by managers having a deep concern for others
as individuals. Managers using this style like to talk to people one-on-one, understand their
feelings about the problem, and consider the effect of a given decision upon them. People
with a behavioral style usually are concerned with the personal development of others and
may make decisions that help others achieve their goals. These students may be more
comfortable in flatter, more participative organizations where employees are heavily
involved in decision making and are empowered to generate innovative solutions.
Apply Your Skills: Experiential Exercise

What’s Your Personal Decision Style?
Student responses will vary regarding their own decision-making style. For additional
information, one is encouraged to review decision-making styles in the chapter. Personal
decision style refers to differences among people with respect to how they perceive problems and
make decisions. A suggestion would be to discuss the four decision-making styles: directive,
analytical, conceptual, and behavioral.
Managers who use this style often make decisions quickly because they do not like to deal with a
lot of information and may consider only one or two alternatives. People who prefer the
directive style generally are efficient and rational and prefer to rely on existing rules or
procedures for making decisions.
People with an analytical style like to consider complex solutions based on as much data as they
can gather. These individuals carefully consider alternatives and often base their decisions on
objective, rational data from management control systems and other sources. They search for the
best possible decision based on the information available.
People who tend toward a conceptual style also like to consider a broad amount of information.
However, they are more socially oriented than those with an analytical style and like to talk to
others about the problem and possible alternatives for solving it. Managers using a conceptual
style consider many broad alternatives, rely on information from both people and systems, and
like to solve problems creatively.
The behavioral style is often the style adopted by managers having a deep concern for others as
individuals. Managers using this style like to talk to people one-on-one, understand their
feelings about the problem, and consider the effect of a given decision on them. People with a
behavioral style usually are concerned with the personal development of others and may make
decisions that help others achieve their goals.
Apply Your Skills: Small Group Breakout

A New Approach to Making Decisions
Managers are typically effective at focusing on problems and diagnosing what is wrong and how
to fix it when they have to make a decision. A new approach to decision making known as
outcome-directed thinking focuses on future outcomes and possibilities rather than on the causes
of the problem.
This exercise asks students to think of problems they have in their lives at the present time and
write a brief summary of the problems, then answer four questions provided in the text. Finally,
students should share their answers to the questions in small groups.
Apply Your Skills: Ethical Dilemma

The No-Show Consultant
1. Give Carpenter a month’s notice and terminate. He’s known as a good consultant, so he
probably won’t have any trouble finding a new job, and you’ll avoid any further problems
associated with his emotional difficulties and his possible alcohol problem.
Option 1 is not the course of action to take. Alcoholism is not an uncommon disease, and it
can be treated; however, the urgency of this matter is the important factor. It is important to
recognize that Andrew can have a future with this organization if he seeks help. Acceptable
behavior is an important requirement of this job.
2. Let it slide. Missing the New York appointment is Carpenter’s first big mistake. He says he
is getting things under control, and you believe that he should be given a chance to get
himself back on track.
Option 2 is not desirable. Care must be taken and concerns expressed to Andrew. He is
beginning to develop a pattern of behavior. If the alcohol abuse continues, require him to
attend a treatment program or find another job. There should be an employee assistance
program to permit Andrew to get help and external counseling.
3. Let Carpenter know that you care about what he’s going through, but insist that he take a
short paid leave and get counseling to deal with his emotional difficulties and evaluate the
seriousness of his problems with alcohol. If the alcohol abuse continues, require him to
attend a treatment program or find another job.
This is probably the best course of action. Andrew needs support and help, but cannot
continue his present pattern of behavior.
Apply Your Skills: Case for Critical Analysis

The Office
1. What mistakes do you think John Mitchell made with the way he solved the problem of
limited office space? Explain.
It seems obvious that John Mitchell settled for a satisficing rather than a maximizing solution for
the problem. His approach to decision making is based on the administrative model, which is
considered to be descriptive, meaning that it describes how managers actually make decisions
rather than how they should make them. The concept of bounded rationality and satisficing
shapes this model.
Bounded rationality means people have limits, or boundaries, on the amount of information they
can process in making a decision. Because managers do not have the time or cognitive ability to
process complete information about complex decisions, they must satisfice. Satisficing means
that decision makers choose the first solution alternative that satisfies minimal decision criteria.
Rather than pursue all alternatives, managers will opt for the first solution that appears to solve
the problem. The decision maker cannot justify the time and expense of obtaining complete
information.
Mitchell knew his decision would affect Acklen and her staff; in spite of which he ignored all the
factors and the complete information regarding the issue. He did not consider it important to
consult the matter with Acklen to pursue other possible alternatives.
2. What approach would you have used if you were Mitchell? Why?
The classical model of decision making would have been a better approach for Mitchell. This
model is considered to be normative, which means it defines how a decision maker should make
decisions. It is based on rational economic assumptions and manager beliefs about what ideal
decision making should be. It does not describe how managers actually make decisions so much
as it provides guidelines on how to reach an ideal outcome for the organization.
The classical model is most valuable when applied to programmed decisions and to decisions
characterized by certainty or risk because information is available and probabilities can be
calculated. The classical model is often associated with high performance for organizations in
stable environments. The four assumptions of this model include:
a. The decision maker operates to accomplish goals that are known and agreed upon.
b. The decision maker strives for conditions of certainty, gathering complete information.
c. Criteria for evaluating alternatives are known.
d. The decision maker is rational and uses logic to assign values, order preferences, evaluate
alternatives, and make the decision to maximize goals.
3. What are Krista Acklen’s options for responding to Mitchell’s decision? What should she do
now? Why?
Following are the possible ways in which Krista Acklen can respond to Mitchell’s decision:
a. Start with brainstorming
b. Use hard evidence

c. Engage in rigorous debate
d. Avoid groupthink
e. Know when to bail
f. Do a postmortem
One of the best known techniques for rapidly generating creative alternatives is brainstorming,
which possibly could also be the best option for Acklen to pursue now in order to come up with a
solution. Brainstorming uses a face-to-face interactive group to spontaneously suggest a broad
range of alternatives for decision making. The keys to effective brainstorming are that people can
build on one another’s ideas, all ideas are acceptable no matter how crazy they seem, and
criticism and evaluation are not allowed. The goal is to generate as many ideas as possible.
On the Job Video Case Answers

Plant Fantasies
1. Did Plant Fantasies owner Teresa Carleo follow the rational decision-making process to
launch Plant Fantasies? Explain.
According to Carleo, the decision to quit her old job and start Plant Fantasies was characterized
by whim and emotion. Her process was not consistent with the rational decision making model.
She was emotionally upset at her former employer, and she had little experience with
horticulture or operating a business. Nevertheless, she made a choice: “I just made the decision, I
just went for it,” Carleo states. In the rational decision-making process, the decision maker
strives for conditions of certainty, gathers complete information, and evaluates all known
alternatives to ensure good results.
In real management settings, however, decision making can never purely rational due to time
constraints, limited knowledge of possible alternatives, bias, and human error. In addition,
people and groups encounter decision-related problem areas like groupthink, escalating
commitment, and uncertainty. In most decision making situations, people employ bounded
rationality and end up satisficing—making a satisfactory rather than optimal decision. Satisficing
causes managers to select the first acceptable alternative that meets minimal decision criteria,
even though better alternatives may exist.
2. List an example of a programmed decision at Plant Fantasies. Identify a nonprogrammed

decision at Plant Fantasies.
A programmed decision is a decision made in any situation that has occurred often enough to
enable decision rules to be developed and applied in the future. Programmed decisions tend to
involve simple routine matters for which a manager has a familiar set of options. One
programmed decision at Plant Fantasies is the daily process of maintaining healthy plants for
clients: a maintenance manager examines plants at client location, determines if the landscape
has a healthy or unhealthy garden condition, and sends a purchase order to Teresa Carleo for new
replacement plants. This routine activity is a core function of the Plant Fantasies service. Another
example of a programmed decision is discussed when Carleo says she selects tulips for a client
that has a long history of ordering and reordering the same plants and colors.
A nonprogrammed decision is a decision made in any situation that is unique, unstructured,

unpredictable, or highly consequential. These decision situations involve complex challenges
that require creative solutions. A nonprogrammed decision at Plant Fantasies occurs whenever
Teresa Carleo has to collaborate with an outside landscape architect to install a garden. There are
many complicated and unknown factors that arise when working with an outside firm or
designer. As a result, a typical and routine garden installation may require creative thinking,
negotiation, and group consensus to get the job done.
3. How might managers at Plant Fantasies conduct the final evaluation stage of the decision-
making process when installing a new garden for a client?
Answers will vary, but maintenance teams can observe and track their progress during
installations. In addition, Teresa Carleo can conduct customer satisfaction surveys over a period
of months to ensure that clients remain satisfied with landscaping solutions. Evaluation and
feedback is an important part of the decision making process because feedback provides
managers with useful information that can precipitate a new decision cycle. If an evaluation
determines that a decision failed to meet its objectives, this information will stimulate a new
problem analysis and evaluation of alternatives.
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
The Project Gutenberg eBook of A trace of
memory
This ebook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United States
and most other parts of the world at no cost and with almost no
restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it
under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this
ebook or online at www.gutenberg.org. If you are not located in the
United States, you will have to check the laws of the country where
you are located before using this eBook.
Title: A trace of memory
Author: Keith Laumer
Illustrator: Lloyd Birmingham
Release date: November 3, 2023 [eBook #72015]
Language: English
Original publication: New York, NY: Ziff-Davis Publishing Company,

1962
Credits: Greg Weeks, Mary Meehan and the Online Distributed

Proofreading Team at http://www.pgdp.net
*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK A TRACE OF

MEMORY ***
A TRACE OF MEMORY
By KEITH LAUMER
Illustrated by BIRMINGHAM
When Legion signed on as a soldier of fortune he did

not expect to wind up as the master of a private island.
Nor did he expect to cower in ancient Druid pits ... nor
fight for his life in the great hall at Okk-Hamiloth, on
a planet galaxies away. A master story-teller sweeps
you through time and space in a novel of retribution.
[Transcriber's Note: This etext was produced from

Amazing Stories July, August, September 1962.
Extensive research did not uncover any evidence that
the U.S. copyright on this publication was renewed.]
He opened his eyes and saw a grey wall where a red light gleamed
balefully in the gloom. He lay on a utility mat on a high couch, clad in
a gown of strange purple. In his arm there burned a harsh pain, and
he saw on his skin the mark of the Hunters. Who could have dared?
He sat up, swung his legs over the side of the narrow cot ... and saw
the bodies of two men huddled on the floor, blood-splashed. Beyond,
at a doorway, lay another, and another.... What carnage was this?
Gently he rolled the nearest body on its back—and crouched rigid in
shock. Ammaerln, his friend.... Not dead, but the pulse was faint, too
faint. And the next corpse? That, too, wore a face that had been dear
to him. And the bodies at the entry—his faithful men. All were friends!
Beyond the door the ranged shelves of a library gave back not even
an echo when he called. He turned again to his dead. It was fresh
death, the blood still wet. Quickly he scanned the room, saw a
recording monitor against a wall. He fitted the neurodes to the dying
man's temples. But for this gesture of recording his life's memories,
there was nothing he could do. He must get him to a therapist and
quickly. But no one answered his calls. Was he alone in these
chambers of death?
He ran through the library to a great echoing hall beyond. This was
not the Sapphire Palace beside the Shallow Sea. The lines were
unmistakable: he was aboard a ship, a far-voyager. Why? How? He
stood uncertain. The silence was absolute.
He crossed the Great Hall and entered the observation lounge. Here
lay another dead man, by his uniform a member of the crew. He
touched a knob and the great screens glowed blue. A giant crescent
swam into focus, locked, soft green against the black of space.
Beyond it a smaller companion hung, blue-blotched, airless. What
worlds were these?
When he had ranged the vast ship from end to end he knew that he
alone still lived. Seven corpses, cruelly slashed, peopled the silent
vessel. In the control sector the communicator lights glowed but to his
call there was no answer from the strange world below.
He returned to the recording room. Ammaerln still breathed weakly.
The memory recording had been completed; all that the dying man
remembered of his long life was imprinted now in the silvery cylinder.
It remained only to color-code the trace; that he would do on his
return.
His eye was caught by a small object still projecting from an aperture
at the side of the high couch where he had wakened. It was his own
memory-trace. So he himself had undergone the Change!
He thrust the color banded cylinder into a gown pocket—then whirled
at a sound. A nest of Hunters—the swarming globes of pale light
used to track down criminals—clustered at the door; then they were
upon him.
Without a weapon, he was helpless. He must escape the ship—and
quickly! While the suffocating horde pressed close, humming in their
eagerness, he caught up the unconscious Ammaerln. The Hunters
trailed him like a luminous streamer as he ran to the shuttle boat bay.
Three shuttles lay in their cradles. He groped to a switch, his head
swimming with the sulphurous reek of his attackers. Light flooded the
bay, driving them back. He entered the lifeboat, placed the body on a
cushioned couch. Perhaps he would find help for his friend below.
It had been long since he had manned the controls of a vessel, but he
had not forgotten.
The last of life ebbed from the injured man long before they reached
the planetary surface. The boat settled gently and the lock cycled. He
looked out at a vista of ragged forest.
This was no civilized world. Only the landing-ring and the clearing
around it showed the presence of man.
There was a hollow in the earth by a square marker block at the
eastern perimeter of the clearing. He carried his friend there and
placed him in it, scraped earth over the body. He lingered for a
moment, then he rose and turned back toward the shuttle boat....
A dozen men, squat, bearded, wrapped in the shaggy hides of

beasts, stood between him and the access ladder. The tallest among
them shouted, raised a bronze sword threateningly. Others clustered
at the ladder. One scrambled up, reached the top, disappeared into
the boat. In a moment he reappeared at the opening and hurled down
an armful of small bright objects of varied shapes and textures.
Others clambered up to share the loot as the first man again
vanished within the boat. But before the foremost had gained the
entry the port closed, shutting off a terrified cry from within the shuttle
boat.
Men dropped from the ladder as it swung up. The boat rose slowly,
angling toward the west, dwindling. The savages shrank back, awed.
The man watched until the tiny blue light was lost against the sky.
CHAPTER I
The ad read: "Soldiers of fortune seeks companion in arms to share
unusual adventure. Foster, Bos 19, Mayport."
I crumpled the newspaper and tossed it in the general direction of the
wire basket beside the park bench, pushed back a slightly frayed cuff,
and took a look at my bare wrist. It was just habit; the watch was in a
hock shop in Tupelo, Mississippi. It didn't matter. I didn't have to know
what time it was.
Across the park most of the store windows were dark along the side
street. There were no people in sight; they were all home now, having
dinner. As I watched, the lights blinked off in the drug store with the
bottles of colored water in the window; that left the candy and cigar
emporium at the end of the line. I fidgeted on the hard bench and felt
for a cigarette I didn't have. I wished the old boy back of the counter
would call it a day and go home. As soon as it was dark enough, I
was going to rob his store.
I wasn't a full-time stick-up artist. Maybe that's why that nervous
feeling was playing around under my rib cage. There was really
nothing to it. The wooden door with the hardware-counter lock that
would open almost as easily without a key as with one; the sardine-
can metal box with the day's receipts in it; I'd be on my way to the
depot with fare to Miami in my pocket ten minutes after I cracked the
door. I'd learned a lot harder tricks than petty larceny back when I had
a big future ahead with Army Intelligence. That was a long time ago,
and I'd had a lot of breaks since then—none good.
I got up and took another turn around the park. It was a warm
evening, and the mosquitos were out. I caught a whiff of frying
hamburger from the Elite Cafe down the street. It reminded me that I
hadn't eaten lately. There were lights on at the Commercial Hotel and
one in the ticket office at the station. The local police force was still
sitting on a stool at the Rexall talking to the counter girl. I could see
the .38 revolver hanging down in a worn leather holster at his hip. All
of a sudden, I was in a hurry to get it over with.
I took another look at the lights. All the stores were dark now. There
was nothing to wait for. I crossed the street, sauntered past the cigar
store. There were dusty boxes of stogies in the window, and piles of
home-made fudge stacked on plates with paper doilies under them.
Behind them, the interior of the store looked grim and dead. I passed,
looked around, moved toward the door—
A black sedan eased around the corner and pulled in to the curb. A
face leaned over to look at me through lenses like the bottoms of
tabasco bottles, the hot evening air stirred, and I felt my damp shirt
cold against my back.
"Looking for anything in particular, Mister?" the cop said.
I just looked at him.
"Passing through town, are you?" he asked.
For some reason I shook my head.
"I've got a job here," I said. "I'm going to work—for Mr. Foster."
"What Mr. Foster?" The cop's voice was wheezy, but relentless, a
voice used to asking questions.
I remembered the ad—something about an adventure. Foster, Box
19. The cop was still staring at me.
"Box nineteen," I said.
He looked me over some more, then reached across and opened the
door. "Better come on down to the station house with me, Mister," he
said.
At Police Headquarters, the cop motioned me to a chair, sat behind a
desk, and pulled a phone to him. He dialled slowly, then swivelled his
back to me to talk. Insects danced around a bare light bulb. There
was an odor of stale beer and leather and unwashed bedding. I sat
and listened to a radio in the distance wailing a sad song.
It was half an hour before I heard a car pull up outside. The man who
came through the door was wearing a light suit that was neither new
nor freshly pressed, but had that look of perfect fit and taste that only
the most expensive tailoring can achieve. He moved in a relaxed way,
but with a sense of power held in reserve. At first glance I thought he
was in his middle thirties, but when he looked my way I saw the fine
lines around the blue eyes. I got to my feet. He came over to me.
"I'm Foster," he said, and held out his hand. I shook it.
"My name's Legion," I said.
The desk sergeant spoke up. "This fellow says he come here to
Mayport to see you, Mr. Foster."
Foster looked at me steadily. "That's right, Sergeant. This gentleman
is considering a proposition I've made."
"Well, I didn't know, Mr. Foster," the cop said.
"I quite understand, Sergeant," Foster said. "We all feel better,
knowing you're on the job."
"Well, you know," the cop said.
"We may as well be on our way then," Foster said. "If you're ready,
Mr. Legion."
"Sure, I'm ready," I said. Mr. Foster said goodnight to the cop and we
went out. On the pavement in front of the building I stopped.
"Thanks, Mr. Foster," I said. "I'll get out of your hair now."
Foster had his hand on the door of a deceptively modest-looking

cabriolet. I could smell the solid leather upholstery from where I
stood.
"Why not come along to my place, Legion," he said. "We might at
least discuss my proposition."
I shook my head. "I'm not the man for the job, Mr. Foster," I said. "If
you'd like to advance me a couple of bucks, I'll get myself a bite to eat
and fade right out of your life."
"What makes you so sure you're not interested?"
"Your ad said something about adventure. I've had my adventures.
Now I'm just looking for a hole to crawl into."
"I don't believe you, Legion." Foster smiled at me, a slow, calm smile.
"I think your adventures have hardly begun."
I thought about it. If I went along, I'd at least get a meal—and maybe
even a bed for the night. It was better than curling up under a tree.
"Well," I said, "a remark like that demands time for an explanation." I
got in the car and sank back in a seat that seemed to fit me like
Foster's jacket fit him.
"I hope you won't mind if I drive fast," Foster said. "I want to be home
before dark." We started up and wheeled away from the curb like a
torpedo sliding out of the launching tube.
I got out of the car in the drive at Foster's house, and looked around
at the wide clipped lawn, the flower beds that were vivid even by
moonlight, the line of tall poplars, and the big white house.
"I wish I hadn't come," I said. "This kind of place reminds me of all the
things I haven't gotten out of life."
"Your life's still ahead of you," Foster said. He opened the slab of
mahogany that was the front door, and I followed him inside. At the
end of a short hall he flipped a switch that flooded the room before us
with soft light. I stared at a pale grey carpet about the size of a tennis
court, decked out with Danish teak upholstered in rich colors. The
walls were a rough-textured grey; here and there were expensively
framed abstractions. The air was cool with the heavy coolness of air
conditioning. Foster crossed to a bar that looked modest in the
setting, in spite of being bigger than those in most beer joints.
"Would you care for a drink?" he said.
I looked down at my limp, stained suit, and grimy cuffs.
"Look, Mr. Foster," I said. "I just realized something. If you've got a
stable, I'll go sleep in it—"
Foster laughed. "Come on; I'll show you the bath."
I came downstairs, clean, showered, and wearing a set of Foster's

clothes. I found him sitting, sipping a drink and listening to music.
"The Liebestod," I said. "A little gloomy, isn't it?"
"I read something else into it," Foster said. "Sit down and have a bite
to eat and a drink."
I sat in one of the big soft chairs and tried not to let my hand shake as
I reached for one of the sandwiches piled on the coffee table.
"Tell me something, Mr. Legion," Foster said. "Why did you come
here, mention my name—if you didn't intend to see me?"
I shook my head. "It just worked out that way."
"Tell me something about yourself," Foster said.
"It's not much of a story."
"Still, I'd like to hear it."
"Well, I was born, grew up, went to school—"
"What school?"
"University of Illinois."
"What was your major?"
"Music," I answered at once.
Foster looked at me, frowning slightly.
"It's the truth," I said. "I wanted to be a conductor. The army had other
ideas. I was in my last year when the draft got me. They discovered I
had what they considered an aptitude for Intelligence work. I didn't
mind it. I had a pretty good time for a couple of years."
"Go on," Foster said. Well, I'd had a bath and a good meal. I owed
him something. If he wanted to hear my troubles, why not tell him?
"I was putting on a demonstration. A defective timer set off a charge
of HE fifty seconds early on a one-minute setting. A student was
killed; I got off easy with a busted eardrum and a pound or two of
gravel imbedded in my back. When I got out of the hospital, the army
felt real bad about letting me go—but they did. My terminal leave pay
gave me a big weekend in San Francisco and set me up in business
as a private investigator."
I took another long pull at a big pewter tankard of ale and went on.
"I had enough left over after the bankruptcy proceeding a few months
later to get me to Las Vegas. I lost what was left and took a job with a
casino operator named Gonino.
"I stayed with Gonino for nearly a year. Then one night a visiting bank
clerk lost his head and shot him eight times with a .22 target pistol. I
left town the same night."
I swallowed some more of Foster's ale. It was the best. Foster was a
pretty good egg, too.
"After that I sold used cars for a couple of months in Memphis; then I
made like a life guard at Daytona; baited hooks on a thirty foot tuna
boat out of Key West; all the odd jobs with low pay and no future. I
spent a couple of years in Cuba; all I got out of that was two bullet
scars on the left leg, and a prominent position on a CIA blacklist.
"After that things got tough. A man in my trade can't really hope to
succeed in a big way without the little blue card in the plastic cover to
back his play. I was headed south for the winter, and I picked Mayport
to run out of money."
I stood up. "I sure enjoyed the bath, Mr. Foster, and the meal, too—
not to mention the beer. I'd like real well to get in that bed upstairs
and have a night's sleep just to make it complete; but I'm not
interested in the job." I turned away, started across the room.
"Legion," Foster said. I turned. A beer bottle was hanging in the air in
front of my face. I put a hand up fast and the bottle slapped my palm.
"Not a bad set of reflexes for a man whose adventures are all behind
him," Foster said.
I tossed the bottle aside. "If I'd missed, that would have knocked my
teeth out," I said angrily.
"You didn't miss—even though you're weaving a little from the beer.
And a man who can feel a pint or so of beer isn't an alcoholic—so
you're clean on that score."
"I didn't say I was ready for the rummy ward," I said. "I'm just not
interested in your proposition—whatever it is."
"Legion," Foster said, "maybe you have the idea I put that ad in the
paper last week, on a whim. The fact is, I've been running it—in one
form or another—for over eight years."
I looked at him and waited.
"Not only locally—I've run it in the big-city papers, and in some of the
national weekly and monthly publications. All together, I've had
perhaps fifty responses."
Foster smiled wryly. "About three quarters of them were from women
who thought I wanted a playmate. Several more were from men with
the same idea. The few others were hopelessly unsuitable."
"That's surprising," I said. "I'd have thought you'd have brought half
the nuts in the country out of the woodwork by now."
Foster looked at me, not smiling. I realized suddenly that behind the
urbane facade there was a hint of tension, a trace of worry in the level
blue eyes.
"I'd like very much to interest you in what I have to say, Legion. I think
you lack only one thing—confidence in yourself."
I gave a sort of laugh. "What are the qualifications you think I have?
I'm a jack of no trades—"
"Legion, you're a man of considerable intelligence and more than a
little culture; you've travelled widely and know how to handle yourself
in difficult situations—or you wouldn't have survived. I'm sure your
training includes techniques of entry and fact-gathering not known to
the average man; and perhaps most important, although you're an
honest man, you're capable of breaking the law—when necessary."
"So that's it," I said.
"No, I'm not forming a mob, Legion. As I said in the ad—this is an
unusual adventure. It may—probably will—involve infringing various
statutes and regulations of one sort or another. After you know the full
story I'll leave you to judge whether it's justifiable."
If Foster was trying to arouse my curiosity, he was succeeding. He
was dead serious about whatever it was he was planning. It sounded
like something no one with good sense would want to get involved in
—but on the other hand, Foster didn't look like the sort of man to do
anything foolish....
"Why don't you tell me what this is all about?" I said. "Why would a
man with all this—" I waved a hand at the luxurious room—"want to
pick a hobo like me out of the gutter and talk him into taking a job?"
"Your ego has taken a severe beating, Legion—that's obvious. I think
you're afraid that I'll expect too much of you—or that I'll be shocked
by some disclosure you may make. Perhaps if you'd forget yourself
and your problems for the moment, we could reach an understanding
—"
"Yeah," I said. "Just forget my problems—"
"Chiefly money problems, of course. Most of the problems of this
society involve the abstraction of values that money represents."
"Okay," I said. "I've got my problems, you've got yours. Let's leave it
at that."
"You feel that, because I have material comfort, my problems must of
necessity be trivial ones. Tell me, Mr. Legion: have you ever known a
man who suffered from amnesia?"
Foster crossed the room to a small writing desk, took something from
a drawer, looked at me.
"I'd like you to examine this," he said.
I went over and took the object from his hand. It was a small book,
with a cover of drab-colored plastic, unornamented except for an
embossed design of two concentric rings. I opened the cover. The
pages were as thin as tissue, but opaque, and covered with
extremely fine writing in strange foreign characters. The last dozen
pages were in English. I had to hold the book close to my eyes to
read the minute script:
"January 19, 1710. Having come nigh to calamity with the near lofs of
the key, I will henceforth keep thif journal in the Englifh tongue...."
"If this is an explanation of something, it's too subtle for me," I said.
"Legion, how old would you say I am?"
"That's a hard one," I said. "When I first saw you I would have said
the late thirties, maybe. Now, frankly, you look closer to fifty."
"I can show you proof," Foster said, "that I spent the better part of a
year in a military hospital in France. I awakened in a ward, bandaged
to the eyes, and with no memories whatever of my life before that
day. According to the records made at the time, I appeared to be
about thirty years of age."
"Well," I said, "amnesia's not so unusual among war casualties.
You've done well since."
Foster shook his head impatiently. "There's nothing difficult about
acquiring material wealth in this society, though the effort kept me
well occupied for a number of years—and diverted my thoughts from
the question of my past life. The time came, however, when I had the
leisure to pursue the matter. The clues I had were meagre enough;
the notebook I've shown you was found near me, and I had a ring on
my finger." Foster held out his hand. On the middle finger was a
massive signet, engraved with the same design of concentric circles I
had seen on the cover of the notebook.
"I was badly burned; my clothing was charred. Oddly enough, the
notebook was quite unharmed, though it was found among burned
debris. It's made of very tough stuff."
"What did you find out?"
"In a word—nothing. No military unit claimed me. I spoke English,
from which it was deduced that I was English or American—"
"They couldn't tell which, from your accent?"
"Apparently not; it appears I spoke a sort of hybrid dialect."
"Maybe you're lucky. I'd be happy to forget my first thirty years."
"I spent a considerable sum of money in my attempts to discover my
past," Foster went on. "And several years of time. In the end I gave it
up. And it wasn't until then that I found the first faint inkling."
"So you did find something?"
"Nothing I hadn't had all along. The notebook."
"I'd have thought you would have read that before you did anything
else," I said. "Don't tell me you put it in the bureau drawer and forgot
it."
"I read it, of course—what I could read of it. Only a relatively small
section is in English. The rest is a cipher. And what I read seemed
meaningless—quite unrelated to me. You've glanced through it; it's no
more than a journal, irregularly kept, and so cryptic as to be little
better than a code itself. And of course the dates; they range from the
early eighteenth century through the early twentieth."
"A sort of family record, maybe," I said. "Carried on generation after
generation. Didn't it mention any names, or places?"
"Look at it again, Legion," Foster said. "See if you notice anything odd
—other than what we've already discussed."
I thumbed through the book again. It was no more than an inch thick,
but it was heavy—surprisingly heavy. There were a lot of pages—I
shuffled through hundreds of closely written sheets and yet the book
was less than half used. I read bits here and there:
"May 4, 1746. The Voyage waf not a Succefs. I muft forfake thif
avenue of Enquiry...."
"October 23, 1790. Builded the weft Barrier a cubit higher. Now the
fires burn every night. Is there no limit to their infernal perfiftence?"
"January 19, 1831. I have great hopes for the Philadelphia enterprise.
My greatest foe is impatience. All preparations for the Change are
made, yet I confess I am uneasy...."
"There are plenty of oddities," I said. "Aside from the entries

themselves. This is supposed to be old—but the quality of the paper
and binding beats anything I've seen. And that handwriting is pretty
fancy for a quill pen—"
"There's a stylus clipped to the spine of the book," Foster said. "It was
written with that."
I looked, pulled out a slim pen, then looked at Foster. "Speaking of
odd," I said. "A genuine antique early colonial ball-point pen doesn't
turn up every day—"
"Suspend your judgment until you've seen it all," Foster said.
"And two-hundred years on one refill—that's not bad." I riffled through
the pages, tossed the book onto the table. "Who's kidding who,
Foster?" I said.
"The book was described in detail in the official record, of which I
have copies. They mention the paper and binding, the stylus, even
quote some of the entries. The authorities worked over it pretty
closely, trying to identify me. They reached the same conclusion as
you—that it was the work of a crackpot; but they saw the same book
you're looking at now."
"So what? So it was faked up some time during the war—what does
that prove? I'm ready to concede it's sixteen years old—"
"You don't understand, Legion," Foster said. "I told you I work up in a
military hospital in France. But it was an AEF hospital and the year
was 1918."

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Understanding Management 9th Edition

Daft Solutions Manual

MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING

ANNOTATED LEARNING OUTCOMES

1. Explain why decision making is an important component of good management.

5. Identify the six steps used in managerial decision making.

Evidence-based decision making is founded on a commitment to examining potential biases,

An important key to better decision making under conditions of uncertainty is to encourage a

I. TYPES OF DECISIONS AND PROBLEMS

A. Programmed and Nonprogrammed Decisions

2. Nonprogrammed decisions are made in response to situations that are unique,

B. Facing Certainty and Uncertainty Exhibit 6.1

1. One difference between programmed and nonprogrammed decisions relates to the

d. Ambiguity means that the goals to be achieved or the problem to be solved is

NEW MANAGER SELF-TEST: INTOLERANCE OF AMBIGUITY

II. DECISION-MAKING MODELS Exhibit 6.2

A. The Ideal, Rational Model

1. The classical model of decision making is based on assumptions that managers

b. The decision maker strives for conditions of certainty, gathering complete

c. Criteria for evaluating alternatives are known.

B. How Managers Actually Make Decisions

1. Bounded Rationality and Satisficing

a. The administrative model is considered to be descriptive, meaning that it

b. Bounded rationality means people have limits, or boundaries, on the amount of

d. According to the administrative model:

• Managers’ searches for alternatives are limited because of human,

• Most managers settle for a satisficing rather than a maximizing solution.

a. Intuition is another aspect of administrative decision making. Intuition

C. The Political Model

1. This model is for nonprogrammed decisions when conditions are uncertain,

b. Information is ambiguous and incomplete.

c. Managers do not have time, resources, or mental capacity to identify all

III. DECISION-MAKING STEPS Exhibit 6.3

Whether a decision is programmed or nonprogrammed, and regardless of whether the manager

A. Recognition of Decision Requirement

1. Managers confront a decision requirement in the form of either a problem or an

2. Awareness of a problem or opportunity is the first step in the decision-making

B. Diagnosis and Analysis of Causes

a. What is the state of disequilibrium affecting us?

b. When did it occur?

c. Where did it occur?

d. How did it occur?

e. To whom did it occur?

f. What is the urgency of the situation?

g. What is the interconnectedness of events?

h. What result came from which activity?

D. Selection of the Desired Alternative

E. Implementation of Chosen Alternative Exhibit 6.4

1. The implementation stage involves the use of managerial, administrative, and

F. Evaluation and Feedback

1. In the evaluation step, decision makers gather information or feedback to determine

IV. PERSONAL DECISION FRAMEWORK Exhibit 6.5

V. WHY DO MANAGERS MAKE BAD DECISIONS?

VI. INNOVATIVE DECISION MAKING

A. Start with Brainstorming

2. Electronic brainstorming, called brainwriting, brings people together in an

B. Use Hard Evidence