Gomez, Niña Alexa B.

3BAM5A
Operations Management
Activity: Forecasting and Demand Planning Exercise

Data Collection:
TECH HAVEN GADGETS SALES YEAR 2022
MONTH LAPTOPS SMARTPHONES TABLETS EXTERNAL FACTORS
SOLD SOLD SOLD
JANUARY 10 5 3 New Year promotions led to a
slight increase in sales
FEBRUARY 8 4 2
MARCH 15 7 5
APRIL 7 3 2
MAY 18 8 6 Back-to-school promotions
and academic year start
JUNE 10 5 4
JULY 12 6 3
AUGUST 20 10 8
SEPTEMBE 5 2 1
R
OCTOBER 25 12 10
NOVEMBER 30 15 12
DECEMBER 35 20 15 Christmas season promotions
led to peak sales

Analysis:
MONTH TOTAL SALES 3-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE
JANUARY 18
FEBRUARY 14
MARCH 27 19.67
APRIL 12 17.67
MAY 32 23.67
JUNE 19 21
JULY 21 24
AUGUST 38 26
SEPTEMBER 8 22.33
OCTOBER 47 31
NOVEMBER 57 37.33
DECEMBER 70 58
Forecasting:

Demand Forecast for Holiday Season December 2023

82

80

78

76

74

72

70

68

66

64
Jan-22 Jan-23

Demand Forecast for Holiday Season December 2023

December 2023 Forecast = Previous Year December Sales x Expected Growth Rate
Assuming a growth rate of 15%:
December 2023 Forecast = 70 x 1.15 = 80.5

Inventory Planning:
 Forecasted Demand (December 2023): 80 units
 Safety Stock: 10% of forecasted demand (8 units)
 Order Quantity: Based on EOQ and storage capacity (e.g., 30 units)
 Lead Time: 4 weeks
 Reorder Point: Forecasted demand + Safety Stock (88 units)

Risk Management:
1. Prevention
 Diversify suppliers to reduce dependency on a single source.
 Regularly assess supplier reliability and financial stability.

2. Mitigation
 Maintain safety stock to buffer against short-term disruptions.
 Establish strategic partnerships with key suppliers.
3. Response:
 Activate contingency contracts with backup suppliers.
  Expedite shipping or air freight options for critical inventory.

4. Recovery:
 Assess the root cause of the disruption and implement measures to prevent a recurrence.
 Reevaluate the supply chain strategy for long-term resilience.

Communication:
Demand Forecast
Based on our analysis, we forecast a demand of approximately 80 units for December 2023.

Inventory Plan
 Safety Stock: 8 units
 Order Quantity: Based on EOQ and storage capacity (e.g., 30 units)
 Lead Time: 4 weeks
 Reorder Point: (88 units)

Risk Management Strategies

1. Prevention
2. Mitigation
3. Response
4. Recovery