Feb 01 Dawn Opinion With Urdu Translation

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01 February

Dawn Opinion With Urdu Translation 01 February 2024


Rich man’s polls? ‫ا ﻣ ﯿ ﺮ آد ﻣ ﯽ ﮐ ﮯ ا ﻧ ﺘ ﺨﺎ ﺑﺎت؟‬
Syed Sheheryar Raza Zaidi ‫ﺳﯿﺪ ﺷﮩﺮﯾﺎر رﺿﺎ زﯾﺪی‬
The writer is a lawyer. ‫ﻣﺼﻨﻒ اﯾﮏ وﮐﯿﻞ ﮨﯿﮟ‬

THE general elections to determine Pakistan’s


fortunes are just around the corner. On Feb 8, 2024, ‫ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﯽ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﮐﺎ ﺗﻌﯿﻦ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ واﻟﮯ ﻋﺎم اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت ﺑﺎﻟﮑﻞ ﻗﺮﯾﺐ‬
the people of Pakistan will come out to vote for a ‫ ﮐﻮ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎﻧﯽ ﻋﻮام اﯾﮏ اﯾﺴﯽ ﺟﻤﺎﻋﺖ ﯾﺎ‬2024 ‫ ﻓﺮوری‬8 ‫ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬
party or candidate who they believe is competent ‫اﻣﯿﺪوار ﮐﻮ ووٹ دﯾﻨﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﺑﺎﮨﺮ ﻧﮑﻠﯿﮟ ﮔﮯ ﺟﻮ ان ﮐﮯ ﺧﯿﺎل ﻣﯿﮟ‬
enough to rule for the next five years. Much has ‫اﮔﻠﮯ ﭘﺎﻧﭻ ﺳﺎل ﺗﮏ ﺣﮑﻮﻣﺖ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﮨﻮ۔ ﮐﺴﯽ ﺧﺎص ﭘﺎرﭨﯽ‬
been said about the level playing field being ‫ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﻟﯿﻮل ﭘﻠﯿﺌﻨﮓ ﻓﯿﻠﮉ ﺗﯿﺎر ﮐﯿﮯ ﺟﺎﻧﮯ ﯾﺎ دوﺳﺮی ﭘﺎرﭨﯽ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ‬
prepared for a particular party or the lack thereof ،‫اس ﮐﯽ ﮐﻤﯽ ﮐﮯ ﺑﺎرے ﻣﯿﮟ ﺑﮩﺖ ﮐﭽﮫ ﮐﮩﺎ ﺟﺎ ﭼﮑﺎ ﮨﮯ۔ ﭘﮭﺮ ﺑﮭﯽ‬
for another. Yet, Elections 2024 are no different to ‫ ﮐﮯ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت ﮔﺰﺷﺘﮧ ﺑﺮس ﮐﮯ ﻋﺎم اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت ﺳﮯ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ‬2024
general elections of yesteryear. Yes, the ‘favourites’ ‫ ﻟﯿﮑﻦ‬،‫ ﻃﺎﻗﺘﻮں ﮐﮯ 'ﭘﺴﻨﺪﯾﺪہ' ﺑﺪل ﮔﺌﮯ ﮨﻮں ﮔﮯ‬،‫ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ ﺟﯽ ﮨﺎں‬
of the powers that be may have changed, but the ‫ﻋﺎم اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت ﮐﮯ اﻣﯿﺮ آدﻣﯽ ﮐﮯ ﮐﮭﯿﻞ ﮐﺎ ﻣﯿﺪان ﮨﻮﻧﮯ ﮐﺎ ﺑﻨﯿﺎدی‬
underlying idea of the general elections being the ‫ﺧﯿﺎل ﺑﺪﺳﺘﻮر درﺳﺖ ﮨﮯ۔‬
rich man’s playground continues to be true.

An election in the truest sense of the word is the


‫ﻟﻔﻆ ﮐﮯ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻌﻨﻮں ﻣﯿﮟ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب اﯾﮏ اﯾﺴﮯ ﻓﺮد ﮐﺎ ﻟﻮﮔﻮں ﮐﺎ‬
people’s choice of an individual who will represent
‫اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﮨﮯ ﺟﻮ ﮐﺴﯽ ﺧﺎص ادارے ﻣﯿﮟ ان ﮐﯽ ﻧﻤﺎﺋﻨﺪﮔﯽ ﮐﺮے ﮔﺎ۔‬
them in a particular body. As is customary,
‫ ﯾﻌﻨﯽ‬،‫ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت ﻣﯿﮟ ﮐﯿﻨﻮﺳﻨﮓ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﮨﻮﺗﯽ ﮨﮯ‬،‫ﺟﯿﺴﺎ ﮐﮧ رواج ﮨﮯ‬
elections involve canvassing, ie, reaching out to the
‫اﭘﻨﮯ آپ ﮐﻮ اﯾﮏ اﯾﺴﮯ ﺷﺨﺺ ﮐﮯ ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ ﻣﺎرﮐﯿﭧ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ‬
masses to market oneself as one whose merits ‫ﺟﺲ ﮐﯽ ﺧﻮﺑﯿﺎں اس ﮐﮯ ﻣﺨﺎﻟﻔﯿﻦ ﺳﮯ زﯾﺎدہ ﮨﻮﺗﯽ ﮨﯿﮟ اور اس ﮐﮯ‬
outweigh those of his or her opponents and result ‫ﻧﺘﯿﺠﮯ ﻣﯿﮟ اﯾﺴﺎ ﺷﺨﺺ 'ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ' ﮨﻮﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬
in such a person being ‘elected’.

That said, in Pakistan elections have always been ‫اس ﮐﺎ ﮐﮩﻨﺎ ﺗﮭﺎ ﮐﮧ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﻣﯿﮟ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت ﮨﻤﯿﺸﮧ اﯾﮏ ﻣﺨﺼﻮص‬
about a particular economic class from which ‫ﻣﻌﺎﺷﯽ ﻃﺒﻘﮯ ﮐﮯ ﺑﺎرے ﻣﯿﮟ ﮨﻮﺗﮯ رﮨﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ ﺟﮩﺎں ﺳﮯ اﯾﮏ ﻣﺨﺼﻮص‬
emerge individuals of a particular gender to fight it ‫ﺟﻨﺲ ﮐﮯ اﻓﺮاد اﺑﮭﺮ ﮐﺮ اﺳﮯ آﭘﺲ ﻣﯿﮟ ﻟﮍاﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ اور اﭘﻨﮯ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ‬
out amongst themselves and to use their financial ‫ﻋﻀﻠﮧ ﮐﻮ اﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﮐﺮﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ ﺟﺲ ﺳﮯ اﻧﮩﯿﮟ ووٹ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ‬
muscle that can help them get the votes. ‫ﻣﯿﮟ ﻣﺪد ﻣﻞ ﺳﮑﺘﯽ ﮨﮯ۔‬

A look at the majority of the members who have ‫ ﺳﺎﻟﻮں ﻣﯿﮟ ﭘﺎرﻟﯿﻤﻨﭧ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ ﮨﻮﻧﮯ واﻟﮯ ارﮐﺎن‬50 ‫ﮔﺰﺷﺘﮧ‬
been elected over the past 50 years to parliament ‫ﮐﯽ اﮐﺜﺮﯾﺖ ﭘﺮ اﯾﮏ ﻧﻈﺮ ڈاﻟﻨﮯ ﺳﮯ ﯾﮧ ﺧﯿﺎل واﺿﺢ ﮨﻮ ﺟﺎﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬
makes this idea clear. A big chunk of the people ‫ ﻣﺮدوں( ﻧﮯ اﻗﺘﺪار ﻣﯿﮟ ووٹ ڈاﻟﮯ ﯾﺎ‬:‫ﻋﻮام ﮐﺎ اﯾﮏ ﺑﮍا ﺣﺼﮧ )ﭘﮍﮬﯿﮟ‬
(read: men) voted into power are either large ‫ ﺷﻮﮔﺮ ﺑﯿﺮن اور ﮐﻨﺴﭩﺮﮐﺸﻦ ﭨﺎﺋﯿﮑﻮن ﯾﺎ ﭘﮭﺮ ﺑﺰﻧﺲ‬،‫ﺗﻮ ﺑﮍے زﻣﯿﻨﺪار‬
landowners, sugar barons and construction tycoons ‫ ﺟﻦ ﮐﯽ ﻗﻮﻣﯽ اور ﺻﻮﺑﺎﺋﯽ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﯿﮟ زﺑﺮدﺳﺖ‬،‫ﻣﯿﮕﻨﯿﭧ ﮨﯿﮟ‬
or business magnates, whose foray into national ‫ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺗﺴﻠﻂ ﮐﯽ ﺣﻤﺎﯾﺖ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﮨﮯ۔ ﯾﮧ وہ ﺟﮕﮧ ﮨﮯ ﺟﮩﺎں ﺳﮯ ﭨﮑﮍے‬
and provincial politics is backed by enormous ‫ﮐﺎ ﻋﻨﻮان آﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬
financial clout. This is where the title of the piece
comes from.

The average Pakistani will have to save for years to ‫اوﺳﻂ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎﻧﯽ ﮐﻮ اﻟﯿﮑﺸﻦ ﻟﮍﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﺳﺎﻟﻮں ﮐﯽ ﺑﭽﺖ ﮐﺮﻧﯽ‬
contest. ‫ﭘﮍے ﮔﯽ۔‬

Meanwhile, the gender difference is appalling. Of


the total number of candidates (5,121) contesting ‫ ﺻﻨﻔﯽ ﻓﺮق ﺧﻮﻓﻨﺎک ﮨﮯ۔ ﻗﻮﻣﯽ اﺳﻤﺒﻠﯽ ﮐﯽ ﺟﻨﺮل‬،‫درﯾﮟ اﺛﻨﺎ‬
for the general seats in the National Assembly, ‫( ﻣﯿﮟ‬5,121) ‫ﻧﺸﺴﺘﻮں ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﻟﮍﻧﮯ واﻟﮯ اﻣﯿﺪواروں ﮐﯽ ﮐﻞ ﺗﻌﺪاد‬
4,807 are male and only 312 are females (two ‫ ﺧﻮاﺗﯿﻦ ﮨﯿﮟ )دو اﻣﯿﺪوار ﺧﻮاﺟﮧ‬312 ‫ ﻣﺮد اور ﺻﺮف‬4,807 ‫ﺳﮯ‬

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01 February
candidates from the transgender community). For ‫ﺳﺮا ﺑﺮادری ﺳﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ(۔ اﭘﻨﯽ ﺗﻤﺎم ﺗﺮ دﻋﻮے دار ﺗﺮﻗﯽ ﭘﺴﻨﺪی ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ‬
all their claimed progressiveness, even the three ‫ ﯾﮩﺎں ﺗﮏ ﮐﮧ ﺗﯿﻦ ﺳﺮﮐﺮدہ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ ﺟﻤﺎﻋﺘﻮں ﻧﮯ ﺧﻮاﺗﯿﻦ ﮐﮯ ﻧﺎﻣﺰد‬،
leading political parties have allotted only a handful ‫ﮐﺮدہ اﻣﯿﺪواروں ﮐﻮ ﺻﺮف ﻣﭩﮭﯽ ﺑﮭﺮ ﻧﺸﺴﺘﯿﮟ اﻻٹ ﮐﯽ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬
of seats to women nominees. While there are ‫ ﻟﯿﮑﻦ‬،‫اﮔﺮﭼﮧ ﭘﺎرﻟﯿﻤﻨﭧ ﻣﯿﮟ ﺧﻮاﺗﯿﻦ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﻣﺨﺼﻮص ﻧﺸﺴﺘﯿﮟ ﮨﯿﮟ‬
reserved seats for women in parliament, there is ‫ﯾﮧ ﻇﺎﮨﺮ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﺑﮩﺖ ﮐﻢ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ ﺟﻤﺎﻋﺘﯿﮟ ﻋﺎم ﻧﺸﺴﺘﻮں ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ‬
little to show that parties are taking a significant ‫ﻣﺮد اور ﺧﻮاﺗﯿﻦ ﮐﮯ اﻣﯿﺪواروں ﮐﮯ درﻣﯿﺎن ﻓﺮق ﮐﻮ ﺧﺘﻢ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﯽ‬
stride towards plugging the gap between men and ‫ ﺧﻮاﺗﯿﻦ‬،‫ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺎں ﭘﯿﺶ رﻓﺖ ﮐﺮ رﮨﯽ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ دوﺳﺮے ﺳﺮے ﭘﺮ‬
women candidates for the general seats. At the ‫ ﻣﺎﺿﯽ‬- ‫ ﻓﯿﺼﺪ ﺑﻨﺘﯽ ﮨﯿﮟ‬46 ‫ووﭨﺮز ﮐﻞ اﮨﻞ ووﭨﺮوں ﻣﯿﮟ ﺳﮯ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒًﺎ‬
other end, female voters make up around 46 per ‫ﺳﮯ اﯾﮏ ﺑﮩﺘﺮی ﻟﯿﮑﻦ اب ﺑﮭﯽ ﮐﻮﺋﯽ دﯾﮑﮫ ﺳﮑﺘﺎ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت‬
cent of the total eligible voters — an improvement ‫ﻣﯿﮟ ﺧﻮاﺗﯿﻦ ﮐﻮ ﮐﺲ ﻃﺮح ﮐﻢ ﮐﯿﺎ ﺟﺎ رﮨﺎ ﮨﮯ ﺟﯿﺴﺎ ﮐﮧ وہ زﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﮐﮯ‬
from the past but one can still see how women are ‫ﮨﺮ دوﺳﺮے ﭘﮩﻠﻮ ﻣﯿﮟ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬
being shortchanged in elections as they are in every
other facet of life.

Having established that Pakistan’s general


elections have an unhealthy obsession with men at ‫اس ﺑﺎت ﮐﻮ ﻗﺎﺋﻢ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﺑﻌﺪ ﮐﮧ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﮯ ﻋﺎم اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت ﻣﯿﮟ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت ﮐﯽ ﺳﺮﺑﺮاﮨﯽ ﻣﯿﮟ ﻣﺮدوں ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ اﯾﮏ ﻏﯿﺮ ﺻﺤﺖ ﺑﺨﺶ‬
the helm of affairs, we can dissect the financial
‫ ﮨﻢ اس ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﻃﺎﻗﺖ ﮐﻮ ﺧﺘﻢ ﮐﺮ ﺳﮑﺘﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ ﺟﻮ‬،‫ﺟﻨﻮن ﮨﮯ‬
clout which has become the very foundation of
‫ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﯽ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﯽ ﺳﺮﮔﺮﻣﯿﻮں ﮐﯽ ﺑﻨﯿﺎد ﺑﻦ ﮔﯿﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬
Pakistan’s electoral activity.

The Election Act, 2017, hailed as a complete code


of polls in Pakistan, actually facilitates the triumph
‫ ﺟﺴﮯ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﻣﯿﮟ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت ﮐﮯ اﯾﮏ ﻣﮑﻤﻞ‬،2017 ،‫اﻟﯿﮑﺸﻦ اﯾﮑﭧ‬
of rich men over those with fewer resources in the
‫ درﺣﻘﯿﻘﺖ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﯿﺪان ﻣﯿﮟ ﮐﻢ‬،‫ﺿﺎﺑﻄﮧ ﮐﮯ ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ ﺳﺮاﮨﺎ ﮔﯿﺎ ﮨﮯ‬
electoral arena. Section 132 of the Act specifies the
‫وﺳﺎﺋﻞ رﮐﮭﻨﮯ واﻟﻮں ﭘﺮ اﻣﯿﺮ آدﻣﯿﻮں ﮐﯽ ﻓﺘﺢ ﮐﯽ ﺳﮩﻮﻟﺖ ﻓﺮاﮨﻢ‬
amount a candidate is allowed to spend. As per the ‫ اس رﻗﻢ ﮐﯽ وﺿﺎﺣﺖ ﮐﺮﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ ﺟﻮ‬132 ‫ﮐﺮﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ۔ اﯾﮑﭧ ﮐﺎ ﺳﯿﮑﺸﻦ‬
said law, a candidate for the National Assembly on ‫اﻣﯿﺪوار ﮐﻮ ﺧﺮچ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﯽ اﺟﺎزت ﮨﮯ۔ ﻣﺬﮐﻮرہ ﻗﺎﻧﻮن ﮐﮯ ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻖ‬
their own and through his supporters and political ‫ﻗﻮﻣﯽ اﺳﻤﺒﻠﯽ ﮐﺎ اﻣﯿﺪوار اﭘﻨﮯ ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ اور اﭘﻨﮯ ﺣﺎﻣﯿﻮں اور‬
party cannot spend more than Rs10 million and for ‫ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ ﺟﻤﺎﻋﺖ ﮐﮯ ذرﯾﻌﮯ اﯾﮏ ﮐﺮوڑ روﭘﮯ ﺳﮯ زﯾﺎدہ ﺧﺮچ ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﮐﺮ‬
a candidate of a provincial assembly that cap is ‫ ﻻﮐﮫ روﭘﮯ‬40 ‫ﺳﮑﺘﺎ اور ﺻﻮﺑﺎﺋﯽ اﺳﻤﺒﻠﯽ ﮐﮯ اﻣﯿﺪوار ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﯾﮧ ﺣﺪ‬
Rs4m. Now contrast that with the average ‫ﮨﮯ۔ اب اس ﮐﮯ ﺑﺮﻋﮑﺲ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﻣﯿﮟ ﮔﮭﺮﯾﻠﻮ اوﺳﻂ آﻣﺪﻧﯽ ﺟﻮ‬
household income in Pakistan which stands at ‫ روﭘﮯ ﮨﮯ۔‬75,000 ‫ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒًﺎ‬
around Rs75,000.

This means that for an average person in Pakistan


to be able to spend even close to the spending limit ‫اس ﮐﺎ ﻣﻄﻠﺐ ﯾﮧ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﻣﯿﮟ اﯾﮏ اوﺳﻂ ﻓﺮد ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ‬
for election to the National Assembly, they will need ‫ﻗﻮﻣﯽ اﺳﻤﺒﻠﯽ ﮐﮯ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ اﺧﺮاﺟﺎت ﮐﯽ ﺣﺪ ﮐﮯ ﻗﺮﯾﺐ ﺧﺮچ‬
to save all their income for over a decade. That’s ‫ اﺳﮯ اﭘﻨﯽ ﺗﻤﺎم آﻣﺪﻧﯽ ﮐﻮ اﯾﮏ دﮨﺎﺋﯽ ﺳﮯ زﯾﺎدہ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ‬،‫ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ‬
not even the irony. The irony is that the spending ‫ﺑﭽﺎﻧﮯ ﮐﯽ ﺿﺮورت ﮨﻮﮔﯽ۔ ﯾﮧ ﺳﺘﻢ ﻇﺮﯾﻔﯽ ﺑﮭﯽ ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﮨﮯ۔ ﺳﺘﻢ‬
limit only applies where a candidate permits such ‫ﻇﺮﯾﻔﯽ ﯾﮧ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ اﺧﺮاﺟﺎت ﮐﯽ ﺣﺪ ﺻﺮف اس وﻗﺖ ﻻﮔﻮ ﮨﻮﺗﯽ ﮨﮯ‬
expenditure. If expenses are incurred for a ‫ﺟﺐ ﮐﻮﺋﯽ اﻣﯿﺪوار اس ﻃﺮح ﮐﮯ اﺧﺮاﺟﺎت ﮐﯽ اﺟﺎزت دﯾﺘﺎ ﮨﻮ۔ اﮔﺮ‬
candidate which he or she does not permit, in light ‫ﮐﺴﯽ اﻣﯿﺪوار ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ اﯾﺴﮯ اﺧﺮاﺟﺎت ﮐﯿﮯ ﺟﺎﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ ﺟﻦ ﮐﯽ وہ‬
of Section 132 of the Election Act, those expenses ،‫ ﮐﯽ روﺷﻨﯽ ﻣﯿﮟ‬132 ‫ اﻟﯿﮑﺸﻦ اﯾﮑﭧ ﮐﯽ دﻓﻌﮧ‬،‫اﺟﺎزت ﻧﮩﯿﮟ دﯾﺘﺎ‬
are not considered part of the candidate’s official ‫ان اﺧﺮاﺟﺎت ﮐﻮ اﻣﯿﺪوار ﮐﮯ ﺳﺮﮐﺎری اﺧﺮاﺟﺎت ﮐﺎ ﺣﺼﮧ ﻧﮩﯿﮟ‬
expenses to which the limit applies. ‫ﺳﻤﺠﮭﺎ ﺟﺎﺗﺎ ﺟﺲ ﭘﺮ ﺣﺪ ﻻﮔﻮ ﮨﻮﺗﯽ ﮨﮯ۔‬

To add fuel to the fire, no spending limit exists for


political parties, just as long as their expenditures ‫ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ ﺟﻤﺎﻋﺘﻮں ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ‬،‫آگ ﻣﯿﮟ اﯾﻨﺪﮬﻦ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ‬
are duly accounted for, legally sourced and not ‫ ﺟﺐ ﺗﮏ ﮐﮧ ان ﮐﮯ‬،‫اﺧﺮاﺟﺎت ﮐﯽ ﮐﻮﺋﯽ ﺣﺪ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﮨﮯ‬
directed towards a particular candidate. This is why ‫ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﯽ ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ‬،‫اﺧﺮاﺟﺎت ﮐﺎ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﺣﺴﺎب ﮐﺘﺎب ﮐﯿﺎ ﺟﺎﺋﮯ‬
when you open your browsers to surf the internet, ‫ﮐﯿﺎ ﺟﺎﺋﮯ اور ﮐﺴﯽ ﺧﺎص اﻣﯿﺪوار ﮐﯽ ﻃﺮف ﻣﺘﻮﺟﮧ ﻧﮧ ﮐﯿﺎ ﺟﺎﺋﮯ۔‬
‫ وﯾﮉﯾﻮز دﯾﮑﮭﻨﮯ‬،‫ﯾﮩﯽ وﺟﮧ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ ﺟﺐ آپ اﻧﭩﺮﻧﯿﭧ ﭘﺮ ﺳﺮﻓﻨﮓ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ‬
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watch videos or scour your television, you see ،‫ﯾﺎ اﭘﻨﮯ ﭨﯿﻠﯽ ویژن ﮐﻮ اﺳﮑﻮر ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ اﭘﻨﺎ ﺑﺮاؤزر ﮐﮭﻮﻟﺘﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ‬
various political parties advertising themselves ‫ﺗﻮ آپ دﯾﮑﮭﺘﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ ﮐﮧ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ ﺟﻤﺎﻋﺘﯿﮟ ﺧﻮد اﺷﺘﮩﺎرات‬
having bought valuable ad space and airtime worth ‫ﮐﺮﺗﯽ ﮨﯿﮟ ﺟﻨﮩﻮں ﻧﮯ ﮐﺮوڑوں روﭘﮯ ﮐﯽ ﻗﯿﻤﺘﯽ اﺷﺘﮩﺎری ﺟﮕﮧ اور‬
millions of rupees. It is only natural then for such ‫اﺋﯿﺮ ﭨﺎﺋﻢ ﺧﺮﯾﺪا ﮨﮯ۔ اس ﺻﻮرت ﻣﯿﮟ اﯾﺴﯽ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ ﺟﻤﺎﻋﺘﻮں ﮐﺎ‬
political parties to gravitate towards candidates ‫اﯾﺴﮯ اﻣﯿﺪواروں ﮐﯽ ﻃﺮف ﻣﺘﻮﺟﮧ ﮨﻮﻧﺎ ﻓﻄﺮی اﻣﺮ ﮨﮯ ﺟﻮ ان‬
who can finance these splurges. ‫ﺳﭙﻠﺮﺟﺰ ﮐﯽ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﻣﻌﺎوﻧﺖ ﮐﺮ ﺳﮑﺘﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬

The purpose here is not to relegate a rich man to


the comforts of their expensive homes but to lay
bare how the ‘level playing field’ being sought by ‫ﯾﮩﺎں ﮐﺎ ﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﮐﺴﯽ اﻣﯿﺮ آدﻣﯽ ﮐﻮ ان ﮐﮯ ﻣﮩﻨﮕﮯ ﮔﮭﺮوں ﮐﯽ‬
one and all should actually be realised for ‫آﺳﺎﺋﺸﻮں ﺗﮏ ﭘﮩﻨﭽﺎﻧﺎ ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﮨﮯ ﺑﻠﮑﮧ ﯾﮧ ﺑﺘﺎﻧﺎ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ ﮐﺲ ﻃﺮح 'ﻟﯿﻮل‬
aspirational women and socially challenged ‫ﭘﻠﯿﺌﻨﮓ ﻓﯿﻠﮉ' اﯾﮏ اور ﺳﺐ ﮐﻮ درﺣﻘﯿﻘﺖ ﺧﻮاﮨﺶ ﻣﻨﺪ ﺧﻮاﺗﯿﻦ اور‬
individuals rather than for the same pensioners who ‫ﺳﻤﺎﺟﯽ ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ ﭼﯿﻠﻨﺞ واﻟﮯ اﻓﺮاد ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﻣﻠﻨﺎ ﭼﺎﮨﯿﮯ ﻧﮧ ﮐﮧ ان ﮐﮯ‬
continue to rule the roost in Pakistan. ‫ﻟﯿﮯ۔ ﭘﻨﺸﻨﺮز ﺟﻮ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﻣﯿﮟ راج ﮐﺮ رﮨﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬

The writer is a lawyer.


X: @sheheryarzaidi
Published in Dawn, February 1st, 2024

Years of unwisdom ‫ﺑ ﮯ ﻋ ﻘﻠ ﯽ ﮐ ﮯ ﺳ ﺎ ل‬
F.S. Aijazuddin ‫ اﻋﺰاز اﻟﺪﯾﻦ‬F.S
The writer is an author. ‫ﻟﮑﮭﺎری اﯾﮏ ﻣﺼﻨﻒ ﮨﮯ۔‬

MEMOIRS of retired Indian and Pakistani diplomats ‫رﯾﭩﺎﺋﺮڈ ﮨﻨﺪوﺳﺘﺎﻧﯽ اور ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎﻧﯽ ﺳﻔﺎرت ﮐﺎروں ﮐﯽ ﯾﺎدداﺷﺘﯿﮟ اﺳ‬
contain accounts of their postings to Islamabad ‫ﻼم آﺑﺎد اور ﻧﺌﯽ دﮨﻠﯽ ﻣﯿﮟ ان ﮐﯽ ﭘﻮﺳﭩﻨﮓ ﮐﮯ اﮐﺎؤﻧﭩﺲ ﭘﺮ ﻣﺸﺘﻤﻞ‬
and New Delhi, spent in professional pugilism and ‫ ﺟﻮ ﭘﯿﺸﮧ وراﻧﮧ ﭼﺎﻟﺒﺎزی ﻣﯿﮟ ﮔﺰارے ﮔﺌﮯ اور ﺳﮑﻮن ﺳﮯ ﯾﺎد‬،‫ﮨﯿﮟ‬
recollected in tranquillity. ‫ﮐﯿﮯ ﮔﺌﮯ۔‬

Former Indian high commissioner Ajay Bisaria’s


book Anger Management: The Troubled Diplomatic :‫ﺳﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﮭﺎرﺗﯽ ﮨﺎﺋﯽ ﮐﻤﺸﻨﺮ اﺟﮯ ﺑﺴﺎرﯾﮧ ﮐﯽ ﮐﺘﺎب اﯾﻨﺠﺮ ﻣﯿﻨﺠﻤﻨﭧ‬
Relationship between India and Pakistan belongs to ‫دی ﭨﺮاﺑﻠﮉ ڈﭘﻠﻮﻣﯿﭩﮏ رﯾﻠﯿﺸﻦ ﺷﭗ اﻧﮉ اﻧﮉﯾﺎ اور ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن اﺳﯽ ﺻﻨﻒ‬
that genre. Its adversarial counterpart is former ‫ﺳﮯ ﺗﻌﻠﻖ رﮐﮭﺘﯽ ﮨﮯ۔ اس ﮐﺎ ﻣﺨﺎﻟﻒ ﮨﻢ ﻣﻨﺼﺐ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﮧ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﮨﺎﺋﯽ‬
Pakistan HC Abdul Basit’s Hostility: A Diplomat’s ‫ ﭘﺎک ﺑﮭﺎرت ﺗﻌﻠﻘﺎت ﭘﺮ اﯾﮏ ﺳﻔﺎرﺗﮑﺎر‬:‫ﮐﻮرٹ ﻋﺒﺪاﻟﺒﺎﺳﻂ ﮐﯽ دﺷﻤﻨﯽ‬
Diary on Pakistan-India Relations. ‫ﮐﯽ ڈاﺋﺮی ﮨﮯ۔‬

Bisaria served in Islamabad for 20 months before ‫ ﻣﺎہ ﺗﮏ اﺳﻼم آﺑﺎد ﻣﯿﮟ ﺧﺪﻣﺎت اﻧﺠﺎم دﯾﮟ اور‬20 ‫ﺑﺴﺎرﯾﮧ ﻧﮯ‬
being summarily ‘expelled’ in 2019 — the first ‫ اس ﺑﮯ ﻋﺰﺗﯽ‬- ‫ ﻣﯿﮟ ﻣﺨﺘﺼﺮ ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ 'ﻧﮑﺎﻟﮯ' ﺟﺎﻧﮯ ﺳﮯ ﭘﮩﻠﮯ‬2019
among his 24 predecessors to suffer this indignity. ‫ ﭘﯿﺸﺮوؤں ﻣﯿﮟ ﺳﮯ ﭘﮩﻠﮯ۔‬24 ‫ﮐﺎ ﺷﮑﺎر ﮨﻮﻧﮯ واﻟﮯ اﭘﻨﮯ‬

His book is the most comprehensive survey to date


of the first seven years in a conflict that could well ‫ان ﮐﯽ ﮐﺘﺎب ﭘﮩﻠﮯ ﺳﺎت ﺳﺎﻟﻮں ﻣﯿﮟ اس ﺗﻨﺎزﻋﮧ ﻣﯿﮟ اب ﺗﮏ ﮐﺎ ﺳﺐ‬
‫ﺳﮯ ﺟﺎﻣﻊ ﺳﺮوے ﮨﮯ ﺟﻮ اﯾﮏ ﺳﻨﭽﺮی اﺳﮑﻮر ﮐﺮ ﺳﮑﺘﺎ ﮨﮯ۔ ﯾﮧ‬
score a century. It is structured to cover seven
‫ ﺗﮏ ﺳﺎت دﮨﺎﺋﯿﻮں اور ﮐﭽﮫ ﺳﺎﻟﻮں ﭘﺮ ﻣﺤﯿﻂ ﮨﮯ۔‬2023 ‫ ﺳﮯ‬1947
decades and some years, from 1947 into 2023. It
could carry the subtitle ‘Seven Pillars of Unwisdom’.
‫ﭘﺎک رﮨﻨﻤﺎؤں ﮐﮯ درﻣﯿﺎن ﮐﯿﻤﺴﭩﺮی ﻧﮯ‬-‫ﺑﺴﺎرﯾﮧ ﻧﮯ ﻧﻮٹ ﮐﯿﺎ ﮐﮧ ﮨﻨﺪ‬
Bisaria notes that the chemistry between Indo-Pak
‫اﻣﯿﺪﯾﮟ ﺟﮕﺎﺋﯿﮟ۔‬
leaders raised hopes.

According to him, three ideas “of identity, territory,


‫ ﻋﻼﻗﮧ اور ﺳﻼﻣﺘﯽ ﮐﮯ ﺗﯿﻦ ﺗﺼﻮرات ﻧﮯ‬،‫ "ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ‬،‫ان ﮐﮯ ﺑﻘﻮل‬
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and security have populated scholarship on the ‫ﺑﺮﺻﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﯿﮟ اﺳﮑﺎﻟﺮﺷﭗ ﮐﻮ آﺑﺎد ﮐﯿﺎ ﮨﮯ"۔ وہ اس ﮐﯽ داﺳﺘﺎن ﻣﯿﮟ‬
subcontinent”. They recur in his narrative. He tells ‫دﮨﺮاﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ وہ ﮨﻤﯿﮟ ﺑﺘﺎﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ ﮐﮧ ’’ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﻣﯿﮟ ﺗﻤﺎم ﮨﻨﺪوﺳﺘﺎﻧﯽ‬
us that “a lesson all Indian envoys to Pakistan learn ‫ ﮨﻨﺪوﺳﺘﺎن ﻣﯿﮟ‬:‫ﺳﻔﯿﺮوں ﮐﻮ ﮐﺴﯽ ﻧﮧ ﮐﺴﯽ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﭘﺮ ﺳﺒﻖ ﻣﻠﺘﺎ ﮨﮯ‬
at some point or the other: Pakistan policy in India ‫ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﯽ ﭘﺎﻟﯿﺴﯽ ذاﺗﯽ ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ ﮨﻨﺪوﺳﺘﺎن ﮐﮯ وزﯾﺮ اﻋﻈﻢ ﮐﮯ‬
is driven personally by India’s prime minister”. ‫ذرﯾﻌﮧ ﭼﻼﺋﯽ ﺟﺎﺗﯽ ﮨﮯ‘‘۔‬

Since independence, India has drawn its elected


PMs from the same democratic pool, installed by ‫ ﮨﻨﺪوﺳﺘﺎن ﻧﮯ اﭘﻨﮯ ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ وزﯾﺮ اﻋﻈﻢ ﮐﻮ اﺳﯽ‬،‫آزادی ﮐﮯ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺳﮯ‬
popular vote. The PM’s authority is unequivocal, ‫ ﺟﻮ ﻣﻘﺒﻮل ووﭨﻮں ﺳﮯ ﻧﺼﺐ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ ﭘﯽ‬،‫ﺟﻤﮩﻮری ﭘﻮل ﺳﮯ ﻧﮑﺎﻻ ﮨﮯ‬
except in the instance of the paloo-tied control ‫ ﺳﻮاﺋﮯ اس ﮐﮯ ﮐﮧ ﺳﻮﻧﯿﺎ ﮔﺎﻧﺪﮬﯽ ﻧﮯ‬،‫اﯾﻢ ﮐﺎ اﺧﺘﯿﺎر ﻏﯿﺮ واﺿﺢ ﮨﮯ‬
exercised by Sonia Gandhi during PM Manmohan ‫ﭘﯽ اﯾﻢ ﻣﻨﻤﻮﮨﻦ ﺳﻨﮕﮫ ﮐﮯ دور ﻣﯿﮟ ﭘﺎﻟﻮ ﺳﮯ ﺑﻨﺪﮬﮯ ﮨﻮﺋﮯ ﮐﻨﭩﺮول ﮐﺎ‬
Singh’s tenure. In contrast, leadership in Pakistan ‫ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﻣﯿﮟ ﻗﯿﺎدت ﮔﻮرﻧﺮ‬،‫اﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﮐﯿﺎ ﺗﮭﺎ۔ اس ﮐﮯ ﺑﺮﻋﮑﺲ‬
has passed from governors general, to nominated ‫ ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ وزﯾﺮ اﻋﻈﻢ ﮐﮯ‬،‫ ﻧﺎﻣﺰد ﯾﺎ ﺧﻮد ﺳﺎﺧﺘﮧ ﺻﺪارت‬،‫ﺟﻨﺮل ﺳﮯ‬
or self-appointed presidencies, to selected PMs. ‫ﭘﺎس ﮔﺌﯽ ﮨﮯ۔‬

Many of them have articulated their views on


foreign policy. None has done so as poetically as ‫ان ﻣﯿﮟ ﺳﮯ ﮐﺌﯽ ﻧﮯ ﺧﺎرﺟﮧ ﭘﺎﻟﯿﺴﯽ ﭘﺮ اﭘﻨﮯ ﺧﯿﺎﻻت ﮐﺎ اﻇﮩﺎر ﮐﯿﺎ‬
the late PM A.B. Vajpayee: “The tools of diplomacy ‫ﮨﮯ۔ ﻣﺮﺣﻮم ﭘﯽ اﯾﻢ اے ﺑﯽ ﮐﯽ ﻃﺮح ﺷﺎﻋﺮاﻧﮧ اﻧﺪاز ﻣﯿﮟ ﮐﺴﯽ ﻧﮯ‬
‫ اور‬،‫ آﻧﮑﮭﯿﮟ‬،‫ "ﺳﻔﺎرت ﮐﺎری ﮐﮯ اوزار اﻟﻔﺎظ‬:‫ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﮐﯿﺎ۔ واﺟﭙﺎﺋﯽ‬
are words, eyes, and signs;/ Words, eyes, and signs;
/‫ اور ﻧﺸﺎﻧﯿﺎں؛ ﻧﯿﺰ ﮐﺎﻧﭩﮯ اور ﭼﺎﻗﻮ؛‬،‫ آﻧﮑﮭﯿﮟ‬،‫ اﻟﻔﺎظ‬/‫ﻧﺸﺎﻧﯿﺎں ﮨﯿﮟ؛‬
plus forks and knives;/ First you shake hands,/
"‫ ﭘﮭﺮ ﺗﻮﺑﮧ ﻣﯿﮟ ﻣﺮوڑو۔‬/،‫ﭘﮩﻠﮯ ﺗﻢ ﻣﺼﺎﻓﺤﮧ ﮐﺮو‬
Then wring them in repentance.”

Bisaria notes that personal chemistry between


‫ﺑﺴﺎرﯾﮧ ﻧﻮٹ ﮐﺮﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ ﮐﮧ ﺑﺮﺻﻐﯿﺮ ﮐﮯ رﮨﻨﻤﺎؤں ﮐﮯ درﻣﯿﺎن ذاﺗﯽ‬
subcontinental leaders has often raised their
‫ "رﮨﻨﻤﺎؤں‬:‫ﮐﯿﻤﺴﭩﺮی ﻧﮯ اﮐﺜﺮ ان ﮐﮯ ﻟﻮﮔﻮں ﮐﯽ اﻣﯿﺪوں ﮐﻮ ﺑﮍﮬﺎﯾﺎ ﮨﮯ‬
people’s hopes: “Duos of leaders had held great
‫ ﺿﯿﺎ اور‬:[…] ‫ﮐﯽ ﺟﻮڑی ﻧﮯ ﮐﺎﻣﯿﺎﺑﯿﻮں ﮐﮯ ﺑﮍے وﻋﺪے ﮐﯿﮯ ﺗﮭﮯ‬
promise of breakthroughs […]: Zia and Rajiv, Benazir
،‫ ﺷﺮﯾﻒ اور واﺟﭙﺎﺋﯽ‬،‫ ﺷﺮﯾﻒ اور ﮔﺠﺮال‬،‫ ﺑﮯ ﻧﻈﯿﺮ اور راﺟﯿﻮ‬،‫راﺟﯿﻮ‬
and Rajiv, Sharif and Gujral, Sharif and Vajpayee,
‫ اﯾﺴﺎ ﻟﮕﺘﺎ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ ﺗﻌﻤﯿﺮی ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻟﯿﺖ‬،‫ﯾﮩﺎں ﺗﮏ ﮐﮧ ﺷﺮﯾﻒ اور ﻣﻮدی‬
even Sharif and Modi, seemed to signal new phases
‫ﮐﮯ ﻧﺌﮯ ﻣﺮاﺣﻞ ﮐﺎ اﺷﺎرہ ﮐﺮﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬
of constructive engagement.”

He recalls: “In the 1960s, Rajeshwar Dayal managed


to persuade Nehru to give Ayub Khan a chance,
‫ راﺟﯿﺸﻮر دﯾﺎل ﻧﮩﺮو ﮐﻮ‬،‫ ﮐﯽ دﮨﺎﺋﯽ ﻣﯿﮟ‬1960’’ :‫وہ ﯾﺎد ﮐﺮﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ‬
despite Nehru’s instinctive suspicion of the dictator. ،‫اﯾﻮب ﺧﺎن ﮐﻮ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ دﯾﻨﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﻗﺎﺋﻞ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﻣﯿﮟ ﮐﺎﻣﯿﺎب ﮨﻮ ﮔﺌﮯ‬
Natwar Singh became an advocate for Zia in the ‫ﺑﺎوﺟﻮد اس ﮐﮯ ﮐﮧ ﻧﮩﺮو ﮐﮯ ڈﮐﭩﯿﭩﺮ ﭘﺮ ﻓﻄﺮی ﺷﮑﻮک و ﺷﺒﮩﺎت ﺗﮭﮯ۔‬
1980s despite Mrs Gandhi’s aversion to him. ‫ ﮐﯽ‬1980 ‫ﻣﺴﺰ ﮔﺎﻧﺪﮬﯽ ﮐﮯ ان ﺳﮯ ﻧﻔﺮت ﮐﮯ ﺑﺎوﺟﻮد ﻧﭩﻮر ﺳﻨﮕﮫ‬
Pakistan’s envoy Jehangir Qazi, through his quiet ‫دﮨﺎﺋﯽ ﻣﯿﮟ ﺿﯿﺎء ﮐﮯ وﮐﯿﻞ ﺑﻦ ﮔﺌﮯ۔ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﮯ اﯾﻠﭽﯽ ﺟﮩﺎﻧﮕﯿﺮ‬
diplomacy with Advani, managed to get the Agra ‫ اﯾﮉواﻧﯽ ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ اﭘﻨﯽ ﺧﺎﻣﻮش ﺳﻔﺎرت ﮐﺎری ﮐﮯ ذرﯾﻌﮯ‬،‫ﻗﺎﺿﯽ‬
Summit of 2001 in place giving Musharraf a chance ‫ ﮐﯽ آﮔﺮہ ﺳﻤﭧ ﻣﯿﮟ ﻣﺸﺮف ﮐﻮ اﭘﻨﺎ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﮧ ﭘﯿﺶ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﺎ‬2001
to make his case.” ‫ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﻓﺮاﮨﻢ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﻣﯿﮟ ﮐﺎﻣﯿﺎب ﮨﻮﺋﮯ۔‬

He singles out Vajpayee for his “sincerity and


balanced approach” towards Pakistan. Amongst ‫اﻧﮩﻮں ﻧﮯ واﺟﭙﺎﺋﯽ ﮐﻮ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﮯ ﺑﺎرے ﻣﯿﮟ ان ﮐﮯ "ﺧﻠﻮص اور‬
Pakistani leaders, he thinks “Zia was perhaps the ‫ ان‬،‫ﻣﺘﻮازن ﻧﻘﻄﮧ ﻧﻈﺮ" ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﻧﻤﺎﯾﺎں ﮐﯿﺎ۔ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎﻧﯽ رﮨﻨﻤﺎؤں ﻣﯿﮟ‬
most consummate diplomat for Pakistan who tried ‫ﮐﮯ ﺧﯿﺎل ﻣﯿﮟ "ﺿﯿﺎء ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﺷﺎﯾﺪ ﺳﺐ ﺳﮯ زﯾﺎدہ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ‬
to sweet-talk India while running a nuclear ‫ﺳﻔﺎرت ﮐﺎر ﺗﮭﮯ ﺟﻨﮩﻮں ﻧﮯ ﮨﻨﺪوﺳﺘﺎن ﮐﮯ ﭘﻨﺠﺎب ﻣﯿﮟ اﯾﭩﻤﯽ‬
programme and a jihad” in India’s Punjab. ‫ﭘﺮوﮔﺮام اور ﺟﮩﺎد ﭼﻼﺗﮯ ﮨﻮﺋﮯ ﮨﻨﺪوﺳﺘﺎن ﺳﮯ ﻣﯿﭩﮭﯽ ﺑﺎﺗﯿﮟ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ‬
‫ﮐﯽ ﮐﻮﺷﺶ ﮐﯽ"۔‬
Bisaria remembers PM Singh’s remarks in 2006
that “borders cannot be redrawn, but we can work ‫ ﻣﯿﮟ ﭘﯽ اﯾﻢ ﺳﻨﮕﮫ ﮐﮯ رﯾﻤﺎرﮐﺲ ﮐﻮ ﯾﺎد ﮐﯿﺎ ﮐﮧ‬2006 ‫ﺑﺴﺎرﯾﮧ ﻧﮯ‬
towards making them irrelevant [,] just lines on a ‫ ﻟﯿﮑﻦ ﮨﻢ ان ﮐﻮ ﻏﯿﺮ‬،‫"ﺳﺮﺣﺪوں ﮐﻮ دوﺑﺎرہ ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﮐﮭﯿﻨﭽﺎ ﺟﺎ ﺳﮑﺘﺎ‬

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map”. Singh’s sponsorship of the Satish Lambah/ ‫[ ﺻﺮف ﻧﻘﺸﮯ ﭘﺮ ﻻﺋﻨﯿﮟ"۔‬،] ‫ﻣﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻨﺎﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﮐﺎم ﮐﺮ ﺳﮑﺘﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ‬
Tariq Aziz plan came as close to a working formula ‫ﭘﺎک‬-‫ﻃﺎرق ﻋﺰﯾﺰ ﮐﮯ ﻣﻨﺼﻮﺑﮯ ﮐﯽ ﮐﻔﺎﻟﺖ ﮨﻨﺪ‬/‫ﺳﻨﮕﮫ ﮐﯽ ﺳﺘﯿﺶ ﻻﻣﺒﺎ‬
for Indo-Pak ties as the two nations will ever reach. ‫ﺗﻌﻠﻘﺎت ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﮐﺎم ﮐﺮﻧﮯ واﻟﮯ ﻓﺎرﻣﻮﻟﮯ ﮐﮯ اﺗﻨﮯ ﻗﺮﯾﺐ ﭘﮩﻨﭽﯽ ﺟﺲ‬
On taking over, PM Modi shelved it. In former HC ‫ﻃﺮح دوﻧﻮں ﻣﻤﺎﻟﮏ ﮐﺒﮭﯽ ﺑﮭﯽ ﭘﮩﻨﭽﯿﮟ ﮔﮯ۔ اﻗﺘﺪار ﺳﻨﺒﮭﺎﻟﺘﮯ ﮨﯽ‬
Shivshankar Menon’s words, “the two countries fell ‫ﭘﯽ اﯾﻢ ﻣﻮدی ﻧﮯ اﺳﮯ روک دﯾﺎ۔ ﺳﺎﺑﻖ اﯾﭻ ﺳﯽ ﺷﯿﻮﺷﻨﮑﺮ ﻣﯿﻨﻦ ﮐﮯ‬
into a repetitive pattern or dance of engagement ‫ "دوﻧﻮں ﻣﻤﺎﻟﮏ اﯾﮏ ﺑﺎر ﺑﺎر ﭼﻠﻨﮯ واﻟﮯ اﻧﺪاز ﯾﺎ‬،‫اﻟﻔﺎظ ﻣﯿﮟ‬
and disruption”. ‫ﻣﺼﺮوﻓﯿﺖ اور ﺧﻠﻞ ﮐﮯ رﻗﺺ ﻣﯿﮟ ﭘﮍ ﮔﺌﮯ"۔‬

It is to Bisaria’s credit that, despite being “more of a


Europe and Russia hand”, he accepted the ‫ "زﯾﺎدہ ﺳﮯ زﯾﺎدہ ﯾﻮرپ اور روس‬،‫ﺑﺴﺎرﯾﮧ ﮐﻮ ﯾﮧ ﮐﺮﯾﮉٹ ﺟﺎﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ‬
Islamabad assignment with courage. He describes ‫ اﻧﮩﻮں ﻧﮯ اﺳﻼم آﺑﺎد ﮐﯽ ذﻣﮧ داری ﮨﻤﺖ‬،‫ﮐﺎ ﮨﺎﺗﮫ" ﮨﻮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﺑﺎوﺟﻮد‬
his life there as “never lonely”. “Followed ‫ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ ﻗﺒﻮل ﮐﯽ۔ وہ وﮨﺎں اﭘﻨﯽ زﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﮐﻮ "ﮐﺒﮭﯽ ﺗﻨﮩﺎ ﻧﮩﯿﮟ" ﮐﮯ‬
everywhere, watched closely, photographed on cell ،‫ ﻗﺮﯾﺐ ﺳﮯ دﯾﮑﮭﺎ‬،‫ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ ﺑﯿﺎن ﮐﺮﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ۔ "ﮨﺮ ﺟﮕﮧ ﮐﯽ ﭘﯿﺮوی ﮐﯽ‬
phones by swarms of men in shalwar kameez, ‫ﺷﻠﻮار ﻗﻤﯿﺾ ﻣﯿﮟ ﻣﺮدوں ﮐﮯ ﮨﺠﻮم ﻧﮯ ﺳﯿﻞ ﻓﻮن ﭘﺮ ﺗﺼﻮﯾﺮ‬
Indian diplomats become either peaceniks or ‫ ﮨﻨﺪوﺳﺘﺎﻧﯽ ﺳﻔﺎرت ﮐﺎر ﯾﺎ ﺗﻮ اﻣﻦ ﭘﺴﻨﺪ ﺑﻦ ﺟﺎﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ ﯾﺎ‬،‫ﮐﮭﻨﭽﻮاﺋﯽ‬
hawks [:] seldom left in the middle.” "‫[ ﺷﺎذ و ﻧﺎدر ﮨﯽ ﺑﯿﭻ ﻣﯿﮟ رہ ﺟﺎﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬:]

Bisaria offers his successor nine unequal pillars of


wisdom: cross-border security, coincidence of ‫ﺑﺴﺎرﯾﮧ اﭘﻨﮯ ﺟﺎﻧﺸﯿﻦ ﮐﻮ ﺣﮑﻤﺖ ﮐﮯ ﻧﻮ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺴﺎوی ﺳﺘﻮن ﭘﯿﺶ‬
leadership, safe diplomacy, the role of global forces ‫ ﻣﺤﻔﻮظ ﺳﻔﺎرت‬،‫ ﻗﯿﺎدت ﮐﺎ اﺗﻔﺎق‬،‫ ﺳﺮﺣﺪ ﭘﺎر ﺳﯿﮑﯿﻮرﭨﯽ‬:‫ﮐﺮﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ‬
and multilateral institutions, aspirations of the ‫ ﻋﻮام ﮐﯽ‬،‫ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﯽ ﻗﻮﺗﻮں اور ﮐﺜﯿﺮ ﺟﮩﺘﯽ اداروں ﮐﺎ ﮐﺮدار‬،‫ﮐﺎری‬
people, quarantining territorial disagreements, ‫ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﮯ ﻏﯿﺮ‬،‫ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺋﯽ اﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎت ﮐﻮ ﻗﺮﻧﻄﯿﻦ ﮐﺮﻧﺎ‬،‫اﻣﻨﮕﯿﮟ‬
accepting Pakistan’s volatile structure of ‫ اﻗﻠﯿﺘﯽ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ اور ﺗﻌﻠﻘﺎت‬،‫ﻣﺴﺘﺤﮑﻢ ﻃﺮز ﺣﮑﻤﺮاﻧﯽ ﮐﻮ ﻗﺒﻮل ﮐﺮﻧﺎ‬
governance, minority issues and economic aspects .‫ﮐﮯ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﭘﮩﻠﻮؤں‬
of the relationship.

Peering into August 2047, when India and Pakistan ‫ ﺟﺐ ﮨﻨﺪوﺳﺘﺎن اور ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن‬،‫ ﻣﯿﮟ ﺟﮭﺎﻧﮑﺘﮯ ﮨﻮﺋﮯ‬2047 ‫اﮔﺴﺖ‬
will celebrate a centenary of independence from ‫ ﺑﺴﺎرﯾﮧ ﻧﮯ‬،‫اﯾﮏ دوﺳﺮے ﺳﮯ آزادی ﮐﯽ ﺻﺪ ﺳﺎﻟﮧ ﺟﺸﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺋﯿﮟ ﮔﮯ‬
each other, Bisaria sees three scenarios: “Business ‫ " ﻣﻌﻤﻮل ﮐﮯ ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﮐﺎروﺑﺎر؛ ﻣﺸﺮوط اﻣﯿﺪ‬:‫ﺗﯿﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﺮﻧﺎﻣﮯ دﯾﮑﮭﮯ‬
as usual; conditional optimism; and conditional ".‫ﭘﺮﺳﺘﯽ؛ اور ﻣﺸﺮوط ﻣﺎﯾﻮﺳﯽ‬
pessimism.”
‫ﺟﻮ ﻟﻮگ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﯽ آﺋﺮﻟﯿﻨﮉ ﭘﺮ ﮨﻮﻧﮯ واﻟﯽ ﺟﺪوﺟﮩﺪ ﮐﻮ ﯾﺎد ﮐﺮﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ‬
Those who recall the struggles over Northern
‫اﻧﮩﯿﮟ اس وﻗﺖ ﮐﮯ ﺑﺮﻃﺎﻧﻮی وزﯾﺮ اﻋﻈﻢ ﺟﺎن ﻣﯿﺠﺮ ﮐﺎ ﺟﻮاب ﯾﺎد‬
Ireland may remember the response of the then
‫ﮨﻮﮔﺎ ﺟﺐ ان ﺳﮯ ﭘﻮﭼﮭﺎ ﮔﯿﺎ ﺗﮭﺎ ﮐﮧ آﺋﺮش ﺳﻮال ﮐﺎ ان ﮐﺎ ﺣﻞ ﮐﯿﺎ‬
British PM John Major when he was asked what his
‫ "ﮨﻢ ﺗﯿﻦ ﭼﯿﺰوں ﻣﯿﮟ ﺳﮯ اﯾﮏ ﮐﺮ ﺳﮑﺘﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ ﮨﻢ ﭘﯿﭽﮭﮯ ﮐﯽ‬:‫ﺗﮭﺎ‬
solution for the Irish question was: “We can do one
‫ ﯾﺎ ﺟﮩﺎں ﮨﯿﮟ وﮨﯿﮟ رہ ﺳﮑﺘﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ ﻧﮧ ﮨﯽ ﮐﻮﺋﯽ‬،‫ﻃﺮف ﺟﺎ ﺳﮑﺘﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ‬
of three things. We can go backwards, or stay
"‫ﭘﺎﻟﯿﺴﯽ ﮨﮯ۔ ﯾﺎ ﮨﻢ آﮔﮯ ﺑﮍھ ﺳﮑﺘﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬
where we are. Neither is a policy. Or we can go
forward.”

By the end of February, there should be a new


‫ﻓﺮوری ﮐﮯ اواﺧﺮ ﺗﮏ اﺳﻼم آﺑﺎد ﻣﯿﮟ اﯾﮏ ﻧﺌﯽ ﺣﮑﻮﻣﺖ )ﻗﯿﺎم ﻧﻮاز‬
government (conceivably led by Nawaz Sharif) in
،‫ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ‬،‫ ﺗﮏ‬2024 ‫ﺷﺮﯾﻒ ﮐﯽ ﻗﯿﺎدت ﻣﯿﮟ( ﺑﻦ ﺟﺎﺋﮯ۔ ﺟﻮن‬
Islamabad. By June 2024, predictably, Narendra
‫ﻧﺮﯾﻨﺪر ﻣﻮدی ﺗﯿﺴﺮی ﻣﺪت ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ واﭘﺲ آ ﺟﺎﺋﯿﮟ ﮔﮯ۔ وہ ﮨﻤﯿﮟ ﮐﺲ‬
Modi will have returned to serve a third term. In ‫ ﯾﺎ‬،‫ ﺗﺎرﯾﺦ ﻣﯿﮟ دﮬﻨﺴﯽ ﮨﻮﺋﯽ‬،‫ ﭘﯿﭽﮭﮯ ﮐﯽ ﻃﺮف‬:‫ﺳﻤﺖ ﻟﮯ ﺟﺎﺋﯿﮟ ﮔﮯ‬
which direction will they take us: backwards, mired ‫آﮔﮯ؟‬
in history, or forward?

The writer is an author.


www.fsaijazuddin.pk
Published in Dawn, February 1st, 2024

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The return of Nawaz Sharif ‫ﻧ ﻮ ا ز ﺷ ﺮﯾ ﻒ ﮐ ﯽ و اﭘﺴ ﯽ‬


Khurram Husain ‫ﺧﺮم ﺣﺴﯿﻦ‬
The writer is a business and economy journalist. ‫ﻣﺼﻨﻒ ﮐﺎروﺑﺎری اور اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺻﺤﺎﻓﯽ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬

OF all the comebacks he has mounted since his ‫ ﺳﺎل ﺳﮯ زﯾﺎدہ ﭘﮩﻠﮯ اﻗﺘﺪار ﺳﮯ اﭘﻨﯽ ﭘﮩﻠﯽ ﺑﮯ دﺧﻠﯽ ﮐﮯ ﺑﻌﺪ‬30
first ouster from power more than 30 years ago, the ‫ ان ﻣﯿﮟ ﺳﮯ ﺗﺎزہ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺳﺐ ﺳﮯ‬،‫ﺳﮯ اس ﻧﮯ ﺟﻮ ﺑﮭﯽ واﭘﺴﯽ ﮐﯽ ﮨﮯ‬
latest one has been the most improbable. ‫زﯾﺎدہ ﻧﺎﻣﻤﮑﻦ ﮨﮯ۔‬

The odds that Nawaz Sharif will be forming the next


government after the Feb 8 elections are rising, ‫ ﻓﺮوری ﮐﮯ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت ﮐﮯ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻧﻮاز ﺷﺮﯾﻒ ﮐﯽ اﮔﻠﯽ ﺣﮑﻮﻣﺖ ﺑﻨﻨﮯ‬8
although it cannot be known with any certainty at ‫ ﺣﺎﻻﻧﮑﮧ اس ﻣﺮﺣﻠﮯ ﭘﺮ ﯾﻘﯿﻦ ﺳﮯ‬،‫ﮐﮯ اﻣﮑﺎﻧﺎت ﺑﮍﮬﺘﮯ ﺟﺎ رﮨﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ‬
this stage. Even if he is not the prime minister ‫ﮐﭽﮫ ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﮐﮩﺎ ﺟﺎ ﺳﮑﺘﺎ۔ اﮔﺮ وہ ﺧﻮد وزﯾﺮ اﻋﻈﻢ ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﮨﯿﮟ ﺗﻮ ﺑﮭﯽ‬
himself, chances are whoever assumes the position ‫اﻣﮑﺎﻧﺎت ﮨﯿﮟ ﮐﮧ ﺟﻮ ﺑﮭﯽ ﯾﮧ ﻋﮩﺪہ ﺳﻨﺒﮭﺎﻟﮯ ﮔﺎ وہ ان ﮐﯽ آﺷﯿﺮﺑﺎد‬
will do so with his blessings. ‫ﺳﮯ ﮐﺮے ﮔﺎ۔‬

The tide has been turning in his favour in slow


motion for months now, but the coming weeks will
see an acceleration. It began with the ‫ﺟﻮار اب ﻣﮩﯿﻨﻮں ﺳﮯ ﺳﺴﺖ رﻓﺘﺎر ﻣﯿﮟ اس ﮐﮯ ﺣﻖ ﻣﯿﮟ ﺑﺪل رﮨﺎ‬
‫ ﻟﯿﮑﻦ آﻧﮯ واﻟﮯ ﮨﻔﺘﻮں ﻣﯿﮟ اس ﻣﯿﮟ ﺗﯿﺰی ﻧﻈﺮ آﺋﮯ ﮔﯽ۔ اس ﮐﺎ‬،‫ﮨﮯ‬
announcement of the date of his return to Pakistan
‫آﻏﺎز ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒًﺎ ﭘﺎﻧﭻ ﺳﺎل ﮐﯽ ﺟﻼوﻃﻨﯽ ﮐﮯ ﺑﻌﺪ ان ﮐﯽ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن واﭘﺴﯽ‬
after almost five years of exile. Next came the day
‫ﮐﯽ ﺗﺎرﯾﺦ ﮐﮯ اﻋﻼن ﺳﮯ ﮨﻮا۔ اس ﮐﮯ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻻﮨﻮر ﻣﯿﮟ ان ﮐﯽ واﭘﺴﯽ‬
of his return and first rally in Lahore, in which he laid
‫ ﺟﺲ ﻣﯿﮟ اﻧﮩﻮں ﻧﮯ ﻣﮩﻨﮕﺎﺋﯽ اور ﺑﮯ‬،‫اور ﭘﮩﻠﯽ رﯾﻠﯽ ﮐﺎ دن آﯾﺎ‬
out his credentials as the prime minister most ‫روزﮔﺎری ﺳﮯ ﻟﭙﭩﮯ ﮨﻮﺋﮯ ﻣﻠﮏ ﮐﯽ ﺗﺮﻗﯽ اور ﺗﺮﻗﯽ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﺳﺐ ﺳﮯ‬
suited to deliver development and growth for a ‫زﯾﺎدہ ﻣﻮزوں وزﯾﺮ اﻋﻈﻢ ﮐﮯ ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ اﭘﻨﯽ اﺳﻨﺎد ﭘﯿﺶ ﮐﯿﮟ۔‬
country wracked by inflation and unemployment

Then came the brief interlude of bargaining for


distribution of party tickets, seat adjustments with ‫ دوڑ ﻣﯿﮟ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ دﯾﮕﺮ‬،‫اس ﮐﮯ ﺑﻌﺪ ﭘﺎرﭨﯽ ﭨﮑﭩﻮں ﮐﯽ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ‬
other parties in the running, and laying down the ‫ اور آﻧﮯ واﻟﮯ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﯽ‬،‫ﺟﻤﺎﻋﺘﻮں ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ ﺳﯿﭧ اﯾﮉﺟﺴﭩﻤﻨﭧ‬
order of battle for the coming electoral contest. And ‫ﻣﻌﺮﮐﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﺟﻨﮓ ﮐﯽ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﻃﮯ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﺳﻮدے ﺑﺎزی ﮐﺎ‬
as the last of the doubts over whether or not the ‫ﻣﺨﺘﺼﺮ وﻗﻔﮧ آﯾﺎ۔ اور اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت ﮨﻮﻧﮯ ﯾﺎ ﻧﮧ ﮨﻮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﺑﺎرے ﻣﯿﮟ‬
elections would be held were finally removed, once ‫ اﯾﮏ ﺑﺎر ﺟﺐ ﺳﭙﺮﯾﻢ‬،‫ﺷﮑﻮک و ﺷﺒﮩﺎت ﮐﮯ آﺧﺮی دور ﮐﮯ ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ‬
the Supreme Court stripped his main rival, the PTI, ‫ ﭘﯽ ﭨﯽ آﺋﯽ ﺳﮯ اس ﮐﺎ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﯽ‬،‫ﮐﻮرٹ ﻧﮯ ان ﮐﮯ ﻣﺮﮐﺰی ﺣﺮﯾﻒ‬
of its election symbol, the campaigning began. ‫ ﺗﻮ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﮩﻢ ﺷﺮوع ﮨﻮ ﮔﺌﯽ۔‬،‫ﻧﺸﺎن ﭼﮭﯿﻦ ﻟﯿﺎ‬

Listen to his campaign speeches and you will see


the strategy at play here. He is doing two things in ‫ان ﮐﯽ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﮩﻢ ﮐﯽ ﺗﻘﺎرﯾﺮ ﺳﻨﯿﮟ اور آپ ﮐﻮ ﯾﮩﺎں ﭘﺮ ﺣﮑﻤﺖ‬
his rallies. First is connecting with voters and the ‫ﻋﻤﻠﯽ ﻧﻈﺮ آﺋﮯ ﮔﯽ۔ وہ اﭘﻨﮯ ﺟﻠﺴﻮں ﻣﯿﮟ دو ﮐﺎم ﮐﺮ رﮨﺎ ﮨﮯ۔ ﭘﮩﻼ‬
second is asserting the old patronage machines ‫ووﭨﺮوں ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ ﺟﮍﻧﺎ اور دوﺳﺮا ﭘﺮاﻧﯽ ﺳﺮﭘﺮﺳﺘﯽ ﮐﯽ ﻣﺸﯿﻨﻮں ﭘﺮ‬
that run the rural or peri-urban constituencies he ‫زور دﯾﻨﺎ ﺟﻮ دﯾﮩﯽ ﯾﺎ ﭘﯿﺮی ﺷﮩﺮی ﺣﻠﻘﻮں ﮐﻮ ﭼﻼﺗﯽ ﮨﯿﮟ ﺟﻦ ﭘﺮ اس‬
has mainly focused his campaign energies on so ‫ﻧﮯ اب ﺗﮏ اﭘﻨﯽ ﻣﮩﻢ ﮐﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺎﺋﯿﻮں ﮐﻮ ﺑﻨﯿﺎدی ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ ﻣﺮﮐﻮز ﮐﯿﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬
far. To voters he is asking questions like ‘how much ‫ ﻣﯿﮟ ﺟﺐ‬2017' ‫ووﭨﺮوں ﺳﮯ وہ ﺳﻮاﻻت ﭘﻮﭼﮫ رﮨﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ ﺟﯿﺴﮯ ﮐﮧ‬
did one roti cost when I left in 2017? How much ‫ﻣﯿﮟ ﻧﮯ ﭼﮭﻮڑا ﺗﻮ اﯾﮏ روﭨﯽ ﮐﯽ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ﮐﺘﻨﯽ ﺗﮭﯽ؟ ﺑﺠﻠﯽ ﮐﺎ اﯾﮏ‬
was one unit of electricity? How much did you pay ‫ﯾﻮﻧﭧ ﮐﺘﻨﺎ ﺗﮭﺎ؟ آپ ﻧﮯ اﯾﮏ ﮐﻠﻮ ﭼﯿﻨﯽ ﮐﯽ ﮐﺘﻨﯽ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ دی؟ ﯾﻮرﯾﺎ‬
for a kilo of sugar? How much for a bag of urea ‫ﮐﮭﺎد ﮐﮯ اﯾﮏ ﺗﮭﯿﻠﮯ ﮐﺎ ﮐﺘﻨﺎ؟‬
fertiliser?’

The message Nawaz is sending out is to climb onto


his bandwagon, because soon it will be the only ‫ﻧﻮاز ﺟﻮ ﭘﯿﻐﺎم دے رﮨﺎ ﮨﮯ وہ ﯾﮧ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ وہ اﭘﻨﯽ ﺑﯿﻨﮉ وﯾﮕﻦ ﭘﺮ ﭼﮍھ‬
‫ ﮐﯿﻮﻧﮑﮧ ﺟﻠﺪ ﮨﯽ ﯾﮧ ﺷﮩﺮ ﻣﯿﮟ واﺣﺪ ﺷﻮ ﮨﻮﮔﺎ۔‬،‫ﺟﺎﺋﮯ‬
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show in town.

The list of products he reads out varies from one


constituency to another, depending on its urban or ‫وہ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﺎت ﮐﯽ ﺟﻮ ﻓﮩﺮﺳﺖ ﭘﮍﮬﺘﺎ ﮨﮯ وہ اﯾﮏ ﺣﻠﻘﮯ ﺳﮯ دوﺳﺮے‬
rural character. And for each product whose price ‫ اس ﮐﮯ ﺷﮩﺮی ﯾﺎ دﯾﮩﯽ ﮐﺮدار ﮐﮯ ﻟﺤﺎظ‬،‫ﺣﻠﻘﮯ ﻣﯿﮟ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﮨﻮﺗﯽ ﮨﮯ‬
he asks for, he asks the attendees how much they ‫ وہ‬،‫ﺳﮯ۔ اور ﮨﺮ اﯾﮏ ﭘﺮوڈﮐﭧ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﺟﺲ ﮐﯽ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ وہ ﻣﺎﻧﮕﺘﺎ ﮨﮯ‬
are paying for that commodity today. ‘Who did this ‫ﺣﺎﺿﺮﯾﻦ ﺳﮯ ﭘﻮﭼﮭﺘﺎ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ وہ آج اس ﺷﮯ ﮐﯽ ﮐﺘﻨﯽ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ ادا ﮐﺮ‬
to you?’ he asks them. ‘Who committed this ‫رﮨﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ ’’ﺗﻤﮩﺎرے ﺳﺎﺗﮫ ﯾﮧ ﮐﺲ ﻧﮯ ﮐﯿﺎ؟‘‘ وہ ان ﺳﮯ ﭘﻮﭼﮭﺘﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬
cruelty?’ he continues. ‘You should go and ask ‫'ﯾﮧ ﻇﻠﻢ ﮐﺲ ﻧﮯ ﮐﯿﺎ؟' وہ ﺟﺎری رﮐﮭﺘﺎ ﮨﮯ۔ ’’ﺗﻢ ﺟﺎ ﮐﺮ ان ﺳﮯ ﭘﻮﭼﮭﻮ‬
them, whoever did this, why did they do this to you!’ ‘‘!‫ اس ﻧﮯ ﺗﻤﮩﺎرے ﺳﺎﺗﮫ اﯾﺴﺎ ﮐﯿﻮں ﮐﯿﺎ‬،‫ ﺟﺲ ﻧﮯ ﺑﮭﯽ ﯾﮧ ﮐﯿﺎ‬،

It’s a crafty message. From 2017 till now, the


country has seen an unprecedented surge in
inflation. We can debate what caused this. I have ‫ ﺳﮯ اب ﺗﮏ ﻣﻠﮏ ﻣﯿﮟ ﻣﮩﻨﮕﺎﺋﯽ‬2017 ‫ﯾﮧ اﯾﮏ ﻣﮑﺮوہ ﭘﯿﻐﺎم ﮨﮯ۔‬
written my own views on this numerous times ‫ﻣﯿﮟ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻟﯽ اﺿﺎﻓﮧ دﯾﮑﮭﻨﮯ ﻣﯿﮟ آﯾﺎ ﮨﮯ۔ ﮨﻢ اس ﭘﺮ ﺑﺤﺚ ﮐﺮ‬
already. But for campaign purposes, it is not ‫ﺳﮑﺘﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ ﮐﮧ اس ﮐﯽ وﺟﮧ ﮐﯿﺎ ﮨﮯ۔ ﻣﯿﮟ ﭘﮩﻠﮯ ﺑﮭﯽ ﻣﺘﻌﺪد ﺑﺎر اس‬
necessary to go into why it happened. All he has to ‫ﭘﺮ اﭘﻨﮯ ﺧﯿﺎﻻت ﻟﮑﮫ ﭼﮑﺎ ﮨﻮں۔ ﻟﯿﮑﻦ ﻣﮩﻢ ﮐﮯ ﻣﻘﺎﺻﺪ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ اس‬
do is point out that it happened. And by making ‫ﻣﯿﮟ ﺟﺎﻧﮯ ﮐﯽ ﺿﺮورت ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﮐﮧ اﯾﺴﺎ ﮐﯿﻮں ﮨﻮا۔ اﺳﮯ ﺻﺮف ﯾﮧ ﺑﺘﺎﻧﺎ‬
2017 the starting point, he can glide over the fact ‫ ﮐﻮ ﻧﻘﻄﮧ آﻏﺎز ﺑﻨﺎ ﮐﺮ وہ اس ﺣﻘﯿﻘﺖ ﭘﺮ‬2017 ‫ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ ﯾﮧ ﮨﻮا ﮨﮯ۔ اور‬
that the bulk of this inflation came during the period ‫روﺷﻨﯽ ڈال ﺳﮑﺘﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ ﮐﮧ اس ﻣﮩﻨﮕﺎﺋﯽ ﮐﺎ ﺑﮍا ﺣﺼﮧ اس دور ﻣﯿﮟ‬
when Shehbaz Sharif was prime minister. ‫آﯾﺎ ﺟﺐ ﺷﮩﺒﺎز ﺷﺮﯾﻒ وزﯾﺮ اﻋﻈﻢ ﺗﮭﮯ۔‬

For narrative purposes it doesn’t matter. “I have


missed you” he said in one of his campaign ‫ﺑﯿﺎﻧﯿﮧ ﻣﻘﺎﺻﺪ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ اس ﺳﮯ ﮐﻮﺋﯽ ﻓﺮق ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﭘﮍﺗﺎ۔ "ﻣﯿﮟ ﻧﮯ آپ‬
speeches. “I have been away too long, and it hurts ‫ﮐﻮ ﯾﺎد ﮐﯿﺎ ﮨﮯ" اﻧﮩﻮں ﻧﮯ اﭘﻨﯽ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﮩﻢ ﮐﮯ اﯾﮏ ﺧﻄﺎب ﻣﯿﮟ ﮐﮩﺎ‬
me to see all that you have had to suffer while I was ‫ اور ﻣﺠﮭﮯ وہ ﺳﺐ‬،‫۔ "ﻣﯿﮟ ﺑﮩﺖ ﻃﻮﯾﻞ ﻋﺮﺻﮯ ﺳﮯ دور رﮨﺎ ﮨﻮں‬
‫دﯾﮑﮫ ﮐﺮ ﺗﮑﻠﯿﻒ ﮨﻮﺗﯽ ﮨﮯ ﺟﻮ آپ ﮐﻮ ﻣﯿﺮے دور رﮨﺘﮯ ﮨﻮﺋﮯ ﺑﮭﮕﺘﻨﺎ ﭘﮍا‬
away.” The campaign message is crafted to first
‫۔" ﻣﮩﻢ ﮐﮯ ﭘﯿﻐﺎم ﮐﻮ ﺳﺐ ﺳﮯ ﭘﮩﻠﮯ اس ﺑﺎت ﺳﮯ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ‬
connect with what is hurting voters the most: the
‫ﻟﯿﮯ ﺗﯿﺎر ﮐﯿﺎ ﮔﯿﺎ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ ووﭨﺮوں ﮐﻮ ﺳﺐ ﺳﮯ زﯾﺎدہ ﮐﺲ ﭼﯿﺰ ﮐﻮ‬
difficulty in making ends meet. In Hafizabad, for
،‫ ﺧﺘﻢ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﻣﯿﮟ دﺷﻮاری۔ ﻣﺜﺎل ﮐﮯ ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ‬:‫ﻧﻘﺼﺎن ﭘﮩﻨﭻ رﮨﺎ ﮨﮯ‬
example, a small industrial town with a large
‫ اﯾﮏ ﭼﮭﻮﭨﮯ ﺳﮯ ﺻﻨﻌﺘﯽ ﺷﮩﺮ ﺟﺲ ﻣﯿﮟ ﻣﺤﻨﺖ‬،‫ﺣﺎﻓﻆ آﺑﺎد ﻣﯿﮟ‬
working class, he told the rally-goers “there would
‫ اس ﻧﮯ رﯾﻠﯽ ﻣﯿﮟ ﺟﺎﻧﮯ واﻟﻮں ﺳﮯ‬،‫ﮐﺶ ﻃﺒﻘﮯ ﮐﺎ اﯾﮏ ﺑﮍا ﻃﺒﻘﮧ ﮨﮯ‬
be no unemployment in Hafizabad today had I not
‫ ﻣﯿﮟ ﻧﮧ ﮨﭩﺎﯾﺎ ﺟﺎﺗﺎ ﺗﻮ آج ﺣﺎﻓﻆ آﺑﺎد ﻣﯿﮟ‬2017 ‫ﮐﮩﺎ ﮐﮧ "اﮔﺮ ﻣﺠﮭﮯ‬
been removed in 2017!”
"!‫ﺑﮯ روزﮔﺎری ﻧﮧ ﮨﻮﺗﯽ‬
In Sialkot, he promised to build a new motorway
connecting that city with Lahore, after pointing out
2020 ‫ اﻧﮩﻮں ﻧﮯ ﻋﻤﺮان ﺧﺎن ﮐﮯ دور ﺣﮑﻮﻣﺖ ﻣﯿﮟ‬،‫ﺳﯿﺎﻟﮑﻮٹ ﻣﯿﮟ‬
all the deficiencies in the current one which was ‫ﻣﯿﮟ ﭨﺮﯾﻔﮏ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﮐﮭﻮﻟﯽ ﺟﺎﻧﮯ واﻟﯽ ﻣﻮﺟﻮدہ ﻣﻮﭨﺮوے ﻣﯿﮟ‬
opened to traffic in 2020, during Imran Khan’s ‫ﻣﻮﺟﻮد ﺗﻤﺎم ﺧﺎﻣﯿﻮں ﮐﯽ ﻧﺸﺎﻧﺪﮨﯽ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﺑﻌﺪ اس ﺷﮩﺮ ﮐﻮ ﻻﮨﻮر‬
tenure. In Mansehra, he promised a railway stop ‫ﺳﮯ ﻣﻼﻧﮯ واﻟﯽ اﯾﮏ ﻧﺌﯽ ﻣﻮﭨﺮ وے ﺑﻨﺎﻧﮯ ﮐﺎ وﻋﺪہ ﮐﯿﺎ۔ ﻣﺎﻧﺴﮩﺮہ‬
once the revamped railroad under the CPEC ML1 ‫ ﭘﺮاﺟﯿﮑﭧ ﮐﮯ ﺗﺤﺖ دوﺑﺎرہ ﺗﻌﻤﯿﺮ ﺷﺪہ‬CPEC ML1 ‫ اﻧﮩﻮں ﻧﮯ‬،‫ﻣﯿﮟ‬
project is completed — it is an $8 billion-plus ‫ ﯾﮧ‬- ‫رﯾﻞ روڈ ﻣﮑﻤﻞ ﮨﻮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﺑﻌﺪ اﯾﮏ رﯾﻠﻮے اﺳﭩﺎپ ﮐﺎ وﻋﺪہ ﮐﯿﺎ‬
project. In Vehari, he casually threw in a medical ‫ اس ﻧﮯ اﺗﻔﺎق ﺳﮯ‬،‫ ﺑﻠﯿﻦ ﺳﮯ زﯾﺎدہ ﮐﺎ ﻣﻨﺼﻮﺑﮧ ﮨﮯ۔ وﮨﺎڑی ﻣﯿﮟ‬$8
college, saying that is what Tehmina Daultana ‫اﯾﮏ ﻣﯿﮉﯾﮑﻞ ﮐﺎﻟﺞ ﻣﯿﮟ ﯾﮧ ﮐﮩﮧ ﮐﺮ ﭘﮭﯿﻨﮏ دﯾﺎ ﮐﮧ ﺗﮩﻤﯿﻨﮧ دوﻟﺘﺎﻧﮧ ﻧﮯ‬
asked for her constituency. “Ok, we will give you a ‫ ﮨﻢ ﺗﻤﮩﯿﮟ ﻣﯿﮉﯾﮑﻞ ﮐﺎﻟﺞ دﯾﮟ‬،‫اﭘﻨﮯ ﺣﻠﻘﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﯾﮩﯽ ﮐﮩﺎ۔ "ﭨﮭﯿﮏ ﮨﮯ‬
medical college, but first get the votes and win!” "!‫ ﻟﯿﮑﻦ ﭘﮩﻠﮯ ووٹ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﮐﺮو اور ﺟﯿﺘﻮ‬،‫ﮔﮯ‬

Which brings us to the second plank in his strategy:


leveraging the power that he believes is about to ‫ اس‬:‫ﺟﻮ ﮨﻤﯿﮟ ان ﮐﯽ ﺣﮑﻤﺖ ﻋﻤﻠﯽ ﮐﮯ دوﺳﺮے ﺗﺨﺘﮯ ﭘﺮ ﻟﮯ آﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ‬
come into his hands to work the patronage ‫ﻃﺎﻗﺖ ﮐﺎ ﻓﺎﺋﺪہ اﭨﮭﺎﻧﺎ ﺟﺲ ﮐﮯ ﺑﺎرے ﻣﯿﮟ ان ﮐﺎ ﺧﯿﺎل ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ ﭘﻨﺠﺎب‬
machines of Punjab, and rebuild his relationships ‫ﮐﯽ ﺳﺮﭘﺮﺳﺘﯽ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ واﻟﯽ ﻣﺸﯿﻨﻮں ﮐﻮ ﮐﺎم ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ان ﮐﮯ ﮨﺎﺗﮫ‬

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with the dominant political families of this ‫ اور اس ﮔﮭﻨﺎؤﻧﯽ ﺻﻮﺑﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻏﺎﻟﺐ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ‬،‫ﻣﯿﮟ آﻧﮯ واﻻ ﮨﮯ‬
bellwether province. ‫ﺧﺎﻧﺪاﻧﻮں ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ اﭘﻨﮯ ﺗﻌﻠﻘﺎت ﮐﻮ دوﺑﺎرہ اﺳﺘﻮار ﮐﺮﻧﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬

In rural and small-town constituencies especially,


political families are important. Nawaz knows this ‫دﯾﮩﯽ اور ﭼﮭﻮﭨﮯ ﺷﮩﺮوں ﮐﮯ ﺣﻠﻘﻮں ﻣﯿﮟ ﺧﺎص ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ‬
better than anybody else, and he and his coterie ‫ اور‬،‫ﺧﺎﻧﺪان اﮨﻢ ﮨﻮﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ ﻧﻮاز ﯾﮧ ﺑﺎت ﮐﺴﯽ اور ﺳﮯ ﺑﮩﺘﺮ ﺟﺎﻧﺘﺎ ﮨﮯ‬
have the detailed knowledge of who is who, where ،‫وہ اور ان ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮭﯿﻮں ﮐﻮ اس ﺑﺎت ﮐﺎ ﺗﻔﺼﯿﻠﯽ ﻋﻠﻢ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ ﮐﻮن‬
and for how much. The message he is sending out ‫ﮐﮩﺎں اور ﮐﺘﻨﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﮨﮯ۔ ﺟﻮ ﭘﯿﻐﺎم وہ اب ﺑﮭﯿﺞ رﮨﺎ ﮨﮯ وہ ﮨﮯ اﭘﻨﮯ‬
now is to climb onto his bandwagon, because soon ‫ ﮐﯿﻮﻧﮑﮧ ﺟﻠﺪ ﮨﯽ ﯾﮧ ﺷﮩﺮ ﻣﯿﮟ واﺣﺪ ﺷﻮ ﮨﻮﮔﺎ۔‬،‫ﺑﯿﻨﮉ وﯾﮕﻦ ﭘﺮ ﭼﮍﮬﻨﺎ‬
it will be the only show in town.

Then there is his manifesto and the larger


macroeconomic promises made in it, like reviving ‫اس ﮐﮯ ﺑﻌﺪ ان ﮐﺎ ﻣﻨﺸﻮر ﮨﮯ اور اس ﻣﯿﮟ ﺑﮍے ﺑﮍے ﻣﻌﺎﺷﯽ وﻋﺪے‬
GDP growth to six per cent, resolving the circular ‫ ﺟﯿﺴﮯ ﺟﯽ ڈی ﭘﯽ ﮐﯽ ﺷﺮح ﻧﻤﻮ ﮐﻮ ﭼﮫ ﻓﯿﺼﺪ ﺗﮏ‬،‫ﮐﯿﮯ ﮔﺌﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ‬
debt, and so on. For now, though, his persona is ،‫ اﺑﮭﯽ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ‬،‫ وﻏﯿﺮہ۔ ﺗﺎﮨﻢ‬،‫ ﮔﺮدﺷﯽ ﻗﺮﺿﮯ ﮐﻮ ﺣﻞ ﮐﺮﻧﺎ‬،‫ﺑﺤﺎل ﮐﺮﻧﺎ‬
‫ اور ووﭨﺮز اور ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ‬،‫اس ﮐﯽ ﺷﺨﺼﯿﺖ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﮩﻢ ﮐﮯ وﻋﺪوں‬
invested in campaign promises, and connecting
‫ اور ان ﮐﯽ زﻧﺪﮔﯿﻮں ﺳﮯ دوﭼﺎر ﻣﻌﺎﺷﯽ‬،‫ﺧﺎﻧﺪاﻧﻮں ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ ﺟﮍﻧﮯ‬
with voters and political families, and promising
‫ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﮐﮯ ﺣﻞ ﮐﺎ وﻋﺪہ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﻣﯿﮟ ﻟﮕﯽ ﮨﻮﺋﯽ ﮨﮯ۔‬
them a resolution of the economic issues plaguing
their lives.

Next come the elections. After that the summoning


‫ ﺻﺪر‬،‫اﮔﻠﮯ اﻟﯿﮑﺸﻦ ﮨﻮں ﮔﮯ۔ اس ﮐﮯ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻧﺌﯽ ﭘﺎرﻟﯿﻤﻨﭧ ﮐﯽ ﻃﻠﺒﯽ‬
of the new parliament, the invitation by the
‫ﮐﯽ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺳﮯ ﺳﺐ ﺳﮯ زﯾﺎدہ ووٹ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ واﻟﯽ ﭘﺎرﭨﯽ ﮐﻮ آﮔﮯ‬
president to the party with the largest votes to step ،‫ ﻗﺎﺋﺪ اﯾﻮان ﮐﺎ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب‬،‫ﺑﮍﮬﻨﮯ اور اﭘﻨﯽ اﮐﺜﺮﯾﺖ ﺑﻨﺎﻧﮯ ﮐﯽ دﻋﻮت‬
forward and form their majority, the election of the ‫وﻓﺎﻗﯽ ﮐﺎﺑﯿﻨﮧ ﮐﯽ ﺗﻘﺮری۔‬
Leader of the House, the appointment of the federal
cabinet.

By then, close to nine months would have passed ‫ﺗﺐ ﺗﮏ ﻧﻮ ﻣﺎہ ﮐﮯ ﻗﺮﯾﺐ ﮔﺰر ﭼﮑﮯ ﮨﻮں ﮔﮯ ﮐﮧ ﻧﻮاز ﮐﯽ ﺟﻼوﻃﻨﯽ‬
since word first wafted past us of Nawaz’s ‫ﺳﮯ واﭘﺴﯽ ﮐﮯ ﺑﺎرے ﻣﯿﮟ ﭘﮩﻠﯽ ﺑﺎر ﮨﻢ ﭘﺮ ﺑﺎت ﮨﻮﺋﯽ۔ اور ﻋﻤﺮان‬
imminent return from exile. And Imran Khan’s woes ،‫ ﺳﺰاؤں‬،‫ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎت‬،‫ﺧﺎن ﮐﯽ ﭘﺮﯾﺸﺎﻧﯿﺎں ﮐﺌﯽ ﮔﻨﺎ ﺑﮍھ ﺟﺎﺋﯿﮟ ﮔﯽ‬
would have multiplied manifold, buried under an ‫ ﻟﯿﮑﺲ وﻏﯿﺮہ ﮐﮯ ﺑﺮﻓﺎﻧﯽ ﺗﻮدے‬،‫ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﺎرﯾﺎں‬،‫ اﻧﺤﺮاف‬،‫ ﻧﺎاﮨﻠﯽ‬،‫اﭘﯿﻠﻮں‬
avalanche of cases, convictions, appeals, ‫ﺗﻠﮯ دب ﺟﺎﺋﯿﮟ ﮔﯽ۔‬
disqualifications, defections, arrests, leaks, and so
on.

The tide is turning, in slow motion. Nawaz Sharif ‫ﺟﻮار ﮐﺎ رخ ﺳﺴﺖ رﻓﺘﺎر ﻣﯿﮟ ﮨﻮ رﮨﺎ ﮨﮯ۔ ﻧﻮاز ﺷﺮﯾﻒ واﭘﺲ آ ﭼﮑﮯ‬
has returned and will now cement his position in ‫ﮨﯿﮟ اور اب اﻗﺘﺪار ﻣﯿﮟ اﭘﻨﯽ ﭘﻮزﯾﺸﻦ ﻣﻀﺒﻮط ﮐﺮﯾﮟ ﮔﮯ۔ ﺑﮍا ﺳﻮال‬
power. The big question is whether he will find the ‫ﯾﮧ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ ﮐﯿﺎ وہ اﭘﻨﮯ وﻋﺪوں ﮐﺎ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺗﮏ ﭘﮩﻨﭽﺎﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ وﺳﺎﺋﻞ‬
resources to deliver even half of what he is ‫ﺗﻼش ﮐﺮ ﭘﺎﺋﮯ ﮔﺎ۔ ﯾﮧ دﯾﮑﮭﺘﮯ ﮨﻮﺋﮯ ﮐﮧ اس ﻧﮯ ﻧﻤﻮ ﮐﻮ ﺑﺤﺎل ﮐﺮﻧﮯ‬
promising. Given how heavily he has invested ‫ آﺋﯽ اﯾﻢ اﯾﻒ ﮐﮯ ﻧﺌﮯ‬،‫ﻣﯿﮟ ﺧﻮد ﮐﻮ ﮐﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﮭﺎری ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﮧ ﮐﺎری ﮐﯽ ﮨﮯ‬
himself in reviving growth, his commitment to a ‫ﭘﺮوﮔﺮام ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ اس ﮐﯽ واﺑﺴﺘﮕﯽ ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪہ ﮨﻮ ﺟﺎﺋﮯ ﮔﯽ۔ ﻧﻮاز‬
new IMF programme will become complicated. ‫ ﻟﯿﮑﻦ ﺗﺮﻗﯽ اور روزﮔﺎر ﻧﮩﯿﮟ آﺳﮑﺘﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬،‫ﺷﺎﯾﺪ واﭘﺲ آ ﮔﺌﮯ ﮨﻮں‬
Nawaz may have returned, but growth and
employment may not follow.

The writer is a business and economy journalist.


khurram.husain@gmail.com
X: @khurramhusain
Published in Dawn, February 1st, 2024

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Climate finance geopolitics ‫ﻣ ﻮ ﺳ ﻤ ﯿﺎ ﺗ ﯽ ﻓﻨﺎ ﻧ ﺲ ﺟ ﯿ ﻮ ﭘ ﻮﻟ ﯿ ﭩ ﮑ ﺲ‬
Ali Tauqeer Sheikh ‫ﻋﻠﯽ ﺗﻮﻗﯿﺮ ﺷﯿﺦ‬
The writer is an Islamabad-based climate change ‫ﻣﺼﻨﻒ اﺳﻼم آﺑﺎد ﻣﯿﮟ ﻣﻘﯿﻢ ﻣﻮﺳﻤﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻠﯽ اور ﭘﺎﺋﯿﺪار ﺗﺮﻗﯽ‬
and sustainable development expert. ‫ﮐﮯ ﻣﺎﮨﺮ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬

THE lines of distinction between climate finance ‫ﻣﻮﺳﻤﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﻓﻨﺎﻧﺲ اور رواﯾﺘﯽ ﺗﺮﻗﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﻓﻨﺎﻧﺴﻨﮓ ﮐﮯ درﻣﯿﺎن ﻓﺮق‬
and traditional development financing have been ‫ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻﻗﻮاﻣﯽ‬،‫ﮐﯽ ﻟﮑﯿﺮﯾﮟ دﮬﻨﺪﻻ دی ﮔﺌﯽ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ اس ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ‬
blurred. Concurrently, national and provincial roles ‫ﻣﻮﺳﻤﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎت ﺗﮏ رﺳﺎﺋﯽ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﻣﯿﮟ ﻗﻮﻣﯽ اور‬
and responsibilities in Pakistan to access ‫ﺻﻮﺑﺎﺋﯽ ﮐﺮدار اور ذﻣﮧ دارﯾﺎں اﮔﺮ ﮔﮍﺑﮍ ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﺗﻮ اﻟﺠﮫ ﮔﺌﯽ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬
international climate finance have become ‫ ﺑﺸﻤﻮل اﯾﻒ ڈی آﺋﯽ اور ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻﻗﻮاﻣﯽ‬،‫ﺗﻤﺎم ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻﻗﻮاﻣﯽ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎت‬
muddled, if not messy. All international finance, ‫ ﺗﯿﺰی ﺳﮯ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﯽ ﻣﺎﺣﻮﻟﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﭘﺎﻟﯿﺴﯿﻮں اور ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎﺋﯽ‬،‫ﺗﺠﺎرت‬
‫ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﮐﺎ اﯾﮏ آﻟﮧ ﺑﻨﺘﺎ ﺟﺎ رﮨﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬
including FDI and international trade, is fast
becoming an instrument of global climate policies
and geopolitics.

Pakistan is in the process of rethinking its


strategies to access climate financing. Several
‫ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﻣﻮﺳﻤﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﻓﻨﺎﻧﺴﻨﮓ ﺗﮏ رﺳﺎﺋﯽ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ اﭘﻨﯽ ﺣﮑﻤﺖ‬
federal ministries and provincial departments have
‫ﻋﻤﻠﯿﻮں ﭘﺮ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺛﺎﻧﯽ ﮐﺮ رﮨﺎ ﮨﮯ۔ ﻣﺘﻌﺪد وﻓﺎﻗﯽ وزارﺗﻮں اور ﺻﻮﺑﺎﺋﯽ‬
concurrently begun to assume institutional
‫( ﺗﮏ‬ICF) ‫ﻣﺤﮑﻤﻮں ﻧﮯ ﺑﯿﮏ وﻗﺖ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻﻗﻮاﻣﯽ ﻣﻮﺳﻤﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎت‬
responsibilities to access international climate
‫رﺳﺎﺋﯽ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ادارہ ﺟﺎﺗﯽ ذﻣﮧ دارﯾﺎں ﺳﻨﺒﮭﺎﻟﻨﺎ ﺷﺮوع ﮐﺮ دی ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬
finance (ICF). But it is not always clear where ‫ﻟﯿﮑﻦ ﯾﮧ ﮨﻤﯿﺸﮧ واﺿﺢ ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﮨﻮﺗﺎ ﮐﮧ دو ﻃﺮﻓﮧ ﻋﻄﯿﮧ دﮨﻨﺪﮔﺎن اﭘﻨﯽ‬
bilateral donors fit in their priorities or strategies, ‫ اور ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن‬،‫ﺗﺮﺟﯿﺤﺎت ﯾﺎ ﺣﮑﻤﺖ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﻮں ﻣﯿﮟ ﮐﮩﺎں ﻓﭧ ﮨﻮﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ‬
and how financial flows will be shaped by ‫ﮐﯽ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﯽ ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎﺋﯽ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﮐﮯ ذرﯾﻌﮯ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﺑﮩﺎؤ ﮐﺲ ﻃﺮح‬
Pakistan’s global geopolitics. ‫ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ ﭘﺎﺋﮯ ﮔﺎ۔‬

Economic growth, development, and


macroeconomic stability sans environmental and ،‫ﻣﺎﺣﻮﻟﯿﺎﺗﯽ اور آب و ﮨﻮا ﮐﮯ ﺧﺪﺷﺎت ﮐﮯ ﺑﻐﯿﺮ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺗﺮﻗﯽ‬
climate concerns are a notion of yesteryear. ‫ اور ﻣﯿﮑﺮو اﮐﻨﺎﻣﮏ اﺳﺘﺤﮑﺎم ﭘﺮاﻧﮯ ﺳﺎل ﮐﺎ ﺗﺼﻮر ﮨﮯ۔ ﻣﻌﺎﺷﯽ‬،‫ﺗﺮﻗﯽ‬
Ecological and economic priorities in the past were ‫ﺗﺮﻗﯽ ﮐﮯ ﺣﺼﻮل ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﻣﺎﺿﯽ ﻣﯿﮟ ﻣﺎﺣﻮﻟﯿﺎﺗﯽ اور اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی‬
decoupled to achieve economic development, but ‫ ﻟﯿﮑﻦ اب ﻧﮩﯿﮟ۔‬،‫ﺗﺮﺟﯿﺤﺎت ﮐﻮ ﺟﻮڑا ﮔﯿﺎ ﺗﮭﺎ‬
no longer.

The rationales have merged now. Emissions


reduction has an economic rationale. Pollution-free ‫دﻟﯿﻠﯿﮟ اب ﺿﻢ ﮨﻮ ﮔﺌﯽ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ اﺧﺮاج ﻣﯿﮟ ﮐﻤﯽ ﮐﺎ اﯾﮏ ﻣﻌﺎﺷﯽ ﺟﻮاز‬
societies are healthier. Likewise, trade relations ،‫ﮨﮯ۔ آﻟﻮدﮔﯽ ﺳﮯ ﭘﺎک ﻣﻌﺎﺷﺮے ﺻﺤﺖ ﻣﻨﺪ ﮨﻮﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ اﺳﯽ ﻃﺮح‬
with the EU, UK and US are increasingly becoming ‫ ﺑﺮﻃﺎﻧﯿﮧ اور اﻣﺮﯾﮑﮧ ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ ﺗﺠﺎرﺗﯽ ﺗﻌﻠﻘﺎت ﺗﯿﺰی‬،‫ﯾﻮرﭘﯽ ﯾﻮﻧﯿﻦ‬
subservient to their carbon-reduction interests and ‫ﺳﮯ ان ﮐﮯ ﮐﺎرﺑﻦ ﻣﯿﮟ ﮐﻤﯽ ﮐﮯ ﻣﻔﺎدات اور ﭼﯿﻦ ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ ﺑﮍﮬﺘﯽ‬
growing trade and technology wars with China. ‫ﮨﻮﺋﯽ ﺗﺠﺎرﺗﯽ اور ﭨﯿﮑﻨﺎﻟﻮﺟﯽ ﮐﯽ ﺟﻨﮕﻮں ﮐﮯ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﮨﻮﺗﮯ ﺟﺎ رﮨﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬
Healthy ecosystems are essential for sustainable ‫ﺻﺤﺖ ﻣﻨﺪ ﻣﺎﺣﻮﻟﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﻧﻈﺎم ﭘﺎﺋﯿﺪار اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺗﺮﻗﯽ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﺿﺮوری‬
economic growth. As they have become ‫ ﺗﻤﺎم ﻓﻨﺎﻧﺲ ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﮐﮯ‬،‫ﮨﯿﮟ۔ ﭼﻮﻧﮑﮧ وہ ﻻزم و ﻣﻠﺰوم ﮨﻮ ﮔﺌﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ‬
inseparable, all finance has by definition become ‫ﻟﺤﺎظ ﺳﮯ ﮐﻼﺋﻤﯿﭧ ﻓﻨﺎﻧﺲ ﺑﻦ ﮔﺌﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬
climate finance.

Fiscal space for development financing is at its


lowest ebb. No respite is on the horizon of ‫ﺗﺮﻗﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﻓﻨﺎﻧﺴﻨﮓ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﮔﻨﺠﺎﺋﺶ اﭘﻨﮯ ﮐﻢ ﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺳﻄﺢ ﭘﺮ ﮨﮯ۔‬
policymakers who are hard-pressed to deliver a ‫ﭘﺎﻟﯿﺴﯽ ﺳﺎزوں ﮐﮯ اﻓﻖ ﭘﺮ ﮐﻮﺋﯽ ﻣﮩﻠﺖ ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﮨﮯ ﺟﻮ ﺳﻤﺎﺟﯽ‬
socioeconomic turnaround. Recognising that many ‫اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻠﯽ ﮐﯽ ﻓﺮاﮨﻤﯽ ﮐﮯ ﻟﺌﮯ ﺳﺨﺖ دﺑﺎؤ ﮐﺎ ﺷﮑﺎر ﮨﯿﮟ۔ اس‬
specialised ICF windows can be accessed, some ‫ﺑﺎت ﮐﻮ ﺗﺴﻠﯿﻢ ﮐﺮﺗﮯ ﮨﻮﺋﮯ ﮐﮧ ﺑﮩﺖ ﺳﮯ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﯽ آﺋﯽ ﺳﯽ اﯾﻒ‬
‫ ﮐﭽﮫ وﻓﺎﻗﯽ وزارﺗﻮں‬،‫وﻧﮉوز ﺗﮏ رﺳﺎﺋﯽ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﮐﯽ ﺟﺎ ﺳﮑﺘﯽ ﮨﮯ‬
federal ministries and provincial departments have
‫اور ﺻﻮﺑﺎﺋﯽ ﻣﺤﮑﻤﻮں ﻧﮯ اس ﺧﻼ ﮐﻮ ﭘﺮ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﯽ دوڑ ﺷﺮوع ﮐﺮ دی‬
begun to race to fill the void.

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‫ﮨﮯ۔‬
All finance has by definition become climate
finance. ‫ﺗﻤﺎم ﻓﻨﺎﻧﺲ ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﮐﮯ ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﮐﻼﺋﻤﯿﭧ ﻓﻨﺎﻧﺲ ﺑﻦ ﮔﺌﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬

While the national climate finance strategy is in the


making, the ministries of climate, finance, and ،‫ﺟﺐ ﮐﮧ ﻗﻮﻣﯽ آب و ﮨﻮا ﮐﯽ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﺣﮑﻤﺖ ﻋﻤﻠﯽ ﺗﯿﺎر ﮨﻮ رﮨﯽ ﮨﮯ‬
planning are setting up specialised climate finance ‫ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎت اور ﻣﻨﺼﻮﺑﮧ ﺑﻨﺪی ﮐﯽ وزارﺗﯿﮟ ﻣﺨﺼﻮص‬،‫ﻣﻮﺳﻤﯿﺎﺗﯽ‬
units. They share the same challenges in finding ‫ﻣﻮﺳﻤﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﯾﻮﻧﭩﺲ ﻗﺎﺋﻢ ﮐﺮ رﮨﯽ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ وہ ﺗﺮﺑﯿﺖ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﮧ اﻓﺮاد‬
trained personnel, commissioning technical studies, ‫ اور ﮔﺮاﻧﭧ ﻣﺼﻨﻔﯿﻦ‬،‫ ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮑﯽ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﮧ ﺷﺮوع ﮐﺮﻧﮯ‬،‫ﮐﻮ ﺗﻼش ﮐﺮﻧﮯ‬
and looking for grant writers. The most stubborn ‫ﮐﯽ ﺗﻼش ﻣﯿﮟ اﯾﮏ ﺟﯿﺴﮯ ﭼﯿﻠﻨﺠﻮں ﮐﺎ اﺷﺘﺮاک ﮐﺮﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ ﺳﺐ‬
challenge is clarity of purpose for each undertaking ‫ﺳﮯ زﯾﺎدہ ﺳﺨﺖ ﭼﯿﻠﻨﺞ ﮨﺮ اﯾﮏ ﮐﺎم ﮐﮯ ﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﮐﯽ وﺿﺎﺣﺖ اور‬
and how best to avoid overlaps. ‫اوورﻟﯿﭙﺲ ﺳﮯ ﺑﭽﻨﮯ ﮐﺎ ﺑﮩﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻃﺮﯾﻘﮧ ﮨﮯ۔‬

Likewise, some provinces have begun to identify


specific policy options ranging from carbon trading ‫ ﮐﭽﮫ ﺻﻮﺑﻮں ﻧﮯ ﮐﺎرﺑﻦ ﭨﺮﯾﮉﻧﮓ ﺳﮯ ﻟﮯ ﮐﺮ ﮐﺎرﺑﻦ ﭨﯿﮑﺲ‬،‫اﺳﯽ ﻃﺮح‬
‫اور ﻟﯿﻮﯾﺰ ﺗﮏ ﻣﺨﺼﻮص ﭘﺎﻟﯿﺴﯽ آﭘﺸﻨﺰ ﮐﯽ ﻧﺸﺎﻧﺪﮨﯽ ﮐﺮﻧﺎ ﺷﺮوع ﮐﺮ‬
to carbon taxes and levies. Punjab, for example, has
‫ ﭘﻨﺠﺎب ﻧﮯ اﭘﻨﯽ ﺳﺒﺰ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﺣﮑﻤﺖ‬،‫دی ﮨﮯ۔ ﻣﺜﺎل ﮐﮯ ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ‬
progressed in finalising its green financial strategy
‫ﻋﻤﻠﯽ اور اس ﮐﮯ ﻧﻔﺎذ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ اﯾﮏ اﯾﮑﺸﻦ ﭘﻼن ﮐﻮ ﺣﺘﻤﯽ ﺷﮑﻞ‬
and an action plan for its implementation. In KP, a
‫ اﯾﮏ ﻣﻮﺳﻤﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﻓﻨﺎﻧﺴﻨﮓ‬،‫دﯾﻨﮯ ﻣﯿﮟ ﭘﯿﺶ رﻓﺖ ﮐﯽ ﮨﮯ۔ ﮐﮯ ﭘﯽ ﻣﯿﮟ‬
climate financing framework and climate
‫ﻓﺮﯾﻢ ورک اور ﻣﻮﺳﻤﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﮧ ﮐﺎری اور ﻧﻔﺎذ ﮐﮯ ﻣﻨﺼﻮﺑﮯ ﺑﻨﺎﺋﮯ‬
investment and implementation plans have been ‫ﮔﺌﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ دوﻧﻮں ﺻﻮﺑﮯ ﮐﺎرﺑﻦ ﭨﺮﯾﮉﻧﮓ ﻣﺎرﮐﯿﭧ ﻣﯿﮟ داﺧﻞ ﮨﻮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ‬
developed. Both provinces are probing the ‫اﻣﮑﺎن ﮐﯽ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﺎت ﮐﺮ رﮨﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬
possibility of entering the carbon trading market.

While endeavours at the federal level are mostly


undertaken with support from multilateral ‫اﮔﺮﭼﮧ وﻓﺎﻗﯽ ﺳﻄﺢ ﭘﺮ ﮐﻮﺷﺸﯿﮟ زﯾﺎدہ ﺗﺮ ﮐﺜﯿﺮاﻟﻄﺮﻓﮧ ﺗﺮﻗﯿﺎﺗﯽ‬
development banks (MDB), in the provinces, it is ‫ ﯾﮧ‬،‫ ﺻﻮﺑﻮں ﻣﯿﮟ‬،‫( ﮐﮯ ﺗﻌﺎون ﺳﮯ ﮐﯽ ﺟﺎﺗﯽ ﮨﯿﮟ‬MDB) ‫ﺑﯿﻨﮑﻮں‬
primarily bilateral financing that is helping them ‫ﺑﻨﯿﺎدی ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ دو ﻃﺮﻓﮧ ﻣﺎﻟﯽ اﻋﺎﻧﺖ ﮨﮯ ﺟﻮ اﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﻧﺌﮯ ﺧﻄﻮں ﭘﺮ‬
tread new terrains. So far, none of the federal ‫ وﻓﺎﻗﯽ اﯾﺠﻨﺴﯿﻮں ﻣﯿﮟ‬،‫ﭼﻠﻨﮯ ﻣﯿﮟ ﻣﺪد ﻓﺮاﮨﻢ ﮐﺮ رﮨﯽ ﮨﮯ۔ اﺑﮭﯽ ﺗﮏ‬
agencies has leveraged itself to convene them for ‫ﺳﮯ ﮐﺴﯽ ﻧﮯ ﺑﮭﯽ ﺑﮩﺘﺮ ﮨﻢ آﮨﻨﮕﯽ اور ﮨﻢ آﮨﻨﮕﯽ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ان ﮐﻮ ﺑﻼﻧﮯ‬
better coordination and synergy. ‫ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ اﭘﻨﺎ ﻓﺎﺋﺪہ ﻧﮩﯿﮟ اﭨﮭﺎﯾﺎ۔‬

Overall, Pakistan’s share of international finance is


minuscule. The economic loss and damage of ‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﯽ ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻﻗﻮاﻣﯽ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎت ﻣﯿﮟ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﺎ ﺣﺼﮧ ﺑﮩﺖ‬
$30.1 billion inflicted by the 2022 floods was more ‫ ﺑﻠﯿﻦ ڈاﻟﺮ ﮐﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﺷﯽ‬30.1 ‫ ﮐﮯ ﺳﯿﻼب ﺳﮯ ﮨﻮﻧﮯ واﻻ‬2022 ‫ﮐﻢ ﮨﮯ۔‬
than the total disbursement by all UNFCCC (United ‫ﻧﻘﺼﺎن اور ﻧﻘﺼﺎن ﯾﻮ اﯾﻦ اﯾﻒ ﺳﯽ ﺳﯽ ﺳﯽ )اﻗﻮام ﻣﺘﺤﺪہ ﮐﮯ‬
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) ‫ﻓﺮﯾﻢ ورک ﮐﻨﻮﻧﺸﻦ آن ﮐﻼﺋﻤﯿﭧ ﭼﯿﻨﺞ( ﮐﮯ ﻓﻨﮉز ﺳﮯ ان ﮐﮯ ﻗﯿﺎم ﮐﮯ‬
funds since their inception: the Global Environment ‫ ﮔﻠﻮﺑﻞ اﻧﻮاﺋﺮﻣﻨﭧ‬:‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺳﮯ اب ﺗﮏ دﯾﮯ ﮔﺌﮯ ﺗﻤﺎم ﻓﻨﮉز ﺳﮯ زﯾﺎدہ ﺗﮭﺎ‬
Facility (1991), Adaptation Fund (2001), and the ‫ اور ﮔﺮﯾﻦ ﮐﻼﺋﻤﯿﭧ‬،(2001) ‫ اﯾﮉاﭘﭩﯿﺸﻦ ﻓﻨﮉ‬،(1991) ‫ﻓﯿﺴﯿﻠﭩﯽ‬
Green Climate Fund (2014). ‫(۔‬2014) ‫ﻓﻨﮉ‬

According to some estimates, they have collectively


disbursed about $22bn globally. Pakistan has ‫ اﻧﮩﻮں ﻧﮯ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﯽ ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﯽ ﺳﻄﺢ‬،‫ﮐﭽﮫ اﻧﺪازوں ﮐﮯ ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻖ‬
accessed less than $1bn from all these three funds 30 ‫ ﺑﻠﯿﻦ ڈاﻟﺮ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ ﮐﯿﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﻧﮯ ﮔﺰﺷﺘﮧ‬22 ‫ﭘﺮ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒًﺎ‬
in the last 30 years. Clearly, the gap between ‫ ﺑﻠﯿﻦ ڈاﻟﺮ ﺳﮯ ﮐﻢ ﺗﮏ رﺳﺎﺋﯽ‬1 ‫ﺳﺎﻟﻮں ﻣﯿﮟ ان ﺗﯿﻨﻮں ﻓﻨﮉز ﺳﮯ‬
Pakis tan’s investment needs for resilience and ‫ ﻟﭽﮏ اور ﮐﻢ ﮐﺎرﺑﻦ ﮐﯽ ﺗﺮﻗﯽ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ‬،‫ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﮐﯽ ﮨﮯ۔ واﺿﺢ ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ‬
low carbon development cannot be met by the ‫ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﮧ ﮐﺎری ﮐﯽ ﺿﺮورﯾﺎت ﮐﮯ درﻣﯿﺎن ﻓﺮق ﮐﻮ‬
present climate finance ecosystem. ‫ﻣﻮﺟﻮدہ ﻣﻮﺳﻤﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﻣﺎﺣﻮﻟﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﻧﻈﺎم ﺳﮯ ﭘﻮرا ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﮐﯿﺎ ﺟﺎ‬
‫ﺳﮑﺘﺎ۔‬
As against this, the MDBs are the largest lenders of
Pakistan. Their portfolio will grow steeply in the ‫ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﮯ ﺳﺐ ﺳﮯ ﺑﮍے ﻗﺮض دﮨﻨﺪہ‬MDBs ،‫اس ﮐﮯ ﺑﺮﻋﮑﺲ‬
‫ﮨﯿﮟ۔ ان ﮐﺎ ﭘﻮرٹ ﻓﻮﻟﯿﻮ اﮔﻠﮯ ﺗﯿﻦ ﺳﮯ ﭼﺎر ﺳﺎﻟﻮں ﻣﯿﮟ ﺑﮩﺖ ﺗﯿﺰی‬
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next three to four years as all eight MDBs have ‫ ﻧﮯ ﺣﺎل ﮨﯽ ﻣﯿﮟ ﭘﯿﺮس‬MDBs ‫ﺳﮯ ﺑﮍﮬﮯ ﮔﺎ ﮐﯿﻮﻧﮑﮧ ﺗﻤﺎم آﭨﮫ‬
recently announced to ‘align’ their portfolios with ‫ﻣﻌﺎﮨﺪے ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ اﭘﻨﮯ ﭘﻮرٹ ﻓﻮﻟﯿﻮ ﮐﻮ 'ﺳﯿﺪھ' ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﺎ اﻋﻼن ﮐﯿﺎ‬
the Paris Agreement. The IFC and IMF have also ‫ﮨﮯ۔ آﺋﯽ اﯾﻒ ﺳﯽ اور آﺋﯽ اﯾﻢ اﯾﻒ ﻧﮯ ﺑﮭﯽ ﺷﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻮﺳﻤﯽ واﻗﻌﺎت‬
begun to champion private sectors’ transition and ‫ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ ﻧﺠﯽ ﺷﻌﺒﻮں ﮐﯽ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻠﯽ اور ﻣﯿﮑﺮو اﮐﻨﺎﻣﮏ اﺳﺘﺤﮑﺎم ﮐﻮ‬
macroeconomic stability with extreme weather ‫ﻓﺮوغ دﯾﻨﺎ ﺷﺮوع ﮐﺮ دﯾﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬
events.

The IMF has developed its own Climate Policy


Assessment Tool, known as CPAT, for the rapid ‫ ﺟﺴﮯ‬،‫ ﻧﮯ اﭘﻨﺎ ﻣﻮﺳﻤﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﭘﺎﻟﯿﺴﯽ اﺳﺴﻤﻨﭧ ﭨﻮل ﺗﯿﺎر ﮐﯿﺎ ﮨﮯ‬IMF
quantification of impacts of climate-mitigation ،‫ اﺧﺮاج‬،‫ ﻗﯿﻤﺘﻮں‬،‫ ﺗﻮاﻧﺎﺋﯽ ﮐﯽ ﻃﻠﺐ‬،‫ ﮐﮯ ﻧﺎم ﺳﮯ ﺟﺎﻧﺎ ﺟﺎﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ‬CPAT
policies, including on energy demand, prices, ‫ ﻣﻘﺎﻣﯽ ﻓﻀﺎﺋﯽ‬،‫ ﮔﮭﺮﯾﻠﻮ اور ﺻﻨﻌﺘﻮں‬،‫ ﺟﯽ ڈی ﭘﯽ‬،‫ ﺑﮩﺒﻮد‬،‫ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت‬
emissions, revenues, welfare, GDP, households and ‫ ﺳﻤﯿﺖ ﻣﻮﺳﻤﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﺗﺨﻔﯿﻒ ﮐﯽ ﭘﺎﻟﯿﺴﯿﻮں ﮐﮯ اﺛﺮات ﮐﯽ‬،‫آﻟﻮدﮔﯽ‬
industries, local air pollution, and many more. The ‫ ﻓﻠﯿﮓ ﺷﭗ‬.‫ﺗﯿﺰی ﺳﮯ ﻣﻘﺪار درﺳﺖ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ۔ اور ﺑﮩﺖ ﺳﮯ‬
flagship Public Investment Management ‫ ﺟﻮ ﮐﮧ ﻃﻮﯾﻞ ﻋﺮﺻﮯ ﺳﮯ‬،‫ﭘﺒﻠﮏ اﻧﻮﯾﺴﭩﻤﻨﭧ ﻣﯿﻨﺠﻤﻨﭧ اﺳﯿﺴﻤﻨﭧ‬
Assessment, which has long been used to assess ‫اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺗﺮﻗﯽ ﮐﯽ ﺗﻤﺎم ﺳﻄﺤﻮں ﭘﺮ ﻣﻤﺎﻟﮏ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ اﻧﻔﺮاﺳﭩﺮﮐﭽﺮ‬
infrastructure governance practices for countries at ،‫ﮔﻮرﻧﻨﺲ ﮐﮯ ﻃﺮﯾﻘﻮں ﮐﺎ ﺟﺎﺋﺰہ ﻟﯿﻨﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ اﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﮨﻮﺗﯽ رﮨﯽ ﮨﮯ‬
all levels of economic development, has become a ‫( ﺑﻦ ﮔﯿﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬PIMA-PIMA (C ‫اﯾﮏ ﮐﻼﺋﻤﯿﭧ‬
Climate PIMA (C-PIMA).

It involves an assessment of institutions of public


investment management that are key to ‘climate- ‫اس ﻣﯿﮟ ﻋﻮاﻣﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﮧ ﮐﺎری ﮐﮯ اﻧﺘﻈﺎم ﮐﮯ اداروں ﮐﺎ ﺟﺎﺋﺰہ‬
aware’ infrastructures. The release of the next IMF ‫ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﮨﮯ ﺟﻮ 'آب و ﮨﻮا ﺳﮯ آﮔﺎہ' اﻧﻔﺮاﺳﭩﺮﮐﭽﺮ ﮐﯽ ﮐﻠﯿﺪ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ ﻣﺎرچ‬
tranche to Pakistan in March 2024 will hinge on our ‫ ﮐﯽ‬IMF ‫ ﮐﯽ اﮔﻠﯽ ﻗﺴﻂ ﮐﺎ اﺟﺮاء‬IMF ‫ ﻣﯿﮟ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﻮ‬2024
compliance with the commitments made in C-PIMA, ‫ ﻣﯿﮟ ﮐﯿﮯ ﮔﺌﮯ وﻋﺪوں ﮐﯽ‬PIMA-C ‫وﯾﺐ ﺳﺎﺋﭧ ﭘﺮ ﭘﻮﺳﭧ ﮐﺮدہ‬
posted on IMF website. ‫ﮨﻤﺎری ﺗﻌﻤﯿﻞ ﭘﺮ ﻣﻨﺤﺼﺮ ﮨﮯ۔‬

Ironically, the IMF, like MDBs, has had limited


success in increasing the ownership for reforms ‫ ﮐﻮ اﺻﺮار ﮐﮯ‬IMF ‫ ﮐﯽ ﻃﺮح‬MDBs ‫ﺳﺘﻢ ﻇﺮﯾﻔﯽ ﯾﮧ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ‬
‫ﺑﺎوﺟﻮد اﺻﻼﺣﺎت ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﻣﻠﮑﯿﺖ ﺑﮍﮬﺎﻧﮯ ﻣﯿﮟ ﻣﺤﺪود ﮐﺎﻣﯿﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﻠﯽ‬
despite insistence. If the election manifestos of the
‫ ﭘﯽ ﭘﯽ ﭘﯽ اور ﭘﯽ ﭨﯽ آﺋﯽ ﮐﮯ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﯽ‬،(‫ﮨﮯ۔ اﮔﺮ ﻣﺴﻠﻢ ﻟﯿﮓ )ن‬
PML-N, PPP and PTI are any indicator, they have not
‫ ﺗﻮ اﻧﮩﻮں ﻧﮯ آﺋﯽ اﯾﻢ اﯾﻒ ﮐﺎ ذﮐﺮ ﺗﮏ ﻧﮩﯿﮟ‬،‫ﻣﻨﺸﻮر ﮐﻮﺋﯽ اﺷﺎرے ﮨﯿﮟ‬
even mentioned IMF, let alone acknowledged and
‫ اﺳﭩﯿﻨﮉ ﺑﺎﺋﯽ ارﯾﻨﺠﻤﻨﭧ ﮐﮯ ﺗﺤﺖ ﮐﯿﮯ ﮔﺌﮯ ﻗﻮﻣﯽ وﻋﺪوں ﮐﻮ‬،‫ﮐﯿﺎ‬
endorsed national commitments made under the
‫ﺗﺴﻠﯿﻢ اور ﺗﻮﺛﯿﻖ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﻮ ﭼﮭﻮڑ دﯾﮟ۔‬
Stand-By Arrangement.

The World Bank and IMF align their financing flows ‫ورﻟﮉ ﺑﯿﻨﮏ اور آﺋﯽ اﯾﻢ اﯾﻒ ﭘﯿﺮس ﻣﻌﺎﮨﺪے ﮐﮯ ﻣﻘﺎﺻﺪ ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ‬
with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. In fact, ‫ ﺗﻤﺎم‬،‫اﭘﻨﮯ ﻓﻨﺎﻧﺴﻨﮓ ﮐﮯ ﺑﮩﺎؤ ﮐﻮ ﺳﯿﺪھ ﻣﯿﮟ رﮐﮭﺘﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ درﺣﻘﯿﻘﺖ‬
all eight MDBs have now committed to globally ‫ ﻧﮯ اب ﻋﺎﻟﻤﯽ ﺳﻄﺢ ﭘﺮ اﭘﻨﮯ اﻧﺪرون ﻣﻠﮏ ﭘﻮرٹ ﻓﻮﻟﯿﻮ‬MDBs ‫آﭨﮫ‬
coordinating their in-country portfolios. ‫ﮐﻮ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﺎ ﻋﮩﺪ ﮐﯿﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬

In Pakistan, the ADB and World Bank are now


committed to proactively communicating and ‫ اور ورﻟﮉ ﺑﯿﻨﮏ اب اﭘﻨﮯ ﭘﻮرٹ ﻓﻮﻟﯿﻮز ﮐﻮ ﻓﻌﺎل‬ADB ،‫ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﻣﯿﮟ‬
coordinating their portfolios. This will be useful for ‫ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ راﺑﻄﮯ اور ﮨﻢ آﮨﻨﮕﯽ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﭘﺮﻋﺰم ﮨﯿﮟ۔ ﯾﮧ ﺑﮩﺘﺮ ﮨﻢ آﮨﻨﮕﯽ‬
better synergy. It, however, also poses the ‫ ﯾﮧ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻﻗﻮاﻣﯽ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎت ﮐﮯ ﮐﺎرﭨﻼﺋﺰﯾﺸﻦ‬،‫ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﻣﻔﯿﺪ ﮨﻮ ﮔﺎ۔ ﺗﺎﮨﻢ‬
increased risk of cartelisation of international ‫ اﮔﺮ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺋﯽ‬،‫ﮐﮯ ﺑﮍﮬﺘﮯ ﮨﻮﺋﮯ ﺧﻄﺮے ﮐﺎ ﺑﮭﯽ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺑﻨﺘﺎ ﮨﮯ‬
finance, making countries like Pakistan overly ‫ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎﺋﯽ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﮐﯽ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ ﺳﺮ ﮔﺮﻣﯿﺎں ﻣﻀﺒﻮط ﮨﻮ ﺟﺎﺗﯽ ﮨﯿﮟ‬
vulnerable if the political headwinds of regional ‫ﺗﻮ ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﺟﯿﺴﮯ ﻣﻤﺎﻟﮏ ﮐﻮ ﺣﺪ ﺳﮯ زﯾﺎدہ ﮐﻤﺰور ﺑﻨﺎ دﯾﺘﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬
geopolitics become stronger.

Finally, while MDB projects are large, bilateral ‫ دو ﻃﺮﻓﮧ ﻋﻄﯿﮧ‬،‫ ﻣﻨﺼﻮﺑﮯ ﺑﮍے ﮨﯿﮟ‬MDB ‫ ﺟﺐ ﮐﮧ‬،‫آﺧﺮ ﻣﯿﮟ‬
donors have much smaller financial buckets. They ‫دﮨﻨﺪﮔﺎن ﮐﮯ ﭘﺎس ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﺑﺎﻟﭩﯿﺎں ﺑﮩﺖ ﭼﮭﻮﭨﯽ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ وہ اﮐﺜﺮ ﺑﮍے‬

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often aspire to add to technical know-how, rather ‫ﺑﻨﯿﺎدی ڈﮬﺎﻧﭽﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻣﻨﺼﻮﺑﻮں ﮐﮯ ﺑﺠﺎﺋﮯ ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮑﯽ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﯿﮟ‬
than large infrastructural projects. Working with ‫اﺿﺎﻓﮧ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﯽ ﺧﻮاﮨﺶ رﮐﮭﺘﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔ ان ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ ﻧﺴﺒﺘًﺎ ﭼﮭﻮﭨﮯ‬
them on a cascade of relatively smaller projects is ‫ﻣﻨﺼﻮﺑﻮں ﭘﺮ ﮐﺎم ﮐﺮﻧﺎ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺷﻌﺒﻮں اور ﺻﻮﺑﻮں ﻣﯿﮟ ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮑﯽ‬
pivotal to enhancing technical capacities in various ‫ﺻﻼﺣﯿﺘﻮں ﮐﻮ ﺑﮍﮬﺎﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ اﮨﻢ ﮨﮯ۔ دو ﻃﺮﻓﮧ ﻋﻄﯿﮧ دﮨﻨﺪﮔﺎن ﮐﻮ‬
sectors and in the provinces. It is in our interest to ‫اﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﮐﺮﻧﺎ ﮨﻤﺎرے ﻣﻔﺎد ﻣﯿﮟ ﮨﮯ ﺧﺎص ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ ﮐﯿﻮﻧﮑﮧ دو ﻃﺮﻓﮧ‬
tap bilateral donors particularly because bilateral ‫ دو ﻃﺮﻓﮧ ﺗﺠﺎرت اور دو‬،‫ﻣﻨﺼﻮﺑﻮں ﮐﺎ ﻣﻘﺼﺪ اﮐﺜﺮ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺗﺮﻗﯽ‬
projects are often aimed at promoting a ‫ﻃﺮﻓﮧ ﻗﺮض اور ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﮧ ﮐﺎری ﮐﮯ اﻣﺘﺰاج ﮐﻮ ﻓﺮوغ دﯾﻨﺎ ﮨﻮﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬
combination of economic growth, bilateral trade,
and bilateral lending and investments.

This technical engagement can also serve as an ‫ﯾﮧ ﺗﮑﻨﯿﮑﯽ ﻣﺼﺮوﻓﯿﺖ ﺗﯿﻦ درﺟﻦ ﺳﮯ زﯾﺎدہ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﯽ ﻣﻘﺼﺪ واﻟﯽ‬
enabler to access over three dozen special purpose ‫ ﮔﺎڑﯾﻮں ﺗﮏ رﺳﺎﺋﯽ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ اﯾﮏ اﮨﻞ ﮐﺎر ﮐﮯ ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ ﺑﮭﯽ ﮐﺎم ﮐﺮ‬ICF
ICF vehicles that the UK, Germany, France, EU and ‫ اور ﮐﺌﯽ دﯾﮕﺮ ﻧﮯ‬EU ،‫ ﻓﺮاﻧﺲ‬،‫ ﺟﺮﻣﻨﯽ‬،‫ﺳﮑﺘﯽ ﮨﮯ ﺟﻮ ﮐﮧ ﺑﺮﻃﺎﻧﯿﮧ‬
several others have created, nationally or by pooling ‫ﻗﻮﻣﯽ ﺳﻄﺢ ﭘﺮ ﯾﺎ ﭘﯿﺮس ﻣﻌﺎﮨﺪے ﮐﮯ ﻣﺨﺼﻮص اﮨﺪاف ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ‬
resources for specific Paris Agreement goals. ‫وﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺟﻤﻊ ﮐﺮ ﮐﮯ ﺑﻨﺎﺋﯽ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬

More than anything else, the strategic objective of


‫ ﻓﺮﯾﻘﯿﻦ ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ دوﻃﺮﻓﮧ ﻃﻮر ﭘﺮ‬،‫ﮐﺴﯽ ﺑﮭﯽ ﭼﯿﺰ ﺳﮯ ﺑﮍھ ﮐﺮ‬
engaging bilaterally with parties is to augment trade
‫ﻣﺸﻐﻮل ﮨﻮﻧﮯ ﮐﺎ ﺗﺰوﯾﺮاﺗﯽ ﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﺗﺠﺎرﺗﯽ ﺗﻌﻠﻘﺎت ﮐﻮ ﺑﮍﮬﺎﻧﺎ اور‬
relations and to build their stakes in regional
‫ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺋﯽ اﺳﺘﺤﮑﺎم اور ﭘﺎﮐﺴﺘﺎن ﮐﯽ آب و ﮨﻮا ﺳﮯ ﻣﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺳﻤﺎرٹ‬
stability and Pakistan’s climate-smart development.
‫ ﯾﮧ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﯽ‬،‫ڈوﯾﻠﭙﻤﻨﭧ ﻣﯿﮟ اﭘﻨﺎ ﺣﺼﮧ ڈاﻟﻨﺎ ﮨﮯ۔ ﺳﺐ ﮐﮯ ﺑﻌﺪ‬
After all, it is global polarisation that is leading the
‫ ﮐﮯ ﺑﺠﺎﺋﮯ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻﻗﻮاﻣﯽ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎت ﮐﮯ‬UNFCCC ‫ﭘﻮﻟﺮاﺋﺰﯾﺸﻦ ﮨﮯ ﺟﻮ‬
flow of international finance, rather than the
‫ﺑﮩﺎؤ ﮐﯽ ﻗﯿﺎدت ﮐﺮ رﮨﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬
UNFCCC.

The writer is an Islamabad-based climate change


and sustainable development expert.
Published in Dawn, February 1st, 2024

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