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Sarima Malaia
Sarima Malaia
Sarima Malaia
Abstract- The usefulness of forecasting method in predicting the Mexican Secretariat of Health between 1 988 and 20 1 1 .
number of disease incidence is important. It motivates ARIMA model was constructed to estimate onchocerciasis
development of a system that can predict the future number of
cases for two years ahead. The results reported a decreasing
disease occurrences. Fluctuation analysis of forecasting result
can be used to support the making of policy from the stake
trend of the disease over time.
holder. This paper analyses and presents the use of Seasonal The number of human incidence of Schistosoma
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method haematobium at Niono, Mali was proj ected online by using
for developing a forecasting model that able to support and exponential smoothing method [4] . The method was used as
provide prediction number of diasease incidence in human. The a core of a proposed state-space framework. Data was
dataset for model development was collected from time series
collected from 1 7 community health center in the range of
data of Malaria occurrences in United States obtained from a
study published by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
1 996 to 2004. The final framework could assist to manage
(CDC). It resulted SARIMA (0, 1,1)(1,1,1)1 2 as the selected and to assess the transmission and intervention impact of S.
model. The model achieved 2 1,6% for Mean Absolute haematobium.
Percentage Error (MAPE). It indicated the capability of final Three different methods were used to forecast the SARS
model to closely represent and made prediction based on the epidemic in China [5] . The existing time series was
Malaria historical dataset. computed by AR( I), ARIMA(O, I ,0), and ARMA( 1 , I). The
Keywords - disease forecasting; time series; SARIMA.
result of this study was used to monitor the dynamic of
SARS in China based on the daily data. Hence, the result
could be used to support the disease reports.
I. INTRODUCTION A Bayesian dynamic model also could be used to monitor
influenza surveillance as one factor of SARS epidemic [6] .
Disease forecasting is one of an important area of medical
This model was developed to link pediatric and adult
area. It also supports policies making by stakeholders such as
syndromic data to the traditional measures of influenza
health services and healthcare needs [ 1 ] . There is no single
morbidity and mortality. The findings showed the
approach to disease forecasting, and so various methods have
importance of modeling influenza surveillance data, and
often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health
recommend dynamic Bayesian Network.
conditions. Meanwhile, there are no specific methods to
The monthly data of Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL)
match the choices of disease forecasting approaches that are
incidence in Costa Rica from 1 9 9 1 to 200 1 was computed by
often applied. The selection of an appropriate method is
using seasonal autoregressive models. This work was
important to achieve a better prediction.
studying the relationship between the interannual cycles of
Time series analysis regarding forecasting model is widely
the diseases with the climate variables using frequency and
used in various fields such as energy demand prediction,
time-frequency techniques of time series analysis [7] . This
economic field, traffic prediction, and in the health support.
model supported the dynamic link between the disease and
Indeed, predicting the number of disease incidence need to
climate.
be focused because the obtained result is needed for further
The application of additive decomposition method was
decisions.
used to predict Salmonellosis incidence in US [8] . This
Many researchers have developed different forecasting
method was selected because of the relatively constant trend
methods to predict human. The number of dengue cases in a
of the historical data. Fourteen years historical data from
population was proj ected using SARIMA model [2] . The
1 993 to 2006 was collected to compute the forecast values
model was developed based on the reported monthly
until 12 months-ahead.
incidence of dengue from 1 998 to 2008, and then it was
This paper analyses the empirical results for evaluating
validated using data in 2009. The selected model showed that
and predicting the number of zoonosis incidence by using
the monthly cases could be predicted using one, two and
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). This
twelve months prior. This model indicated that the number
model is selected because of the capability to correct the
of prediction was close to the historical data.
local trend in data, where the pattern in the previous period
Monthly number of onchocerciasis data in Mexico was
can be used to forecast the future. Thus, this model also
analysed using software R [3 ] . Data was collected from
supports the modeling of one perspective as a function of
i 150
(3)
SAC SPAC
1.0 1.0
O.B O.B
0.6 0
0.6
.2
�
0.4 0.4
�
c ..
�
.2
0.2
;8
0.0 tL'-'-nTT,-ll-Lll-'--rTTlrr-LLL.......TT"TTr...Ll.LL 0.0
t L TTTTTT-.LJUj :;
-0.2 .. - 0.2
:!!
i
.. -0.4 -0.4
-0.6 - 0.6
-O.B - 0.8
-1.0 -1.0
w � w � H � � � W 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
lag lag
w �
Figure 2. (a) SAC Correlogram of the Original Data; (b) SPAC Correlogram of the Original Data.
" .
' !t •
w �
Figure 3 . (a) SAC Correlogram of Regular Diflerencing; (b) SPAC Correlogram of Regular Diflerencing.
0.; - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
••
.. 1
••
10 l' . ,. • 2� . • • j(J l!
-0,3
(a) (b)
Figure 4. (a) SAC Correlogram of Seasonal Differencing; (b) SPAC Correlogram of Seasonal Differencing.
w 00
Figure 5. (a) SAC Correlogram of Regular aud Seasonal Diflerencing; (b) SPAC Correlogram of Regular aud Seasonal Differencing.
�
dies down. Then, the tentatively moving average
nonseasonal q model:
.
I
Zt = o + at - (}l at- 1 (4) i. ! i
Seasonal level: SAC dies down and SPAC dies down. �, � !!
It results the combination model of autoregressive
moving average seasonal orde (P,Q):
Zt = 0 + Q)1,12 Zt-12 + at - (}1,12 at-12 (5)
Since the final model consists of nonseasonal and
seasonal level, then equation (4) and (5) are combined I U � n _ u u � n � W ill W m _ m � ill ill m
Zt = 0 + Q)1,12 Zt- 1 2 + at - (}l at- 1 - (}1,12 at-12 (6) Figure 6. Time Series Plot of The Original Data and Forecast Values.
Rewrite (6) yields (7)
0 + at + Q)1,12 Zt- 1 2 - (}l at- 1 - (}1,12 at-12 (7)
TABLE I. THE FORECASTING RESULT.
Zt=
Prediction
Month
Values (}l at _ 1 and (}1,12 at-12 from (7) are unified to form 2010 201 1 2012
Jauuary 70.482 62. 9 1 3 56.920
the multiplicative term (8):
February 7 1 .205 65.744 59. 703
( - (}l ) ( - (}1,12 ) at-13 = (}l (}1,12 at-13 (8) March 64. 899 59.390 53.301
The form - (}l and - (}1,12 are multiplied and added the April 7 l .00l 65.443 59.306
negative numbers (- I and - 1 2) after the t in the random shock May 9 1 .320 85.714 79. 529
subscripts a. Then, the overall tentatively model become (9): June 1 04.908 99.254 93 . 020