1.

Introduction
Globally, earthquake is considered a natural disaster. It occurs for a short time, but leaves
long lasting footprints on nature and human. Through examining the real world evidences, it has
been analyzed that the earthquake have occurred in past years, but due to deficiency of
instruments, there origin and magnitude have not been recorded. Plates tectonic are wide, thick
plate under the earth surface and causes extreme geological activity at boundaries. They have
three kinds of movements such as convergent (plates moving towards each other), divergent
(plates moving apart from each other and transform (plates slides each other). This theory is
based on previous two theories, Continental Drift and Sea Floor Spreading. Continental Drift
theory states that once all continents were together forming supercontinent, then due to tectonic
movements, they drifted away from each other. Sea Floor Spreading theory came into being by
examining the mid oceanic ridges. It was found that new oceanic crust was developed and thrusts
away the continents (Pal et al., 2023). An earthquake can change in hydrological course, reshape
the earth surface, can erupt volcano etc. Due to earthquake, some other disasters such as
landslides are triggered. Seismic activity, geological factors, extreme precipitation and
geomorphic factors triggers earthquake influenced landslides (Shao and Xu., 2022). Therefore,
its assessment and investigation is very important. Most of the countries have developed their
own departments for hazard assessment and mitigations. These hazards can cause extreme
destruction to the country’s projects (S Khurram et al., 2022).
The role of stakeholders in mitigation of disasters like earthquake is very essential, both
at pre and post-disaster stages. Scientists and engineers can identify the regions where a
boundary of tectonic plate meets. Earthquake resistant infrastructures like bridges, roads and
buildings should be constructed, but not along the fault lines so the damage could be less and
bearable. Federal and Provincial Disaster Management Authorities can form and implement
plans for earthquake so lives and infrastructures could be protected from the disaster.
International Scientific Organizations (ISO) can provide basic needs such as aids and
technologies for the earthquake and health care centers should take measures at the hospital for
the victims of earthquake and rescue wounded to the hospitals. Media can conduct different
programs for the awareness of earthquake and can provide regular news from the earthquake hit
regions (Ali and Memon., 2022). In this modern era of science and technology, earthquake early
warning (EEW) systems have been invented which can detect the early earthquake wave through
the sensor in the devices. EEW systems provides pre-earthquake warnings up to 10-30 seconds,

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so people may mentally prepare themselves and take initial measure from the disaster
(Chandrakumar et al., 2022).
2. Study Area

Figure No: 1 Location of Study Area

2.1 Location
Mirpur is a district in Azad Jammu Kashmir, with its capital New Mirpur City. It is
located to the South of Azad Kashmir. Mirpur is surrounding by Kotli District on the North East,
Gujrat District on the South, Rawalpindi Districts on the West and Bhimber District on the South
East. The coordinates of Mirpur are 33°6’3.87” North to 73°46’16.75” East.
Source (Planning and Development Department Azad Jammu Kashmir)
2.2 Physiography
Mirpur lies 1506 feet above sea level. District receives average rainfall of about 1400
millimeters. It is fertile land with Mangla Dam situated along it.
Source (Planning and Development Department Azad Jammu Kashmir)
2.3 Climates

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 The climate of Mirpur is moderate. In summer, it receives a handful amount of rainfall,
but the winters are dry. Summer season has long duration then winter season.
Source (Planning and Development Department Azad Jammu Kashmir)
2.4 Population
Table No: 1 Population of Mirpur District
Year Population
1998 2.9 million
2017 4.45 million
Source (Planning and Development Department Azad Jammu Kashmir)
3. Research Problem
An earthquake has been experienced by Mirpur, the district of Azad Jammu Kashmir on
September 24th, 2019. Its magnitude was 5.6, massive enough to cause destruction to lives and
infrastructure of the districts. Mirpur is situated near the Indian and Eurasian Plate Boundary.
The subduction of Indian Plate on Eurasian Plate had caused several earthquakes in the region.
So, its study is very important. Though, instant support was provided, but this study focuses on
the occurrence, and the impacts of September 24 th, 2019 earthquake, and how to mitigate them,
so in future minimum loss can be seen.
4. Research Questions
i. What is the size of the destruction caused by the September 24 th, 2019 earthquake in the
region on lives and infrastructure and how we can mitigate the damages caused by
earthquake?
ii. What are the factors that cause the occurrence of earthquake in Mirpur District?
iii. After study, what lessons could be learnt and what role could government play in
earthquake preparation and rehabilitation?
5. Research Objectives
i. To recognize the size of the destruction caused by September 24 th, 2019 earthquake in the
region on lives and infrastructure and mitigating the damages caused by earthquake
ii. To identify factors causing the occurrence of earthquake in Mirpur District
iii. To evaluate lessons which can be learn from the earthquake and roles government can
play in earthquake preparation and rehabilitation
6. Research Hypothesis
i. September 24th, 2019 earthquake was a havoc to the region and caused loss of lives and
major damage to infrastructure

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 ii. Tectonic Plates which are the major sources of seismic activity are the main cause of
earthquake in Mirpur District
iii. Installment of earthquake early warning systems and timely medical assistance, rescue
effectiveness in Mirpur District
7. Methodology
The data used for seismic hazard assessment is mainly secondary data acquired from
satellite imagery especially, Sential-2 because it provides 10 meters of resolution. The imageries
contain fault lines, land cover information etc. Data is processed in GIS platform such as ArcGIS
because it can store and analyze multiple layers.
Kernal Density Estimation method is very beneficial as it determines areas which have
high seismic activity. Proximity Analysis is very important technique used in hazard assessment.
It determines the origin of earthquake occurrence and its distance from population centers. The
impact of earthquake on buildings is determined by Normalized Distance Built-Up Index (NDBI)
Analysis, before and after the occurrence of earthquake. Maps and graphs provide the results of
earthquake impacts. Thematic maps displays the fault lines, epicenters and other information.

Assessing Seismic Hazard Mitigation in Mirpur District: Lessons for Urban

Planning and Infrastructure Development

Data Collection

Secondary Data

Kernal Density Estimation Proximity Analysis NDBI

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 Maps and Graphs
Results

8. Literature Review
Gardezi et al., (2021) stated that earthquake is a natural disaster, which causes destruction
in a vast land out of blue about hundreds of kilometers. The regions which are more densely
populated and have poor infrastructures are more at risk to earthquake. So an appropriate
assessment and evaluation to these regions are very important and must be conducted. National
Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) released a report which incidence 39 causalities with
746 people wounded and the destruction of infrastructures which include houses, educational
institutes, bridges and market shops etc. of roughly about 15000. New Mirpur became the hub of
most damages being caused of about 4 causalities, 12 people wounded and destruction of several
buildings. Evidently, Jhelum Fault is present near New Mirpur and is active and strike slip fault,
with the distance of more or less 70 kilometers. The earthquake was monitored by using
interpretation of secondary data sources of Landsat images of Mirpur. A straight line was
observed on the surface of the region which verified that was a fault. Further, Digital Elevation
Model (DEM) was applied to determine the topographic fronts which also confirm that the
region comprises of faults. Moreover, a field investigation was also conducted which results in
the determination of liquefaction and the collapse of slope. They combine outcome the
destruction of houses, roads, bridges and other infrastructures. Most of the destruction was
caused near the fault line where most of the buildings were constructed, did not keep out the
instant shake of the seismic. Poor materials used to construct infrastructures were also observed
and no survey was supervised during their construction.
Khurram and Khalid., (2021) discovered that many disasters like floods, landslides,
tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and storms can be predicted early before their occurrence, but
earthquake does not provide any it’s early predictions and have instant and drastic influence on
the person, community, infrastructures and economy of a region or a country. So, earthquake
could be said a disaster from which humans are at no time to prepare. Pakistan geographically
located in the South Asia has vast active seismic zones particularly in the Northern, Western and
South-Western side of the country. Many historical earthquakes have occurred here, but
Northern region is more at risk in order to seismic activity. The reason is because of the Indian
and Eurasian Plate Boundary in its vicinity and constant subduction of Indian Plate to Eurasian

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Plate in Northern direction, so the zone is active for seismic movement. Though, resulted in the
formation of many faults and folds in the region and are the main source of world highest
mountain ranges such as Himalayas, Karakoram Range, Pamir and Hindu Kush Range. Almost
every year, earthquake strikes Pakistan, as its strikes Mirpur Azad Jammu Kashmir on
September 24th, 2019 with a magnitude of 5.6 whose epicenter was 33.10°N and 73.76°E and had
a focal depth of 10 kilometers. International Seismological Centre (ISC), United State of
Geological Survey (USGS), Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) was the main source of
secondary data for the study. Also, IRIS satellite images were acquired to measure variations in
the faults, which results in the relative decrease in strike angle but increase in the DIP angle.
Further, radiated seismic energy was also observed for the determination and estimation of P and
S-waves. It was found that the P-waves were 70 seconds ahead of the S-waves. This method is
helpful in detecting the epicenter of earthquake.
Panchal et al., (2022) found that for past many years, earthquakes were considered
unpredictable. But due to satellites, earthquake predictions are possible. Many different methods
have being invented for it. Similarly, the region which is active to seismic activity produces
stress in the plates which are observed by the sub-surface rocks. These rocks then release this
energy in the form of aftershocks. The model being used in earthquake detection and evaluation
is known as Transient Thermal Anomaly. This model refers to the detection of infrared
emissions released from the space borne devices such as satellites before the occurrence of the
disaster on the earth surface. Stressed rocks which possesses enormous amount of energy shifts
are directly related to this model. It is a short term shift in the temperature over a particular
region. The research was conducted on a secondary data acquired from MODIS (Moderate
Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite and LST (Land Surface Temperature), a spatial
analysis technique of day and night tine was applied. Earthquake occurred on September 24 th,
2019, so the data sets of timely LST day time were generated from September 14 th-30th, 2019 and
September 13th-30th, 2019 at nigh time. In day time data sets, 8 days before the occurrence of the
disaster, on September 16th, 2019, there was a detection of major change in temperature of 3-4°C
which was high above the normal or even average temperature in the region. In night time data
sets, 10 days before the occurrence of the disaster, on September 14 th, 2019, an abrupt rise in
temperature of 4-5°C was observed which was again above the normal or even average
temperature in the region. Thermal Anomaly Transient is also known as the forerunner of
earthquake. This study and recent studies have shown a rise of temperature of the region before
the occurrence of earthquake of 5.5 magnitude, equal or greater, especially in those areas which

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comprises of less vegetation. Though, thermal anomalies have been detected in pre- earthquake
occurrences. Another method of InSAR technique for detecting the deformations in the ground
was also performed. Sential-1A satellite imagery data sets were used as a secondary data source.
Interferogram, a wave diagram was generated. The results were finalized and were 5.62
magnitude of earthquake which is similar to 5.6 magnitude earthquake estimated by USGS.
Barkat et al., (2022) states in his article that Eurasian and Indian Plates are the highest
and youngest belts in the world which forms the world’s highest mountain belts, especially the
Himalayan thrust, known as the main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) is overriding the Indian Plate.
This thrust is enormous and rapidly slipping mega thrust of the world. The study is based on the
two secondary data sets from the ascending and descending track of Sential-1A. They were used
to identify the ground deformation after the occurrence of September 24 th, 2019 earthquake in
Mirpur using Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar Technique. Furthermore, the
velocity of P-waves and S-Waves were also acquired from the Centre for Earthquake Studies
(CES) to determine their speed difference and the epicenter of the earthquake. To examine the
change of stress energy in the faults, Coulomb Failure Stress Change Method (∆CFS) was used.
Both positive and negative lines are shown by the InSAR, with its ascending and descending
tracks. Positive line means the movement of ground with regard to the satellite and negative line
means the movement of ground away from the satellite. The results of seismic observation tell us
about the depth of aftershocks that are between 3.5-7.5 kilometers. Coulomb Stress evaluation
resulted in the both increase and decrease of the DIPs. Furthermore, this change detection also
resulted in the increase of stress energy in main Frontal Thrust (MFT).
Shah et al., (2023) realized seismologists have detected the transformations in animal
habits, level of ground reservoirs, temperature electromagnetic signals, timely changes in
velocity, seismic occurrence and have linked them with the pre-earthquake estimation.
Molecules being ionized present in the earth surface rise in the atmosphere when p-hole makes
an appearance. These ionized molecules cause changes and anomalies in ionosphere. Electrons
are confines in the rocks. Due to piezoelectric effect, they are emitted in the atmosphere and
causes anomalies. The method which is used to detect the phenomenon of ionosphere is by using
Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). It uses receiver’s data to run, though, a secondary
data is being used in this study. Total Electron Content (TEC) present in the upper atmosphere
can be detected by the receivers comprising of dual frequencies. This method is applied to
moderate earthquake. Ground and satellite measurements of TEC are used for the detection of
large earthquakes, which results in the changes in pre and post-seismic activities. The result of

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this study shows the change in electron content in ionosphere on Sep 22 nd, 2019. This anomaly
was detected before the occurrence of earthquake, but no changes were detected after the main
event.
9. Significance of Study
As Mirpur District and its surroundings have number of active faults. Therefore, it is very
important to conduct its study. Moreover, earthquake causes causalities and destruction of
infrastructures, so its assessment is very important. This study, however, helps you to find the
open faults in the region that are the major source of seismic activity. Moreover, the mitigation
measures will help to overcome the destruction caused by the earthquake and the sites to
construct structures so there might be low or no loss of lives and rubbles of buildings. This study
can be productive for the urban planning department of Azad Jammu Kashmir, governmental and
private organizations, research purposes and disaster management authorities in future usage.
10. Thesis Structure
The first chapter of the thesis proposal include introduction, the second chapter is
composed of literature review, the third chapter has methodology, the fourth chapter include
results and fifth chapter has discussions and conclusion.
11. References
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Earthquake Disaster Mitigation. Hospitals, 4, 4.
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Tan, M. L. (2022, March). “Saving Precious Seconds”—A Novel Approach to
Implementing a Low-Cost Earthquake Early Warning System with Node-Level Detection
and Alert Generation. In Informatics (Vol. 9, No. 1, p. 25). MDPI.
Khurram, S., Gondal, M. M. I., Ali, S. A., & Zia, U. D. (2022). Cracking and Causes of Ground
Displacement in Rawat Rawalpindi Pakistan (Causes and Effect Report). International
Journal of Earth Sciences Knowledge and Applications, 4(1), 19-25.
Pal, S. C., Saha, A., Chowdhuri, I., Ruidas, D., Chakrabortty, R., Roy, P., & Shit, M. (2023).
Earthquake hotspot and coldspot: Where, why and how?. Geosystems and
Geoenvironment, 2(1), 100130.
Shao, X., & Xu, C. (2022). Earthquake-induced landslides susceptibility assessment: A review of
the state-of-the-art. Natural Hazards Research.

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Panchal, H., Saraf, A. K., Das, J., & Dwivedi, D. (2022). Satellite based detection of pre-
earthquake thermal anomaly, co-seismic deformation and source parameter modelling of
past earthquakes. Natural Hazards Research, 2(4), 287-303.
Gardezi, S. A. H., Hussain, G., Neupane, B., Imran, M., Hamid, Q. Y., Ikram, N., & Asghar, H.
(2021). Geological investigation of 5.6 MW Mirpur earthquake, northwestern Himalayas,
Pakistan. Int. J. Earth Sci., (01), 20-31.
Shah, M., Shahzad, R., Ehsan, M., Ghaffar, B., Ullah, I., Jamjareegulgarn, P., & Hassan, A. M.
(2023). Seismo Ionospheric Anomalies around and over the Epicenters of Pakistan
Earthquakes. Atmosphere, 14(3), 601.
Khurram, S., & Khalid, P. (2021). Source Characteristics of Earthquake 24 Sep 2019 and Their
Consequences. International Journal of Earth Sciences Knowledge and
Applications, 3(3), 217-225.
Barkat, A., Javed, F., Joe Tan, Y., Ali, A., Tahir Javed, M., Ahmad, N., ... & Iqbal, T. (2022).
2019 M w 5.9 Mirpur, Pakistan Earthquake: Insights from Integrating Geodetic, Seismic,
and Field Observations. Seismological Society of America, 93(4), 2015-2026.
https://www.pndajk.gov.pk/statyearbook.php