Theriogenology 150 (2020) 308e312

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Theriogenology
journal homepage: www.theriojournal.com

Prediction of the onset of parturition in horses and cattle

Christina Nagel a, *, Jo
€ rg Aurich b, Christine Aurich c
a
Graf Lehndorff Institute, Vetmeduni Vienna, 16845, Neustadt (Dosse), Germany
b €rplatz 1, 1210, Vienna, Austria
Gynecology, Obstetrics and Andrology, Department for Small Animals and Horses, Vetmeduni Vienna, Veterina
c €rplatz 1, 1210, Vienna, Austria
Artificial Insemination and Embryo Transfer, Department for Small Animals and Horses, Vetmeduni Vienna, Veterina

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Economic losses due to dystocia or neonatal death as well as animal welfare and ethical concerns de-
Received 24 January 2020 mand a reliable prediction of parturition with the aim to improve survival of the dam and her offspring.
Accepted 29 January 2020 In this review, estimation of gestational age by ultrasound and prediction of parturition based on clinical
Available online 19 February 2020
signs, behaviour changes and changes in body temperature, composition of mammary gland secretions
as well as hormonal changes are discussed in comparison between horses and cattle. Based on the
Keywords:
physiological changes associated with the end of gestation and onset of labor, several systems and
Gestational age
methods to predict parturition in horses and cattle have been developed. Physiological differences
Birth alarm
Parturition
related to breed, maternal age and parity, pathological changes due to intrauterine growth retardation,
Mare placental problems or general illness of the dam but also housing and management systems bias a
Cow reliable prediction of parturition. This may be acceptable in cattle as long as birth alarm systems give
satisfying results at herd level. The situation is different in the horse where the economic and emotional
value of an individual mare and her foal usually reaches different dimensions than in cows. The possi-
bilities for prediction of parturition can thus be discussed together, the consequences, however, may
differ considerably between the two species.
© 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction parturition. This review will focus on the prediction of parturition,

Despite considerable advances in veterinary obstetrics and
perinatal medicine, dystocia and the birth of compromised neo-
nates are still a major problem in both horses [1] and cattle [2]. Not
only economic losses but also ethical concerns, animal welfare and
emotions warrant a better prediction of parturition with the aim to
improve survival of the dam and her offspring. Gestation length in
horses and cattle can vary considerably and is among other factors
influenced by breed, parity and sex of the neonate [3,4]. In cattle,
clinical signs of impending parturition are more obvious than in
horses but still prediction of the calving time is challenging.
Furthermore, duration of parturition and thus the time window to
deliver viable neonates with obstetrical intervention differs
considerably between horses and cattle. To improve management
and to shift birth of the neonate to daytime hours, parturition can
be induced, but this should be restricted to animals with a known
breeding date or e especially in horses e clear signs of impending
* Corresponding author. Graf Lehndorff Institute for Equine science, Vetmeduni
Vienna, Hauptgestüt 10, 16845, Neustadt (Dosse), Germany.
E-mail address: christina.nagel@vetmeduni.ac.at (C. Nagel).
comparing horses and cattle.
1.1. Assessment of gestational age
In veterinary medicine, fetal morphometry is useful for evalu-
ation of fetal development, estimation of gestational age and pre-
diction of parturition if the breeding date is unknown or unclear.
While determination of gestational age is feasible during early
pregnancy in horses [5] and cattle [3], it becomes more difficult in
late gestation due to the size of the fetus and its position in the
maternal abdomen. In cattle, determination of placentome size,
fetal thoracic, abdominal and umbilical diameter as well as heart
width via ultrasound are the most reliable variables for prediction
of gestational age (Table 1) [6,7]. In horses, combined utero-
placental thickness, fetal fluid depth as well as orbital diameter,
heart rate, aortic diameter and size of fetal abdominal and thoracic
organs are closely related to gestational age [8]. Among those,
aortic diameter [8,9], orbital diameter [8,10,11] and sonographic
appearance of the intestine [12] have been recommended for pre-
diction of fetal age. In horses and cattle, fetal heart rate decreases
with ongoing gestation and may be used for estimation of

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.theriogenology.2020.01.072
0093-691X/© 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
 C. Nagel et al. / Theriogenology 150 (2020) 308e312 309

Table 1
Prediction of parturition in horses and cattle based on different physiological parameters.

Method Mare Cow

Endpoint Feasibility/Reliability Endpoint Feasibility/Reliability

Ultrasound Aortic diameter [8,9] Distance of uterine walls [7] until 170 d of gestation
examination before Orbital size [8,10,11] 95% CI
± 64 d (last month of Umbilical cord width [7] until 210 d of gestation
parturition gestation)
Fetal intestines [12] 95% CI ± 4 d Placentome length and height [6] 70e190 d of gestation
95% CI
± 20 d
Intercostal distance, trunk and heart 2nd & 3rd trimesters of gestation
width [7]
Clinical signs No clear and constant signs no statistical significance Score of 7 clinical signs [16] sensitivity: 79.0% no calf ± 12 h
specificity: 78.7% no calf ± 12 h
Behavioural changes Activity [[ [45] 6 out of 8 mares 30-20 min before activity [ [50] - most often used for automated alarm
foaling tail raising [ systems
rumination Y - sensitivity and specificity depend
changes in lying behaviour and increase with technical progress
Body temperature - last 3 h before foaling sensitivity:
86% feasible at e.g. vagina, ear, reticulo-
changes [28,38,39] false alarm:
23% rumen [36], ventral tail base [37]
- different techniques possible vaginal temperature [16,35] sensitivity:
86% calving ± 24 h
but not commercially available - different techniques available specificity:
91% calving ± 24 h
Changes in pre- Calcium, calcium þ magnesium sensitivity: 98.2% foaling ± 24 h Inorganic phosphorus [ [31] 5 out of 23 cows: calving ± 24 h
colostrum or calcium carbonate [ [25] specificity: 83.8% foaling ± 24 h 94.7% chance of no calf ± 24
- different techniques available
pH Y 6.4 [30] sensitivity: 96.3% foaling ± 24 h
- different techniques available specificity: 99.3% foaling ± 72 h
Immunoglobulin concentration sensitivity: 81.5% foaling ± 24 h
[30] specificity: 86.0% foaling ± 72 h
- Brix of 20%
Hormonal changes Cortisol [ [20] high individual variation during Estrone sulphate [ [17] 23 out of 37 cows calving ± 24 h
- blood/saliva the last 1e2 days before foaling - blood
Progesterone Y [16] sensitivity: 93.5% calving ± 12 h
- blood/milk specificity: 91.6% calving ± 12 h
Cortisol [ [21] only during the last 1e3 h before end
- blood/saliva of stage 2 of parturition

Confidence interval (CI).

gestational age but is not reliable for prediction of parturition
[13,14]. Limitations of all these techniques, however, are caused by
differences in fetal growth related to breed, maternal age and parity
[10,11,15] and intrauterine growth retardation [11].
1.2. Prediction of parturition based on clinical symptoms
In mares, clinical signs of impending parturition such as mam-
mary gland development and relaxation of the pelvic ligaments are
highly variable and inconsistent [16]. In cattle, relaxation of the
broad pelvic ligaments is considered the best individual sign for
impending parturition [17,18]. It reaches a maximum one day
before calving, corresponding to the increase in estrone sulphate
concentration [18]. Using more than two clinical parameters to
predict calving did not increase accuracy but increased variation
and thus was detrimental to precision. Most accurate is the pre-
diction “no calving within 12 h” which was correct in 99% of cows
[17].
1.3. Prediction of parturition based on behavioural changes
During the last days before parturition, behaviour changes occur
in most animal species but are biased by housing and management
systems [19,20]. In mares, an increase in the daily activity and a
decrease in nocturnal lying time during the last one to two days
before onset of foaling were reported [21,22]. A pronounced in-
crease in animal activity occurs during the last 20e30 min before
birth of the foal. This is, however, not accompanied by an increase
in the mare’s heart rate [23,24]. Similar changes occur in cows
during the last two to four days before parturition with maximal
activity in the last six hours before birth of the calf [25]. During this
time, the number of steps and lying bouts increases with
decreasing standing time and a shorter duration of lying bouts [26].
Furthermore, tail raising, licking the ground and the body, vocali-
zation and defecation become also more frequent while eating,
drinking and rumination activity decrease [25,27]. Behavioural
changes can also be recorded via video cameras and data trans-
mission via the internet, allowing close supervision of parturient
animals without the need for the observer to be present in the
stable. Instead of direct observation of behavioural changes in
prepartum animals, the use of monitoring systems that transfer
changes indicative for parturition into a clear alarm signal has
attracted increasing attraction.
1.4. Prediction of parturition based on changes in body temperature
An association between concentrations of steroid hormones and
body temperature is known in many species and especially useful
for prediction of parturition in dogs [28]. In cattle, induction of
parturition decreased body temperature, which is most probably
associated with the rapid decrease in progesterone concentration
[29]. Progesterone concentration and body temperature are, how-
ever, only loosely correlated in cattle [30]. Several authors have
addressed the possibility to predict parturition in cattle based on
body temperature with moderate to good accuracy [17,31e33].
Results are even less satisfying in the horse, a species where no
immediate decrease in prepartum progestin levels exists. Even if
the physiological background is unknown, body temperature de-
creases also in horses before foaling and a pronounced drop in body
temperature occurred during the last three hours before foaling
310 C. Nagel et al. / Theriogenology 150 (2020) 308e312

[34e36]. 4
increase towards foaling

Salivary cortisol (ng/ml)

1.5. Prediction of parturition based on changes in mammary gland
secretion late pregnant mares
3
non pregnant mares
In horses, mammary gland secretion changes in colour, consis-
tency, and concentration of electrolytes (sodium, chloride, potas-
sium and calcium), lactose, total protein, albumin and globulins 2
time: p<0.001
during the last ten days before foaling [37]. Whereas colour and
consistency of pre-colostrum are highly variable among individuals
and thus not predictive for parturition, changes in electrolyte
1
composition are largely consistent [16,37]. Three to five days before
foaling, the sodium to potassium ratio inverts with a decrease of
sodium <30 mmol/L and an increase of potassium >35 mmol/L. An
increase in calcium concentration >10 mmol/L shortly before 0
foaling is widely used for prediction of foaling and foal maturity -5 -4 -3 -2 -1
[16,37e39]. The physiological background of changes in pre-
colostrum electrolyte composition is unknown, although effects
Days before foaling
of parathyroid hormone on calcium metabolism have been sug- Fig. 1. Salivary cortisol concentration in mares (n ¼ 22e24) during the last 5 days
gested [40]. Under studfarm conditions, testing electrolyte before foaling. White part of the bar indicates mean salivary cortisol concentration in
composition at least once daily is recommended [37,38]. Only two non pregnant mares (n ¼ 7). Black part of the bar indicates mean salivary cortisol
concentration in late pregnant mares (n ¼ 10e22) from day 15 to 5 before foaling
percent of mares give birth within 24 h if calcium carbonate is
and grey part of the bar indicates increase of salivary cortisol concentration during the
higher than 200 ppm. Therefore, testing of pre-colostrum calcium last 5 days before foaling.
concentration is most reliable to predict when the mare is not ready
to foal [39]. Pre-colostrum calcium testing is superior to most other
tests to predict foaling, but not recommended for mares with pla- concentration occur [47,48]. In horse mares, salivary cortisol con-
centitis [41] or galactorrhea [37]. Changes in mammary gland centration starts to increase one to two days before parturition
electrolyte composition strongly correlate with a decrease in pre- (Fig. 1), while salivary cortisol concentration in cattle increases only
colostrum pH towards parturition. Determination of pre- during the last hour before birth of the calf. Because of individual
colostrum pH daily in the evening enabled prediction of parturi- variations, determination of rising salivary cortisol concentrations
tion in almost 80% of mares [34]. Whereas higher pre-colostrum so far is, however, not feasible for prediction of parturition (Nagel
calcium concentrations exist in pluriparous versus primiparous and Aurich, unpublished).
mares, the antepartum pH decrease does not differ between plu-
riparous and maiden mares [42]. Nevertheless, cut off values of pH 1.7. Monitoring systems to predict time of parturition
differed among studies [34,43] and horse breeds (Nagel et al., un-
published). Induction of parturition based on a gestation length In cattle, automated monitoring systems are widely used and
>330 days, calcium carbonate concentration 250 ppm, pre- commercially available for health management, estrus detection
colostrum pH
6.5 and impending signs of parturition was a safe and prediction of parturition. Such systems increasingly make use
and efficacious treatment with no increased risk of dystocia or birth of small sensors attached to the animals e,g. as ear-tags that record
of immature foals. Including pH in the protocol increased the
likelihood that induced mares were very close to foaling [1]. In
horses, also changes in pre-colostrum immunoglobulin concen- 110
tration determined by Brix refractometer can be used for prediction
Heart rate (beats/min)

of parturition [43], however, Brix values are higher in maiden than time: p=0.001
in pluriparous mares [42]. In contrast, assessment of pre-colostrum
in cattle is not common. Information on prepartum changes in
100
mammary gland secretion of cows is scarce and limited to con-
centrations of calcium, potassium, magnesium and inorganic
phosphorus that increase while those of sodium and chloride 90
decrease during the last 12 days before onset of calving [44].

1.6. Prediction of parturition based on hormonal changes 80

Horses and cattle differ in the endocrine regulation of preg-
nancy and parturition. Progesterone concentration in cattle de-
creases abruptly after luteolysis [17] and a parallel increase in 70
estrone sulphate concentration indicates calving within 24 h [18]. A
decrease of progesterone concentration <1.2 ng/mL predicts
-32
-26
-20
-14
-11
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1

calving within 12 h [17]. Concentration of steroid hormones in

blood and pre-colostrum are positively correlated in the immediate
antepartum period [45] but neither for blood nor milk on farm tests Hours before rupture
are available. In late pregnant mares, the concentrations of pro-
gestins produced by the feto-placental unit is still high at foaling of the allantochorion
and thus not suitable for the prediction of foaling [46]. In both Fig. 2. Heart rate in cows (n ¼ 4e6) during the last 32 h before rupture of the
species, characteristic changes in plasma and salivary cortisol allantochorion.
 C. Nagel et al. / Theriogenology 150 (2020) 308e312
and integrate a variety of parameters [reviewed by [49]]. In horses,
automated monitoring systems are much less frequently used. For
horses, birth monitoring devices which determine body surface
temperature and/or position of the mare (standing or lying), are
commercially available. In addition, transponder systems sutured
onto the vulva of mares and cows that trigger an alarm when fetal
membranes spread the rima vulvae have been developed [42,50]. In
mares, such devices detected foaling in 84% of animals. Foaling
without alarm is often related to technical problems but false
alarms (11%) may occur when the magnet is detached e.g. by tail
rubbing [42]. Such systems may have fatal consequences e.g. in rare
dystocia cases with transverse position of the fetus. In cattle, such
monitoring devices are equipped with GPS to allow their applica-
tion under intensive and extensive management conditions with
high reliability [50]. In contrast to mares, heart rate of calving cows
increases and is maximal during the last hour before the calf is born
(Fig. 2) [48], thus facilitating detection of parturition in this species.
Internal temperature sensors [32,36] and accelerometers or pe-
dometers for measurements of activity and laying behaviour
[24,26] can be used in cattle and horses, but at present are only
commercially available for cattle.
2. Conclusions
Based on physiological changes associated with the end of
gestation and onset of labor, several systems are suggested for the
prediction of parturition in horses and cattle. All approaches have
limitations that may be acceptable in cows managed at herd level
but much less in horse mares with a high individual economic and
emotional value. Thus, although the possibilities for prediction of
parturition are mostly similar, the consequences may differ
considerably among species.
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