EXHIBIT 1: NORTHERN NAPA VALLEY WINERY - MONTHLY WINE SALES 2000 TO 2008

Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

January 6,632 6,979 8,225 11,267 10,053 11,098 10,272
February 6,534 6,962 8,164 8,889 10,807 11,089 10,602
March 6,675 7,606 9,324 9,612 10,713 11,730 11,156
April 6,692 7,909 8,820 10,511 10,731 11,534 11,602
May 6,984 8,504 9,313 10,571 11,344 12,323 10,791
June 7,133 7,977 9,419 10,644 11,510 12,067 11,970
July 6,385 7,816 8,700 9,766 10,725 10,893 12,269
August 7,364 6,520 6,960 7,672 8,395 9,137 9,686
September 7,171 8,525 9,091 11,016 11,983 12,805 13,442
October 8,690 9,510 10,933 11,802 14,028 14,612 14,774
November 10,299 12,079 13,117 14,923 17,202 18,844 18,460
December 11,997 11,997 15,337 17,460 18,821 22,207 21,951
2000 TO 2008

2007 2008
12,287 14,031
11,519 13,109
12,767 14,248
13,235 14,468
13,643 14,250
13,552 15,024
13,349 13,837
10,240 10,522
14,781
17,123
20,396
23,609
 EXHIBIT 1: NORTHERN NAPA VALLEY WINERY - MO

Month 2000 2001 2002 2003

January 6,632 6,979 8,225 11,267
February 6,534 6,962 8,164 8,889
March 6,675 7,606 9,324 9,612
April 6,692 7,909 8,820 10,511
May 6,984 8,504 9,313 10,571
June 7,133 7,977 9,419 10,644
July 6,385 7,816 8,700 9,766
August 7,364 6,520 6,960 7,672
September 7,171 8,525 9,091 11,016
October 8,690 9,510 10,933 11,802
November 10,299 12,079 13,117 14,923
December 11,997 13,746 15,337 17,460

EXHIBIT 1: NORTHERN NAPA VALLEY WINERY - MONTHLY WINE SALES 2000 TO 2008

Year Month Period Sales (Cases) 12 Months Moving Average

January January 2000 6,632
February February 2000 6,534
March March 2000 6,675
April April 2000 6,692
May May 2000 6,984
June June 2000 7,133 7,713.0
2000
July July 2000 6,385 7,741.9
August August 2000 7,364 7,777.6
September September 2000 7,171 7,855.2
October October 2000 8,690 7,956.6
November November 2000 10,299 8,083.3
December December 2000 11,997 8,153.6
January January 2001 6,979 8,272.8
February February 2001 6,962 8,202.5
March March 2001 7,606 8,315.3
April April 2001 7,909 8,383.7
May May 2001 8,504 8,532.0
June June 2001 7,977 8,532.0
2001
July July 2001 7,816 8,635.8
August August 2001 6,520 8,736.0
September September 2001 8,525 8,879.2
October October 2001 9,510 8,955.1
November November 2001 12,079 9,022.5
December December 2001 11,997 9,142.7
January January 2002 8,225 9,216.3
February February 2002 8,164 9,253.0

2002
 March March 2002 9,324 9,300.2
April April 2002 8,820 9,418.8
May May 2002 9,313 9,505.3
June June 2002 9,419 9,783.6
2002
July July 2002 8,700 10,037.1
August August 2002 6,960 10,097.5
September September 2002 9,091 10,121.5
October October 2002 10,933 10,262.4
November November 2002 13,117 10,367.3
December December 2002 15,337 10,469.3
January January 2003 11,267 10,558.2
February February 2003 8,889 10,617.5
March March 2003 9,612 10,777.9
April April 2003 10,511 10,850.3
May May 2003 10,571 11,000.8
June June 2003 10,644 11,177.8
2003
July July 2003 9,766 11,076.6
August August 2003 7,672 11,236.4
September September 2003 11,016 11,328.2
October October 2003 11,802 11,346.5
November November 2003 14,923 11,410.9
December December 2003 17,460 11,483.1
January January 2004 10,053 11,563.0
February February 2004 10,807 11,623.3
March March 2004 10,713 11,703.8
April April 2004 10,731 11,889.3
May May 2004 11,344 12,079.3
June June 2004 11,510 12,192.7
2004
July July 2004 10,725 12,279.8
August August 2004 8,395 12,303.3
September September 2004 11,983 12,388.0
October October 2004 14,028 12,454.9
November November 2004 17,202 12,536.5
December December 2004 18,821 12,582.9
January January 2005 11,098 12,596.9
February February 2005 11,089 12,658.8
March March 2005 11,730 12,727.3
April April 2005 11,534 12,775.9
May May 2005 12,323 12,912.8
June June 2005 12,067 13,194.9
2005
July July 2005 10,893 13,126.1
August August 2005 9,137 13,085.5
September September 2005 12,805 13,037.7
October October 2005 14,612 13,043.3
November November 2005 18,844 12,915.7
December December 2005 22,207 12,907.6
January January 2006 10,272 13,022.3
 February February 2006 10,602 13,068.0
March March 2006 11,156 13,121.1
April April 2006 11,602 13,134.6
May May 2006 10,791 13,102.6
June June 2006 11,970 13,081.3
2006
July July 2006 12,269 13,249.2
August August 2006 9,686 13,325.6
September September 2006 13,442 13,459.8
October October 2006 14,774 13,595.9
November November 2006 18,460 13,833.6
December December 2006 21,951 13,965.4
January January 2007 12,287 14,055.4
February February 2007 11,519 14,101.6
March March 2007 12,767 14,213.2
April April 2007 13,235 14,408.9
May May 2007 13,643 14,570.3
June June 2007 13,552 14,708.4
2007
July July 2007 13,349 14,853.8
August August 2007 10,240 14,986.3
September September 2007 14,781 15,109.7
October October 2007 17,123 15,212.4
November November 2007 20,396 15,263.0
December December 2007 23,609 15,385.7
January January 2008 14,031 15,426.3
February February 2008 13,109 15,449.8
March March 2008 14,248
April April 2008 14,468
May May 2008 14,250
June June 2008 15,024
2008
July July 2008 13,837
August August 2008 10,522
September September 2008
October October 2008
November November 2008
December December 2008
January January 2009
February February 2009
March March 2009
April April 2009
May May 2009
2009 June June 2009
July July 2009
August August 2009
September September 2009
October October 2009
November November 2009
December December 2009
T 1: NORTHERN NAPA VALLEY WINERY - MONTHLY WINE SALES 2000 TO 2008

2004 2005 2006

10,053 11,098 10,272
10,807 11,089 10,602
10,713 11,730 11,156
10,731 11,534 11,602
11,344 12,323 10,791
11,510 12,067 11,970
10,725 10,893 12,269
8,395 9,137 9,686
11,983 12,805 13,442
14,028 14,612 14,774
17,202 18,844 18,460
18,821 22,207 21,951

NERY - MONTHLY WINE SALES 2000 TO 2008

2 Months Centered Moving Average Irregular Seasonality Index Normalized Seasonality Index
0.893
0.857
0.917
0.926
0.946
0.940
7,727.5 0.826 0.878
7,759.8 0.949 0.734
7,816.4 0.917 0.962
7,905.9 1.099 1.093
8,019.9 1.284 1.340
8,118.4 1.478 1.516
8,213.2 0.850 0.893
8,237.7 0.845 0.857
8,258.9 0.921 0.917
8,349.5 0.947 0.926
8,457.8 1.005 0.946
8,532.0 0.935 0.940
8,583.9 0.911 0.878
8,685.9 0.751 0.734
8,807.6 0.968 0.962
8,917.1 1.066 1.093
8,988.8 1.344 1.340
9,082.6 1.321 1.516
9,179.5 0.896 0.893
9,234.7 0.884 0.857
 9,276.6 1.005 0.917
9,359.5 0.942 0.926
9,462.0 0.984 0.946
9,644.4 0.977 0.940
9,910.3 0.878 0.878
10,067.3 0.691 0.734
10,109.5 0.899 0.962
10,192.0 1.073 1.093
10,314.8 1.272 1.340
10,418.3 1.472 1.516
10,513.8 1.072 0.893
10,587.8 0.840 0.857
10,697.7 0.899 0.917
10,814.1 0.972 0.926
10,925.6 0.968 0.946
11,089.3 0.960 0.940
11,127.2 0.878 0.878
11,156.5 0.688 0.734
11,282.3 0.976 0.962
11,337.3 1.041 1.093
11,378.7 1.311 1.340
11,447.0 1.525 1.516
11,523.0 0.872 0.893
11,593.1 0.932 0.857
11,663.5 0.919 0.917
11,796.6 0.910 0.926
11,984.3 0.947 0.946
12,136.0 0.948 0.940
12,236.2 0.876 0.878
12,291.5 0.683 0.734
12,345.6 0.971 0.962
12,421.5 1.129 1.093
12,495.7 1.377 1.340
12,559.7 1.499 1.516
12,589.9 0.881 0.893
12,627.8 0.878 0.857
12,693.0 0.924 0.917
12,751.6 0.905 0.926
12,844.3 0.959 0.946
13,053.8 0.924 0.940
13,160.5 0.828 0.878
13,105.8 0.697 0.734
13,061.6 0.980 0.962
13,040.5 1.121 1.093
12,979.5 1.452 1.340
12,911.6 1.720 1.516
12,964.9 0.792 0.893
13,045.1 0.813 0.857
13,094.5 0.852 0.917
13,127.8 0.884 0.926
13,118.6 0.823 0.946
13,091.9 0.914 0.940
13,165.2 0.932 0.878
13,287.4 0.729 0.734
13,392.7 1.004 0.962
13,527.9 1.092 1.093
13,714.8 1.346 1.340
13,899.5 1.579 1.516
14,010.4 0.877 0.893
14,078.5 0.818 0.857
14,157.4 0.902 0.917
14,311.0 0.925 0.926
14,489.6 0.942 0.946
14,639.3 0.926 0.940
14,781.1 0.903 0.878
14,920.0 0.686 0.734
15,048.0 0.982 0.962
15,161.0 1.129 1.093
15,237.7 1.339 1.340
15,324.3 1.541 1.516
15,406.0 0.911 0.893
15,438.1 0.849 0.857
0.917
0.926
0.946
0.940
0.878
0.734
0.962
1.093
1.340
1.516
0.893
0.857
0.917
0.926
0.946
0.940
0.878
0.734
0.962
1.093
1.340
1.516
 2007 2008
12,287 14,031
11,519 13,109
12,767 14,248
13,235 14,468
13,643 14,250
13,552 15,024
13,349 13,837
10,240 10,522
14,781
17,123
20,396
23,609

Deseasonallity Sales Period Deseasonalized Forecast Forecast Forecast Error ABS(Error)

7,424.53 1 7,398.14 6,608.43 23.57 23.57
7,626.45 2 7,479.25 6,407.89 126.11 126.11
7,282.36 3 7,560.36 6,929.81 -254.81 254.81
7,229.54 4 7,641.47 7,073.31 -381.31 381.31
7,382.14 5 7,722.58 7,306.09 -322.09 322.09
7,589.00 6 7,803.70 7,334.80 -201.80 201.80
7,269.74 7 7,884.81 6,925.21 -540.21 540.21
10,036.53 8 7,965.92 5,844.75 1,519.25 1,519.25
7,457.93 9 8,047.03 7,737.43 -566.43 566.43
7,950.37 10 8,128.14 8,884.31 -194.31 194.31
7,688.59 11 8,209.25 10,996.43 -697.43 697.43
7,915.30 12 8,290.37 12,565.47 -568.47 568.47
7,812.99 13 8,371.48 7,477.87 -498.87 498.87
8,126.01 14 8,452.59 7,241.80 -279.80 279.80
8,298.07 15 8,533.70 7,821.97 -215.97 215.97
8,544.29 16 8,614.81 7,974.28 -65.28 65.28
8,988.79 17 8,695.92 8,226.93 277.07 277.07
8,486.95 18 8,777.04 8,249.65 -272.65 272.65
8,899.03 19 8,858.15 7,780.09 35.91 35.91
8,886.23 20 8,939.26 6,558.91 -38.91 38.91
8,866.11 21 9,020.37 8,673.33 -148.33 148.33
8,700.58 22 9,101.48 9,948.19 -438.19 438.19
9,017.43 23 9,182.59 12,300.24 -221.24 221.24
7,915.30 24 9,263.70 14,040.74 -2,043.74 2,043.74
9,207.89 25 9,344.82 8,347.31 -122.31 122.31
9,528.97 26 9,425.93 8,075.71 88.29 88.29
10,172.40 27 9,507.04 8,714.13 609.87 609.87
9,528.47 28 9,588.15 8,875.25 -55.25 55.25
9,843.91 29 9,669.26 9,147.77 165.23 165.23
10,021.14 30 9,750.37 9,164.51 254.49 254.49
9,905.52 31 9,831.49 8,634.97 65.03 65.03
9,485.91 32 9,912.60 7,273.07 -313.07 313.07
9,454.76 33 9,993.71 9,609.22 -518.22 518.22
10,002.47 34 10,074.82 11,012.08 -79.08 79.08
9,792.34 35 10,155.93 13,604.04 -487.04 487.04
10,118.94 36 10,237.04 15,516.00 -179.00 179.00
12,613.41 37 10,318.16 9,216.75 2,050.25 2,050.25
10,375.19 38 10,399.27 8,909.63 -20.63 20.63
10,486.60 39 10,480.38 9,606.30 5.70 5.70
11,355.30 40 10,561.49 9,776.22 734.78 734.78
11,173.62 41 10,642.60 10,068.62 502.38 502.38
11,324.45 42 10,723.71 10,079.36 564.64 564.64
11,119.23 43 10,804.82 9,489.85 276.15 276.15
10,456.31 44 10,885.94 7,987.22 -315.22 315.22
11,456.78 45 10,967.05 10,545.11 470.89 470.89
10,797.51 46 11,048.16 12,075.97 -273.97 273.97
11,140.58 47 11,129.27 14,907.85 15.15 15.15
11,519.64 48 11,210.38 16,991.26 468.74 468.74
11,254.34 49 11,291.49 10,086.19 -33.19 33.19
12,613.87 50 11,372.61 9,743.54 1,063.46 1,063.46
11,687.78 51 11,453.72 10,498.46 214.54 214.54
11,592.97 52 11,534.83 10,677.18 53.82 53.82
11,990.69 53 11,615.94 10,989.46 354.54 354.54
12,245.81 54 11,697.05 10,994.21 515.79 515.79
12,211.12 55 11,778.16 10,344.74 380.26 380.26
11,441.70 56 11,859.28 8,701.38 -306.38 306.38
12,462.47 57 11,940.39 11,481.00 502.00 502.00
12,834.05 58 12,021.50 13,139.86 888.14 888.14
12,841.94 59 12,102.61 16,211.65 990.35 990.35
12,417.59 60 12,183.72 18,466.53 354.47 354.47
12,424.22 61 12,264.83 10,955.63 142.37 142.37
12,943.02 62 12,345.95 10,577.45 511.55 511.55
12,797.32 63 12,427.06 11,390.62 339.38 339.38
12,460.47 64 12,508.17 11,578.15 -44.15 44.15
13,025.50 65 12,589.28 11,910.31 412.69 412.69
12,838.42 66 12,670.39 11,909.07 157.93 157.93
12,402.40 67 12,751.50 11,199.62 -306.62 306.62
12,452.99 68 12,832.61 9,415.54 -278.54 278.54
13,317.36 69 12,913.73 12,416.89 388.11 388.11
13,368.34 70 12,994.84 14,203.75 408.25 408.25
14,067.76 71 13,075.95 17,515.45 1,328.55 1,328.55
14,651.59 72 13,157.06 19,941.79 2,265.21 2,265.21
11,499.51 73 13,238.17 11,825.07 -1,553.07 1,553.07
12,374.59 74 13,319.28 11,411.37 -809.37 809.37
12,171.09 75 13,400.40 12,282.78 -1,126.78 1,126.78
12,533.93 76 13,481.51 12,479.12 -877.12 877.12
11,406.16 77 13,562.62 12,831.15 -2,040.15 2,040.15
12,735.22 78 13,643.73 12,823.92 -853.92 853.92
13,969.06 79 13,724.84 12,054.50 214.50 214.50
13,201.23 80 13,805.95 10,129.70 -443.70 443.70
13,979.85 81 13,887.07 13,352.78 89.22 89.22
13,516.55 82 13,968.18 15,267.64 -493.64 493.64
13,781.09 83 14,049.29 18,819.26 -359.26 359.26
14,482.69 84 14,130.40 21,417.05 533.95 533.95
13,755.30 85 14,211.51 12,694.51 -407.51 407.51
13,444.91 86 14,292.62 12,245.28 -726.28 726.28
13,928.68 87 14,373.73 13,174.94 -407.94 407.94
14,298.10 88 14,454.85 13,380.09 -145.09 145.09
14,420.75 89 14,535.96 13,752.00 -109.00 109.00
14,418.35 90 14,617.07 13,738.78 -186.78 186.78
15,198.72 91 14,698.18 12,909.38 439.62 439.62
13,956.29 92 14,779.29 10,843.86 -603.86 603.86
15,372.43 93 14,860.40 14,288.67 492.33 492.33
15,665.62 94 14,941.52 16,331.53 791.47 791.47
15,226.39 95 15,022.63 20,123.06 272.94 272.94
15,576.59 96 15,103.74 22,892.31 716.69 716.69
15,707.71 97 15,184.85 13,563.95 467.05 467.05
15,300.75 98 15,265.96 13,079.19 29.81 29.81
15,544.43 99 15,347.07 14,067.10 180.90 180.90
15,630.14 100 15,428.19 14,281.06 186.94 186.94
15,062.35 101 15,509.30 14,672.84 -422.84 422.84
15,984.45 102 15,590.41 14,653.63 370.37 370.37
15,754.34 103 15,671.52 13,764.26 72.74 72.74
14,340.63 104 15,752.63 11,558.01 -1,036.01 1,036.01
105 15,833.74 15,224.57 15,224.57 BIAS MAD
106 15,914.85 17,395.42 17,395.42 4.79 464.12
107 15,995.97 21,426.87 21,426.87
108 16,077.08 24,367.58 24,367.58
109 16,158.19 14,433.39 14,433.39 Error = Real - Pron
110 16,239.30 13,913.11 13,913.11
111 16,320.41 14,959.26 14,959.26
112 16,401.52 15,182.03 15,182.03
113 16,482.64 15,593.68 15,593.68
114 16,563.75 15,568.49 15,568.49
115 16,644.86 14,619.14 14,619.14
116 16,725.97 12,272.17 12,272.17
117 16,807.08 16,160.46 16,160.46
118 16,888.19 18,459.31 18,459.31
119 16,969.31 22,730.67 22,730.67
120 17,050.42 25,842.84 25,842.84
% Error Error2
0.36% 555.68 Paso 1: Diagrama de Dispersión
1.93% 15,904.50
3.82% 64,929.84
5.70% 145,396.57 Sales (Cases)
4.61% 103,738.85
25,000
2.83% 40,722.29
8.46% 291,826.75 20,000
20.63% 2,308,118.20 15,000
7.90% 320,847.73
10,000
Cases

2.24% 37,754.50
6.77% 486,414.17 5,000
4.74% 323,163.29 -
7.15% 248,868.83 00 00 00 01 01 01 02 02 02 03 03 03 04 04 04 05 05 05 06 06 06 07 0
y 20 y 20 r 20 y 20 y 20 r 20 y 20 y 20 r 20 y 20 y 20 r 20 y 20 y 20 r 20 y 20 y 20 r 20 y 20 y 20 r 20 y 20 y 20
4.02% 78,288.24 ar a be ar a be ar a be ar a be ar a be ar a be ar a be ar a be
nu M em anu M em anu M em anu M em anu M em anu M em anu M em anu M em
2.84% 46,644.84 Ja pt J pt J pt J pt J pt J pt J pt J pt J
Se Se Se Se Se Se Se Se
0.83% 4,261.18
3.26% 76,768.07 Month - Year
3.42% 74,339.11
0.46% 1,289.42
Sales (Cases)
0.60% 1,513.89
1.74% 22,000.49 Paso 2: Elegir el tipo de modelo a utilizar
4.61% 192,014.14
1.83% 48,946.29 Se debe utilizar el modelo multiplicativo, con tendencia y estacionalidad.
17.04% 4,176,861.97
1.49% 14,959.24 Paso 3: Calcular los valores de los índices estacionales irregulares, ordenarlos por año y po
1.08% 7,794.45
 6.54% 371,935.34 2000 2001 2002 2003
0.63% 3,052.17 January 0.850 0.896 1.072
1.77% 27,299.69 February 0.845 0.884 0.840
2.70% 64,767.03 March 0.921 1.005 0.899
0.75% 4,228.48 April 0.947 0.942 0.972
4.50% 98,010.71 May 1.005 0.984 0.968
5.70% 268,548.91 June 0.935 0.977 0.960
0.72% 6,254.15 July 0.826 0.911 0.878 0.878
3.71% 237,210.06 August 0.949 0.751 0.691 0.688
1.17% 32,040.99 September 0.917 0.968 0.899 0.976
18.20% 4,203,531.66 October 1.099 1.066 1.073 1.041
0.23% 425.48 November 1.284 1.344 1.272 1.311
0.06% 32.54 December 1.478 1.321 1.472 1.525
6.99% 539,908.72
4.75% 252,387.51
5.30% 318,817.58 Intercepto = 7,317.03 Demanda T =7317.03 + 81.11xT
2.83% 76,256.13 Pendiente = 81.11
4.11% 99,366.51 R2 = 92.55%
4.27% 221,738.84 r= 96.20%
2.32% 75,060.77
0.10% 229.64 Paso 4: Generar el pronóstico
2.68% 219,714.65
0.33% 1,101.50 Paso 5: Calcular las metricas de los errores del pronóstico
9.84% 1,130,945.80
2.00% 46,028.86
0.50% 2,896.17
3.13% 125,696.84
4.48% 266,034.17
3.55% 144,600.30
3.65% 93,870.21
4.19% 252,004.12
6.33% 788,790.51
5.76% 980,792.49
1.88% 125,652.22
1.28% 20,269.43
4.61% 261,679.24
2.89% 115,180.53
0.38% 1,949.46
3.35% 170,315.65
1.31% 24,942.10
2.81% 94,014.71
3.05% 77,584.74
3.03% 150,628.37
2.79% 166,667.88
7.05% 1,765,033.40 Paso 6: Graficar resultados
10.20% 5,131,184.68
15.12% 2,412,025.38
Sales and Forecasts
Sales (Cases) Forecast Deseasonalized Forecast
30,000
 7.63% 655,075.74 Sales and Forecasts
10.10% 1,269,629.22
7.56% 769,341.88 Sales (Cases) Forecast Deseasonalized Forecast
18.91% 4,162,216.79 30,000
7.13% 729,185.62
25,000
1.75% 46,010.32
4.58% 196,868.18 20,000
0.66% 7,959.72
15,000
3.34% 243,679.69

Cases
1.95% 129,066.66 10,000
2.43% 285,101.66
5,000
3.32% 166,064.47
6.31% 527,483.98 -
3.20% 166,414.28 00 00 00 01 01 01 02 02 02 03 03 03 04 04 04 05 05 05 06 06 06 07 07 07 08
y 20 y 20 r 20 y 20 y 20 r 20 y 20 y 20 r 20 y 20 y 20 r 20 y 20 y 20 r 20 y 20 y 20 r 20 y 20 y 20 r 20 y 20 y 20 r 20 y 20 y
1.10% 21,051.13 ar a be ar a be ar a be ar a be ar a be ar a be ar a be ar a be ar a
a nu M em anu M em anu M em anu M em anu M em anu M em anu M em anu M em anu M e
0.80% 11,880.02 J pt J pt J pt J pt J pt J pt J pt J pt J pt
Se Se Se Se Se Se Se Se Se
1.38% 34,886.02
3.29% 193,264.43 Month - Year
5.90% 364,642.33
3.33% 242,384.77
4.62% 626,427.55
1.34% 74,494.84
3.04% 513,639.38
3.33% 218,135.22
0.23% 888.38
1.27% 32,724.85
1.29% 34,947.01
2.97% 178,793.53
2.47% 137,172.21
0.53% 5,290.65
9.85% 1,073,325.30
MAPE RMSE
4.13% 648.39

Error = Real - Pronóstico

s)

4 04 05 05 05 06 06 06 07 07 07 08 08
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
er ary ay ber ary ay ber ary ay ber ary ay
nu M em anu M em anu M em anu M
Ja pt J pt J pt J
Se Se Se

Year

tacionalidad.

lares, ordenarlos por año y por mes y elaborar el modelo de pronóstico.

 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Seasonal Index
0.872 0.881 0.792 0.877 0.911 0.894
0.932 0.878 0.813 0.818 0.849 0.857
0.919 0.924 0.852 0.902 0.917
0.910 0.905 0.884 0.925 0.926
0.947 0.959 0.823 0.942 0.947
0.948 0.924 0.914 0.926 0.941
0.876 0.828 0.932 0.903 0.879
0.683 0.697 0.729 0.686 0.734
0.971 0.980 1.004 0.982 0.962
1.129 1.121 1.092 1.129 1.094
1.377 1.452 1.346 1.339 1.341
1.499 1.720 1.579 1.541 1.517
12.009

7.03 + 81.11xT

ecasts
Deseasonalized Forecast
ecasts
Deseasonalized Forecast

4 05 05 05 06 06 06 07 07 07 08 08 08 09 09 09
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
y 2 ay 2 er 2 ry 2 ay 2 er 2 ry 2 ay 2 er 2 ry 2 ay 2 er 2 ry 2 ay 2 er 2
M mb nua M mb nua M mb nua M mb nua M mb
e a e a e a e a e
pt J pt J pt J pt J pt
Se Se Se Se Se

- Year
Normalized Seasonal Index
0.893
0.857
0.917
0.926
0.946
0.940
0.878
0.734
0.962
1.093
1.340
1.516
12.000