Intelligence Analysis Process

LEARNING OBJECTIVES
At the end of this lesson the cadet will be able to:

➢ Know and understand the Intelligence

Cycle
➢ Know and understand the Intelligence
Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
➢ Learn the steps in the Intelligence Analysis
Process
INTELLIGENCE CYCLE
• It is an organized process by which information is gathered,
assessed, and distributed in order to fulfill the goals of the
intelligence function-it is a method of performing analytic
activities and placing the analysis in a useable form.
• Process by which information is acquired, converted into
intelligence, and made available to policymakers
• Repetitive process used to produce intelligence from
information
• Process by which information is converted into intelligence and
made available to users (Source: US Dept Of Defense)
INTELLIGENCE CYCLE
SIX INTEGRAL STEPS OR PROCESS OR ELEMENTS
OF INTELLIGENCE CYCLE
REQUIREMENTS/MISSION
1. Collection
2. Evaluation
3. Collation
4. Analysis
5. Reporting
6. Dissemination
COLLECTION

The identification, location, and recording of

unanalyzed information, typically from an original
source and using both human and technological
means, for input into the intelligence cycle to
determine its usefulness in meeting a defined tactical
or strategic intelligence goal .
 PLANNING & DIRECTING THE INTEL
COLLECTION
• Determination of Intelligence Requirements
• Determination of Intelligence Priorities
• Determination of Intel Indicators
• Determination of Intel specific orders or
requests
• Determine the collection agencies
BASIC CONSIDERATION IN THE COLLECTION
EFFORT

• Gathering or obtaining good, clean, timely, and

accurate information is key to the collection effort;
• There is no such thing as a bad source, only bad
information; and
• Information equals intelligence, not the other way
around.
 Types of Sources

1. Open sources – 90 % are derived from these.

2. Non – open sources – 10 %, requires covert &

clandestine operations.
Collection is accomplished in Five ways
a. Routinized Input
b. Selected Access
c. Special Access
d. Casework Availability
e. Unsolicited Input
INFORMATION COLLECTION
1. Overt Methods - The analyst or investigator directly
accesses information with the expressed or implied
purpose of obtaining the information for use in a criminal
investigation. Sources include:
a. Internal Sources - those sources an analyst has
access to within the law enforcement system. (e.g.,
criminal histories, police reports, suspect interviews,
INTERPOL, etc) . .
b.External Sources - those sources an analyst
accesses outside of the law enforcement system
(e.g., tax rolls, phone records, newspapers, etc.)
INFORMATION COLLECTION
2. Covert Methods - Direct collection of information from an
individual, organization, or intelligence target through some
form of active or passive observation wherein the subject is
unaware that the information is being collected for an
intelligence investigation. Techniques include:
a. Active observation - covert technique interacts with the
target; the target's actions are frequently a reaction to
the stimulus or opportunity provided by the investigating
body

b. Passive observation - covert technique is non-reactive

in that there is no interaction with the target by
investigator/intelligence officer
 Active Observation
Examples:
a) Undercover investigator
b) Surreptitious inquiry to target (e.g., fake questionnaire or invitation)
c) Storefront or sting operation
d) Informants

Passive Observation
Examples:
b. Electronic surveillance
a. Physical surveillance
1. Phone/wire tap
1. Moving
2.Radio intercept
2.Fixed
3.Electronic eavesdropping
4.Remote sensing
EVALUATION
All information collected for the intelligence
cycle is reviewed for its quality with an assessment of the
validity and reliability of the information.

Reliability - should answer whether or not the source of

the information consistent and dependable

Validity - Does the information actually represent what

we believe it represents?
COLLATION
A review of collected and evaluated information
to determine its substantive applicability to a case or
problem at issue and placement of useful information
into a form or system which permits easy and rapid
access and retrieval.
PURPOSE OF COLLATION
a. Remove information that is:
1. Irrelevant
2. Incorrect
3. Useless to the investigation

b. Second Step: Create an orderly arrangement of the

collected materials to make comparisons of facts
and events easier (indexing)

c. Placing the information in a form for:

1.Systematic storage
2.Rapid retrieval
Analysis
Analysis is that activity whereby meaning, actual
or suggested, is derived through organizing and
systematically examining diverse information (See
Harris, 1976).
FIVE ELEMENTS IN THE ANALYSIS PROCESS:
1. Data Integration and Description

2. Logical Reasoning

3. Hypothesis(es) Development

4. Hypothesis Testing

5. Conclusion, Prediction, or Estimate

DATA INTEGRATION AND DESCRIPTION
1. Indexed information is accessed and organized in order
to:
a. Facilitate understanding
b. Emphasize investigation requirements
c. Identify new leads

2. An important technique for data integration is the use of

link diagrams (also called link analysis, link networks,
wire diagrams or analysis matrices)
DATA INTEGRATION AND DESCRIPTION

3) Link diagrams permit:

a. A systematic approach to data comparisons, and

b. A visual assessment of the relationship between
information elements

4) Link diagrams and association matrices show the relationship

between multiple variables of evidence collected during the
course of an investigation such as:
DATA INTEGRATION AND DESCRIPTION

a. Relations (business or social) between persons

b. Linking people to organizations
c. People to vehicles
d. Phone numbers called between persons
e. Flow of illicit commodities
f. Relation of people to known behaviors
DATA INTEGRATION AND DESCRIPTION

5) The matrices and diagrams should be viewed as important

tools for correlating intelligence information

a) The analyst must remember that the techniques are only

tools-there is a tendency to become focused on the process
rather than the outcome
b) As such, focusing on "models" or "rules" for developing
association matrices and diagrams should not overshadow
the intent of the process.
LOGICAL REASONING
1. The use of inductive logic to develop inferences about:

a. Criminal operations
b. Key individuals involved
c. Methods of operation
d. The extent of the criminal activity or influence

2. The analyst must use his/her reasoning abilities to infer a

cohesive meaning from specific items of information
collected
HYPOTHESIS(ES) DEVELOPMENT
1. Development of a tentative explanation or theory

2. Focuses further information collection activities to either

confirm or deny the hypothesis/es)

3. Analyst may develop multiple hypotheses (or scenarios)

for an investigation to:
a. Focus investigation in different areas
b. Explain different elements in a complex case
HYPOTHESIS TESTING

1. The application of further collected data to either:

a. Confirm or reject a hypothesis, or
b. Select among alternate hypotheses

2. This process should require robust levels of information

and evidence to:
a. Support case development in court (in the case of
tactical intelligence), or
b. Be sufficiently sound to make management decisions
for resource allocation and planning (in the case of
strategic intelligence)
CONCLUSION, PREDICTION, OR ESTIMATE

1. Conclusion - a definitive statement about a suspect, action,

or state of nature
2. Prediction - Projection of future criminal actions or changes
in the nature of crime trends based on analysis of
intelligence information
3. Estimate - Strategic projections on the economic, human,
and/or quantitative criminal impact of the crime or issue
subject to analysis.
CONCLUSION, PREDICTION, OR ESTIMATE

4. The analysis process is a complex exercise requiring a significant

amount of creativity and application of technique

a. While it has been presented in a prescriptive manner, do not be

misled
b. It is a process that can be frustrating and difficult to apply when
"some of the pieces are missing" in the evidentiary trail
c. When this occurs, the analyst must go back to the beginning of the
intelligence cycle and collect further information to be processed
d. Such information would be "targeted" to fill the information voids
REPORTING

The process of taking the analyzed information and

placing it in the proper form for the most effective
consumption of that information as dependent on the type
of intelligence.
TYPES OF REPORTS
a. Oral Tactical Response

b. Written Tactical Response

c. Comprehensive Case Report

d. Strategic Reports

e. Periodic Reports
DISSEMINATION
This is the process of effectively distributing
analyzed intelligence information in the most appropriate
format to those in need of the information to facilitate their
accomplishment of organizational goals.
Dissemination will depend on:
a. The nature of the information

b. Nature of the crime(s) involved

c. Relevant internal needs (e.g., investigators, admlnistrators,

planners)

d. Relevant external needs

CONCLUSIONS, PREDICTIONS, AND ESTIMATES
Conclusion - a definitive statement about a suspect, action,
or state of nature

Prediction - Projection of future criminal actions or changes

in the nature of crime trends based on analysis of
intelligence information

Estimate - Strategic projections on the economic, human,

and/or quantitative criminal impact of the crime or issue
subject to analysis.
SUMMARY OBSERVATIONS ON THE INTELLIGENCE CYCLE
A. The intelligence cycle is tautological-circular, systemic, on-going through
each step from collection through dissemination;

B. The intelligence cycle does not have a defined point of initiation or

termination-it should be viewed as continuous rather than finite

C. The tactical and strategic conclusions of the intelligence cycle need to be

evaluated in light of new information brought into the cycle

D. The intelligence cycle as a procedure needs to be regularly assessed to

make sure it is working:
Intelligence Preparation of the
Battlefield (IPB)
IPB
- A systematic continuous process of analyzing the
threat and the environment
- Supports staff estimates and the Military Decision
Making Process (MDMP)
 How To Do IPB?

1. Identify significant characteristics of the environment

a. Threat or adversary
b. Significant characteristic of the Terrain
c. Climate and Weather
d. Civil Considerations
 How To Do IPB?

2. Identify the limits of the Command’s Area Of Operations

(AOR)
❖ Where the Commander is Given Authority and Responsibility
to Conduct Military Operations
❖ Assigned by Higher Unit based on TM-TET-C
Time/Mission/Terrain/Enemy/Troops/ Civil Considerations
❖ Defined by Boundaries
❖ Of sufficient Size to Allow Completion of Mission
 How To Do IPB?
3. Establish the limits of the Area of Influence and the Area
of Interest

❖ Area of Influence (AI)

• A geographic area wherein a commander is directly
capable of influencing operations by maneuver or fire support
systems normally under the commander’s command and
control
 How To Do IPB?
4. Identify the amount of detail required and feasible within
the time available
- The time available for completion of the IPB process
may not permit the luxury of conducting each step in detail.
Overcoming time limitations requires a focus on the parts of
IPB that are most important to the commander in planning and
executing his mission.
- Identifying the amount of detail required avoids time
wasted on developing more detail than necessary in each step
of the process.
 How To Do IPB?

5. Evaluate existing data bases and identify intelligence

gaps
- Not all the intelligence and information required to
evaluate the effects of each characteristic of the battlefield
and each threat force will be in the current data base.
- Identifying the gaps early allows you to initiate action
to collect the intelligence required to fill them.
 How To Do IPB?
6. Collect the required intelligence and materials
- Initiate collection or requests for intelligence to fill
intelligence gaps to the level of detail required to conduct IPB.
Include collection against all identified significant characteristics
of the battlefield, not just threat forces, in priority order.
 CCIR
COMMANDER’S CRITICAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS

PIR WHAT I MUST KNOW ABOUT THE THREAT

Priority Intelligence Requirements

FFIR WHAT I MUST KNOW ABOUT MY FORCES

Friendly Forces Information Requirements
EEFI WHAT I MUST CONCEAL FROM THE THREAT
Essential Elements of Friendly Information
END OF PRESENTATION