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Аудиториски вежби 2
Аудиториски вежби 2
Аудиториски вежби 2
( P(B)>0)
P( AB)
P ( A | B)
P( B)
( P( )>0)
P( AB)
P( B | A)
P( A)
P ( AB ) P ( A) P ( B | A) P ( B ) P ( A | B )
P( A1 A2 ... An ) P( A1 ) P( A2 | A1 ) P( A3 | A2 A1 )...P( An | An 1 ... A1 )
A B P ( AB ) P ( A) P ( B )
, B ,
A ,A B
1, 2, ..., n
k , k=2,3, ...n, :
1. S={1,2,…,20} .
, 3.
: 3
–
={2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20}
B={3,6,9,12,15,18}
AB={6,12,18}
P(A|B)=?
P( AB) 3 1
P( A | B)
P( B) 6 2
2.
2. 8 10 . (
) .
.
Ai i , i=1,2
P(A1A2)=?
8 7
P ( A1 A2 ) P ( A1 ) P ( A2 | A1 ) 0.183
18 17
3. 1
0.92 .
1
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.
2
P( F ) P( A B) P( A) P( B) (0.92) 0.8464
F,
0.8464.
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. , DE
D . ,
: .
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0.9936.
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, i .
, P ( Ai ) P( A) 0.3 , i=1,2,…
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C A1 A2 A3 A4 P( B) P ( A1 ) P ( A2 ) P ( A3 ) P ( A4 ) 0 .7 3 0 .3 0.1029
5. 0.01,
,
0.03 . 90%
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A A A( B B ) AB AB
P( A) P( AB) P( AB )
P( A | B) 0.01
P( A | B ) 0.03
90
P( B) 0.9
100
P( B ) 1 0.9 0.1
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P(A|B)=?
P(Ck)=1/3, C , =1,2,3,4
:
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P( B) ( ) 4 6( ) 2 ( ) 2 ( ) 4
3 3 3 3 81 81 81 81
1 4 1 2 2 2 13
P ( AB ) ( ) 3( ) ( )
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13
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P( A | B)
P( B) 41 41
81
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: P(A)=0.9
: P(B)=0.8
P ( AB ) 0.75 P ( A) P ( B ) .
P( AB) 0.75
P( B | A) 0.8333
P( A) 0.9
P( AB) 0.75
P( A | B) 0.9375
P( B) 0.8
P( A | B) P ( A), P ( B | A) P( B)
.
–
n
Hi F, i=1,…,n, HiHj= , i j Hi .
i 1
F :
n
P( B) P( H i ) P( B | H i )
i 1
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:
P( H j ) P ( B | H j )
P( H j | B) n
P ( H i ) P( B | H i )
i 1
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) ,
.
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) ,
.
) :
Hi : i i=1,2
H1+H2= H1H2=
1
P( H 1 ) P( H 2 )
2
–
3
P( A | H 1 )
5
3
P( A | H 2 )
7
2
1 3 3 18
P ( A) P( H i ) P( A | H i ) ( )
i 1 2 5 7 35
P( H 1 ) P( A | H 1 ) 7
P ( H 1 | A)
P ( A) 12
2. 4 .
0.80,
(. . ) 0.20.
, 0.25.
,
?
H1 :
H2 :
P ( H 1 | A) ?
P( H 1 ) P( A | H 1 ) 0 .8 1
P ( H 1 | A) 0.941
P( H 1 ) P( A | H 1 ) P( H 2 ) P( A | H 2 ) 0.8 1 0.2 0.25
–
3. On line 4 .
:
1 0.4 0.998
2 0.3 0.999
3 0.1 0.997
4 0.2 0.992
) ?
) ,
?
Hi – i P(H1)=0.4 , P(H2)=0.3
– P( |H1)=0.998 , P(A|H2)=0.999
a) P(A)=?
4
P( A) P( H i ) P( A | H i ) 0.4 0.998 0.3 0.999 0.1 0.997 0.2 0.992 0.997
i 1
P H1 , A P A | H 1 P( H 1 ) 0.002 0.4
) P H1 | A 0.267
PA PA 0.003
–
n n
.
( ) .
P(A)=p, Pn(k) n
, A k :
n k nk
Pn (k ) p q ,k 0,1,..., n
k
q=1 p.
1. , ?
1
P ( A)
6
, n=8, 3 , k=3.
3 5
8 1 5
P8 (3) 0.10047
3 6 6
2. ,
?
i: i , i=1,2
–
B:
1 2 B=A1A2
1
p P( B) P ( A1 ) P ( A2 )
4
B B
.
0 3
3 1 3 27 37
P3 (k 1) 1 P3 (0) 1 1
0 4 4 64 64
3. ,
4 6 ?
1
p P( A)
2
10
6 10 10 10 1
P10 (4 k 6) P10 (k ) 0.45117
k 4 4 5 6 2
4. 0.3.
, 0.95,
?
p P ( A) 0 .7
–
, . .
Pn (k 1) 0.95
1 Pn (0) 0.95
n
0.3 n 0.05
0
n ln 0.3 ln 0.05
ln 0.05
n 2.49
ln 0.3
n 3.
5. .
. , ,
. ,
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Hi : i , i=0,1,2,3
3
1
P( H i ) 1 P( H i ) ,i 0,1,2,3
i 0 4
B:
.
–
P( B | H 0 ) 0
3 1
4 1 2 8
P( B | H 1 )
1 3 3 81
3 1
4 2 1 32
P( B | H 2 )
1 3 3 81
P( B | H 3 ) 0
3
1 8 1 32 10
P( B) P( H i ) P( B | H i )
i 0 4 81 4 81 81
P( B | H i ), i 0,1,2,3
P( H i ) P( B | H i )
P( H i | B) ,i 0,1,2,3
P( B)
P( H 0 | B) 0
1 8
4 81 1
P( H 1 | B)
10 5
81
1 32
4 81 4
P( H 2 | B)
10 5
81
P( H 3 | B) 0
P( H 2 | B) ,
2 1 .