684 JOURNAL OF MODERN POWER SYSTEMS AND CLEAN ENERGY, VOL. 9, NO.
3, May 2021
Annual Energy Production Estimation for
Variable-speed Wind Turbine at High-altitude Site
Dongran Song, Songyue Zheng, Sheng Yang, Jian Yang, Mi Dong, Mei Su, and Young Hoon Joo
Abstract—
—This letter presents a systematic approach to esti‐
mate the annual energy production (AEP) of variable-speed
wind turbines erected at high-altitude sites. Compared with the
existing empirical-model based approaches, the proposed ap‐
proach models the influence of the air density on the power pro‐
duction while employing the theoretical power curve. Conse‐
quently, the proposed approach provides a precise estimation of
AEP, which can serve as a foundation of the optimum turbine-
site matching design at different-altitude sites.
Index Terms— —Variable-speed wind turbine, annual energy
production, high-altitude site, turbine-site matching.
I. INTRODUCTION
M ANY great efforts have been made towards the site-
matching design for wind turbines (WTs) in recent
years [1]. In this context, different performance indexes have
been proposed, including annual energy production (AEP),
capacity factor, WT performance index, cost of energy, annu‐
al net profit and so on [2].
As the basic indicator in evaluating the turbine perfor‐
mance, the AEP is served as the foundation of the optimum
turbine-site matching design. The standard approach of esti‐
mating the AEP is to multiply the averaged power output
with the probability density function of the wind speed at
the wind site [3]. Therefore, the empirical power curve mod‐
els, formulated as the functions of the cut-in, rated, and cut-
out wind speeds and the rated power of turbine, have been
proposed and widely used. They have shown convenience in
application due to the independence of the turbine-specific
parameters [4]. However, it is commonly observed that the
Manuscript received: April 10, 2019; accepted: March 5, 2020. Date of Cross‐
Check: March 5, 2020. Date of online publication: July 22, 2020.
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of Chi‐
na (No. 61803393), the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province (No.
2020JJ4751), and the Basic Science Research Program through the National Re‐
search Foundation (NRF) of Korea funded by the Ministry of Education (No.
NRF-2016R1A6A1A03013567).
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribu‐
tion 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
D. Song, S. Zheng, J. Yang, M. Dong, and M. Su are with the School of Au‐
tomation, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China (e-mail: songdon‐
gran@csu. edu. cn; zhengsongyue@csu. edu. cn; jian. yang@csu. edu. cn; mi.
dong@csu.edu.cn; sumeicsu@mail.csu.edu.cn).
S. Yang (corresponding author) is with the School of Energy Science and En‐
gineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China (e-mail: ceshy‐
ang@csu.edu.cn).
Y. H. Joo is with the School of IT Information and Control Engineering, Kun‐
san National University, Kunsan 573701, Korea (e-mail: yhjoo@kunsan.ac.kr).
DOI: 10.35833/MPCE.2019.000240
power production of a variable-speed WT is affected by its
operation, which relies on the geographical condition.
To be specific, for a certain WT, its rated wind speed is
determined by the air density of the wind site, while the lat‐
ter relies on the site altitude. Accordingly, the site altitude
will unavoidably affect the power production of turbine, but
this effect is not covered by the empirical power-curve mod‐
els. Meanwhile, the power coefficient at the point of the rat‐
ed wind speed and the upper wind speed that offers the max‐
imum power coefficient may change due to the decreased air
density. Hence, the AEP estimation based on the empirical
power-curve models may be imprecise, especially for the
WT erected at the high-altitude site with a low air density.
To improve the AEP estimation of the variable-speed WT
at the high-altitude site, this letter explores the influence of
the air density on the power output. Based on the theoretical
model of the power output, three key parameters, including
the rated wind speed, the corresponding power coefficient,
and the upper wind speed offering the maximum power coef‐
ficient, are derived and analyzed. It is revealed that these
three parameters are affected by the site altitude. Taking into
account the three parameters in the power curve modelling,
the proposed approach is capable of precisely estimating the
AEP, and thus sets up a foundation of the turbine-site match‐
ing design at different-altitude sites.
II. PROPOSED AEP ESTIMATION OF VARIABLE-SPEED WTS
AT HIGH-ALTITUDE SITES
A. Influence of Site Altitude on Power Production of
Variable-speed WTs
The operation of variable-speed WT relies on the wind
speed and can be divided into three modes: idle, partial pow‐
er, and rated power. Accordingly, its power output is [2]:
ìP f (v) v i £ v £ v r
ï
P(v) = íP r vr < v £ vo (1)
ï
î0 v < v i or v o < v
where v is the wind speed; v i, v r, and v o are the cut-in, rated,
and cut-out wind speeds, respectively; and P f (v) and P r are
the partial power and rated power, respectively.
The partial power P f (v) is calculated by:
P f (v) = 0.5ηρπR2 C p (λ)v 3 (2)
where η is the power generation efficiency; ρ and R are the
air density and the rotor radius, respectively; C p (λ) is the
SONG et al.: ANNUAL ENERGY PRODUCTION ESTIMATION FOR VARIABLE-SPEED WIND TURBINE AT HIGH-ALTITUDE SITE 685

power coefficient, which is a nonlinear function of the tip
speed ratio (TSR) λ when the WT operates below the rated
wind speed; and λ = ωR/v, where ω is the rotor speed.
Similarly, the rated power is calculated by:
P r = 0.5ηρπR2 C pr v 3r (3)
where C pr is the power coefficient at the rated wind speed.
As shown in (1), the power output of the WT relies large‐
ly on the rated wind speed, and the latter can be obtained by:
v r = (2P r /(ηρπR2 C pr ))1/3 (4)
Based on (4), the rated wind speed will be different for
the same WT when the air density varies. According to the
International Standard Atmosphere (ISO) [5], the air density
is relevant to the site altitude h alt and can be estimated by:
ρ = 1.225(1- 0.0065h alt /288.15)4.2561
Using (5), the air density at the sites with different alti‐
Accordingly, v u can be calculated by:
v u = ω u R/λ opt = min(ω r  T gr /K )R/λ opt (9)
From (9), when the rated value of rotor speed is lower
than the limit imposed by the rated generator torque, the up‐
per rotor speed is the rated value, and the upper wind speed
is a constant (ω r R/λ opt). Otherwise, the upper rotor speed is
the one depending on the generator torque, and the upper
wind speed is T gr /K R/λ opt, which goes up due to the de‐
creased optimal torque gain.
In the region between v u and v r, the rotor speed is main‐
tained at the rated value ω r or follows the wind speed to
vary between T gr /K and ω r. Therefore, regarding λ = ωR/v,
C p (λ) is solely determined by the wind speed. With the
(5) curve fitting, it can be fitted as:
C p (λ) = C pmax∑a i v i
n

tudes is obtained and shown in Table I. v Î[v u v r ] (10)

i=0
TABLE I where a i (i = 01...n) is the fitting parameters; and n is the
AIR DENSITY AT DIFFERENT ALTITUDES
order of the polynomial.
Using (10), the power coefficient C pr at the rated wind
h alt (m) ρ (kg/m3) h alt (m) ρ (kg/m3)
speed v r can be easily calculated as:
0 1.225 2000 1.006
C pr = C pmax∑a i v ir
n
1000 1.112 3000 0.909 (11)
i=0

Based on (4), (9) and (11), the three key parameters v r, v u,

It is obvious that there is a low air density for a high-alti‐ and C pr can be calculated. Then, by substituting (3), (7), (10)
tude site. Based on (4) and (5), two discussions can be made: and (11) into (1), the power curve modelling of a variable-
1) For the high-altitude site with decreasing air density,
speed WT on the high-altitude site can be expressed as:
the rated wind speed is increased.
2) Following the increasing v r, the power coefficient C pr ì0 v < vi
ï
goes down, which further increases v r. ïP r (C pmax /C pr )(v/v r ) 3
vi £ v < vu
Therefore, the power production of turbine will be notice‐ ï
P(v) = íP r (C pmax /C pr )(v/v r )3∑a i v i v u £ v < v r
ï n

ably affected by the site altitude, and this effect should be (12)
thoroughly considered in estimating the AEP of the WT at ï i=0
ïP vr £ v £ vo
the high-altitude site. ï r
ï0 vo < v
B. Power Curve Modelling of Variable-speed WTs î
Considering Increased Rated Wind Speed Based on (12), the power output of a WT can be estimat‐
To consider the influence of the increased rated wind ed in a precise way. To achieve that, some knowledge about
speed on the power production, (2) is reformulated as: the geography of the WT and site is required, including the

{
ηρπR2 C pmax v 3 /2 v i £ v £ v u
P f (v) = (6)
ηρπR2 C p (λ)v 3 /2 v u < v £ v r
where v u is the upper wind speed, at which C p (λ) is main‐
tained at its maximum C pmax. C pmax is determined by the
blade aerodynamics and can be obtained from the WT manu‐
facturer.
The upper wind speed v u relies on the upper rotor speed
ω u constrained by the hardware limitation of the WT. For a
variable-speed WT, the rated rotor speed and the rated gener‐
fitting parameters of the power coefficient, the rated power,
and the site altitude.
C. AEP Estimation for Variable-speed WTs at High-altitude
Sites
After obtaining the power curve of the WT, its energy pro‐
duction during one year can be estimated by:
AEP = tP m (13)
where t = 8760 hour, as there are 8760 hours in a year. The
mean power production P m during one hour is calculated by:

∫ P(v) f (v)dv
ator torque are the two limitations. Under these two limita‐ ¥
tions, ω u can be calculated by: Pm = (14)
0
ω u = min(ω r  T gr /K ) (7) where f (v) is the Weibull distribution, which is a function of
K = 0.5ρπR C pmax /(Nλ )
5 3
(8) the wind speed expressed as [7]:
opt
f (v) = (k/c)(v/c)k - 1 exp(-(v/c)k ) (15)
where T gr is the rated generator torque; λ opt is the optimal
TSR determined by the blade aerodynamics; K is the opti‐ where c and k are the scale parameter and the shape parame‐
mal torque gain [6]; and N is the gearbox ratio. ter, respectively.
686 JOURNAL OF MODERN POWER SYSTEMS AND CLEAN ENERGY, VOL. 9, NO. 3, May 2021

D. Implementation of Proposed Approach level altitude, there are reduced ratios of the AEP about
Based on above preparations, the proposed AEP estima‐ 6.7%, 12.9 %, and 19.6 % for the other three high altitudes,
tion can be implemented and its flowchart is shown in Fig. 1. respectively. Therefore, these results agree with the fact that
the high altitude of the site has a significant effect on the
Collect site parameters: Collect turbine parameters: power output of the WT, and this effect has been carefully
c, k, halt R, Cp max, λopt, ai, Pr, Tgr, ωr
included in the proposed AEP estimation model.
Calculate vr, vu, Cpr using
Calculate ρ using (5) TABLE III
(4), (9) and (11)
THREE KEY PARAMETERS VERSUS SITE ALTITUDE
Calculate Weibull
Calculate P(v) using (12) h alt (m) v u (m/s) v r (m/s) C pr
distribution using (15)
0 7.52 11.0 0.4235

Calculate Pm using (14) 1000 7.52 11.6 0.3982

2000 7.52 12.4 0.3610
Estimate AEP using (13) 3000 7.52 13.6 0.3028
Fig. 1. Flowchart of proposed AEP estimation.
4600

III. SAMPLE RESULTS

AEP (MWh)
4200
The presented AEP estimation is applied to an industrial
variable-speed WT [8], [9], of which the relevant parameters
3800
are summarized in Table II. Simulation and experimental re‐
sults are presented and discussed.
3400
TABLE II 0 1000 2000 3000
PARAMETERS OF STUDIED WT Altitude (m)
Fig. 2. AEP estimation with proposed model at different altitudes.
Symbol Value Symbol Value
Pr 1.5 MW vo 25 m/s
Figure 3 shows the comparison results between the pro‐
R 38.55 m n 4
posed model and four empirical power-curve models, includ‐
ωr 1.824 rad/s a0 -2.84
ing the linear, quadratic, cubic, and general models.
T gr 8185.1 N × m a1 1.18116 s/m
λ opt 8.5 a2 -0.1231 (s/m)2 40
-3
C p max 0.483 a3 5.043×10 (s/m) 3
30
η -7.348×10-5 (s/m)4
Above proposed model (%)

0.93 a4
20 Linear model
vi 3 m/s N 100.48 General model
Quadratic model
10 Cubic model
A. Simulation Results
0
In the simulation, Weibull distribution parameters are set
to the wind condition of six representative wind sites in Chi‐ -10
na [10]. k is set to be 1.9, and c is set to be 7.5 m/s. -20
To check the influence of the site altitude on the operation
of the WT, the three key parameters are calculated using (4), -30
0 1000 2000 3000
(9) and (11) and their values are presented in Table III. Altitude (m)
When the altitude halt varies from 0 m to 3000 m, the rated Fig. 3. AEP comparison among different estimation models.
wind speed is quickly increased from 11.0 m/s to 13.6 m/s,
while the power coefficient at the rated wind speed is de‐
creased from 0.4235 to 0.3028. The upper wind speed re‐ By taking the proposed results as the references, it is ob‐
mains unchanged due to the rated rotor speed lower than the tained that the linear model constantly overestimates the
limit imposed by the rated generator torque. These results AEP by 27%, and the cubic model underestimates the AEP
show that the influence of the site altitude on the turbine op‐ in a range between 6.2% and 25.2% with the largest discrep‐
eration is significant, and confirm the two discussions in Sec‐ ancy at the highest altitude. By comparison, the general mod‐
tion II-A. el presents less deviations that are decreased from 8.5% to
Figure 2 shows the AEP estimation results with the pro‐ -2.5% for the increasing altitudes, and the quadratic model
posed approach. With the proposed model, the estimated presents similar but the least deviations. Therefore, the result
AEP is 4555.5 MWh, 4270.2 MWh, 3967.7 MWh, and provided by the quadratic models is closest to that of the
3661.2 MWh for the altitude of 0 m, 1000 m, 2000 m, and proposed model, and these observations are consistent to the
3000 m, respectively. Compared with the result at the sea- investigation made in [4] and justify the proposed model.
SONG et al.: ANNUAL ENERGY PRODUCTION ESTIMATION FOR VARIABLE-SPEED WIND TURBINE AT HIGH-ALTITUDE SITE
B. Experimental Results
The studied WT is located in a wind farm on Yunnan-
Kweichow Plateau, China, and the site altitude is about 2800
m. The Weibull distribution parameters k and c are 1.95 and
9.03 m/s, respectively. The data collected by the supervisory
control and data acquisition (SCADA) system is compared
with the results from the five estimation models.
Figure 4 shows the comparison results between the SCA‐
DA data and the five power-curve models. By checking the
real power curve, it is seen that the rated wind speed is
around 13.2 m/s, which is consistent with the theoretical re‐
sult. Meanwhile, it is obvious that the power curve estimated
by the proposed model fits the real one much better than the
other four models. Based on these results, the AEP is esti‐
mated with the proposed, linear, quadratic, cubic, and gener‐
al models, and the result is 5221.4 MWh, 6153.8 MWh,
5031.9 MWh, 4286.2 MWh, and 5081.3 MWh, respectively.
By comparison to the actual AEP averaged during the last
five years, which is 5310.5 MWh, the estimation error is
-1.68%, 15.88%, -5.25%, -19.29%, and -4.32%, respective‐
ly. The above results are consistent with the simulation re‐
sults, and further confirm the effectiveness and preciseness
of the proposed estimation model in the real wind farm.
1600
1400
Electrical power (kW)
1200
1000
SCADA data
800 Linear model
600 Quadratic model
Cubic model
400 General model
Proposed model
200
0 5 10 13.2 15 20 25
Wind speed (m/s)
Fig. 4. Experimental curves of electrical power versus wind speed in dif‐
ferent estimation models.
IV. CONCLUSION
This letter presents an AEP estimation approach for the
variable-speed WTs at high-altitude sites. The influence of
the low air density at high-altitude sites is considered in the
presented power curve model, so that a precise AEP estima‐
tion is achieved. Based on the proposed model, other perfor‐
mance indexes can be evaluated, and the turbine-site match‐
ing design can be applied for WTs at different-altitude sites.
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Dongran Song received the Ph. D. degree from the School of Information
Science and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, China, in
2016, where he has been an Associate Professor since 2018. He was a Se‐
nior Engineer with China Ming Yang Wind Power Group, Zhongshan, from
2009 to 2017, where he took part in designing 1.5 MW-6.0 MW series wind
turbines. His research interests include designs, controls and optimizations
for wind turbines, power electronics and renewable energy generation sys‐
tem.
Songyue Zheng received the B.S. degree at the School of Information Sci‐
ence and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, China, in 2017.
He is currently working toward the master degree at Central South Universi‐
ty. His research interests include advance control algorithms and designs for
wind turbines.
Sheng Yang received the Ph. D. degree from the School of Chemistry and
Chemical Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou,
China, in 2017. Since 2018, he has been an Associate Professor at the
School of Energy Science and Engineering, Central South University, Shang‐
sha, China. His research interests include energy systems and engineering.
Jian Yang received the Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering from the Uni‐
versity of Central Florida, Orlando, USA, in 2008. He was a Senior Electri‐
cal Engineer with Delta Tau Data Systems, Inc., Los Angeles, USA from
2007 to 2010. Since 2011, he has been a Professor at Central South Univer‐
sity, Changsha, China. His research interests include motion control, power
electronics and its applications in wind energy generation systems, and pho‐
tovoltaic systems.
Mi Dong received the Ph. D. degree at the School of Information Science
and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, China, in 2007,
where she has been a Professor since 2006. Her research interests include
control application, solar photovoltaic power generation system, and power
grid power quality.
Mei Su received the Ph.D. degree at the School of Information Science and
Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, China, in 2005, where she
has been a Professor since 2006. Her research interests include matrix con‐
verter, adjustable speed drives, and wind energy conversion system.
Young Hoon Joo received the Ph. D. degree in electrical engineering from
Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, in 1995. He was with the University of
Houston, Houston, USA, from 1998 to 1999, as a Visiting Professor. He
served as the President of Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems in 2009,
and Editor-in-Chief of International Journal of Control, Automation, and
Systems in 2014-2017. He is a Professor at the School of IT Information
and Control Engineering, Kunsan National University, Kunsan, Korea, and
Director of Research Center for Wind Energy System since 2016. He has
been the President of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers since
2019. His research interests include intelligent control theory and advance
control algorithms for wind power generation system.