Climate Change and Impact

Dr. Amit Sharma

Dept. of Civil and Infrastructure Engineering
Indian Institute of Technology Jodhpur
Email: amit.sharma@iitj.ac.in 1
Planned contents (8 sections)
• Introduction to Climate and Climate Change: Evolution of Earth’s
climate: history, Instrumental and paleoclimatic record, Climate
Change: Definition, Components of climate system, Global energy
balance, GHGs and Greenhouse effect
• Radiative Energy Transfer: Radiation laws, Radiation Processes,
Absorption and Scattering by Gases and Particles, Solar Zenith
Angle and Aerosol Optical Depth, Radiative Transfer Equation
• Convection and Atmospheric Circulation: Dry and moist
convection, Atmospheric convection and types, Scales of motion,
Energy and Momentum Transport.
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• Oceanic Circulation: Physical characteristics of ocean, Energy
transport mechanism: Wind driven circulation theories, and
thermohaline circulation
• Climate sensitivity and feedback mechanisms: Equilibrium
Climate sensitivity, Transient Climate Response, Feedback:
Concept, Fast and slow feedback mechanisms/Processes, Climate
sensitivity estimates.
• Climate Variability: Buffering atmospheric temperature changes,
Atmosphere-ocean coupling: El Nino and Southern Oscillations.
• Climate modeling: One layer energy balance model, 1D EBM,
Global Circulation Model, difference between Weather forecast
models and GCMs. 3
• Climate Change Impacts and future projections: Sea level rise,
Ecosystem and biodiversity, Shifting water resources,
Agricultural impacts, severe weather impacts and Human
health; Impact assessment of GHGs on global temperature,
rainfall and drought patterns. (for presentations)

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Text Books
1. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics- From Air Pollution to Climate
Change, J. H. Seinfeld and S. N. Pandis, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., Third
Edition, 2013.
2. Fundamentals of Atmospheric modeling, Mark Jacobson, Cambridge
University Press, Second Edition, 2005.
3. Air Pollution and Global Warming: History, Science and Solutions, Mark
Jacobson, Cambridge University Press, Second Edition, 2012.
4. Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate Dynamics, John Marshall and R. Alan
Plumb, Elsevier Academic Press, 2008.

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 Marks distribution
• 30% - 2 Minors each of 15% weightage
• 30% - Class presentation + Assignments
• 40% - Endsem

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Introduction to Climate
and Climate Change

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Layers of the earth's atmosphere

Tropopause
(Acts like a lid to most
weather phenomena)

https://scied.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/images/large_image_for_image_content/atmosphere_layers_diagram_720x440.jpg
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Sprites
Electrical discharges
taking place high in
Earth's atmosphere,
above large thunderstorms

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/paul-smith-lightning-sprite.jpg?w=944

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xp-8xp_3hqU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGPQ5kzJ9Tg 9
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 12
Source - https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width_feature/public/thumbnails/image/tle-tgf-sketch-uk.jpg
Cirrus clouds (curly)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/gallery/metofficeg
ovuk/hero-images/weather/cloud/cirrus-hooks.jpg

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2e/CirrusField-color.jpg/1200px-CirrusField-color.jpg
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Polar stratospheric clouds - PSCs

https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/images/161102main_image_feature_680_ys_full.jpg

https://www.coolantarctica.com/gallery/scenic/nacreous12.jpg

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Noctilucent clouds (Shining at night)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/gallery/metofficegovuk/hero-images/weather/cloud/noctilucent-
cloud.jpg

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3f/Helkivad_%C3%B6%C3%B6pilved_Kures
oo_kohal.jpg/1200px-Helkivad_%C3%B6%C3%B6pilved_Kuresoo_kohal.jpg
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Climate and Weather

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Climate
• Not same as Weather which is the state/condition of the
atmosphere at a place during a short period of time (e.g.
Temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind, clouds
etc.)
• Weather is for a particular location/region and can change
within a short duration of time
• Climate is the state/condition of the atmosphere over
many years
• Climate is long-term average weather (statistically averaged
over many years to smooth out short term variability) and
can be for a region/ entire globe. 17
Hey, how is the
weather there?
Well, it’s raining
cats and dogs now

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But, how is the climate
usually around this time? It’s mostly supposed to
be hot and dry during
this time of the year

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Lesson: Weather is what is the actual condition
of the atmosphere at a particular time whereas
climate is the condition of the atmosphere you
expect based on past experiences (by averaging
weather data for past many years). Climate is
what you expect and weather is what you get

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Climate system
• Climate results from interaction of five major components
(components of climate system): Atmosphere, Hydrosphere,
Cryosphere, Lithosphere and Biosphere.

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Climate system
• Climate results from interaction of five major components
(components of climate system): Atmosphere, Hydrosphere,
Cryosphere, Lithosphere and Biosphere.
• Atmosphere – Air; Hydrosphere – Water (both surface and
groundwater); Cryosphere – Ice (frozen hydrosphere);
Lithosphere (outer part of earth; crust and upper mantle);
Biosphere(life on the planet)

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Climate system
• Climate results from interaction of five major components
(components of climate system): Atmosphere, Hydrosphere,
Cryosphere, Lithosphere and Biosphere.
• Atmosphere – Air; Hydrosphere – Water (both surface and
groundwater); Cryosphere – Ice (frozen hydrosphere);
Lithosphere (outer part of earth; crust and upper mantle);
Biosphere(life on the planet)
• Climate system is a complex system; perturbation in one
component can have impact on others. E.g. - Increasing CO2
in the atmosphere will have impact on all five components 23
Components of climate system

Source - https://worldoceanreview.com/en/files/2010/10/k1_kompo_klimasystem_e_en.jpg 24
Climate Change
• Long-term change in the average weather patterns (e.g.
average temperature, average precipitation etc)
• Climate is always changing
• Evidences suggest that Arctic had been sea-ice free and sea
levels had been higher in the past (Guarino et al., 2020)
• Solar variation, change in ocean currents, volcanic eruptions
are some of the possible contributors to natural climate
change

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Climate Change
• A recent research study (Klages et al., 2020) reported that
around 140 million years ago (mid-Cretaceous period)
atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were around
1,000 parts per million by volume (current levels around
410 ppmv)
• Study reported that the global sea level was up to 170 m
higher than at present

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Paleoclimate

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Source –Klages et al., 2020
Historic changes in Earth’s temperature
The past 140 years

• So why worry when there

has been warmer period
on earth before and life
still flourished that time?
• It is not the change but
the rate of change in
climate that concern us
Figure. Time series of variation in Earth’s surface annual
mean temperature from the 1961-1990 reference period
average. Source – IPCC (2001)
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Historic changes in Earth’s temperature
The past 1000 years

• Easy to adapt to slow

changes (timescale of
thousand years or more)
but not to relatively fast
changes (timescale of
decades)
• This graph also known as
“hockey stick” graph
Figure. Time series of variation in Earth’s surface annual
mean temperature from the 1961-1990 reference period
average. Source – IPCC (2001)
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Historic changes in Earth’s temperature

Tree ring analysis

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2540/tree-rings-provide-snapshots-of-earths-past-climate/ 30
Historic changes in Earth’s temperature

Tree ring analysis

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2540/tree-rings-provide-snapshots-of-earths-past-climate/ 31
Historic changes in Earth’s temperature

Tree ring analysis

Increment Borer

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Historic changes in Earth’s temperature

Tree ring analysis

Increment Borer

https://www.nsf.gov/news/mmg/media/images/PF3193_0792_h.jpg 33
Historic changes in Earth’s temperature

Methuselah Tree
~5000 years old

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Historic changes in Earth’s temperature

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2616/core-questions-an-introduction-to-ice-cores/

Ice core analysis

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Historic changes in Earth’s temperature

Ice core analysis

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2616/core-questions-an-introduction-to-ice-cores/

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Historic changes in Earth’s temperature

Ice core analysis

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2616/core-questions-an-introduction-to-ice-cores/

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Historic changes in Earth’s temperature
The past 1000 years

• Easy to adapt to slow

changes (timescale of
thousand years or more)
but not to relatively fast
changes (timescale of
decades)
• This graph also known as
“hockey stick” graph
Figure. Time series of variation in Earth’s surface annual
mean temperature from the 1961-1990 reference period
average. Source – IPCC (2001)
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What is causing such rapid changes??

Before that let’s discuss global energy balance

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Source of energy: The Sun
Sun Axis

1370 W/m2

Earth

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Source of energy: The Sun

Source – Taken from Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate Dynamics by Marshall and Plumb, 2008

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Source of energy: The Sun
Sun Axis

1370 W/m2

Earth

1370 × π𝑟 2 = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑏𝑦 𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡ℎ

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Source of energy: The Sun
Sun Axis

1370 W/m2

Earth

1370 × π𝑟 2 = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑏𝑦 𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡ℎ

Let P: Average solar intensity received by per unit area of earth 43
Source of energy: The Sun
Sun Axis

1370 W/m2

Earth

1370 × π𝑟 2 = 𝑃 × 4π𝑟 2
P: Average solar intensity received by the earth = 341 W/m2
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https://images.slideplayer.com/32/9813783/slides/slide_4.jpg

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 https://images.slideplayer.com/32/9813783/slides/slide_4.jpg

Shortwave radiation includes UV radiation, visible light and lower wavelength Infrared radiation (700 nm – 3000 46
nm)
 https://images.slideplayer.com/32/9813783/slides/slide_4.jpg

Longwave radiation includes higher wavelength Infrared radiation (3000 nm – 100000 nm or 100 μm )
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 (70%)
(30%) (100%)

(50%)
(12%)
(23%) (8%)
(23%)

(98%)
(5%) (24%)

(104%) (12%)
(7%)
(47%) (116%)

(0.6%)

https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/how-climate-works/energy-budget 48
 • For maintaining constant surface
temperature on earth,
Incoming shortwave radiation = Outgoing longwave radiation

• Around 23% (~79 W/m2) of the solar

radiation reflected back to space by
https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/how-climate-works/energy-budget
clouds and atmospheric constituents
• ~23% (~78 W/m2) of the solar radiation absorbed by the
atmosphere (by the clouds and other atmospheric constituents)
• ~7% (~23 W/m2) reaches the earth’s surface and reflected back
• ~47% (~ 161 W/m2 i.e. less than half) of the incoming solar
radiation reaches the earth’s surface and is absorbed by the
earth 49
 • ~47% (161 W/m2) of the incoming
radiation needs to be balanced by
equivalent amount of outgoing
longwave radiation (OLR)
• ~5% (17 W/m2) released in the form
https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/how-climate-works/energy-budget of sensible heat (thermals) – rising
warm (less dense) air parcels
• ~24% (80 W/m2) released in the form of latent heat (water
changing phase/condensing in the upper atmosphere)
Sensible heat: Energy required to change the temperature of a substance without changing its phase
Latent heat: Energy required to change the phase of a substance without changing its temperature
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Latent vs Sensible heat (for water)

Sensible heat

Source- https://climate.ncsu.edu/images/edu/latent_heat_diagram.jpeg 51
 • Both sensible and latent heat
responsible for movement of air
molecules thus resulting in wind and
vertical motion.
• Remaining ~18% (63 W/m2) energy
to be balanced make things complex
https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/how-climate-works/energy-budget

• Remaining energy radiated by earth in the form of long wave

radiation
• A significant portion of this radiated longwave radiation is
trapped by greenhouse gases (GHGs) and then re-radiated in all
directions
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 • Re-radiated longwave radiation
towards the earth further heats it up
• Earth radiates more longwave
radiation, a big proportion of which is
again trapped by GHGs
https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/how-climate-works/energy-budget

• Finally, equilibrium sets up where earth radiates 396 W/m2

(116% of the incoming shortwave radiation) in the form of
longwave radiation.
• GHGs radiate back 333 W/m2 (98% of the incoming short-wave
radiation) longwave radiation towards the earth
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 Final Energy balance for atmosphere:
Absorbed
• 78 W/m2 (23%) of the incoming
shortwave radiation
https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/how-climate-works/energy-budget
• 17 W/m2 (5%) of the sensible heat
• 80 W/m2 (24%) of the latent heat
• 356 W/m2 (104%) of the earth radiated longwave radiation
• Remaining 40 W/m2 (12%) escapes into space through
atmospheric infrared window (Longwave radiation wavelength
range which is not much absorbed by atmosphere; ~8-12 μm) 54
Atmospheric transmittance

https://www.usna.edu/Users/oceano/pguth/website/so431/quiz/atmospheric_transmittance.png

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Atmospheric transmittance

Main Infrared window

https://www.usna.edu/Users/oceano/pguth/website/so431/quiz/atmospheric_transmittance.png

Without atmospheric window earth would be too warm to support life.

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 Final Energy balance for atmosphere:
• Total Absorbed = 78 + 17 + 80 + 356
= 531 W/m2
• This should be balanced by the total
https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/how-climate-works/energy-budget
emitted radiation by the atmosphere
Emitted
• 169 W/m2 (50%) emitted by the atmospheric constituents
(other than clouds) towards the space in the form of Infrared
(IR) radiation
• 30 W/m2 (8%) emitted by the clouds towards the space (IR) 57
 Final Energy balance for atmosphere:
• 333 W/m2 (98%) emitted by the
atmosphere towards the earth (IR) –
Contribution by the GHGs
• Total Emitted = 169 + 30 + 333
= 531 W/m2
https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/how-climate-works/energy-budget

• At top of the atmosphere (TOA), total outgoing longwave

radiation = 169 +30 +40 = 239 W/m2 (70%)
• Hence, total incoming shortwave radiation at top of the
atmosphere is also balanced together by the reflected solar
radiation and total outgoing longwave radiation at the TOA 58
Earth’s energy balance

Source - https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/EnergyBalance#:~:text=Effect%20on%20Surface%20Temperature&text=On%20average%2C%20340%20watts%20per,the%
20top%20of%20 the%20atmosphere.

59
Now let’s discuss about Greenhouse gases

First let’s see some basics of atmosphere

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Dry atmospheric composition
Carbon Dioxide, 0.04 Other Trace Gases,
0.00
Argon, 0.93

Oxygen , 20.95

Nitrogen, 78.08

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Chemistry and the atmosphere

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bd/Chem
ical_composition_of_atmosphere_accordig_to_altitude.png 62
Trace gases in dry atmosphere
Carbon Dioxide CO2 0.0360%
Neon Ne 0.0018%
Helium He 0.0005%
Methane CH4 0.00017%
Hydrogen H2 0.00005%
Nitrous Oxide N2O 0.00003%
Ozone O3 0.000004%

Species that can change in concentration 63

Water in the atmosphere
• Exists in solid, liquid, and gaseous (water vapor) form in the
atmosphere
• Water vapor can vary from 0-4% depending on where on
Earth you are and what time of the day it is.
• For e.g. Water vapor concentration near the surface can be
upto 4% in humid, tropical regions
• High in the atmosphere it can be treated like a trace gas

Why are we discussing about the trace gases at all

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The Greenhouse Effect

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The Greenhouse Effect
• Process in which the longwave (infrared) radiation from the
Earth’s surface is trapped (absorbed) and re-emitted by
some of the gases in the Earth’s atmosphere
• The Gases are called greenhouse gases
• Most of these greenhouse gases are trace gases
• The gases re-emit the radiation in all directions
• Some contribution from greenhouse effect is important to
sustain life on earth (natural greenhouse effect)
• Without greenhouse effect the average temperature of Earth
would be -18 deg C (with natural GHG effect it is +15 deg C)
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Greenhouse Gases
• Gases that cause greenhouse effect in the earth’s atmosphere
• Most important ones are water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone (O3),
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and Hydrofluorocarbons (HCFCs)
Table. Estimate of contribution of greenhouse gases to greenhouse effect (Kiehl and Trenberth, 1997)
Greenhouse gas % contribution to greenhouse effect
H2O 60%
CO2 26%
Ozone 8%
CH4+N2O+others 6%
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Global Warming Potential (GWP)
• Measure of greenhouse potential of 1 ton of a greenhouse
gas relative to 1 ton of carbon dioxide usually over 100 years
• GWP for CO2 is 1
• GWP for CH4 is 28-36 (i.e. 1 ton of CH4 will have 28-36 times
bigger greenhouse effect relative to 1 ton of CO2)
• GWP for N2O is 265-298
• GWP for CFCs is in thousands

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Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector

Other
10%
Power
25%

Industry
21%

Agriculture
Transportation
24%
14%

Residential
6%

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Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Country

China
Other 30%
34%

Russia
5% US
15%
India
7% EU
9%

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Home Activity
1. What is greenhouse anyway?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=SN5-DnOHQmE&feature=emb_logo

Find out if the principle of an actual greenhouse and atmospheric greenhouse effect is same or
different

2. What is Carbon footprint?

3. Paris agreement?

4. Carbon credit system?

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References
1. Guarino, M., Sime, L.C., Schröeder, D. et al. Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss.
Nat. Clim. Chang. (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0865-2

2. Kiehl, J. T., and K. E. Trenberth (1997), Earth’s annual global mean energy budget, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 197–
208.

3. Klages, J. P. et al. Temperature rainforests near the South Pole during peak Cretaceous warmth. Nature 580, 81–86
(2020).

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