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LEK Consulting - U.S. Healthcare Landscape Review
LEK Consulting - U.S. Healthcare Landscape Review
Consulting
U.S. Healthcare Landscape Review
2017
The materials contained in this document are intended to supplement a discussion with L.E.K. Consulting. These perspectives are confidential and will only be meaningful to those in attendance.
Monish Rajpal
L.E.K. Consulting m.rajpal@lek.com
(617) 901 1834
L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC. All other products and brands mentioned in this document are properties of their respective owners.
© 2017 L.E.K. Consulting LLC
1 CONFIDENTIAL | DRAFT
What is the 2017 L.E.K. Strategic Healthcare Landscape Review?
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© 2017 L.E.K. Consulting LLC
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L.E.K. has identified six key hospital trends that highlight opportunities
for suppliers
2
Continued trend towards Opportunity to help customers navigate expected
accountable care expansion in value-based payment models
4
Growing openness to new Opportunities to re-define and optimize traditional
$ supply chain approaches contracting, pricing and distribution models
L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC. All other products and brands mentioned in this document are properties of their respective owners.
© 2017 L.E.K. Consulting LLC
3 CONFIDENTIAL | DRAFT
These trends are impacting distinct segments of the hospital landscape
differently
Accountability
Smaller hospital systems Larger hospital systems /
Consolidation + Supply Chain
with limited consolidation highly consolidated
Source: L.E.K. research and analysis L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC. All other products and brands mentioned in this document
are properties of their respective owners. © 2017 L.E.K. Consulting LLC
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Several existing and proposed changes will drive Medicaid and value
1
based payments concerns for MedTechs
DIRECTIONAL
Extensive Major Repeals– Replacements Likely Needed Saved & Potential New Major Regulations
Individual Public exchange Guaranteed Medicare premium Medicaid
Medicaid expansion
mandate premium subsidies issue support (vouchers) block grants
Medicare drug
Degree of Impact
price negotiation
Fill Part D
ACA taxes
No caps on lifetime / donut hole DSH
(Cadillac, device, etc.)
annual coverage payments
Research organizations
(e.g., CMMI, AHRQ) Agency de-regulation Price
Age rating ratio
(e.g. FDA) transparency
Mix of Medicare (FFS)* payments Mix of payment models among commercial payers
Percent of total payments Percent of total payments
100 100
Alternative
Payment Models 17% 17% 18% 18%
90 20% 90 18% 18% Capitation
(APMs)**
30%
Traditional
80 FFS or P4P^ 80 6% 7% 8% 8% 9%
50% 3% 10% Global payments
4%
5% 6%
70 Stated CMS goal 70 6% 7% Shared savings
prior to the Trump
administration
60 60
50 50 34%
51% 44% 41% 37% FFS
57%
40 80% 40
70%
30 30
50% 14% Bundled
12% 13% payments
20 20 12%
10% Value based
8% payments
10 10 17% P4P
14% 15% 16%
10% 12%
0 0
2014 2016 2018F 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F
Note: * Excludes Medicare Advantage (MA); ** APMs include the following VBC models: bundled payments, shared saving / shared risk, global payments,
capitation; this correspond to the following CMS programs: ACO, MSSP, BPCI, CPCM/MAPCP (primary care), some ESRD programs, and additional
smaller payment programs; ^ Pay for performance
Source: L.E.K. analysis of CMS data, McKesson survey data
L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC. All other products and brands
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The top 125 systems are primarily Progressive Consolidators and Local
3
Progressives and are continuing to take share from all others
Top 125 system total spend by segment All acute total spend by segment
(2013-15) (2013-15) ILLUSTRATIVE
Billions of dollars ILLUSTRATIVE CAGR% Billions of dollars
(2013-15) CAGR%
500 1,000 (2013-15)
Total 7.2 Total 5.7
~$445B
~20 Hospital Aggregator 0.0
3.8 ~$825B
~20 Local Traditionalist 8.5 Hospital 0.7
400 ~$385B 800 ~35
~$735B Aggregator
~20
~15 Local ~35
~125 12.3 Local 4.1
Progressive ~295 4.5
Traditionalist
300 ~100 600
~270
0 0
2013 15* 2013 15*
Competition from other hospitals and health systems Increasingly fewer attractive targets for acquisition
as they consolidate including anti-trust constraints in local markets
A ‘race to scale’ in local markets as larger systems Diminishing returns on scale for the systems that
begin to “own” more referral volume have consolidated
Source: L.E.K. research and analysis L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC. All other products and brands mentioned in this document
are properties of their respective owners. © 2017 L.E.K. Consulting LLC
8 CONFIDENTIAL | DRAFT
Progressive systems appear to be integrating the most, particularly with
3 ASCs and outpatient centers among other alternative sites of care
Fully owned ASC 90.6% 67.1% 50.6% 34.2% 92.8% 68.0% 39.8% 62.7%
Physician /
87.1% 60.8% 34.1% 47.4% 83.2% 60.0% 37.6% 57.0%
Alternative sites of care
physician groups
Home health
77.6% 56.3% 28.2% 34.2% 70.4% 56.0% 34.3% 50.4%
services
Partially owned
69.4% 36.7% 8.2% 18.4% 61.6% 32.0% 16.6% 34.4%
ASC
Rural health clinic 64.7% 23.4% 28.2% 39.5% 42.4% 24.0% 33.1% 34.4%
Freestanding /
satellite
60.0% 28.5% 12.9% 21.1% 52.8% 33.3% 13.3% 30.2%
emergency
department
Imaging centers 49.4% 27.8% 9.4% 21.1% 46.4% 25.3% 13.8% 26.8%
Overall (2015)^ 65% 39% 24% 30% 59% 40% 26% 39%
PPT ∆ 11% 0% 0% 0% 8% 0% 1% 3%
Note: Data on long term care not currently available; Overall level of integration determined by relative participation of a system across various types of
alternative sites of care (e.g., assisted living services, home health, satellite emergency departments, etc.); 100% represents participation in all sites;
^Represents overall percent participation in all sites of care
Source: AHA; L.E.K. research and analysis
L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC. All other products and brands
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Evolution in the way providers are utilizing their supply chains has
4
involved several different trends
Supply Chain Evolution – Spectrum of options
Supply chain
evolution Limited supply chain Extensive supply
Moderate
coordination chain coordination
coordination
Evolution of
Purchasing Purchasing
purchase
decentralized centralized and
decision
across facilities standardized
making Purchasing centralized for some
products, but decentralized for others
4.1
60 - Providers expect that direct distribution from MedTechs can
4.0 help them manage their inventory better
40
Note: *To what extent are you interested in direct distribution of products from your largest medical device suppliers (i.e., not through distributors)? Please rate on a
scale of 1 to 7 in which ‘1’ means “not interested” and ‘7’ means “very interested”
L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC. All other
Source: L.E.K. survey and analysis
products and brands mentioned in this document are properties of their respective
11 CONFIDENTIAL | DRAFT owners. © 2017 L.E.K. Consulting LLC
Providers are also increasingly utilizing regional GPOs as well as IDN
4
purchasing groups in lieu of National GPOs
L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC. All other products and brands mentioned in this document are properties of their respective owners.
© 2017 L.E.K. Consulting LLC
12 CONFIDENTIAL | DRAFT
There is increasing receptivity among hospitals to contract directly with
4
MedTechs, particularly among progressive health systems
60 58
Progressive
50 48 hospital systems
43 appear more
40 37 receptive to
33 bypassing GPOs
30
23 21 21
20
20 18
10 Non-Progressive
Progressive
0
High risk Medical capital Diagnostic Medical and Low risk
therapeutic equipment (e.g., consumables surgical therapeutic
devices (e.g., therapeutic, disposables medical
invasive and/or diagnostic, etc.) devices (e.g.,
implantable non-invasive)
devices)
% mean
change 7.3% 4.8% 5.3% 9.6% 8.7%
from 2016
Note: *For any individual product category through which you currently use GPOs, how receptive would your organization be to bypassing GPOs in favor of working directly
with a manufacturer to secure competitive pricing? Please rate on a scale of 1 to 7 in which ‘1’ means “not at all receptive to bypassing GPO” and ‘7’ means “very receptive to
bypassing GPO”
Source: L.E.K. survey and analysis L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC. All other products and brands mentioned in
this document are properties of their respective owners. © 2017 L.E.K. Consulting LLC
13 CONFIDENTIAL | DRAFT
The health system C-suite sees opportunities to standardize their
5
purchasing in several ways, including by driving clinical accountability
Planned standardization activities over the A majority of c-suite respondents (~65%) are seeking
next 5 years* (2017) more accountability in supply chain and care delivery
(n=125)
Percent of C-suite respondents
- Cost savings is the primary reason for providers’
100 pursuing medical device standardization
0
Standardize Centralize Expand clinical Rationalize
products / purchasing accountability suppliers
services decisions
Note: Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statements regarding your [hospital / hospital system]’s planned activities over the next 5 years.
Please rate on a scale of 1 to 7 in which ‘1’ means “strongly disagree” and ‘7’ means “strongly agree”.
Source: L.E.K. survey and analysis
L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC.
All other products and brands mentioned in this document are
14 CONFIDENTIAL | DRAFT properties of their respective owners. © 2017 L.E.K. Consulting LLC
Additional standardization is likely to occur across hospital departments
5
70
65
65 62
61 60 61
60 59 59
55 54 54
52
50 48
45 43 43 43 43
42
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Cardiology Oncology Orthopedics Radiology ICU ORs Patient wards Pharmacy
Note: *Q46: To what extent has your [hospital / hospital system] standardized purchasing of medical supplies and devices across the following departments / service lines at
the individual facility level? Please rate on a scale of 1 to 7 in which ‘1’ means “not at all standardized” and ‘7’ means “highly standardized.” **Respondents who answered “Do
not know” were excluded from the analysis ^Responded with a rating of 6 or 7
Source: L.E.K. interviews, survey, and analysis L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC. All other products
and brands mentioned in this document are properties of their respective owners. © 2017
15 CONFIDENTIAL | DRAFT L.E.K. Consulting LLC
Larger and more progressive systems engage in outcomes-based pricing
5
to a greater degree than smaller non-progressive systems
1
Cardiology Orthopedics Radiology Oncology Pharmacy
Note: *To what extent are you currently in outcome / value-based pricing models (e.g., risk sharing, gain sharing, etc.) with MedTech suppliers for the following service lines?
Please rate pricing models on a scale of 1 to 7 in which ‘1’ means “not at all outcome-based” and ‘7’ means “entirely outcome-based.” **Respondents who answered “Do not
know” were excluded from the analysis
Source: L.E.K. interviews, survey, and analysis
L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC. All other
products and brands mentioned in this document are properties of their
16 CONFIDENTIAL | DRAFT respective owners. © 2017 L.E.K. Consulting LLC
Survey respondents believe there is opportunity for MedTechs to play a
6
broader partnership role across several major departments in hospitals
Level of interest in seeing MedTech companies playing a
broader partnership role within hospital departments (2017)*
(n=200)**
Percent of respondents
100
80
7 - Very interested
4.7 6
4.7 4.7
4.6 4.6 4.5 5
60 4.3 4.3 4
3
2
1 - Not at all interested
40
Mean
20
0
ORs Radiology Pharmacy Cardiology Oncology Orthopedics ICU Patient
wards
Note: *To what extent would you like to see MedTech companies playing a broader partnership role and offering services in the following hospital departments and service
lines? Please rate on a scale of 1 to 7 in which ‘1’ means “not at all interested” and ‘7’ means “very interested.” **Respondents who answered “Do not know” were excluded
from the analysis
Source: L.E.K. interviews, survey, and analysis
L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC. All other products and brands mentioned in this
document are properties of their respective owners. © 2017 L.E.K. Consulting LLC
17 CONFIDENTIAL | DRAFT
These factors have left MedTech suppliers asking several questions
that have far-reaching implications
How is the provider What are our customer needs What is the best commercial
landscape evolving? and how do they vary? model for customers?
How can we quantify the What services / solutions can What are the M&A
value we bring to customers? address customer needs? opportunities in 2017?
Developing new solution offerings (often via M&A for non-traditional capabilities)
Updating commercial models to better align with evolving customer decision making
18 CONFIDENTIAL | DRAFT
Large MedTech deals over the last two years provide analogs to consider for
potential transformative opportunities
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Source: Statista, MDDI L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC. All other products and brands
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Deals that deepen capabilities and enable more comprehensive solutions
appear to drive the highest stock price appreciation
2-yr
Strategic rationale category Illustrative example Description
Stock price
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© 2017 L.E.K. Consulting LLC
20 CONFIDENTIAL | DRAFT
These factors have left MedTech suppliers asking several questions
that have far-reaching implications
How is the provider What are our customer needs What is the best commercial
landscape evolving? and how do they vary? model for customers?
How can we quantify the What services / solutions can What are the M&A
value we bring to customers? address customer needs? opportunities in 2017?
Developing new solution offerings (often via M&A for non-traditional capabilities)
Updating commercial models to better align with evolving customer decision making
21 CONFIDENTIAL | DRAFT
Leading medtechs are acquiring capabilities to strengthen their broader
solutions
MedTech leader Major and Strategic Acquisitions Implications
Increased scale and presence in hospitals
Ability to offer broader solutions (e.g.
laboratory automation)
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Company websites, L.E.K. interviews and analysis L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC. All other products and
brands mentioned in this document are properties of their respective owners. © 2017 L.E.K.
22 CONFIDENTIAL | DRAFT Consulting LLC
A broad range of solution areas are available for consideration
Consulting
services
Procedure-related
services
Product services
23 CONFIDENTIAL | DRAFT L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC. All other products and brands mentioned in this document are
properties of their respective owners. © 2017 L.E.K. Consulting LLC
Various examples exist within these categories, though examples of full or
partial ownership of clinical settings are more rare
Level of engagement
Outsourced
Procedure-related Consulting Full or partial
Product services management
services services ownership
services
Provision of product – Services to improve the Project-based Outsourced operational Either a JV focused on
related service, clinical and patient use of consulting management of a department / specialty or
support, and managed products (e.g., procedure- engagements (e.g., department (e.g., cath function (e.g., imaging /
Description
services (e.g., supply related analytics, best-practice, lean labs, clinical labs) mammography, dialysis),
chain mgmt.) education, training consulting, financial / or Full ownership, control
Provision of clinical
Traditional commercial modules, clinical operational resources (e.g., and accountability of
approach for most enhancement tools) optimization) outsourced, clinics
MedTechs An increased focus for Similar to many perfusionists, laborists, Although some dialysis
many MedTechs, department-specific anesthesiologists) manufacturers (e.g.,
particularly those with a consulting firms (e.g., and/or care Fresenius, NxStage) and
procedural focus OR, pharmacy) coordination services select diabetes players
(e.g., discharge (e.g., Medtronic) own
planning) clinics, this full or partial
ownership model is a
Examples
Source: Company websites, L.E.K. analysis L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC. All other products and brands
24 CONFIDENTIAL | DRAFT mentioned in this document are properties of their respective owners. © 2017 L.E.K. Consulting LLC
Key lessons learned should be considered as medtechs pursue broader
services and solutions
Some solutions may be Service and solution Customers will Senior hospital execs Medtechs need to be
good ideas, but may expansion become confused by may like an idea, but able to clearly articulate
not necessarily be best opportunities need to what is already given adoption also requires the value of new
offered by a specific have adequate scale (e.g., product training) significant change services / solutions
medtech and breadth to excite vs. what is incremental management
senior hospital assistance to ensure a
Capabilities to provide
executives, often a solution “sticks” and
Having customers’ Clear delineation of diagnostics and tools to
perquisite for success delivers promised
“permission” and a what services are estimate expected
results
“license to play” in a charged vs. “free” is impact are critical
targeted area can Linking solutions to critical
impact which broader hospital Offering to drive
Successful solutions
companies will succeed priorities (e.g., patient change management is
Sales reps and should eventually be
vs. fail in offering the satisfaction, lower a critical success
marketing need to be monetized via gain-
same type of solution HAIs, lower factor, including the
using consistent sharing models; these
readmission) helps ability to define
messaging and resonate with customers
drive senior baseline metrics and
License to play is at terminology as well even if they are unable
stakeholder interest measure / track
least partially impacted as consistency in to accept them currently
performance going
by the breadth and pricing
forward
relevancy of a
medtech’s product
portfolio; key gaps Many medtechs lack
could impair ability to this capability currently
provide a meaningful and need to acquire /
solution partner to obtain these
skills
L.E.K. Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K. Consulting LLC. All other products and brands mentioned in this
25 CONFIDENTIAL | DRAFT document are properties of their respective owners. © 2017 L.E.K. Consulting LLC