Encuesta de Atlas

Atlas National Poll
US Presidential
Election 2024
02/02/2024 - 02/07/2024
PUBLICATION EMBARGO:
02/09/2024
3:30pm EST
Summary
1. Methodology and sample profile
2. Results
2.1. Presidential Approval 6
2.2. Presidential Election Scenarios 13
2.3. Key Topics in the US Presidential Race 20
2.4. Social Polarization 37
2.5. Economy 40
3. About AtlasIntel
1. Methodology and sample profile
Methodology and sample profile
Gender Age
Target population Female 51.4% 18 - 29 13.2%
Registered voters in the United States Male 48.6% 30 - 44 19.6%
Sample size 45 - 64 40.4%
1,637 respondents 65+ 26.8%
Yearly household income
Methodology
Below $50k 34.4% Education Level
Random Digital Recruitment (Atlas RDR)
$50k - $100k 39.1% College degree or higher 42.3%
Margin of error
Above $100k 26.5% All other 57.7%
±2 p.p.
Confidence level for estimation of the margin of error Partisanship Region
95% Democrat 34.8% Suburban 46.3%
Polling Period Republican 26% Urban 31.2%
02/02/2024 - 02/07/2024 Independent 39.2% Rural 22.5%
Race
White 72%
Black 11%
Hispanic 9.7%
Asian 3%
Other 4.2%
Atlas National Poll - United States Presidential Election 2024 02/02/2024 - 02/07/2024 4
2. Results
2.1. Presidential Approval
Approval of President Joe Biden
Do you approve or disapprove of Joe Biden’s performance as president of the

United States?
Atlas National Poll - United States Presidential Election 2024 02/02/2024 - 02/07/2024
Approval of President Joe Biden [Demographic crossings]
Evaluation of Biden’s performance
How do you evaluate Joe Biden's performance as President?
Evaluation of Biden’s performance [Demographic crossings]
Biden performance by issue
How would you qualify President Biden’s handling of the

following issues?
-14
-22
-20
-19
-20
-26
-22
-40
-45
-33
-43
-39
-51
-46
Biden vs. Trump on issues
Between Trump and Biden, whom do you trust more to deal

with each of the following topics?
Biden + 17
Biden +15
Biden +14
Biden +15
Biden +5
Biden +3
Biden +8
Trump +3
Trump +9
Biden +2
Trump +5
Trump +6
Trump +22
Trump +10
2.2. Presidential Election Scenarios
Presidential Election: Biden vs. Trump [Scenario 1]
If these were the candidates, whom would you vote for in the upcoming
presidential elections?
Presidential Election: Biden vs. Trump [Scenario 1] [Demographic crossings]
Presidential Election: Biden vs. Haley [Scenario 2]
Presidential Election: Biden vs. Haley [Scenario 2] [Demographic crossings]
Presidential Election: Michelle Obama vs. Trump [Scenario 3]
Presidential Election: Michelle Obama vs. Trump [Scenario 3] [Demographic crossings]
2.3. Key Topics in US Presidential Race
Policy positions
Are you against or in favor of each of the following policies?
+48
+42
+9
+42
+17
+19
-23
-17
+4
-2
-34
Policy positions [Demographic crossings]
Opinion on January 6th riots
In your opinion, was the January 6th 2021 invasion of the US Capitol justified or
unjustified?
Opinion on January 6th riots [Demographic crossings]
Fairness of judicial proceedings against Trump
In your opinion, are the current judicial proceedings against Donald Trump
motivated mainly by political persecution or a genuine interest in applying the law?
Fairness of judicial proceedings against Trump [Demographic crossings]
Opinion on Biden candidacy
In your opinion, should Joe Biden drop out of the 2024 race for president?
Opinion on Biden candidacy [Demographic crossings]
Likelihood of Biden withdrawing
In your opinion, what is the likelihood that Joe Biden will drop out of the
presidential race?
Likelihood of Biden withdrawing [Demographic crossings]
Opinion on Trump candidacy
In your opinion, should Donald Trump be disqualified from running from office due
to the January 6th invasion of the Capitol?
Opinion on Trump candidacy [Demographic crossings]
Likelihood of Trump being disqualified
In your opinion, what is the likelihood that Donald Trump will be disqualified from
the presidential race?
Likelihood of Trump being disqualified [Demographic crossings]
Israel-Hamas conflict
In your opinion, who is the main culprit for the current armed conflict between
Israel and Hamas in Gaza?
Israel-Hamas conflict [Demographic crossings]
2.4. Social Polarization in the United States
Social Polarization in the United States
Would you say there is significant polarization and social conflict in the United
States between the following groups?
Social Polarization in the United States [Demographic crossings]
2.5. Economy
Current economic situation
How do you evaluate the US economy and job market right now? And how do you
evaluate your family's economic situation?
Current economic situation [Demographic crossings]
Economic expectations
What is your expectation regarding the US economy and job market six months
from now? What is your expectation regarding your family's situation?
Economic expectations [Demographic crossings]
Views on economic policy
How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements on economic
policy on a 1 to 5 scale?
Views on economic policy [Demographic crossings]
About AtlasIntel
47
About AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel is the only web-based polling

company with an A-rating in the
FiveThirtyEight pollster ranking, which
evaluates the historical accuracy and the
methodological quality of polls.
48
About AtlasIntel
Average error of national and state-level polls in the 2020 US Presidential Election
AtlasIntel was the most accurate [polls released in the final week before election day]
pollster of the 2020 presidential
election in the United States.
Atlas polls had an average error of

only two points and anticipated
election results within the margin
of error in all swing states during
the worst cycle for the US polling
industry in four decades.*
*AAPOR, 2020 Pre-Election Polling: An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls 49
About AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the 2022 presidential election in Brazil.
50
About AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the

2022 Constitutional Plebiscite in Chile
Public and private AtlasIntel polls accurately captured the

dynamics of voter mobilization and came closer to the final
vote count than any competitor.
AtlasIntel public releases both before and after the start of

the poll blackout period indicated that slightly more than
58% of Chilean voters would vote to reject the new
constitution; with 61,8% of votes cast against the new
constitutional text, AtlasIntel came closest to the final
outcome regardless of whether one considers polls
released before or during the blackout period.
51
About AtlasIntel
Pollster average error

AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of
the last three election cycles in Argentina
(presidential elections, legislative primaries,
and legislative elections).
In each of the three election cycles, AtlasIntel had the

lowest polling error. In 2023, AtlasIntel was the only
pollster to correctly indicate the winners of both the 1st
Round (Sergio Massa) and the runoff (Javier Milei).
2019 Argentina
Presidential Election Polls
2019 Atlas Tracking Pro

Time series
52
About AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel polls anticipated the major (Public polls)

swings of the 2022 presidential race in
Result Result Result Result Result Result
Colombia, during the primaries and the
campaigning for the 1st round of voting Primaries
Result by coalition
and then the runoff.
FIRST ROUND
SECOND ROUND
Blank votes
Average error
53
About AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel was the only pollster to correctly

anticipate the deadlock resulting from the 23 July Elections in Spain: Comparison of Results vs. Poll Estimates
2023 legislative election in Spain PP vs. PSOE
margin Poll error
Final Result
With an error of less than a tenth of a percentage

point, AtlasIntel was the only pollster to correctly
estimate the difference between the PP and the PSOE
as well as the difference between the ideological
left-right blocks. The surprising result resulted in a
legislative deadlock.
54
www.atlasintel.org info@atlasintel.org

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Atlas National Poll

1. Methodology and sample proﬁle

Do you approve or disapprove of Joe Biden’s performance as president of the

How do you evaluate Joe Biden's performance as President?

How would you qualify President Biden’s handling of the

Between Trump and Biden, whom do you trust more to deal

Are you against or in favor of each of the following policies?

AtlasIntel is the only web-based polling

Atlas polls had an average error of

AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the

Public and private AtlasIntel polls accurately captured the

AtlasIntel public releases both before and after the start of

Pollster average error

In each of the three election cycles, AtlasIntel had the

2019 Atlas Tracking Pro

AtlasIntel polls anticipated the major (Public polls)

AtlasIntel was the only pollster to correctly

With an error of less than a tenth of a percentage

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