Sample Size Estimation

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 Introduction
 In planning any investigation; we must decide how
many people need to be studied in order to answer
the study objectives.
 Why is it important to consider sample size?
 Too small sample = Waste of time and resources
= Results have no practical use
 Too large sample = Waste of resources

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 Con…
• It is a widespread belief among researchers that the
bigger the sample, the better the study becomes.
• This is not necessarily true.

• In general it is much better to increase the accuracy of

data collection than to increase sample size after a
certain point by:
– improving the training of interviewers or by better pre-
testing of the data collection tools
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 Con…
• Also, it is better to make extra efforts to get a
representative sample rather than to get a very large
sample
• The eventual sample size is usually a compromise
between what is desirable and what is feasible
• The feasible sample size is determined by the
availability of resources like
Time
manpower
Transport
available facility, and Money etc…

• It is also important to remember that resources are not

only needed to collect the information, but also to
analyze it
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Sample size determination depends on the:

 Objective of the study

 Design of the study

 Plan for statistical analysis

 Accuracy of the measurements to be made

 Degree of precision required for generalization

 Degree of confidence with which to conclude

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 Con…
• To calculate the required sample size, you need to
know the following facts:
– Reasonable estimate of key proportion or mean to be
studied
• If you cannot guess the proportion, take 50%
– The degree of accuracy required
• That is, the allowed deviation from the true
proportion in the population as a whole. It can be

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within 1% or 5% 6
 Con….
• The confidence level required, usually specified as 95%

• The size of the population that the sample is to

represent
– If >10,000 the precise magnitude is not likely to be very
important; but if population < 10,000 then a smaller
sample size may be required (use correction formula)

• The power of the study that helps in finding a

statistically significant difference
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 Single population proportion estimate

 Measure with a precision

• Whenever we propose to estimate population
parameters, such as, population mean, proportion, or
total, we need to estimate with a specified level of
precision

• We like to specify a sample size that is sufficiently large

to ensure a high probability that errors of estimation
can be limited within desired limits
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 Con…
Stated mathematically:

 We want a sample size to ensure that we can estimate

a value , say, p from a sample which corresponds to
the population parameter, P.

 Since we may not guarantee that p will be exact to P,

we allow some error

 Error is limited to certain extent, that is this error

should not exceed some specified limit, say d
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 Estimate how big the proportion might be (P)
 This proportion can be taken from previous studies/
Literatures
 Choose the margin of error you will allow in the estimate of the
proportion (say ± d)
 Choose the level of confidence that the proportion in the whole
population is indeed between (p - d) and (p + d).

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 Points to be considered

1. If sampling is from a finite population of size N, then

where n0 is the sample from an infinite population (N<10,000)

2. The initial sample size approached in the study may need to
be increased in accordance with the expected response rate,
loss to follow up, lack of compliance, and any other predicted
reasons for loss of subjects
3. Design effect for complex cluster sampling; Common values
multiply n by 1.5, 2, 3, …5.
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 example
a) Let p = 0.26 , w = 0.03 , Z = 1.96 ( i.e., for a 95% C.I.)
 n = (1.96)2 (0.26 × 0.74) / (.03)2 = 821.25 ≈ 822
 Thus , the study should include at least 822 subjects.

b) If the above sample is to be taken from a relatively small

population (say N=3000), the required minimum sample
will be obtained from the above estimate by making some
adjustment
 821.25 / (1+ (821.25/3000)) = 644.7 ≈ 645 subjects
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• Suppose you wish to estimate the prevalence of acute respiratory
tract infection, with a precision of 5%, in a target population
comprising children aged 2‐4 years in a particular region of a
developing country.

• Since an estimate of P is not available until the survey has been

carried out, the sample size calculation formula does not tell you
what sample size is needed.

• However, the formula may still be used to get a range of sample

sizes corresponding to various assumptions for the values of P.

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 Solutions

P = 0.1 → n = (1.96)2(0.1)(0.9)/(0.05)2 = 138

P = 0.2 → n = (1.96)2(0.2)(0.8)/(0.05)2 = 246

P = 0.3 → n = (1.96)2(0.3)(0.7)/(0.05)2 = 323

P = 0.5 → n = (1.96)2(0.5)(0.5)/(0.05)2 = 384

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 Con…
• For a fixed absolute precision d, the required sample
size increases as P increases from 0 to 0.5, and then
decreases in the same way as the prevalence
approaches 1.
• If you had absolutely no idea about the prevalence (if
you wished to estimate several different prevalence
from the same survey), the safest approach to take is
to assume that P=0.5
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Example 2

• A hospital administrator wishes to know what

proportion of discharged patients are unhappy with the
care received during hospitalization . If 95% Confidence
interval is desired to estimate the proportion within 5%,
how large a sample should be drawn?

n = Z2 p(1-p)/d2 =(1.96)2(0.5.5)/(0.05)2 =384

N.B. If you don’t have any information about P, take it as 50%

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 Estimating a mean
• The same approach is used but with SE = σ / √n

• The required (minimum) sample size for a very large

population is given by: n = (Zα/2)2 σ2 / d2
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 Example

• A researcher wishes to estimate mean CD4 count

level in a defined community. From preliminary
contact he thinks this mean is about 400 mg/dl with
a standard deviation of 40 mg/dl. If he is willing to
tolerate a sampling error of up to 5 mg/dl in his
estimate, how many subjects should be included in
his study?
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 Con..
• If the population size is assumed to be very large, the
required sample size would be:
• n = (1.96)2 (40)2 / (5)2

=3.8416x1600/25

=245.8624 ≈ 246

• If the population size is, say, 2000, the required

sample size would be 219 persons
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 Thank
you
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