Appendix 13

CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT

I. BASIC PROJECT INFORMATION

Project Title: Rajasthan State Highways Investment Program ((Tranche 3)

Project Cost ($ million): 158.10
Location: Banswara, Bharatpur, Churu, Jodhpur, and Nagaur districts in Rajasthan
Sector: Transport/Road transport (non-urban)
Theme: inclusive economic growth; environmentally sustainable growth
Brief Description: The Government of Rajasthan has applied for a loan from ADB towards the
cost of the tranche 3 of RSHIP multitranche financing facility, aiming at
enhancing connectivity and sustainability of road transport networks in the
state. The investment program also includes maintenance of the project roads
up to 10 years for HAM and 5 years for EPC.

The tranche 3 of RSHIP will improve selected state highways and major district
roads located in Banswara, Bharatpur, Churu, Jodhpur, and Nagaur. Activities,
under tranche 3, will entail (i) widening of existing road to two-lane and four-
lane with paved shoulders, (ii) strengthening and reconstruction of the road and
drainage structures, and (iii) improvements of road and junction geometries,
with the overall objective to achieve road transport efficiency and road safety
in the state. The total length of the subproject roads is about 290 km.
ADB = Asian Development Bank; EPC = engineering, procurement, and construction; HAM = hybrid annuity model;
RSHIP =Rajasthan State Highway Investment Program
Source: Asian Development Bank.

II. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE CHANGE FINANCE

Project Financing Climate Finance

Amount Adaptation Mitigation
Source ($ million) ($ million) ($ million)
Asian Development Bank
Ordinary capital resources (concessional loan) 110.00 22.49 1.13

Counterpart
Governmenta 48.10 0.00 0.00
Total 158.10 22.49 1.13
aGovernment of Rajasthan will fund the performance-based maintenance contracts.
Source: Asian Development Bank.

III. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE RISK SCREENING AND ASSESSMENT

A. Sensitivity of Project Components to Climate or Weather Conditions and the Sea Level
Project Components Sensitivity to Climate or Weather Conditions

1. Improvement of selected 290 km of High

state highways and major district roads,
bridges and road furniture and ancillary
works
2. Capacity enhancement support for
business operating procedures and
gender equality
The state of Rajasthan is vulnerable to impacts of
monsoon and acute drought, which is an almost regular
feature especially in the western semi-arid and desert
regions, in the state. Sandstorms and cyclones also
occur frequently in the desert districts. Rajasthan also
comprises of 15 river basins that have high flood
potential:
2 Appendix 13

• Rise in air temperature and temperature extremes

can accelerate the ageing of road surfacing
bitumen layers leading to surface cracking,
migration of asphalt and rutting, and increased rate
of wear and tear.
• Rise in temperature extremes impacts on concrete
construction practices, including thermal
expansion on bridge expansion joints.
• Changes in rainfall, temperature and evaporation
patterns can alter the moisture balances in road
embankments and pavements.
• Precipitation increase and increase in intense
precipitation events can cause overloading of
drainage systems, causing backups and flooding,
and increases in road washouts.
• Changes in seasonal precipitation and river flow
patterns induce increased risk of floods from runoff,
landslides, slope failures, and damage to roads
and bridges.
• Storms and more frequent strong cyclones can
bring about increased road flooding, greater
probability of infrastructure failures, erosion of road
base and bridge supports, bridge scour, reduced
clearance under bridges, wind damage to signs,
lighting, overhead cables, road signals, and tall
structures.
B. Climate Risk Screeninga
Risk Topic Description of the Risk
Extreme temperature High: All project districts are at risk of prolonged exposure to high
maximum temperatures, ranging from 42°C to 44°C.
Wind and Cyclone High: All project districts except Banswara are at high risk for wind and
cyclone damage.
River floods (associated with High: The level of risks posed by river flooding is high in Bharatpur, which
extreme rainfall events) means that there is a higher than 20% chance that potentially damaging
and life-threatening river floods occur in the next 10 years. This subproject
road is specifically located in a high flood risk zone.
Water scarcity High: There is more than 20% chance of droughts happening in the next
10 years.
Earthquake Medium: There is a 10% chance of potentially damaging earthquake
shaking the project area in the next 50 years.
Climate Risk Classification High
C. Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment
1. Reported climate risks include extreme temperature, strong winds and cyclone, river floods, water
scarcity, and earthquake.
2. Extreme temperature, which is projected to exceed 40°C on a regular basis, will impact road
pavement integrity that cause road surface failure through softening, rutting, and cracking; and will
cause bridges to undergo expansion / contraction cycles that impact on bearings and expansion
joints, causing its deformation and failure.

Adaptation Options
1. Climate change adaptation options will address the following climate risks: extreme temperature,
wind and cyclones, river floods, water scarcity, and earthquake
2. Climate change adaptation may involve additional investments for reconstruction / improvement in
bridge protection works and raising of approach to bridge level, river protection works, increase in
number and improvement of culvert discharge capacity, improvement in road side drainage
 Appendix 13 3

structures and capacities, slope stabilization works, bioengineering works on hills and
embankment slopes, raising of embankment height above high flood level, improvement of
pavement rigidity in marsh / waterlogged areas, route realignment/construction of bypass,
rainwater harvesting structures, and tree plantation.
D. Climate Risk Screening Tool and/or Procedure Used:
South Asia Department climate risk screening framework and methodology
ThinkHazard assessment tool
CRVA – climate risk and vulnerability assessment, mm – millimeter, RCP – representative concentration pathway.
a ThinkHazard, https://thinkhazard.org/en/
b https://nanded.gov.in/disaster-management/
c https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/
d https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/

Source: Asian Development Bank

IV. CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLANS WITHIN THE PROJECT

Estimated
Adaptation Cost
Adaptation Activity Target Climate Risk ($ million)a Adaptation Finance Justification
1. Reconstruction Flooding arising from 1.09 Incremental cost to improve bridge
and/or extreme precipitation design for new, for reconstruction
improvement in and/or repair, and upgraded bridges
bridges including raising of approach to new
bridge height
2. River protection Flooding and 1.30 Protection of adjoining areas from
scouring of inundation and erosion envisaged in
riverbanks arising EPC 01 and 04
from extreme
precipitation
3. Increase in the Flooding arising from 2.46 Includes incremental cost of
number of culverts extreme precipitation increased discharge capacities of
and general and surface runoff culverts and construction of new
improvement in from rivers culverts
culvert discharge
capacities
4. Improvement in Flooding arising from 7.05 Covered RCC drains in built-up
roadside drainage extreme rainfall urban sections and earth drains in
structures and events rural sections on both sides for
capacities entire project road lengths in all EPC
packages
5. Slope stabilization Flooding and extreme 0.59 Includes cost of retaining and/or toe
and/or protection precipitation that walls and turfing
works cause erosion and
landslides
6. Raising of Flooding arising from 2.23 Construction of high embankments
embankment extreme precipitation (> 3m, < 6m) for a total length of
height above high 4.475 km in at least three locations
flood level (HFL) in EPC 04
in flood prone
sections
7. Improvement of Extreme heat, 4.47 Cost of rigid concrete pavement in
pavement flooding and extreme built-up areas
precipitation
8. Route realignment Flooding that disrupts 2.31 Full cost of realigned portions that
and/or connectivity and avoid flood prone areas

INTERNAL. This information is accessible to ADB Management and staff. It may be shared outside ADB with appropriate permission.
 4 Appendix 13

Estimated
Adaptation Cost
Adaptation Activity Target Climate Risk ($ million)a Adaptation Finance Justification
construction of causes erosion and
bypass landslides
9. Construction of Drought and/or water 1.00 Cost of all water harvesting
water harvesting scarcity structures
structures
Total, US$ million 22.49 ADB will finance 100% of climate
adaptation costs
Climate Change Adaptation Cost as % of Total 26.80%
Civil Works Cost
ADB = Asian Development Bank; EPC = engineering, procurement, and construction; RCC = reinforced cement concrete
a
Conversion: 1 US$ = ₹76.32 (25 March 2022)
Source: Asian Development Bank.

V. CLIMATE MITIGATION PLANS WITHIN THE PROJECT

Estimated GHG Estimated

Emissions Reduction Mitigation Costs
Mitigation Activity (tCO2e/year)a ($ million) Mitigation Finance Justification
Tree Plantation 296b 1.13 Carbon sequestration capacity of
mature trees
Improvements in the 65,513c 0 The project’s main objective is to
road capacity and improve the road connectivity in
surface condition the state of Rajasthan by
enhancing the capacity and road
condition of state highways and
major district roads. As co-benefit
of the project, it allows road users
to travel at faster speeds and
reduce the congestion, which
results in less fuel consumption
and GHG emission. The better
road condition also improves the
vehicle operating status which
leads to less GHG emission.
However, as road construction
activity is normally not recognized
as mitigation activity, no mitigation
finance is claimed conservatively
and only GHG emission reduction
is claimed as co-benefit.
Total 65,809 1.13
GHG = greenhouse gas, tCO2e = tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.
a Energy savings/year x emission factor = GHG emissions reduction
b Emissions reduction is computed as: total number of trees felled x additional plantation ratio x survival rate x carbon

sequestration ability of mature trees based on generally accepted estimate of 22 kg/year of CO 2 per mature tree per
year.
c GHG emissions reduction of 65,513 tCO e was derived using Transport Emissions Evaluations Model for Projects
2
(TEEMP). Details are in Chapter VI of Appendix 9, Initial Environmental Examination.
Source: Asian Development Bank.
 Appendix 13

Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment

April 2022

India: Rajasthan State Highway Investment Program

(Tranche 3)
6 Appendix 13

Table of Contents

I. INTRODUCTION 7
A. Background 7
B. Climate Change Strategy of Rajasthan 8
C. Climate Risk and Adaptation Assesment (CRA) - Rationale 8
II. CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT 9
A. Sector Climate Risk and Vulnerability 9
B. Climate Change Adaptation 10
C. Scope, Methodology and Limitations 10
1. Scope 10
2. Methodology 10
3. Limitations 11
III. NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE PROJECT CORRIDORS 12
A. Physiography and Climate 12
B. Hazards and Disaster Risks 13
IV. CLIMATE, OBSERVED TRENDS AND PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE 17
A. The Baseline Climate 17
B. Observed Climate Trends 17
C. Future Climate Projections for Rajasthan 19
D. Summary of Climate and Projections for Rajasthan 21
V. CLIMATE RISKS AND OUTLOOKS ON ADAPTATION 23
A. General 23
B. Risks and Vulnerabilities 23
VI. ADAPTATION MEASURES AND COSTS 27
A. Climate Change Adaptation Features of RSHIP Tranche 3 Project Roads 27
B. Summary Costs of Climate Change Adaptation Measures 29
C. Climate Mitigation 31
 Appendix 13 7

I. INTRODUCTION

A. Background

1. Rajasthan, a state in the north-western of India, is located between 23o3’ to 30o12’ north
and 69 29’ to 78o17’ east. The state is bound to the north and northeast by the states of Punjab
o

and Haryana, to the east and southeast by the states of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, to
the southwest by the state of Gujarat, and to the west and northwest by the provinces of Sindh
and Punjab in Pakistan. Rajasthan, with an area 342,239 square kilometres is the largest state in
India which represents about 10.4% of India's total geographical area. It has a population of
68.621 million (2011 Census) and is the seventh largest populated state in India.

2. Rajasthan has four well-defined seasons as: (i) hot-weather season, from March to mid-
June characterized by hot and dry winds (locally called Loo) with occasional dust-storms, with
daily maximum temperatures reaching to as high as 40 to 450C and very scanty rain, if at all, (ii)
season of general rains brought about by south-west monsoon from mid-June to September, (iii)
season of retreating monsoon marked by clear skies, moist conditions and daily maximum
temperatures in the range of 33 to 360C, and (iv) cool-weather season, from November to
February with average mean temperatures typically around 12 to 16°C. In terms of annual total
rainfall, east Rajasthan receive more rainfall than those of west Rajasthan. The mean annual
rainfall in the east and west Rajasthan are about 69.4 centimeter (cm) and 32.7 cm respectively.

3. Reliable and efficient road transport networks are vital to economic development, trade
and social integration in landlocked Rajasthan. The Public Works Department (PWD) of the
Government of Rajasthan is entrusted with design, construction, and maintenance of roads and
bridges in the state and the total length of roads under its jurisdiction as of March 2018 is about
159,350 km as given in Table 1 below:

Table 1: Rajasthan Road Network with PWD (as on 31 March 2018)

Lengths of Roads by Classification, km
Public Works Department Painted Metalled Gravelled Seasonal Total
Road Road Road Road
1. National Highways 3,332.62 4.00 4.00 3,340.62
2. State Highways 15,007.51 4.20 17.00 56.20 15,084.91
3. Major District Roads 8,160.00 1.00 56.25 190.31 8,407.56
4. Other District Roads 14,880.14 15.50 366.58 15,262.22
5. Village Roads 114,782.97 142.47 2,328.92 117,254.36
Total, km 156,163.24 163.17 2,772.75 250.51 159,349.67
Source: Basic Roads Statistics of Rajasthan as of 31 March 2018. Public Works Department, Rajasthan Jaipur

4. The Government of Rajasthan has applied for a loan from the Asian Development Bank
(ADB) towards the cost of tranche 3 of the Rajasthan State Highway Investment Program
(RSHIP), aiming to enhancing connectivity and sustainability of road transport networks in the
state. The tranche 3 of RSHIP proposed to improve the selected state highways and major district
roads (MDR) as listed in Table 2 and the activities will entail widening of existing roads to two-
lane and four-lane with paved shoulders, strengthening and reconstruction of the road and
drainage structures, improvements of road and junction geometries, with the overall objectives to
achieve road transport efficiency and road safety in the state of Rajasthan.
8 Appendix 13

Table 2: RSHIP Tranche 3 Project Scope

Package number EPC-01 EPC-02 EPC-03 EPC-04
Paloda-Garhi
Dantiwara Churu
Kherli Nadbai Anandpuri
Name of road Pipar Merta Taranagar
Kumher up to Gujarat Total
City Nohar
Border
SH-10A,
State highway number 21 36 44
MDR-22
Estimated total cost in ₹
2,554.30 2,764.00 864.90 1,647.40 790.22
million
Cost in $ million equivalent 31.08 33.63 10.52 20.05 9.62
Total length (km) 86.7 111.94 38.6 53.27 290.51
Length two-lane (km) 68.23 110.68 38.6 52.27 269.78
Length four-lane (km) 18.47 1.26 0 1 20.73
EPC = engineering, procurement, and construction; km = kilometer; MDR = major district roads
Source: Project Management Consultant, RSHIP

B. Climate Change Strategy of Rajasthan

5. The Government of India developed its first National Action Plan on Climate Change
(NAPCC) in 2008 with eight national missions at its core and the objectives to addressing the
impacts of climate change through understanding of climate change, adaptation, mitigation,
energy efficiency and natural resource conservation while pursuing overall economic growth. All
the Indian states were directed to prepare State Action Plans for Climate Change (SAPCCs) in
line with the NAPCC and in 2014, the Rajasthan Action Plan for Climate Change (RAPCC) came
into effect. 1

6. The RAPCC encapsulates the state’s unique vulnerabilities in terms of exposure to

climatic extremes and varying capabilities to be able to respond to the likely risks, and
opportunities that can be tapped on. The RAPCC builds on the key areas as identified under the
NAPCC by prioritizing urgent areas of action in a phased and time-bound manner and is in
coherence with the Rajasthan State Environment Policy and Environment Mission. While the
RAPCC primarily focuses on risk reduction and adaptation measures, it also looks into the co-
benefits offered by specific strategies in the form of mitigation.

C. Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment (CRA) - Rationale

7. Since 2010, the ADB has assisted developing member countries (DMCs) in climate-
proofing of projects to ensure their outcomes are not compromised by climate change and
variability or by natural hazards in general. ADB has adopted a climate risk management
approach in an increasing significant number of investment projects and a framework for climate
proofing has been developed that guides the requirement that exposure and vulnerability to
climate change risks be identified and accounted for in the preparation of investment projects.2
The framework encourages a sequential process to assess climate change vulnerability and
impacts, and to ascertain mitigation and adaptation needs and options for implementation.

1 Government of Rajasthan. 2014. Rajasthan State Action Plan on Climate Change . Jaipur.
2 ADB. 2014. Climate Proofing ADB Investment in the Transport Sector, Initial Experience. Manila.
 Appendix 13 9

II. CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT

A. Sector Climate Risk and Vulnerability

8. There is now world-wide recognition that the warming of the global climate system is
definite; global average temperatures are higher than they were in past centuries, and they
continue to increase. As a result, seas and oceans are warming, polar ice caps and high elevation
glaciers in mountainous regions are melting, sea levels are rising, and there are more varied and
extreme weather patterns. In general, temperatures will be on average higher, there will be more
incidents of record hot weather, precipitation levels and flooding risks will be higher, and more
frequent and more severe extreme weather events are expected to increase under global
warming and a changed future climate.

9. While worldwide efforts are in progress to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which
is the primary driver of global warming, the reduction of risks and vulnerabilities posed by climate
change has become necessary to avoid serious environmental, infrastructural, financial and
human damages. There is overwhelming focus in academic literatures with respect to climate
change and the road sector, on ways in which the sector can reduce emissions to help mitigation
efforts while at the same time focussing attention on climate impacts on sector's infrastructural
integrity and performance and the necessity for mitigation and adaptation actions. Climate risks
and vulnerability assessments that identify the nature and magnitude of climate change impacts
on road transport sector is receiving considerable attention throughout the world.

10. Climate risks in the road sector are driven by long-term changes in temperature and
precipitation that put road infrastructure and operations to severe risks as a result of increase in
frequencies and intensities of extreme weather events brought about by climate change. Climate
change vulnerability (or climate vulnerability or climate risk vulnerability) is the propensity or
predisposition to be adversely affected by climate change and is portrayed through a relationship
between exposure, sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and adaptive capacity to cope and adapt.
The impacts of climate change depend on geographic location, the local environment and the
ability to respond to and adapt to climatic events and differs within communities and across
societies, regions and countries, and can change over time. Estimating risk is an uncertain
science as it involves forecasting climate change events and magnitudes for which the time and
location remain largely obscure.

11. Road transport infrastructures and/or assets are constantly exposed and sensitive to both
natural as well as man-made hazards and risks. Briefly outlined below are some generic climate
related risks on road infrastructures and although road assets are generally designed to withstand
some variation of extreme climate and associated risks, climate change has the potential to
intensify those risks in the long run. Such impending risks driven by climate change call for
reconsiderations about how roads are designed, constructed, and maintained in order to achieve
desired lasting benefits.

(i) Changes in rainfall, temperature and evaporation patterns can alter the moisture
balances in road embankments and pavements
(ii) Rise in the water table that can lead to the reduction of the structural strength of
the road pavement leading to damages to earthworks, embankments, and
drainage systems
(iii) Rise in air temperature and temperature extremes can accelerate the ageing of
road surfacing bitumen layers leading to surface cracking, migration of asphalt and
rutting, and increased rate of wear and tear.
10 Appendix 13

(iv) Rise in temperature extremes impacts on concrete construction practices,

including thermal expansion on bridge expansion joints
(v) Precipitation increase and increase in intense precipitation events can cause
overloading of drainage systems, causing backups and flooding, and increases in
road washouts
(vi) Changes in seasonal precipitation and river flow patterns induce increased risk of
floods from runoff, landslides, slope failures, and damage to roads and bridges
(vii) Storms and more frequent strong cyclones can bring about increased road
flooding, greater probability of infrastructure failures, erosion of road base and
bridge supports, bridge scour, reduced clearance under bridges, wind damage to
signs, lighting, signs, overhead cables, road signals, and tall structures

B. Climate Change Adaptation

12. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines climate adaptation as
the actions taken to manage impacts of climate change by reducing vulnerability and exposure to
its harmful effects and exploiting any potential benefits. Climate change besides worsening
already known risks can produce new kinds of hazards and threats in the long run but as
visualization and prediction of future risks of climate change at local geographical scales are
difficult to foresee with high degree of confidence, any climate-resilience measure(s) can only
help reduce the risks and not fully eliminate the risks. It may also not be necessary to do every
visualized adaptation measure at once as adaptation and mitigation responses, if necessary, can
also be achieved iteratively in later stages based on experience and emerging new information.

13. Adaptation options in the transport sector are grouped into engineering (structural or hard)
options and non-engineering (soft) options.3 Hard options can be complex and expensive and
usually involves selecting strategies that strengthen and or improve upon the already known
structural deficiencies or selecting safety margins that improve robustness of structures. Soft
adaptation involves selecting forms of natural infrastructure or natural capital such as ecosystems
and forests that have the natural ability to respond to alterations in climate change including the
use of low-impact and locally appropriate technologies. On the other hand, a decision not to act,
or to maintain a business as usual (BAU) approach (“do nothing” option) can also be retained in
a number of circumstances driven by uncertainties such as information gaps, and also when
conclusions from the risks and adaptation assessments may indicate that doing nothing (no
climate proofing) could be the best option.

C. Scope, Methodology and Limitations

1. Scope

14. The scope of this CRA pertains to looking at aspects of structural (hard) adaptation and
mitigation measures against climate change risks with focus on temperature and precipitation
induced vulnerabilities. These include road assets such as road embankment and pavement,
drains, culverts and bridges, slope and flood protection structures and mitigation strategies such
as realignment, bioengineering, etc.

2. Methodology

3 ADB. 2011. Guidelines for Climate Proofing Investment in the Transport Sector. Road Infrastructure Projects. Manila.
 Appendix 13 11

15. Desk Reviews. This CRA is based on reviews of the feasibility studies conducted for each
of the EPC packages. Although climate change, adaptation and or mitigation are not the primary
themes of the feasibility studies, yet it is understood that the proposed improvements, options,
and interventions considered for climate sensitive road components address current deficiencies
and drawbacks and that helps build certain resilience against impending impacts of climate
change.

16. This CRA has drawn largely from the assessments and recommendations made in the
following relatable scopes of works defined in the feasibility studies: (i) topographic surveys of the
existing alignments, (ii) inventory and condition surveys of existing roads, (iii) pavement
investigations, (iv) inventory and condition surveys for bridges, cross drainage structures and
drainage provisions (v) sub-grade and sub-soil characteristics and strength and embankment
design, and (vi) identification of possible improvements in existing alignments with alternatives,
evaluation of different alternatives, comparison of techno-economic and other considerations and
recommendations regarding most appropriate options.

3. Limitations

17. Climate factors manifest their effects in a multitude of ways that make climate proofing a
challenging activity given the complexities and uncertainties of the factors that define climate risks
and vulnerability, particularly at a project scale. Although the impacts of climate change are widely
recognized, there exists gaps in guidance materials and information resources necessary to
facilitate the climate proofing of investment projects within the region.4 Further, there is no clear
and universally adopted methodology to model the adverse effects of climate change and its
integration in infrastructure design procedures.

18. As the climate change adaptation and mitigation measures for the project roads are based
primarily on desk reviews of the project feasibility documents, there will certainly be a large
number of important qualification and limitation issues affected by deficient assessments of
climate risks, and vulnerabilities which impacts the interpretation and application of mitigation and
adaptation measures in terms of appropriateness and robustness of climate proofing.

4 ADB. 2011. Guidelines for Climate Proofing Investment in the Transport Sector: Road Infrastructure Projects.
Manila.
12 Appendix 13

III. NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE PROJECT CORRIDORS

A. Physiography and Climate

19. The physiographic relief of Rajasthan 5 comprises the following (Figure 1): (i) western
desert region located towards the west of the state, which is dry desert of sand dunes with average
elevations ranging from 60m to 360m above sea level. It encompasses the districts of Barmer,
Bikaner, Churu, Ganganagar, Hanumangarh, Jaisalmer, Jalore, Jhunjhunu, Jodhpur, Nagaur,
Sikar, and Sirohi; (ii) semi-arid region located between the western desert region and the Aravalli
range and encompasses the districts of Barmer, Bikaner, Jaisalmer, Jodhpur, and the western
parts of Churu and Nagaur; (iii) Aravalli region consisting of complex old mountains extending to
a length of 692 km in south-west to north-east direction with several peaks over 1000m asl. Mount
Abu at 1727m is the highest peak. The Aravalli range extends into the districts of Alwar, Ajmer,
Dausa, Jaipur, Jhunjhunu, Rajsamand, Sikar, Sirohi, and Udaipur; (iv) eastern plains region,
predominantly a river basin plain formed by the rivers Banas and Mahi. The plains encompass
the districts of Alwar, Bharatpur, Bhilwara, Karauli, Jaipur, Madhopur, Sawai, and Tonk, and parts
of Banswara, Chittorgarh and Dungarpur; and (v) south-eastern plateau region, locally known as
Hadauti, spreads over the districts of Baran, Bundi, Jhalawar, Kota and eastern part of
Chittorgarh. The average height of the plateau is 500m asl and is composed of lava mixed rocks.

20. The Köppen-Geiger climate classification is one of the most widely used climate
classification systems that divides the world’s climates into five main climate groups, viz: A
(tropical), B (dry), C (temperate), D (continental), and E (polar) with each group divided into
several sub-groups based on seasonal precipitation and temperature patterns. Rajasthan exhibits
several types of climate6 such as: (i) BWh or hot desert climate in the districts of Jodhpur, Bikaner,
Sri Ganganagar, Churu, and Nagaur; (ii) BSh – hot semi-arid climate, in the districts of Jaipur,
Kota, Ajmer, Udaipur, Bhilwara; (iii) Csa – hot-summer Mediterranean climate in the districts of
Dhaulpur, Bharatpur. Sawai Madhopur, Jhalawar, Jhalarapatan, Jharol; and (iv) Aw - tropical
savanna climate in the districts of Banswara, Aklera, Pirawa, Kushalgarh, and Manoharthana.

21. The project roads numbered according to EPC packages, their locations in districts of
Rajasthan, the physiographic relief, and the type of climate in those districts is shown in Figure 1.

5 Rajasthan, Introduction, Physical Features and Drainage System. accessed on 10 November 2022 at
selfstudys.com
6 Climate-Data-Org. accessed on 10 November 2022 at https://en.climate-data.org/asia/india/rajasthan-739/
 Appendix 13 13

Road Name Dantiwara Pipar Merta City

District(s)
Jodhpur and Nagaur
Located in
Figure 1: General Physiography and EPC
Physiographic Parts of Western Desert region and
Climate Type in the Project Corridors 01
Zone Semi-Arid region
Bhw – hot desert climate, and
Climate Type
Bsh – hot semi-arid climate
Road Name Churu Taranagar Nohar
District(s)
Churu
Located in
EPC
Physiographic Parts of Western Desert region and
02
Zone Semi-Arid region
Bhw – hot desert climate, and
Climate Type
Bsh – hot semi-arid climate
Road Name Kherli Nadbai Kumher
Districts
Bharatpur
Located in
EPC
Physiographic
03 Eastern Plains region
Zone
Csa – Hot-summer Mediterranean
Climate Type
climate
Paloda-Garhi Anandpuri upto
Road Name
Gujarat Border
District(s)
Banswara
EPC Located in
Source of Base Map: BeTrained.in 04 Physiographic
Eastern Plains region
Zone
Csa – Hot-summer Mediterranean
Climate Type
climate

B. Hazards and Disaster Risks

22. The Disaster Management Relief and Civil Defence of the Government of Rajasthan (DM)
highlights the types of disasters, both natural and man-made, and disaster risks in the state that
affect the lives and livelihood of millions of the people residing in the state. Natural disasters
include extreme temperatures manifested in heat waves and cold waves, floods, droughts,
earthquakes, wildfire, and cyclones while human induced disasters include road accidents, and
epidemics. 7

23. A paradigm shift from traditional relief-centric approach to proactive prevention, mitigation
and preparedness-driven approach has been adopted by Rajasthan. Capacity building of all
stakeholders and mainstreaming disaster management into developmental plans and
programmes to make Rajasthan a disaster-resilient state has been in effect since the formulation
of disaster management policy in 2014.

24. The state is vulnerable to impacts of monsoon and acute drought which is an almost
regular feature in the state, especially in the western semi-arid and desert regions. Sandstorms
and cyclones also occur frequently in the desert districts. Rajasthan comprises of 15 river basins
in all that have high flood potential. The state is vulnerable to earthquakes and many parts of
Rajasthan fall under various seismic zones denoted as II, III, and IV depending on the severity.

25. Figure 2 illustrates the various hazard zones that captures the spatial extent of prominent
natural hazards in Rajasthan. The project road packages are overlaid on the base map in the said
figure. According to multi-hazard zonation, EPC-01 and EPC-02 located in Jodhpur and Nagaur
7 Disaster Management, Relief & Civil Defence Department
14 Appendix 13

districts lie in W&C_H EQ_L zone, meaning high wind and cyclone risks, and low earthquake
risks. EPC-03 is located in Bharatpur lies partly in W&C_H EQ_H zone indicating high wind and
cyclone damage and high earthquake risks and in W&C_H EQ_M zone indicating high wind and
cyclone damage risk and moderate earthquake risk. EPC-04 located in Banswara district lies in
W&C_M(8) EQ_L zone indicating moderate wind and cyclone risks and low earthquake risks.
Flood zones are not indicated in the above hazard zonation map probably because of lesser
spatial extent and impacts in Rajasthan.

Figure 2: Multi-Hazard Zones and Location of Project Road Packages

Source of Base Maps: Disaster Management, Relief & Civil Defence Department, Rajasthan;
http://www.dmrelief.rajasthan.gov.in/

26. Although Rajasthan is largely a desert state with many water deficit areas, yet there are
incidents of floods and there are flood prone areas in the districts of Ajmer, Barmer, Jodhpur, Pali,
Jalore, Sirohi, Udaipur, Chittogarh, Bundi, Kota, Jaipur, Jhalawar, Bharatpur, Baran, Alwar and
Sri Ganganagar. These flood prone regions spread across the basins and sub-basins of rivers
such as Banas, Banganga, Chambal, Ghaggar, Luni, Mahi, Sabi, Shekhawati, Sukli and West
Banas (Figure 3). Depending on the rainfall amounts in the catchments of these rivers, both river
floods and urban floods are prevalent in the State, and one cannot rule out highly localized river
flood risks on the project roads if located in flood areas in the districts of Bharatpur and Jodhpur.
 Appendix 13 15

Figure 3: Flood Prone Areas of Rajasthan

Source: RajRas; https://www.rajras.in/floods-in-rajasthan/

27. A general perspective of the levels of risks to natural hazards in the project districts as
presented in Figure 4 below are the products of a web-based Tool, ThinkHazard.8 The hazard
levels in the figure are based on published hazard data, provided by a range of private, academic,
and public organizations. This tool provides general perspectives of the hazards in a region but
susceptibility to many of the natural hazards such as floods, landslides, water scarcity and

Figure 4: Likelihood of Natural Hazards in the Project Districts

Source: ThinkHazard!

8 ThinkHazard!. Developed for informational purposes by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery
(GFDRR). Accessed on 10 November 2022 at https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/1506-india-rajasthan/
16 Appendix 13

wildfires, are highly localized and varies across landscapes depending on local topography and
distance from the waterway in case of river flooding, thus necessitating a study of the surrounding
landscape to help assess exposure and sensitivity to floods and landslide risks and or
interventions to be considered in project design.

28. The above figure indicates that all the project districts are highly vulnerable to risks of
extreme heat, wildfire and droughts. In terms of river flooding, the only district with high flooding
risk is Bharatpur, followed by Churu with medium risks, while the remaining are low risks. Medium
urban flooding risk is indicated for Bharatpur and low for the remaining except for Nagaur where
urban flooding risk is very low. Earthquake risks are medium in all project districts and in terms of
cyclone hazards low risks are indicated in all districts.
 Appendix 13 17

IV. CLIMATE, OBSERVED TRENDS AND PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

A. The Baseline Climate

29. Meteoblue-Data.org offers climate information on its website9 and the meteoblue climate
diagrams presented below are based on past 30 years of weather data and model simulations.
They give good indications of typical climate patterns and expected conditions (temperature,
precipitation). The simulated weather data have a spatial resolution of approximately 30 km and
do not reproduce all local weather effects, such as thunderstorms, local winds, or cyclones.

30. Figure 5(a) illustrates average monthly baseline information in terms of two important
climatic variables, viz. temperature and precipitation, for representative districts where the RSHIP
tranche 3 project roads are located. The "mean daily maximum" (solid red line) shows the
maximum temperature of an average day for every month for the project districts. Likewise, "mean
daily minimum" (solid blue line) shows the average minimum temperature. Hot days and cold
nights (dashed red and blue lines) show the average of the hottest day and coldest night of each
month of the last 30 years.

B. Observed Climate Trends

31. How climate has changed in the project corridors during the observed period 1979 – 2021
are depicted by anomalies in temperature and precipitation for each project districts as illustrated
in Figure 5(b). The data source used is ERA5, the fifth generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis
of the global climate, covering the time range from 1979 to 2021, with a spatial resolution of 30
km.

32. In the figure showing estimates of annual change in mean annual temperature, the dashed
blue line is the linear climate change trend, and the lower part of the graph shows the so called
warming stripes where each coloured stripe represents the average temperature for a year - blue
for colder and red for warmer years. One can see how climate change has already affected the
region during the past 40 years as is visible with increasing trends in mean annual air
temperatures in all the project districts. Note that climate change is not uniform and affects some
regions more than others.

33. In the same Figure 5(b) are the anomalies of mean annual total precipitation in the districts
and the dashed blue representing trend in annual precipitation indicates a fairly significant upward
trend in the project districts. In the lower part the graph shows the so-called precipitation stripes.
Each coloured stripe represents the total precipitation of a year - green for wetter and brown for
drier years. Here too, one can see how climate change has already affected the region during the
past 40 years as is visible with increasing trends in mean annual total precipitation in all the project
districts.

9 https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/historyclimate/climatemodelled/ratnagiri_india_1258338
https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/historyclimate/climatemodelled/katihar_india_1267480
18 Appendix 13

Figure 5: Baseline (current) Climate and Observed Trends in Project Districts

(a) Baseline (b) Observed Trends (1979 – 2021)

Average Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Mean Annual Temperature Trend (oC), and
(Modelled) in Project Districts Mean Yearly Precipitation Change (mm)

Jodhpur: 26.27°N 73.01°E, 237m asl

Nagaur: 27.2°N 73.73°E, 305m asl

Churu: 28.3°N 74.97°E, 291m asl

Bharatpur: 27.22°N 77.49°E, 180m asl

 Appendix 13 19

Figure 5: Baseline (current) Climate and Observed Trends in Project Districts

Banswara: 23.54°N 74.44°E, 227m asl

Source: Meteoblue-Data.org

C. Future Climate Projections for Rajasthan

34. The future projections for the State of Rajasthan as outlined here are those obtained from
Climate Change Knowledge Portal 10 (CCKP) developed by the World Bank where different
projected climatology and emission scenarios or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are
considered. In the CCKP page, projection data are presented as multi-model ensembles, that
represent the range and distribution of the most plausible projected outcomes of change in the
climate system for a selected SSP.

35. The CCKP climate projection provides modelled data from the global climate model
compilations of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs), overseen by the World
Climate Research Program. Data presented are CMIP6, derived from the sixth phase of the
CMIPs that form the data foundation of the IPCC Assessment Reports. CMIP6 supports the
IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. 11 Projection data are presented at a 1.0º x 1.0º (100km x
100km) resolution.

36. The SSPs are new climate change scenarios introduced recently in the IPCC Sixth
Assessment Report and are meant to provide insight into future climates based on defined
emissions, mitigation efforts, and development paths. The SSP scenarios depend on how quickly
humans curb greenhouse gas emissions and that depends on socioeconomic changes in areas
such as population, urban density, education, land use and wealth. For example, a rise in
population is assumed to lead to higher demand for fossil fuels and water resources. Education

10 https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org
11 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report
20 Appendix 13

can affect the rate of technology developments. Emissions increase when land is converted from
forest to agricultural land. The SSP number x is combined with the expected radiative forcing
(RCP) y.z to arrive at a scenario SSPx-y.z as given in Table 3.

Table 3: Shared Economic Pathways (SSPs)

Estimated Warming, Very Likely
0
C Range, 0C
SSP # Scenario (Likelihood)
(2041– (2081–
(2081–2100)
2060) 2100)
very low GHG emissions:
SSP1-1.9 1.6 1.4 1.0 - 1.8
CO2 emissions cut to net zero around 2050
low GHG emissions:
SSP1-2.6 1.7 1.8 1.3 – 2.4
CO2 emissions cut to net zero around 2075
intermediate GHG emissions (likely):
CO2 emissions around current levels until
SSP2-4.5 2.0 2.7 2.1 – 3.5
2050, then falling but not reaching net zero by
2100
high GHG emissions (unlikely):
SSP3-7.0 2.1 3.6 2.8 – 4.6
CO2 emissions double by 2100
very high GHG emissions (highly unlikely):
SSP5-8.5 2.4 4.4 3.3 – 5.7
CO2 emissions triple by 2075
Source: wikipedia.org. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

37. SSP1-1.9 is IPCC’s most optimistic scenario that describes a world where global CO2
emissions are cut to net zero around 2050. Societies switch to more sustainable practices, with
focus shifting from economic growth to overall well-being with higher investments in education
and health and fall in inequality. This first scenario is the only one that meets the Paris
Agreement’s goal of keeping global warming to around 1.50C above preindustrial temperatures,
with warming hitting 1.50C but then dipping back down and stabilizing around 1.40C by the end of
the century.

38. SSP5-8.5 is the worst-case scenario where CO2 emissions levels roughly double by 2050.
The global economy grows quickly, but this growth is fuelled by exploiting fossil fuels and energy-
intensive lifestyles. By 2100, the average global temperature is 4.40C higher.

39. In every scenario, warming continues and how extreme the weather might get depends
on which path the world opts to take. There is no telling which scenario is most likely -- that will
depend on many complicated factors including government policies, but it does show how choices
today will affect the future.

40. The CCKP page offers a selection of the most popular climate indicators under various
SSP scenarios presented through multi-model ensembles. To understand the heat risks from
extreme heat conditions in Rajasthan, two temperature indicators viz. (i) projected average single-
day maximum temperature, Tmax and (ii) projected days with heat index >350C for SSP2-4.5, an
intermediate emissions scenario is selected and reproduced in Table 4. The heat index is a
measure of apparent temperature that includes the influence of atmospheric moisture that gives
insight into annual heat risks and changing annual heat risks over time.
 Appendix 13 21

Table 4: Projections of Selected Temperature Indicators (Ref. Period 1995-2014)

2020-2039 2040-2059 2060-2079 2080-2099
(a) Projected Average Single-day Maximum of Daily Maximum Temperatures, 0C
Scenarios
50th percentile, median
(10th to 90th percentile range)
46.88 47.31 48.33 48.53
SSP2-4.5
(44.41 – 50.15) (44.96 - 50.33) (45.80 – 51.66) (47.17 - 52.13)
(b) Projected Hot Days with Heat Index, Tmax >350C, days
50th percentile, median
(10th to 90th percentile range)
179.78 189.06 197.86 201.89
SSP2-4.5
(140.67 – 207.65) (150.37 – 220.18) (158.68 – 229.20) (159.42 – 231.56)
Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

41. In terms of rainfall in Rajasthan, two precipitation indicators viz. (i) projected average
largest 1-day precipitation and (ii) projected days with Precipitation >20 mm for SSP2-4.5, an
intermediate emissions scenario and SSP3-7.0, a high emissions scenario are selected and
reproduced in Table 5.

Table 5: Projections of Selected Precipitation Indicators (Ref. Period 1995-2014)

2020-2039 2040-2059 2060-2079 2080-2099
Projected Average Largest 1-day Precipitation, mm
Scenarios
50th percentile, median
(10th to 90th percentile range)
22.7 25.36 23.96 26.48
SSP2-4.5
(8.22 – 57.36) (7.80 - 60.09) (7.88 – 60.84) (9.42 – 64.14)
Projected Days with Precipitation >20 mm, days
50th percentile., median
(10th to 90th percentile range)
1.12 1.42 1.41 1.67
SSP2-4.5
(0.01 – 5.18) (0.02 – 5.09) (-0.01 – 5.87) (0.08 – 5.80)
Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

D. Summary of Climate and Projections for Rajasthan

42. The mean daily maximum temperatures during pre-monsoon months of March, April and
May as depicted in Figure 5(a) show that the five project districts regularly experience high
maximum temperatures ranging from 42°C to 45°C and that climate change is expected to push
average upper extreme temperatures above 45°C on a regular basis (Table 4a). The observed
mean annual temperature trend between from 1979 to 2021 for the project districts is positive
indicating that the project districts have become warmer over time due to climate change. (Figure
5(b)). Moreover, the number of extreme hot days per year is projected to increase on average
from 179 days to 202 days in successive decades in the State of Rajasthan (Table 4b).

43. The spatial distribution of monthly rainfall totals (Figure 5(a)) indicate that project districts
receive much higher rainfall during the months of July and August ranging from a monthly total of
around 60 mm in Jodhpur to a high of 145 mm in Bharatpur. The projections for average largest
1-day rainfall in the State (Figure 5a) are indicated to rise in 2050s then fall in 2070s, and so on
with similar observations in the number of days with precipitation >20mm (Figure 5b). The average
precipitation projections by climate models should be approached cautiously. There are about 40
different climate models within CMIP5 that provide estimates of precipitation changes in the
future.
22 Appendix 13

44. Unlike for temperature, where models show a general degree of agreement about future
regional changes, different models may have the same region becoming much wetter or much
drier in a warming world. Climate models are not precise at the moment and projections of future
average precipitation changes may become more consistent as models continue to improve.
However, an overwhelming number of climate literatures assert that more frequent heavy to
extreme precipitation events can be expected with climate change.
 Appendix 13 23

V. CLIMATE RISKS AND OUTLOOKS ON ADAPTATION

A. General

45. Feasibility studies of RSHIP tranche 3 roads have been conducted in line with the State’s
vision to achieve long-term serviceability and economic benefits from improved road transport
systems in Rajasthan. The subject of adaptation is not new as road assets sensitive to climate
and other natural hazards are designed to withstand some variation of climate and associated
risks. As to how and when climate change will modify or alter the risk levels or what should be the
acceptable level of risk applicable to the service life of a structure are challenging issues,
nonetheless field investigations, surveys and tests on the existing roads provide evidence
required to improve upon current structural and geometrical deficiencies. This observation-based
procedure can significantly reduce the extent of current risks and can help to achieve a certain
degree of resilience against impending risks arising from climate change. Road infrastructure
assets such as, bridges and culverts, road drainages, embankments and pavements, slope
protection and flood protection work, etc. all of which by virtue of their exposure are sensitive to
climate change require attention during the initial design stage. The feasibility studies have
envisaged the following adaptive responses.

B. Risks and Vulnerabilities

46. Embankment and subgrades. The earthen embankment material that is laid and
compacted to raise the grade line of road above the original ground level according to the
designed vertical alignment of the road serves the functions of keeping subgrade above ground
water table and preventing damage of pavement from the surface and capillary water. The
characteristics of embankment soils, subgrade materials for base courses and bitumen binders
determine structural strength, impact of climate and durability aspects of the road pavement.
Embankment failure can be significant in terms of costs with climate change.

47. Many of the causes of failed embankments and pavements is due to high rainfall, flowing
water, standing water, high groundwater and excessive soil moisture that influences the behaviour
and the structural performance of embankments by reducing its resilience, thereby becoming
susceptible to shear rupture and failure. Insufficient embankment heights can subject the
subgrade of pavements to exposure to saturation by water and that impacts the load carrying
capacity of the subgrade and ultimately the strength of pavement layers laid over the subgrade.
For roads exposed to seasonal flooding or located in floodplains of rivers and in areas susceptible
to water logging, it is recommended that the embankment be raised so that the bottom of the
subgrade is above the highest recorded flood level in the area.

48. Unlike other parts of India that are extensively impacted by rainfall induced risks,
Rajasthan presents an altogether different scenario by virtue of its predominantly arid climate.
The project roads EPC 01and EPC 02 located in the districts of Jodhpur, Nagaur, and Churu lie
in hot desert and hot semi-arid regions (Figure 1) where rainfall is scant. As such, risks of
embankment and pavement failures due to standing water, high groundwater and excessive soil
moisture is extremely low. The project roads EPC 03 and EPC 04 located in the eastern plains
region of Rajasthan with hot summer Mediterranean climate receive comparatively higher rainfalls
(Figure 4), but risks of embankment and pavement failures in general is low.

49. Road embankments and pavement problems are associated with construction of roads on
or with certain types of soils where temperature triggers volume changes and pore pressure
variations of soils saturated with water. Temperatures at all depths below the pavement
24 Appendix 13

bituminous layer are significantly greater than under natural ground surfaces and that influences
base layer sub-grade soils associated with expansive natural characteristics to shrink during dry
seasons and expand dramatically when wet thus impacting the strength and performance as road
construction material. Such problematic soils can be treated usually by mixing with lime or cement
or fly ash to retard water adsorption and reduce swell characteristics.

50. Required tests carried out on soils for classification & mechanical characteristics at sub-
grade depths of existing road as well as soils of identified borrow areas for evaluation of
strengthening and or treatment requirements for flexible road pavement have not indicated any
additional measures for volume changes due to ingress of water. The sandy soils in the borrow
areas are a mix of gravel, sand, silt, and clay with sand occupying on average over 50% of
composition and is not significantly different in characteristics, composition and strength from
those investigated under the existing road. Treatments of soils in the road projects for improving
mechanical characteristics and reducing swell potential of soils are not indicated in the feasibility
reports.

51. Pavements. Flexible pavements are particularly vulnerable to extreme high temperatures
that can cause a decrease in binder viscosity, potentially aggravating rutting (i.e., permanent
deformation), roughness, and cracking. Projected increases in both mean as well as extreme high
temperatures are main climatic concerns for flexible pavements whereby UV radiation are bound
to cause excessive hardening of the binder bitumen of pavement surface. Hotter weather will
speed up oxidation process and make the binder material more vulnerable to cracking and cooler
diurnal temperatures will generate thermal tensile stresses that cause crack initiation and
propagation. Once cracks on road surfaces develop, water enters through the pavement layers
causing pavements to lose structural strength and eventual failures.

52. With advances in manufacturing of bitumen in India, the Indian standard IS 73:2013
classifies four grades of bitumen based on viscosity at 600C, and recommends applicability as
pavement binder material on the basis of maximum air temperature as follows: VG10 for <30 0C,
VG20 for 300 to 380C, VG30 for 380 to 450C and VG40 for >450C. A variety of additives are now
used for modification of bitumen with advantages as: (a) lower susceptibility to temperature
variations, (b) higher resistance to deformation/wear and tear, (c) better adhesion between
aggregates and binder, (d) increase in fatigue life, (e) resistance to reflective cracking, and (f)
better age resistance properties. Indian manufacturers now provide various types of modified
bitumen such as: (i) Crumb Rubber Modified Bitumen (CRMB), (ii) Natural Rubber Modified
Bitumen (NRMB), (iii) Polymer Modified Bitumen (PMB), and (iv) Bitumen Emulsions.12

53. The pavement condition surveys conducted during the feasibility studies consisted of
observations and recording of the various wear and tear distresses like cracks, potholes, rutting,
ravelling etc of the existing carriageway, pavement shoulders and embankments. Pavement
investigations also included pavement composition and sub-grade characteristics and strength,
including sub soil characteristics. These observations along with tests and analysis formed the
basis for the proposed new pavement design and to sustain the adopted design life of 15 years
the expected changes in climate would have factored in while choosing the pavement materials
and pavement thicknesses.

54. Asphalt-layer thickness can prolong service ability of roads, but the bitumen that is used
to bind the stone aggregate and other mix design components must have the ability to meet the
specifications that take into account changes in temperature. The grade of bitumen proposed as

12 Hindusthan Petroleum Corporation Ltd, Handbook of Bitumen

 Appendix 13 25

the binder material for flexible pavements in the project roads is VG30 which can meet protracted
extreme high temperatures in the range of 380C to 450C.

55. While flexible pavement is the generally preferred choice in road construction because of
its low initial cost, rigid pavement can be prudently considered as far better as an alternative to
flexible pavement in waterlogged areas. This is because rigid pavement spreads load over a
considerable area of subgrade and loss of stiffness of subgrade due to water has little influence
on the structural capacity of a rigid pavement. Fortunately, none of the project roads are said to
run through waterlogged areas.

56. As road pavements are directly exposed to solar radiation, rigid pavements exhibit higher
albedo or how much solar energy is reflected by a material as compared to asphalt pavement.
Pavements with lower albedo such as asphalt pavement tend to absorb more solar energy,
resulting in higher pavement temperatures, whereas pavements with higher albedo typically
absorb less solar energy, resulting in cooler pavement temperatures. Temperature-related
asphalt pavement distresses such as rutting, and fatigue are influenced by pavement albedo.
Heat island phenomenon that usually occur in congested urban settlements can be alleviated
from road pavements with higher albedo. In RSHIP tranche 3, rigid pavement has been proposed
at locations of human settlements and at toll plazas.

57. Road drainage. Pressures on road drainage systems are expected to increase with
rainfall extremes accelerated by climate change. A functioning drainage system for proper
collection, removal, and disposal of surface as well as sub-surface water is necessary to help
maintain structural soundness and durability, functional efficiency and safety of the road and will
also help reduce maintenance costs. Improvements in surface drainage design that prevents /
reduces flow of surface water to the shoulders or any other layers of the road pavement and sub-
surface drainage in which the sub-soil water from underside of road pavement is collected and
removed are necessary features.

58. Bridges. Bridges are subjected to daily, seasonal, and yearly repeated cycles of heating
and cooling induced by solar radiation and surrounding air. Temperatures affects bridges with
expansion / contraction cycles due to temperatures changes, and impacts bearings and
expansions joints usually used to accommodate movements. These movements in the bridge
may seem initially insignificant, but with pervasive changes induced by extreme heat the bridge
may eventually start to deform and fail.

59. Bridges and culverts must allow water – whether from rivers and streams, or storm events
- to pass underneath without disrupting the flow of traffic. Structures built in river environments
are influenced by many factors and principally by rainfall-runoff processes where volume and rate
of flow are influenced by changes in the climatic conditions and physical alterations in the natural
flow regime. Excessive runoffs affecting river bridges are the degradation of the riverbed,
excessive scouring around bridge piers and abutments, backwatering effect, and possibility of
overtopping due to excessive constriction at bridge openings.

60. Many of the bridges in Rajasthan may have been designed and installed many years ago
and may no longer adequately accommodate the movement of floodwaters and debris necessary
during storm and flood events. Climate change is expected to increase the current risk levels, and
this introduces new challenges in design standards and guidelines for bridges and culverts having
the capacity to move large volumes of water through the system, preventing any backup of
floodwater and spill over onto adjacent properties.
26 Appendix 13

61. River training and protection. The morphology, i.e., changes in river forms in plan and
cross-sections resulting from processes of erosion and sedimentation of a river, is a strong
determinant of flow, and can influence intensification or mitigation of flood waves and torrents. At
the same time, when rivers flow in an alluvial plain they often become meandered or braided, and
at times of flood, this morphology leads to excessive bank cutting which can destroy agricultural
land, human settlements, and road transport assets. River training and protection works are
important measures in the prevention and mitigation of flash floods and general flood control, as
well as ensuring safe passage of a flood waters under a bridge.

62. Depending on site conditions and acuteness of riverbed attrition and impacts on bridges
and adjoining areas, hard adaptation measures such as the following are important considerations
under climate change. Activities include suitable combinations of: (a) transversal protection
structures installed perpendicular to the water course in order to reduce water velocity and protect
the riverbed and banks from erosion, and (b) longitudinal protection structures installed on
riverbanks parallel to the river course with the aim of protecting adjoining areas from inundation,
erosion, and river meandering.

63. Realignment and/or bypasses. State highways are often the main street in small and
medium-sized urban communities and are usually prone to traffic congestion with unacceptable
impacts such as noise, fumes, and vibration. In these situations, a bypass would significantly
reduce traffic congestion and pollution, and besides can avoid urban flooding that afflict many
urban settlements during the rainy season. Also, a bypass can be advantageous to avoid hazard
prone areas such as an area with persistent flooding or in unstable areas marked by landslides,
rockslides and the like making it necessary to realign the road to pass through safer and stable
areas without causing serious environmental damages.

64. Road water harvesting. A new type of road water management particularly useful in arid
climates is to harvest concentrated water along roads and road catchments during bouts of
rainfall. Harvesting prevents runoff water speeding down the drains, quickly concentrating into
erosion gullies and damaging road pavements and embankment slopes. Using a combination of
techniques to channel water from roads into retention and/or infiltration areas, benefits include
groundwater recharge, landscape restoration, increased road infrastructure longevity, and
increased water availability for agricultural and domestic use.
 Appendix 13 27

VI. ADAPTATION MEASURES AND COSTS

A. Climate Change Adaptation Features of RSHIP Tranche 3 Project Roads

65. The feasibility studies of RSHIP Tranche 3 roads have envisaged adaptive responses that
help improve and alleviate climate change risks and vulnerabilities. Under climate change
considerations, the total cost of an investment project will increase by some amount due to
additional expenses with respect to a baseline to produce an improved output that results in
adaptation and or mitigation of climate change impacts. A baseline is a business-as-usual (BAU)
scenario referring to the cost of project that is implemented without climate change
considerations. The additional expenses are the incremental cost or simply the difference
between the full cost of an activity or output prompted by climate change needs and the baseline
cost of an activity or output that does not result in adaptation and or mitigation needs of climate
change.

66. Bridges. Based on desktop hydrological and hydraulics evaluations and site
reconnaissance, the feasibility studies have proposed upgradation / improvement works for
bridges in terms of structural design for service and improved flood designs for higher discharge
capacities. The design flood frequency has adopted an anticipated 100-year return-period flood
with freeboard ranging from 0.6m to 1.5m depending on the estimated flood discharge.
Information on high flood level (HFL), low water levels (LWL), discharge velocity etc. were
collected from available past records, local inquiries and visible signs on the structural
components and embankments. Local inquiries were also made with regard to the road sections
getting overtopped during heavy rains. The bridge structure/components i.e., bearings and
expansion joints, are proposed to be designed for a diurnal temperature variation of + 250C
considering extreme climate.

67. The proposed work activities and quantities for bridges under RSHIP3 as indicated in
Table 6 are described as: (i) reconstruction, entailing dismantling of an existing bridge and
reconstruction with improved and updated hydrological standards, and (ii) converted, in which a
minor bridge is to be upgraded and reconstructed as a major bridge, (iii) repair / retain, where an
existing bridge is repaired and retained with no improvements in flood conveyance capacity, (iv)
widen, where an existing bridge is widened to accommodate double-laning or four-laning or
widened to improve flood conveyance capacity, and (v) new (additional) bridges deemed
necessary in flood prone zones or a new bridge arising due to realignment of road.

68. The climate change adaptation cost shown in Table 6 is the sum of full cost of bridge
improvement works estimated for activities such as reconstruction, conversion and new
construction and excludes costs of activities such as repair / retain, widen, and abandon. The
concept to take full cost as climate incremental cost for those specific activities was agreed during
the discussions with RPWD on 8 April 2022. There are misapprehensions regarding definition of
baseline scenarios and estimation of baseline costs such as: (a) the understanding / structuring
of what is an acceptable baseline scenario for estimating their costs in the absence of a proper
or accepted or consistent methodology(s) or a policy framework and or lack of data, (b) some of
the structures have outlived their useful service lives with no residual value.
28 Appendix 13

Table 6: Improvement of Bridges

CC = climate change; EPC = engineering, procurement, and construction

Source: Public Works Department, Government of Rajasthan.

69. Culverts. A similar approach akin to bridges has been adopted in the design of culverts
as shown in Table 7. The estimate of climate change adaptation cost bears the same connotation
as described for bridges earlier. One notable feature is the proposal of 10 new culverts in EPC 02
where in the existing alignment there is none and increases in number of culverts per unit length
of road in all other EPCs.

Table 7: Improvement of Culverts

CC = climate change; EPC = engineering, procurement, and construction

Source: Public Works Department, Government of Rajasthan.

70. Other climate resilient activities and or interventions are indicated in Table 8.

Table 8: Other Improvement Works

Estimated Cost in
Proposed Improvement Works, Activities and/or Millions
Items Interventions INR USD
Feasibility studies have noted that existing roads are largely
devoid of side drains
Road Drains - Covered RCC drains in built-up urban sections and earth 579.03 7.05
drains in rural sections on both sides for entire project road
lengths in all EPC packages.
Thickness of sub-base and base layers proposed for a
minimum design period of 15 years and the bituminous
Pavement surfacing for a minimum design period of 8 years. Sensitive to 367.26 4.47
temperature-related distresses such as rutting and fatigue; and
heat radiation from pavement surfaces
 Appendix 13 29

Estimated Cost in
Proposed Improvement Works, Activities and/or Millions
Items Interventions INR USD
- Flexible pavement: proposed asphalt binder material
bitumen grade VG30 for maximum air temperature up to
450C; incremental climate change cost not computed for
binder bitumen as viscosity graded bitumens have been in
use since 2013
- Rigid concrete pavement in built-up areas has higher
albedo compared to asphalt pavement; this reduces heat
island effects
Embankment improvements in terms of heights above original
ground level generally needed in flood prone areas
Embankments - construction of high embankments (> 3m, < 6m) for a total 183.10 2.23
length of 4.475 km in at least three locations in EPC 04
have been identified in the feasibility studies
Provides slope stability of embankment against settlements,
slip failures; reduction of erosion and washouts
Embankment
- Retaining / toe protections works
Slope 48.43 0.59
- Embankments less than 3m is proposed to be turfed, stone
Protection
pitching is proposed for embankment having height more
than 3 meters
Protection of adjoining areas from inundation and erosion
River
envisaged in EPC 01 and 04 107.18 1.30
Protection
- Retaining walls proposed
Reduce unacceptable impacts such as noise, fumes, and
Realignment / vibration created by traffic in roads passing through small and
189.89 2.31
Bypasses medium-sized urban communities. Besides can reduce / avoid
urban flooding
Concentrated water along roads and road catchment can be
harvested; simple structures on and along the road such as
Water
trenches, mitre-drains, cross-culverts, storage ponds and or a 81.91 1.00
harvesting
combination of techniques to channel water from roads into
retention and/or infiltration areas

B. Summary Costs of Climate Change Adaptation Measures

71. Table 8 presents a summary of the project’s total climate change adaptation and mitigation
costs according to work items where climate adaptation and mitigation features are proposed in
the feasibility studies of the project roads. The overall climate change adaptation and mitigation
cost for all packages stands at ₹1,848.36 million, which represents about 26.8% of the total civil
works cost of ₹6,890.93 million.
30 Appendix 13

Table 8 Summary of RSHIP Tranche 3 Climate Change Adaptation Costs

Source: Public Works Department, Government of Rajasthan.

72. Figure 6 compares the total cost of each of the EPCs in terms of costs of climate change
adaptation / mitigation measures alongside the costs of civil works where no adaptation measures
are envisaged, the latter referred here as the business-as-usual or BAU. The proportion of climate
change adaptation cost expressed as percentage of total civil works cost for each EPC package
ranges from 20.0% (EPC 02) to 42.69% (EPC 04).

Figure 6. Comparison Total Civil Works Cost

Source: Public Works Department, Government of Rajasthan.

 Appendix 13 31

73. Figure 7 shows the breakup of costs of work items and activities of the total RSHIP tranche
3 project roads where climate change adaptation and/or mitigation measures have been
envisaged in the feasibility studies. The percentages given in the figure represent the proportion
of those activities against the estimated total climate cost of ₹1,848.36 million.

Figure 7: Proportions of Climate Change Adaptation Costs according to

Improvement Activities

Source: Public Works Department, Government of Rajasthan.

C. Climate Mitigation

74. Tree plantation. The Indian Standards IRC: SP21-2009 provides the necessary
guidelines for both hard and soft landscaping and tree plantation to counter the adverse
consequences of road development on the environment. Roadside tree planting and roadside
forest provides multiple benefits such as wind break and dust control, shade, beautification,
improved soil stabilization and reduced soil erosion. For the purpose of this assessment, the
primary benefit of afforestation considered under this project is carbon sequestration.

75. A total of 9,606 trees at minimum 30 cm girth at breast height has been enumerated for
felling under this project. The compensatory afforestation ratio adopted is 1:3 with a 70% survival
rate. The activity will result to at least 19,212 additional mature trees which are estimated to
sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide at an average of 22 kg/year of CO2 per mature tree per
year.13 Considering these, the activity will contribute a conservative estimate of 295.86 tons/year
of CO2 for a total cost of ₹93.08 million ($1.13 million).

13 Arbor Day Foundation. Tree Facts.

32 Appendix 13

76. Improvement of road condition and capacity. The project’s main objective is to improve
road connectivity in the state of Rajasthan by enhancing the capacity and road condition of state
highways and major district roads. As co-benefit of the project, better road conditions allow road
users to travel at faster speeds and reduce congestion, which results in less fuel consumption
and GHG emission. The better road conditions also improve the vehicle operating status which
leads to less GHG emission. However, as road construction activity is normally not recognized as
a mitigation activity, no mitigation finance is claimed and only GHG emission reduction is claimed
as the co-benefit. GHG emissions reduction of 65,513 tCO2e was derived using Transport
Emissions Evaluations Model for Projects (TEEMP). Details are in Chapter VI of Appendix 9,
Initial Environmental Examination.