Prepared

Introduction
by
John Mudumbi (PhD)
to Faculty of Engineering & the Built Environment

Environmental Department of Civil Engineering & Geomatics

Engineering CPUT: Bellville Campus

Room 1.21
ABC Building
(ENM260S) Tel: +27 (0) 21 959 6674
Email: MudumbiJ@cput.ac.za

1
 ENM260S

UNIT4:
Environmental Risk Assessment
 Defining Key
Concepts
• Environment: The surroundings or
conditions in which a person, animal or
plant lives or operates.

• Risk : Probability of any adverse effect

occurring.

• Environmental Risk Assessment : An ERA

is a process of predicting whether there
may be a risk of adverse effects on the
environment caused human activities.
 Defining Key Concepts, cont.…
• Environmental Risk: is the “actual or
potential threat of adverse effects on
living organisms and the environment by
effluents, emissions, wastes, resource
depletion, etc., arising out of human
activities.”

• Environmental hazards cause social,

environmental and economic harm or
damages at local, regional or global
scales.

• It is important to recognize and

understand these risks in order to
protect human society and ecosystems.
Defining Key Concepts, cont.…

• Hazard and Risk: What's the

difference?
• https://youtu.be/_GwVTdsnN1E

• Man-made hazards - created by

humans due to human intent,
negligence, or error, such as crime,
terrorism, war (sociological hazards),
industrial hazards, power outage,
hazardous materials (technological
hazards).

• Natural hazards - caused by a natural

process with a negative effect on
people or the environment, such as
volcanoes, floods, earthquakes.
Defining Key Concepts, cont.…

• Many natural and man-made

hazards are interrelated (e.g.,
earthquakes may cause tsunamis
which in turn damage nuclear
power plants to release
radioactive waste).
 Environmental Hazards
1) Hazardous material - any
material that’s toxic & has the
potential to cause harm to humans,
animals, or the environment.
• Two toxic effect types:
• Carcinogenic - promotes or induces
tumors with uncontrolled
abnormal growth and division of
cells
• Non-carcinogenic - cause
toxicological responses without
carcinogenic effects, such as organ
damage, neurological damage,
learning difficulties, etc.
 Environmental Hazards, cont…

2) Natural hazards
• Geological
• – earthquakes,
landslides, avalanche,
volcanic eruptions
• Hydro-meteorological
• – floods, droughts,
hurricanes, heat waves
Risk characterization

• It is the process of estimating the incidence

of a health effect under the various
conditions of human exposure described in
the exposure assessment.

• The results of risk characterization are used

to identify potential options that are then
evaluated in terms of expected public
health, economic, social, and political
consequences
 Risk characterization, cont…

• Quantitative risk characterization:

• Quantitative characterization involves the
calculation of a simple risk ratio
(PEC/PNEC):
• That is, the predicted environmental
concentration is compared to the
predicted concentration at which no
effects on organisms in the
compartment will occur.
 Risk characterization, cont…

• Predicted No-Effect Concentration (PNEC)

is the concentration of a substance in any
environment below which adverse effects
will most likely not occur during long term
or short-term exposure.
• In environmental risk assessment, PNECs
will be compared to actual or predicted
environmental concentration (PEC) to
determine if the risk of a substance is
acceptable or not.
• If PEC/PNECs <1, the risk is acceptable.
 Risk characterization, cont…
• Predicted No-Effect Concentration
(PNEC) Example - Acetone
• According to ChemSafetyPRO (2021),
the PNEC-fresh water of acetone is
10.6mg/L. That means that if the
concentration of acetone present in
fresh water (pond/lake/river) is below
than 10.6mg/L, the acetone will
unlikely cause adverse effects to the
aquatic environment.
• This value is not set randomly.
• There is a systematic and scientific way
to derive it.
Environmental Hazards, cont…
Three major exposure
pathways:

• Ingestion
• Inhalation
• Dermal contact
Risk Calculations

• Risk is a function of hazard and its exposure expressed as:

• Risk is the possibility of harm based on hazard and

exposure.
• Hazard refers to the inherent properties that make
a substance able to cause a risk.
• A hazard doesn't become a risk unless you are exposed to
it.
• And, if you are exposed, the exposure has to be at a
level that might do harm.
 Risk Calculations: Carcinogenic
• Risk due to harmful carcinogenic chemicals is expressed as:

• Risk = the probability of a person to suffer from the adverse

effects of the hazards (e.g., to develop cancer due to exposure
to carcinogens),
• Risk per unit dose (aka cancer slope factor) = the harm caused
by a unit exposure of a hazardous material (i.e., how strong
the chemical is harmful),
• Exposed dose = the contact of a human and the chemical
(expressed as dosage and duration).
• Cancer slope factors are used to estimate the risk of cancer
associated with exposure to a carcinogenic or potentially
carcinogenic substance NOT THE SEVERITY OF CANCER
 10-6
• 10-6 lifetime cancer risk means that there is one
additional case of cancer during a lifetime in a
population of a million persons.
• For example, an 10-6 increased cancer risk
represents an increased lifetime risk of 1 in
1,000,000 for developing cancer.
• For carcinogenicity, the probability of an
individual developing cancer over a lifetime is
estimated by multiplying the cancer slope factor
(mg/kg/day) for the substance by the chronic
(70-year average) daily intake (mg/kg-day).
• Calculate the risk if exposed dose of Benzene has
been determined to be: 1.5 x 10ˉ²mg/kg-dˉ¹
• (0.000825)
• If the risk is higher than the specified probability, it
is considered not acceptable (e.g., >10-6).
• 0.000825>0.000001 therefore unacceptable
Risk Calculations: non-carcinogenic
• The approach taken for non-carcinogenic
compounds considers the severity of the toxic
response to increase with dose above a certain
threshold dose, called the Reference Dose, and
below this threshold there is no toxic effect.
• The severity of the toxic response is represented by
the Hazard Quotient, HQi (unitless), which is the
ratio of the ingested dose to the Reference Dose
• Ratio < 1 safe
Example: Workers have been exposed to 0.03 mg/kg/d Fluorene
Calculate the RISK associated with exposure.
=0.75<1.0 therefore safe
 Risk Calculations: natural hazards
• For the risk (a.k.a. expected loss) linked with natural hazards (e.g.,
floods), it is defined as:

Example 1:
a) Calculate the risk (expected loss) if there is a 5%
chance of flooding causing R1mil worth of
damage.
b) Calculate the risk (expected loss) if there is a 1
% chance of flooding causing R500 000 worth
of damage.
a)Risk value R50 000
b)Risk value R5 000
 Risk Perception
How past experiences determine future decisions and actions.
What is Perception?
Perceive: “to become aware of, know, or identify by means of the senses”
(dictionary.com)

Perception: “an interpretation or impression; an opinion or belief”

(yourdictionary.com)
Examples of Perceiving
Example of Different Perceptions
Defining Risk Perception
“Risk perception is a judgment of the adverse consequences of a particular hazard
and can be made by an individual, a group of people, or society”
(Janmaimool and Watanabe, 2014)
Importance of Risk Perception

“Some find certain events or situations

unacceptably risky and will do their utmost
to avoid being involved, while to others the
same events may offer exhilaration and
thrills that stimulate their whole purpose
in living. There may even be others to
whom the particular event is a non-issue,
something to be totally ignored.”
(Young, 1998)
Key Factors in Risk Perception
Perceived control.
➢Do people believe that they can control the situation?
(Janmaimool and Watanabe, 2014)
Key Factors in Risk Perception

Previous experiences.
➢Have people handled similar
risks in the past?
(Janmaimool and Watanabe, 2014)
Key Factors in Risk Perception

Family concerns.
➢People in larger families usually consider the risk of
harmful impacts to be higher due to their concern for
familial safety
(Janmaimool and Watanabe, 2014)
Key Factors in Risk Perception
Analytical way of thinking.
➢As individuals or as a group, people will have their own judgements of the
probability of a hazard occurring, probability of negative impacts, severity of
the impacts.
(Janmaimool and Watanabe, 2014)
Key Factors in Risk Perception

Trust.
➢People’s sense of trust in their
government, hazard experts, and
family affects the way they receive
risk messages and the decisions
made.
(Bronfman et al., 2015)
Key Factors in Risk Perception

The type of hazard

➢Some populations expect certain hazards to occur, thus
making it predictable. Unforeseen hazards are more
difficult for that population to adjust to.
(Ho et al., 2008)
➢People are more concerned about the severity of
negative impacts, not how likely the impacts are to
occur.
(Janmaimool and Watanabe, 2014)
 of
hazard occurring

Basic
Conceptual
Model

Previous experiences

(Janmaimool and Watanabe, 2014)

Multi-Level
Conceptual
Model

(Mañez et al., 2016)

The Levee Effect

Myth: people living in flood zones believe that risk has been
eliminated once a barrier (levee, wall) has been constructed.

Reality: risk is never gone, chances of barrier failure exist

➢More people move into these areas assuming safety
➢Greater number of people now exposed → higher risk
(Buchecker et al., 2013)
Why Risk Perception Matters
Understanding risk perception
→ effective risk communication
→ better risk mitigation strategies
(Plapp and Werner, 2006)
RISK MANAGEMENT
APPROACHES TO, PROBLEMS WITH, AND EXAMPLES OF CONTROLLING RISK.
DEFINITION OF RISK MANAGEMENT

Risk management is a systematic approach to identify, assess, and

understand risk in order to guide further appropriate
management decisions and actions.
(Mañez et al., 2016)
PURPOSE OF RISK MANAGEMENT

“To minimize the potential harm of a risk event by implementing

strategies and actions to control and reduce risk”
(Mañez et al., 2016)
MANAGEMENT AND PERCEPTION

Risk management is influenced by what is perceived to be risky.

▪ Risk perception guides opinions on risk and risk management
▪ Perception depends on past experiences, preparedness,
perceived control, etc.
(Mañez et al., 2016)
VARYING PERCEPTIONS – PUBLIC OR EXPERT?
 Experts consider probability, public prioritizes consequences
 Public may feel helpless to a hazard, perceiving it as high risk
 Public has first-hand experience for what is going on
 Experts disagree amongst themselves, public doesn’t know
which expert to believe
(Sjöberg, 1999)
APPROACHES TO MANAGEMENT

1. Proactive
 Pre-disaster activities associated with reducing risk
 Developing mitigation strategies, spreading awareness, etc.

2. Reactive
 Post-disaster activities associated with reducing impacts
 Emergency relief, reconstruction, etc.
DISASTER MANAGEMENT

1. Prediction: identify the risk source and understand potential

impacts, take necessary action for mitigation
2. Warning: effectively provide information to those who are
exposed to a hazard so they can begin preparing
(Moe and Pathranarakul, 2006)
DISASTER MANAGEMENT

3. Emergency relief: provide assistance directly after a disaster

4. Rehabilitation: make decisions to restore/improve the living
conditions in a community, encouraging preparedness of
future disaster risk
(Moe and Pathranarakul, 2006)
DISASTER MANAGEMENT

5. Reconstruction: combination of all other steps

 Keep community informed about other potential risks
 Provide mitigation activities
 Emphasize preparedness
 Provide assistance to the community wherever needed

(Moe and Pathranarakul, 2006)

Relief

(Moe and Pathranarakul, 2006)

ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENT (ERM)

 Understand risk as it relates to an organization/company

 Broad framework for risk analysis and action
 Considers the entire range of risks associated with running an
organization (financial, operational, strategic, hazards, etc.)
 Promotes risk awareness and strategic decision-making
(Hoyt and Liebenberg, 2011)
BENEFITS OF ERM TO THE ORGANIZATION
 Decreasing volatility of stock price and earnings
 Reduce external capital cost
 Better understanding of risk activities
 Better resource allocation
 Improving capital efficiency
 Higher return on equity

(Hoyt and Liebenberg, 2011)

VALUE OF ERM

 Considers all risk avenues together, not individually

 ERM can analyze the relationship between risk sources
 Interdependencies between risk factors can be identified and managed
appropriately
 Allows for an organized risk profile that can be shared easily
(Hoyt and Liebenberg, 2011)
 RISK
COMMUNICATION
Facilitating effective messaging in times of disaster.
Risk Communication

■ Messages that convey a possible risky situation, such as upcoming

natural disasters
■ Challenges:
– Providing accurate information concisely and directly
– Not alarming individuals and/or causing uproar
– Cultural, education, and language barriers
 BARRIERS TO
COMMUNICATION
Barriers, part 1

■ Differences in perception
– Risk messages will be interpreted in various ways
■ Differences in receptivity
– People may believe a risk will not affect them in any way
■ Lack of coordination between government and public
– Governments make risk-related decisions based on experts’
opinions, but people in high-risk areas tend to have a better
understanding of the risk
(Janmaimool and Watanabe, 2014)
Barriers, part 2

■ Access to information
– Private companies or governments may choose to withhold
information from each other or the public, making it difficult to
conduct research and reach informed conclusions
■ Population doesn’t have a strong scientific background
– Messages may contain technical terms that are confusing
– Messages often don’t explain if/how these risks will affect people

(Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1998)

Barriers, part 3

■ Mass Media
– Reporters may not accurately convey risk messages accurately
due to lack of expertise in the hazard or the risk
– Media outlets may choose what information is necessary
■ Societal Characteristics
– Cultural factors (language differences, religious beliefs/laws, etc.)
must be considered when crafting effective messages

(Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1998)

10 STEPS FOR EFFECTIVE
COMMUNICATION
Effective Communication, part 1

1. Collect data regarding the risk

2. Understand the scientific basis of the risk
3. Understand the negative impacts that may occur
4. Understand public perception of the risk
– Surveys, interviews, and focus groups reveal perception
5. Expect varying reactions to the message

(Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1998)

(Fischhoff, 1995)
Effective Communication, part 2

6. Risk comparisons
– If similar risks have been faced before, risk comparison can be
effective
– Do not compare a new, unfamiliar risk to a previous risk faced
7. Understand the importance of emotional factors
– Using logic alone is not effective, an emotional appeal can be
convincing

(Food and Agriculture Organization

of the United Nations, 1998)
(Fischhoff, 1995)
Effective Communication,
part 3
8. Treat the public as a partner
– Describe the risk and impacts calmly, honestly, and in an
understandable way
9. Do not deny concerns
– Others’ concerns are legitimate and should be heard to facilitate
better decision-making
10.Collaborate with other trusted sources

(Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1998)

Effective Risk Communication:

■ Spreads accurate information, informing people of potential danger

■ Emphasizes concerns of risk
■ Encourages proper risk mitigation
■ Improves general safety
 Tutorial Unit 4 – Natural hazards
Another Earth tremor felt west of Johannesburg
• On the 30th of August 2023 @10pm, another Earth tremor was
felt in the west of Johannesburg. Quake monitors have placed it at
a magnitude of 3.2 on the Richter Scale. Communities including
Soweto, Roodepoort and Krugersdorp felt the quake. South Africa
has been reporting a number of tremors in recent months. In
June, this year (2023), a 4.4 magnitude earthquake was felt across
many parts of Gauteng but mostly in Boksburg.
• Describe possible consequences caused by this type of hazard in
terms of social, environmental and economic factors.

• 500 words