Department of Chemical Engineering

University of California, Santa Barbara

Ch.E. 132C. Statistical Methods in Chemical Engineering

The Famous Birthday Problem

In a room containing n persons, let P(n) be the probability that they
all have different birthdays. For what value of n, is P(n)=0.5?

Theoretical Probabilities:
• Number of distinct ways for n people to have different birthdays:
= (365)(364)(363) ... (365 - n + 1)
• Total number of ways = (365) n
• Thus,
(365)(364)(363) ... (365-n+1)
P(n) =
(365)n

Results:
n P(n) n P(n)
4 0.984 24 0.462
8 0.926 28 0.346
12 0.833 32 0.247
16 0.716 40 0.109
20 0.589 48 0.039
22 0.524 56 0.012
23 0.493 64 0.003

Conclusions: For n=23, P(n) ≈ 0.5. For n>32, the probability is

low (<0.25) that everyone has a different birthday. For n>60, you
can safely bet a handsome sum.