ABSTRACT INFORMATION | ORAL

Code: 411

Category: Groundwater, energy and climate change

Title: Saline interface scenarios due to climate change on the northwestern Yucatan coast

Author: Cesar Canul-Macario

Co-author: Paulo Salles

J. Antonio Hernandez-Espriu

Roger Pacheco Castro

 Background

Supply Wells
Rainfall
(<1 g/l TDS; Marine
(d)
OMS and forcings
Mexican

Regional discharge
norms)

Fig 1. Study area: Northwestern Yucatan coast (NWYC)

1. The study zone posses a coastal karstic aquifer and is highly vulnerable to saline intrusion (Canul-Macario, 2020).

2. Recent developments (tourism and industry) and fully dependent on continental imported groundwater supply.

3. Vulnerable to saline intrusion, condition to increase with climate change scenarios.

 Motivations, enhancement areas and objectives

Considering the full groundwater dependence in the northwestern Yucatan coast (NWYC), it is important to

understand the relationship between salinity and the aquifer hydrogeological forcings (recharge, regional

discharge and marine forcings). Furthermore, it is crucial to assess the future effects in the coastal aquifer due to

climate change to develop support information for politics related to aquifer management.

The main objective of this work is to assess the future effects on the aquifer salinity in the study zone due to

climate change, using a previously defined conceptual-numerical model and local and global sea-level rise and

recharge change scenarios.

 Methods
(b)
1. Conceptual model (a)
a. Literature review
b. Fieldwork
c. Hydrogeological characterization.
d. High frequency long-term data: pressure, temperature,
(c)
salinity, rainfall. Available on: (d)

http://ocse.mx/es/experimento/geohidrologia
e. Canul-Macario C, Salles P, Hernández-Espriu JA, Pacheco-
Castro R (2020) Empirical relationships of groundwater
head–salinity response to variations of sea level and
vertical recharge in coastal confined karst aquifers. Fig. 2 Fieldwork on Yucatan coast (NWYC). (a) well drilling. (b) loggers and climate

stations installation. (c) vertical salinity monitoring. (d) hydraulic aquifer test.
Hydrogeol J 28:1679–1694. doi: 10.1007/s10040-020-
02151-9
 Methods

2. Calibration-validation of numerical model

a. 2D numerical model (profile to the coast)
using SEAWAT.
b. Multiple conceptual models assessment
c. Including marine influence in piezometric
head and salinity.
d. Canul-Macario C, Salles P, Hernández-Espriu
JA, & Pacheco-Castro R (in press). Numerical
modelling of the saline interface in coastal
karstic aquifers within a conceptual model
uncertainty framework. Hydrogeology
Journal.
Fig 3. Numerical model implementation.
 Methods

3. Climate change scenarios

a. Sea level rise (Zavala-Hidalgo et al Baseline

2010; IPCC 2018).

b. Recharge reduction (Rodriguez-
Huerta 2020).
c. Indicators: Aquifer thickness Brackish-saltwater wedge
intrusión (BSWI)
depletion (ATD), aquifer salinity
Continent Coast
rise (ASR) and Brackish-saltwater
wedge intrusión (BSWI) (Canul-
Aquifer D Salinity
Macario et al. in progress). thickness (SAR)
depletion
d. Current (2020) vs near horizon (ATD)
(2040) and far horizon (2100) Freshwater < 1 g/l Brackish-saltwater >1 g/l
Fig 4. Climate change scenarios assessment
 Results: Climate change scenarios
1 g/l Uncertainties Mangrove Coastal water supply
TDS
Supply Supply Supply
Coast (P5) Coast (P5) Coast (P5)
(P7a) P8 (P7a) P8 (P7a) P8 TDS
(g/l)

Fig 5. Climate change scenarios

Results: Climate change scenarios
2040 Forecasting

2100 Forecasting

Fig 6. Indicators results for aquifer salinization

 Discussion: water supply implications

Table 1. Adaptation strategies for coastal water supply

Future implications on coastal Adaptation strategies for coastal populations

populations water supply
Structural solution
(resistence)
1. Salinity increasing in current and 1. Rainwater storage (coast is the
future supply zones. aridest zone).
2. Consider a desalinization process. 2. Brackish water use b,c.
3. Important aquifer thickness 3. Desalinization? How complex? b,c.
depletion. 4. Agriculture compatible with
4. In sum, an increment in the cost brackish-salty water b.
of water supply. 5. Artificial recharge d,e
6. Aquifer protection barries d,e
Non-structural solution
((adaptation)
1. Management plans a.
2. Buffer zones and planned urban
zonesa.
3. Reference terms for developing the
coastal zone.
4. Exists a lack of development on non-
structural solutions

a. Garmestani et al. (2019). https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2019.00410

b. Alameddine et al. (2018) https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2017.1416441
c. Ragan et al. (2000). https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900324
d. Zheng et al. (2020) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124831
e. Hussain et al. (2019) https://doi.org/10.3390/w11122467
 Discussion: On pursuit of adaptation
Resilience and adaptation
a. Resilience involves the capability of the
population to buffer, resist or adapt to
these future scenarios.
b. Currently, only has been studied as
ecological resilience (environmental
approach). AT= astronomic tide
FR = Coastal spring
P = 24 hrs pumping
c. The problem is more complex than H = hurricanes
SS = strom surge
ecological implications, considering
social and economic topics. In sum,
these coupled variables define a
Fig 8. Preliminary ecological resilience calculation
robust concept o resilience in the
Fig 7. Desirable resilience framework
ecosystem.
(Vázquez-González et al 2021)
 Preliminary conclusions

1. Undoubtedly the coastal aquifer of NWYC will experiment with an increase in the salinity and a reduction in the

freshwater thickness. A near horizon (2040) will expect a brackish wedge of 10 km from the coast, and with more

uncertainty, a brackish wedge between 11 and 18.5 km for the far horizon (2100).

2. Overall, climate change scenarios tested show a consistent effect in aquifers on the near horizon. As opposed,

recharge reduction shows less impact than sea-level rise on the far horizon.

3. Numerical analysis suggests that the coastal population must consider using engineering and management politics

to adapt to these future conditions. However, it highlights that these strategies consider an increment in the cost

of water supply in coastal populations.

4. It is important to study resilience and adaptation of coastal population, including ecological approach and social and

economic approach (multidisciplinary approach).

 Acknowledgements

Organismo de Cuenca
Península de Yucatán

Cesar Canul-Macario: CCanulM@iingen.unam.mx

Paulo Salles: PSallesA@iingen.unam.mx
Jose A. Hernández-Espriú: ahespriu@unam.mx
Roger Pacheco Castro: RPachecoC@iingen.unam.mx