To what extent can urban design of bushfire-prone regions in Australia reduce the impact on

property damage in a future of intensified bushfire magnitude and frequency as a result of

anthropogenic climate change?

Figure 1: Neighbourhood boasts revised urban design aimed to withstand

bushfires. (“Subdivision and urban planning”, n.d.)

Abstract
(132 words)
Australian settlement planning and construction processes are in need of alteration as its
climate changes and tends towards generating conditions opportune for catastrophic bushfires,
as was demonstrated by the penetration of these to urban areas in the 2019-2020 event. Initial
research found that localised implementation of defendable spaces, a stretch of land
circumscribing a building where vegetation density is deliberately eased, helped lessen property
loss. After analysing an assortment of Australian mass media, this report highlights that most
news articles could not represent a topic of this complexity in a way that assured accuracy.
Specific routes for urban design were only offered by two sources and likewise, these were
deemed the most accurate whilst others were devalued by bias and the incapacity to list
information that adequately responded to this task’s inquiry.
 Literature review

Human intervention in minimising the losses incurred by bushfires can be summarised by:
prescribed burning as means for fuel load reduction, sustainability legislation to limit the
progression of climate change which in turn exacerbates bushfire threat and lastly, urban
design. As intervals whereby prescribed burning can be safely practised become shorter
(Burrows & McCaw, 2013) and the reality that improvements instituted by lowered Australian
greenhouse gas emissions are gradual leaving at-risk communities unprotected, updating such
a community’s urban design will make it resilient against bushfires (March & Gonzalez-
Mathiesen, 2014). Effective urban systems are ones that account for a settlement’s interaction
with different bushfire propagations and apply this understanding to the construction of rural-
urban interfaces (March, Holland & Harwood, 2011).

Planning an urban layout is location-sensitive and so must accurately reflect spatial factors like
regional climate and include empirical and scientific knowledge of random behaviours as is
required for fire-spotting (O’Neill & Handmer, 2012). Local topography also produces a multitude
of different heat transfer mechanisms responsible for modifying bushfire spread (Khan, et al.,
2019). A study, examining past disastrous bushfires in Australia, ascertained that where design
initiatives (such as the orientation of a neighbourhood’s homes and amenities) were lacking, the
likelihood of residential asset destruction decreases linearly with distance from uninterrupted
bushland (Chen & McAneney, 2004). Figure 2 illustrates this negative tendency:

Figure 2: Cumulative distribution function showing how the sample space of

homes destroyed vary with respect to the distance from the bushland fringe.
(Chen & McAneney, 2004)
The graphical representation confirms that whilst the Como-Jannali (1994) trend is concordant
with that of earlier bushfires, markedly different curves like the one portrayed by Duffy can exist
due to situational factors. For comparison, the midpoint of this frequency model indicates that
50% of the properties devastated at Duffy were within 145 metres of the forest margin; triple the
approximate range of the other three bushfires at this percentile (Chen & McAneney, 2004).
This significant bushfire ingress speaks to subpar collective involvement in suppression
activities which if conducted throughout an event can save more houses (Ramsay, McArthur &
Dowling, 1996) and the high flammability of surrounding pine populations (Ellair & Platt, 2012).
Clearly, external influences (vegetation, terrain and developed area characteristics) of a
particular environment easily correlate with stresses inflicted by bushfires on urban centres.

The enhanced greenhouse effect induced by human behaviour ostensibly increases the
probability of ideal (warmer and drier) bushfire conditions across Australia’s south-east and
inexplicably alters ENSO, a regulator of nationwide weather (Chen & McAneney, 2010).
Bushfire hazard metrics like the Fire Danger Index (FDI) concentrate on prevailing weather
conditions to operationally declare bushfire incidence (Hennessy, et al., 2005). An investigation
compiled observations of 79 Australian bushfires occurring between 1939-2009 to secondarily
review current severity systems (FDI), ultimately establishing the connection between higher
orders of FDI and increased property loss as strongly proportional to one another (Harris, et al.,
2012). Figures 3 and 4 implicitly support each other in that they jointly evidence how
anthropogenic climate change is aggravating the toll on property.

Figure 3: atmospheric-climatic hybrid models, namely CCAM (Mark2) and CCAM

(Mark3), outline projections for the mean annual number of days where FDI is classified
as “very high” or “extreme” for the years 2020 and 2050 across 17 sites. Note
“present” is defined as 2005. (Hennessy, et al., 2005)
 Figure 4: Rise in annually-compounded amount of structures (residential homes,
commercial buildings, churches, libraries, etc.) made defunct by bushfires from 1 July,
1960 to 2009. The graph does not adjust for increased at-risk homes due to urban
expansion. (Chen, McAneney, 2010)

The Black Saturday bushfires are conveniently trapped between the overlapping of timelines
(figure 4 concludes in 2009 and figure 3 begins in 2005). This implies that because of an overall
increase in the average quantity of anomalous FDI rating days each year in Victorian towns, the
Black Saturday disaster was inherently more likely to transpire, thus revealing the link between
changing climate and amplified bushfires.

As these rare conflagrations become common, improving the separation of houses (thereby
lowering bushfire risk) is the most elementary urban design response because the organisation
of distances and spaces between properties is relatively open-ended (Kornakova & March,
2016). Historically, burnt structures often appear in compact street-like rows, suggesting that a
clustered arrangement of buildings facilitates house-to-house ignition (Chen & McAneney,
2004). A research effort that focused on the 2009 Bendigo bushfire discovered a statistically
profound relationship between the site coverage1 of “lots” and fire penetration, identifying that
untouched lots had a developed area in excess of 37.2% (March, Holland & Harwood, 2011).
Defendable spaces are the designated lands encompassing a building that are intended to
isolate it from ember onslaught and the fire front, also serving as a buffer and a point where
firefighting may take place (Kornakova & March, 2016). Organic content situate in these areas is
treated as a potential fuel source and continuously managed (Kornakova & March, 2016),
forming 3 distincts settings as described in figure 5:

1 The section of a property reserved for buildings and structures; measured as a percentage
 Figure 5: Simplified delineation of the components seen in a property that
incorporates defendable space. (developed from Kornakova & March, 2016)

Defendable space is merely one brand of urban design that is recognised to be a successful
safeguard against increasingly unpredictable Australian bushfires by the CFA (“What Is
Defendable Space”, n.d.), though feasibility of widespread application when considering
landscape and property ownership limitations remains to be seen.

Investigation Body

Mass Media
Communication pathways accessed by smaller parties for the purpose of disseminating diverse
information to larger groups is fundamental to mass media. Up to and around last century’s turn,
there has been a surge in unique channels of broadcast in addition to the traditional
transmissions of information (newspaper, telegraph, radio and television). These newer
methods are the result of technology’s sustained evolution, with the internet epitomising the
achievement of worldwide connectivity. Popularity of online platforms like Yahoo and facebook
herald digital media as a global hub for distributing and receiving information. It is this capacity
to reach a large audience that enables individuals of contrasting views to involuntarily or
otherwise colour the interpretations of media-consumers. Naturally, controversy and skepticism
have become abundant, further hindering society’s progress in tackling current affairs.

Media Bias
Media bias is the inclination for reporters and articles to skew realistic details in a way that is
supportive of their own values, thereby contravening respectable journalism. A researcher might
intentionally do this to express the political standings of authoritative figures in an attempt to
manipulate public opinion (propaganda), usually incentivised by funding, contract extensions
and other benefits. Media bias also becomes apparent when there is an automatic leaning
towards certain qualities from random stimuli (stories and events), likely justified by the
researcher’s culture, education and worldly perception. It is typified in publications as the
rejection of sound findings and inclusion of bogus ones to “substantiate” the author’s views, the
use of persuasive phrasing for strictly objective matters and the attempt to single-handedly
convey ideas from unique demographics without sufficient collaboration.

Objective Facts vs. Subjective Opinions

An objective statement is verifiable through the actions of others because it maintains a firm
factual basis, whereas a subjective viewpoint is affected by preconceived notions and so can
never fully capture a foundational truth. If these subjective and unbalanced opinions are actively
disguised as irrefutable facts to then be announced by mass media (for instance, overblown
headlines might read: “Gaming addiction soon to ruin the lives of millions”), the distinction
between reputable and biased sources becomes obscure.

Balanced Views
When a media topic is confronted from and conveyed by all perspectives without prejudicial
behaviours, it is said to have balanced views. In practice, they allow all objective information to
be precisely represented so that audiences might freely form their own understanding of the
subject. If equal value is allocated to each view in every circumstance even when stakeholders
are disparate in expertise, “false balance” is produced - a result when sides of an argument
contain evidence out of proportion with one another albeit receive similar media coverage. This
spreads misinformation which, once interacted with by the public, casts doubt over conclusions
to matters that have overall scientific agreement.

Mass Media Overview

The Conversation
Residents and architects reconsider building designs following bushfires
This article immediately calls upon CSIRO expert on critical infrastructure design for bushfires,
Justin Leonard, to establish that housing will never reach a fire-proof standard. To better fortify a
home’s fire-resistance requires insights into the ways in which physical aspects of the building
will respond to bushfire hazards. Zoning systems such as the bushfire attack level (BAL) help
categorise sites according to the risks posed, efficiently informing what design restrictions and
solutions are needed to maintain safety. Simon Anderson, civil engineer, insists that durable
options are available (entirely concrete abodes), however these affordable layouts are devoid of
expensive aesthetic quality. Bunkers offer protection and are portrayed by residents like India
MacDonnell as a venue for “retreat” whenever mortality is threatened. The article concludes that
the proliferation of more damaging bushfires will naturally encourage innovative precautions to
feature in housing designs.

ABC News
Fires bring home climate-driven urgency of rethinking where we live - and how
By associating climate change with increasing volatility of bushfire patterns, this article argues
the importance of location and urban planning for future communities. It declares that in 2019,
Australia had undergone a year of atypical weather: daily temperature highs and recorded
rainfall were respectively 2.09℃ above and 40% below the longstanding mean. The article
emphasises that project leaders can address climatic issues when there is thorough reform of
settlement design such that it seeks to gradually evacuate citizens from climate-affected areas,
grant funding to environmentally-aware groups and involve the united action of multiple states to
model ideal urban principles (communal green spaces).

ArchitectureAU
90% of buildings in bushfire-prone areas aren’t built to survive fires. A national policy can start
to fix this
This article claims that while adequate attention is being devoted to the consequences around
bushfire events and land-use processes (e.g. the Royal Commision into National Natural
Disaster Arrangements’ recent report entailing 80 proposals for mitigating risks), the task of
instituting a consolidated urban growth plan has been overlooked. Appropriate communication
of fire threats according to the region of real estate to interested buyers, recommendations on
how new measures apply to already-built structures and routine reconsiderations of the National
Construction Code are methods that need to be adopted. The article stresses how bringing
together many adaptation and planning policies can cause inconsistencies in design and
location preference for envisioned towns, presumably leaving inhabitants vulnerable to different
levels of risk. By acknowledging the influence of climate change on Australian bushfire
behaviour, the article, through the voice of the NNDA panel, promotes the role of urban design
through policy amendments in minimising property losses.

SBS News
Busting the myths about bushfire-safe homes
The common assumption that overcoming bushfire risk must signify expensive investments or
reinforced concrete shelters is refuted by this article. Dr Weir, specialist in coordinating
architectural plans for bushfire-prone areas, mentions that bushfires seldom meet the thermal
thresholds to burn a house, and that it is the house’s internal components (set alight by drifting
embers) that cause this destructive outcome. He advocates the use of non-combustive
construction materials like rammed-earth as a shielding mechanism from ember attack and a
way to increase energy efficiency. The article views urban design as a promising solution and
reasons that whilst retrofitting an existing site to accommodate bushfire presence is costly, the
incorporation of protective design conventions into future building activities would be affordable.

Guardian Australia
Australia’s sever bushfire season was predicted and will be repeated, inquiry told
This article refers to the Bureau of Meteorology to confirm that the drastic conditions reflected
by the 2019-2020 bushfires are soon to be the norm - climate models point towards exponential
heating. It affirms that dependence on past experience and older observations in predicting
current bushfire risk and effects is futile in the face of worsening natural disasters. Conflicting
political attitudes such as Scott Morrison’s inability to regard climate emergencies are
preventing acceptance of valid research findings (weather-based data anticipated the recent
bushfires months in advance) and cooperative efforts that could save properties. The article
then quotes Dr Ryan Crompton, expert in quantitative climate risk analysis, asserting “better
urban planning could play a role in property loss” notwithstanding “a heating climate”.

Results

The Conversation
This article was released in 2021, likely a publication intended to address the recent devastation
caused by bushfires, making it extremely current and valid. The information from this source is
centred around locating alternatives for housing design and placement in rural contexts where
bushfire influence is set to increase due to climate change, connecting it with both halves of the
inquiry question and sustaining its validity. Since the piece originates from a media outlet, it
omits technical jargon and massive lengths of text so that the broader public, its targeted
audience, may easily understand the problems at hand. This simplicity is not to detract from the
article’s credibility because its parent organisation, The Conversation, is a not-for-profit media
outlet whose interest lies in converting formal research into a consumer-friendly format. All three
authors maintain directorial positions over their institutions or possess doctoral degrees and are
professors in fields relating to Earth System science. Will Steffen has assisted with several
climate-wary articles that too explain the environmental consequences of human activity,
proving that he and the other two contributors are trustworthy authors. The statistics provided
are those of their own investigations and so once the research paper entitled “Apocalypse Now”
is clicked, the reader is treated to a comprehensive study undertaken with end-references to
scientific literature. Therefore, the source is accurate, through strong reliability and validity.

ABC News
Issued by the ABC, a news corporation that strives to elevate the views of the mainstream but is
periodically criticised for “Journalists… almost 5 times more likely to be Greens supporters than
the average voter” as divulged by a 2013 survey, the article automatically decreased in
reliability. Made available in early 2020, this entry was composed during the bushfire season it
was reporting, allowing for it to be chronologically appropriate. The source provided specificity in
that shortcomings in a property’s design were discussed, conveyed the dependence of building
prerequisites on geographic bushfire risk and offered worthwhile directions for cheaper housing
plans. Hence, the inquiry question’s concern for revised approaches for protection of housing
integrity is satisfied. This article, similar to scientific papers used in the literature review, valued
the implementation of the BAL framework in governing the preliminary stages of urban
development which increases accuracy through reliability. Mim Cook, the author, lacks a
rigorous academic background and occupies the role of regional radio station producer for
lesser towns in Victoria. By quoting and paraphrasing the relevant expertise of Justin Leonard
and Simon Anderson, Mim circumvents her inexperience and compensates for the validity lost.
Overall, the piece is moderately valid whilst highly reliable.

ArchitectureAu
This media page was created in late 2020 by ArchitectureAu, an ostensibly “trusted source” for
news and project assessments (as is self-proclaimed on their website), which indicates a 6-
month duration following the bushfires for deliberation on structural standards progress,
furthering validity. Even though the 4 writers have received a thorough education in the
discipline of Built Environment and are qualified to represent such issues, none have prepared
any other articles pertaining to this area recently, diminishing the reliability of findings in this
publication. It condenses what would otherwise be a lengthy dissertation into digestible snippets
of numerical data and lucid explanations, but has a persuasive register (high modality and
second person transitions) to convince readers that immediate action is required. This
awareness combined with the article’s and the bushfire royal commission’s shared reasoning
that nationally-rallied support to establish extensive change is paramount in saving properties
demonstrates reliability. Also, all profound statements are credited with corresponding sources
through in-text hyperlinking. For these reasons, the page is somewhat valid but exceedingly
reliable.

SBS News
According to “mediabiasfactcheck.com”, the SBS factually relays information despite its editorial
cohort being skewed to one extreme of the political spectrum, insinuating that whilst prejudice
might not be obvious, it nonetheless persists. The article was last updated in 2016, impairing its
validity as it cannot be appreciated as a contemporary (within 5 years of a past catastrophic
bushfire - it is 7 years post Black Saturday) entry. It explored the importance of selecting non-
flammable materials to fabricate bushfire-defensive houses and use of external features
(sprinklers affixed across built-up spaces), but fails to recognise climate change as the cause of
this design transformation, so it only partly clarifies this task’s inquiry. The author is Kerrie
Armstrong, a media relations and communications manager who although seasoned in creating
government, print and digital content, has minimal association with performing primary
investigations and so is less reputable, hence limiting validity. Unaccompanied by a referencing
scheme that upholds various claims (viz. The piece’s second sentence), the readership are
forced to believe the assertions made by an already unsuitable and inexpert author, even if the
information supplied is transparent and not loaded. It can thus be argued that the article boasts
poor validity and reliability.

Guardian Australia
This source was presented in mid-2020 to the Guardian Australia, a news provider accredited
by the United Nations to be accurate and dependable, attesting to its validity not only via the
article’s currency, but through its affiliation with an approved media outlet. In criticising Scott
Morrison’s dismissal of anthropogenic climate change, the page shows itself to be keenly aware
of enhanced bushfire conditions and the resultant hazards directed to existing and planned
neighbourhoods. This brings together the two topics necessary to fulfilling the inquiry question,
advancing validity. The piece cites Risk Frontiers leader, Dr Ryan Crompton, summarising: “He
said that… 80% (houses lost) were within 100m (of bushland)”. Such a discovery is confirmed in
figure 2 of this report, accentuating the reliability of the article to introduce well-founded
evidence for its audience. Calla Wahlquist is a Walkley award-winning journalist whose focus is
traceable to environment reporting amongst others, placing her reliability below that of scholarly
researchers’ but above a part-time editor’s. This source can be thought as one that entertains a
meritorious level of authenticity, and therefore validity and reliability.

Conclusion

The selection of media examined proved there were disparate levels of accuracy when such
sources remarked on the viability of current and future urban design. Each admitted that some
type of housing adaptation was needed but the suggestions as to what precise reform to
architectural conventions should occur accounted for this accuracy divide. Articles weaker in
accuracy resorted to eyewitness accounts for corroboration of a solution’s efficacy or could not
decisively recommend any one solution. Besides neglecting necessary scientific research
methodologies, these publications were often authored by a single unqualified individual,
contained promotional material and were in critical error when they failed to discuss human-
related climatic influences. The Conversation’s and Guardian Australia's exemplary standards in
candid and correct journalism aside, Australian mass media can in no way embody the depth
and accuracy of urban preventative measures as is achieved through academic scrutiny.

Discussion

Influences to results and conclusions

The flaws associated with Australian media can be ascribed to the inability of lax mainstream
authors to exclusively pursue and communicate the topics abundant with scientific discourse. In
this investigation, news outlets commonly represented specific matters that lacked expert
analysis, and so whenever sweeping claims were made, they sought evidence from accurate
though unrelated sources to purport legitimacy. The SBS News piece illustrates this by
dedicating more time to explaining the difficulty in arranging a coherent urban design fabric
whilst only briefly considering actual bushfire-resistant options (that would be of greater use to
its audience). This produces an impenetrable vagueness, as the issue these articles are
sensitive towards has only amassed attention in recent years. For instance, the Bushfire
Management Overlay, a planning control that systematically models such hazards so that land
development prioritises human and property welfare, was formalised in 2011. Similarly, the
relative newness of the task’s inquiry is visible through the sparseness of its scientific literature
preceding the 21st Century, suggesting that foundations for valid knowledge in this area are just
being laid. Accordingly, the same SBS News publication could be found devoid of factual papers
and reports, instead depending on the opinions of professionals, which are neither detailed nor
peer-reviewed. Thus, the accuracy of each source is decided by the way experimental
uncertainties innate to this primary research are carried on and exacerbated by the journalist’s
attempts to reconcile these findings with the argument they wish to convey.
Improvements to research process
The research approach taken to create the literature review was one that preferred qualitative
data and so a foremost means to increase effectiveness would be either to algorithmically or
manually accumulate then interpret statistics concerning property endurance across spatial and
temporal parameters. This extended investigation would require either computational software
or several collaborators as well as access to the archives of government agencies like the
Australian Bureau of Statistics. The undertaking, predicated on individual case studies, would
provide direct evaluations of how settlement adaptation techniques like defendable spaces and
greenbelt configurations might protect structures from bushfire pressure.

In order to further understanding of Australian mass media and ultimately improve the reliability
of the report, other disputed issues either within or beyond the environmental scope must be
explored. This would also involve the inspection of each broadcasting company’s reputation
through objective readings of secondary sources from trusted domains (sciencedirect, link
springer, etc.). Comparing a stronger variety and quantity of topical articles to their academic
counterparts would reveal strains of bias within the articles’ news outlets and be sufficient in
numbers to estimate how often this bias was expressed. Moreover, incidences of false balance
can too be detected if the declarations of certain investigative journalism are advocated by their
organisation but ignored across the scientific community.

Locating worldwide examples of human response to increased bushfire longevity and

occurrence via adjusted construction protocols could serve as a reference point for national
efforts. The severity of wildfires in California can be compared with their employed design
precautions to determine whether current Australian attitudes (both mainstream and scholastic)
towards bushfire threat on rural settlements are exaggerated or understated.

Future research guided by findings

The report has emphasised that whilst the transition to more protective modes of urban design
as a passive control for bushfires remains unopposed by the media, logistical aspects to allow
for these intended development patterns are scarcely examined. The ABC, due to its skewed
proportion of Greens followers, might contradict fair evidence that a district’s supply of suitable
real estate is being overwhelmed by consumer demand in order to endorse the success of
urban design in mitigating bushfire influence. Future research could also encompass how the
tension between political jurisdictions surrounding climate change affects rural bushfire-risk
policies or the potential of urban design to be used in conjunction with fuel-reduction burning to
strengthen a built-up setting’s support network. The public’s reception of concerns portrayed by
mass media and their subsequent actions were not looked into. Blog sites, chat rooms,
podcasts and videos are the social signatures of individuals that describe their impressions on
current affairs. Analysing this subjective commentary and comparing it with that of mass media
content can holistically show whether a person’s scientific awareness (engrained through
educational means) is being overridden by news corporations.
Predict the effects on the Earth’s resources and/or environment if the concepts of Earth
and Environmental Science were more widely understood and applied.
Greater recognition of Earth and Environmental Science concepts would, for the common
person, see improvements to the ecological footprint of daily activity and, for leadership roles,
enable resource conservation. Such an understanding would clarify urban design as a
temporary solution against the hostile conditions of a world transformed by climate change.
Once decision-makers realise how increasing prevalence and intensity of bushfires is linked to
the industrial and economic behaviours they once condoned, these traditions might be reduced
or cancelled and more attention would be devoted to the recommendations of scientists,
predictive models and other informants. If humanity can correct its unsustainable practices and
begin to respect the living world on which it is so reliant, perhaps this same kindness may be
reciprocated to establish a tolerance of the environment with society.

Word Count: 3847

(Image captions and subheadings are ignored. Calculated by paragraph)
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Appendix

The Conversation
Barbara Norman, Peter Newman and Peter Steffen
Fires bring home climate-driven urgency of rethinking where we live - and how
24/02/2021
Article retrieved from: https://theconversation.com/fires-bring-home-climate-driven-urgency-of-
rethinking-where-we-live-and-how-155044

ABC News
Mim Cook
Residents and architects reconsider building designs following bushfires
19/02/2020
Article retrieved from:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-22/bushfire-bunker-fireproofing-houses/11885578

ArchitectureAU
Mark Maund, Kim Maund, Sueanne Ware and Thayaparan Gajendran
90% of buildings in bushfire-prone areas aren’t built to survive fires. A national policy can start
to fix this
06/11/2020
Article retrieved from:
https://architectureau.com/articles/90-of-buildings-in-bushfire-prone-areas-arent-built-to-survive-
fires-a-national-policy-can-start-to-fix-this/

SBS News
Kerrie Armstrong
Busting the myths about bushfire-safe homes
03/02/2016
Article retrieved from:
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/busting-the-myths-about-bushfire-safe-homes

Guardian Australia
Calla Wahlquist
Australia’s severe bushfire season was predicted and will be repeated, inquiry told
25/05/2020
Article retrieved from:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/25/australias-severe-bushfire-season-
was-predicted-and-will-be-repeated-inquiry-told